A friend of the blog, Steven, had quite a long comment in our last post and a piece of it was as follows:
“The Astros have to be the luckiest franchise in baseball. An architect came to town in 2011. He drafted pretty well, he went after particular kinds of hitters, and he brought the right pieces around them; 2017 happens, he is fired, and half those pieces leave for greener pastures. What I mean by lucky is all these pitchers start showing up from the international pool and just start winning. And that is what has carried this franchise, Verlander and his staff of international superstars. Luhnow traded for Alvarez. He drafted Tucker, Correa, Bregman, and certain types of guys. We are in the last vestige of that….”
Not that long ago, we had the following post. Five critical items: Astros’ sustainability | CHIPALATTA
The idea was that the Astros were able to put up good to great numbers from 2015 to 2023 by meeting certain sustainability criteria.
But this season feels different, and the question must be asked. Is the inevitable happening? Has the Astros’ time at the top with an unprecedented six consecutive ALCS appearances run its course?
Let’s look at some hallmarks of this year’s team:
Wasted Resources
Having well-paid people underperform or miss time with injuries is not always a death knell. The Astros did well while paying Justin Verlander $66 MM over two seasons with only 6 innings to show for it. But when it starts covering too many different positions, it can start to hamstring a team:
- Jose Abreu ($58.5 MM over three seasons) and Rafael Montero ($34.5 MM over 3 seasons) have been the second-worst regular in the lineup and the single-worst pitcher on the staff, respectively. However, Abreu, despite his terrible hitting, is tied for the second most ABs on the team, and Montero has the second-most appearances in the bullpen.
- Lance McCullers Jr. who is in the second season of a five-year / $85 MM contract – only pitched in 8 regular season games last year and is on the cusp of not pitching in any games this season as he heads back for another MRI.
- Michael Brantley – After getting $16 MM last year to play in the first couple months of the season, Brantley is getting $12 MM this season to cheer the team on in the dugout as his shoulder, so far, has not allowed him to play in the majors.
That is about $60 MM that is tied up in players that are either not able to perform or stinking up the place when they do.
Front Office Turnover
Love him or hate him, Jeff Luhnow was the one solid spot in the front office from his hiring in December 2011 through his firing in January 2020. A number of the top folks under him, including David Stearns, Mike Elias, and Sig Mejdal, went on to top jobs elsewhere, but Luhnow led the team through the fires of the downtimes to the sustained success they have enjoyed through 2022.
He made the big pickups, the draft picks, and the international signings that fueled the Astros’ Renaissance. (This was written about a year and a half before his firing Top 30 Astro moves under GM Jeff Luhnow | CHIPALATTA)
His replacement, James Click, did not even get through three whole years after being in charge when the team played in three ALCS’, two World Series and of course, took home the trophy in 2022. His mark on the team is unsure, as most of the players he drafted or signed internationally have yet to reach the bigs.
His replacement, Dana Brown, was brought in too late to make an impression on the Astros off-season. Instead, some combination of Jim Crane, Jeff Bagwell, Reggie Jackson, and existing assistant GMs Andrew Ball and Charles Cook made the decisions to sign Abreu and re-sign Montero and Brantley, which all look iffy at this point.
Can Brown bring some stability to the situation, or will he be walking gingerly between Jim Crane and Dusty Baker?
Bargain Basement Window is Closing/ Closed
It has not helped the team that they lost their two top draft picks in both 2020 and 2021 to their scandal. At least a couple of those players would be expected to be flying up the minors with a bead on the big leagues by now.
They obviously don’t have the advantage of having some of the top picks in the first round anyway, picks that allowed them to grab Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker. They don’t have the advantage of being first in line on the waiver wire and being able to grab players like Collin McHugh, Will Harris, and Tony Sipp for nothing.
They can still work the International free-agent waters, but it is an area where other teams have caught up with them in looking for cheap talent.
The advantages that helped them get a leg up have gone away as they have become an annual contender.
Techno World
The Astros were cutting-edge in their research and application of technology for baseball. This is unrelated to the scandal. They were out there figuring out spin rates, launch angles, extreme shifts, on-field gathering of data in the minors, and many other things ahead of the curve. But there are more and more pointy heads out there in other organizations. The Astros are no longer alone out on the edge and have had one of their tools – shifting – taken away altogether by the powers that be.
The impression one gets from the promotion of Jeff Bagwell and the hiring of former eyes-on scout Dana Brown is that technology is no longer as important in the organization.
Not Saying Goodbye
One of the things that has kept the team rolling has been their ability to say goodbye to assets when they were becoming too expensive. They also figured out how to fill in behind these assets with the less expensive player(s) who could give them close to what the stars were bringing them (ala Jeremy Pena for Correa).
Knowing when to say goodbye may also extend to non-players. Dusty Baker served his purpose of shepherding the team through the post-scandal period and successfully led them to a World Series win. But perhaps it is time for Dusty to fully retire (he almost seems semi-retired this season) and have Dana Brown bring in a manager with whom he can be more aligned. Also, one who shows a pulse during the game.
The Astros will have more decisions coming up on extensions and/or free-agent signings for their own players – Framber Valdez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman. Will they make those decisions based on values or feelings?
So, where do you stand on this whole situation? Is the inevitable happening? Are the Astros oozing toward mediocrity or worse before our eyes?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
36 responses to “Astros 2023 – Is the Inevitable Happening?”
Wow, lot’s to chew on here. I’ll take it a bit at a time since we’ve all pretty much realized that long posts disappear. And for right now, I’m going to focus on 2023 only.
If Abreu has a solid 9 game homestead and hits in important situations, then I’ll have a bit of optimism that he’ll have recovered, at least somewhat. But he still looks bad to me, swinging in an uncoordinated way, chasing terrible pitches at times. But if he can help us even this year, it will be a small victory.
I don’t think the results from Lances’s MRI will be positive. I don’t expect him back, at least in 2023.
Brantley has not played MLB for a year. At this point, I’d almost rather go with Chas and Jake. MB will put more mobile guys on the bench. He’ll be somewhat of a defensive liability. But if he hits for the next few months, I’ll be happy and wrong.
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I’ve long wondered if the Astros were riding on Luhnow’s coattails, something I suggested in our Q&A back on May 10.
In a related exercise, ESPN ranks the current LSU team as better than six minor league systems altogether. Yes, one of them is the Astros.
But, yes, to your question, I believe there are some leaks in the dam, and it will be a masterful job to fix it all and maintain the run. It’s easier to get to the top of the mountain than to stay there.
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Good to hear from you Chip. It is likely that even if Luhnow was still here they might have been cracks showing in the armor, but there is no doubt that it has been mostly his moves that built this team.
I’m not sure if the crew in the front office are going to get them back on the sustainable track especially if they are not all pulling in the same direction.
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I keep writing and deleting a comment regarding Luhnow and how much credit we’re giving him. Most of his drafts were really awful in hindsight. Signing Charlie Morton and fleecing both the Tigers and Pirates were certainly huge accomplishments, but how many WS could that team have won had he not traded away Josh Hader due to a bruised ego? Regardless, getting Alvarez for Fields may never be topped.
Click’s moves didn’t really work out for Houston, but he was also hamstrung. Brown’s has a chance in the draft to provide a big impact. We don’t have any other material to grade him with thanks to Crane playing GM before hiring one. However, my opinion is the inevitable was a lot of players getting injured. Whether we can overcome that will remain the question. I think there are enough players under contract to expect them to be in contention in 2024 as well, but after that it comes down to what Mr. Brown can do for us.
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We’ll likely never know the full Click story. It’s possible or even probable that Abreu, Montero and Brantley would not have been on the 2023 roster if he was still around. The Maton/Diaz deal for Straw is already a big win but will turn into one of the best of the decade. At this point though, and I’ve wavered on Clicks departure, I think his loss has created some more instability. I say more, because clearly there was instability within management even as the Astros were winning the World Series. And we have more now, with Brown versus Baker. The good news here is that Baker will go home after the 2023 season. That alone will help settle the ship going forward. But I think Dusty has been ultimately bad for the franchise.
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C’mon Daveb – while I can say I’m ready for the team to move on to another, younger manager – there is no way I can say that a guy that took us to a championship, two WS appearances and three ALCS appearances is ultimately bad for the franchise.
But I will concede that he is making or not making moves right now that are not in the longer term best interest of the team.
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Dan, good to have some back and forth discussion, including disagreement. My premise is that Dusty played a role in Clicks departure last year, leading to decisions made this past winter that are impacting the club today in a negative way. And we do know that there is at least one significant Brown/Baker issue, the Diaz versus Maldy problem. I don’t think Dusty wants a GM, unless he’s all in with Dusty and that’s certainly not going to happen. I’m so glad Baker got his World Series win. But with the club he had, it would have been a crime had he not won the title.
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Some speculation on the Astros interest in a left handed bat
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/06/astros-trade-rumors-left-handed-bat-versatile-outfield-first-base.html
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A lot more savvy shoppers at the Bargain Window these days. But, looking down the road a bit, as of 2024, we’ll be very solid at the catchers position. Pena will be more mature. Yordan will be at DH and spend some time in left. Altuve will get extended, playing a bit less second and DHing when Yordan goes to left. We’ll have a solid outfield, with perhaps another left-handed bat. And when Tucker leaves, we’ll have another in-house lefty bat for the outfield. Brown will decide not to pursue Bregman unless it’s a team friendly deal. Dubon will be our full time utility guy next year and hopefully won’t be needed for daily duty. Diaz will allow more rest for Abreu at first, unless somehow Brown figures out away to eat a good part of Abreu’s contract and move him. And we’ve got some intriguing positional talent, especially in Corpus. We’re not done yet, at least offensively.
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What I don’t see is a whole lot of organizational pitching talent, at least at AA and AAA. GoStros1 would likely chastise me and rattle off a batch of talented arms in the lower minors. Help me out!
But I think Framber signs a new deal in Houston. He’s a sensitive guy, has a wonderful supportive group of player/friends and has to be comfortable in Houston. I can’t imagine him on another team. I do think Brown will try and pick up a starter at the deadline with the intent of signing him longer term. Javier is here long term. Hunter will only grow. France might be our back of rotation guy. Garcia come summer? I have not mentioned Lance. And I would guess our GM is already working on his acquisition plan for this winter, building up the bullpen again.
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I’m thinking Lance may end up in the bullpen – though it might get crowded there if we have to put Whitley in there too – lol
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I was thinking the same thought, LMJ to the bull pen. He just doesn’t have the stamina, ability, or health issues to be a starter. I would hope Framber does sign a deal with the club which would give us Framber, Javier, Garcia, Brown, and France or another. The bull pen will need some improvement for ’24 but not an overhaul. Like to unload Montero but don’t think that will happen.
As for the lineup, we have the shortstop, catching and a couple of outfield spots. Hopefully Drew Gilbert will be ready in either 24 or 25. Same for Will Wagner. I don’t follow the Minor legues as much as some do but I’d hope we have some up and coming players that will be ready in ’25. I would think we’d keep Altuve to finish his career here in Houston but not so sure about Bregman as it has been mentioned of a team friendly deal. We have Tucker through ’25 so only a few holes to plug, 1st base being one of them. I would hope if we have a minor league player who needs to get a shot I’d hope that we don’t hold them back because of an aging veteran. Some of the averages and OPS for CC look pretty good but I’m just looking at the numbers. Loperfido and Wagner have been mentioned in previous comments.
It’s been a pretty good run since 2015 but as we know, we need to improve so lets see where we can do that to stay competitive and winners.
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Let me answer one of Dan’s questions first. Do I think the Astros are running the inevitable downhill race to averageism.
No!
I see next year as having this lineup:
Altuve 2b
Pena SS
Alvarez DH
Bregman 3B
Tucker RF
Diaz C
Abreu 1B
Chas McCormick LF
Julks or Leon in CF
Dubon and Korey Lee and another infielder on the bench
I think Brown will chase a FA starting pitcher, will find his new manager and rebuild the bullpen.
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Good morning, been dry here, we’re rationing water on island. This 20 year old house has an almost full 26,000 gallon cistern, so I’m in pretty good shape. The law should require any new home built to include water storage.
1oldpro, how about your 2025 line up? Who’s on third? I think we could see one or two of the lefty bats from Corpus here next year, maybe Loperfido initially.
One thing I’ve noticed looking at the Hooks stats. They’ve got several guys with excellent BB/K ratios. I’d love to see our club get back to working counts and making pitchers sweat more early. That’s my only knock on Frenchy and my main issue with Julks.
I’m hearing more and more talk about allowing teams to use 14 pitchers and 12 non pitchers on the active roster. I hope it happens.
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Dave, I think the Astros will try to keep Altuve and Bregman.
So, with that in mind I will ty a 2025 lineup:
Altuve 2B
Tucker RF
Bregman 3B
Alvarez DH
Diaz C
Loperfido 1B
Pena SS
Leon CF
Gilbert LF
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I had this back and forth with a non-Astros fan on facebook – he insisted the Astros were “winding down” their control of the west. I just said I get that Altuve is the straw that stirs the drink at 32, but this team still has a group of stars like Alvarez, Tucker, Javier, Valdez – some young emerging players that have some star quality like Brown, Pena, and Diaz – they have a base that isn’t going anywhere.
My heartburn has been the details around it. When Correa and Springer and Verlander and Cole were here the pieces around them were better. They went and got Gurriel, Reddick, Brantley, they found the guys that fit. What they are doing now is filling them in with Julks, Meyers, Dubon, guys they just have. They aren’t going and getting anyone. And when they do, it’s Abreu. It’s like Dave just said before I could get to it – these guys aren’t bad, but as a group they just don’t work pitchers. They don’t walk enough, they don’t get pressure on pitchers enough – they do some, just not consistently.
Like, I see Julks work a pitcher, I see him get to some 3 balls counts, but in the end he has 5 walks all year. He isn’t bad, if he played 150 games and hit .260 with 20 HR no one would want to tar and feather him; it’s just he will have a .285 OBP. That’s tough when you get the same type of performance from 4 spots. Pitchers are more relaxed, they aren’t afraid that they have to hit that exact spot to get the hitter out, they can expand a little – and that makes their mistakes fewer. That’s why I was disappointed in Hensley’s ability to consistently put some exit velo on his stuff – because he can work a count with the best of them. He doesn’t expand, pitchers know they have to hit dimes insteads of having 2-3 inches of leeway on both sides. That’s putting pressure on a pitcher.
I feel like when we were GM-less that decisions were made by looking at the back of the baseball card. I am sure there were nerds somewhere in a room watching tape of Abreu, I am sure someone saw the same things in Jul-Sep last year that we see now, but I am not sure that information was relayed in the same manner to Crane that it would have been if his middle management position between him and those nerds were present. So Crane ended up influenced more by the back of the baseball card. So we have ended up with what has arguably been the second worst regular in all of baseball, and when he shares the lineup with the guy that is (not even arguably) the worst offensive regular in baseball, and a bunch of guys that don’t work pitchers, this is not your 2018 Houston Astros. In that regard, I agree with that facebook guy. I just don’t think it’s over. Yordan and Framber and Cristian and Hunter and Jeremy and Yainer all tell me it won’t be.
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As for Luhnow – yes this is still Jeff’s team. He built this. And we are still benefiting from what he wanted to do, the type of players he was looking for. But yes, he also got very lucky. His draft record on pitchers stunk, it’s pretty much Lance and the best after that I think was Folty or Tropeano. Not a great record. But his record on hitters were guys that could work counts and turned into stars. If Correa can stay upright (looking challenging for him) he could be a HOFer.
I am not sure if they saw something in the likes of Valdez, Garcia, Urquidy, Abreu, Javier, or whether they just started signing $50k international guys like crazy and got lucky. Whatever it was, this is his pitching staff. He put those guys there, and despite missing their of the big 6 they still have the best collective ERA in baseball.
Just think about Pressly. Here is a guy they knew was going to be the closer, but they signed him long term when he was still the 8th inning guy behind Osuna. Luhnow knew Pressly was next up – and he got this franchise a premium closer for years at 8th inning guy money. That sucks for Pressly, but it worked out for the Astros. I don’t see anyone doing that with Abreu right now.
I am as tired of Dusty’s lineups as everyone else. But I still appreciate having the guy. He is driving me as crazy as he is apparently driving Dana Brown – I almost think that when Brown decided to recall Salazar to replace Stanek on the roster it was a message as much as anything else – but in the end I am sure Brown also, like me as a fan, appreciates Dusty’s professionalism and upbeatness. I just hope he gets the message lol. We’ll see – who goes when Stanek gets back, will it be Kessinger or Salazar?
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My oldest son went to UT (my second son did too but is not a sports fan) – so I was watching the UT-Stanford game last night to decide who goes to the College World Series and texting on it with him.
Tied – two on – two outs bottom of the ninth – Stanford hitter pops one a mile high into shallow right center. In the twilight – neither outfielder ever picks it up – ball drops and Stanford moves on.
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Gosh, and the game before was a 156 pitch complete game by the Stanford starter.
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Sounds Mark Appelish. Hopefully he won’t get to professional ball throwing 3 MPH slower as well.
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Anybody got any scoop on 2021 5th rounder OF Quincy Hamilton, who has launched 4 HRs in 4 games since his Space Cowboys call up?
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Quincy with a slam tonight.
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Representative of nothing I guess – but here is Jose Abreu’s numbers after 64 games in 2023 and followed by his numbers for the last 64 games of 2022
2023 – .220 BA/ .275 OBP /. 564 OPS / 8 Dbls/ 3 HRs/ 29 RBIs
2022 – .305 BA/ .362 OBP/ .776 OPS/ 15 Dbls/ 4 HRs/ 28 RBIs
So – even though he had much better stats in the last part of 2022, he was not very effective in knocking in runs (perhaps his teammates were much worse about setting the table for him).
A couple stats from 2023 only that surprised me …
With runners in scoring position (67 ABs)- Abreu is hitting a decent .254 BA/ .321 OBP / .753 OPS / 6 Dbls/ 2 HRs/ 27 RBIs
With runners in scoring position and two outs (36 ABs) he is hitting an actually very clutch – .414 BA/ .447 OBP/ 1.142 OPS
This hints strongly that he is really bad with no one on or no one in scoring position.
Concentration???
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If you want to see what Charlie Palillo thinks about Maldonado and Abreu check out his thoughts. They are almost humorous but spot on. He’s on Stone Cold Astros and I believe he has his own show but not sure.
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I don’t know about Abreu, although his splits indicate some improvement. Is it a tease, or the beginning of a recovery?
Looking at stats, splits specifically, has anyone realized Diaz has just 8 home starts in 11 weeks of baseball? Maybe we are trying to hide his talent from the asses.
In 30 plate appearances, he’s hitting .333/.367/.630/.996
I love new kids that love hitting at home. Dan, can you call someone and get him in the lineup?
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“Good morning. Houston Astros’ offices – can I help you?”
“Hi, my name is Dan Peschong. I write a fan blog about the Astros – could you please put me through to Dusty Baker?”
“Sure, hold on a minute”
……………………………………………………………
“Hello, this is Dusty Baker, manager of the World Champion Houston Astros. Who the hell is Dan Passion? Sounds like a darned porn star. You interrupted my morning nap.”
“Sorry Mr. Baker. My name is Dan Peschong. P-E-S-C-H-O-N-G. You see I write a fan blog about the Houston Astros from a local point of view. I’ve never managed above the Little League level, but one of the guys who reads my blog asked me to call you up. He thinks you are a bit of an idiot for not working in Yainer Diaz into the lineup more often especially at home. Would you please stop being a belligerent hard a$$ about this and give the young man the additional at bats? And we think always having that toothpick in your mouth is a bad example for the kids. They might copy you, trip and choke on it.”
A few moments of silence
“CLICK”
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That’s worth the best laugh of the week Dan. But I don’t think Dusty is an idiot. Rather he’s just a stubborn old codger (just 6 years older than me) looking out for his veteran player, knowing quite well that Maldy hits such worse on the road than at home. And Maldy has told him that “if I have to sit, do it in Poughkeepsie”. So of course, he’s giving as many at homes at bats to the .624 home OPS guy as possible, ignoring the new kid with the .996 home OPS.
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Dan Passion! Oh Mr. Passion, we’re ready for you.
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The Dan Passion bit is based on a little reality. Back when I was just starting off as a young engineer – we had what were called 3 Part memos. Basically it was a memo that had a piece of white paper on the front, a piece of carbon paper, followed by a different color paper , followed by a carbon and then a third color paper. The idea was you would write a question on the front – tear off the back page give it to someone who would fill out the answer to the question and tear off the next page and pass it back….
Well someone, who had never seen my name written but only heard it pronounced sent me a three part memo addressed to Dan Passion….. yes it made my day.
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Good to get a win after a day off.
My buddy Diaz went hitless. Does be have to sit for a couple of days?
Ken Rosenthal tweets that MLB intends to curb team spending on tech; staffing limits also discussed. Next on the list, Manfred’s quest for a healthier hotdog.
Six in a row for the Space Cowboys. And the Hooks are just two games under .500. Both teams can hit. Maybe our system is not as bad as the experts seem to think it is.
Today we find out about Lance.
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Diaz played 2 games in a row for only the second time this year. You and I are far more confident in Diaz than Dusty.
I will say this though – I only watched the first at bat. I was asleep by the third inning (I feel like one of you oldies – I’m the young guy in my 50s!). In that at bat he swung at one fastball a full foot out of zone at the letters, one slider that almost hit the plate and a change up that was a good pitch but still out of the zone. Three pitches out of the zone, three swing and misses and a 3 pitch strikeout. The very thing I was complaining about yesterday. By the end of the second inning Corbin looked like the old Corbin from Arizona and not this one that has spent the last 3 years lost in the wood. Apparently, they got around on him later but I was already throwing a no hitter against the Yankees in game 7 of the ALCS, striking out Ruth, Gehrig and Mantle in the 9th inning on 9 pitches (and slobbering on my pillow).
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My post disappeared into cyber space but although I couldn’t watch the game (MLB blackout) It appears that we had a good game. Strong pitching, and some long balls, with a sprinkling of a couple of timely hits. Even Abreu had a couple of hits and an RBI. Even Maldy hit the long ball. It would have been nice if we’d had runners on for the home runs but we’ll take the win anytime. And as a bonus the Rangers lost, again. Hope springs eternal.
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Y Alvarez out for at least four more weeks!
Mr. Crane, you should, seriously, look at the training staff and re-evaluate them based upon the injuries that the team suffers through.
https://www.mlb.com/news/yordan-alvarez-oblique-injury-update
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Well Sarge, seems this oblique issue is becoming more and more common, unless they used to call it something else!
I’m the meantime, Lance is out until well into next year. He had surgery last night.
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LMJ is also out for the remainder of the year after surgery. I’ve been happy the Angels beat the Rangers the last couple nights, but this division is looking far more competitive than I’d expected. I hope Brown can make the right moves over the next month to keep us in contention. It sure would help if Abreu is turning a corner…
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Devin, I can’t believe I expected Abreu to hit the ball with positive results. I actually felt good about his at bats this gm and he has not disappointed so far. Happy to see Diaz hit one tonight. Want to see more of him scattering hits like a few gms back, not chasing. Now if the bottom third of the lineup would put more pressure on opposing pitchers like they are capable of I’ll be happy. With Yordan out 4 weeks or so, guys have to step up.
Is Breggy uppercutting pitches again?
If Dana Brown proves to be effective, there should be no inevitable slide, the inj bug and nominal performances we painfully witness at times notwithstanding
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