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Astros 2025: A not-so-quick view of the starting pitching

Folks who have been following this series examining the Astros’ 2024 results and the 2025 expectations position by position may be asking themselves at this point….What happened to the Outfield review?

The answer is that Chipalatta will postpone that review, waiting for a move we think (Hope? pray?) will happen relative to fortifying the starting outfield. For the time being, we will run the review of the starting pitching and then the bullpen.

So, first a look back….

2024 By the Numbers

Here are the stats for the Astros starting staff in 2024 (stats are combined):

  • 59 Wins (T-4th in the AL)
  • 47 Losses (2nd least)
  • 3.81 ERA (T-5th)
  • .233 BA against (2nd)
  • .305 OBP against (8th)
  • .685 OPS against (4th)
  • 1.24 WHIP (T-8th)
  • 880.2 IP (4th)
  • 9.06 Ks/ 9 IP (2nd)
  • 3.33 Walks/ 9 IP (3rd Most)

Those are solid numbers and somewhat miraculous, considering all that happened to the starting rotation in 2024.

Consider this:

  • Justin Verlander would only start about half the season (17 games) and would be bad (5.48 ERA)
  • Cristian Javier would be above average (3.89 ERA) but would only make 7 starts before having season-ending surgery
  • J.P. France after a solid rookie season, would make five bad starts (7.46 ERA), before being sent down and eventually having season-ending surgery
  • Luis Garcia would not come back from his surgery as expected
  • Lance McCullers would not come back from surgery (as not expected).
  • The Astros would be relying on Hunter Brown (a poor 5.09 ERA in 2023), Ronel Blanco (7 MLB starts before 2024), Spencer Arrighetti (MLB Debut), Blair Henley (MLB Debut), Jake Bloss (MLB debut) and Shawn Dubin (1 start before 2024) for 57% of their starts in 2024.

As things stand right now a potential 5 man rotation could look like this – with each pitcher’ s 2024 stats shown…..

Stat Ronel Blanco Framber Valdez Hunter Brown Spencer Arrighetti Hayden Wesneski
W-L 13-6 15-7 11-9 7-13 3-6
ERA 2.80 2.91 3.49 4.53 3.86
WHIP 1.088 1.106 1.271 1.407 1.138
BAA .190 .221 .242 .250 .215
OBPA .273 .287 .310 .334 .279
OPSA .627 .610 .667 .758 .671
IP 167.1 176.1 170 145 67.2
Ks/9 IP 8.9 8.6 9.5 10.6 8.9
BBs/9 IP 3.7 2.8 3.2 4.0 2.8

The Wild Cards

The Astros have almost as many good pitchers in this wild card category as they do in the top five above. Their availability varies from pitcher to pitcher:

  • Luis Garcia – Garcia was very good in the 2022 championship season (15-8, 3.82 ERA). In 2023 he made his last appearance on May 1st before being shut down and eventually having Tommy John surgery. He made it all the way back to a minor league rehab around the end of June in 2024, made two starts and then after not bouncing back well was shut down. The question is when/if he will return in 2025 and if he does how they will use him.
  • Lance McCullers Jr. – When healthy (as ghoulish as it sounds – those words should be carved in his tomb stone) LMJ has been very good (career – 49-32 – 3.48 ERA). But the last time he pitched for the Astros was when he came back from injury to pitch well in the Astros 2022 championship drive ending up with a dead wing in the World Series. After trying non-surgery techniques over the winter and through Spring Training he ended up having his flexor tendon repaired and a bone spur removed in June 2023. Since then, it has been a series of time and distance – throwing 20 pitches on flat ground from 50 feet – tossing 15 fastballs from the front of the mound, etc. But no appearances in either minor league or major league games. Five days ago SI was reporting that he was pitching off a mound with hopes of making it back early this season. The question is when/if he will return in 2025 and if he does how they will use him.
  • J.P. France – France was a big contributor as a rookie in 2023 (11-6, 3.83 ERA). He was awful at the beginning of 2024 and after being sent to the minors, had surgery to repair a torn right shoulder capsule. He’s working his way back within the early end of a 12-14 month recovery period. He is saying all the right things about feeling no pain and throwing from farther and harder in his rehab, but…. The question is when/if he will return in 2025 and if he does how they will use him.
  • Cristian Javier – Javier who was a revelation in the 2022 championship run and more pedestrian in 2023, started the 2024 season solidly in the rotation for seven starts. He went down in late April with neck discomfort, which ended up with Tommy John surgery in early June. Based on the extension Javier signed before the 2023 season he is due to receive $10.4 million in 2025. There is no guarantee that Javier will even pitch in 2025, though it is usually a 12 month recovery period and so if he was on schedule he might appear sometime late in the season, but…. The question is when/if he will return in 2025 and if he does how they will use him.
  • Jose Urquidy – Urquidy who had TJ surgery the same day Javier did was outrighted rather than offered arbitration. Right now, he is a free agent, so if he recovered in 2025, he might be available to play in 2025, but whether that would be with the Astros is an open question.

40-Man Roster

The 40-man roster has a couple of names worth considering, but after you drop someone like 29 y.o. Shawn Dubin coming off a 4.92 ERA year at AAA or former top prospect Forrest Whitley who seems to have moved away from trying to be a starter in the majors.  Colton Gordon (8-2 – 3.94 ERA at AAA/ 8th round 2021 draft) and Ryan Gusto (8-6 – 3.70 ERA at AAA/ 11th round 2019 draft) did well after being moved up to a hitter’s league and probably have the most likely chance to fill in that starting rotation, if one of the five above falters or becomes injured.

Top Prospects

  • Colton Gordon (#12) was covered above.
  • A.J. Blubaugh (#10 / 7th round 2022 draft) could be fighting for a roster spot along with Gordon and Gusto after a solid 2024 season at AAA (12-4/ 3.83 ERA).
  • Miguel Ullola (#8) was recently called out as the Astros top international prospect. He has the big arm (11.7 Ks/ 9 IP at AA) and he has the big control problems (5.2 walks/ 9 IP). And he may end up as a reliever.
  • Anderson Brito (#9 – signed out of Bolivia?) – Has pitched well but is only 20 y.o. and has only pitched up to A ball to date. Give him time.
  • Jose Fleury (#11 – signed out of the Dominican Republic) – Has also pitched solid up to AA ball, but it is unclear whether he is headed for life as a starter or reliever.
  • There are so many other pitchers on the top 30 prospects list – lets jump over to look at if anyone stands out at AAA or AA.

2024 AAA

Besides Gordon, Gusto and Blubaugh, every other pitcher who started 10 games or more for the Space Cowboys in 2024 was unimpressive. Blair Henley, who infamously gave up 5 runs while recording 1 out with the Astros back when pitchers were falling like flies recorded a 5.51 ERA at AAA. Misael Tamarez (6.46 ERA), Rhett Kouba (5.95 ERA), and Eric Lauer (5.09 ERA) were also not too impressive in their starts.  

2024 AA

Besides Ullola and Fluery discussed above a couple performances stand out at Corpus Christi. Jake Bloss (1.61 ERA) who made it to the Astros but then was traded to Toronto in the Yusei Kikuchi trade. Joey Mancini pitched well at A+ Asheville and then even better (1.88 ERA) in 18 appearances – 9 starts at AA CC.

The bottom line is that Dana Brown has to really use his swami hat with the starting pitching in 2025. Will any of the top pitchers regress or get injured? Which if any of the injured will return and produce? Which of the top AAA pitchers will be ready to contribute? Does he need to go out and find another arm or two just in case? He will be earning his salary and more in 2025.

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19 responses to “Astros 2025: A not-so-quick view of the starting pitching”

  1. Dan, I look at our rotation (5 man version) and have no idea what to expect beyond Framber and I’m still not 100% sure he won’t get traded if Dana gets an offer he’s hoping for.

    But somehow I’m not all that concerned. It seems we always have been able to cobble together a group that can get enough outs to keep us in games. But, is Hunter for real long term? I think so, but I need to see a full year of it. Can Arrighetti take another step forward, avoiding those total blow outs? I don’t expect Blanco to be quite as solid as he was in 2024. I just want him to carry a load and stay healthy. I’m optimistic about Wesneski. He’s obviously happy to be back home.

    Beyond that, I sure like Gusto. Except for an 8 run thrashing he took one night in August, he didn’t have a bad start from June on. As you said, it’s a tough league to pitch successfully in.

    I don’t really know enough about the other young guys to comment.

    If we get Lance back, I really think the pen is the best place for him. We’ve heard so little about Garcia, it makes me wonder. But a healthy Luis would be a huge boost because this group will be better off if we’ve got the ability to go to a six man rotation. And I’ve seen Urquidy working his butt off daily on Instagram. I sure hope there’s a gentleman’s agreement to bring him back into the fold.

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  2. Dan, I look at our rotation (5 man version) and have no idea what to expect beyond Framber and I’m still not 100% sure he won’t get traded if Dana gets an offer he’s hoping for.

    But somehow I’m not all that concerned. It seems we always have been able to cobble together a group that can get enough outs to keep us in games. But, is Hunter for real long term? I think so, but I need to see a full year of it. Can Arrighetti take another step forward, avoiding those total blow outs? I don’t expect Blanco to be quite as solid as he was in 2024. I just want him to carry a load and stay healthy. I’m optimistic about Wesneski. He’s obviously happy to be back home.

    Beyond that, I sure like Gusto. Except for an 8 run thrashing he took one night in August, he didn’t have a bad start from June on. As you said, it’s a tough league to pitch successfully in.

    I don’t really know enough about the other young guys to comment.

    If we get Lance back, I really think the pen is the best place for him. We’ve heard so little about Garcia, it makes me wonder. But a healthy Luis would be a huge boost because this group will be better off if we’ve got the ability to go to a six man rotation. And I’ve seen Urquidy working his butt off daily on Instagram. I sure hope there’s a gentleman’s agreement to bring him back into the fold.

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    • Nice thoughts daveb

      I really think Hunter found himself after that poor start. I worry about Blanco because I always think they will lay off that changeup – but he had good stuff.

      Wesneski had good numbers except for W-L which I don’t judge on. I guess I always think the pitching coaches are saying – hey if we have him throw X pitch half as much and double up on his Y he will really be something.

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  4. I saw a post elsewhere that the six highest paid pitchers in 2024 accounted for $233M in salary and 21 total wins (Scherzer, deGrom, Verlander, Cole, Corbin, and Strasburg).

    Elsewhere, a number of front offices believe the Dodgers had a deal worked out with Roki Sasaki before they were allowed to negotiate. You may remember the Braves got penalized for cheating in international signings about a decade ago and lost 13 prospects as well as their GM being banned for life for it. Don’t worry, MLB has already announced they investigated and found no wrongdoing by the Dodgers.

    We’re in an era where you need quantity with just enough quality. Houston needs to hope that Blanco, Brown, and Arrighetti stay healthy. Framber has thrown a lot when you consider the added stress of postseason ball his entire career so we should have concern there as well. If we get strong seasons from those four we could be in really good shape.

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  8. Tough night for the Texans. Had they played a cleaner game they might have been able to point at the refs for screwing up their chances in Kansas City.

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    • I agree but there were definitely some questionable and a couple of down right bad calls. The worst part of the game was having to see Taylor “not so swift” every time Kelce made a catch. The Texans are improving and I look forward to them playing next year.

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  9. The refs bad calls were not the only cause for the Texans losing but it certainly cut into their margin of error.

    You have to protect your QB better than that and a team that had a very good special teams all year – failed in all phases of the kicking game.

    As usual their defense was very good except in covering Kelce.

    To me the Bills best chance of beating the Chiefs is to break up Kelce and Swift to lower the financial gain for the league of the two being together

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    • The only chance the Texans have to beat the Chiefs is to have an offensive line that is a lot better than the one they have. They have to protect their QB a lot better and handle the blitzes better to give their assets in the backfield and on the outside time to get open. Their O-line sucked all year and it starts with their LT.

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  10. Getting back to the pitching, not trading Valdez give the Astros their #1 pitcher for 2025 and then he walks and you got nothing for him and, when 2026 rolls around, you have a rotation without him and no gain from his exit.

    This also leaves the Astros with Valdez on the mound for 1 year, with an outfield of Meyers, Chas and another guy along with the fight to get under the penalties for going over the luxury tax line for the second year in a row.

    The alternative is to trade him to someone who will give you a return similar to the return they got for Tucker who will provide an outfielder who can hit and another pitcher for the future. The return for Tucker was your starting third baseman, your current #1 prospect and a young pitcher with 5 years of control.

    There is really no reason for me to go into the rest of the rotation, as Dan has already done a great job of covering the options. My hidden gem for the future is Blubaugh. But, I am not a scout. I was a Boy Scout and I did stay at a Holiday Inn once. There is that.

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