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A couple Astros’ thoughts: Billy Wags and LMJ

Billy Wagner

Billy Wagner falling five votes short of the Hall of Fame was a bummer, but not as big of a bummer as when Craig Biggio fell two votes short in January 2014. Here is a doubleheader column by Brian Todd and me when that happened.

Friend of the blog – daveb – made a great case for Wagner in yesterday’s comments.

“There are just seven relief pitchers enshrined at Cooperstown.

Of those seven, Billy Wagner has the lowest WHIP at 0.998.
He’s got the second-lowest ERA at 2.31.
He’s got the fourth most saves at 422.
He’s a 7 time All Star, tying him for 4th in appearances of the seven in the Hall.
He’s fifth in strikeouts with 1196.

My guess is that he’ll be voted in on his 10th and final ballot next year. It’s simply the one-way baseball “writers” can control an element of MLB. It is their Hall of Fame. There are other worthy players out there. And there are other guys in the Hall that really don’t qualify.”

One of the additional things I wanted to point out about Billy Wagner is that he was not a shooting star like Joe Mauer, who averaged less than 6 HRs and 57 RBIs with a pedestrian .777 OPS over his last eight seasons.

Billy Wags over his last 8 seasons, when he was 31 to 38 years old pitched in 467 games, had a 1.99 ERA and 0.922 WHIP.  In that same age range, Mariano Rivera pitched in 517 games and had a 2.01 ERA and a .947 WHIP. Darn close.

Billy Wagner did not retire because he had fallen on hard times. His last season in 2010 with the Braves, he went 7-2, 37 saves, 1.43 ERA, 0.865 WHIP and a K rate of 13.5 K/9 IP in 71 appearances.

Some people say he was not voted in because he was tied to Houston and not the big cities, but that is silly, as his last seven seasons were split between big eastern favorites – The Mets, Phillies, Red Sox, and Braves.

No, I’m sure that his downfall was his struggles in playoff baseball, where he was 1-1, with 3 saves, a 10.01 ERA, and 1.971 WHIP in 14 appearances. Now, maybe he would have done better than that if he had had more shots in the postseason, but he would have never touched Mariano Rivera’s 96 appearances and insane 0.70 ERA.

But then again, the Hall of Fame let Lee Smith in, who had pitched in only 4 postseason games, going 0-2 with 1 save, an 8.44 ERA and a 1.875 WHIP.

In the end, it is almost a slam dunk that getting this close Billy Wagner will assuredly make it next season in his last shot at making the Hall before being put into the recycle bin of the Veteran’s Committee. But this should have already happened.

LMJ

I was listening to sports talk radio on Tuesday afternoon and they were playing a recording of Lance McCullers Jr. where he was talking about how he was feeling – throwing off flat ground at 80 mph (I’ve read this book before) and that he was hoping to start rehab “IN THE SUMMER”.

The radio guys were flabbergasted by this.  I guess I have become cynically used to never relying on this guy, but gee whiz, the last time he pitched in a ball game was Nov.1, 2022, in Game 3 of the World Series, where he gave up 5 home runs in 4.1 innings.

The Astros must think about what they will do with him if/when he returns – let’s say July or August or whatever? Do you put him in the rotation where he has always excelled (ERA-wise not innings pitched-wise)? Do they use him as a two or three inning reliever once a week? Do they have him as a one-inning option in high leveraged situations – maybe two times a week?

He’s only pitched 265 innings in the last four seasons. Other than the 2020 COVID abbreviated season when he was needed for 11 starts in 60 games, only in 2021, when he threw 162 innings, has he come close to what you would expect from a starter in a full season.

His 3.48 career ERA is very good and the Astros would take that in a New York minute when they look at the 2023 ERAs of Hunter Brown (5.09), Cristian Javier (4.56), Jose Urquidy (5.29) and J.P. France (3.83).  But what kind of expectations can they have when he just can’t stay on the field. Even in 2021, when he was very good (3.16 ERA) for those 162 innings, he broke down in the playoffs, and losing him may have cost them the World Series against Atlanta.

This is a tough one. They are on the hook for $53 million over the next three seasons and have not a clue what, if anything, he will bring to the table. They can’t trade him. They can’t pencil him in; they can only hope.

 

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29 responses to “A couple Astros’ thoughts: Billy Wags and LMJ”

  2. We might have reached the point where Billy Wagner should have pulled LMJ aside and taught him how to throw left handed. Being serious, LMJ has already had Tommy John surgery and last June had a procedure to repair his flexor tendon. Six months is a reasonable timetable on that, but my suspicion is that if they are targeting next summer for return to 100% activity then he and the doctors must have decided it was not the only cause of the forearm problems. Based on the dollar amounts for free agent pitchers and the amount of dead money other teams are carrying for injured players I don’t think the Astros are in a significantly worse spot than most teams due to his injury, but as a fan it’s disappointing to not get to see him pitch.

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  3. Josh Hader is a really good reliever.
    Ryan Pressley is a really good reliever.
    Bryan Abreu has become a really good reliever.
    Raphael Montero is a good reliever.
    Forrest Whitley has the stuff and might have the mentality to become a really good reliever.
    LMJ as always shown that, when he is healthy, he could be a really good reliever and he is only 30 years old. That is prime for a reliever.
    If you throw in a couple of more relievers already in their system, you have the makings of the top bullpen in baseball for the coming years.
    The top bullpen in baseball already in place allows you to find starting position players and rotation pieces that will be needed from your minor leagues and free agency.
    And that formula keeps you in contention for years.

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  4. I don’t have much thought about the HoF. I don’t even know who was inducted last year. Sometimes when I’m listening to the radio I hear the arguments for the Dale Murphys or the Felix Hernandez types. I just kinda shrug. From 2009 to 2014 you could argue Hernandez was the best pitcher in baseball. The rest of the time, he was anywhere from average to below average. Putting that in the HoF and a plaque next to Greg Maddux is ridiculous. It diminishes just how good Maddux was. Just my take. Wagner should be in, because it wasn’t like this 3 year run of dominance, it was sustained, for a long period of time.

    When I listen to Mad Dog talk on the radio I realize he is just a loud mouth that screams at a microphone when someone makes him mad, and he loves to talk about players, but he rarely talks about the game. Sure, he will get a manager or player to come on for a puff interview, but you will never hear him break down a 5th inning pitching change, the options available, the matchup the manager selected, and how that impacted the rest of the game. That is because he is like most sportswriters, he doesn’t KNOW the game. He knows enough to stick to talking about their domestic violence claims, or their batting average. He actually doesn’t know how to evaluate. And this guy has a hall of fame vote.

    I don’t see a path for McCullers that is anything other than a starter. IF his velocity is still 95+ when he gets back with that curve he certainly has shut down stuff, but that is a capital IF and you have to consider that often times relievers have to be more durable than starters and their usage is less predictable. Do you think he could pitch in 65-70 games in a year, getting up to warm up another 10 times, versus pitching every 6 days with a BP day in there? If the velocity isn’t there, and he has rely on multiple pitches, that is harder to do as a reliever. Besides he is too expensive to just be a BP piece for the 5-6th innings. I am like everyone else, I’m tired of Hangnail McCullers too, but the Astros have no choice but to keep throwing money at his rehab and medical, because even if you cut him you will be on the hook for most of that, and he is getting that contract anyway. Just keep trucking there little engine that could, see if you can get back up that hill and toe that rubber.

    Pressly is a concern of mine. For four years he has been the captain of that bullpen. In 2020 his ERA was 3.43. Last year it was 3.58. This is the type of thing Russo would say, see his is fine, sometimes those seasons happen. But – in 2020 he had an EV against of 89. His K rate was 31.9%. His FB rate was around his career numbers. LD rates, around career numbers. In 2023, all of those things were elevated. Those stats behind the stats, they look like a guy that is 33 going on 34. They look like a pitcher that hitters are picking up a little better out of the hand, they look like a pitcher they are getting under instead of over, they look like a pitcher where hitters are elevating the ball more and putting on the ground less. What does it mean? The end is coming. Is that end 2024? Probably not, but at this point, Abreu is a far superior option as primary setup man and Hader is a far superior closer. I’m not really surprised the Astros went and got the best closer in the game for 5 years. Pressly’s peripherals look like a guy that could blow 10 saves this year. And there is no telling where his phyche is about it.

    I still feel bad for Bryan Abreu. He had to be thinking by 2025 he is the closer, and those saves would buoy those arbitration hearings.

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  5. You folks always give me plenty to chew on here.

    – Daveb very succinct – if you don’t have expectations relative to LMJ, you won’t be disappointed.
    – Devin I am with you – it is very concerning that LMJ is still talking like he is just a few months away from the injury – like this is normal
    – OP, I would love a story where the Astros’ bullpen returns to the 2022 monster that was so crucial in their championship run.
    – Steven – Good HOF take. Yes, I feel for Abreu, who was terrific the last two seasons. We don’t know what the future holds. Pressly leaves maybe as soon as after 2024. Hader could get hurt along the way and give Abreu a big opportunity to shine. But it sure feels like that if Hader stays here and relevant through the length of his contract, that Abreu will be looking to get out.

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      • I’m probably the crazy one. Bryan Abreu has been the best pitcher on this team for 2 years. Not the best reliever. Best pitcher. I think if he was moved to starter – he would be the best pitcher on this team. Well, Hader makes an argument for the best pitcher on the staff, but outside of a phenomenal 2023 Hader has had his ups and downs.

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    • I didn’t really understand the criticism levelled against Hader last year. The Padres were not in a position to win the World Series. The team vastly underperformed against payroll and talent expectations and found themselves two games behind the Dbacks despite winning their last 5 games and 14 of their last 16. One of those losses came in game 157 of the season when SF put up 2 runs in the eighth and won 2-1. If we’re talking about game 162 and the WC hung in the balance I think he and they might play it differently, but baseball is a team game and you can’t expect one guy to make up all the ground when you dig such a hole.

      Having said that, if Hader is now strictly a 1 inning pitcher I see that opening the door for Abreu to capitalize and hopefully offset some of Steven’s concern for his future bank account. If the team is good enough to take a lot of late inning leads into the ninth inning but not good enough to be in non-save situations we could see him getting double digit save opportunities. The one complaint I had about Pressly was that I didn’t feel as though he handled it well entering in tied games in the ninth. Obviously we’ll have to see how Espada wants to use his pen in those situations, but he now has options and as long as those three are pitching well we should see them all get a chance at some glory….even with Hader’s contract clause rewarding him for winning awards.

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  8. At this stage of Wagner’s attempt to enter the HOF, we must be patient as a fanbase to not turn off the five voters he needs to get in.
    I’m sure their reasons for not voting for him are pure and that Billy will be a better pitcher in 2024 than he was in 2023 and will then earn those five additional votes.

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  9. It is astounding to me that eight teams, so far have decided to go over the luxury tax level.
    But I mentioned a couple of years ago that there will come a time when teams start to have too much salary tied up and the the next CBA would be a war because of it.
    The amazing thing is that clubs in big markets like Chicago and Anaheim and Boston are not in it to win it

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  11. LMJ is a write off until he is !00% healthy. I will add Graveman and Luis Garcia to that mix also. All of them will be put on the 60-day IL on the first day the team is allowed to, freeing up three spots on the 40-man. Their salaries are just a cost of doing business and are currently the reason the Astros are over the luxury tax line.
    LMJ’s “summer rehab” is the key to him returning this year or next year. Patience and hope are the keys to him furthering his career at this point.

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  12. An article In the athletic (that I won’t pay for – but my friend Justin told me about) is talking about how prospects from the Dominican are being caught lying about their age. It specifically says the Astros are most affected with 3 prospects that have been caught.
    We may end up losing those prospects.

    The article was written be Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal who revel in our suffering

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  13. I just read the article. There was no hint of gloating by the writers of the piece. They simply noted the Astros got hit the hardest, with three players older than they were reputed to be. The article also noted that Dana Brown had no comment.

    I don’t think it’s a good look for the Astros though, and specifically Brown. His employees have to get the due diligence done and done accurately.

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    • I would blame the Astros if they were helping the players hide their true age – but I’m not sure if I blame them if someone lied to them directly

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      • My thought exactly. I hope they have copies of any incorrect birth certificates presented to them.
        Provenance, baby, provenance!

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  14. Good morning,

    Unfortunately, this has been a big problem for many years. The article suggests that most recently, up to 50 players are involved in age fraud. I wish I could share the Athletic article. When the system (or lack of a system) has teams and player representatives doing handshake agreements for kids that are 12, 13, 14 years old, that system is not broken, it never worked. It’s wrong. Then you’ve got the issue of 20 year old prospects with documents that present them as 16. A 16 year old kid is far more valuable, but is he too young? We don’t sign 16 year olds in the US. MLB thinks the problem would go away with an international draft. The players association seems to be blaming the clubs. If I’m MLB, I announce that the 2025 signing event has been cancelled and a new system will be developed. That would send shock waves through MLB and Latin America.

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