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Astros 2024: YIE, but…

As regular readers of this post know, we created the acronym YIE (Yes It’s Early) a few years ago.

We copyrighted that term, and millions of dollars (or yen?) have poured into the coffers here. That is why my family drives two 10-year-old cars, and I still work full-time. But I digress.

The Astros’ sterling 0-4 start to the 2024 season, an almost perfect storm of poor performances, decisions, and luck, has brought this acronym to the forefront once again.

So, let’s take a quick dive into what we know and don’t know at this very, very early point in the season.

Positive side – YIE, but….

  • Cristian Javier looked good and in shape and he pitched like he did two seasons ago.
  • Though they did not pitch as long as you might want, both J.P. France and Hunter Brown pitched solidly. Hunter was assisted into deeper pitch counts with an error behind him and a couple bloop hits extending innings on him.
  • Though he gave up a run on Sunday (again assisted by a bloop two-out hit to start the rally), Josh Hader looks like the closer type arm the Astros were hoping for when they signed him.
  • Yainer Diaz, Mauricio Dubon, and Jeremy Pena are all hitting .400 BA or over, and they are joined by Jose Altuve with over .900 OPS’s at this early point.
  • Though he walked in an inherited runner, Seth Martinez has a 0.00 ERA so far…..
  • The Astros are only 2.5 games out of first place. In 2023, they were often 2.5 games or more out of first place, topping out at 6.5 games out on June 24th. For goodness’ sake. they were 2.5 games out of first place with 3 games to go in 2023 and still won the division.

Negative side – YIE, but….

  • The concern about losing Kendall Graveman, Hector Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek and making the one move for Josh Hader has come home to roost. All tiny samples at this point, but nothing that Rafael Montero (5.40 ERA), Parker Mushinski (13.50 ERA), Tayler Scott (7.71 ERA) or Brandon Bielak (5.40 ERA) have done has made us more comfortable so far.
  • We were worried about Framber Valdez and his psyche. His 6 walks and 1 HBP while urping up 3 runs out of a four-run lead did not make any of us less worried.
  • Concerns about Jose Abreu (read any of reader Steven’s commentary about Abreu’s lack of bat speed) after a bad performance in 2023 have not been placated by a .000 batting average that matches Blutarsky’s GPA. (Animal House reference for our younger readers).
  • Concerns about the effect of demoting the best playoff closer the Astros have ever had, Ryan Pressly, were heightened by a bad spring followed by his giving up 2 runs in his 2 innings of work to date.
  • Perhaps we should have been concerned about the effect of the Hader signing on Bryan Abreu. While Pressly can move on after 2024, Abreu was probably feeling like he earned the closing job starting with 2025, and now he is blocked by Hader and his 5-year contract. After sitting out a 2-game suspension, Abreu was handed a 2-run lead and immediately handed it back, plus an additional run.
  • Folks were concerned about the team handing the CF job to Jake Meyers, who has been struggling ever since his shoulder injury in the 2021 playoffs. Jake is one of several folks at the Mendoza line or below with his .125 BA (his only hit being a HR in his first AB of the season). He is joined by Alex Bregman (.200 BA), Yordan Alvarez (.118 BA), Chas McCormick (.182 BA) and Abreu (.000 BA).
  • No one was concerned about the Astros back end of the bullpen, but Hader, Presley and Abreu have combined for three of the four losses in this tough streak to begin the season.

After some bad clutch-hitting performances, the team has now swung over to hitting in some buzzard’s luck in Game 4 of the Yankee debacle. After Pena and PH Victor Caratini lead off the ninth with singles, Altuve rips one with double written all over it down the third base line that is snagged on a wonderful diving play for a force out at third. Yordan lines one into the left field corner that is 6 inches foul. He follows that with a 390-foot fly to the 399-foot sign in centerfield. Kyle Tucker then lines what looks like a hit to left that is caught with a sliding catch.  The tying and winning runs are stranded, and the streak continues.

Now it gets even tougher as 13 of their next 16 games are against the very tough Blue Jays, Rangers, or Braves, with the seven games against the Rangers taking on specific significance. The Rangers are the type of team that could tear this struggling bullpen asunder.

YIE, but….. the Astros need to turn this train around in a hurry.

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23 responses to “Astros 2024: YIE, but…”

  1. Yep, it’s early, but a lot of worrisome signs. I’m afraid middle relief is going to continue to be a problem, and maybe our 7-8-9 trio won’t be as fearsome as we thought. Framber has to get himself figured out. Like you said, luck was not on our side in the NYY series, but we didn’t help ourselves with a woeful RISP showing. That’s got to change, and so does losing at MMP. It’ll be tough to reverse that trend vs. the Jays, Rangers and Braves. All we can do is hope and keep our fingers crossed! :)

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  2. With the playoff series with the Rangers and now this series with NY, the Astros have lost 8 of their last games at home. Even the A’s haven’t done that. It’s a baffelling thing to me.

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  3. I’m really not concerned at this point, but if I was to be concerned, this would be top of my list:

    1. I have not heard a peep from Dana Brown since prior to Opening Day. I’m not sure if Dana has a whole GM’s job. It seems to be a watered down version, trumped by an Owner/Advisor group. This is unhealthy.
    2. Over and over, we’ve discussed the weak bullpen issue. With time, it will improve when temporary starters can be used in the pen. But Dan, it’s possible the dynamics of the back end of the pen have/will lead to three unhappy closer type guys. Hadar will be off tonight because he just pitched in three non save situations. If I’m Abreu, I want to be starter. If I’m Pressly, I’ve got to dig deep to find a 7th inning adrenaline rush. 
    3. Framber shook off his new catcher a whole bunch of times. He needs to focus on putting the pitches called in the correct location. His private catcher is gone and Framber has not yet moved on from that crushing blow. 
    4. Jose Abreu looks like damaged goods again. Maybe he’s just old. Will he start catching up to fastballs up in the zone come August? I hope the Owner/Advisor group does not give him so much time.   

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  4. On the flip side, there are some things to be optimistic about.

    1. We have an All-Star caliber catcher, not sure when he’ll get the nod, but it won’t take long.
    2. Pena looks more comfortable at the plate. I hate the brain farts, but that might come from hanging out next to Altuve.
    3. When it becomes clear that Jake is not going to be the hitter everyone wants him to be, we might just have a ready replacement on standby. And indeed, if Joey Lops also starts getting regular work at first base in Sugar Land, then we might finally see the end of Jon Singleton.
    4. I feel pretty good about most of our starters.
    5. All of our guys that have hit in the past will start to hit.  
    6. What are we, 7 and 25 at home since August 13? That can’t continue can it? 

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  5. Random thoughts —

    • I’d rather lose 4 games to the Yanks in March than in October. But if the Astros don’t play better they will not be playing anyone in October.
    • This crash and burn at home has got to stop. But is it all between their ears? This is a team that has consistently won on the road since 2017. They have been 312-205 on the road since then – almost as good as at home 319-195. If you drop the goofy results from the short 2020 pandemic season -they are better on the road during that period 303-182 vs. 299-187. Either way if you skip 2020 (9-23 on the road/20-8 at home) they have been a consistently good team both on the road and at home with the sub-2023 home record as an outlier. Makes zero sense.
    • We know Yordan will not continue to have zero RBIs (he looked like he was coming around in the ninth yesterday). We know that Bregman will start hitting and Tucker will be a run producer. But we don’t know about this bullpen. A bullpen that you can’t depend upon not only gives away games but also demoralizes the club. They work to get a lead and then it gets punted away. They work to tie the game and lose it in the end. The team starts expecting bad things to happen.

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    • Based on the lower home averages for the majority of our hitters, I do believe at this point that it is at least partially between the ears. That said, there is a lot going on out there in center on both sides and above the batters eye. Different colors, the staircase, bars, signage, the tall shiny green tower with the H on top, the huge OXY sign, the Budweiser sign…..The Astros can resolve any question of the batters eye being an issue by losing some money in advertising and perhaps some loss of seats by taking all of the perceived distractions away. It does not seem they want to do it though.

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      • Getting the Yankees out of the strike zone seemed like mission impossible, and they are looking at the same signage. Even their 9 hitter was laying off stuff, and this guy hit .211 last year and only made the team on a last second injury.

        Of course, our pitchers did not do their part in tempting them out of the zone that much either.

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  6. Mike Clevinger. After investigating alleged domestic abuse violations, MLB dropped any thoughts of punishment. Is the guy damaged goods at this point though? SI was saying this morning he’s willing to work for something in the 5 million range. I don’t think he’s done yet. If we got him into the rotation it would give us another guy for the pen. 

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  7. It’s probably my fault for watching 2 of the 4 games. They do much better when I don’t watch. I think the glass half full / empty discussion has to revolve around the fact our starters left the game with the lead 3/4 games. The problem is none of them left with a comfortable lead. My fear is we’re right back in the same place as 2023 with our offense struggling at home. The bullpen will be fine if they aren’t protecting one run leads all the time. 

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  8. I’m less concerned with Abreu’s bat speed and more concerned with his eyes. They are just slow. I think he can still park a mistake pitch 400 feet. Or take my head off like a pinata. It just takes him 3/10ths of a second longer to read and decide what to do, so the swing is late. But I bet, by the end of the year, his EV will still be in the 88-90 on average.

    Yes, Dave, I do think once a couple of good things go his way, his confidence gets up, he will follow his career pattern and be better in June/July/August, if he is healthy. But I’m guessing we are looking at another dismal April and May. I am rooting hard for something different every game though. We need this guy.

    I’ve said this a dozen times. Jon Singleton is useless as a bench player. He should be DFA’d. And I hate to say that because I’m human and I don’t want people unemployed. I disagree with most people on here that say he is useless – I think he is a streaky, rhythm hitter, but he can’t find a rhythm as an every-once-in-a-while pinch hitter, a role he is 1 for 19 in so far since he showed up. I think he is still here because the geek squad in the back has Brown convinced that there is something there – guy could probably hit the same .235 as Abreu in 400 PA’s, and have the same power, and draw more walks and see more pitches, but what the geek squad isn’t seeing is how bad he is when he has no rhythm. If the guy is not in a situation where you are going to take that chance and give him 400 PAs then just release him. You would have to be a fool to give him that chance on a team as deep on options as the Astros, so let him go, free up the spot, and get a more athletic, younger, multi-positional talent up here. Think of it like this – yes its AAA, yes, you probably didn’t see it, but Jose Abreu, even against AAA pitching, would never be capable of the streaky moment Singleton had last year. It was incredible. But it doesn’t translate to pinch hitting. There can still be a redemption story out there for him, but it needs to be for a team that can take that chance like the Royals or Marlins.

    I’ve got no ideas for the bullpen. You just have to hope that Martinez, Scott, Mushinski all pitch better. Or you can shuffle the deck chairs on the titanic with a different cast of questionable characters. To be fair to them, Abreu and Hader own two of those losses, so even the back end hasn’t gotten it done. The “big 3” have to pitch better as well.

    It would help if every starter didn’t go either 4 or 5. France at least seeing the 6th and Javier finishing 6 are great, but even at that point you are still seeing some of group of 5 guys (as opposed to the, um, power 3?). We have got to see some 7 inning starts from Framber and JV (when he returns) to limit those group of 5 guys opportunities to lose games. If middle relievers only have to get 3-4 outs as opposed to 7-9, you have to feel better about your chances.

    Throwing strikes is going to be key for Brown. He was all over the place, he threw 3 or 4 pitches 52 feet, bouncing them in. He threw 2 pitches 2 feet over the catchers head. He threw 4 more so far outside that the camera man had to move the camera (not literally, but you get what I mean). He has to limit those obvious waste pitches, they are just useless expended energy, not to mention they help the hitter get a better count and move the needle in their favor. It just gives him no opportunity to pitch ahead and try and be deceptive with location when the pitch isn’t even tempting.

    YIE, but there are things to have legitimate questions about. I wouldn’t worry about Abreu if he was 0-11 because he hit 4 line drives right at people. It’s not the case. He looks like he brought the same swing with him from last April. I wouldn’t be worried about Brown if he just had a few calls not go his way, or he was only 2 inches off the plate instead of 1 – but he threw a dozen pitches 6 inches or more off the plate. That is a sure fire way to see a 4 inning start. Jeremy Pena looks like he isn’t sure what adjustment he wants to make. It’s creating confusion in his swing. And our manager is pinch hitting the guy that has literally the lowest batting average on the team as a pinch hitter in a crucial spot, and killed the rally. And this is before we even talk about the mechanical mess that Bryan Abreu looks like and the fact that Ryan Pressly looks just a little more hittable than last year’s little more hittable Ryan Pressly.

    On the bright side, this blog should be called the Yainer Diaz Fan Blog (YDFB) because we were talking about the guy before any one else was. He looks way more relaxed, still chased a bit more out of the zone in that series than I like, but a lot less than he has. I agree with Dave, future all star. Maybe he becomes the best catcher in the league too.

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  9. Y.I.E. … but here are some things that make you go HMMMMMMM!

    1. Jon Singleton has a higher BA and OBP than Jose Abreu;
    2. Jake Meyers has more home runs than Yordan Alvarez;;
    3. Yainer Diaz has walked more than he has struck out;
    4. The highest OPS #s on the team belong to: Mauricio Dubon and Victor Caratini;
    5. Diaz, Dubon, and Caratini lead the team in RBIs;
    6. The league (actually just the Yanks) is hitting over .300 against five of our pitchers: Valdez, Pressly, Abreu, Bielak, and Mushinski;
    7. Our pitching staff is averaging over 5 walks per 9;
    8. Half (6 of 12) of our pitchers have WHIPs of 2.00 or higher: [Valdez, Abreu, Pressly, Scott, Mushinski, and Bielak]
    9. 3/4 (8 of 12) of our pitchers have ERAs over 4.00 [Valdez, France, Scott, Abreu, Pressly, Bielak, Mushinski, and Montero]
    10. Valdez has given up more walks than he has recorded strikeouts.

    Yes, we have definitely entered … the TWILIGHT ZONE.

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  10. More good news.

    Yainer was not a fluke last year. When a guy hits one 435 feet against 95 half a foot above the zone, where do they pitch him?

    Sounds like Verlander heads to Sugar Land this weekend.

    Pena breaks his curse.

    And proof that all will be well? Bregman is off to his regular crappy start.

    We might get a win tonight.

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  12. Well, I picked the right game to be the first one to watch this year. Blanco had me concerned at first, but a no hitter was certainly a nice surprise comeback.

    Not too worried about the offense (with the exception of JA) as they will gain a lot of confidence from today’s slugfest.

    But the bullpen remains a huge unseen question mark for me.

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  13. What a game – what a start – what a story – what a way to get a first major league win as a manager.

    This hopefully gets the whole team rolling.

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  14. Well I gripe about the lack of innings from starters and here comes Ronel. Great job from a kid that we all know has major league stuff, its just been execution. Adding that change up could be a career changer.

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  16. I claim credit, having left Houston for three weeks. If I get back and we’re 20-4 and then promptly lose on April 20th you’ll know I was right!

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  17. I claim credit, having left Houston for three weeks. If I get back and we’re 20-4 and then promptly lose on April 20th you’ll know I was right!

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  19. Last nights no-no does not change a whole lot, but Ronel Blanco definitely brought some impatient fans back in off the ledge. A wonderful effort. He threw those change-ups more than Diaz wanted them, and they kept working! I loved the come-backer to the mound late. He can catch and throw to first, somewhat of a luxury on our squad. A great way to get this team off the schneid. A win by Framber tonight would also go a long way, maybe further, to righting the ship. If he throws well the audience will definitely breathe easier.

    But more importantly, with Verlander seemingly heading to Sugar Land this weekend, we might have him back sooner than later. And Ronel could become our new Javier in the pen. There will be days when the change does not work, but at least some help in that pen might be on the way, quicker than we thought.

    And of course our 2,4 and 6 hitters still are not hitting. Two of them will. But Bregman is a mess again, so he might take until early summer.

    Not sure what to think about Pena. I can’t be this easy. I’ll wait until mid May to see that he’s doing. But that homer sure put a smile on his face. Burden lifted.

    Last year after April 4, Yainer Diaz never had a hitless streak go more than two games. I don’t think he’s ever going to be a real slumper.

    And maybe I should not write Jake off yet either. My concern is that he seems to be a dead pull hitter at this point. I don’t know if that will work for him long term.

    Once again it’s a good day to be an Astro fan. A bit of caution though. We’re still going to experience some meltdowns, especially in the bullpen. 

     

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  21. I guess the Jays had trouble with the MMP batter’s eye.

    Ronel was in sync with his catcher last night.  He reportedly shook off only two pitches.

    Someday we will thank our former manager for delaying our young catcher’s development so he could learn to handle pitchers better…  Or not.

    I saw him throw a pitch there to Yainer D
    I knew BAA must have been about .217
    The crowd was cheering strong
    Playing his entrance song
    And I could tell it wouldn’t be long till it was strike three, yeah three

    And I could tell it wouldn’t be long till it was strike three, yeah three

    Singing, I love Ronel Blanco
    So put another K in the scorecard, baby
    I love Ronel Blanco
    So don’t waste your time he’s got you beat
    Ow!

    He was so hyped, he forgot those batter’s names
    But that don’t matter, he said, ’cause it’s all the same
    He said, “Can I fling a stone
    And you can cry and moan”
    And next batter moving on, another strike three, yeah three
    Next batter moving on, another strike three, yeah three

    Singing, I love Ronel Blanco
    So put another K in the scorecard, baby
    I love Ronel Blanco
    So don’t waste your time he’s got you beat
    Ow!

    He said, “Can I fling a stone
    And you can cry and moan”
    And next batter moving on, another strike three, yeah three
    Next batter moving on, another strike three, yeah three

    Singing, I love Ronel Blanco
    So put another K in the scorecard, baby
    I love Ronel Blanco
    So don’t waste your time he’s got you beat
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeKzI-YFseU

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