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Astros 2024 – Will They Be Buyers?

The founder of the feast around here, Chip Bailey, threw out a few questions and statements to me by text on Monday.

“It’s beginning to look as though the Astros just don’t have the oomph to get back in it. Although the AL West seems to be a softie. Have you considered a post about if the Astros are BUYERS at the deadline? As in, who could help turn things around?  I guess you first have to determine if BUYER is a viable option…or if it’s just silly season! ?”

This is a very relevant question, especially in lieu of Dana Brown’s statements yesterday.

It seems odd that Brown would say there is no scenario he can imagine where they would sell. I mean, what if a couple more starting pitchers hit the IL and you end up in mid-July 15 games out of first place in the AL West?

Now, that could be just a bit of blustering bravado by Brown, or it could be a belief that the team is ready to roll on a hot streak with hitters like Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Yainer Diaz heating up.

But for our purposes here, if the Astros are BUYERS, what does that mean?

Starting Pitching. The Pollyanna side to me says – hey, Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown, and Spencer Arrighetti are pitching quite well right now and should be able to hold the rope through June when the team has five off days. By July we should be seeing Luis Garcia back with Lance McCullers Jr. a little bit behind him. No need for more SPs.

The more realistic side to me says – will all five of those guys stay healthy (JV and Framber have already spent time on the IL this season)? Is Ronel Blanco for real or will the league get a book on him? Can Blanco, Brown, and Arrighetti make it through a long season effectively, or will they fall off like JP France and Brown did in the second half last year? And can we count on Garcia and McCullers at all? We just saw Jose Urquidy work his way back to almost being called up and then getting hurt. Will either Garcia or McCullers actually come back, and if they come back, can they be relied on to the end of the regular season and beyond?

If the Astros are buyers, they should be looking hard at SP options. If they think they are set for 2025 they could look for a rental from a team that is underperforming. Say, go back to the Mets and see what it would take to grab Luis Severino (Free agent after this year) or Sean Manaea (Player option for 2025). Would the White Sox consider trading surprise competent starter Erick Fedde?

Relief Pitching. The Astros’ relief pitching after a rough start has become a strength. Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu, Seth Martinez, Tayler Scott, Parker Mushinski, and Rafael Montero had ERA’s of 2.08 and below in May. Even Ryan Pressly improved to 3.72 for the month after a nasty April. The team may want to take a wait and see on the RP situation until closer to the deadline to see if any of the Cinderellas on this list turn into pumpkins.

First Base. The Black Hole of Calcutta for the Astros must be a trade consideration. There have already been rumors about the Astros and NY Mets slugger Pete Alonso. Alonso would be a rental (free agent after the season) and while he’s hit 14 HRs and 31 RBIs, his .237 BA (after .217 in 2023) is not that encouraging. He would be owed a percentage of his $20.5 MM contract – about $13 MM at this point. But he is only 29, so one would think he might thrive in this lineup (or be the next Jose Abreu). There obviously could be other 1Bs available out there – perhaps Josh Bell, if the Marlins want to dump the rest of his salary for the season. But he would be a lesser Alonso at close to the same cost.

Most of us would rather the team brought up Joey Loperfido and let him take a shot. He probably would not hit as well as he did in his last call-up – he was hitting with a fair amount of luck, but we would expect a livelier bat than either Jose Abreu or Jon Singleton are giving the team. And it’s not like either Abreu or Singleton are Gold Gloves at 1B.

Other Positions. Unless the Astros traded away someone like Alex Bregman (which they would not as buyers) or suffered a bad injury, there is no obvious spot on the team that needs to be shored up. They could possibly go for help on the bench, but that has not been a spot that they have tended towards in past deadline deals.

In the end, we don’t have a clue what this front office will do because we don’t know who is flying the plane. We do know that Jim Crane has previously pushed the front office towards being aggressive at the deadline. If they do, look for it to be a shot at shoring up the pitching.

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30 responses to “Astros 2024 – Will They Be Buyers?”

  2. Dan, I preach a lot to my clients about mindset. Mindset matters. As Henry Ford says, “Whether you think you can or you think you can’t, you’re right!”

    Teams like the Astros under Jim Crane have a lot of pride in what they’ve done in the past several years. That fixed mindset likely has a bearing on their direction over the next month.

    They could ride this Denial Trane for the rest of this season simply because they believe they can because they have done it before.

    Look at the Saints. How long have they kicked the can down the road when the consensus says throw in the towel and start over. The Saints are mediocre at best the past few seasons and likely to be mediocre in a weak division again in 2024.

    Are the Saints and Astros similar? In some ways, yes. Some younger stars and aging veterans (although Seattle has the oldest roster in MLB). Right now, it appears that the Astros “believe they can”, so you could reasonably conclude they will be buyers, especially with the explanation points behind Urquidy and Javier now official.

    The questions are:

    • Buy with what?
    • What to buy?
    • How much to buy?

    Should we expect Crane to come out on a radio show and mimic Jerry’s “all in” comment?

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  3. Chip

    Jerry Jones has a weird way of being all-in – I don’t follow the Cowboys really but had heard that they did practically nothing during free agency this year.

    The Astros are surely in a bit of denial, but they were one home win away from the World Series 7 months ago and are only a year and a half removed from the championship. They’ve earned a bit of belief in themselves.

    If I know anything about Dana Brown in his short time here – he will likely not be sending off who he considers the top prospects (as opposed to any Top 30 ratings one may see). And I’m betting he will more likely grab short timers than folks with longer commitments. If……he is actually calling the shots.

    If Jim Crane wants them to get the equivalent of 2017 Verlander or 2018 Cole or 2019 Greinke – they will probably go do that.

    Parts of the roster are older, but they do have a chunk that are still solidly in their prime or younger – Tucker, Alvarez, Pena, Diaz, Arrighetti, Brown, Meyers, Loperfido, B.Abreu, Javier.

    But the point you are making about the Saints is a good one. The one thing that Jeff Luhnow did towards sustainability was being ruthless. He looked at his statistical based crystal ball to see the future, not the back of a baseball card.

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  4. One thing about Dana Brown is that he says things he can’t always back up. Last year he guaranteed Tucker would get locked up. This year Brown has said that Tucker would get an offer at some point. That’s much different. Dana talks too much.

    I asked the question this morning about depth. Based on our starting pitching situation, we might not have much of an option to be anything but sellers if we lose another guy from the rotation. Right now we certainly don’t have enough starting pitching to give us the innings we’ll need to get through 162 games, without even thinking about the post season. What are we going to give up for an impact starter now? Bregman, Loperfido? A couple of our last remaining fairly highly rated prospects? A block buster Tucker deal for multiple arms and a first baseman? I’d be impressed with that one, because I don’t think we’re going to sign Tucker.

    We might have enough oomph offensively if the powers to be are fully committed to winning. First base is the place to show such a commitment. Try to fix it. Try something different. Show the cojones to send Abreu home. We might not even have to go outside the organization. Loperfido was sent down after sitting for more than a week so that Kessinger could keep sitting on the bench. But yet then we send Kessinger down so that Cabbage could come back up. Heck, at least start Cabbage at first. And if he does not work, put JL at first. Brown has shown a lot of faith in many untested arms so far this year, some with good to very good results. He needs to show the same faith and convince the committee to try guys from our own system like Loperfido and Cabbage at first base.

    But Dan, you’re sure right. We don’t know who’s running the operation. And that’s what makes it so hard to visualize this club making a sustained run this summer. So I keep thinking that maybe we’re just better off trying to position the club for 2025, which might mean moving Bregman or even Tucker, and letting Abreu go, and Chas or Jake and looking at all the offense we’ve got in AAA today and bringing some of those guys up. But I just don’t see Abreu going anywhere soon. And even if the team breaks down, I don’t see any significant decisions being made before the All Star break. So we wait.

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  6. The symmetry of this tm, as currently constructed, does not inspire confidence in me they are capable of a stretch or WS run. Is it remotely possible? Yes! Our rotation is suspect, a mixed bag of youth, vintage & uncertainty (Framber). Without benefit of a full season will Blanco/Arighetti fade? How effective will Garcia/McCullers be upon their return. Another inj or two ends this conversation.

    Buyers? With what & who? Quantity over quality for what it’s worth.

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    • Our lineup struggles to score. Fans are not fooled by surface averages that don’t reveal how they hit, esp with RISP. You can’t win if you don’t score. Even if scoring just enough the BP can’t cough up leads. (Todays HP ump is horrible).

      Abreu. Goodbye! Singleton. Goodbye! Buyers? Replace them with who and what with? I don’t trust the FO to do anything meaningful to help.

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      • Thank you Diaz/Cabbage for lifting Blanco up. He needed a boost. Will the caboose pull the train the rest of the way or will the engine and passenger cars catch up to help the rest of the way?

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  7. I don’t think anyone wants to make a trade with us right now. In 2016 our front office failed to acquire much needed pitching and our team missed the playoffs. It wasn’t a terrible decision as excepting the first Verlander trade we don’t want to discuss the prospects lost and performances tendered by most of the starters JL did get. So echoing Chip, what would we have to give up and is there any return that could be worth it? The counter to this would be that certain teams may be more than willing to shed payroll…but the Hader acquisition makes it unlikely Houston is going to partake.

    Sitting here today, I think I’m ok with that. We have a lot of money tied up in the offense and the bullpen. We need to lean on them to get enough wins to make the postseason and then hope a three man rotation can hold-up there. Unless Crane is ready to start a rebuild in earnest it would be hard to support getting rid of the few prospects we have in the system.

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  8. At least it was a brief loss, at 2:00. The Cards threw 93 pitches to the Astros. A 3-3 homestead. That won’t help get us to .500.

    I’m glad we all have a day off tomorrow.

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  9. I was a big booster of Espada when he was hired. Now though, I can envision why so many teams passed him over when they interviewed him. The game planning is very suspect. Lately, the club, as was exhibited today, will not force the opposing pitcher to work hard. Swinging early in the count has put the opposing pitchers in the driver’s seat. Today, as Daveb noted above, the Cardinals’ pitchers threw ONLY 93 pitches for the entire game!! An average of 9 per inning. This falls back to pre-game strategy and thus, on Espada.

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  12. The lack of patience at the plate seems to be permeating through the organization.

    I present to you Ashville Tourist player John Garcia…

    “Garcia said. “I’m also trying to hit early in the count. I really don’t like getting deep into at-bats, so if something is going in the zone, I’m going to swing at it. And it definitely worked today.” “

    If the players feel this way and the coaches are allowing it, then the future of the big club is in trouble like they were yesterday.

    This article is on the Crawfish Boxes website.

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  13. I’m going to throw out a question I just posted on the crawfishboxes.

    Has anyone heard anything about the status of JP France? I check the Astros mlb.com web site almost every day for status on folks…..

    Astros injuries and roster moves (mlb.com)

    He is never mentioned and they even give us status on people who have never thrown a pitch for this team.

    Just seems very odd for someone who was really very good for them last season.

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    • I just read that Chandler Rome reported last Friday that France has not begun throwing to date. No other info.

      Regarding Whitley, Rome reported on Sunday that Forrest is out for at least 3 to 4 months with a right lat strain. If anyone knew that, I didn’t.

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      • Dan, at 69, I can identify with him. I’ve always got a couple of issues going on, but I have no choice but to play through it. He can go on vacation.

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  15. Sargeh, I think when guys scuffle at the plate they tend to free swing chasing hits. We all know Bregman has a good eye for the zone and takes his walks. All season he has chased out the zone far more than normal. Early season Diaz disappeared scuffling. Chas is still searching. Yordan’s #’s are ascending, but was off awhile. Altuve/Dubon do not work counts.
    Our offense has been impotent far to often, a fact reflected in the AB’s. When some of the top dogs liven up we’ll see a different offense and better approaches (for some), and a few more wins.

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    • Andre Gary, I brought up that piece because, under Luhnow, the club purposely choose players who were patient at the plate and that continued for years. Maybe this one player is an outlier with his thoughts. I hope the club, under Brown, encourages the minor league players to work counts as they did under Luhnow. That way, we will not see any more games where 93 pitches TOTAL are thrown against the major league club in a game.

      The fact that the major league players on the Astros club are free swinging when scuffling goes back to what I mentioned in an earlier post. That reflects on Espada and his game strategy. The club should purposely work the counts, even when the individual players are struggling. Game strategy is key and following it is imperative. No “cowboy” stuff.

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  16. Tucker still out of the lineup tonight. 😦

    It would be nice to see some Astros acting like professional batters tonight. Also hoping for some solid innings from Framber.

    Other than that, I have very low expectations going into this series.

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  20. That game was exactly what i asked for! As if i ordered it from monkey wards! 🙂

    terrible news about tucker. but i’d rather see him take the time to heal now and go on a tear later than try to play through it and damage that sweet swing of his by compensating for ongoing pain.

    i can’t even watch the replay of that ball hitting his shin. it physically hurts! my left shin & knee took the shots for me as i’m a righty. and for me, it’s 45+ years since my last at bat. not only do i know what he was feeling at that moment, it is with the knowledge of what he will feel in the year 2069 long after i’m worm food.

    the biggest difference being, of course, that i didn’t get paid a nickel for it. so in that sense, my empathy is moderated to a certain extent.

    let’s just hope he can get healed up in a week and come off the injured list hotter than a $3 pistol. and while we’re hoping, can aaron judge suddenly have a week (year) long slump so Tuck can beat him in home runs?

    that’s not too much to ask for, i hope….

    overall, it was just what the bullpen needed and just what the offense needed with the king lying wounded on the field of battle. well done Astros!

    now do it again tomorrow!

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  21. We never know what Framber we’re going to get. But if we’ve got a 200 inning man, it’s him. So he might be the single most important guy on the club right now. If Caratini has to catch him, so be it. I don’t have to like Framber to appreciate his value right now.

    Has the real Yainer shown up? He sure does look more relaxed at the plate. Has the real Jake shown back up again? He sure does not look relaxed at the plate.

    Seems Joey Lops will be joining the club again today. “We just need an extra guy on the bench to help us out”. That from manager Joe last night. So are they really going to bring up Loperfido so he can sit on the bench again? Why him and Cabbage at the same time? Is Yordan going to DH full time? Will Chas or Dubon or Jake play less? Abreu? I sure doubt that. Jose hit a no impact dinger last night and probably earned another month of playing time. Singleton and Lops can get to know each other better as they ride the pine.

    I have no pulse on this club right now, but they did initially bring in Loperfido with some fanfare. They must have thought highly of him. Except for maybe Bagwell. Where did Bagwell go? The kid even got himself an apartment in town. Maybe he has two apartments now. But unless the Astros are not all that excited about what JL provides, I don’t understand why he’s coming back today. If the club thinks he’s a good prospect, he needs to play daily, somewhere. There is no need to mismanage his development along with all the other dubious decisions that have been made.

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  22. I promised my wife I wouldn’t watch golf this week because the US Open is next week and I don’t want want to be a TV hogg.

    Scottie is in the lead at Nicklaus’s Muirfield at the halfway point this morning. What the heck do I do now?

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