Head to head playoffs: Astros vs. Red Sox

The Astros finally get to play in prime time, now that THE CURRENT WORLD CHAMPIONS have moved past the Cleveland Indians in the ALDS, and that brings to mind in a demented way a famous line from a movie. It is the end of Billy Wilder’s brilliant send-up of Hollywood, “Sunset Boulevard” and Gloria Swanson (who once was a great silent star and the mistress of Joseph Kennedy – JFK’s father – but I digress) playing Norma Desmond, a long time ago great silent star and recent murderer, comes sweeping down the stairs and says “All right, Mr. DeMille, I’m ready for my close-up.”

This Astros’ team is way ready for their close-up and if Alex Bregman‘s musings on the subject, have a bit of a chip on their shoulders after having given the baseball world one of the great World Series performances ever and being thanked by being given a seat at the kid’s table at Thanksgiving.

The Astros’ dismantling sweep of the Tribe was so complete that Cleveland immediately announced they are removing Chief Wahoo from their uniforms and replacing it with a Block C. Well, that announcement might not have been connected, but you get the idea.

Now the Ready for Prime Time Players head to Boston for the first two games of an ALCS series they hope leads to a second consecutive appearance in the World Series. So what type of opponent are the Red Sox? Well, they won 108 wins as compared to the Astros 103 wins. In the Pythagorean world that looks at run differential, the Astros should have won 109 games and the Red Sox should have won 103 games, for whatever that is worth.

The Bosox’s 2018 offense looked an awful lot like the Astros’ 2017 offense. They led the majors in runs scored (876), BA (.268), OBP (.339), SLG (.453) and OPS (.792), while being 5th best at avoiding strikeouts. Their starting staff had a good, not great 3.77 ERA (8th best in the majors, 4th best in the AL) at more than a half run behind the Astros’ major league’s best 3.16 ERA. Eerily similar, their bullpen had a good, not great 3.72 ERA (tied for 8th best in the majors, 4th best in the AL) and almost 3/4 of a run behind the major league-leading Astros (3.03 ERA). So, will the Red Sox offensive strength break through the Astros’ pitching strength? Can the Astros’ inconsistent offensive find some holes in the good, not great Red Sox pitching staff?

So, on a position basis how do these two teams matchup heading into their playoff matchup?

Starting Pitching
The Red Sox ace Chris Sale (12-4, 2.11 ERA, 13.5 K/9 IP) is as good or better than anyone the Astros can throw against him or in this case Justin Verlander (16-9, 2.52 ERA). After that…the Astros should have a marked advantage at each spot and they did have success against Sale last October. David Price is in the 2nd spot. He is solid (16-7, 3.58 ERA) and has had a good history against the Astros, but he is not as good as Gerrit Cole (15-5, 2.88 ERA). Rick Porcello again has had a season where his won-loss does not match his ERA (17-7, 4.28 ERA). Dallas Keuchel (12-11, 3.74 ERA) is better than Porcello. Nathan Eovaldi is good (3-3, 3.33 ERA) or at least good with producing the number 3, but Charlie Morton (15-3, 3.13 ERA) is better.

The Red Sox have a good starting staff, but the Astros just beat a better staff with Cleveland.

SP’s – Astros Advantage

Relief Pitching 

Craig Kimbrel (5-1, 42 saves, 2,74 ERA) is one of the top closers in the game, but as everyone saw Tuesday night, looked a whole lot like Ken Giles in trying to close out the Yankees. After him their bullpen consists of very good Ryan Brasier (2-0, 1.60 ERA), good Brandon Workman (6-1, 3.27 ERA) and Matt Barnes (6-4, 3.65 ERA, 14 K/9 IP) and very average Heath Hembree (4-1, 4.20 ERA) and Joe Kelly (4-2, 4.39 ERA) and starter Eduardo Rodriguez (13-5, 3.82 ERA) who may or may not take the 4th starting spot away from Eovaldi.  The Astros have the deepest bullpen they have ever had with closer Roberto Osuna (2-2, 1.99 ERA, 12 saves), set-up man Ryan Pressly (1-0, 0.77 ERA, 0.600 WHIP), Collin McHugh (6-2, 1.99 ERA, 0.912 WHIP), Tony Sipp (3-1, 1.86 ERA), former starter Lance McCullers Jr. (10-6, 3.86 ERA) and likely Will Harris and Josh James. Note – we are guessing at the end of the bullpen for both clubs at this point. 

The Astros are better man for man than the Red Sox bullpen…..on paper. And they looked better in the ALDS.

SP’s – Astros Advantage

Infield and Catcher 

SS Xander Bogaerts (.288 BA, .883 OPS, 23 HR and 103 RBIs) has been one of the best shortstops in the league, but basically the Sox normal infield configuration of Bogaerts, 1B Mitch Moreland (.245 BA, .758 OPS, 15 HR, 68 RBIs), 2B Ian Kinsler (17 games – .242 BA, .604 OPS, 1 HR, 16 RBIs) and 3B Rafael Devers (.240 BA, .731 OPS, 21 HRs, 66 RBIs) is a step below the Astros. Throw in poor hitting C Sandy Leon (.177 BA, .511 OPS, 5 HR, 22 RBIs) or Christian Vazquez (.207 BA, .540 OPS, 3 HR, 16 RBIs) and the step is even bigger.

The Astros, on the other hand, have Jose Altuve (.316 BA, 13 HR, 61 RBI), Carlos Correa (.239 BA, 15 HR and 65 RBI), Yuli Gurriel (.291 BA, 33 doubles, 85 RBIs) and Alex Bregman (105 runs, 51 doubles, 31 HRs, 103 RBIs) on the infield with Martin Maldonado (.225 BA, .627 OPS, 9 HR and 44 RBIs), behind the plate.

Infield/Catcher – Advantage Astros

Outfield and DH

This is the category where the Red Sox are running the Astros out of the park. MVP candidate OF Mookie Betts (.346 BA, 1.078 OPS, 129 runs, 32 HRs, 30 SBs), Andrew Benitendi (.290 BA, .830 OPS, 16 HRs, 87 RBIs, 21 SBs), Jackie Bradley Jr. (.234 BA, .717 OPS, 13 HRs, 59 RBIs) and super DH J.D. Martinez (.330 BA, 1.031 OPS, 111 runs, 43 HRs, 130 RBIs) are a force to be reckoned with.

For the Astros, the plus side is that with a recent resurgence, the OFs and DHs are outperforming their numbers for the season.  Marwin Gonzalez (.247 BA/.733 OPS/ 16 HRs/68 RBIs), George Springer (.265 BA/.780 OPS/ 102 runs/22 HRs/ 71 RBIs), Josh Reddick (.247 BA/.718 OPS/17 HRs/47 RBIs) and Tyler White (.276 BA/ .888 OPS/ 12 HRs/ 42 RBIs) are a good group, but….. not up to the Red Sox.
OF and DH – Advantage Red Sox

Bench
The Red Sox give their bench players a lot of chances to play. They are a solid group, led by Steve Pearce (50 Games – .279 BA, .901 OPS, 7 HRs, 26 RBIs), Eduardo Nunez (.265 BA, .677 OPS, 10 HR, 44 RBIs), Brock Holt (.277 BA, .774 OPS, 7 HRs, 46 RBIs), and Blake Swihart (.229 BA, .613 OPS, 3 HRs, 18 RBIs) along with whichever catcher is sitting.

The Astros counter with Brian McCann (.212 BA/ .640 OPS/ 7 HR/ 23 RBIs), Evan Gattis (.226 BA/ .736 OPS/ 25 HR/ 78 RBIs), Jake Marisnick (.211 BA/ .674 OPS/ 10 HRs/ 28 RBIs), Tony Kemp (.263 BA/ .743 OPS/ 6 HRs/ 30 RBIs/ 9 SB) and Myles Straw (In 9 games – .333 BA/ 1.067 OPS/ 4 runs/ 1 HR/ 1 RBI/ 2 SBs).
This one is really close.
Bench – Slight Advantage Red Sox

Summing it up… To win the Red Sox need to derail the Verlander – Cole – Keuchel – Morton – Osuna – Pressly – McHugh – McCullers express while hoping the Astros’ bats go silent against a lesser pitching staff than the Indians had. Are you betting on that? Me neither.

Astros in 6 games

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133 responses to “Head to head playoffs: Astros vs. Red Sox”

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  1. A pretty good assessment. Can’t argue with the conclusion. The Red Sox are the best hitting team in baseball and they are facing the best pitching staff in baseball.
    The Astros lineup is feared because of 2017. If the Astros can hit like they did against Cleveland(which was like the 2017 Astros hit), that will be the difference in this series. If the Astros hit like they did in 2018, it’s a toss up.

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  2. There is more pressure on one guy than any of the other 49. The Astros have gotten inside of Chris Sale’s head previously. If our guys come out and beat him for the 4th straight time on Saturday night, it would be a huge blow; to Sale, to Alex Cora and his plans, to Red Sox Nation.

    If he has a good outing and his bullpen can hold on and the Sox get a win, then a real battle is underway. Of course everyone says the first game is huge, but in this situation, it really is. If Sale fails, the lack of Red Sox pitching depth is immediately tested.

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  3. old pro – Yes, in my mind if this team can hit anywhere close to 2018, they will be an extremely tough out with their improved pitching.

    daveb – Great point about the focus on Chris Sale and how he could be the real pivot point for the series. I feel like the bullpen is similar in that it is Kimbrel and lesser parts. I hope that Alex Bregman still has his big hit swing ready for Sale…..

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  4. -This is not to oppose your theory, dave, of Sale having the most pressure on him. It is my belief that starting Price in game 2 is Cora’s first move at being a former Astros insider. He thinks Price will handle the Astros based on what he saw in last year’s playoffs. Price is Cora’s first move in his chess game.
    -If Springer, Altuve, Bregman, Gurriel, Marwin, Correa, White, Reddick and Maldanado are the players they were throughout the year, then the Red Sox are in for some trouble. Tyler White does not have to match JD Martinez. He will be highly effective if he is just the Tyler White we saw in the regular season.
    -Saturday evening seems like it will take forever to get here. How can a guy take so much medication for pain and still have trouble sleeping? OK, on to the chiropractor! First, though, some excercises, right, Sandy? I’m trying to be a good boy.

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    • Yes 1OP, the Price move is especially interesting, as it seems from looking at the Boston blogs over last couple of days, the Fenway faithful are scared to death of Price right now.

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  6. The Angel Hernandez / Joe West thing is interesting in that Hernandez sued the mlb about being left off playoff assignments among other things and then found his way into the playoff rotation the last two seasons for some reason….
    Hernandez is and always has been a bad umpire. He often blows calls, but I’ve never felt he was vindictive, just error prone – your risk was he would call a bad one against you. Some of that gets taken care of by replay, but of course it does not help when he blows ball – strike calls.
    Maybe West has threatened them with age discrimination or something or maybe he is there because of seniority. He is a bit more dangerous an umpire because he can get on a roll against one team or the other. He is a bad ball and strike ump with a zone that can expand to ridiculous size sometimes. You have more of a chance you might end up on the wrong side of him and have him hurt you for a whole series.
    Ump assignments in the playoffs should be rewards for good work during the season – not tied to legal action or seniority.

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    • I did not watch the playoff game in question (the 3rd game of the Yanks/Bosox series) but they challenged 4!!!! of Hernandez’s calls at first base and reversed 3!!!!

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    • absolutely agree dan. the NFL uses how the officials grade out for playoff/super bowl assignments. MLB should be the same way. the silver lining is that we do have replay now.

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      • Yeah I’m waiting for when an important playoff game is decided by a strike call a foot outside that is not reviewable. That is Joe West’s forte since he can’t get himself in position to see both sides of the plate.

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      • yeah unfortunately we cant correct bad ball and strike calls but MLB could filter out the guys that during the season had the most of those if they just would.

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  7. Interesting factoid…..
    Between 1962 and 2016 – the Astros had been in the playoffs 10 times. If we ignore their Wild card play in win against the Yanks in their history they had won 3 playoff series, the 2004 NLDS and the 2005 NLDS and NLCS.

    In 2017 and 2018 they have won 4 playoff series – so far…..

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  8. Didi Gregorius is going to have TJ Surgery. There is a lot to talk about in regards to how the Yankees go from here in regards to the SS position.

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  11. wow. its easy to see why hinch wanted another arm. games sat and sun, a day off, games tues, wed, thurs, day off, games sat, sun. thats 5 games in six days and 7 games in nine days. thats alot of games in a rapid pace, arms could get tired. that would tend to favor us since our bullpen is better rated and deeper talent wise.

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  12. Saw where the Yankees are trying to trade Sonny Grey. What a crappy move.
    I could see him coming to a team like the Astros and let Strom work his magic on him. The Yankees went out and traded for a TON of guys last July, and STILL lost out on the post season. Goes to show you “life is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re gonna get”. I’m glad Rondon and Joe Smith got added to the roster for the series with the Red Sox.

    P. S. DIANE WHERE ARE YOU GIRLFRIEND??!!!!

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  13. Watching the Dodgers Brewers game, and they put Josh Hader out to pitch *3* innings! Now he won’t be available until Sunday at the earliest, good heavens he’s good!

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    • The Brewers blew through 7 pitchers last night. And the last 4 really were not that impressive. I think there’s a kink in that armor. It would seem that this bullpen session strategy could backfire on them. I’m just glad that we have the pitching corp that we have, especially our starters. I guess we could do it if we had to but I’ll take ours any day over anybody else’s. And we got relievers that can go multiple innings. James, McHugh, LMJ can all go 3 plus innings if needed. I would hope we can get 6 solid innings from our starters but just like Arby’s, “we’ve got the beef (pitchers)”. I hope to see James get some work this series.

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  15. That was a heck of a game I missed last night. No Cable, no internet on island. Can’t have that happen tonight! Good to see Domingo come up with a big two run base hit. Maybe he’s still got a chance to be the guy I though he was going to be!

    Yes Becky, if we’re good enough to get past the Sox, I’d like to play the club using seven pitchers a night.

    My favorite left fielder went 0 for 4. I still wonder what he would have cost us. I’ve got to stop thinking about that. We’ll probably never know.

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  16. -When it comes to this series and the info surrounding it, I am below the poverty level. No, I can’t pay money to join the Athletic, The Houston Chronicle or the Boston Globe. Basically, my financial status shuts me out of half of the info related to these two teams. If the Washington Post or the NY Times has an interesting take on this series, I’ve got to subscribe to read it. So, I don’t read it. But, I do read everything about the Astros that IS free.
    -Wait a minute! Now Correa says he is feeling better than he has since his return. I thought he said that his back was killing him. I saw him taking batting practice yesterday. I think his back is better. Now, about that swing and that head?
    -Because of the Astros being ahead of Cleveland a lot, I think Hinch was trying to assign relievers more to innings than hitters. I’m pretty sure that may be a little different against Boston. Thus, 12 pitchers on the roster.
    -Imagine the Brewers breaking through against Kershaw with a home run by a relief pitcher. Then, he just loses it. And the Los Angeles Dodgers commit four errors.

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  17. I failed to mention that JB Bukauskas’s first AFL start was very good. The only run he allowed came in on a passed ball. That runner did get to third on a wild pitch, though.

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  18. As I watched last night’s game I thanked my lucky stars that our manager is A J Hinch. I thought Counsell and Roberts both over/micro managed the game where it became more about them and their incessant strategizing than the players. My feeling immediately after was that the Brewers may have won the battle but are set up to lose the war. I would be surprised if the Brewers win today. If we get back to the series I like our chances against either team but in a perverse way I hope we get a rematch against the Dodgers just to put them in their place. BTW, did anyone else notice that Yelich was horribly late on every AB last night? Every one of his foul balls except one was down the third base line. And it couldn’t have been just Kershaw since Yelich had a near .500 BA against Kershaw coming into the game. If he doesn’t hit I think it bodes ill for the Brewers. Of course a certain Astro outfielder went 0-4 in the first game of the World Series and ended up being the MVP and setting a record for total bases. Hope that George continues to show up.

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  20. I’m with you drbill, the more Milw show their relief arms the more they are exposed to those potent bats in a 7 gm series, dooming them to possible failure if continued in that fashion. Honestly I do not want a rematch with LA, sick of seeing, hearing about them. Milw would be a fresh change. Did anybody read the article where former MLB exec alleges MLB will do whatever to ensure LA gets to the WS (large market, ratings). Networks would love nothing more than LA/Sox WS ticket for those reasons. If by chance those two make it, I’m done with MLB for this season.
    I feel good about Astro pitching, even better if the lineup exercises the plate discipline necessary to make pitchers pitch *to* them & not free swing into prolonged funks. If we make pitchers bring the heat this lineup is even more dangerous than it already is.

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    • Good to hear from you Old School – I really am sick of the love affair with NY, LA and Chicago. I know $$$$ drive everything and that maybe makes the Astros running thru BoSox, Yanks and Dodgers even more remarkable.

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      • And another reason for not wanting the Dodgers to win. I’m on the east coast and have to stay up till 2AM. Of course I’ll do that for my Astros and day of the week. When I worked overseas (Kazakhstan) I got up at 3:00 Am to watch the Rams/Titans 2000 (I was still a fan since it was pretty much the Oilers team). Would I do that for the Astros. Everyday and twice on Sunday.

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    • Before we get too far on this, I want to point out that this executive is David Samson, on of the least respected and least liked people in baseball. He had his job because he was Jeff Loria’s stepson. He got Miami to build a stadium for the Marlins and then dismantled the team and sparked the ire of the few fans left of the Marlins. He is such an ass that he was voted off Survivor before the tribes ever made it to their camps. That had never happened before.
      I would not believe a word he says.
      That said, he could be right, because who believes that MLB wants the Brewers in the WS over LA. I believe he was spouting off the truth that everyone on the planet already knows but has the filter not to spout it off on camera.

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  21. MLB would certainly be lamenting an Astros, Brewers match up. And I’m not excited about the thought of going back to Milwaukee either. We’d have to win the series and bury an ugly past at the same time. I’d like to beat the other media acclaimed genius, Dave Roberts again.

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  23. I am officially nervous!!!! Verlander does everything in 3’S on the day he pitches…..so go outside and turn around 3 times to bring him good luck!!

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