Astros’ tender arbitration offers: What it means

Today’s news said the Astros tendered offers to all their arb-eligible players. An article from mlbtraderumors from October 1 Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2025 – MLB Trade Rumors projected arb numbers for all of baseball, including the following for the Astros.

Framber Valdez (5.163): $17.8MM

Kyle Tucker (5.079): $15.8MM

Jose Urquidy (5.049): $3.75MM*

Mauricio Dubon (4.162): $4.6MM

Luis Garcia (4.083): $1.875MM

Bryan Abreu (4.022): $3.7MM

Chas McCormick (4.000): $3.3MM

Jake Meyers (3.044): $2.2MM

Jeremy Pena (3.000): $4.4MM

Penn Murfee (2.169): $800K*

*Urquidy and Murfee were both released by the Astros and are no longer part of the arb class. Murfee has signed with the White Sox, and Urquidy, probably out for the 2025 seasons, is an unsigned free agent.

**Note that the arb numbers above are a guess by mlbtraderumors about what the players will eventually get and do not reflect what the Astros offered any of them.

Looking at the players above, they can be grouped as follows:

No-Brainers – Valdez, Tucker, Pena and Abreu

Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker are basically their best starting pitchers and tied for best (with Yordan Alvarez) position players, respectively. The team had to extend these offers. This allows them to settle outside arbitration for a year, settle outside arbitration on an extension, or go to arbitration and have an arbitrator choose between their offer and the player’s counteroffer. They need to do this also if they intend to trade either or both of them in the off-season or at the trade deadline.  

Bryan Abreu is arguably the Astros best relief pitcher over the last three seasons as a set up pitcher and likely even more valuable going forward. Plus, there is likely no way they would trade him. So, his offer was a no-brainer, too.

Jeremy Pena is a first time arb eligible player and certainly even with some ups and downs to his game, has earned his offer also. He would potentially come up for arbitration twice more in his career.

Seemed Likely – Garcia and Javier

Both Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier are question marks due to their injury situation after having Tommy John surgery. Garcia looked ready to return in 2024, but never got through rehab back to the majors after appearing in two minor league games. Javier went down in 2024 and would not be expected back until sometime well into 2025. Unlike Urquidy, the Astros are betting on the come with both players and hopeful they will get them back anywhere close to their peak performance sometime in 2024.

Question Marks – Dubon, McCormick and Meyers

Mauricio Dubon is a very flexible player, playing good defense all over the field and hitting for a solid batting average. He also rarely walks and so has an inferior on-base percentage and does not show a lot of power. If the Astros had someone else, cheaper they trusted to fill his spot they might have skipped him, but they did not. Still, $4.6 MM is a lot for below-average production off the bench.

Chas McCormick was awful in 2024. But likely the Astros are hoping he will bounce back to the 2022 and 2023 Chas in 2025. Or they could come to Spring Training and have someone else sweep them off their feet and look for a trade partner. To me, they will give Chas a solid chance to earn his spot back, but he might have a short leash.

Jake Meyers is the Astros best defensive CF, but it must be emphasized that he (for some strange reason) never plays LF or RF. He was given the CF spot in 2024 and attempted to hand it back with a below average season at the plate. He would seem to be in a similar spot as Chas and there must be a question whether he will even break camp with the club or be traded during the spring.

The Astros had a chance at this arbitration time to move in a different direction at the “question” spots above. They did not do it – but that does not mean they won’t move on sometime in 2025.

 

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41 responses to “Astros’ tender arbitration offers: What it means”

  1. I just noticed the Rockets are playing at home for the second night in a row against the Trail Blazers. When did the NBA start scheduling back to back games against the same team?

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  3. Yes Dave – the multiple games in the same location is a new deal – I think they are hoping that this will cut down on fatigue and perhaps cut down on the stars missing games.

    By the way the Astros are in “conversations” with JV

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  4. The Rockets have been a pleasure to watch this year. They hustle. They go to the hoop. After blowing the Blazers out on Friday night scoring 130 points using 13 guys with only one guy playing as many as 26 minutes, I figured the Trail Blazers would get routed two nights in a row. Not to be. Rockets managed only 98 points which was not enough.

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  5. Sorry to hog the comments, but assuming our owner and Verlander come to terms, I think a forgone conclusion, then let’s get Kikuchi or other guy that can give us innings and then move Framber for some quality young talent. Sure it’s a risk, but I think 2025 is going to be a season of change anyway, especially if Bregman is gone.

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    • I’ve suspected the entire time that he lands back with Houston on a 1 year, 8-9M deal. It made more sense than something Kikuchi. I would rate the chances that Verlander is going to bounce back and have a decent year, and I mean, 140 good innings of lower to mid 3s ERA where he wins 12 games, I would rate that a higher chance than Yusei continuing that run he had. And Verlander is a LOT cheaper as the Angels just showed us.

      To be fair though, Brown was asked about it, he didn’t bring it up. And if you read the entire thing on JV, it doesn’t sound imminent. He believes JV’s agent is talking to multiple teams.

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    • I’ve suspected the entire time that he lands back with Houston on a 1 year, 8-9M deal. It made more sense than something Kikuchi. I would rate the chances that Verlander is going to bounce back and have a decent year, and I mean, 140 good innings of lower to mid 3s ERA where he wins 12 games, I would rate that a higher chance than Yusei continuing that run he had. And Verlander is a LOT cheaper as the Angels just showed us.

      To be fair though, Brown was asked about it, he didn’t bring it up. And if you read the entire thing on JV, it doesn’t sound imminent. He believes JV’s agent is talking to multiple teams.

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  6. Texans were horrible today. Now I remember why I don’t watch football. It is like watching the Astros lose to the worst team ever, the 2024 White Sox.

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    • Oooff, very Angels like decision. Pay the guy big time money for one great stretch of 10 games and a career of mediocrity. They probably also have a committee of veteran players making their personnel decisions.

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    • Well, the Astros sure helped him make a lot of money by assisting with a tweak of his game. But I could not justify 63 million to the guy.

      Now I’m almost ready to call the Bloss, Loperfido, Wagner trade a failure.

      I know, we might not have gotten into the post season without the lefty rental, but in retrospect it’s much easier now, especially with the quick sweep by the Tigers to call the trade a loss.

      That said, I think Wagner has become the favorite to get daily playing time with Loperfido a longer shot and Bloss still a question mark.

      But we gave up depth. And we don’t have much of that.

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  9. I don’t remember the exact quote and I’m too lazy to go find it now but I remember a question going to Brown where he alluded to the idea that he felt like he could be forced into trading expensive veterans. I think everyone took it as a Pressly reference but I wonder if someone came knocking about Framber if he would have that talk.

    Baseball reference has his WAR in 2022 at 3.4, and this last season at 4.5. I would much rather have his 2022 season than his 2024 season, but not baseball reference. Maybe replacement players have gotten worse in the last 2 years.

    He just turned 31 a few days ago. He has legitimately 2 or 3 years of pitching at a pretty high level left, sans injury, which he seems to have stayed away from. He is going to want a 5-6 year deal, where, like Bregman, we will probably have to deal with 3 or 4 of paying him for the player he used to be and not the player he will be. We can afford a few of those, we aren’t the Royals. But we can’t have many of them. Altuve is already a candidate to be that sooner than later.

    The Astros are making a mistake. If eggs are going in baskets around here, paying Framber and Bregman and Altuve while letting the one guy that, yes will be the most expensive one, but is likely to be the one earning closest to that salary in his mid 30s, letting that guy walk, is a mistake. Eggs should be in KT’s basket, and Valdez and Bregman walk, and build around a batting order that has Alvarez/Altuve/Tucker/Diaz going forward. We could use at least one more young guy to show up and be a help to the lineup, or Pena to finally become a bit more of a power hitter that his arms suggest he can be.

    If I were the Astros I would consider doing with Pena what they did with Alvarez, buy some AAV in the future by upping these arbitration year salaries to lower the bill on his first 2-3 years of FA. He is no star, but its easier to build the position around a durable, younger guy who plays at least above average D, runs well, and has moments. And if you don’t think he doesn’t have the potential to turn a 15 HR year into a 25 HR year, you aren’t watching. Sure, he needs to figure out the outside slider, but if he ever does……

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    • Man, I don’t normally toot my own horn, but had we moved Framber and Bregman last winter and signed Lugo for those 2 years at 15 million, then I think we’d have an interesting team right now with a whole lot more flexibility this winter. But in fairness, my ideas normally are not very good.

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    • Angels are paying $38M to Rendon, $37M to Trout, $21M to Kikuchi, and $16M to Soler next year. According to Spotrac they’re sitting at $150 and project to $185M now. Houston is sitting at $146 and project to $214M. The Angels could afford to sign Kikuchi because he’s chasing that bank account and not a ring. Houston couldn’t meet those numbers and was wise not to try.

      Regarding Valdez and his value and/or WAR, in 2024 he allowed .85 runs fewer per nine innings than in 2023. In 2024 he allowed 1.39 runs per nine fewer than the league average pitcher whereas in 2023 he allowed 0.69 runs per nine fewer than the league average pitcher. Otherwise his numbers were about the same in fewer innings. I think you either trade him this winter or let 2024 play out and make a run at him in FA if you want to keep him longer.

      Pena is a good player who has much more offensive potential than I ever thought he would have. I wonder what the Astros are expecting from Brice Matthews at this point. He strikes out more than I’d like, but I think he has the potential to be a balanced hitter. My negotiations with Pena would hinge largely on whether I thought Matthews could be a viable option in 2026.

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  10. Last night I was reading MLB Trade Rumors. Indeed, trade rumors. But those guys seem to be fairly accurate when compared to most other sources. Anyway, Bob Nightingale is quoted as saying the Astros offer for Bregman is six years at 156. If that’s the case, Bregman is probably not coming back.

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  11. 6/156 is a very fair offer in a ridiculously unfair MLB financial world. It is $26 million per year through his age 36 season.

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    • It’s also a better offer than 6yr/$151M that Chapman got without factoring in the lack of state income tax in Texas. The top bracket there sits at 12.3%.

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    • If he’s gone, we’ll really miss his defense. That will be the hardest thing to replace, short or long term.

      But, he’s never had an offensive year close to his career year in 2019 at the age of 25. His OPS has gone from .820 in 2022 to .804 in 2023 to .768 this past year. I’m a bit surprised the Astros actually gave him a 6 year offer.

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    • If he’s gone, we’ll really miss his defense. That will be the hardest thing to replace, short or long term.

      But, he’s never had an offensive year close to his career year in 2019 at the age of 25. His OPS has gone from .820 in 2022 to .804 in 2023 to .768 this past year. I’m a bit surprised the Astros actually gave him a 6 year offer.

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    • Dan, a quick look at his stats in winter ball shows 5 walks vs 3 strikeouts with 1 double as his only xtra base hit. He is obviously concentrating on hitting pitches in the strike zone, at the sacrifice of power.

      That is the only way to transform yourself from a swinger to a hitter. You make your swing zone smaller and then convert your power stroke to that zone.

      He is playing the majority of his time in LF and then the rest of his time at 1B.

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  14. 32 year old Blake Snell just got a rather complicated 5 year deal for 182 million that include a big signing bonus and some deferred money. It will apparently cost the Dodgers 32 million or so in bonus tax.

    Snell has a hard time staying healthy. But when on the mound, he’s about the best. But how many inning will he give LA over the next 5 years.

    This deal can’t hurt Framber’s prospects. I just don’t see the Astros coming up with anything close to that kind of money if they want to extend him.

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  15. 32 year old Blake Snell just got a rather complicated 5 year deal for 182 million that include a big signing bonus and some deferred money. It will apparently cost the Dodgers 32 million or so in bonus tax.

    Snell has a hard time staying healthy. But when on the mound, he’s about the best. But how many inning will he give LA over the next 5 years.

    This deal can’t hurt Framber’s prospects. I just don’t see the Astros coming up with anything close to that kind of money if they want to extend him.

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    • My favorite part of the Snell signing is reading the comments at MLBTR and seeing someone calling the people complaining that he went to the Dodgers a bunch of crybabies. Pot, kettle, black? On paper this is a great signing for a team that is operating with a different set of rules than many others. I don’t have a simple solution. What I will say is that it’s crazy to be giving $182M in guaranteed money to a guy who is on the wrong side of 30 and only managed to win 76 games across 9 seasons in the majors. Then again, the Yankees gave Carlos Rodon $162M when he had only won 56 games in the majors through his age 29 season.

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  17. Snell is overpaid. I would rather have Framber.

    All kinds of thoughts about how to “refresh” this team has been swimming in my head. Would the Cardinals take a Valdez and Meyers trade where we get in return Brendan Donovan and Tink Hence? I don’t know they are taking that trade. I wonder if there is a way to pry Westburg from Baltimore? Tucker for Westburg straight up gives us a 3rd baseman for the next 4 years but leaves a gaping hole in RF and the lineup for 2025. Sending Kyle Tucker to Baltimore for Mayo would be the real win, but I doubt the Orioles take that. We would probably have to throw a sweetener in that tea like Arrighetti, and we probably can’t afford to lose that piece from the pitching staff right this second.

    I’m glad I’m not Dana Brown right now. My brain swam around a three way trade with the two Soxes last night where KT ends up in Boston.

    Arrighetti, the Red Sox best prospect Kristian Campbell, and 2 other Boston prospects end up in Chicago, and we get Wilyer Abreu and Garrett Crochet, two 25 year olds that would instantly make us younger and more affordable. But I don’t know that Boston gives up Kristian Campbell for 1 year of Kyle Tucker. Just doesn’t make a lot of sense for them to do that.

    Two years of control of Tucker and Valdez probably get those trades done. But we probably don’t win the division last year without Valdez. This is why I only get to opinionate on a blog and not run a major league franchise I guess, but the Astros could have used more foresight in this freight train of Bregman, Valdez, Altuve, and Tucker all hitting FA within 12 months of each other and done things about it earlier.

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    • I just think we’re stuck with an Astro Human Resources manual that almost always (Altuve being the exception) does not allow for franchise players under contract to be traded. Policy dictates we pay them until the contract is up and then let them walk.

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  18. Any scuttlebutt as to why Minute Maid Inc. gave up its naming rights for the next 4 (or 8 according to who one reads from) years?

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