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Astros’ 2025: A quick view of the third base position

Ignoring the rumors that the Astros are re-signing a spurned Alex Bregman and listening to the rumors that he will head somewhere else – Red Sox? Tigers? Scott Boras’ couch? – this write-up looks at life last year with Bregman and life next season without him.

2024 By the Numbers

Here are the third base stats for all those who played 3B (mostly Bregman) in 2024 for the Astros (stats are combined):

  • .259 BA (T-2nd in the AL)
  • .317 OBP (7th)
  • .753 OPS (4th)
  • 34 doubles (T-2nd)
  • 25 HRs (3rd)
  • 83 RBIs (3rd)

The most startling number above is the .317 OBP. Since Bregman played 142 of the 162 games at third base, this low number was driven by a huge drop in Bregman’s OBP (.363 to .315). This was the lowest OBP number he produced since his 2016 rookie season. He had come off two seasons in a row where his walks were higher than his Ks for the season. In 2024 his walks (44) were almost half of his Ks (86) as his walk rate dropped from 12.7 to 6.9%.

Now, looking at Bregman’s numbers compared with his heir apparent, Isaac Paredes……

Stat Bregman 2024 Paredes 2024
AB 581 542
BA .260 .238
OBP .315 .346
OPS .768 .739
Runs 79 64
Doubles 30 25
HRs 26 19
RBIs 75 80
Walk % 6.9 11.3
K % 13.6 17.5

There are a few other numbers that are critical in this comparison. Paredes is about to turn 26, and Bregman is about to turn 31. Paredes has three seasons (including 2025) before he becomes a free agent, while Bregman has zero. And very importantly – Paredes is making less than $7 million this season, while Bregman is looking to make $30 million (though he may have to settle for less). Even though Bregman is a reigning Gold Glove winner and Paredes appears to be an above-average fielder, we can certainly look at the numbers and understand why the team picked up Paredes. He is waaaaaay cheaper than Bregman and not that far off production-wise. He got on base quite a bit more and though his power numbers were less – his RBIs were higher.

Major League Possibilities

Four other players besides Bregman spent time at the hot corner in 2024 for the Astros. Grae Kessinger was DFA’d and then traded within the last few days. Mauricio Dubon again is the magic fill-in at many spots on the team, if……he’s not the regular left fielder. Zach Dezenzo spent 7 innings as a late inning sub at 3B and Shay Whitcomb was infamous for his four errors in one game stint at 3B. I will give the young man a bit of a pass as that occurred the day after they partied after clinching the division.

Top Prospects

You don’t have to dive down the Top 30 prospects list very far to find the 3B component. #1 Cam Smih, #3 Bryce Matthews and the aforementioned #6 Dezenzo all have ties to the hot corner. Isaac Paredes is not “blocking” them because they are not quite ready, but when the time comes the left side of the infield might become younger and cheaper when one or both of Smith and Matthews are ready to roll. And if that means trading Isaac Paredes and/or Jeremy Pena before they become free agents and picking up some more youngsters, that might be part of a long term plan to sustain the success of this team.

2024 AAA

Eleven different players manned the hot corner for the Space Cowboys in 2024, but if we skip five who played less than ten games there, the two who are no longer with the organization (Kessinger and David Hensley) and two we already mentioned with the big club (Whitcomb and Dezenzo), we are left with just two. Jesus Bastides, the 26-year-old picked up from the Yankees organization, is a solid infield bat who might be pulled up in a pinch. Dixon Machado, who turns 33 in a few weeks, is organizational depth as a slap-hitting infielder.

2024 AA

Ten players played this season at third base for the CC Hooks. Some of the same prospects covered here previously (Matthews, Dezenzo) and suspects covered in previous writeups (Tommy Sacco, Pascanel Ferreras) appear here. A new name who is a bit compelling due to his performance was Austin Deming. If that name sounds familiar, he was the Astros tenth-round pick in 2023 out of BYU, and significantly signed for practically nothing ($7500 vs a slotted value of $164K). He hit poorly in 2023 in a cup of coffee at A+ ball, but hit very well in 2024 at A+ and AA ball (.262 BA/ .348 OBP/ .812 OPS/ 19 HRs/63 RBIs). He is someone to watch as he rises through the ranks.

In the end, the Astros expect to use Isaac Paredes at 3B in 2025 and hopefully will not be forced to move to another option by an injury there or at 1B (where Paredes might be first man up). Now, what this all looks like in 2026 and 2027 is another matter.

 

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29 responses to “Astros’ 2025: A quick view of the third base position”

  1. Bregman wouldn’t resign because his agent is convinced there is more money out there than he would get from Houston. They are probably correct about that, but I am happy the Astros made a move to get Paredes, as it appears he is an above average player.

    Is it just me or is anyone else stunned that the Astros have Paredes, Pena, Altuve, Walker and Diaz in their infield for at least 3 years? All of them are above average players. I think the Astros have done a real good job there.

    I know we don’t have Tucker anymore, but we got a lot more than a late fourth round pick for him. Maybe a lot more. Now let’s see how Dana Brown betters this team in the next month.

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  2. Good morning everyone. First thought today. If the Longhorns could not score with a first and goal by jamming the ball straight ahead into the end zone, they should not be playing in the championship game.

    Since his remarkable 2019 age 25 season, Alex Bregman has posted a .794 OPS. He was an anchor for the Astros. He was a leader. He’ll be missed. But the club did not low ball him.

    The Astros will move on. We’re not done yet.

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  3. The Longhorns – they couldn’t do it – so they are not playing in it.

    OP – Yeah I’m not dying that we have Paredes instead of Bregman – we got a reasonable haul for Tucker and it looks like he might not be re-signing with the Cubs (based on their arb fight) after giving up that haul. Interested what happens in the OF

    Daveb – Bregman has been good lately but not $200 million great

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  4. Good morning! Our Texans are suddenly more relevant than our third base depth! Defense grinding early, offense hopeless. One broken play changes the whole night. And our guys flat out butchered the Chargers late. I don’t know if there is another game to be won this year, but this effort was good to see.

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    • That was a crazy/impressive game.

      We will not forget that play that turned the game – CJ misses the snap and somehow not only gets back and picks it up – but is able to outrun the defense to the right and somehow found Hutchinson for 34 yards. That flipped a switch and they seemed to run downhill with all the momentum from then on. I also don’t know if they can win another one – but that defense gives them a shot along with if CJ continues to show that confidence.

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  5. With one of the longtime Astros seemingly leaving, one would think there would be more comments on this 3rd Base blog. Are we tired of it all?

    Bregman has been around for 9 seasons, but he was the cure to a huge problem with the 3rd base position that haunted Houston for many seasons previous to his arrival. When he signs somewhere we will close the book on him the way we have closed the book on Springer and Correa and Cole, and others. But Bregman was a rock for us and I will miss him as I simultaneously say “adios”. I wonder if Luhnow knew back then how the price of players would spiral out of control to the point where a guy would sign a deal for $700 million to play, with most of it arriving after he retires. If he did know, it just makes his “plan” all the more amazing. How could someone that smart let his team mess up so badly that two holes like Cora and Beltran got away with their plan and an ex teammate burn it down?

    I sit back and enjoy the thought of the Texans still in the playoffs, while the worlds greatest GM looks for another head coach up in Arlington. There are seasons for all of us. One can hope there are more good ones for us who have waited so long.

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    • One thing I must add 1oldpro. Hinch gave up control of his dugout. Obviously it was too big a problem for him to manage. I’ll always hold him most accountable. Today, he does not get booed, yet Jose Altuve, one of the most decent men in the game has had to endure a career of being booed on the road wherever he goes.

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    • Hinch lost his dugout in Arizona and we thought he’d figured out how not to do that in Houston. I’m not sure he really lost the dugout. His excuses always felt a bit weaselly to me. I think Brown has done a great job on paper thus far. It’s not that I want Bregman playing for another team, but rather if he were to be back in Houston I want it to be on a contract commensurate with his current performance rather than peak performance from years ago. We shouldn’t forget that Crane made sure to give him a healthy extension once already when he knew Springer and Correa were in line for free agency. Unfortunately, pride wouldn’t allow a number of these guys to sign for less than what they perceive is the correct amount of respect they are due. I guess it worked out for Blake Snell, but there are an increasing number of Boras clients getting embarrassed.

      Somewhat related, I see a lot of people pointing to the Soto contract or Ohtani’s last winter thinking the market has been catapulted to new heights and everyone is going to get astronomical riches. I think they’re both right and wrong. Unless Tucker puts up triple crown numbers this year he’s not getting anywhere near Soto’s contract. He’s not getting Aaron Judge numbers either. The Astros were never going to offer him 10 years, though, so it didn’t matter how high the AAV went he would always find a better offer from somewhere else.

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      • Devin, I accept that Hinch has some weasel in him, mixed in with a weak back bone. It’s just a darn shame that as long as I’m on the planet, we’ll still be talking about this stuff from time to time.

        Talking about third base again, I’ll admit to feeling a bit bad for Bregman at this point. I’m sure he had no idea he’d still be in limbo at this point approaching mid January. And he’s an astute guy, but pretty obviously now, the Boras plan for his big contract has not worked out, at least so far.

        I hope he gets a job soon.

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      • Devin, I accept that Hinch has some weasel in him, mixed in with a weak back bone. It’s just a darn shame that as long as I’m on the planet, we’ll still be talking about this stuff from time to time.

        Talking about third base again, I’ll admit to feeling a bit bad for Bregman at this point. I’m sure he had no idea he’d still be in limbo at this point approaching mid January. And he’s an astute guy, but pretty obviously now, the Boras plan for his big contract has not worked out, at least so far.

        I hope he gets a job soon.

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      • daveb – I love Bregman to death, but I don’t feel sorry for him. He’s made $101 million in his career to date which in any other line of work is insane and frankly is pretty insane for sports too.

        He chose to move over to Boras as a client. He is an astute businessman and he must have seen that for some of Boras’ clients who might have a question mark or two that they sometimes are sitting there for a while and even having to settle for a short term / high AAV contract if the market is not there.

        He has some question marks that pop up – his age – his inability to hit well the first half of every season – a fall off from his 2018-2019 peak – a definite fall off in 2024 with his OBP/walk rate.

        He took a risk knowingly in turning down the Astros offer and now he may have to either settle for less or for shorter as the bidding war is not apparently there. I assume that Boras works for him and if he wants to sign soon that he can make it happen – but it may not be for $200 million.

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      • Dan, I don’t feel terrible. I’m not using any sleep. I still think the team that gets him, assuming they go 5 or more years, will not have happy fans in 3 or 4 years. I’m glad we did not have to honor that 6 year offer. And I remain convinced that moving him last winter would have jump started our next five years of continued relevance. But yeah, I hope he gets settled.

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  6. Two days from now is the opening of 2025’s International Free Agent signing frenzy. Since Sasaki falls under this category, and he is the #1 IFA, It is expected that he will announce his choice of teams to pitch for on this day, Jan 15th.

    According to this article: https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/each-team-s-top-international-prospect-2025?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage, Ullola is going to pass Luis Baez in the prospect rankings when they come out this spring. That means that either Baez’s weight is holding him back or Ullola’s future as a late inning reliever is coming into its own. As bad as the Astros outfield situation looks, you would think Baez would do everything he could to improve, but this is a disappointing development to me.

    Anyway, the way MLB is now hiding each IFA’s choice of where they will sign, Wednesday will be a good baseball newsday.

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    • Per MLB Astros top 30, Baez already reached 240 at one point last season and has become a below average runner and an adequate corner outfielder. Further, first base might be in his future. Thing is, we don’t need that right now. And we don’t need a fat guy at first in four years either.

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    • Let me put it this way, when I saw him the other year he was a 19 year old at A ball who looked like he was part of the Alex Bregman premature aging society. If he can learn to hit he’s a future DH. I don’t think he will.

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  7. So far I like how our infield is looking right now. As for Bregman, he made his decision based on Boris’ advice and he gets to sleep in the bed that he’s made. My prediction is that he’ll sign a one year deal with some team for around 27.5MM. This is based upon all those negative factors that we’ve been discussing. If he performs then he may get the longer contract and the bigger bucks. Somebody forgot to tell him a bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush.

    Next up for you Dan is the unenviable task of discussing our outfield.

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  8. Quite a story by Rome today in The Athletic on Tyler Ivey. I never knew why he disappeared. If you’ve got access, have a read.

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      • 1oldpro, he had shown quite a bit of promise through 2019. He skipped the pandemic season, as apparently (this was not noted in Rome’s story) he did not want to take the vaccine. He came back in 2021 and struggled. You might remember he had a single start with the Astros and then was sent back down to AAA ball. He decided not to report. Then he came back briefly in September and was done. He was mentally and physically shot. He settled into a quiet life in Pottsboro, Texas, got married and sold insurance. He discovered he had physical health issues that got resolved. He got a call from Dusty Baker that lifted his spirits. He helped coach a semi pro team. He started loving the game again. He pitched a game on a night the team needed help. He started working out. Fast forward to 2025, at the age of 28, he wants to give it one more shot. The Astros still own his contract. That’s as far as the story goes for now.

        And I typed this based on my memory of the story so I can’t be held accountable for any errors! Dana, what’s the risk?

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      • I would hope the team that gave Ronel Blanco his first full time MLB job at 30 years old would give the 28 y.o. a shot to prove himself again.

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    • Yeah, McTaggart does not impress me in any way. He’s essentially a club PR guy. Shame on him if he thinks of himself a journalist.

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