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Astros’ 2024: How’s that outfield looking?

Another item that came rolling down the track during Dan P’s week away was the statement Dana Brown made about the likely makeup of the Astros’ outfield in 2024. He really did not need to cover Kyle Tucker being the starter in RF and he did not do it. But of interest was that with Michael Brantley gone in free agency (not likely to re-sign) and hopefully having more availability from Yordan Alvarez than his 114 games in 2023 (40 of those in LF), what does Mr. Brown see for the CF and LF spots.

Straight out, he said that Jake Meyers (.227 BA/ .296 OBP/ .678 OPS/ 10 HRs / 33 RBIs) would be the starting CF in most games due to his fielding prowess and hitting potential. Chas McCormick (.273 BA/ .353 OBP/ .842 OPS/ 22 HRs/ 70 RBIs) would play LF when Yordan Alvarez was at DH, which is normally 65-70% of the time. When he is not in LF, he will be taking over from Meyers in CF.

If we believe they are going to just hand CF to Meyers, then everything is set…..But is it really?

In 2023, Mauricio Dubon played 38 games in the OF, mostly as a centerfielder. This was a significant number, considering he was covering 2B in 79 games with Jose Altuve missing so much time. If Meyers, falters (more than he did in 2023), it would seem that Dubon would be the prime choice to take his spot. However, if Dubon is needed to sub for an extended time at 2B or SS, this plan would fail.

So what else is out there?

Corey Julks put up decent numbers with an unsustainable BAbip until suddenly, this caught up with him and he went into a death spiral slump that ended with a demotion back to the minors.

Two of the higher outfield prospects in the system, Ryan Clifford and Drew Gilbert headed to New York at the trade deadline for the return of Justin Verlander. But the Astros still have a lot of outfield depth in their system.

Cuban prospect Pedro Leon continued to show power (21 HRs/ 72 RBIs), speed (21 SBs) and the ability to miss the baseball (160 Ks in 128 games) while splitting time between the IF and the OF.

Joey Loperfido looked great at AA Corpus (.296 BA/.392 OBP/.940 OPS) in 84 games before coming down to earth in 32 games at AAA Sugar Land (.235/.333/.737).

Justin Dirden exploded at AA in 2022, but had a similar fall to earth in 2023 at AAA (.231 BA/ .314 OBP/ .710 OPS).

Other top OF prospects, such as Jacob Melton (#1), Luis Baez (#2), Colin Barber (#8), Zach Cole (#10) and Kenedy Corona (#11) have not appeared above AA yet, so it is not likely that any of them will make the team out of Spring Training, but certainly if any of them rip things up at AAA, they could force the big team to make a decision.

What feels right here is that the team will start with that foursome of Alvarez, McCormick, Meyers and Tucker with Dubon sliding in here and there as their OF coverage. But there should be no shock that if Meyers falters the team picks someone who is tearing it up in the minors to take his place no matter what Dana Brown is saying during the off-season. Brown may have been saying what he believed or saying what he needs to keep Meyers value propped up for a future trade.

 

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43 responses to “Astros’ 2024: How’s that outfield looking?”

  1. I predict Dirden will come back and put pressure on the team to get to the majors.
    Having Julks and Dirden ready will be a good cushion if Meyers falters. Dirden is that left handed hitting outfielder.
    2024 is the year we see who are the future outfielders for Houston and, hopefully we see who among Loperfido, Corona, Barber, Dirden, Leon, Melton and Cole are for real for 2025 and beyond.

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  2. When Alvarez, McCormick and Tucker are in the outfield together, it might be the best offensive outfield in the game.

    As Brown noted, Chas will be a regular this year. To me that means 140 plus games. But based on what he has also said, Jake will be out in center regularly, at least initially. That will be left to Espada, Chas, Jake and maybe Frenchy to figure out. And then by summer, who knows?

    As Steven noted yesterday, if Jake hits .250 and can get on base in the 9th slot, we might get a 3 plus WAR with his range in center. I don’t think he’s going to hit though. But he will produce more than last year’s 9th hitter. He’ll get a good look while Brown hopes one of the guys in Sugar Land demands a job. I’m in on Loperfido. I like that he’s viable at first too. He plays all three outfield positions. I like that he’s very comfortable on the bases. Loperfido has stolen 59 bases over the past two years. He’s a savvy ball player. I sure hope Jake adds 20 steals to his resume in 2024. 309 at bats in 2023 with just 5 steals? He’s wasting his speed.

    Alex Verdugo put up a 2.6 WAR in 2023. A 100 OPS+. The Yankees will pay him 9 million plus for that. Whatever we get from Jake will be a bargain in comparison.

    One more note. I hope that when Yordan is out in left, we see Altuve at DH fairly regularly. That gives Dubon work at his best position and improves our infield defense.

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  4. I feel that Myers best value for the Astros is his trade for a relief pitcher. The bar he has set is low enough that a Loperfido or Leon etc just might surpass it and then Melton should be ready in 25.

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    • Hi Larry, I’m hopeful one of those AAA guys will force the issue before the All Star break. And it sure would be nice to have Melton conquer AA and AAA in 2024. Lot’s to hope for.

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  6. By the way, we are going to find out who the Astros are very quickly in the 2024 season!
    We start out at home with 4 games against the Yankees.
    We follow that with 3 home games against the Blue Jays.
    We go on the road for 4 games against the Rangers.
    We quickly go to KC for 3 road games.
    We come home for 3 more games against the Rangers.
    AND 3 home games against the Braves.
    The last part of April looks easier with 4 days off in the last 2 weeks with the Nats, Cubs, Rockies and Guardians.
    We should know a LOT about the Astros by the end of April.

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  9. How about that? The trade only goes through if the Dodgers can sign him to an extension.
    Thank goodness the Dodgers never have injuries to their pitching staff. Glasnow fits there perfectly.

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    • Yes, the Dodgers have a penchant for collecting excellent pitching that can’t make it into October! Glasnow has a 7.1 career WAR over 8 years of very limited good health.

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  10. Centerfielder Manuel Margot, the “throw in” to the Glasnow deal is set to make 10 million this year. He’s got a career 91 OPS+. Our guy Jake, a better defender has an 87 OPS+. As much some of us take Jake for granted (I’m guilty) he’s got real value.

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    • IDK Dave, I would rather have a plus player that I have to pay than a mediocre player that I don’t. In terms of comparing him to Margot, that just feels like someone made the mistake of giving a mediocre player money.

      I would rather compare that to say, Pena. Pena is a fairly middling, middle of the road SS. Good defender, not great, but good. Good power, when he finds it. Hits .250. Someone one day is going to make the mistake of giving that mediocre player money. Maybe it will be us.

      I will say I think Jake has some value, because he can be mediocre (right now I would say he is below average, but he has the ability to get to average). As long as he is doing that for minimum salary it frees up money for the good players. Like most mediocre players he will price himself out of a job at some point. But he has to get to mediocre first, hitting .227 is not gonna do it.

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      • Steven, best of the Christmas season to you! First things first. I agree completely with your first paragraph.

        I’m just looking at what appears to be a frozen payroll at this point. So I’m going to live with Jake for the time being. Maybe someone will lose a CF early in the season and be willing to part with something significant for a guy like Jake. I’d then take my chances with our other resources. As I have said, I hope Jake hits your .250. But even if he does not, and I don’t think he will, we should get more from the 9th slot than Maldy gave us. So it’s not a terrible situation to be in, especially with a far more robust hitter in Diaz replacing Maldy behind the plate.

        2024 is probably my judgement year for Pena. If he does not hit more and get more selective, then I don’t see much offensive growth further ahead. That does not mean he won’t remain an everyday shortstop for someone, maybe even the Astros, at least until our system develops what’s going to have to be a brand new infield before long. Scary thought.

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      • Given our history of comments it would probably shock you to hear I’m not too concerned about Jake’s numbers. Myles Straw was apparently worth 1.1 WAR last year slashing .238/.301/.297. I looked at all the CF in the league when we were losing George Springer and decided he was worth $20M+ annually because the field was crowded with such mediocrity. What it really comes down to is whether a guy can save you runs on defense and not hurt you so much on offense. The way Chas has improved since coming up gives me hope that Jake can similarly get better. I don’t expect output anywhere the same, but with Jake I’ve seen a lot of at bats where he would get ahead in the count and the pitcher was able to work it back the other direction and then get an easy out when it got to 2 strikes. When we’re talking about a guy hitting .225 v .250 that’s the difference of getting one more hit every 40AB. All Jake has to do to get there is not miss a few more of those pitches letting the pitcher get back in control. Also remember a lot of people were clamoring for Bryan Reynolds to be acquired, but he got a contract ranging from $15M to $20M annually that Pittsburgh is now trying to move.

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      • I agree with you Devin.

        I also feel Jake has a good idea at the plate between a ball and a strike. And that is the first ingredient to improvement. Comparing him to Chas is excellent, because that is exactly why Chas has seen such improvement – even when it looked like the bat to ball wasn’t great we knew he could tell a ball from a strike. I haven’t given up on Jake becoming a serviceable CFer. This is probably the best time to give Jake one last shot at it if you are Brown – if he is hitting .210 at the end of the month he has Dubon and the idea of sticking Chas in CF full time as fall backs. The first injury to an OFer though and that depth is going to feel bad when Julks is in LF everyday again.

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  11. I’m bullish on most of our OF prospects. They all have some indicator you can point too – age for their level, K/BB ratios, K percentages, bat to ball, something, that makes you concerned about all of them. If I were the Astros I would not be static on the OF with that group of minor leaguers.

    I do like Loperfido. I think this team made a mistake when they didn’t use Leon as a trade piece somewhere for more depth – they could have sold the promise of talent high, now they are stuck with a guy they are just going to have to expose in the next rule V that because of the promise of tools will probably get a look by someone like the Pirates or Royals.

    The Astros could talk to the Pirates about Leon and Julks for Moreta. With their recent injury Julks could slide into LF immediately, Leon gives them more depth in the OF, and Moreta gives us Neris-lite as a replacement. Moreta has problems with the strike zone, but when he is in there hitters have problems with him. I’m not quite sure that would be enough but the Astros could add someone like Dubin that could free up a spot on the 40 man and ask for someone like Omar Alvarez that is 19 and years away from the 40 man. Again, Alvarez might be a big ask, but I am sure there is some 19/20 year old in their system that is fairly loaded that could complete the deal.

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  12. Some thoughts about the Astros for 2024:
    – The Astros added Kenedy Corona to their 40-man roster for a reason and they know the reason.
    – I don’t think the Astros will have the same starting outfield at the end of the season as they had at the beginning
    – The Astros will make a trade of someone between now and the deadline that will allow them to duck under the luxury tax level. I’m not saying it will be an outfielder, but that is a possibility. I think it will be an outfielder or a pitcher and that will happen whether they are a contender or not a contender. All three of the major trackers of MLB payrolls have the Astros slightly above the first luxury tax penalty level.
    – The Astros need to have more LH batters available this year. They have some in the minors who are in the upper half of their Top 30 prospect list. One or two of them need to bust out this season to become part of the 2025 Astros plans, or even the late 2024 plans.

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  13. As far as that Dodgers/Rays trade, most Dodgers fans are going to be happy but I am really surprised. One could argue Deluca is a better ballplayer than Margot, and Pepiot has the upside that if he gets to potential is just as good as Glasnow, and the Dodgers are adding 35-40M when all is said and done on just this years cap number to get this done.

    To me, if I was the Rays, I would be ecstatic. Glasnow is definitely made of his namesake glass. Deluca is a dude with a long track record of getting on base, if he was in our system we would probably be thinking he is the 2024 everyday left fielder. And when I look at lines like his 2023 numbers – where he had 55 strikeouts in 73 games with a .390 OBP between two stops – with great power through his minor league career – this is a win for Tampa. It’s a win for us too, because nothing would make most of us happier than to watch the Dodgers try and spend to win only to watch Margot his .260 with a .310 OBP, Glasnow head to the IL, and Ohtani tack on 46M to your cap to just hit. And the Dodgers still have rotation issues for 2024 despite what they have spent so far.

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      • Dave, I was thinking about that this morning in regards to the arbitration process. Brown may have a tough winter ahead of him. Last year the Astros were probably a little too cutthroat in dealing with Tucker. How are they going to proceed with him and Framber this year. Are they going to roll out tape of the HRs that Tucker didn’t rob during those losses and meltdowns by Framber? I’m sure Crane has someone who told him just how much money they missed out on by not winning one home game in the ALCS. Meanwhile, we have media members begging the Astros to give out Ohtani deals.

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  16. Good early morning. It’s chilly and rainy here in the tropics, but I somehow I decided it was a good idea to get on a boat to neighboring St. Kitts and the dentist first thing today. I should have stayed in bed.

    Devin, I don’t think Brown has a tough winter ahead of him. He’s got a pretty good team if the season were to start tomorrow. That said, we don’t know the guy very well yet. As far as Framber goes, I’m on record as to being open to a trade for him. The problem is covering his 200 innings with capable replacements. But we sure could get some quality young talent in return.

    I’ll be impressed if Brown holds on to Tucker after 2024, but I think that’s a long shot. At his age, he’s getting ten years easy. At the same time, the one thing our minor system seems to have is outfield talent.

    I’m really interested to see how the roster reads on opening day and look forward to welcoming some new young talent along the way in 2024. Here’s a thought. What if Brown shocked everyone and traded Tucker before Spring Training?

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  18. As we approach the ‘24 season the speculation intensifies. Will we trade Tucker, Valdez or both? I guess the answer depends on several factors such as the possibility of signing a LT contract, how much, potential return, and where the club will be then. Lots of questions to be answered. I. Think it’s been a proven fact that money doesn’t naturally get you a Championship but the Dodgers/Yankees will try to prove that scenario wrong. Only makes me despise them more. I want our team to be competitive and always in the running for that WS championship. It would be disappointing to see us regress back to those seasons of last place finishes and hundred loss seasons.

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  19. That was a pretty good win by our young upstart Texans yesterday, beating those Tennessee imposters in Oilers uniforms. I have to admit, I was offended. They were our Houston Oilers after all, whether or not Bud Adams snuck out of town and sold everything, including the rights to the Oilers likenesses. The Texans have improved more this year than anyone could have expected. They are a proud football team again. Right now, DeMeco Ryans is Coach of the Year.

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    • That was a very eerie experience watching that game as those Oiler uniforms tug at your heart while you realize it is a team sticking it in our faces.
      The Texan’s players probably do not care – but it was bad for the fans.
      I’m glad they shoved it down their throats yesterday.

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  20. The Astros are close to having their team set for April so the only way to any generate buzz on the team is to talk about imaginary trades of Valdez or Tucker or Bregman. It is safe to say the Astros are definitely in Bob Nightengale’s head and in other’s also.

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    • His comments sound very 1980ish. He hits homeruns. He stole bases. He has a chance.

      This guy has managed a .248 career batting average at A/A+ while being older than the guys around him. His K/BB ratio would be suitable, but it won’t be sustainable as he climbs, and any worsening of that ratio is bad news.

      Of course, like all prospects, you let it play out. See what happens, he may walk into camp this year with 13 pounds more muscle, get the bat head where he wants it a millisecond faster, and all of a sudden show some bat to ball that he hasn’t yet. It has happened before.

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  23. To answer the main question of “how does that outfield look?”, we won’t know until we give that outfield a chance to play 150 games apiece together.
    That is the way it is meant to be done. You give them a chance to show what they can do together and you put your best players on the field every day and they expect to kick the other team’s ass every day.
    You look at the starting outfield of McCormick, Meyers and Tucker and they are young, fast, terrific defenders. They all have some power and they all can steal bases.
    Put them out there and let them play. Back them up with a good defender with speed as a backup who can give them a day off when they need it. And don’t give them a day off when they don’t need it!

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    • Just throwing out numbers, if Yordan plays 60 in left, that gives Chas roughly 90 in left and 50 or so in center. 30 more in center for Dubon. I’d rather Frenchy not be the designated Verlander CF. Was that a Dusty thing? Then 80 for Jake and/or whomever might take the job from him. Tucker 150 in right. That leaves a few games for a fifth outfielder to get a start every now and then. Of course injuries and emerging talent might change things. How far off am I?

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      • When you have the best DH in baseball and you don’t want him to get hurt, I don’t know why you would put him in the outfield.
        I also don’t have a clue why they would put Dubon out there. He is your main utility player and he needs to be that guy.
        If your GM says Meyers is the center fielder, then Meyers is the center fielder.
        I would hope that the time of the starting pitchers making out the lineup card would be over, now that the team in Arlington beat you in your own house and then won the WS and proved that last years Astros fooling around didn’t work.
        I’m ready to go back to the idea of playing your best players in their best position every day.

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  24. 1OP, I’m fully with you. But I suspect Yordan will spend a fair amount of time in left. Brown said as much. And I honestly don’t know whose idea it was to put Dubon in CF with JV on the mound. So there remain variables.

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  25. The consistency in which Dubon/Maldonado was up the middle for Verlander has to lead you to believe that was particularly for him, and it’s hard to imagine that wasn’t happening without him saying it. Espada has been around Baker and Verlander for years, I assume that Chas will not be in CF when Verlander pitches. It’s not like we brought in an outsider. How much actually changes remains to be seen. By the time Verlander got back to Houston Jake had probably mostly already hit himself out of a job, so it’s possible that Verlander will get some Jake given that he is defensively at least as good as Dubon, maybe better.

    Personally I don’t know Verlander’s deal with Chas. I get that the numbers tell us he doesn’t quite have the range of the other two, but he has vastly improved that number. He makes some phenomenal plays out there, including a game clinching one in the WS that is still a highlight to Astros fans. He has already lost his battery mate, take the offensive options Justin. Chas and Yainer are major upgrades to the chances the team scores 5 runs for you instead of 2 or 3. You are trying to chase 300 man, give yourself the cushion!

    I think once Verlander gets used to Yainer, he will ask himself what he was thinking in 2023.

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    • Steven, your last sentence made me smile. Yesterday I was discussing both Diaz and Caratini with my brother. We both agreed that once the pitching staff has had a chance to work consistently with either guy they’ll all forget about Maldonado.

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