Astros’ 2024 Offense: Addition by addition (And a little subtraction)

In the early days of the Astros’ bottoming out and turning around, a component of the improvement was a bit of addition by subtraction.

They would go from 2013 to 2014, and taking at bats away from Brandon Barnes and L.J. Hoes was a big plus. Note – giving those at bats to Dexter Fowler and George Springer was a significant component of the improvement.

Though it did not feel like it at times, the Astros offense was quite good in 2023. Third in the AL in runs per game (5.10), BA (.259), OPS (.768), and tied for second in OBP (.331). But it felt like the Astros could have been a superior offense like back in 2017 and 2019 with just a bit of a re-arrangement of the lineup and some other tweaks. Looking ahead to 2024…..

Additions by Subtraction

  • The main addition by subtraction for this lineup goes without saying, but I need to fill some blog space, so I will mention it. Martin Maldonado and his awful offense in 362 ABs have taken his talents to the Windy City, where his swings and misses can add to that nickname. His 66 OPS+ was 244th in the AL, and his .191 BA was tied for 271st in the AL…you get the idea.
  • The players that probably got more exposure than they should have, David Hensley, Jon Singleton, Bligh Madris, Grae Kessinger, Cesar Salazar, and Rylan Bannon, combined for a non-robust .152 BA in 236 ABs. Hopefully, these ABs will be by other folks or by better versions of these players in 2024.
  • Though Corey Julks did some good things for the Astros, his 1-for-45 stretch shortly before he was sent down to the minors was a giant black hole in the lineup for a 20-game chunk of the season.

Additions by Addition

  • Primarily due to his broken wrist in the WBC, Jose Altuve only played in 90 games in 2023. If you bump his numbers up to 150 games, let’s say, that could have resulted in 50 extra runs scored, 11 more home runs, 35 more RBIs, and 9 more SBs.
  • The same thing with Yordan Alvarez, who only played 114 games. Jack that up to 150 games, and you might have added 24 runs, 9 HRs, and 30 RBIs to his 2023 totals.
  • Yainer Diaz had the type of season as a rookie that, because of limitations by a now-retired toothpick chewer, had the fans begging for much more. What if he produces in the same way in 2024 but plays in 30 more games? That would look like 65 runs/ 30 HRs/ 77 RBIs, which for an Astros team that has been sucking the tailpipe on catcher offensive production over the years would look sterling.
  • Chas McCormick’s .273 BA/ .353 OBP/ .842 OPS slash line should have merited more than 403 ABs. If you bump him up another 150 ABs in 2024, it might result in 81 runs / 30 HRs/ 96 RBIs.
  • Alex Bregman is playing for a new contract, and Kyle Tucker will be moving within one season of free agency. They should be motivated to put forth the best versions of themselves.
  • Last year, Jose Abreu slashed .237 BA/ .296 OBP/ .680 OPS. The year before, he slashed .304/.378/.824. If he could only split the difference – say .270 BA/.340 OBP/.775 OPS that would be a nice addition to the lineup.

Sure, those plus things may not all happen in one shot, but there is certainly enough potential here to think this could end up being the best lineup in the American League.

←
→

21 responses to “Astros’ 2024 Offense: Addition by addition (And a little subtraction)”

  2. I think your outlook is sound and I think the Astros offense will excel. It will be interesting to see how Meyers does under a new manager. He seems like a weaker part of the lineup, but he deserves a look from a new Astros boss.

    Like

    Reply

  3. At least for now, Jake remains a quality defensive replacement without an arm on a 26 man Astro roster. But he really has not hit since August of 2021. That said, the Astros have the luxury of a loaded line up that will allow him to hit 9th early in the year with the hopes he can discover something at the plate. I don’t expect more than what he gave us in 2023 though. I’m hopeful some new kid will show up in camp and turn heads.

    Like

    Reply

  4. Yesterday I asked the Mrs. to join me for an Astros update.
    We discussed Bregman’s contract situation as well as Tucker’s.
    I showed her our top 30 prospect list and we read up on our 3B prospects and asked her what she thought. She said that we were very short on decent prospect
    replacements at 3B.
    Then we read all the bios of the OF prospects in our system and speculated about having two years before Tucker reaches free agency.
    Then I asked her what she thought and she said that we have more time and more prospects to fill our outfield needs than our 3B needs.
    This morning I looked up the potential MLB free agents for 2025 at 3B and cringed.

    Like

    Reply

  5. Subtraction by Subtraction: Our backup C position looks to be weaker since Yainer will be starting.

    If Yordan, Chas and Meyers are scheduled to have more playing time in the outfield, maybe the Astros plan to rest Tucker and use him more at DH this year. Was KTuck all “tuckered out” during the postseason last year?

    Of our starting lineup, everyone except 1B Jose Abreu was developed in the Astros minor leagues; which is quite impressive to me.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  6. There’s another way of looking at the catcher position.
    Diaz might hit better than Diaz did last year. I keep thinking he’ll figure out lefties and really become a good hitter. And Vince will in all likelihood produce more than MM did.

    And with those bench guys combining to hit a collective .152, maybe Cabbage really is worth a shot. Beyond that, I really do think we’ll see a Wagner or a Melton or a Loperfido at some point this year too.

    Like

    Reply

  7. I personally think the signing of Victor Caratini was a very underrated and necessary signing. As much as we love Yainer, he’s never caught more than 441.1 innings in any professional season, which was 51 games behind the dish. I can’t imagine they plan to ramp up his usage at catcher to over 100 games. Thus, having a very solid backup like Caratini is huge, IMO. Diaz will likely get some starts at DH, and possibly 1B, to get his bat in the lineup more, but I think it would be a huge mistake to have him catch over 100 games, and I expect it to be closer to 90.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

    • Hey Tim – great to hear from you.
      Solid point on adjusting Yainer’s workload a bit – though I do want to see him with some DH time and maybe a handful of games at 1B

      Like

      Reply

      • Thanks, Dan. I’ve been reading the articles and comments. It’s been a while since I posted a reply. I hope you and everyone here is doing well.

        Like

      • We seem to be doing fine around here – love to hear from folks that haven’t posted in a while – don’t be a stranger!

        Like

    • Agree. I hope Yainer stretches to closer to 110, but it’s not like he is going to catch 140. Eventually, I would love to see him out from behind the plate because I think his bat is special.

      It will probably come down to pitching assignments. Offensively they both struggle against lefties. The question is if Diaz does come to play a little 1B or DH, neither of which I really expect to see much, who is Caratini replacing in the lineup? Whether it’s an off day for Abreu or Alvarez or McCormick, it’s a downgrade for that day, though many of us probably think it’s time for Abreu to be a 130 game guy and not a 155 game guy.

      It’s odd about Diaz. Our other free swinger at SS has a .307 career BA against lefties, and well, not so much against righties. Why? Because he doesn’t have to worry about the slider moving away from him. I would think Diaz, who is a better hitter – at least bat to ball wise – would also hit lefties better for the same reason. Maybe 105 PA’s is just too small a sample to see.

      Like

      Reply

      • Maybe he has better “habits” against right handers, concentrates on staying in there and maybe hitting the other way. Maybe he is putting pressure on himself to hit lefties and ends up a little anxious and trying to pull everything.

        Like

  10. Generally, I don’t think the offense was a problem. Season ending stats can skew – its not about if you were 4th in runs or 3rd in OPS, its more about how well do you handle good pitching not how bad you beat up bad pitching. It was the Rangers problem for years – in a 3 game set they could outscore opponents 15-8 but lose 2 of those games. They finally figured it out by getting guys like Seager that can hit good pitching as well as mediocre pitching.

    The question is when we face good pitching do we have guys that scrap, make them throw strikes, and can have a good at bat against the best pitchers. I think we generally do. Pena and Diaz will certainly frustrate us at times out of the zone, Abreu will struggle with anything over 98, but the heart of the lineup, Tucker, Alvarez, Altuve, Bregman, they have good at bats even against the best pitchers.

    The Astros were shut out only 6 times last year. The Rangers were shut out 11 times. We still have a deeper lineup that can scrap better.

    We just have to figure out why our pitching went as far back as it did from 2022, and can they find the happy medium between being the best staff in baseball in 2022 and middle of the road in 2023.

    Like

    Reply

Leave a comment