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Framber, Bregman, Pressly and one other trade chip

This will be Dana Brown’s first real off-season to work whatever magic is within his power. While the fans would like to see him make a big splash – his hands may be at least partially tied at this point.

First let’s look at the payroll situation for 2024.

Houston Astros 2024 Salaries & Payroll Table | Spotrac

With a current payroll including player benefits and other sundries they have a current commitment of about $192 MM with a tax threshold of $237 MM, so hey they have like $45 MM to spend, no problem. Wait, let’s look at this closer. Oh, the current commitment for the 10 players under contract does not include the money that will be eventually given to the seven players up for arbitration (estimated a little below the $40 MM mark) and the expected nine players getting the league minimum of $720K apiece. You add it all together and the team is near $239 MM and will have triggered the luxury tax threshold.

Now this is a line that the team has run up to, but not over during Jim Crane’s tenure. It is not a very heavy tax (to a billionaire) as only a percentage of the money above the line is taxed depending on how far above and also how many years in a row the line is crossed.

Might Jim Crane allow them to go over the line this season knowing that he may have some contract relief after the 2024 season with the potential losses of Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve? Going over the line used to cost teams the draft picks that they would receive for losing a free agent that they had offered a qualifying offer. But that rule has gone away.

They could get some relief if they sign an extension with any of the players up for arbitration with a more back loaded contract (think Kyle Tucker). But that would likely not save them much in 2024.

The other choice would be to trade player(s) with already set in stone contracts. While many fans would like that to be the disappointing Jose Abreu, he is not likely to go unless the team attached a big chunk of cash or a prime-time prospect (which they really don’t have) to the deal.

I’m thinking more along these lines….

Alex Bregman

Positives for trading him

  • Save $30.5 MM for the 2024 season, before he becomes a free agent.
  • Trade him while he still has value.
  • He runs like an old 30-year-old.
  • He peaked in 2018 and 2019.
  • He still has stats (103 runs and 98 RBIs) that would attract traders.

Negatives against trading him

  • They really do not have a clear substitute in their minors for him.
  • He is a top notch fielder.
  • Even when his hitting wobbles – he still gets on base.
  • He walks more often than he strikes out.
  • He is a leader on and off the field for the team.
  • Part of the trade might well need to include a younger 3B coming back, which would lower what else they might get for him, prospect-wise.

Chances of getting traded – I’d say this may depend on whether there is any movement on an extension – but if not – maybe 20% and even that is more likely at the trade deadline if the team is struggling than in the pre-season.

Framber Valdez

Positives for trading him

  • He was struggling badly with the new pitch clock rules – not able to do his deep meditation when in trouble.
  • The pitch clock may get shortened even more.
  • His home run rate almost doubled in 2023 over 2022.
  • His numbers the second half of the season and in the playoffs were not very good.
  • He may be tough to extend as he and the team would be pointing at different sets of stats while attempting to come up with a deal.
  • He would have very good value as the team trading for him would have control over him for the next two seasons.

Negatives against trading him

  • He is a workhorse with right near 200 innings the last two seasons.
  • In 2022, he was strong in the playoffs and was a critical cog in them winning the World Series.
  • He has been one of the few lefties to find success with the team over this Renaissance period and it must be a good thing to change up what a team is looking at when you place him between Justin Verlander and Cristian Javier.
  • When he has been very good (2021, 2022 and half of 2023) he has been of near Cy Young quality.
  • He is a veritable bargain for a top 1 or 2 in the rotation – expected to get around $12 MM in arbitration this season.

Chances of getting traded – Probably less than Bregman – maybe in the 10-15% range. Top line pitching is expensive and tough to come by. They really need to see if they can get him in the right state of mind and see if he will have a better late season after not playing in the WBC.

Ryan Pressly

Positives for trading

  • He is making a fair chunk ($14 MM) for a reliever not named Rafael Montero.
  • He can choose to leave after 2024 – it is a mutual option for him to come back in 2025 at $14 MM.
  • He was statistically down in 2023, less saves, higher ERA, higher WHIP, more hits and home runs allowed and less Ks.
  • He has an heir in waiting in Bryan Abreu, who has better stuff than Pressly.
  • Pressly will turn 35 in a couple weeks.
  • He could bring a good return for a team looking for a pitcher to lead the bullpen.

Negatives against trading him

  • The bullpen is the biggest question mark headed into the offseason with a lot of innings gone between Hector Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek.
  • His numbers were worse in 2023, but a lot of the runs were isolated to a few bad games.
  • He continued to be nails in the playoffs. He has not given up an earned run in his last 18 appearances, reaching back into the 2021 playoff run.  This is for a team that lost so many playoff series over the years due to not having a closer who could shut down the spigot.
  • He has been the leader of the bullpen and it may be more critical this season as it looks like he will be surrounded by a younger cast.

Chances of getting traded – Feels like 10% or less.

Jose Altuve  – Before you send the tar and feathers after me – I would not want this to happen.

Positives for trading him

  • It would save the team $29MM in 2024.
  • He can walk away for nothing after this coming season.
  • He turns 34 years old in May.
  • He had two separate injuries in 2024 that limited him to 90 games played.
  • He still has a lot of perceived value in a trade scenario.

Negatives against trading him

  • He is an icon and the face of the franchise.
  • Even with missing a lot of time, as our blog buddy daveb pointed out in the comments after the last post, he was extremely effective in the 90 games he played.
  • He has the type of power-speed combo that you rarely see leading off and/or at second base.
  • He has had some of the most iconic moments in playoff history of the team – literally winning critical games and series with his bat.
  • He is Jose frigging Altuve and should stay here and go into the Hall of Fame as an Astro only.

Chances of getting traded – Maybe 1%. Just cannot see it.

So, where do you stand on these potential trades?

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33 responses to “Framber, Bregman, Pressly and one other trade chip”

  1. Dan, I agree with all but one of your thoughts. If we had a Bregman replacement on standby, Alex might be gone by now. But we don’t, so that’s out.

    The other guys are out too.

    It’s all about Framber. By the way, what happened to him against the Braves in 2021? It’s a recurring issue. But Framber has real value. I would presume Dana Brown is considering all kinds of things, including a trade of Framber Valdez. That’s his job.

    We might get the back up catcher and a good solid young arm for the pen under team control. We might get a lefty bat for the outfield with more upside than Julks and Meyers, giving Loperfido more time to develop. I sure look forward to the day he’s able to play all three outfield spots and also take 40 or so starts at first base from Abreu. But I digress. I worry the Rangers and other teams in the second half finally figured Framber out. They did not swing at stuff they used to. That made Framber uncomfortable. He hates working with guys on base more than ever. And then he threw less ground balls and more fly balls. Maybe it was Mandy’s fault! Probably not though. Framber’s 13 or so million in arbitration would be close to what Seth Lugo will likely cost annually for three years. I’ve already said this, but he’s my new Charlie Morton.

    I know my plans are a long shot, but one can dream, right?

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  2. When I mentioned possibly trading Framber in the previous discussion, it was after careful consideration of all the arguments you mention in this one.
    Pitching is at a premium league wide. There are a bunch of teams who would give twice the value in a trade for two years of a TOR pitcher making $13 million in his second to last arbitration year, especially since he has virtually no injury history vs giving up players for one year for a 3B making $30 million. With the state of baseball today, two-thirds of the teams won’t pay $30 a year for anyone.
    If you trade Pressly, Abreu might replace him. But who do we have to replace Abreu’s set-up spot that is near as good as he is?
    I can’t imagine the fan outrage if Altuve is traded. Altuve’s jersey is the only Astros jersey I have ever owned and I have been a fan for 62 years. And again who is going to give up a ton to pay him $30 million for one year.
    Finally, the Astros would be left with a rotation of Verlander, Javier, Brown, France and Urquidy. But they would also be waiting for LMJ and Garcia to return before the end of the year. Plus, they have 3 pitchers Arrighetti, Gordon and Kouba, who are listed in their Top 10 prospects who are in AAA and their ETA to make it to the majors is listed by the club as 2024. Not to mention Whitley, which I did anyway.
    Framber has been my guy for years. But going over the luxury tax line is out of the question for me because of the penalties it incurs in the area of drafting and placements in signing free agents later on. Losing an extra high round draft pick by not playing Diaz at catcher full-time last year really pissed me off.

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  3. I often remember the post game interview of the star of the game late last season. The star was Jeremy Pena. When asked about another guy on the team who had a very good game that night, Yainer Diaz, Pena described Diaz as “amazing”.

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  4. Kind of feel like we’re in a pickle for next year. The question to be asked is there a trade out there that doesn’t deplete our minors anymore than it already has been or do we wan to go over the tax threshold for a better shot at a WS title next season. Unless there’s a bargain out there I don’t see Dana Brown or Crane doing that.
    1st scenario 2024 – We’re in the hunt or will be in the playoffs.
    * If we can’t get a team friendly deal with Bregman then it’s get what you can in a trade (as long as it’s not to a contender) I’d think we could get a decent return.
    * Depends on what kind of year Framber is having. If a good year let’s wait one more year and see what 2025 holds.
    * Pretty much the same with Pressley. Probably keep him in this scenario if he’s pitching well. If not then it’s another story.
    * Altuve’s name should not even be on the list but I understand why it is.
    2nd scenario 2024 – We’re out of it (I surely hope not and don’t expect it).
    Bregman, Pressley, and Framber are all on the trading block. Time to rebuild the core.
    Save some bucks and try to sign Tucker.
    2025 – Don’t want to get ahead of ourselves at this point.

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  5. Interesting stuff guys – it feels like this is a very critical point if the team is going to sustain their success or take a couple of steps back.

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  6. I keep reading stuff about Dylan Cease being the must have guy for the Astros. But why? Do we look to his 2022 season and ignore everything else? And why even entertain trading Chas or any of the few remaining attractive guys near the top of the minor league system? For two years of club control? I’m glad there has been no such indication from the Astros, at least at this point.

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    • The guy was 7-9 with a 4.58 ERA last year. Any conversation with the White Sox should start with quoting those stats. He is a slight upgrade over Hunter Brown or Jose Urquidy, sure, but at 6 times the price tag. The fools writing these articles are not actual reporters, they are kids with a computer and an idea they are repeating. I’ll panic when someone with insider knowledge leaks it like Rosenthal.

      Now, there is upside on Cease. People think he is some long in the tooth veteran. He finished second in the Cy race at 25. He is about to turn 27. He is in his prime years, and one could definitely argue pitching for the White Sox last year was a tough gig – in a clubhouse that was widely reported as an out of control animal house. And he is at an age where a lot of guys with 98 MPH fastballs that don’t always end up where they want them start to figure it out. If we were able to get the guy without giving up Hunter Brown, Chas McCormick, or Jose Urquidy I am game. It’s not my money.

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  7. I am not sure trading any of those guys can make you a better team the day after. So I don’t think any of them will happen. The Astros under Crane have held back the idea of trading stars simply because they are on the cusp of free agency; they have been more than willing to try and win right this second than trade Correa, Springer, Cole, or Verlander, and they lost them all. They haven’t even traded second tier guys like Morton. I don’t see that pattern breaking for Pressly, Altuve, or Bregman. Crane has been alot of things including consistent.

    Valdez is interesting, because that deal could possibly make you better. He has had some public meltdowns in big moments this year though and isn’t exactly 26. The price could probably be ran up on a desperate franchise like the Yankees, who just need to find 4 warm bodies that can stay upright to put behind Cole and don’t care what they cost, but a lot of teams might balk if you come looking for the level of prospects it would take.

    A lot of the roster is still intact from 2022. They were not great in 2023. But they still won 90 and were within 1 win of a World Series appearance. I wouldn’t change a lot. I wouldn’t trade anyone of consequence. If I can make a small deal that moves Meyers or Dirden for catching depth in the organization, I am probably taking it.

    There is no doubt Brown is looking for a left handed bat that he can peel off on the cheap, particularly if it’s an outfielder. My take – meh. We won without it last year. No doubt, lefties hit right handed pitching, even our lefties that punish lefties still hit righties better. But our lineup as currently constructed takes away the advantage of lefthanded pitching because our lefties hit lefties. You go into a 3 game set and you eliminate those situations where a manager could turn to his lights out lefty twice it tends to even out. In a perfect world would we want to see a 400 at bat Brantley season, sure. Would we, I don’t know. I don’t want a lefty for lefty sakes, they guy has got to be a fit.

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    • Assuming good health, we’ve already got a 90 plus win team in 2024. We can get better though, and be better positioned for 2025 and beyond. Maybe Brown simply tweaks, but I think he does more.

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  8. And I’ll throw out a fantasy baseball trade I would consider –

    The St. Louis Cardinals have 2 MVP candidates on their corners. They are in a win now mode, they are not 26. Right now their pitching and their offense are not lined up.

    The Astros have need for not only a lefty bat in the outfield – but one they can pencil in the number 2 spot in the batting order.

    My proposed deal – The Houston Astros send Framber Valdez and Jake Meyers to the St. Louis Cardinals for Brendan Donovan and Tres Barrera. Valdez gives St. Louis the TOR guy they are looking for, Meyers gives them CF depth, the deal frees up 13M off our books this year for a guy in Donovan that isn’t even arbitration eligible until 2025 and a FA until 2028, and Donovan is the type of player that the Astros fan base would fall in love with. He is a lefty bat that doesn’t strike out, has growing power, can play all over the OF and came up as a second baseman. Barrera looks like the throw in; the 29 year old has never stuck anywhere but has logged almost 4000 innings behind the plate in the minors – is from Eagle Pass, TX, and played his college ball at UT. Local kids always bring in a few tickets, and his experience can help – and he is zero threat to take any PT from Diaz.

    While I find it extremely unlikely a deal like this happens – it’s some fat to chew on in these terrible days between the WS and first pitch.

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  9. I like Donovan in the 2 slot against righty pitching, playing left field primarily. But I want a solid young bullpen arm to go along with him.

    Unfortunately, Sonny Gray just went to STL for 75 over 3 years. Not sure if Framber fits there at this point.

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    • The Astros are a team in decline. Lets face it, everyone who played in 2023 is a year older. Who thinks that the 41 year old Verlander, the 32 year old Altuve, firust baseman Abreu or Bregman is going to have a career year? Or MCCuellers? Alvarez, Tucker and McCormick may very well have career years. If Crane is going to hold the line on spending to the luxury tax limit, it looks the Astros are trying complete an inside straight. But, then again, what do i know.

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      • OK – I’ll bite Tominator. I think the Astros will get more out of Verlander than they did in 2023 – because he will be here for 6 months instead of 2 months and that will be an improvement over whoever sucked up those 4 months of starts. I think the Astros will get more out of Altuve, because I believe he will be closer to 162 games than to 90 games played in 2024. Abreu? I can’t argue with you on that one – but he does have the potential to be decently productive in 2024, I mean he did drive in 90 runs in 2023. Bregman is only going to be 30 years old – not likely to fall off the world. You would think that the youth they do have – Tucker, Alvarez (who missed a lot of time) , Chas, Diaz, Pena, Brown, France, could all have something in the tank to add to the team. Sure they may fall some more, but there is potential for some improvement.

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      • We always talk about the farm system being depleted. And yet new guys keep showing up every year. My guy in 2024 is Loperfido. And beyond our system, I look for Dana Brown to make a move or two. We’ll see how things go on that front.

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      • I’ll say this for Abreu. He was 8th in the bigs in the number of runners in scoring position he saw. He was 14th in LOB. He typically batted better with RISP than he did the rest of the time. No one has stated the case more than the people on this site about his decline, and I am like you I expect it to be worse this year but I hope for the best.

        This team also has Yainer Diaz, Chas McCormick, Cristian Javier, Jeremy Pena, Hunter Brown, and you already mentioned Tucker and Alvarez. That is a lot of 26 and below beef. There is also a slew 26-29 guys that have a chance to be successful. Yes, Altuve and Verlander are core guys and they are getting long in the tooth, but if they are good this year this team is sitting in a good spot. It’s hard to not decline some after 7 straight ALCS appearances, 4 WS appearances in that time, and 2 WS wins, but I think the youth on this team is good and can keep it going a bit longer (assuming Tucker stays).

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  10. Has anyone noticed Bregman trade is trending on twitter. It was in response to Dan Duquette saying the Astros are entertaining offers on him. The fans who have been booing him for 4 years are now imploring their team to go get him.

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      • Trade Framber, Meyers, maybe Pena. The biggest problem is Dana Brown. Poor Negotiator, Poor Decisions, Weak Presence. Several other GMs beat him to the Deal.

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    • My understanding of what Duquette said – I wouldn’t be surprised if the Astros were listening to offers. He was giving his opinion as a former GM. He didn’t suggest that he had inside information that the Astros were entertaining offers, only that he would be.

      I wouldn’t be. Right now he is perfect for what he does well. You can comfortably bat him 2nd or 3rd or even 4th, because he works a pitcher, can draw a walk, is tough to strikeout, and can still hit a mistake into the crawford. Do the seemingly endless barrage of easy, lazy pop flies to left and left center aggravate me, of course. He is making 30 million dollars to be the guy that he was in 2019. And he is not. But he is far from the biggest issue on this team. And like I said before, this team does not have a history in the Crane era of trading stars just because they are pending free agency at the end of the year. Especially when that deal will have to include a return third baseman or we turn that position into a black hole, and that limits the return in other ways. There is no way I can think that you trade Alex Bregman and end up a better team for 2024 after.

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  11. Good morning. It’s safe to say things are heating up. Apparently, it’s going to be an active week for MLB player movement. If the Astros really are considering a deal for Bregman (and so far it’s all speculation) then maybe they should talk to the Reds about Framber. Cincinnati really needs starting pitching, and they’ve got a couple of options at third base, both minimum wage guys who might already produce the offense Bregman supplies us. Quality of defense is another story though, but looking at Baseball Savant, Bregman’s range is not what it once was either.

    If Dana Brown shocked us and moved both guys, getting youth in return, then suddenly we’d have some spare change to work with.

    Historically of course, we’ve always allowed our FA’s to walk at the end of their contracts. Maybe Brown is of the opinion that getting new talent for these guys is a better strategy.

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  12. Let me ask this. We won 106 games in 2022. Last year we won 90. I felt like our floor was 90, our ceiling was 98. I think Baker managed us to the floor (I also know there will be some agreement with that sentiment).

    It’s early. But let’s say there are no major moves outside of a medium leverage bullpen arm and a back up catcher that are both gotten cheap. What do you think the current floor/ceiling is on this team?

    I’m gonna say – floor 88, ceiling 95. I would agree with Tom earlier, though I won’t overstate the level of decline, this is a team with a few guys that are only going to be a year older. I still think they win the West.

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    • Consider a few things:Without Altuve – 24-21With Altuve – 66-51

      2023Home – 39-42Away – 51-30Overall – 90-72ANA – 9-4OAK – 10-3SEA – 4-9TEX – 9-4Pyth – 93-69

      2022Home – 55 – 26Away – 51 – 30Overall – 106-56ANA – 13-6OAK – 12-7SEA – 12-7TEX – 14-5

      A 16 game swing is pretty big, but we had a slight dip in performance thanks to the WBC and started two rookie pitchers most of the year due to injuries. We played fewer in division games this year and while we had a negative 5 game swing against SEA were close to target with the other teams. For 2024 the big question in my mind is health. Dan always asks which player is indispensable and I don’t want to supply an answer and jinx anyone.

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  14. Steven, I think this club can win 100 in 2024 with good health. Using historical stats, we have the pitchers. And we’ll get more offensive production from the catcher position, Altuve and Alvarez. Abreu might even give us a bit of a bounce back. And someone might show up from the minors. All that said, if Brown thinks he can play late into October and at the same time better prepare the Astros for 2025 and beyond, I’m all ears.

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