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World Series 2021: Surviving Atlanta

The Astros were shut out in Game 3 of the World Series by the Atlanta Braves and wanted to win the next two games to grab the advantage back in the series, but needed at least one win to make the Braves fly to Houston.


Games 4 and 5 were two games that could have gone either way, but in the end, they seemed to go the way the baseball fates intended them. For most of the game, the Astros outplayed the Braves in Game 4 but tempted the baseball fates by violating a basic tenet. When you are winning, and you get ducks on the pond early, drive the suckers home, or you will later wish you had. In Game 5, the Braves had the chance to break the Astros back after grabbing a 4-0 lead in the first inning, but instead of putting a foot to their throats, they allowed the Astros to pull one of those judo moves where the guy on the ground ends up on top of the aggressor in two quick moves.

In Game 4, the Astros scored a run in the first but left seven runners aboard in the first three innings. They scored again in the fourth inning on a solo blast by Jose Altuve, which was the end of their scoring for the night. They carried a 2-0 lead into the sixth, but the Braves pushed one run across that inning and in the seventh. After looking foolish on a couple Cristian Javier sliders, Dansby Swanson turned a fastball around to tie the game and pinch hitter Jorge Soler jacked one just over Yordan Alvarez’s glove to give the Braves a 3-2 lead that they would protect to the end.

In Game 5, things could not have looked more dire. The Astros were down 3-1 in the series and, after a grand slam by Adam Duvall in the first, they were staring at a historical deficit. Only once in World Series history had a team been down 4 runs or more in an elimination game and won. Well, now there are two such teams. Even though he went back to popping the ball up in his later at bats, Alex Bregman’s huge double in the second inning broke the ice for the Astros and allowed them to cut that 4 run lead in half when Martin Maldonado chimed in with his first of three RBIs. The third inning went down the same way as Carlos Correa (moved up in the lineup) knocked in a run with a double, allowing the team to tie the game with a productive out.

Freddie Freeman’s solo shot put the Braves back up in the third inning, but five Astro relievers came in and shut their offense down with 6.1 scoreless innings. The Astros rallied to take the lead with three in the fifth on the backs of a bases-loaded walk to Maldy and a bloop single to left from the struggling veteran Marwin Gonzalez. Maldonado knocked in an insurance run in the seventh, and Correa knocked in a double indemnity run in the eighth, and that was all she wrote. The chanting tribe of Braves’ fans were finally quieted, and the Astros could return to their home field with a shot of taking the title.

So……reasons to like the Braves to take the title at this point.

  • They only have to win one of two. And in reality, that would be one of three if you count the one they lost at home on Sunday night.
  • They have two rested starters ready to go in Game 6 and, if needed, Game 7. Max Fried was one of the best starters in baseball down the stretch. Ian Anderson (no, not the Jethro Tull guy) was almost untouchable in Game 4 of this series.
  • They have been the underdog throughout the playoffs and played like the front runner in disposing of the 95 win Brewers, the 106 win Dodgers and running out to a 3-1 lead against the 95 win Astros.
  • Even though they finished the season at 88-74 and entered the playoffs with the worst record of all those teams, they had gone 36-18 to get into the playoffs and have basically played live or die baseball since the beginning of August.
  • They also have some tough, hard-throwing hombres coming out of the bullpen and can hold the rope at the end of the game with A.J. Minter, Luke Jackson, Tyler Matzek and Will Smith (no, not MIB Will Smith).

Reasons the Astros can win this….

  • They’ve been here before. Recently. And a lot. They know how to play in the big games, and they know what it takes to win in the big games.
  • That lineup can be a load, especially at home. And the shakeup Dusty Baker made in moving Correa and others up, and Bregman down seemed to really give them a boost. The thing is, they are winning even when Yordan Alvarez isn’t hitting. They have so much depth with Altuve, Michael Brantley, Correa, Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel, Kyle Tucker, and Bregman (and yes Martin Maldonado occasionally) that they wear down pitchers when they are feeling it. It will also help to not play in 50-degree rain.
  • Luis Garcia and his dimples. OK, they don’t help him pitch, but they are a wonder to behold after he has successfully helped the team.
  • I can’t believe I am typing this, but their bullpen, which at one time caused fans to flinch, has put up terrific numbers for this team, and they would be home (real home) right now if not for the bullpen. Whether it has been Yimi Garcia, Brooks Raley, Blake Taylor, Phil Maton, Cristian Javier, Ryne Stanek, Kendall Gravemen or Ryan Pressly, they have all had critical moments in these playoffs.
  • X factors – whether it is Zack Greinke pinch-hitting or Jake Odorizzi coming into tandem win a game – they have a lot of people who can contribute in a lot of ways.
  • Oh, and did I say they have been here before. Oh, yeah, I did.  

So, lay back and root for your Astros. They have a great chance to win it all by Wednesday night.

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78 responses to “World Series 2021: Surviving Atlanta”

  1. Gordon Lightfoot came by today, picked up his guitar, and started singing this song:

    The legend lives on from the Woodlands on down
    to Herman Park, and from Baytown to Friendswood.
    The draft picks that came when Bidge and Bags quit the game
    made folks wonder how the ‘Lastros’ got THIS good!
    With CFM joining forces with our bunch of young horses
    we proved more than the Dodgers could handle.
    But then in Twenty-nineteen Fiers played drama queen
    and our trophy got tarnished by scandal!

    Altuve and the boys had to play through lots of noise,
    and deal with chants, threats, and profane suggestions;
    And though all teams stole signs it was us that got the fines,
    and we weren’t supposed to ask any questions.
    Crane fired A.J. Hinch and let Luhnow get lynched,
    and we lost 2 years-worth of top draft picks;
    But our guys never quit, they all proved they could hit
    dodging insults and trash cans of plastic.

    So Jose’, roll on! Mike, swing that baton!
    and Captain and Yordan, do some mashin’!
    Alex B., chip right in! Yuli play the king-pin!
    And KTuck and Chaz, show your passion!
    Machete’, take control! Keeps our minds on the goal!
    Keep Luis in charge of the scenario;
    And later tonight, under the Minute Maid lights,
    beat the heck out of Fried and Rosario.

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  2. The lineup tonight

    Jose Altuve 2B
    Michael Brantley LF
    Carlos Correa SS
    Yordan Alvarez DH
    Yuli Gurriel 1B
    Kyle Tucker RF
    Alex Bregman 3B
    Jose Siri CF
    Martin Maldonado C

    Luis Garcia on the mound

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  6. I don’t want to jinx the Astros, but for years Baggie has talked about “situational” hitting. First inning, we had three in a row attempting to hit a 3 run homer. I would take 1 run in the first as a HUGE win.

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  13. The 2021 baseball season ended tonight and the 2022 baseball season begins tomorrow. I am ready to talk about 2022 tomorrow.
    Thank you, Astros, for a lot of entertainment and thrilling moments in the last seven months. Enjoy your vacations.

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  14. I turned off the television before they showed the Braves celebration, I didn’t want to see the look on our guys faces. The game was pretty much over after Soler hit that homerun off Garcia, shame because we all had hoped the Astros would pull off another miracle. Soo let the trade talks begin!

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  15. The team playing better baseball in November are the World Champions. They made that clear. No need to go through the details at this point. Our guys played late into fall for the 5th year in a row. And I think we’ll be playing post season baseball in 2022. 1OP, I’m also already looking forward to a significant redesign of our club starting almost immediately.

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  17. We’ll be back. Just need a bit more starting pitching. Congratulations to the Atlanta Braves – well done!

    Thank you, Houston Astros, for the amazing roller coaster ride we now call ‘last year’.

    Dan – and every member of this crazy Chipalatta gang – win or lose, you are still the best!

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  18. I know I will disappoint people, who want to immediately look forward but there will be a WS post – I think we have to look at where we have been to know where we need to go. There will also be a ChippalattAwards for the year too. But there will be many more posts looking forward too. A lot of days to fill between now and next April.

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  19. Dan, I’m sorry, but the league isn’t waiting for you. As of this morning:
    Carlos Correa
    Marwin Gonzalez
    Kendall Graveman
    Brooks Raley
    Yimi Garcia
    Justin Verlander
    Zack Greinke
    are free agents.

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    • My intent is to write a WS wrap up today – maybe post today – maybe tomorrow and then write a free agent post before the qualifying offer deadline on the 7th. Yes, those folks are FAs and will likely be FAs for a while.

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    • 1OP, I’m allowed to comment based on your post.

      I’m convinced we’ll be getting a new SS that will not require more than 5 years or so. We might even wait until late and hope one of the several guys available does not get the deal desired and will take 1 or 2 years as a bridge to a long term deal somewhere else.

      I want to keep Graveman. He showed some guts late. Yimi maybe. But other than that, I don’t see any of those guys coming back unless Grienke wants to take significantly less than what he can get somewhere else.

      I also want another power hitting defensively capable outfielder. Why? I think Brantley, as much as we like him, will continue to regress. I don’t really feel Siri. And if Dusty comes back, I don’t think he feels McCormick. Chas might have to go somewhere else to show that he can play everyday.

      Other than that, pitching, pitching, pitching.

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      • Hard for Brantley to keep fresh legs with Yordan on the roster. His exit velocity month by month was declining, and by the end of the season it fell off a cliff. I don’t know how he avoided setting a career high in GDP, but I feel like if he is the 2 hole this next year he will eclipse 20+ – a perfect recipe – an aging, declining player that still makes a ton of contact but most of that is becoming soft contact. Best way to negate a leadoff hitter with a 350 OBP is put a guy behind him that will hit into 20+ double plays – though Altuve as a leadoff hitter means not as much stopping at 1st.

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    • It should be fun. Here is to the “what we think they will do” vs. “what we think they should do” vs. what actually happens debates begin! At least we aren’t arguing Marisnick vs. Grossman anymore!

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  20. *I was so impressed with the way Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek and Ryan Pressly pitched throughout the playoffs. They got people out and held up like champions.
    * The two home runs the Astros got from their leadoff hitter were their only home runs in the WS. The way Atlanta shut down the Astros power was the difference in the WS.

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  21. In my mind, the WS was lost when McCullers came up lame. We just didn’t have an ace – and were always starting off with a mismatch. In other words, CFM is much better than Framber; Anderson (maybe the best starting pitcher in baseball?) is much better than Urquidy; Fried is much better than Garcia; and young Kyle Wright is at least evenly matched with the 2021 version of Zack Greinke (except when swinging a bat).

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    • Good points Mr. Bill, although they did lose Charlie Morton, pretty much a wash with LMJ. They just had much better pitching overall. Heck, two shutouts against what was supposed to be the most feared offense in MLB?

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      • True enough, Dan. But the difference as I see it is that Charlie started a game – the tone-setting first game – and gave the Braves 2.1 scoreless innings of 1 hit, 3 K ball to kick off the Series, while LMJ wasn’t even on our roster.

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  22. The Braves proved that pitching beats hitting most of the time. The Astros were, especially with McCullers in the first round, on close enough ground with both Sox, but outmatched by Atlanta’s mound army. Here is hoping that is issue 1 addressed in the offseason. Let the Hot Stove begin!

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  23. I thought one BIG difference is their bullpen came in and threw strikes. Ours didn’t. Got behind in the count, didn’t have the “out pitch” and eventually had to get into the hitting zone. The 3 run home runs had a walk before them. Their hitters don’t scare you, but they can sure beat you.

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  24. No complaints.
    We are the AL champions once again. We had an extra month of watching our team when most baseball fans were looking at next season.
    Could have won with our full pitching staff.
    Just wish Dusty could have gotten a championship as manager.

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    • It would have been nice to get that WS victory for Dusty. I have been critical of his management decisions this year as a rule but I thought he did a good job during the playoffs. Considering that his pitching staff was short LMJ and the others could not measure up to Atlanta’s staff, along with a couple of missing fielders, I was surprised at how he handled it. I do think we know what our needs are for next year so let’s see what happens on the off season.

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  25. Assuming no other offensive additions [Jeremy Pena in place of a departing Correa?], I am curious what other people think about the lead-off position next year. Astros with a better OBP than Jose Altuve in regular season include:
    1. Gurriel [who probably doesn’t have the wheels anymore to lead-off];
    2. Brantley [who definitely doesn’t have the wheels anymore to lead-off];
    3. Tucker [who would be my choice to lead off]; and
    4. Bregman [who’d have to get fully healthy before I’d trust him to lead-off.

    If you add in Correa to the group of ‘guys-who-had-higher-OBPs-than-our-lead-off-guy’, you discover that Jose provided only our sixth-highest OBP on the team [not counting Castro, who is a back-up catcher] . Unless something changes with Altuve’s approach in ST 2022, I think I would move Tucker to lead-off, move Altuve to 2nd and Brantley to 3rd; put Gurriel at #4 and Alvarez at #5; move Bregman to #6; slot in SS [Correa or Pena] at 7th; put Meyers/McCormick at 8th [Siri would never be in my line-up at all except in injury emergencies]; and round it out with our catcher [unless Korey Lee comes up and starts hitting like Johnny Bench, Gary Carter, or Mike Piazza].

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    • Click is in a tough spot regarding SS. He could decide that Pena is ready to be the guy, retain Diaz, and then hope that between the two of them we can get 150 games at SS. He could sign someone disposable as a stop gap. He could make Correa a better offer than most other teams…which is probably not the prudent thing to do but many Houston fans would encourage it. If I’m him, I’m probably telling Bregman not to come into spring training as bulky and be ready to potentially play 50 games at SS.

      For leadoff, I’d also tell Bregman to plan to come to camp ready to compete for the leadoff spot. Quite frankly, the only real difference between him and Altuve in 2021 was that Altuve stayed healthier. If you look at the contribution of BB and HBP to their OBP they were virtually identical in 2021, but historically Bregman has been better. With Altuve trending towards more K and fly balls and fewer ground balls, I don’t think leadoff is a good fit. Bregman likes to see a lot of pitches.

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    • It just about had to have an effect, AC. Siri was a loud cheerleader, but he had neither a track record of excellence nor any history of working in the trenches with the guys that matter that were necessary to back it up. I suspect the big guys rolled their eyes, spit, scratched and walked away every time Siri tried to fire them up. Then again, nobody was going to beat the Braves this postseason.

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  27. This goes back up there someplace under DaveB’s comment. A. Do we find the actions of Siri distasteful because we once had Carlos Gomez?
    B. If we do find his actions distasteful, at least in the minors, both he and Pedro Leon were “flamboyant” risk takers and exciting.
    C. As to future value, it is hard for me to see a lot of difference in Siri, ChasMc, or Meyers. They are each different players with similar results. I think Siri is the most likely one to be very streaky.
    D. And finally, with Yordan and Tucker + the above, going forward, I do not worry about our outfield right now.

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    • Good questions 45. I think Siri is weak at the plate. If he hits 30 homers and gives us an .800 plus OPS and shakes things up on the bases, I’ll take his theatrics. I think he’s defensively pretty good. It’s hard to know what we’ve got in Chas, Siri or Meyers at this point though. Still pretty small samples. But I do think Chas got the hook pretty quickly, never really getting a chance to play everyday once Straw left. Maybe the experts already see what I don’t. I think he’s got a pretty long swing, but can that be corrected? And he did give us 14 homers and 50 RBI’s and a 2.3 WAR in half a season of at bats. Chas and Jake put up very similar stats, but Jake did cool late. Tucker is one of the best outfielders in the league. Alvarez will always be somewhat of a liability out there. The three young guys, I don’t know. That’s why I want a proven addition out there.

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      • Chas had 320 PA and struck out 104 times. On balls he put into play he had about a 15% higher fly ball rate than the average major leaguer. In terms of performance, he got off to a rough start, but improved a bit once we got to July. To me he clearly looks like a good player with areas that need major improvement to stay on the roster. His contact rates in the minors were never bad. Making an adjustment to situationally try for more line drive contact and fewer fly balls would go a long way towards improving his value and keeping him in the lineup.

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  28. I won’t judge Meyers or McCormick too harshly after their first attempts at hitting major league pitching.
    The reason I won’t is because I saw Kyle Tucker during his first couple of tries and realize that very few players just waltz in and are instantly good.

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      • There are some DFA candidates, at least from my perspective.
        Scrubb, Martinez, one of Abreu or Paredes, Nova, Solis, Emanuel. Depending on where they think Montero is in his rehab, they might non-tender him.
        Considering they have Meyers, McCormick and Siri, they might try to trade one of them.

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  32. Here’s my question today. Assuming Correa and his bat is gone, Yuli won’t win another batting title, Brantley is in decline and Maldy is Maldy, how do we replace that lost offense?

    I think of one place and that’s Bregman, but that’s still an iffy proposition I think. We really can’t assume that any of the existing group will hit more, can we?

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    • I’m more worried about replacing Correa’s defense. In terms of his offense, the big question is how much of a drop-off we get from his replacement. Correa performed much better in games we won than in games we lost. Looking back a lot of his big games came in blowouts, but he was pretty solid in close games as well. I think the key for Houston’s offense not regressing (much) is for Altuve and Bregman to get on base better and for the catcher to provide more than Maldonado did in 2021. I do realize that’s not something we should expect given the contracts for both him and Castro. Regardless, unless Anaheim gets everyone healthy and decides to spend on some arms our division is ripe for the taking. We’ve lost two World Series because hitters that just about every team in the league passed on got hot and hit meaningful HR against us. I don’t think we need to have the best hitting team for the year…just the one that gets hot at the right time.

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    • One of the ways to add offense to replace Correa’s is by moving Tucker up to the 2-slot and moving Brantley down to the 6-slot. That gets Tucker more ABs and also more RBI chances on his HRs.
      More production from Bregman adds.
      Pena at SS might produce more at the #8 slot.
      One of the new outfielders improving at the plate will increase productivity over what Straw gave us up to the deadline.
      Not having the worst hitting catcher in baseball would give us a lift.
      But, most of all, better pitching means we don’t need to score the most runs in baseball to get to the World Series. We could just limit the other teams’ scoring to win as many, or more, games.

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      • Dusty doesn’t work that way. You think Brantley needs to be out of the 2 spot, I think he does, Dusty don’t care what we think. He also likes to flip flop the lefty righty setup – so I expect Gurriel to move from the 7 spot to the 5 spot, someone like Duffy signed to replace Correa and take the 7 spot, Maldonado resigned and another revolving door in CF between McCormick, Siri, and Meyers, three players that will probably yield similar results but the Astros have to be hoping one of them grabs the proverbial bull by the horns.

        I would actually be down with a return of the offense mostly intact with a decent contact guy like Duffy manning 3rd with pretty good D, shifting Bregman, and lose a touch of offense – if the money saved from the loss of contracts of Verlander/Greinke/Correa equals adding a potential staff ace like Rodon – the guy I think we all agreed even at the time should have been drafted over Aiken. Of course I think most of us agree that Rodon’s contract shouldn’t be touched unless it comes with some Lloyds of London action, but I can see a 5 year 110 million heavily insured contract being enough. Can you imagine if Verlander does accept the QO – Verlander, Rodon, McCullers, Valdez, Garcia rotation? Even comes with a Odorizzi/Urquidy depth chart for what could be the best but most injury prone rotation around.

        That said Verlander and Greinke are currently off the books. If Verlander doesn’t accept a QO I don’t think the Astros are where he wants to be, so I don’t expect him back. That’s 67 million off the books. Why not give Correa his money? Never mind, its the Astros we are talking about.

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    • Bregman is an interesting puzzle. If you look at video of his batting going all the way back to LSU you see a direct to the ball, simple hitting style. These past two years, he has been about 1/2 a bat width under the ball. It looks like a simple correction but it is apparently very difficult. Also, he has my permission to bring back his childish antics if his hitting comes back.

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  33. A quick joke…

    What was the difference between hotdogs sold at Yankees Stadium and Dodgers Stadium and Minute Maid Park?

    They were sold at Minute Maid Park in November!!

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  34. I was going to talk about pitching next! I agree that most of what we do this winter has to be about solidifying the rotation and the pen. If we can do that, maybe we can get away with a bit less offense.

    Maybe. But Yuli, Brantley and Maldy are pretty old. Bregman might be an old 28 next year, although I sure hope a brand new training approach gives us back the guy we once had. I’d like to see more from Pena before he’s annointed. Too small a sample. And I don’t think Bregman is moble enough for short. We’ll never replace Correa defensively, but I’d rather rush Pena into the job than see Alex there. I don’t think either option is the correct one to open a new season though.

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  35. Just a note about the hole Carlos Correa would leave offensively:
    1. He led the team in games played [148] last year;
    2. He was 2nd on the team in RBIs last year [92];
    3. He was 2nd on the team in Runs Scored last year [104];
    4. He was 4th on the team in extra base hits [61];
    5. He was 3rd on the team in OPS [.850];
    6. He led the team in base on balls [75][nearest to him = Gurriel [59];
    7. He was 3rd on the team in BA.

    That would be a lot to replace, folks. And we haven’t even mentioned defense or the intangible ‘leadership’ factor. I don’t know if we can sign him or not, but if he leaves we are going to feel it big time!

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  36. MEYERS OR MCCORMICK

    Based on last year’s ‘rookie’ season stats for Meyers and McCormick, I have to give Meyers the edge. He played in less than half the games McCormick did, but drove in only 5 less runs and scored only 3 less. His BA and OBP were slightly higher. His K ratio was significantly better.

    While both were a pleasant surprise as fill-ins, we can probably only keep one of them long term. Assuming his shoulder heals okay, I’d go with Meyers.

    Question: Can we expect Taylor Jones to take some of the physical load off of Gurriel next year [letting Gurriel either sit or be DH?]. He’s 27 and he’s got nothing left to prove in AAA.

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    • Mr. Bill, both guys did a good job.
      But, Chas had 50 RBI’s, Jake 28. Chas had 47 runs, Jake 22. Both had a 107 OPS+. OBP, BA, slugging, OPS, just about the same. Remarkably similar. Both played pretty good defense too, especially for a couple of rookies in centerfield. They helped the club significantly. But I’d say that it’s too early to determine which guy might be better in the long run. Maybe both guys eventually force themselves into leftfield and centerfield. Wouldn’t that be great.

      One more thing. Michael Brantley had a .728 OPS post the All Star break. 47 RBI’s on the season. A 2.5 WAR overall. Will he rebound? Will Chas and Jake put up better numbers?

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  38. Watching a short video on “Point Blank” and it appears that Dusty will get another year as the manager. The question is how to keep Joe Espada the heir apparent to the position. The team did pick up Yuli’s option so he’ll be around for another year. As for CC, I suspect he’ll be elsewhere next year (north of the Mason Dixon line) if that means any thing. I’m sure that Dan will have some tasty tidbits for us to chew on in the upcoming week so I and others eagerly await with immense “Anticipation”. Kind of like Carly Simon’s song.

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  39. Watching Strom talk about not coming back next year made me sad, you could see he had been crying….broke my heart. The odd comment was that he might find another club to sign with, but he was definitely NOT staying with the Astros. Was there a problem with Dusty or Click….odd statement to make.

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  40. Good morning!

    The original blue print for 2021 envisioned a deep late season run that would have included a healthy Justin Verlander and Grienke and McCullers and a veteran pen guy in Baez. So many adjustments had to be made beginning with the Verlander injury in the rotten summer of 2020. And yet this club, with little wiggle room from a payroll standpoint still gave us November baseball. That’s impressive.

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  41. This Sunday afternoon at 4pm is the deadline for teams to issue a qualifying order to free agent players. Correa and Verlander are widely believed to get QOs from Houston.
    Linked to this date is that players have until the 17th of November to accept or reject the QO.
    This coming Monday is when free agency officially opens and it is the opening of GM meetings/gatherings.
    It is important to remember that players who want huge money contracts will probably have to wait until a CBA is agreed on to get that money because teams with large payrolls will want to know what the Luxury Tax lines and penalties are before they commit.
    The exceptions to this will be teams that are coming out of a rebuild with big amounts of room under the luxury tax and may want to jump ahead of other teams who are waiting, to get the stud ballplayer they crave.
    Other teams, such as the Dodgers, who don’t care about penalties might also jump ahead to beat out other teams to get their guy or guys.
    I’m expecting that there will be a bunch of trades at the GM meetings because of the uncertainty surrounding free agency and the CBA.
    I would not be surprised to see the Yankees make a bunch of moves with their arbitration eligible players.

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  42. Just letting y’all know I am still here – buried with work – but will spring free soon. I will put out a post later today (perhaps much later today) on the Astros free agents and qualifying offers predictions etc.

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