This could be a vital time for the Astros as they shape their team for the pennant run (or maybe …walk). While there is potential help for the position players when Yordan Alvarez returns…..and possibly when/if Michael Brantley is a participant and not a viewer, and there could be starting pitching help when Jose Urquidy returns from the IL – is there any relief for the Astros’ relief corps?
The reason this is even a question is pretty obvious. The Astros bullpen was the first or second-best bullpen in the AL heading into June, and now it has dropped to sixth in ERA in the league, and that puts them only 0.14 ahead of the 11th-place bullpen, the Rays.
The offenders are plentiful. Rafael Montero is getting the most heat, and his numbers for 10 appearances in June (10.24 ERA and 1.862 WHIP) are awful, but amazingly better than May (12.10 ERA and 2.172 WHIP). But he has had “assistance” in the bullpen’s fall from grace. Phil Maton, who was brilliant early, has been much more pedestrian in June with a 4.50 ERA and 1.583 WHIP. Bryan Abreu, who looked like he was headed towards a new job as closer-in-wait, has fallen back with a 4.22 ERA and 1.594 WHIP, capped off with his weekend appearance against the Dodgers where he gave up a hit and three walks in 0.1 IP leading to Ryne Stanek’s buckling knee balk. Speaking of Stanek, in 7 appearances in June, he has put up a Montero-esque 8.44 ERA and 2.063 WHIP.
Right now, it is pretty tough for Dusty to throw 3 or more relievers out there without one of them failing him. Hector Neris has been quite good this month. Ryan Pressly has been overall good with a few drops. Seth Martinez has looked good in spots and did help them hold on Wednesday in the 11th inning, though an insanely great play by Mauricio Dubon had a lot to do with that.
It is an interesting dynamic in that bullpens seem to flow and ebb together. One guy fails, and that negative thought gets in the next guy’s head, and pretty soon, they are all pitching tight as a drum. In the 2023 playoffs, the opposite happened. It seemed like the whole bullpen was in synch, mowing down the opposition in game after game.
So, what can be done here, and what are the pitfalls…..
- It looks like Montero needs an in-season vacation from the game. Sounds to me like he should have a blister on his finger, he slept wrong on his arm, his dog ate his homework excuse, and sit out for a couple weeks on the IL. That is unless someone wants to convince Jim Crane to swallow what’s left of his contract. Hey, what is about $28 MM to a billionaire? Or…..they keep rolling him out and taking lots of Rolaids. I actually prefer Tums.
- Hopefully, Stanek, Maton, and Abreu will have better fortunes going forward, but it’s tough to bet on that.
- Getting Urquidy back may help, also. Someone who is a decent pitcher could then be put in the bullpen as a long reliever, whether it is Urquidy or Ronel Blanco or Brandon Bielak.
- Matt Gage hasn’t looked too bad in a small cup of coffee – maybe he could slide into a spot. The ‘Stros picked up Joel Kuhnel from the Reds, who has poor numbers but decent advanced metrics behind them. I’m assuming that Spencer Watkins picked up from the Orioles is going to continue to be a starter, but who knows. I’m also assuming if they were thinking they were going to get a lot out of Shawn Dubin he would not have disappeared shortly after being called up.
- Blake Taylor (5.72 ERA) and Enoli Paredes (7.18 ERA) both have MLB experience, but they are both struggling at AAA this year. Looking off the 40-man roster – Joe Record, the closer for the Space Cowboys, has a 3.73 ERA, 1.245 WHIP, and 10 saves in 29 appearances this season. The Astros have a few folks putting up good numbers at AA, but whether they would hop any to the majors without a stop at AAA is an unanswered question.
- But the real, important question is whether/how GM Dana Brown is going to try and reshape this bullpen through trades. One good thing is that they don’t have to chase a closer, so finding some good set-up help may be the aim. If they are just looking for a rental, that would bring the price down. If they could trade someone like Jake Meyers and maybe a lower prospect or two for a good set-up man from a team giving up on the race, that might be a solid option.
Whatever happens during the next month and change, this will be the first real test for Dana Brown and perhaps a signal of how he is working with Manager Dusty Baker, Owner Jim Crane, and his oldies but goodies advisors in Jeff Bagwell and Reggie Jackson.
What do you think they should do?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
32 responses to “Astros 2023: Is there any relief for the relief pitching?”
Trading Jake plus a lower prospect or two seems like the best alternative but considering that would free up Chaz to be a full time OF and knowing how Dusty feels about him it will be an interesting scenario. We do need another good set up guy. Probably more so than another bat and good bats are likely to be more expensive.
I like many others have no idea what our management team is thinking (Jon Singleton????). But we need to do something before it gets out of hand. The next two series should give us a pretty good idea of our dilemma. Hoping it works out for us.
LikeLike
Not that you’d WANY anyone on the Oakland bullpen, but the GM, David Forst can definitely be fleeced. One could even say he’s a moron.
But seriously I think most teams are waiting to see if their bullpen problems sort themselves out since pitching traditionally gets stronger as the season ages and the weather gets warmer (or so I’ve heard) Bullpen help is going to be at such a high premium at or near the trade deadline. I’m not sure how strong the ‘Stros farm teams are, but get ready to give up SOMETHING of value.
LikeLike
OK if David Forst can be had…..
I’m looking at the A’s relief pitchers – yaaargh – I feel like I’m looking at the Astros 2013 bullpen.
Sam Long 3.03 ERA / 1.112 WHIP looks good though he has a low strikeout rate
Lucas Erceg (which is an anagram for Grece?) has a 2.45 ERA and a 1.255 WHIP – strikes out a nice 10.8 / 9 IP but yikes walks 5.4/ 9 IP.
Every other one with decent looking stats is on the IL.
So let’s target Sam Long and we will send over Jon Singleton, Ryne Stanek and Enoli Paredes. Even Forst cannot be that stupid.
LikeLiked by 1 person
A stat heavy positive look at Framber
https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/framber-valdez-has-become-one-of-mlb-s-best-pitchers
LikeLike
We need pitching, a quality starter first. And anyone not a rental sure would hurt. We have to be prepared to lose a prospect or three that we’ll groan about. Might not be worth it in 2023. But that makes Blanco and/or France pen options if Urquidy shows up and is effective. And if our GM can finagle pen help too, by all means. We know the old saying. Can’t have too much pitching.
But, almost everyone needs pitching! We need to hope our present pen group is stuck in a pretty bad slump. I certainly would not give up on Montero. He’s been worse than terrible. But sometimes he’s been unfortunate. Freeman got ahold of a quality pitch for his 2000th hit. I hope the club has exhausted all efforts to see if Montero has been tipping. Next step might be a sports physiologist!
LikeLike
Pedro Leon is peaking in value right now.
LikeLike
I was looking at a post from November 2018 looking at the Astros offseason.
Mr. Bill posted me a question where I looked pretty darned smart
Mr. Bill
NOVEMBER 6, 2018 @ 1:23 PM
Which five among these organizational position players do you think are the most -and the least – likely to see playing time on the big club next year?
Kyle Tucker
Myles Straw
Yordan Alvarez
Garrett Stubbs
A. J. Reed
Derek Fisher
Drew Ferguson
Randy Cesar
Taylor Jones
Jack Mayfield
Nick Tanielu
Carmen Benedetti
Alex De Goti
Ronnie Dawson
Abraham Toro-Hernandez
Stephen Wrenn
Now, which of them would you be willing to package in a trade for Realmuto or Paxton?
REPLY
Dan P
NOVEMBER 6, 2018 @ 4:24 PM
My five most likely
Tucker
Straw
Alvarez
Stubbs
Fisher???
Least Likely
Every one else tied????
LikeLike
But before I grew the big head – I moved to the next question where I look really stupid….
Mr. Bill
NOVEMBER 6, 2018 @ 1:29 PM
Which five among these organizational pitchers do you think are the most -and the least – likely to see playing time on the big club next year?
Forrest Whitely
JB Bukauskas
Francis Martes
Rogelio Armenteros
Trent Thornton
Cy Sneed
Ryan Hartman
Corbin Martin
Yoanys Quiyala
Dean Deetz
Brock Dyxxhoorn
Akeem Bostick
Brett Adcock
Brandon Bailey
Alex Winkleman
Now, which of them would you be willing to package in a trade for Realmuto or Paxton?
REPLY
Dan P
NOVEMBER 6, 2018 @ 4:25 PM
Most likely
Whitley
Bukauskas
Martes
Dykxhoorn
Armenteros
Thornton
Least likely
Not sure
LikeLike
Dan, what an outstanding look back into the past! Just to see who is still on the Astros as opposed to those who have left… WOW!
LikeLike
The pitch selection and overall location for Montero is not any different from last year. The difference is that when he throws a mistake it is getting hit hard this year. The splitter that Freeman hit for a double was 92 on the gun, but down the middle and hung at the knees. The fastball Will Smith hit out was 94, but right over the inner half about mid-thigh. If the former were a couple inches lower he gets an out on a swing. If the latter were eight inches higher he gets a swing and a miss.
LikeLike
The world champions are coming apart at the seams. I don’t think there is relief coming for the bullpen or for the club this year.
What I do think is that it is time to let our new GM to do what he was hired to do. use the draft and International market to resupply this organization.
LikeLiked by 1 person
We have become the ‘big ugly mess’ the rest of the league has been wanting to see. Sigh.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Last night was just another example of doing a little damage somewhere but having no one on base to take advantage. Seven hits isn’t lights out, but if it had been coupled 3 or 4 walks all of a sudden 7 hits can do better than 2 runs. Abreu was just not the guy to try and put pressure on them in the 1st inning, ending a good start with a double play. Imagine if one of Julks, Pena or McCormick had managed to get on base before Maldy’s homer. Instead they combined for 5 K’s and 1 BB.
I feel like Dusty is too old school and not looking at the numbers. In a vacuum Pena striking out on a pitch out of the zone is not rare. Every major leaguer does it. Altuve does. Bregman does it. I’ve yelled at the screen “why Yordan why.” Even he does it. It’s the frequency. There are too many guys in this lineup victims to frequency. It puts no pressure on their pitcher. And it puts a lot on ours.
Here is the problem. Dusty doesn’t really have alternatives. The best thing he can do is put Chas in there almost every day because he gets on base better than the rest of them, but he isn’t going to do that. Yainer doesn’t do great at getting on base, but he is impactful when he hits the ball – and Maldy is just terrible. Yainer should be catching 4 out of every 5 days so that Maldy can be replaced by Dubon in the every day lineup. It feels like shuffling deck chairs on the titanic – again 6 of the 9 starters in that lineup are below the .320 OBP league average – and 5 of those 6 aren’t just below that, they are below .300. And these are “impactful” bats like Dubon, Diaz, Julks, Pena (and what Abreu is supposed to be) – when they hit they hit, but when they don’t it seems they aren’t drawing a walk. Another game where a struggling starter in Montgomery throws just 91 pitches to get through 6.2.
And why not have a conversation with Abreu where you tell him that you have to DH him and put Yainer at 1B for now because if I have to pinch hit for Maldy late, and it actually goes our way and we tie the game up, we don’t have pitchers batting. Or even worse, a 3rd inning foul tip rings his bell and you have to take him out. Abreu is a pro, I am sure he will get it. And just let him know look you will be back on the field every day when Yordan is back in the DH role. I just don’t get this cat.
LikeLiked by 1 person
You make good points. I especially like your logic on Diaz playing more at 1B. I don’t know how capable he is there, but until you lose a game due to defensive lapse it makes sense. Not being in the clubhouse I’m making the assumption Dusty is not riding those guys making terrible outs. That needs to get cleaned up. If Pena is going to chase pitches out of the zone he should be trying to foul them off rather than put them in play. Everyone misjudges pitches and goes out of the zone, but the good hitters aren’t still trying to put it in the LF bleachers.
LikeLiked by 2 people
This is a test of The Emergency Broadcasting System.
LikeLike
Dusty Baker was on 790 Sports Talk yesterday discussing Montero. He said one of the things they are looking into is the possibility that Montero might be tipping his pitches. I would have thought the coaching staff would have already exhausted that possibility weeks ago.
LikeLiked by 2 people
I wonder how much of what we perceive as ‘impatience’ at the plate for our guys is a product of the umpiring crews regularly ringing us up on pitches significantly out of the zone. If I was a conspiracy theorist, I might think that our dear friend commissioner Manfred, being so publicly repentant about not crucifying every Astro in the dugout when he had the chance, sent out a memo to every umpiring crew to make sure the Astros get wrung up every time it is remotely possible.
LikeLiked by 2 people
I’m probably going down a rabbit hole here. Manfred and the umps are not making Julks chase 3 straight pitches out of the zone and strikeout. They don’t need to help him do that he does fine all by himself.
I’ve compared Pena to Khalil Greene a few times. That’s not an accident – that’s not me. That is who baseball reference calls his closest comparison. He is a .250 hitter with some power because he can’t read spin and goes after too many sliders out of the zone. So did Khalil Greene. He was out of baseball by 29. Everything happens in phases – your best bat to ball years are going to be 23-27. After that, your eyes to brain to hands slow just a smidgen, a hundredth of a second, but a lot hitters start doing other things better – particularly get smarter, learn their craft, use film, and they make up for (and sometimes outperform) that loss. Another few years, a little more. Greene was done with baseball by 29 because he didn’t have the talent to make up for that small tick, and he priced himself out.
My point, there is a certain amount of talent you must have in order to actually improve your skill at reading pitches. It’s to fast to think you can just work at it and thats it. I’m not sure Julks, Pena, Dubon have the requisite talent to improve. I think Yainer does, but he is going to need PT, and it won’t be tomorrow (just like it wasn’t a day for Altuve). Individually I like most of them. I like Dubon. He fields, runs, throws, and this year, hits like a major leaguer. I can say the same for Julks. Like most of em. But I don’t like them as a collection. As a collection these good bat to ball guys don’t put pressure because they can’t take a pitchers pitch often enough. They will some, but just not with real frequency. Couple that with a blackhole at the 9 spot and an aging veteran that is the poster child for what age does to your eyes and it’s a disaster.
Unfortunately you aren’t just going to fix that tomorrow. Julks is who you have. So is Dubon, so is Pena, so is Meyers, so is Yainer, and Maldy and Abreu aren’t going anywhere – nor will Dusty move them out of the lineup more often. The saving grace is hope you aren’t 10 games back when you can put Altuve, Brantley and Yordan back in that lineup.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Having one or two free swingers who occasionally connect and make a major impact is the normal state of affairs in the MLB. But having five of them [Julks (or Meyers, or Chaz), Maldonado, Pena, Diaz, and Abreu] in the line-up at the same time – and getting no real help from Altuve/Alvarez (injuries, injuries) or Bregman/Tucker (both of whom are really playing Jekyl and Hyde this year), pretty much has us where we are – looking up at the Angels and Rangers (and just about every other team in the league except the A’s, the Royals, the Rockies, and the Nats.
I’ve already written the playoffs off this year, so I wouldn’t be in a hurry to make any significant trades if I were GM. I’d wait for Gilbert to displace Julks/Meyers, Dirden or Leon to beat out McCormick, Shay Whitcomb to kick Pena to the curb, and Arighetti to beat out either Urquidy, France, or Blanco as a starter. But I suspect Dana Brown will find the need to trade off a Y. Diaz, a Gilbert, and/or an Arighetti to get a rental or two into the stable to watch the playoffs on TV with us.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I was listening to 610 AM on the way into work the last two days and Sean Pendergast has been having fun with an Improvement Plan for Dusty Baker that he came up with – the kind of thing you share with an employee knowing they won’t improve on them and then you can justifiably kick them out without being sued.
He had 5 of these items and I will try my best to repeat them as best as I can remember them – I’m getting old….
1) Only use Montero when the team has a 6 run lead or a 6 run deficit. (Can’t say I disagree)
2) In your post game pressers quit using HIPAA as the excuse for not talking about injuries. If you don’t want to comment just say you are not going to comment. (This one does not bother me that much)
3) Stop using Jose Abreu higher than the 6 spot until he gets his OPS above .675 (I don’t agree and I am sure I will get push back here – but take a look at his numbers in June. His slash is .282 BA/ .300 OBP I know not good/ .782 OPS with 4 HRs and 16 RBIs. I don’t think anyone is near him on RBIs this month. Yes, I saw him ground into a first inning DP – but if that is the standard better bench Yainer Diaz who has grounded into 8 DPs in only 131 ABs – highest rate on the team. They hit the ball pretty hard and don’t have a ton of speed. Until Yordan comes back you have to use Abreu somewhere in the 4 or 5 hole)
4) Play Yainer Diaz almost every day – (They gave him a good grade on this but lets face it – it is not a challenge with Yordan out, because he can use him without sitting Maldy darling. The real test will be what he does when Yordan comes back. Diaz will need more ABs out of playing C and once in a while 1B and DH when Yordan is in left).
5) The heck if I can think of #5 – I will throw it out there when it comes back to me.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Ahhhh
#5 – Make the playoffs – They gave him a thumbs down on this because if the season ended today the Astros would be one game out of the playoffs. Seems kind of silly to grade him now. One game is not an insurmountable gap (well maybe it is the way the Astros have been playing).
LikeLiked by 1 person
Wow, lot’s to consider. First off, I have a confession. I tried to have an intelligent conversation across the way yesterday and actually walked away a bit flummoxed. The topic was stuff+ and pitching +. These are new stats, formulas that claim to determine not only a pitchers future performance but also what he does until the ball reaches the plate. The pitcher is essentially not responsible for what happens with the baseball once the hitter has access to it. And allegedly, Montero is one our best performers based on this concept, and has been to date, which incidentally made its debut just this past March. If any of you guys can help me understand better, please help.
LikeLike
As an engineer with pretty good communication skills – I went and looked up stuff + (Pitching + will be in another comment) and here is what I understand from it.
It is based on rating how well pitches are doing the following:
Pitch Velocity
Vertical Break
Horizontal Break
Arm Angle
Release Extension
(I’ve also seen spin rate in another explanation
These are some nice things that ignore the most important factor from my standpoint and probably the one that is missing with Mr. Montero – Location.
To me you could throw a pitch with the exact same stuff+ in 2023 as you did in 2022 and get mighty different results. You throw a breaking pitch that is a foot off rather than 4″ wide and you don’t get the hitter to go after it. You throw a 97 mph fastball 6″ over the plate rather than right on the corner inside and its deposited in the stands.
So – I think stuff+ only tells you that the guy probably has control issues rather than has a hurt arm.
Or he could be tipping his pitches.
LikeLike
Big smile here Dan, because the stuff+ concept does not include the human factor, other than with the pitcher. If Alvarez was hitting as opposed to Maldonado, it does not matter a whole lot what those pitches are doing when thrown to the worst hitter in the league. Of course the best hitter in the game will produce much different results from the same pitches.
But the smile is all about the possibility of tipping pitches! Stuff+ simply can’t account for that reality.
LikeLike
Dubon best serves this club in the way originally intended. He’s an excellent utility man. He’s not a starter though. And certainly not a leadoff starter. Hopefully we’ll get healthy enough at some point soon to use him correctly. But will Dusty?
Pena is no better than he was in his rookie season. But he’s not had much of a chance to hit second in front of a healthy Alvarez. Will Dusty make this adjustment?
Julks and Jake are not starters. Maybe not Chas either. He’d be excellent at the 4th guy on a team with 3 very good outfielders. He plays all three positions, can pinch run and certainly play late defense for a guy like Alvarez. But he’s the best option on this club right now to play everyday. But Dusty won’t make that adjustment.
LikeLike
Wandering around a little deeper – I found the following:
– A 100 on stuff+ is like average
– There is apparently also a location+ that zeroes in on that component of pitches
– Then pitching + is some kind of weighted hybrid of stuff+ and location +
Unfortunately, I don’t understand how anything could show Montero doing well right now.
But in the “at least we don’t have this guy” ….
The Blue Jays’ Alex Manoah, who the Astros beat up for 6 runs in a third of an inning. He came in third in last year’s AL Cy Young – is awful this year. He has been sent to the Jays’ rookie team and threw 2-2/3 innings giving up 11 runs. Ouch
LikeLike
Dan, I feel much better that a qualified engineer seems a bit flummoxed also.
LikeLiked by 1 person
And the lack of Fundamentals is astonishing at times. Yesterday, on the throw to plate from Tucker to Dubon to Maldy, where was Alvarez??? Why, loitering around the pitchers’ mound of course! When Maldy couldn’t corral the wide throw from Dubon, Alvarez should have been near the plate and beyond the third base line, so he could get the ball and keep the runner at second instead of that runner advancing to third. Valdez has had a number of brain freezes thus far this season.
LikeLike
Sarge – you are using a couple different names there, but I think you are talking about Framber not backing up the play. By the way I would be happy if Alvarez was on the field even if he messed up a fielding play. LOL
LikeLike
Yep, you’re right. I placed Alvarez’s name in place of Valdez. Senior moment.
LikeLike
Maldy is allegedly catching the rookie pitchers so he can “learn” them. Diaz it seems does not need to “learn” any of our pitchers as he’s only catching one of them every ten days or so. I don’t see Dusty changing this program.
If we somehow mount a charge and make our way to the post season, our catcher will be Martin Maldonado. That thought disturbs me. He’s simply not our best chance to win. So as we approach the trade deadline, I don’t want to lose prospects that might well make us a better team in 2024. I said this months ago. I’d rather miss the post season and appreciate all Maldy has done for this club over the past few years with the assurance that he’ll not be back. And certainly I want to see Dusty retire.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Bligh Madris – he of the career BA .171 and career OBP .242 – is in the starting line-up again – this time in LF. Abreu is again at clean-up. Meyers in CF. Talk about asking for trouble!
Can a manager be indicted for treason against his team?
LikeLike