By the end of the 2024 season, two of the pillars of this Astros’ Renaissance period might be extended or might be playing elsewhere in 2025 (or sooner if a trade occurred). Those two are the Astros’ 2B Jose Altuve and 3B Alex Bregman, who will be making $29 MM and $30.5 MM, respectively this year.
Today, we look at a “What If” for both players. What if they are not extended and need to be replaced for the 2025 season?
Jose Altuve
Yes, we know that everyone would love Jose to pull a Biggio/Bagwell and spend his whole career with the Astros. Yes, we believe that Jose would maybe give them a home town discount to help that happen. But what if they get tangled up over the length of contract? What if he will give into a smaller dollar amount per year, but only in exchange for like a 6 year contract taking him to the season he turns 40? What will the Astros do if he is not extended and plays out 2024 unsigned?
Options
Free Agent – Second Basemen
From mlbtraderumors …. 2024-25 MLB Free Agents – MLB Trade Rumors ….. Here is a list of second basemen who would be free agents after the 2024 season. Note – this list was compiled back in April. In parentheses is the age they will be or will turn in 2025 and I’ve added stats from the 2023 season
Jose Altuve (35) – .311 BA/ .393 OBP/ .915 OPS/ 17 HR/ 51 RBIs in 90 games
Brandon Drury (32) – .262/.306/.806/ 26 HR/83 RBI
Wilmer Flores (33) – $3.5MM player option (no buyout) .284/.355/.863 23HR/ 60RBI – Played more as a 1B than a 2B in 2023 – more 2B in 2022
Garrett Hampson (30) – more OF and SS than 2B – .276/.349/.729 / 3 HR/ 23 RBI in 98 games
Brandon Lowe (30) – $10.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout .231/.328/.771/ 21HR/68 RBI
Jorge Polanco (31) – $12MM club option with a $750K buyout – .255/.335/.789/ 14 HR/ 48 RBI – 80 games
Gleyber Torres (28) – .273/.347/.800/35 HR/ 68 RBIs
Tyler Wade (30) – Did not play a game at 2B in 2023 after 31 games in 2022 .255/.309/.623 / 0 HR/2 RBIs in 26 games
Looking at those choices there are surprisingly some really decent offensive choices out of the batch. You would think that they would not be interested in Flores, Hampson and Wade due to their time spent at other positions. Torres only being 28 in 2025 would probably be too pricey (if he follows a good 2023 with a good 2024). There might be real interest in Drury, Polanco and possibly Lowe. None of them are as good as Altuve, but all have some solid run-producing numbers. And if money or length of contract drives them away from Altuve….maybe.
Internal
Mauricio Dubon filled in admirably for Altuve in a good chunk of 2023, and he is better defensively, while worse offensively. If you put him in there at second base, do you have anyone who can be the magic Swiss Army knife that he has been in the tradition of Marwin Gonzalez and Aledmys Diaz?
Grae Kessinger was very good at AAA in the middle infield positions and he was probably the least worst of the infield call-ups in 2023.
Pedro Leon might be an interesting candidate for 2B as he spent significant time at second base in his season at AAA. He has the power and the speed, but man he strikes out a lot.
David Hensley in his second cameo in the majors was just plain bad. Shay Whitcomb was very similar to Pedro Leon with his 23 HRs and 66 RBIs in 87 games at AAA, but his 122 K’s are a big concern. At AA prospects as diverse as Joey Loperfido, Will Wagner and Zach Dezenzo spent at least some time at 2B.
Bottom Line
It’s not my money so I’m telling Jim Crane to “make it so” in extending Jose Altuve, because I just don’t want to see him pursuing 3000 hits somewhere else.
Alex Bregman
It would surprise no one if Bregman makes it all the way to free agency and ends up elsewhere. He’s much younger than Altuve, but it feels like the injuries he has had have aged him a bit when you watch him run. On the other hand, he is quite a run producer as his 103 runs and 98 RBIs in 2023 attest to. But if the club extends Altuve, it almost feels like a death knell to Bregman’s days in H-Town.
Options
Free Agent Third Basemen
The same rules apply for future FAs at 3B as at 2B above…
Alex Bregman (31) – .263 BA/ .363 OBP/ .804 OPS/ 25 HR/ 98 RBIs
J.D. Davis (32) – .248/.325/.738/ 18 HR/ 69 RBI
Yoan Moncada (30) – $25MM club option with a $5MM buyout .260/.305/.730 11HR/ 40 RBIs in 92 games
Jace Peterson (35) – .211/.304/.611/ 6 HR/ 37 RBIs
Jean Segura (35) – $10MM club option with a $2MM buyout – .219/.277/.556 / 3 HR/21 RBIs
Eugenio Suarez (33) – $15MM club option with a $2MM buyout – .232/.323/.714/ 22 HR/ 96 RBIs
This is an easier group to ignore at this point. Davis was a butcher at 3B. Peterson, Segura and Suarez are all much older than Bregman. Maybe Moncada, if you thought he could stay healthy.
Internal
Not really seeing anyone out of the folks who appeared in the majors in 2023. Maybe Kessinger?
Of those who did not get a major league call-up, it looks like the usual suspects between prospects Whitcomb, Wagner and Dezenzo. Maybe one of them will bust out in 2024.
Bottom Line
While the heart wants the team to extend Altuve, the brain says that Bregman may be a lot tougher to replace in the short run.
In the end – what would you do?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
14 responses to “Astros What If…..Altuve and Bregman”
What would I do?
I would do everything I could do “within reason” to extend those two.
I would not go beyond reason.
They said they want to spend their careers with the Astros. They are five years apart in age, so they cannot be expecting the same deal.
Something within reason.
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I would prefer both to be resigned,but 3rd base would be much harder to replace than 2nd. Bregman for me if we can only afford one .
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To lose either one would be devastating within the leadership in the Astro clubhouse.and to fans like me who I see as icons even more than a Biggio or Bagwell who tended to disappear come playoff time. Several of you have mentioned the ageing and slowness of Bregman running the bases, but he is a very wise base runner who is rarely thrown out, unlike Altuve, who takes chances sometimes that he shouldn’t. Bregman has a very controlled strike zone and is the ideal batter to have before our big DH comes up. If Crane wants the continuing support of the fans, he will keep them both. Heck, let Verlander go before these two
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What if by not extending one of them we can extend Tuck?
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I will boo the Dodgers every time I see their team colors after this. Major League Baseball needs to be booed as well for allowing the Dodgers to load up like this!
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39165813/japanese-star-yoshinobu-yamamoto-agrees-join-dodgers-sources-say
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We had to figure that was coming.
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I think Bregman will expect to get about 150% of whatever Matt Chapman gets. If that’s the 6 years/$150M (predicted by MLBTR), it’ll be tough to keep him. I think you have to extend him now to have any chance of keeping him here.
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I keep trying to post this – I want to link to the crawfishboxes who have linked to us two days in a row.
https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2023/12/22/24010337/astros-crawfish-boil-december-22-2023
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I think like the Braves. They let Mr. Brave walk away because they wouldn’t be held hostage to age 38-40 contracts paying 28M a year. I’m offering Jose 3/90 extension with some deferred money. If he takes it, great. If not, good luck in your future endeavors. No way you trade the face that runs the place, but if he leaves so be it. I make the deferred money whatever I have to make it for Altuve to have the same impact on the cap that he has now.
I would trade Framber today to the Dodgers and my ask is Emeritt Sheehan, Yonny Hernandez and Alex Vesia. The Dodgers are looking at Miller, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Yarbrough, and Sheehan until Buehler is ready in maybe June and Gonsolin doesn’t return until Jul/Aug. They are trying to win now. We are also trying to win and all 3 of those players likely make our opening day roster, though Hernandez might start at AAA.
Bregman is out next to the Mets for Baty, Drew Smith, and 19 year old Jacob Reimer. Don’t ask me where I get these people from, just trust me, I told you in 2008 to trade Hunter Pence for AA pitcher Max Scherzer.
Baty is 23 years old with a .290 BA and .390 OBP in the minors. Yes, 2023 was an abject failure. You roll the dice on success. If it doesn’t happen, Julks has 415 innings at 3B in the minors. Dubon is around. Hernadez (if that deal happened) can also play 3B. If you don’t trust Baty, enter into a bid for Urshela. Not my first choice but he likely isn’t going to disrupt your salary structure to much with 30M off the books from Framber and Bregman.
I immediately use the Framber/Bregman salaries to sign KT to a new contract that buys out the 2 remaining years, at something like 12/360. I believe that he is the unicorn. I don’t see many MVP’s. What I see is a durable, lean body that is built to play RF with that arm – and will play 150 games a year forever. I’m betting the future of the franchise on it.
If I get all my wishes – what a life! – I enter with a roster that doesn’t have a FA that matters for 4 years, has salary flexibility in 2 when Verlander and Abreu are rooting from the stands instead of the dugout, and enters with a lineup of Altuve, Tucker, Yordan, Abreu, Diaz, Chas, Pena, Baty and Meyers. I still got Dubon in his job. We got our backup C. We got Salazar at AAA giving depth. The rotation is JV, Javier, Brown, France and Sheehan with Urquidy swingman for strings and depth. The BP is better with Vesia and Smith than it is right now, though probably still not quite last years. Maybe the newfound payroll flexibility gets Neris back.
Now as Em liked to say – Snap back to reality – the Astros are not likely to do any of this kind of thing. They are likely to roll right into camp like they are now with maybe 1 BP arm that they find on the cheap. Bregman is playing his last year in Houston. The Astros are not going to match the Mets or Yankees in that bidding war. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Giants jump in and over pay for a guy they can put on the billboard.
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A lot to chew on their Steven. Lots of great thoughts that like you say will not happen. Hey the plus side is the Astros can go in with a team right now that can compete for a title. If things go to hell in a hand basket they can look at trading away someone that can’t extend at the trade deadline.
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There not their
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So did the Dodgers just give a 10 year deal to the equivalent of in his prime Tim Lincecum? Normally I don’t wish for anything bad to happen to any players, but I really don’t want the Dodgers to look back and see this and the Ohtani deals as successful. I want them to be mocked for giving a billion in guarantees to these two players in what would cripple other franchises futures for extended periods of time. It sure feels like the playing field was not level on this one.
I think Crane and Brown need to have an honest discussion about where they see this franchise going. We don’t have clear superstars coming up through the farm system. Paying 25% of your payroll to two players who should be on the downsides of their careers isn’t fantastic. Extending them for a length of time is equally not fantastic…except that they are fan favorites and I don’t just root for the laundry. There’s another big part to the equation though – can the Astros sign free agents and if not for how long are they in that purgatory? In a perfect world you can be like Atlanta and somehow trade or sign for a younger option and then pay him less annually than the guy you let walk. I don’t expect that to happen. I’d try to get creative with both Atluve and Bregman – offer them both ownership stakes in the franchise in exchange for signing team friendly deals that underpay them. Deferring salary that impacts our luxury tax after the players are not productive wouldn’t work out well for a team that needs draft capital to compete.
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I remember your plea for Scherzer. As far as the other deals go, I’ve promised not to make any further suggestions this off season, although in principle I’m open to big changes. Altuve would be a tough loss for me though. He’ll likely need at least 5 years.
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I do find it amazing to see the Yankees outbid now. But the Dodgers are the overwhelming cash cow in MLB right now.
I wish them well…. ok I wish them catastrophe and Tommy Johns out the wazoo.
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