Dana Brown and the powers that be (and wouldn’t we all love to see how that decision tree works) have a lot of work to do this off-season….or not. Today, we will look at the Astros and three different lines of attack available for their off-season.
Stay the Course
In this case, “stay the course” means the team will stick to its current guns as much as possible. What would this line of attack be?
- The GM Dana Brown, Manager Joe Espada, and his coaching staff return intact.
- They re-sign Alex Bregman.
- They let Justin Verlander walk/ they attempt to re-sign Yusei Kikuchi, but have limits.
- They do not make a pre-emptive trade before free agency centered around Kyle Tucker or Framber Valdez
- They attempt to extend both Tucker and Valdez.
- They plan to fill first base with an all-hands-on-deck method centered around Jon Singleton, Yainer Diaz, Victor Caratini, and perhaps some games from Shay Whitlock and Zach Dezenzo.
- They expect 2022/2023 Chas McCormick to reappear in 2025.
- They expect Jake Meyers to improve.
- They plan on getting help from Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia at the beginning of 2025 and help from J.P. France, Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier halfway through 2025.
- They expect Penn Murfee and Oliver Ortega to help with a returning bullpen core.
The Nuclear Option
The Nuclear Option, in this case, is an almost complete 52-card pickup scenario.
- The team has gone downhill two seasons in a row – so Dana Brown and Joe Espada are sent packing. (Can’t happen? Look at James Click being allowed to leave after winning the Championship. Look at the Texans replacing head coach after head coach in a 3 season time frame to finally get their guy).
- Bregman, Kikuchi and Verlander are gone.
- The team trades Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker for as much young talent as they can get for them.
- They do not tender arbitration to Jose Urquidy and Chas McCormick.
- They trade Ryan Pressly in the off-season, paying for about 2/3 of his salary. They see if there is any trade possible for Rafael Montero.
- They trade Victor Caratini, Jake Meyers, and Jon Singleton.
- If Lance McCullers Jr. returns and can pitch, they see if they can trade him at the deadline.
- At the deadline they see if there is any interest in Josh Hader and if they trade him, Bryan Abreu is the closer.
- They see if anyone has “developed” sufficiently in the minors and consider a deadline trade with Jeremy Pena.
- They promote heavily from within and utilize whatever young talent they pick up from the trades.
- Their lineup’s core is Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Yainer Diaz. The rotation is centered around Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti, Luis Garcia and one of the young trio of Colton Gordon, Ryan Gusto and A.J. Blubaugh. Cristian Javier and J.P. France may return during the season to help out. The bullpen has Hader, Abreu, Tayler Scott, Forrest Whitley, Kaleb Ort and Bryan King along with whoever else they can slide in there.
Hybrid Option
This is the most likely direction the team will head.
- The GM and manager will stay. A coach or two (I’m looking at the hitting coaches Alex Cintron and Troy Snitker specifically) may be replaced.
- The Astros pursue both Alex Bregman and Yusei Kikuchi hard but only sign one of them – Kikuchi.
- The Astros offer Justin Verlander a one-year, incentive-laden contract – he goes elsewhere.
- The Astros attempt to extend both Framber and Kyle and succeed with Valdez.
- The Astros move Pressly down the pecking order in the bullpen and move Tayler Scott and perhaps even Bryan King ahead of him.
- They see if they can get some lineup help from within the organization with more opportunities for Whitcomb, Dezenzo and even Pedro Leon.
- They see if they can bring back Jason Heyward to rotate with Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers and Yordan Alvarez in the outfield.
- They go forward with a Singleton, Diaz, Caratini rotation at first, possibly Dezenzo and Whitcomb at third. If they can pick up a 3B in free agency or by trade they may head that direction.
- The team’s strength is its rotation of Valdez, Kikuchi, Blanco, Brown, and Arrighetti, with potential help from the minor league trio and/or McCullers and Garcia.
Okay, I gave it my best shot here. Where do you think the team will head going into 2025?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
24 responses to “Astros off-season: Different lines of attack”
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Man – it would not even let you post “test”
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I think it’s working again, but it was a pretty lengthy post. Maybe I’ll try to duplicate in the morning.
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Wow! I guess I’m glad I’m not the general manager or the owner and his committee. The player that I have trouble with letting go is Bregman for several reasons As an old LSU professor, I used to sit in Alex box stadium with Bregman’s parents a couple of times when he was LSU’s shortstoo for three years. They spoke of him being the state champion in chess while in high school. Paul Manieri (coach) spoke of him being a true gym rat. Other players gravitated to him. He obviously is that with the Astros. The negatives are his terrible slow starts and salary. He has the best eye for the strike zone on the team and seems to be the main leader in the clubhouse. I can’t imagine him not being the main priority for the Astros in resigning. It’s time for Verlander to go. Try some of these AAA outfielders and let McCormick go. There is other burdens that they be able to trade.
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I’d try to trade Valdez for outfield prospects or a ready to go outfielder(s). Got to cut bait with JV. Also unload Pressley if at all possible. Nobody would take Hader off our hands unless we pick up a big portion of his contract. I was thinking that maybe be could get a 2 year deal with an option for a 3rd year with Kukuchi at a much better price. He’s also not the head game that Framber is.
The outfield experiment of Chaz and Jake is past it’s prime save for one season. The law of averages say either will never be more than a 225 -250 hitter. We need something more.
If we can sign Bregman for some non ridiculous amount then I say do it with maybe an opt out clause and an option for about another year. Maybe Altuve will renegotiate his contract since he wants Bregman back so much.
Although I like Dubon, I don’t think he’s worth the estimated 6.5MM that he’ll get paid. Maybe another option is available.
Montero and Abreu’s horrendous deals come off the books in 2026 so we’ll have more cash to play with. Unfortunately we will have Javier’s 21.4 MM in 2026 and 2027. Then there’s the Kyle Tucker contract after 2025 and that won’t come cheap. I suspect several teams will be licking their chops to sign King Tuck.
First base is what it is, a cavalcade of merry go rounds or the “Cake Walk” like they used to do at school fairs if you remember. It will be interesting to see how we draft next year. I do wish we had Will Wagner back and although I liked Loperfido, Will seems to be the player with more upside.
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Stay the course: I just think Boras and Bregman want the biggest contract they can find. Historically, we’ve not done that. I don’t think we’ll start now. I would not be surprised if Crane decided to make a deal with Verlander directly. I’d much rather Kikuchi come back though. Hayward got 9 million to play part time last year. How much less would he take? I expect Chas to revert back to a .750 plus OPS, maybe a bit better. But we’ve got to squeeze more offense out of the outfield. Jake is not going to do that. He got 513 PA’s in 2024 and proved it. I have no expectations of the injured pitching rotation. Dana Brown should not either. Penn Murfee could be a big boost, but until I see the guy in Florida pitching in spring games, I’m not thinking he’s going to be in the pen. Is Graveman gone? I don’t trust Neris at this point.
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The nuclear option: I have this vision of Crane sitting tucked away in an office somewhere with his committee members as they present their rebuilding design on a chalkboard. No nerds are allowed to attend.
But really, some of the nuclear stuff appeals to me. I don’t see anything quite as rash as Brown and Espada getting their walking papers though. I have very few untouchables on this club. And I keep whining about getting younger. I’d trade Valdez and Tucker if the return brought us a quality outfielder, a third base talent and a rotation guy to replace (most) of the Valdez innings. Framber and Tucker will probably cost about 33 million in 2025. And if we were to get 8 or 10 million more by moving Pressly and Montero, that money would pay for some stuff. Dropping Verlander would be another chunk. It’s adding up to a little war chest. And if you’ve got a new shortstop ready to go (not that I’m aware of) Jeremy Peña is worth far more than some of us have considered. His three season 12.9 WAR (Baseball Perspective) would have a fair amount of teams interested. The customers across the way regularly speak of doing away with Jeremy.
And last, for now anyway, Whitley has to make the roster out of ST. And if not, move him too.
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And I forgot about Bregman. If we’re not paying him, that’s 30 million right there.
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The (mostly) sensible Hybrid version: No big deal to replace the hitting coaches, but it might well make Joe rather uneasy, which might also make him realize that getting his hitters to control themselves better at the plate is essential. Way too much chasing. I’m hoping that Yordan is in regular discussion with his countryman Joan Moncada. He’s the kind of guy that might start putting up some happy numbers on a happy team. No way the Sox are going to pay him 25 million in 2025. So how much, or little might the Astros have to pay for an often injured Moncada? I just did not see anything from Dezenzo and Whitcomb (both guys that I like) that would indicate a readiness to take over the hot corner.
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Good stuff there
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I don’t think we need to replace coaches so much as change what I’ll call some of the organizational strategies. It’s great to be aggressive in the right situations. Down two runs in the ninth with no one on first base and grounding out to 2B should be fined in kangaroo court, but I think Espada just slaps them on the back and says get ’em next time, Tiger. Likewise, even if Hader wants to go out there in a tie game in the ninth or extra innings, tell him to sit because we’re saving some innings for when we need them and give another guy on the roster a shot. If they can’t get us three outs when we need it, well, I’ll be happy to take their place on the roster and do the same.
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There is no use trying to get below average Astros batters to be patient at the plate, if you can’t get Altuve, Bregman and Diaz to be patient and look for pitches in the zone to swing at. They have to set the example for others.
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First change: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/astros-rumors-gary-pettis-wont-return-2025-coaching-staff.html
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Devin – yeah a lot of times the in-game “strategy” leaves me scratching my head. If you can get three outs you have my vote for a roster spot.
OP – Altuve has never been the most patient hitter, but his walk rate dipped more than 30% in 2024 and that is just not acceptable. Bregman came off two straight seasons where he walked more than he struck out and suddenly he struck out twice as often as walking as his walk rate dropped 45%.
Yainer’s walk rate went up slightly, but has been brutal and it is the part of his game that needs to improve (but may never).
Yes – they really need those guys to lead the way.
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The Dodgers did not have a starter for game two today. When the number one seed has such a glaring weakness, the Mets, if they hold on for the win today, have a decided advantage heading home to NY.
It makes me think about the Astros. Had they managed some offense against Detroit, they had a real advantage in starting pitching depth that could have taken them deep into October.
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Good morning,
I wish someone would ask Bregman if he intentionally changed his approach in 2024, which doubled his strike out total. It’s hard to figure how such a formally selective guy sabotaged his OBP to such a degree.
As for Altuve, I’m concerned he’s already counting his way towards 3000 hits. That might explain the 30% drop in walk rate.
As for Yainer, I’m hoping he’ll continue to mature as a hitter and realize more selectively will ultimately result in more pitches that he can drive. I appreciate the fact that he’ll send a pitch out to right center for a base hit with a guy in scoring position, but he should be a 30 homer guy. That won’t happen until he makes the strike zone smaller.
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I feel like the Astros have already told us with the contracts they are paying that they are staying the course.
Even the contracts they are paying for players that are not a part of the 2025 plan – either they have already cut bait or they can’t stay healthy – just seems to weigh them down in any direction. If you go nuclear and trade any impending FA you are less likely to stay ahead of the Mariners next year who return that pitching staff pretty much intact. If you start losing games, well, Houston fans are fickle. The difference between 35,000 fans on a Wednesday evening and 15,000 fans on a Wednesday evening makes that dead money harder to pay. I suspect with both the accounting department and the “committee” weighing in this team stays the course.
Common sense says cut ties with JV. My gut tells me cuts ties with JV. The fan in me though wants him to retire an Astro and put the right cap on his bust. If he can be brought back on 1 year, 9-10M, it’s not my money. You are not getting Kikuchi back for that, which will probably be 3/48 if not 4/60, and Kikuchi’s track record is not one that makes you think that is a good deal.
Let’s be honest, if this team rolls into ST with Valdez, Brown, Blanco, Arrighetti, Garcia, and McCullers that would probably be the economic choice. France at least gives you the depth, and Dana has talked about Gusto and Blubaugh both getting their shots. That’s 9 guys. Here is the scary part – before their injuries, Javier and Garcia had both set career high in IP each of the previous two seasons. Two more guys currently fit that criteria – Brown and Blanco. If I were the Astros I would consider permanently adopting the 6 man rotation for 2025.
I’m radical. The things I would do are drastically different. Part of me thinks it’s time for a reset, after all the more things you have to move out the more return you can get. The other part of me is a competitor who realizes any move we make in trading Framber or Tucker, the other team is going to try and win also. You could end up with a bunch of nothing burgers. The Tigers got practically nothing for Verlander. We practically reset the Mariners for Randy Johnson. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. I think there is time to worry about 2026 in the fall of 2025.
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Steven, so you think Bregman will be back then. I hope you’re wrong. It’ll cost quite a bit more than he’s worth to retain him. I don’t really want to watch his decline over the next 5 plus years. I am more hybrid in my thinking. And I’d like to see Dana Brown think outside the box and show some creativity. Those are his words. Is it impossible to visualize the Astros moving Framber and Tucker and getting better? Probably not for 2025, but maybe for 2026. I guess that would be the Hybrid/Nuclear concept. I’d be ok with that approach.
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I think they make an offer. I don’t think he is back because I think someone will offer more.
I don’t think Kikuchi will be back for the same reason.
I don’t think anyone will be beating down Verlander’s door though. So I do think he will be back.
Could be wrong about all 3.
I just don’t see any trades. I don’t see them moving Framber or King Tuck. I think not having those guys back isn’t going to be because they want to reset, it’s because they will be outbid, but that the attitude is going to be look at Dezenzo and Gusto and Blubaugh and say “next man up.” This is how they have functioned for 7 years, I expect more of the same.
None of that is answer to WSWD (what Steve would do) which is dramatically different. I could turn every position into a college paper. But I’m the GM or on the committee so no one cares what I think.
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And think about this – this team has Altuve, Hader and Alvarez under contract through at least 2028. I don’t think they spent that 340M+ on those contracts to start trading guys and taking a step back. Heck, they are going to paying Zach Greinke’s grandkids it feels like. They need MMP rocking every night. Dead contracts, and even underperforming guys getting 15M to pitch the 7th, also need the place rocking, unless Crane just hates money. And he doesn’t strike me as a guy that wants to part with his money.
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Steven, I keep reading about the station to station offense the Astros presented in 2024. As long as we have Altuve and Yordan in the line up, we need more guys that can support them by getting around the bases, and stealing more bases. We’re slow. We’re not aggressive. We’re not selective. That needs to change. We looked old compared to the Tigers. We were.
The other thing is that Crane has shown an almost reckless willingness to part with his money. Abreu, Montero, Brantley, Verlander, Hader. I wish he’d stop and let his his GM sink or swim his own way.
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Man, I’d sure like to read WSWD!
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And I am, admittedly, not as educated on the business side as I would like.
Can they trade Montero? I have no idea what kind of control you have on a player that you DFA then he accepts the assignment. Does that control extend into the offseason or can someone else come along and offer him a major league contract and a 40 man spot after the WS? I could probably google it, but I trust you all as much as google giving me an actual response.
But I guess my point is, why would someone trade for a player that they could have already signed when he was DFA’d for the major league minimum but didn’t?
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By accepting the assignment, the Astros retained the rights to Montero but got him off their 40 man roster. He is not a free agent and therefore cannot just go sign with another team. Crane still owes him $23M. We can trade him to another organization, but it’s unlikely someone will want to do that without having Crane retain responsibility for that money.
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