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Astros’ discussion points for the weekend

Dusty Baker is not going anywhere at this point, so let’s talk about a couple other things.

David Stearns – Potential President of Baseball Operations (POBO) – David Stearns is currently an advisor to the Milwaukee Brewers front office and his contract with the Brewers runs out at the end of this season, which along with his connections to the Astros is why his name is being brought up at this point.  He became GM of the Brewers in 2015 at the age of 30 years old and was in charge as the team had their most successful run in their history, making the playoffs from 2018 – 2021. Stearns was given the President of Baseball Operations title in 2019 to go along with GM, and in 2020 hired a GM to work under him. After the disappointing 2022 season, where he traded Josh Hader at the deadline and the Brewers fell like a rock out of the playoff race, he moved to the consulting role. 

To start his career, he had interned with the Pirates, and early on worked with the Mets, MLB , the Arizona Fall League and the Indians, before coming in as Jeff Luhnow’s only assistant GM at the time at the age of 27 in 2011. He worked in lockstep with Luhnow between 2011 and 2015 before moving on like other proteges, Mike Elias and Sig Mejdal.

Cons – Do we want to go back to one of Luhnow’s proteges? Does he bring in a win-at-all costs philosophy that is what brought in the “IT” scandal in the first place? He had success with the Brewers, but no farther than a loss to the Dodgers in one NLCS. Would he have real president of baseball operations power or would he be bypassed by the owner?

Pros – He was not here in 2017 and was not here when Carlos Beltran and Alex Cora were brought in and ran amok. You would expect the POBO to be the one to set the direction for the whole team, taking guidance from the owner, but standing up to him as needed. You would expect that he would be the final voice on how the GM (Dana Brown) and the manager (Dusty Baker or this spot for lease) work together. He would give the team a bit of balance with his metric heavy background as Baker is obviously old school draw things up in the dirt and Brown has a foot in both areas with old time scouting tied to newer metric decision making.

Where do you fall on this? This may end up moot as he is from New York and may choose to head back that way. Or perhaps he will look at how the Mets do their business and may choose to come to a place where there is a better ownership group in place.

Where is the starting staff headed? On the very plus side, the team will be having every Thursday off in September, which will allow the team to make sure there is plenty of rest for those who need it. But what will the rotation look like headed into the playoffs if the team is so fortunate as to make it. Remember that a team normally can make it easily through the playoffs with four starters with numerous travel days off.

Sure Things – Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez – this is not even debatable if these two are vertical headed down the stretch. Yes, JV has had an up and down playoff history, but this is a season where due to injury he will probably head into the playoffs in the 155-160 inning range, so hopefully he will be a little bit fresher than in previous years. Framber needs to channel the 2022 playoff Framber and not the falling apart over every little thing 2023 Framber. Either way he is the co-ace of this crew.

Most Likely – Cristian Javier – In his 2022 ALCS start, he gave up one hit in 5.1 innings. In his 2022 World Series start he gave up 0 hits in 6 innings in the key turnaround game that propelled them to the championship. Yeah, we will take that. Last season he gave up a brilliant slash line against of .170 BA/ .252 OBP/ .557 OPS with a 2.54 ERA in the regular season. This season he has given up a meh slash line of .239 BA/ .313 OBP/ .750 OPS with a 4.65 ERA, that for a recent 11 start stretch was a bad .276 BA/.388 OBP/ .911 OPS with a 7.46 ERA. He has pitched a bit better lately, but do they trust him to be the #3 with everything on the line?

Who is Number 4? – J.P.  France, Hunter Brown, and Jose Urquidy – In my mind, J.P. France should be the #3 in this rotation, hands down. But….as we have seen the manager does not necessarily cherish his rookies as much as his veterans when there is a choice. This may well depend on who they trust better to be the long reliever ala Luis Garcia with his 5 inning, key outing in the 2022 ALDS. Urquidy has pitched well in the playoffs but was not active for the 2022 ALDS and ALCS last year. Brown pitched well in the 2022 ALDS and ALCS, but inactive for the WS. France should be in the rotation, and it feels like they want Brown’s big arm available for a few innings behind him. But this will be an area to watch.

What would you do?

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35 responses to “Astros’ discussion points for the weekend”

  1. I don’t know enough about what changes Stearns would make as POBO to have an opinion. I firmly believe there needs to be a balance between trusting the numbers and trusting the eye test.

    It’s tough to suggest a rotation for the playoffs this far out. The Astros close the season with three games @SEA and three games @ARI. Ideally they could create a little cushion over the next 15 games, win the SEA series, and use the final series to lineup their desired rotation. If not you probably keep the rotation as Framber – Verlander – Brown – Javier – France and whichever of those final 3 lands on an off day becomes a bullpen guy in the first series. I don’t hate the idea of Brown being counted on to enter some games in the 4th or 5th inning and bridge to the bullpen when needed.

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  2. Is there anything to the Sterns concept beyond the brief mention made by Rosenthal early this week? I think Dana Brown mentioned at one point that one of the appealing aspects of the Houston job was that he would not be reporting to anyone other than Crane.

    On the other hand, maybe Crane has decided that baseball operations is a hard job and he does not want it any longer.

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  3. We saw a glimpse of the old Reptile against the Yankees last Sunday. He was in good shape until Maldy made him hang that slider to the new martain kid.

    Seriously though, looks like Verlander and hopefully a level headed Framber. Then I’m thinking more along the lines of 2017. Tell the starters to give you 9 or 12 great outs and then get a fresh arm in there and run with him until the slightest hint of trouble. I’m thinking back to Charlie Morton and Lance. France, Javier, Brown and Urquidy are all capable getting those early outs. If they do, we’re in pretty good shape.

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  4. I have one day left before we leave, so about tonight’s game. We face Lefty Blake Snell, who has pitched well this year, especially lately.
    Brantley is 4 for 6 against Snell. I would go with:
    Altuve
    Pena
    Alvarez
    Bregman
    Tucker
    Abreu
    Brantley
    McCormick
    Diaz
    As far as a playoff rotation, I don’t think that should be set until we see how guys pitch in the final weeks of the season. I’m in on JV and Framber for top two.
    I am glad to see the Astros with six starters, because no one leaves their starters in for long times in the playoffs anymore. Moving 2 or3 effective starters to long duty in the bullpen in the playoffs is a luxury, especially if they have experience and success in that role.
    Brown as a late inning guy with his stuff is another alternative. That gives you Pressly, Neris, Graveman, Abreu, Montero and Brown as impressive one or two inning guys. Stanek could be counted in, too, if his ankle heals, That leaves 1 or 2 other starters for possible longer relief or as a 4th starter. It also leaves (gulp) Maton.

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  5. I don’t care about things not on the field. I don’t think I knew who Stearns was when he was here the first time.

    Plenty of rest every Thursday. That’s good, McCormick and Diaz need it. He is riding those horses straight out. They need the break.

    I would guess it’s heading back to a 5 man rotation with Urquidy in the bullpen for the rest of the year.

    Javier has not pitched well. I think a combination of a small tick in velo, better scouting reports against, and hitters walking into the box knowing what to lay off now is killing him. He also needs to be in routine – when he has exactly 5 days of rest (19 starts this year) – 3.48 ERA and .217 BAA – still not last year numbers but good ones. When its either few or more, it has not been pretty, but they are in small sample (9 starts). I would start him but I would do so on a short leash knowing I have 2 of the other 3 starters down there as needed.

    France is older than Javier, Brown, and Urquidy. He has more professional experience. Now – he has never pitched in front of a sold out playoff crowd trying to blow the roof off in a nationally televised playoff game. He has shown more command than Brown and better stuff then Urquidy. Brown has the best stuff of the 3 but has been prone to blowups and command issues. I would wait and see how the stretch run shakes out.

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    • Chas played in 25/28 games in August with 24 of those being starts. Diaz only played in 24/28 and came off the bench more often. My complaint is that Diaz only started 9/24 at C, if I recall. With Brantley in the mix it becomes more difficult to keep both of them in the lineup.

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    • I don’t think Diaz is allowed to catch 2 of 3 games in any series. That would be a policy violation.

      That said, MM has hit lefties pretty well in 2023. Remarkably, the OPS is .882. Let’s hope it continues tonight.

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      • Wouldn’t it be cool if the skipper was enlightened enough to DH Maldy and catch Yainer in this situation?

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      • There are stories where the Astro players claim the batting eye is not good. Strange, the visiting teams have no issues with it.

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      • Well, it’s obviously Yainer’s fault that Hunter can’t get anybody out and nobody can hit the ball. Or maybe it’s because Chas is just too plump……

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  8. Man, I thought the ESPN broadcast guys were bad, but these AppleTV guys are much, much worse! Sure wish I was in range of a Houston radio broadcast…..

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    • Astros fans are really spoiled with a regular team like TK, Blummer, and Julia. They do a very, very good job on their broadcasts. If AT&T could keep the streams working from a technical standpoint, they’d be the best.

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  12. I skipped the game last night in favor of rum punch on the beach. Good decision.

    Dusty just could not resist a quip about Yainer and Hunter not being able to go deeper into a game. Seems nobody can fix that problem because Maldy could not either.

    A couple of weeks ago, Hunter was talking about changes he had just made to his delivery. Why in August? Did his pitching coach oversee the adjustments?

    The Astros had to try and hit the first good pitcher they’ve seen all week. They were not successful.

    No pressure on the Padres. They are playing loose right now.

    The Rangers sure are fading.

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    • 2 of them came off Brown, but 3 came off Urquidy. To answer your other question, as the season progresses and pitchers throw more pitches they are likely to unintentionally alter their delivery and aspects of the throwing motion. This is a big reason we pay pitching coaches. Regardless, Maldonado may have been offering a reason for Brown leaving so many pitches up in the zone.

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      • Part of it could also be that Maldy has a hard time throwing people out. He’s down to 15% CS. That might make the pitcher rush his delivery. Conversely, our back up catcher throws out 33%, well above league average.

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  15. I would like to see David Stearns hired as the president of baseball operations. Seeing his results with the Brewers, especially after moving away from Luhnow, prove that he is savvy in baseball circles and knowledge. He could be a great sounding board for Dana Brown.

    Regarding the starting staff, I feel Baker has hurt Hunter Brown in so much as Baker has thrown Brown off his routine when Baker moved Brown to relief even though it was temporary. Brown’s ERA is over 9 and his fastball speed is reduced since his first relief appearance this season. Now, Urquidy is having the same issues even though he was not very good before his injury list time and it is pronounced while in the bullpen. I agree, France should be number three but then, there’s Baker. I do worry about Valdez and his tendency to get rattled. I do have confidence in Verlander as he has the attitude of “just give me the ball and play defense for me.”

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  17. Another cardiac win last night. Didn’t see Friday’s game so I was spared the disappointment. Sure would be nice to win todays game in a decisive fashion.

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  18. Good morning,

    Jelly Fish have invaded. No swim today. But we have the best lineup we could ask for to win the series. This should be a ten run group. When Chas hits 8th and Diaz 9th, there is no rest for the pitcher trying to navigate this nine. I just wish we could pencil this group in on a regular basis.

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    • I’m guessing France is pretty tired. He’s never thrown so many innings, and those 20 MLB starts have likely been a bit more mentally taxing too.

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      • I think it’s time to throw the “Quality Start” book out the window and do some tandem pitching for these guys. If we burn them out before the “playoffs” it might not be a pretty picture. I’d rather see one guy go multiple innings than using 3 – 4 pitchers every game for one inning. No reason to have France pitch another inning accumulating 97 pitches. Kudos for Mushinki and Kuhnel to come in and help out for 3 innings. Brown has pitched 141 innings and France 127. We’ll need these guys for the playoffs. That’s right, I said playoffs where a while back I didn’t think we’d make it. But the offense has finally awaken these last few weeks.
        Oh BTW outside of Urquidy, (returned from IL) was our September call up unless I missed somebody. Keep it rolling guys.

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      • France has also thrown 19.1 AAA innings. The Astros are 13-8 in his starts. I’m not sure how we would have gotten all those innings pitched without his help. It would be great to see the Stros build up a real cushion at the top of the standings, hopefully affording the luxury of a skipped start for Brown and France at some point.

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  20. Daveb7, you nailed that puppy in the head about a 10-run lineup today. And the tm caught some breaks as well. Yordan looks looks strong slamming line drives or HR’s.

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  21. The A’s starter tonight, Mason Miller, has pitched just 39.1 career minor league innings over the past three seasons, and 23.0 MLB innings total. 21 of those innings happened in April and May, the last 2 on September 6. He’s had elbow problems. But, he’s also got good stuff. I hope tonights bats can get on this guy early and often. He’s probably only got 3 innings max in him regardless, but we can’t expect to see yesterdays line up again either.

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