,

Astros’ off-season thoughts

In a very inactive Astros’ off-season, here are some thoughts…

  • There are rumblings about how the Astros have “lost” $73 million by having to take over their Regional Sports Network with the Rockets and how this has cost them the payment they would have received for the local rights to their games. The plus side is they own it outright. The negative side is that the risk involved is all theirs. Of course, everything here is funny money, as we discussed the other day. The Astros are worth three or four times what they sold for back in 2011, but that is theoretical as the only way to truly test that is for Jim Crane and his consortium to flip the team to another buyer. But there is a thought that this “loss” is holding back Crane and Dana Brown from spending beyond the luxury tax level. Frankly, Crane has always had his GMs try and stay below that level no matter how much money was coming in each season. Something to watch as time moves on.
  • Are the Astros basically done with their off-season maneuverings? Probably not, but we are not expecting anything spectacular this off-season because the Astros’ needs list is pretty short. They have confirmed what they are doing with the outfield. They have stated they are not looking to move their expensive pieces like Alex Bregman as they are planning to make another run at a title. They have gone and gotten a backup catcher, who appears to be better than last year’s starter. They have made a few – around the edges – pickups for the bullpen. Dana Brown may wait until some folks have been sitting at home a while before making some signing right before Spring Training or a small trade to further bolster the bullpen.
  • Just remember that Jim Crane has always been supportive of in-season moves at the trade deadline and he may be holding back on money spent until they really see what the needs are farther down the line.
  • There was some chatter about Dana Brown’s effusive praise for OF Jacob Melton, who has combined quite a bit of power and speed with a very pedestrian batting average to this point in his minor league career. Is Brown that much in love with Melton? Is he trying to be cagey and make the other teams think Melton is a target of many of the other clubs and that it will take something big to get him to include him in a trade? Is he talking too much or is this being done with a future purpose? It is very evident that the way Brown does his business is much more public than his predecessors. But does it really give anything away?
  • One of the surprising things about the offseason was the relative lack of Astros’ roster turnover around the Rule 5 draft. If my notes are correct, the Astros only released Enoli Paredes and added Kenedy Corona in setting the 40-man roster prior to the Rule 5. It seemed like they would need to release a few more marginal folks to make room for those who might get grabbed in the Rule 5 draft, but it was not necessary as the Astros lost no one in the MLB portion of the draft. The roster sits at exactly 40 right now, so any addition to the 40-man roster between now and the regular season will require an equivalent move to create a space for the new player. But for right now, they are all safe.

So, what are your thoughts today?

←
→

13 responses to “Astros’ off-season thoughts”

  1. Hello, Chipalatta crew. My thoughts are that we’re over-extended, under-funded, and out-gunned. It’s a new day, and we are an old team; it’s a high energy/high intensity game for hungry young men out to prove themselves, and we have talented but tired old former superstars, experienced but exhibiting low energy, almost zero intensity, and nothing left to prove.

    Like

    Reply

  2. I’ve been reading some stuff across the way about that 73 million, about Crane and partners preparing to sell, about trades and about most everything else too. Everyone seems to be a journalist these days, looking to score a take that turns into reality. As I said to 1oldpro this morning, I’m guilty of same, but I’m only getting a dozen or so hits from you guys.

    Mr. Bill, we consistently rank in the top 5 to 10 payrolls in MLB. I’m good with a certain level of fiscal responsibility. We’re never going to keep up with LA and NY, but look at the mess that the Padres have become. They spent and failed miserably. At the same time, I’ve been willing to make some big trades in order to get younger and fill in a couple of big upcoming holes (especially third base) even if it means we’ve got to fight for a last wild card position in 2024. Historically though, that’s not the way Jim Crane does business. We get best years out of free agents and then let them go. It’s worked.

    We’ve still got superstars. I don’t think they are tired. One could be too old though. I worry about Verlander a little bit. But we’re getting way younger behind the plate. I suspect our outfield is going to get a jolt of youth at some point this season. Most of our pitchers are not codgers. And as we dragged Maldi all along the way, still we missed the penultimate series by a single win.

    If I have a complaint of Dana Brown, I think he talks too much at times. He’s going to have a heck of a time trying to keep his promise to keep Tucker. He was high on Loperfido a few months ago. Melton does not need the burden of a Brown endorsement as he gets his first real dose of AA baseball.

    I’ve speculated here more than anyone about potential Astro trades. I’m going to take my advice to Dana Brown and go quiet on that front. I’m already looking to see if Jeremy Pena has an elevated level of play left to grow into. I’m looking for a solid season from Hunter Brown. I’m concerned about our bullpen. Is Yainer going to hit lefties? There is so much to be intrigued about.

    Like

    Reply

    • Rookie of the Year? The 5.1/8.7 BB/K guy in AAA? Okay, maybe he’s been “working on things”.

      If he had a 1.93 ERA in nine home starts for the Space Cowboys, the road ERA had to be pretty rough, because his overall AAA ERA was 4.64.

      Arrighetti might be our next big hope because it does not seem we’ve got another upper level starter to hang our hats on, but he’s really had a rather unremarkable minor league career. What am I missing here?

      Like

      Reply

  5. My thoughts?
    – Crane’s payroll is at $222 million(6th in MLB) and sits just above the $237 million(6th in MLB) luxury tax line. Rangers are 7th in both.
    The man spends money.
    – I like the way the Braves bring their players up and install them in the majors. The difference between them and Houston is that we win more and always draft last.
    – I like Brown bragging on our top prospects. I wish we had a lot more of them.
    – The Mets will pay over $26 million of Verlander’s $43 million salary in 2024.
    – Alex Bregman is 29.7 years old. Prime age of baseball players.

    Like

    Reply

  6. Regarding the spending issue: Jim Crane is by no means cheap – at least by traditional standards. The problem is that while he is suddenly competing against a whole school of sharks-on-steroids. Unlike other owners, Crane actually has to justify high-dollar player investments the old fashion way – on return potential – instead of just throwing money around like confetti because he can.

    Like

    Reply

  7. One reason that we have the spending dilemma that we are currently in is the “back loaded contracts” Between our top 3 Altuve, Bregman, and JV we have 103MM but in reality 66MM due to the Mets picking up 25MM of JV’s contract. I’ve always though that one should balance between the balanced contract and the back loaded one but it’s not my money so it’s just an opinion. I’m not so against what we have. Altuve and Bregman have been pretty much worth that 30MM. The issue becomes the price and for how long to get them to stay. I would think (hope) that Altuve will give us a home town discount to remain an Astro for life. The ball is pretty much in his park. Bregman, not so much as he is 30 looking for the LT deal (at least 7 years) and probably 200MM+. I’d avoid that one like the plague. It will be interesting to see what transpires. And then there’s the Framber situation. Sign an extension, free agent, or trade. Depends on what happens in 2024. Same with Tucker. He’ll be 29 when his contract is up so another mystery to solve. Anybody got a crystal ball that can tell us what the future holds?

    Like

    Reply

  9. The Astros will offer Altuve, Bregman and Tucker extensions. Maybe they will work deals out and maybe they won’t.
    If they can’t work deals the Astros will give each one a QO and continue negotiations until each player has a deal with some team.
    Then comes the time when the Astros fill the holes on their roster with new players.
    Every year salaries go up, QO’s go up and the Luxury Tax Line goes up and the value of the dollar goes down.
    The next CBA will involve the same crap it always does and the wealthier teams will give more money to the poorer teams, so that the poorer teams will play the fake competition who can’t compete, but whose owners still rake in the money.
    In the meantime, the Mets, Dodgers and Yankees rake in the billions and spend the millions and dominate their divisions and, hopefully get upset by teams who get no favors but still manage to gel at the right time.

    Like

    Reply

Leave a comment