Astros’ offense: Going back to the Hudgens’ card?

Let’s see…Dave Hudgens was here when the offense was not as good. Alex Cora and Carlos Beltran show up and the offense gets better. Alex Cora and Carlos Beltran leave and the offense gets worse. Voila! Dave Hudgens is to blame.

Here is the deal, I doubt the same front office that had no problem with dumping two managers (Brad Mills and Bo Porter), unloading or walking away from tons of poorly performing players (Carlos Pena, Jason Castro, Lucas Harrell, Jonathan Villar, Carlos Gomez, Phillip Humber, Chris Carter, Erik Bedard, Jesus Guzman, Jordan Schafer, Hank Conger, Roberto Hernandez – please stop me I’m feeling sick) would hold on to a hitting coach, who was a useless figurehead. Maybe Hudgens is not doing a good job or maybe the players are not listening to him or….here are some other theories.

Theory 1 -The Black hole returns….

Looking back, prior to 2016, the Astros’ offense was top-heavy with Springer, Altuve, Correa up top and a whole lot of nothing following after that. In 2018, the late return and the slow start of Yuli Gurriel, and the cold as Lord Voldemort’s heart hitting of Evan Gattis, Derek Fisher and especially Jake Marisnick has turned this lineup from one that was 8 or 9 deep to one that could even use Carlos Beltran to help it flip over. This ends up with the top of the lineup trying to force things because they don’t know when they will bat again.

But… they are even struggling with catchers Brian McCann and Max Stassi hitting well, Gurriel hitting better and Bregman hitting better.

Theory 2 – The Pitchers Have Them Figured Out…

Watching the team in the early going it is obvious that the Astros are often being worked differently than last season. Balls out over the plate or beyond, are breaking balls, change-ups for the most part. Fastballs are hard inside or even brushing back or plunking the good guys. They know the Astros love the hard stuff out where they can reach it.

But….the Astros are making things easier for the pitchers – taking pitches down the middle, expanding the strike zone, pounding the pitcher’s pitch into the ground. Like many young people, if they would only make better choices…

Theory 3 – It is Not Just the Astros

Batting averages and power numbers are down. Strikeouts are up. Speculation is that just like the baseballs changed during the playoffs to up the offense, baseballs have changed during the ensuing regular season to even things out.

But….. why would baseball want less offense when more offense is sexier and sells more tickets.

Theory 4 – That Pine Tar

Well, at least Cleveland Indian Trevor Bauer thinks that pine tar abuse is wide spread. Using pine tar allows pitchers to raise the spin rate and causes the ball to move more and be hitless.

But… if everyone is doing it, why is there still a nice bell curve of performance among pitchers – few great, few putrid and many in the vast area between.

Theory 5 – Cold Weather

We’ve heard it for years. When the weather warms up the bats warm up.

But…. the Astros were hitting a lot better last year at this time.

Theory 6 – Jose Altuve‘s Contract

Jose got paid and has been pressing trying to make himself worth that big paycheck. He is down to a low for him .305 BA / .358 OBP / .760 OPS and dragging down the offense.

But….On May 14 last year he was “only” hitting .286 BA / .357 OBP / .792 OPS after the games of May 14 in the same area as this year.

Theory 7 – It is Dave Hudgens

Just like he was probably not the only reason they were the best offense last season, he is not the only reason they are a little down this season.

Okay, what are your thoughts on what has happened to the offense and what needs to happen with the offense.

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114 responses to “Astros’ offense: Going back to the Hudgens’ card?”

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  2. Psst. I put on my trench coat, snuck into the parking garage in the wee hours of the night, met with ‘Deep Throat’, and got the real skinny on this crisis. Friends, it’s far worse than you imagined. According to him, here are the leading contributors to this current mess:

    1. Cardinal FO geeks indirectly connected to Vladamir Putin [reportedly also wears red] have been hacking our syber metric game-prep programs. [Lord knows, there’s been a lot of hacking going on!]
    2. Chem-trails are being dumped over baseball stadiums while the Astros are at bat this year; this changes the air pressure in the stadium [roof closed or roof open – doesn’t matter], deflects launch angle, and suppresses exit velocity.
    3. Children whose parents resisted mandatory vaccination are spreading swing-and-miss-itis to vaccinated baseball players when they get their autographs.
    4. Rob Manfred is the head of the Illuminati. His Pace of Play %!$* is all about keeping the hitters from getting comfortable at the plate.
    5. Pitchers who face the Astros are consuming foods with more GMOs – including two bowls of wheaties for breakfast on game days.
    6. Cole Hamels read the Harry Potter series and learned how to put a hex on the Astros offense.
    7. The Astros don’t have a single player named ‘Who’ [or even ‘Hu’] to ever get on first.
    8. Opposing teams’ trainers are spiking all the Astros’ position players’ water coolers with Xanax.
    9. Reddick’s WWE championship belt – the incentive for all our offensive heroics last season – was stolen by Alex Cora and taken with him to Boston.
    10. It’s all a result of global warming. Except NOBODY’S HOT!

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    • Oh man you’ve been listening to late night – coast to coast radio, but you are missing the obvious – aliens have abducted our hitters and replaced them with inferior replacements. But luckily the pitchers they left with us have hellacious spin rates due to having 8 fingers on their pitching hand.

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  3. Hey OP, what’s today’s topic? From the tomato 🍅 discussion, we got both a come from behind win with great D and solid pen work, plus the added bonus of the zombie getting taken in for therapy! That’s a pretty good return in one day. So what’s todays discussion about? How to you folks deal with negating the slime in okra?

    In think it was old school (good to hear from you sir) last night who pointed out how Bregman is simply showing patience. I think his OBP is up to .378 or something similar. We need the whole line up to fall into place and take four balls, or at least be patient enough to lay off the crap and wait the inevitable pitch that will come in over the plate. Guys in leadership like Jose and Carlos and George and marwin…..they’ve got to set the trend. Sure we’re getting pitched differently. Why would any club throw us the same stuff we were killling last year? But I don’t care who the pitching coach is. Altuve knows what he’s got to fix.

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  4. The Astros offense is fine. Top 10 in baseball in WAR and wRC+. Last year was one of the best offensive years in baseball history so regression was to be expected (unless you truly believed last year was the 1927 Yankees reincarnated). There is nothing wrong with the offense or Hudgens and we really shouldn’t over analyze it. This is just one man’s opinion.

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    • Tim I disagree to the extent that we’ve had 3 of 12 guys that use bats on the club do very little with those bats on the season. It looks like Gattis might be awakening. Jake has finally, mercifully been sent down. I want to believe Fisher will turn the corner, but he has sustained nothing since coming up 9 plus months ago. So there are issues.

      If there was nothing wrong wiith the offense, we would not be talking about it.

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      • Dave,

        I think we’re talking about it because we witnessed one of the greatest offenses in baseball history last year and anything in comparison is going to look like a struggling offense. There are individual players struggling, but as a collective unit the offense is fine. Also, the topic for this blog is whether Hudgens is to blame, which he clearly is not. I just think we got so spoiled by last year’s team that we expect it to continue this year. There was no way the Astros were going to, for all intent and purposes, clinch the division by Memorial Day this year. It will be a bit tougher, but I have zero concerns about this team winning the division. A baseball season is a long season and your going to have ups and downs (even last year we had the misery that was August). Personally, I am not the least bit worried, but I understand I don’t speak for everyone.

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      • Tim, most started the year thinking the Astros would win over 100 and the rest of the West would be around .500. Two of those teams have improved. A couple injuries for them have healed. So mix that with lack of offense, we apparently will not waltz into the playoffs. If the hitting turns around, the the pitching continues to be way over expectations, we will be fine. Not sure we will be fine scoring 2 runs a game. (They are averaging 4.66 or so, but the pitching is just out of this world.)

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  5. Tim , that top 10 in baseball is an average, right? Not an accurate picture.
    Scoring 8 runs against an inferior pitcher and being shut out against an average pitcher is the problem. The entire lineup looks lost against lefties and none of them can hit anything but fastballs.
    Trying to put everything over the fence is another problem.
    Shouldn’t someone, manager, coaches, GM be addressing this problem?
    If the league has figured our strategy out we should adjust.

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    • Every team is an average so this really doesn’t apply. They are still in the top 10 in several offensive categories. The offense is fine despite major regression, so far, from Marwin and Jake. Several players are off the pace of last year, but as I mentioned this was to be expected. Last year was an anomaly and if you’re going to compare every Astros offense to the 2017 team you will always be disappointed.

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  7. I gave up on the Astros and went to bed, fully expecting to wake up this morning discussing rotten tomatoes.
    I went to my computer and checked the score and am now drinking tomato juice.
    I read Hinch’s comments about how they can’t wait for Jake to come back and was reminded of the biblical story of the man who sold everything to buy the pearl of great value. Hinch is the guy who fell in love with a plain old rock he saw in his driveway.

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  8. Today’s topic is the Astros schedule. If they can play .500 baseball from now through June 3rd, they then embark on two months where they play against teams in their division and teams with less than stellar records.
    I think this is the reason they aren’t making moves to improve themselves. They see June and July as two months where they can build a lead.
    They are settlers right now who think things will get better soon.

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    • And to get there we only have to go through the Cleveland Indians [7 games], the Giants [2 games], the Yanks [3 games], and the BoSox [4 games].

      Piece of cake.

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    • Yup. This month and a half is the equivalent of last August when we struggled for a bit. Many of our hitters are playing well below their career levels, not just last year. Offense is down throughout baseball.?And we’re still on a pace to win 100 games aka one less than last year. It’s not panic time but we do need to make smart moves once we start making moves. Jake was just the beginning.

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  10. The Astros are calling up Tony Kemp. I am a bit surprised by this as it gives them 2 left-handed hitting left fielders. Tony is hitting well in Fresno and will be an offensive improvement from Jake (who wouldn’t at this point), but I thought it would be Davis or White.

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    • Maybe the Fish on on his way down shortly. Maybe Luhnow is making a deal with someone for the left fielder he decided not to pick up in March. We never know with our GM.

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      • I have to imagine that Davis and especially White have to be wondering what the heck they have to do to get a call-up. We need offensive help much more than defensive help and power more than speed – at least in my unabashedly un-humble opinion.

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      • My thought process on why it was Kemp is because they don’t plan to keep Jake down for a lengthy time and want to give him regular ABs. Neither White or Davis are regular OFers so by calling up Kemp they won’t have an overcrowded OF in Fresno allowing all the starters to continue getting regular ABs. I also think they trust Kemp playing in the OF for the Astros more than Davis or White, for obvious reasons. This tells me that Jake won’t be down long (maybe 10 days to 2 weeks).

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  11. Here is what is bugging me offensively. It is not that the offense has regressed. It’s that its regressed to the point it looks a lot more like 2016 than 2017.

    2016-4.47 R/g (8th in AL), 198 HR(9), .247 BA(13),.319 OBP (8), .735 OPS(9)
    2017-5.53 R/g (1st), 238 HR (2),.282 BA(1), .346 OBP (1), .823 OPS (1)
    2018-4.73 R/g (6),46HR proj 169HR(11).254 (7), .330 OBP (3), .737 OPS (8)

    Now there is time for 2018 to improve, but their power is down and OPS is back to 2016 levels. They went from one of the greatest years ever to league average offense. I think we would understand being #3 or so, but this drop to average has us bothered.

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  12. Tim, I can’t truly disagree with the points you’ve made stastically, I believe the point I was trying to express last night was how the lineup has hurt themselves at the plate by pressing so hard and not being patient, selective or disciplined, ala Bregman’s approach. We all know how much damage these guys did during their WS run when they did not press and forced the opposition to pitch to them.
    There was an excellent article in yesterday’s sports section of the Chronicle about Bryce Harper noting how impatience has taken a toll on his hitting. His numbers have fallen because he so desperately wants to hit and pitchers were pitching around him. Early on he took his walks now he wants to hit in his walk yr so he has expanded his zone even though he is crushing the ball and making hard contact. We have seen a lot of our guys do the same. Statistically I can’t disagree with your analysis about the offense but we’re seeing how impatience can choke even the best of professional hitters and ours is no exception. The solution entails more than simple patience though else the whole league would be hitting. How AJ, Hudgens and company convince these guys as a whole to buy into Bregmans approach looms large. They’ve done it before with great success.
    Jake is gone down and Fisher may follow. I don’t expect this offense to be 2017, that is unrealistic, but I do expect it to improve to take us where we need to go

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    • We would always like improvement in every area of the game. I wish Verlander and Cole would pitch shutout baseball every time they take the mound. My point is that, while the offense is not where it was last year, it is still a good offense and Hudgens is doing a fine job. The opposition is looking at every weakness our hitters have and is trying to exploit it. It is up to the hitters to make the adjustments. I truly think many Astros fans got spoiled by last year and will be disappointed if the offense isn’t close to matching it. Unfortunately, that is not realistic (neither is my wish that JV and Cole throw shutout baseball every time they take the mound). Overall, the Astros offense is still very good so any talk of shifting blame back to our regular punching bag, Dave Hudgens, seems unfair. If Beltran was that good of a hitting coach another team would have severely over paid him to become their hitting coach. While Beltran was a nice addition in the clubhouse as a veteran presence he had very little to do with the hitting resurgence. If he was maybe he should’ve taken his own advice last year. 🙂

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  13. How well we do in the next three or four series will tell the tale.
    If the Astros can stay near the top we will probably be fine.

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  15. A number of former Astros in the news today…
    – Luke Gregerson, who has been lit up is heading to the DL with a shoulder impingement
    – Jason Castro had full knee surgery and is out for the year – though he was putting up Marisnickian numbers before going down
    – Alex Presley is opting out with the O’s – which means they have to call him up to the big club or let him go find another team. He hit pretty well last year in the majors.

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  16. One good sign last night was that Altuve was on base three times with a single, the 3 run double, and a HBP and the one out he made was one he absolutely murdered that was run down near the wall. He looked like he was back.

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  17. You won’t get me to blame the hitting coach. At this level, they get too much credit or too much blame. But come late summer, we don’t want to be dealing with 25% of our bats being non-factors. I’m not concerned, because I know Luhnow will have done something about it by then. But I know the issue is on his mind.

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  18. Yeah, I don’t get Kemp, another lefty, and his lifetime .593 OPS. I’d rather work with four outfielders for the time being and get one of the two rightie’s up.

    OP, can we go back to produce now?

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  19. I do get Kemp, Dave – not based upon very limited MLB stats, where he has never really gotten a chance to show what he can do, but based on his lifetime Milb stats; His lifetime Milb OBP is .389. His Lifetime BA in Milb is .312. He has walked 257 to 271 strikeouts in 2187 ABs. He has the well-earned reputation of a hustler and a fire-starter. What this team needs in place of Marisnick is a guy who doesn’t flail like Marisnick. He puts the ball in play – and hits his way on base a lot. He knows the strike zone and has proven that he has enough plate discipline to lay off trash. He starts rallies – and keeps them going. And, to stop the K bloodflow on this team, he doesn’t K like a windmill – unlike J.D. Davis.

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  20. daveb and op – you can throw on some Booker T and the MGs and play some Green Onions. Or maybe something a little more modern like Blind Melon?

    I was looking at the disparity on games played due to the spring time weather chaos. The Astros and Padres lead the majors with 44 games played, while the Twin have played the least – 38 games. The Yanks are on the short side with 40 games played to date. There are some doubleheaders or long runs without days off facing some of these teams.

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    • I like Kemp. He may not hit home runs, but he makes contact with regularity and he can play infield or outfield. I saw him play a couple of times in college against LSU and he was a terror. I don’t care how much power Marisnick has if he can’t make contact. Kemp is underrated defensively also . I think it’s also time to send Fisher down.

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  21. Obviously I hope Kemp does all the things being described above. But I’m dubious. I thought when Kemp came up, he’d be coming up for the Fish.

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    • Myles Straw is not in the line-up for CC. Has anybody heard anything?

      And Mr. Kemp will be playing LF and batting 9th tonight against G. Richards and the Angels.

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  23. Look….my heart can’t have many more of these games! I knew in the 7th inning Verlander was gonna finish this game, but good Lord he sure made the last out interesting! I have a 4hr test in front of me at Kingwood hospital, I’m just glad it ain’t my HEART!

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  24. Fine series for the Astros. Second series in a row they lost the opener and then hung tough to win the next two. I think JV is putting an exclamation point on my question – who would you send out there to win a game you had to win…..

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    • If Evan hits, that is huge for us. If Kemp bats 9th and gets on base 1 or more times a game for Springer to drive in, that could be huge as well.

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  26. I would think the Angels organization has to be demoralized with the attendance at this series. 28,000 per game with the division at stake and facing the World Champs.
    I honestly thought this series would be close to a sellout.

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    • I was thinking the same thing OP. Years ago CA schools got out a lot later than they do in TX. Don’t know if that’s still the case. At least it’s better than the Rams.

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  27. I stayed up later than normal last night for a quicker than normal game. It gave me goose bumps a bit to see JV fired up (he is usually so stoic) as he came off the field in the 8th. He had gotten lucky as Calhoun blasted one with Kinsler on base, but it bounced over the fence to hold the runners at 2nd and 3rd. He then strikes out Valbuena on a perfect pitch just inside the box, down and in and then grabs a squibber and tosses it to first for the final out. There was no doubt as he came off the field that he was going to go back out in the 9th. he struggled a little, but finished them off and it was just a terrific performance by a guy at the height of his craft.

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  29. Hudgens deserves the same amount of credit for this season’s offense as he deserved for last season’s offense.
    I think the main reason the Astros are having problems at the plate is that there is not the same confidence in their hitting plan when stepping into the box. I also think that the player’s lack of concentration on the task at hand had led to some of this. Too much other dookie to think about is the distraction.

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  30. at 27-17 last night, the astros had the best start to a season of any world champion since 2006, according to a story on msn. i think these blogs that have panicked and are calling for radical change are way out of line. on another note, it took me 3 tries to figure out of to spell paniced, panicd, panicked.

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    • That’s pretty interesting news ray. I remain secure in the fact that our GM will do whatever is necessary to give this club the best possible chance of repeating.

      You think though about how many things had to fall in place last year in both 7 game series. So many individual plays with a different outcome over that 14 game span could have sent us home. I guess that’s why repeating is so difficult.

      I was thinking last night how rare it is these days for a starter to throw 117 or how ever many pitches it was that Verlander threw. I sure hope he gets enough rest during the season so that he can still do that in late October.

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    • 27-17 would put Houston on pace for 99 wins. I can’t recall many teams winning 99 the year after winning a World Championship. What does spring to mind are performances like SF in recent years. I clicked over to wikipedia and found the following sub-headers:
      2010: First Championship in San Francisco
      2011: Back to Square One
      2012: Champions Again
      2013: Inconsistent Struggles
      2014: Third World Series Championship in San Francisco
      2015: Odd Year Curse
      2016: End of the even year dynasty

      We hear a lot about the NBA playoffs draining players and additionally how the Olympic competitions take their toll, but last year we had the WBC and post-season baseball go into November. I’m also concerned how the team will hold up throughout the summer.

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      • Devin,

        You make some interesting points here that I, and maybe others, didn’t consider. With the WBC last year, the season ending on November 1st and the report date for pitchers and catchers being one of the soonest in recent memory it can be expected that the Astros might be a bit sluggish to start the year. Heck, look at what is happening with the Dodgers. Considering we are now 28-17 with all the other factors put into place we should be ecstatic the Astros are in the position they are on May 17th. It is my guess that Luhnow and the front office expected the offense to be off from last year (due to the many factors listed along with natural regression) and thought the best way to combat that is to add another TORP to the pitching staff. The more I think about it the more excited I am at how this season will progress. As Dave mentioned, repeating is extremely difficult and it’s probably no coincidence it has happened since 2000. However, no champion has started off as well as the Astros have this year in a long time and that is really a testament to this organization. I have said it before and I will say it again…folks, the Astros are in really, really good hands.

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  31. Comment to old pro on Blind Melon – I’m mostly a later 1960’s to late 1980’s music guy. Blind Melon came along in the mid 1990’s and had one big hit “No Rain” that I liked a lot because it had a kind of late 1960s neo-psychedelic/hippie electric kind of vibe.
    And of course, being a rock band they had to have big time drug drama. Their lead singer Shannon Hoon was big into the nose candy. They sent him to rehab a number of times and he seemed to settle a bit, did gardening (I don’t think he really would have been an op kind of gardener) and had a daughter with his girl friend.
    Well they put out a second album and head out to tour. They have someone assigned to keep Hoon’s imbibing in check, but after he reports on him a few times and is unable to stop him they get rid of the checker. They then have a gig in Houston that doesn’t go well due to Hoon’s condition. He then goes on a binge and they find him the next day in the bus dead from a heart attack / cocaine overdose at age 28 (a month earlier and he would have joined the pantheon of the rock dead at 27).
    So that is the ballad of Blind Melon and Shannon Hoon.

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    • And I guess that’s why I never heard of Blind Melon.
      I have been through the gauntlet, music wise. Anything rock and roll up to the late sixties.
      Then it was classic rock up until the late 70’s when I got so busy I stopped listening.
      When I had three kids in the mid 80’s I needed something huge and that was classical symphonic music. That was the time when I learned music in the way it was meant to be appreciated. The Mrs and I were attending the Houston Symphony and it was wonderful.
      When I couldn’t afford the symphony and had a spiritual renewal I listened to Christian music for several years. Amy Grant and Vince Gill pushed all that to the background and I coasted with nothing for years.
      I listen to great movie music now, when I choose music.
      But my son will sit down next to me with his phone and hook up to his playlist of thousands of songs from back in the early seventies and will play me one line from them and make me name the artist and song. I still get about 90% of them right, until he starts in with the one-hit wonders. I have my limitations.

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      • I think we could find a lot of common ground and if I brought along my 23 year old brilliant son – he can blow us all out of the water on 70’s rock and roll trivia…… We could eat tomatoes and drink barley and hops products.

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  32. Apparently the Astros want Jake to get every at bat he can because he is leading off and playing CF for Fresno in El Paso tonight.

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  33. Ryan Hartman, a LHP that nobody ever talks about shuts down the SA Missions tonight. San Antonio has the best record in the Texas league.
    Hartman gave up 4 hits and a BB in 6.1 innings and struck out 11 batters. Myles Straw is back in the leadoff spot for CC and they win 4-0.
    Josh James struck out 10 in five innings for Fresno tonight and JD Davis hit for the cycle and drove in 5 runs in a 9-7 win for Fresno. James’s only real mistake was a two run home run in his third inning. He gave up 3 hits and 2 BBs. Marisnick was 0 for 4 with 2 Ks.

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  34. Note on JV’s 2500 K. He now ranks 33rd all time.
    http://www.baseball-almanac.com/pitching/pistrik1.shtml

    Nolan Ryan had to have used something other than Advil. But what is interesting: Ryan, Blyleven, Gaylord Perry, Fergie Jenkins, Tanana (by the time he was a Ranger, he was a junk ball pitcher), Kevin Brown, Hamels, Millwood Witt, Darwin, and probably others all went through Arlington. Yet all those years and even today, THEY STINK.

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    • I’m mid-way through my first cup of coffee. When I read your post I originally parsed it to say that Jake Marisnick had struck out 2500 times already…and I thought, that’s a bit high, but plausible. Then, I re-read the sentence and realized it was talking about pitchers.

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  37. For comparison purposes only (your mileage may vary):
    Fisher – 13 hits in 72 ABs all in majors
    White – 51 hits in 137 ABs – AAA
    Davis – 6 hits in 24 ABs – majors and 54 hits in 127 ABs
    It would take Fisher about 300 ABs to get to 54 hits at the pace he is going

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      • More on Davis

        -36 RBI (17 doubles) in 32 games.
        -ISO(lated) power .244, while hitting .425. That’s a whopping .669 slugging.
        -1.7 years younger at Fresno.
        -In 259 Innings, zero errors in LF, 3B and 1B.
        -Only 28 strikeouts in AAA, but put him on the mound as a pitcher for HOU; 16.2 K/9.

        I’d put Sipp down and bring up J. D. Our starters are going deep enough every game, we don’t need 13 pitchers. I also believe we’ll sweep Cleveland, and his team is going to regret “Tyler” Bauer’s intimations.

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  38. I think the Astros will try to ride out the end of May, all of June and part of July with the position players they have on the major league roster and Fresno’s roster.
    As the middle of July approaches the Astros will evaluate where they stand and could then look to the market for rental help for the rest of the year.
    It would be a mistake to think that White, Davis, Ferguson, Kemp, Straw and others are not also attracting the attention of other teams.. We traded several players who were going to be stymied after reaching AAA for Gerritt Cole, and those young players obviously were attractive to Pittsburg.
    The season is long and the Astros are not without options and cash to make necessary moves as the deadline nears without losing their most coveted prospects.
    Again, a friendly reminder that Colin Moran’s stats look good only because he is being platooned and is not facing any LHP. This seems ok until the realization that his team has to carry 2 starting third baseman. That will work for now, but will eventually backfire because of injuries or bullpen woes limiting their roster.
    I think the Astros are in a good spot. I bitch and moan about their losses, but I still think by the end of the season they have the means to contend for another title.

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    • Let’s wait and see on that one. Pittsburgh hasn’t faced that many left handed starting pitchers this year. They may do less platooning as that changes. Also, in a larger sample size, Bregman has been nearly as bad against LHP as Moran this year. Oddly, Marwin has been almost identically inept against LHP this year. If that continues then we could see something happen – like Davis facing lefties during the summer.

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      • I’m impressed that Moran has maintained an excellent OBP. He’s not giving away his at bats. He does remain a real liability at 3rd though. That won’t change. I don’t know how drastically the Pirates employ shifts, but in the Astro system, Bregman makes more plays than Moran would. He gets to much more stuff.

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      • Speaking of which Dave – did folks see the distance Bregman covered the other night on a pop-up in foul territory when he was stationed by 2nd base? He looked like he was running the 40 yd dash at the combine – impressive hustle that I know the whole team appreciates, especially the pitchers.

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      • Bregman is the third worst starting 3B in the game defensively. In terms of UZR/150, which demonstrates a player’s range, Moran is -7.6, and Bregman is worse at -8.7. I mentioned before how Bregman made a gaffe during LMJ’s bad outing, and his RngR proves he’s poor at cutting off the ball at -4.7. He’s a better SS than 3B, and a bat we need in the lineup.

        https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

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      • Grayson, just because a guy has the worst stats over the first six weeks of the season, that does not mean he is the worst starting 3B in the game defensively.
        Cole Calhoun has the worst stats offensively of any player in the game over the first six weeks, but that doesn’t make him the worst player in the game offensively. It means he is mired in a slump.
        We saw what Bregman can do defensively in the playoffs. His defense right now is going through the exact same thing that the Astros team is going through offensively. It is distraction and lack of concentration.
        Bregman and the rest of the Astros players need to gather themselves together and shut out the rest of the outside distractions that keep bleeding their concentration and be the team they are supposed to be.

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      • Grayson, we’ve had this discussion before here. Frankly, I simply do not trust the ability of all the (some are better than others) defensive formulas to accurately portray what is actually happening on the field, especially as shifting becomes more and more extreme.

        Dans example of Bregman’s catch of a foul pop the other night is a perfect one. No way Moran comes from where Bregman did, almost behind second base, to make that catch. I’ve seen enough of both guys to know who is covering more ground. Bregman still has much to learn, in fact he needs to leave some balls in the hole to Correa, rather than trying to make a play on them, balls that Moran would not come close to reaching.

        Admittedly, I’m dubious of some advanced stats. This next point is not directed at you. But too often today people are quoting all kinds of statistical information, but once engaged about the game being played on the field, have no real intuition for it. They have not spent their lives playing and really watching it. And that’s a disadvantage.

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      • My understanding, Grayson, is that defensive metrics don’t take shifting into account and no team shifts more than the Astros. I am not here to proclaim Bregman as a gold glove 3B, but in this example I don’t trust the metrics deliver the full picture.

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  48. Biggest hit of the game by Kemp – something Jake was not going to gjve us. Good situational hitting by Marwin and Gattis to get in the 4th run after no situational hitting all night.

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    • Giles was a little unlucky – one grounder that Correa usually grabs and one shift beater – but he closed the deal.

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