Is the rest of the ALCS a referendum on Dusty Baker?

Early on Monday evening, after the Astros lost one “must win” Game 2 on the way to an absolutely, positively, there ain’t no doubt “must win” Game 3, Chip Bailey sent me a text. Chip is the founder of Chipalatta, and our little back and forth went as follows:

Chip: So, cue the dusty naysayers?

Dan P: You don’t have to cue them; they’ve been complaining the whole time.

Chip: For sure, but I’m guessing the volume will now go up even more.

Dan P: Oh sure – frankly, this one was on Framber……I was hoping Dusty would go out on top……Last year.

First of all, can the Astros come back from this deep hole in a playoff series? Well, not looking back too far, they fell into a 0-2 in the 2019 World Series with two losses at home against the Nationals and then won three straight on the road before falling a few outs (or a Gerrit Cole pitching change) short of a Game 7 win. Even more recently, they started off 0-3 in the 2020 ALCS against the Rays and crawled back through three straight wins before coming up short in Game 7.

So, the Astros certainly could come back and at least make this series competitive. But going back to the question in the title of this piece, will the results of this series make a difference in whether Dusty Baker returns in 2023.

In the middle of this article……Coaching Notes: Counsell, Astros, Rays – MLB Trade Rumors

… They discuss the possibility that Baker may not want to manage here anymore due to bumping heads with Dana Brown over the Martin Maldonado vs. Yainer Diaz usage as catcher. This has been the biggest complaint coming from fandom about the Baker situation, and if Dana Brown is not taking Baker’s side on this, I say good. (As long as Jim Crane does not send Brown packing and re-signs Baker to another one-year contract because of it).

While earlier in the season, there were probably equal complaints about Maldy playing (and not hitting) in front of Diaz and the usage of Chas McCormick, who was certainly a better power bat than either Jake Meyers or Mauricio Dubon. That has died down more lately as Chas is in the lineup most games down the stretch and into the playoffs.

But the Diaz situation has gotten worse down the stretch as with both Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley back from injury and with Jose Abreu knocking in a bunch of runs, Diaz only starts when he catches now. And Dusty has decided that Maldy will start at catcher, come hell or high water. Diaz had not been allowed to catch either Justin Verlander or Framber Valdez and not that much of anyone else.

Diaz had been on a very nice run with the bat when he was getting consistent at bats, but lately, it has been a late-inning pinch-hitting appearance or almost nothing.

When we look at the current series against the Rangers, the biggest complaint against Dusty Baker to date was letting Martin Maldonado bat with the bases loaded in Game 1, where he struck out in one of the few threats the team had. Of course, when he did pinch hit for Maldy with the bases loaded in Game 2, Diaz, who again has been getting few at bats lately, struck out himself. So, Dusty can go nyah, nyah at us all and say he did it our way, and it did not work.

Some folks may say that Dusty should have taken Framber out earlier in Game 2, but really, taking your All-Star pitcher and at one-time Cy Young contender after 2.2 innings is plenty early.

Trying to look at this from the outside, other folks probably think we are idiots for wanting to get rid of our World Series Championship manager over a lineup decision. They probably want us to get a life and stop complaining. But we are not idiots, and we have seen enough baseball to know that playing Maldy so much more than Diaz not only affected Diaz’s development but it cost this team wins this season. Period.

So, a few questions, my dear readers.

  • Can this team get it together and make this a series?
  • If they lose this series, is Dusty out? Is he out any ways?
  • If the decision is up to Dusty, is he coming back?
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50 responses to “Is the rest of the ALCS a referendum on Dusty Baker?”

  1. A really changed up lineup tonight behind Javier

    Altuve 2B
    Brantley LF
    Bregman 3B
    Alvarez DH
    Abreu 1B
    Tucker RF
    Dubón CF
    Peña SS
    Maldonado C

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    • Given the opportunity, I feel Dusty will return. Whether Crane gives him that opportunity, I have no clue. I hope he follows what Brown wants.

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  3. I’ve already had my referendum on Baker and he lost in a landslide to a guy to be named later.
    Until Baker is gone from Houston, I’m rooting for the Rangers. Or whoever is playing against the Astros.
    Whether that’s days, weeks, months, or years doesn’t matter.

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  4. Well Dan, you brought it up. First of all, if the Astros win tonight, yes, they can win this series.

    But, more likely, this series has become the requiem for Dusty Baker rather than a referendum.

    Our far superior catcher made two starts behind the plate over the past month. He was effectively shut down. He never did get the experience of working with Framber Valdez or Justin Verlander during the season. His development was stifled. Imagine an injury to Maldonado at any point during the past two months.

    One of our best hitters was lost by the managers decision making. He posted an .897 OPS in June, an .854 in July, .895 in August and despite dwindling play, a .941 OPS in September/October.

    How many guys on the Astros hit .301/.339/.585/.924 after the All Star break? Dusty Baker took one of our best offensive weapons out of the equation. His sabotage was not intentional, but rather ignorance, stubbornness, a flat out refusal to accept the resource he had in front of his nose.

    Tonight Dusty scrambles. He sits Chas, hitting a soft .316 in the post season, because he just just can’t bench the irrelevant, washed up guy hitting .143. He had to do something, but he simply could not do the right thing.

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    • “His sabotage was not intentional…”

      Actually, I do think it was intentional. For reasons that I’m told can’t be mentioned here. But that doesn’t make it any less true.

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      • You have absolutely zero proof that what you’re hinting at is even remotely true. I believe Baker deserves to be criticized for numerous things but you have absolutely no way to substantiate what you claim is the reason for his managerial decisions.

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      • I have just as much “proof” of it being true as you have of it being false. Besides, opinions have no need to “proof”.

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      • I made no claim about why he makes certain decisions. You made an accusation. One you can’t possibly substantiate.

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      • Listen if he was making decisions based on the “R” word – Pressly would not be his go to closer. Whatever his problems with Chas it’s more likely old school vs newer school

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      • You gentlemen are making assumptions. And we all know what that accomplishes.
        The “R” word I’m thinking of is multisyllabic and contains more than 4 letters.
        It would serve y’all right if McCormick went to a division rival and spent the prime of his career driving in runs and making great catches for them instead of the Astros because of the way he’s been treated in Houston.

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  8. The win we needed. Frenchy, Maldy with big hits. Altuve hit the ball hard all night. Tucker showed reason to be encouraged. Yordan remains remarkable. But Reptil is the guy that keeps coming up our stopper in the post season. Need a win tomorrow.

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  9. Got to admit that the lineup tonight did their jobs. Bregman and Brantley were 0fers but Bregman did get a walk and both made some very good plays. We must have hit a half dozen balls that were caught at the wall and one that was over the fence. Another game that was pins and needles but the guys came through. Let’s get that win tomorrow and it’s a new series. What’s strange is Maldy’ BA is higher than Altuve, Bregman, and Tucker. Who would have thought that?I don’t care as long as we can win again tomorrow.

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  10. Thoughts
    – In a critical game at this point in the playoffs, how can you have an ump who was this bad at balls/strikes behind the plate? Angel Hernandez not available?
    – The Astros won 8-5 in a game where very little went their way except the bases loaded passed ball. One of the 2 run home runs should not have happened because the guy in front of him went around a check swing and the inning should have been over. Not sure if I’ve seen a game where so many home run worthy hits fell just short (or as Zanuda said, just over the wall and brought back).
    – Yordan is an extraordinary clutch hitter – one of the greatest of all times
    – Javier gave them exactly the kind of start they needed – not giving up runs early – taking the air out of the stadium for most of this start
    – Very happy to see Tucker walk three times – doing a much better job of distinguishing between balls and strikes – and then finally ripping one to the fence on a line
    – I was amazed at the ball that the young Ranger hit that Tucker mis-judged – it was totally ripped and you rarely see Tucker do that
    – Maldy was big last night – well he’s big all the time – but that’s another story
    – Altuve really was hitting the ball hard, one over the fence and two way the heck out there
    – Tonight is the next “must” win for the Astros.

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  12. The Astros hit the ball hard enough last night to score 12 or more runs. That encourages me to believe they are about ready to collectively post some numbers. If we manage to screw up the Rangers bullpen game tonight, it puts us in a pretty good position.

    Urquidy is the wild card. Five quality innings from him combined with early offensive support again would be stunning. Hopefully Brown and France each have a quality inning in them too.

    Excepting Framber and Hector, our pitching staff has really held the Rangers scary bats in check. That could change at any time. We’ve got to put those runs up and get them to start pressing.

    We can tie the series tonight. There is no need for home field advantage. We just have to win a game at a time.

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      • The gold glove reminds of that time I was listening to Mad Dog radio in 2013, and Russo was like, it’s only week 6 of the college football season, I have never even heard of this Johnny Manziel kid, and people want me to vote for him?

        I just thought, at week 6, not week 1 when no one knew who he was, but in week 6, you don’t? If you are a casual watcher of the sport, why the heck do you have a Heisman vote? Pena was just above average in most stats last year defensively, yet he wins the award for best defender? I’m sure these guys will take it, but wow.

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  15. Right now, this very second, there is not a hitter a pitcher dreads facing more with no leeway to put him on base than Yordan. Not Judge, not Ohtani, not Acuna, not Olson, not his teammate Tucker, no one. I am not going to say Yordan is the best hitter in baseball because that is just not empirically true, but I do believe he is the most dangerous, and yes, empirically very close to the best.

    I don’t think a series is a referendum on anyone but the pitchers and hitters that either execute to win it or don’t execute to lose it. The regular season is the manager’s job to get to the postseason by using frequency and volume to get them playing October baseball. I am much more interested in comparing Diaz and Maldy over a 150 games to figure out which one should get 120 and which one should get 30 to give me the best chance in those 120. Both these guys are major leaguers, they are both capable of sounding off in any individual game (like Maldy did last night) or striking out in a critical spot (as they both have). But frequency and volume. Which one will do which activity more than the other. In a short series I am actually OK with playing guys that make other guys more comfortable and relying on singular game performances from the guys that are supposed to carry the load like Altuve, Tucker, Bregman, and of course Alvarez, who has more than kept up his end of that.

    That frequency and volume is my issue with Baker. Certainly it holds true with Diaz and Maldy. But it also holds true with Abreu and any warm body he could put there in June when he was hitting like Maldy. You don’t have to take guys out at the knees, you don’t have to completely replace Maldy with Diaz, you just have to move the needle on F&V to give you more punch. You don’t have to take Abreu’s job, you just have to move F&V to the left. You don’t have to stop playing Meyers in CF and sitting Chas, just move F&V a little bit when you see that a guy has earned that F&V moved. Even Pena had some stretches that were worthy of him watching Dubon play some SS. I guess I am a Baker “naysayer” but to be fair Chip, I have been pretty consistent at it since June. It was hard to be a naysayer last year because the pitching was so good that you didn’t notice all the little things on the way to 106 wins.

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  17. I like Dubon in the # 2 hole. Hopefully he’ll hit like he’s been hitting. Like to see Chaz play well tonight also. Sure need this one.

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  18. Thank you coach for sitting Diaz, literally, this past month. Since he’s unable to play-swing the rust off the rest of the way, let him sit. It feels like an injustice otherwise.
    Jeremy Pena was a rookie in 2022 replacing Correa. He was a whiz with the glove, had some pop in his stick but weak hitting. His upside was such you stuck with him. Didn’t bring in a vet before the season started or at the trade deadline to support/supplant him. There was no rationalizing his PT or lack thereof. You did not tell us we would thank you for limiting his opportunities because that did not happen.
    Offensively the lineup carried Pena until he lit up late in the season, eventually winning two MVP awards, a Gold Gove and finished 5th in ROY rankings, helping the tm win it’s second WS. There was never a debate regarding his inexperience that year nor was he made to sit when his offense regressed in 2023.
    Martin Maldonado, the teams C sensation these past several years completely fell off a cliff in 2023, his defensive numbers crashing below the Mendoza line as his hitting always has. Yet, he was not demoted or made to sit when a better offensive/defensive option was available in Diaz. Why? You, and some on the P staff tooted Maldy’s horn, to have him behind the dish when they pitched. Now, the Astros are not the only team to allow P to customize position players on the days they pitch, but how many of those teams had a potential ROY and possibly future All-Star lurking in the shadows on their rosters? No one, except the P staff perhaps is thanking you for holding Diaz back.
    Yainer Diaz has warts offensively. But so did Pena. MM always had warts offensively. But what Diaz lacks in knowledge and experience, he made up for offensively and defensively. The numbers when comparing the two do not lie. How many games did the P staff lose because the lineup failed to deliver runs in close, winnable games? I guarantee more with Maldy than Diaz because MM got most of the AB’s over Diaz? One can only wonder what a season of Diaz would look like behind the dish.
    According to GM Dana Brown, Diaz is the future. But what if you are brought back along with MM in 2024? That is a very strong possibility. I hope Yainer has tough skin and a short memory and a forgiving soul. I do not.

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    • This team can come back from this 2-1 deficit.
      Apparently Dusty might consider going elsewhere if what the article says about clashing with GM is true.
      Let him prove his detractors wrong on another team. I sincerely wish him well elsewhere

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  19. Huge game tomorrow. Another must win. Time to take control. Get Verlander a bunch of runs to work with for a change. We’re overdue to give Montgomery a rough outing. 20 outs from the pen, none needed from the back end. Amazing. All kinds of good at bats. Fun to watch.

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    • If Montgomery is throwing first pitch strikes like he did in game 1, we need to jump on him quickly. Don’t let him get settled in.

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  20. Messages found floating in my bowl of Alpha Bits this morning:

    Jose Abreu – why did you hold out on us all season?

    Stanek is suddenly remarkably efficient [throw 1 pitch, get 2 outs, get win; easy-peasy].

    Hunter Brown – Boy, was that a critical 3 Zeroes to hang on the scoreboard for your team!

    Yordan Alvarez – Yawn – only 3 measely RBIs; not a single moonshot. What’s wrong, man, are you still suffering from that virus?

    Jose Altuve – If the Fonze played baseball – Aaaaaaayyyyyy!

    Alex Bregman – To life, to life, l’chaim! May all your futures be pleasant ones, not like our present ones! Drink, l’chaim, to life!

    Mauricio Dubon – Parlez vous all you voulez vous, Frenchy!

    Chaz McCormick – Everybody likes cake; but how sweet it is when you come along and put icing on the cake!

    King Tuck – Come back soon; your presence is sorely missed in Asgard!

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  22. Last night was huge. I was glad to see the offense have another big day. Some thoughts –

    Abreu’s 3 run HR was huge for both the team and him. Granted, Chapman has been on the bus back and forth to AAA this year, throws 91 MPH tops, is lefty, and threw one right in the middle of the box. Abreu should hit that pitch. But credit Abreu for taking advantage and not just hitting it but parking it.

    Brown was lights out in that 1st inning. 2nd inning got scary, Abreu makes a play he is supposed to make but you have to be happy that he did because it gives him a little more confidence in what he is doing, and confidence is what slows the game down. Semien picked a bad day to put his batting gloves in his pocket. Third inning for Brown they had some good exit velo’s but they hit it right at people. Dubon made some good plays in CF all night not just for Brown.

    I might have tried another inning from Urquidy instead of 3 from Brown, but it worked. Even the B part of the bullpen threw up 0s. You know thats when the pitching is going right because we crushed their B guys.

    There will be a lot of second guessing going on in the Dallas Morning News this morning. Should they have started Heaney instead of Dunning? Probably not. In Bochy’s defense Alvarez, Tucker and Brantley’s presence makes you want to lean to a lefty, but Heaney got ambushed. The Astros seem like they want to get out to fast starts right now, so Dunning may have been ambushed the same way Scherzer and Heaney were if he started as well.

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    • Lets say the pitchers name was Chapman, it was Bradford. Saw Bradford in my head and my fingers typed Chapman. But if it happens to Chapman it would be a double win.

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  23. Thoughts
    – The Astros did exactly what they needed to do the last two games – get off to a good start hitting and then kept pressing the advantage
    – Yordan is in their heads. They are putting out mediocre left-handed pitchers with the thought that they will hold Alvarez and Tucker down (and Tucker is holding himself down). Yordan is zoned in.
    – I’m not going to say that Abreu wasn’t disappointing for the first two months of the season and so-so after that until a big RBI September. But this is his value. They bring in those lefties for Yordan and they have to face a big righty like Abreu who is undoubtedly healthy now and it has been huge in the post season.
    – Getting back to 2-2 is big – gotta keep the foot on their throat

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    • Abreu hits lefties so much better than righties that if he is behind Alvarez an opposing manager might want to pass on bringing in a lefty to face Alvarez – especially given that Alvarez apparently doesn’t care that much which hand you throw with.

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  25. My advice to Tucker. The first pitch thrown should be a strike so be ready to hit it. They know you’re struggling so prove to them otherwise. Stop looking for that favorite pitch and let ‘er rip.

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  26. Obviously, I’m a big Chas fan. But his bases loaded at bat had to be his worst of the year. With the luxury of hindsight, how come Brantley has not pinch hit tonight in a couple of key situations? Tough luck for Pena, his almost two run single would have been a heck of a boost for him and given us a three run lead. Nobody said it was going to be easy. Games 3 and 4 were.

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  31. Of all the playoff moments since 2015…That HR is way up on the list. We better continue to enjoy Jose Altuve while he’s still part of our lives because I do not think we shall see his like again.

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