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Rating the Astros’ Top 10 players heading into 2024

The Astros return almost their whole core (outside the bullpen) in 2024 with a few additions and the possible return of Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia. It’s never easy predicting what will really happen in any season, as the injury bug can slice the knees out from under any psychic.

But that never stopped us here at Chipalatta from giving it a shot.

So, here are our predictions on the Astros’ Top 10 players for the 2024 season.

10. Cristian Javier – I can hear it now. That’s way too low for the Astros third starter. Well, for those who like to compare players using WAR, would you be surprised by being told that Javier had the 15th highest WAR (per Baseball Reference) for all Astro players in 2023. (Note: both Kendall Graveman and Justin Verlander exceeded his WAR when you total their numbers from their former team and the Astros). Cristian needs to step it up to get into the Top 10 and it says here that he will knock that ERA down and get back in his Invisiball groove.

9. Jeremy Pena – Even though he seemed to hit the wall in his sophomore season, he did make two improvements that may pay off in the future. He dropped his K% from 24.2 to 20.4% while also raising his walk rate from a bad 3.9% to a below-average 6.8%. Unfortunately, along the way, his power stroke disappeared. But putting his fine glove with a better bat in 2024 would easily put him in the top 10 of the Astros.

8. Chas McCormick – This may be selling Chas a bit short, as he had a very solid 3.6 WAR in 2023 while being anchored to the bench for 47 of the team’s 162 games. But his .331 BAbip points to a possible digression in 2023. But being given the starting spot for the season might also unleash even more from the former 21st-round draft choice.

7. Framber Valdez – If 2022 Framber shows up – he could be Top 3 on this team. If second-half 2023 Framber returns in a meltdown funk, he could drop out of the Top 10. So, we will hope that he is at least solidly good in 2024.

6. Yainer Diaz – There is always some angst when you “project” anyone from part-time to mostly full-time. With more data/film/info on him will he turn that 22 HR/ 60 RBI part-time into a 30 HR/ 80 RBI follow-up? But with the Astros putrid history for offense by catchers, he could top them all within a few years, just like Carlos Correa did at shortstop.

5. Justin Verlander – Justin’s 2023 split season between the Astros and Mets (13-8, 3.22 ERA, 1.133 WHIP) was eerily similar to his 2017 split season between the Astros and the Tigers (15-8, 3.36 ERA, 1.175 WHIP).  A return to his 2018, 2019 or 2022 seasons would move him to 1 or 2 on this list. A repeat of 2023 puts him here.

4. Jose Altuve – This may well end up a low ranking, but Jose needs to be healthier, and that is not something that automatically happens at his age. He was very impactful in 2023, but due to his broken hand and his later oblique injury he only played in 90 games in 2023.

3. Alex Bregman – Maybe this is a little high for Bregman, but he had the second-highest WAR on the club behind K-Tuck in 2023. He gets on base, he knocks in runs, he scores runs, and he plays a top-notch third base, so we expect him to do it again in his contract year.

2. Kyle Tucker – The top spot needs to be between Tucker and the man, who is rated there in this list. Tucker does so many things well, from hitting, hitting with power, and running the bases through fielding. But he ends up behind a generational hitting talent…..

1. Yordan Alvarez – Even with missing almost 30% of the 2023 season, Yordan still ended up with 31 HRs and 97 RBIs, and his .293 BA/ .407 OBP/ 0.990 OPS slash was just excellent. If he stays healthy and continues his punishment of AL pitching, he can be not only the Astros’ best player, but the MVP of the AL.

There is one man’s Astros Top 10 list. Whatcha think?

 

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33 responses to “Rating the Astros’ Top 10 players heading into 2024”

  1. I like your list and don’t have a problem with it. As usual you put a lot of work into it.
    I don’t think that baseball know-it-alls want to even think about the Astros because they might know what is coming. They wish the Astros would go away and leave their favorites alone. The Astros won’t go away.

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  2. Predictions are always fun, especially in baseball. After all, who would have thought Arizona would have made it to the World Series last year? I’ll go with some “old guys” at the top.

    1. Altuve – Because, why not?
    2. Verlander – Kate keeps him young
    3. Yordan – Will break the Astros season HR record
    4. KTuck – Will get his 30/30 this year
    5. Javier – Invisi-ball returns (or should I say disappears)
    6. Chas – Regular playing time means more banana pudding
    7. Framber – Gets his mojo back
    8. Yainer – Silver Slugger!
    9. Pena – Gold Glove!
    10. Bregman – Does not have a bad year, but everyone above him has better years

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  4. As an Astros fan I have a couple decades of experience reading the paper that will not be named and convincing myself that some rookie or veteran free agent we signed because no one else wanted him was going to put up an MVP-caliber year and carry us to the WS. Trying to stay realistic, your rankings are interesting because I could see a couple things happen:
    1. Altuve continues to prove everyone wrong and plays another season worthy of the HOF…or he contracts the Jose Abreu disease and starts to show his age.
    2. Verlander comes out and mows everyone down with an eye on another big, offseason contract at the destination of his choosing…or some of that age or wear and tear catches up and limits how much value Crane gets from a big contract offset by what the Mets are paying him to not pitch in NY.
    3. Bregman is pissed we didn’t offer him the contract like Ohtani got and puts up a season that has him in the MVP discussion so he can give Brown the bird next December and sign for big bucks out West…or Bregman continues to look 5 years older at times but has enough hot streaks to give him a WAR that is very respectable.
    4. Alvarez continues to crush the ball and amazes everyone again…or the aliens return and take him away because his home planet needs him.

    I would never have predicted that Mauricio Dubon would be so valuable in 2023. If he cracks the top 10 in 2024 I hope it’s for his ability to play so many positions giving Espada the chance to actually rest players when they need it rather than because he wanted to have a lineup set a week in advance.

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    • I suspect that if the aliens come for Yordan that we will call on Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones to fight them off. Heck, we have a lot of concealed and unconcealed weapons here in Houston – it could be quite a battle.

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  5. Fangraphs says Altuve accumulated 4.0 WAR in only 90 games in 2023. That inspired them to project him to accumulate only 3.7 WAR in 2024 in 145 games.
    Fangraphs says Chas accumulated 3.8 WAR in 2023, while only playing in 115 games. Now that he is named a regular in LF, Fangraphs projects him to accumulate only 2.0 WAR in 123 games. By the way, they project him to become a below average outfielder for the first time in his career, now that he will be old at age 28. By the way, I read 30 year old Harrison Bader described as an elite outfielder today, now that he is a NY Met. He was so bad last season that the Yankees just released him and the Reds picked him up. I guess it is who you play for that makes you elite! More later because the dryer buzzed. Oh my, the trials of a blogger!

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    • Dan, I looked and I find that we haven’t heard from Dave since the afternoon of the 27th. Am I right?
      That is a big worry. I think he communicated with us thru his phone.
      God, I hope he is OK!

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  9. I heard from daveb – he is ok but has a health issue that is affecting his ability to read and work for any length of time. He will be on less while he’s working thru this

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  10. Morning guys, really appreciate the concern. I’ll be back full-time before Lance. Looking at that list of ten, we’ve got guys that are 26, 26, 28, 25, 26 and 26. They certainly have not passed their prime. Chas is the grampa of the group. Gosh, if somehow we got Tucker signed, we’d have a very solid core going forward without any help from the minors. And some help will come too.

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  11. Can’t argue with that list. Small differences in me for order – I would put Altuve 2nd, move Tucker and Bregman to 3/4, put Bryan Abreu 9, move Pena off the list, and maybe Pressly at 10 instead of Javier. But small fry differences.

    This team needs Framber to be back to the 17-6 guy and a top 5 player on the team versus a 12-11 guy that is just a 6-10 guy. I love JV as much as anyone else, me and wife do JV day everytime he is scheduled to pitch and usually do dogs or burgers on his day on the hill (we say its our day on the grill). We are cheesy as cheesy gets. But JV is 41, he aint gonna go 18-4 with a 1.75. I think he will still be effective, but he was a middling playoff guy before he got to his 40s, it won’t be easier for him in October. This team needs Framber.

    Hope you feel better there Dave. I had Flu A right after Thanksgiving, and it’s been sitting on me so long that I ended up back at the doctor yesterday. You are echoing the same thing I’ve been saying the whole time. Tuck, Alvarez, Chas, Yainer, Javier, Brown, Pena, Garcia, these guys are not old. I won’t count Abreu because I try and forget he is here, but if you don’t, Altuve is the old man at 34, which is certainly not that old. Verlander and Abreu give this team an appearance of old, but its not. Now does it stay together, I don’t know, if people think it’s expensive now wait until it’s time to deal with Yainer and Chas and Garcia if you are already paying Tuck and Alvarez and Altuve and Framber. Certainly some of those pieces will not be here long term.

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    • I did look at the 2023 baseball reference listing of WAR for players in putting together my list. I did not follow it to the tee but it gave me some idea on relative values. One of the striking things was Pena with a 3.8 WAR while Bryan Abreu had 2.5 and Pressly only 0.1
      I almost put Abreu in the top 10 but did not. I never considered Pressly for it – but of course he could get there with a 2022 type season.

      I appreciate that others have all sorts of different views of this – that is what makes it fun. For instance, Jose Abreu had a 4.2 WAR in 2022. I know he may never get there again, but then again he could….

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      • I get it Dan but WAR is about opportunity also. It’s hard to put together a huge WAR if you are a reliever, it’s only 65-70 innings. But Abreu pitches 65-70 of the most important innings we have. You saw first hand how Montero was blowing up the 7th/8th inning high leverage spots, his WAR is probably not as bad as his contribution to us dropping 16 games from the previous season shows. It’s always my problem with accumulative stats like WAR, they don’t always show the most important moments.

        I initially thought to argue that B. Abreu is one of the 5 most important guys on this team. But it’s not an argument about most important because you said best. If I was going to argue best, I could argue that right now, at this very second, he is the BEST pitcher on the staff, in that if I have one out to get, against one batter, with everything on the line, he is the guy I want on the mound. Him over Verlander, him over Framber, him over Pressly, him over even Javier, who would be my second choice. WAR isn’t going to show that because the accumulation of ABs/IPs that allow others to have more.

        He is certainly the most important pitcher we have. Remove any of the starters, we can survive, including JV or Framber. Remove Bryan Abreu from the bullpen right now and we are a dumpster fire down there.

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      • I think that is a great point Steven – I agree with you that he is was probably our most impactful pitcher, not only the guy you wanted to put out there to get one out but probably the one pitcher the other guys did not want to face.
        If I had to do this again – I could easily put him in here.

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  12. I see this article as a realistic view, rather than the gleeful blabbering of a circling buzzard:
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/is-2024-the-end-of-the-astros-as-we-know-them/
    What it is going to take is some thoughtful and heartfelt compromising from the Astros and the players involved to keep the ship from sailing over the horizon.
    Dana Brown and Jim Crane need to put proper finishing touches on this machine in order to transition into the next dynasty.

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    • This has been happening for years and I don’t think people across the country have appreciated the job done by our front offices. The only Astros remaining from the following teams are:
      2015 Altuve, LMJ, and Tucker! Wait, that was Preston…not Kyle.
      2017 Altuve, LMJ, Verlander, and Bregman.
      2019 Altuve, Bregman, Verlander, Framber, and 100 combined games from Yordan and Tucker. (LMJ injured)
      2021 Altuve, Bregman, Yordan, Tucker, Chas, Jake Meyers, LMJ, Framber, Urquidy, Garcia, Javier, Pressly, Graveman, and Abreu.

      A lot of the guys from those earlier teams aren’t even in baseball anymore despite not being that old. It feels like every year we’ve lost a star: Springer, Cole, Correa, Verlander and solid supporting guys.

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    • Tremendous article.

      I often wonder what would the Astros payroll look like if they paid Springer what Toronto did, if they were the ones that gave Cole that money, if they gave Morton the contract the Braves did, if they gave Correa the bank he wanted. Would it be 400M?

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  13. Yesterday, the Astros claimed reliever Declan Cronin, 26, off waivers from the CWS.
    To make room for him, the Astros designated reliever Joel Kuhnel, 29, for assignment.

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    • Kuhnel had one option remaining at 29.
      Cronin has three options remaining at age 26.
      I will leave comparisons of their abilities, stuff, etc, up to others who are familiar with that.

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    • Getting Will’s dad in the Hall of Fame would make me very happy. I always loved a 100 mph fastball coming out of a 5′-10″ body. He was nails for us (except for the post season).

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  16. Brantley announced he will retire.

    I’m guessing he wasn’t getting anything more than minimum salary offers, and for a guy that has made enough money that he doesn’t need to concern himself with the work of continuing to rehab that shoulder and stay in game shape for what will be pennies, why bother. I get it.

    Maybe we can get that guy on staff at some point. First opening they get for roving hitting instructor Uncle Mike should be the first call. He may not be interested but he is obviously respected with the players in the organization.

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    • Yeah we were talking about Dana Brown’s undying love for Melton back when it came out a couple weeks ago. We were wondering if this is how he really felt or if he was trying to build him up to trade him later.
      Another thought came to me – maybe he is trying to do it to show that trading Gilbert and Clifford for JV was not that big of a loss because we still have Melton who everybody actually wanted….
      We were kind of meh about Melton’s numbers, but what do we know.

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  18. The Alex Bregman of 2018-19 no longer exists because, after the pandemic shortened 2020 season, MLB announced they were changing the baseball to go back to the way it was supposed to fly. They did it and Bregman has not hit like he did in those two years. The reason is simple: Bregman was never a power hitter.
    Alex is a really good player, a top 100 player. But with a normal baseball he has had to settle for normal power instead of abnormal power manufactured by MLB in those flyball years.
    As he ages, his current power will also slowly diminish.

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    • Yeah OP – if you look at his slugging % you can easily see that demarcation.
      2018 – .532
      2019 – .592
      2020 – .451
      2021 – .422
      2022 – .454
      2023 – .441

      Never thought about it being because of the baseball – just thought they were pitching to stay away from his power zone.

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      • The year he hit 41 HRs(2019), he also led all of baseball in walks. That is because pitchers started not pitching to him. After the baseball got changed he has not hit near as many HRs or gotten walked near the amount of times, even in 2023, when he had 724 plate appearances.

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