A not-so-Free Blog Weekend

The normal formula around here is to throw out a couple of ideas for the weekend, but promote a Free Blog Weekend of thoughts on any Astros’ subject. Instead, today we will focus the discussion on “What Would You Do, If You Were In Charge?”

Let’s look on a few areas of potential change…..

Management and Coaching. Our blog friend, Diane, pointed to our multiple complaints about A.J. Hinch’s decision-making lately and wondered if that is a subject. We know that Hinch’s right hand man, Alex Cora is gone And leading the high-flying Red Sox. We know that Carlos Beltran, who was probably a quasi-coach/ player is now retired. First Base coach Rich Dauer is retired (thankfully surviving a near death episode at the Championship parade). So….If you were in charge…

  • Would you tell Hinch we know it was really Cora making the great decisions and stealing signs so Hinch is on the hot seat for his bullpen usage, lineup choices, substitution choices, etc?
  • Would you tell Dave Hudgens we now realize that with Cora and Beltran gone that the offense has sunk back to its 2015/2016, poor situational hitting and high K numbers and he is on the hot seat or gone? Look at friend of the blog, old pro’s discussion of offensive regression per Fangraphs in the last Chippie post.
  • Would you tell Brent Strom that his brilliant work with the starting rotation has earned him a lifetime contract?
  • Would you tell Brent Strom that his crappy preparation work with the bullpen, especially the closer spot has earned him a hot seat designation?

Front Office. What would you do relative to the front office and the GM Jeff Luhnow?

If you were in charge…..

  • Would you praise him for picking up two TORs in Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole for prospects without gutting the team?
  • Would you dun him for again not finding this team a decent DH, when there were a lot of solid bats out there at reduced prices late in the Spring? Same for the LF spot.
  • Would you ask him what he was thinking in throwing big money at relievers Joe Smith who is giving up more than a run an inning and Hector Rondon, who has yet to be given a high leverage assignment?
  • Would you ask him when enough is enough relative to the terrible performance of Derek Fisher? Jake Marisnick? Evan Gattis? Tony Sipp?
  • Would you ask him why he moved J.D. Davis down just when he started hitting and kept Derek Fisher up?
  • Would you tell him – the heck with the Championship, you are on the hot seat young man?

Personnel. What personnel moves need to be done now or by the trade deadline? These include changing people’s roles and changing people….

If you were in charge….

  • Would you trade Dallas Keuchel and replace him with Collin McHugh? Would you move McHugh into the rotation and move Keuchel into the bullpen? Would you hand McHugh the closer’s role even though he has never thrown back to back games?
  • Would you hand Chris Devenski the closer’s role?
  • Would you conjure up a 10 day DL for Joe Smith and then have him work out his problems in rehab, meanwhile bringing up some help from the minors? Who would you bring up – James Hoyt?
  • Would you see if you can pry away a big time closer from another team, even though almost every big time closer on every team failed in the playoffs and the Astros beat the problem with using starters as closers?
  • Would you demote Fisher or Marisnick or both?
  • Who would you bring up? Tyler White? Davis? Drew Ferguson? Tony Kemp? Or the next big thing Kyle Tucker?
  • What to do about Evan Gattis and his $6.7 million salary (that drops about $1.1 million every month)? Wait for him to go on his inevitable hot streak? Move him back to back up catcher and send Max Stassi down? (Man that would  be mean to Stassi). Send him and $4 or $5 million bucks to someone for a single A level prospect pitcher?

Dan P’s thoughts….

  • I am an overall patient person.  Baseball is an up and down game. The Astros have stunk lately and are percentage points out of the division lead.
  • Hinch and Luhnow have been more patient than we would ever be. But that kind of patience kept George Springer in the lineup in the playoffs until he became the WS MVP. That kind of patience kept Brad Peacock in the organization until he became one of the best pitchers on a WS winner.
  • I understand Hinch has made some mistakes, but he is also responsible for the long view and if he stops using everyone who slumps he will soon have a full bench and an empty field.
  • I would do some tweaking with the bench. At the very least send Fisher down and bring back White or Davis. I know that hurts speed and OF flexibility, but you can’t steal 1B.
  • I would be looking hard at the hitters’ approach. Do they need a special consultant hitting whisperer (Carlos Beltran?) on the bench? Ask Carlos if he would like to hang around the guys again and make $X million….
  • I would explore what the closer market looks like. But very few teams think they are out of it and many times the closers that are available have been successful in low-pressure non-pennant race situations.

So……it’s your turn. What would you do? What would you wait on? What would you never do?

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115 responses to “A not-so-Free Blog Weekend”

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  1. Right now I am content just to ignore the big club and watch the PCL and Texas League. Both the Griz and the Hooks have been getting better WAY, WAY better offensive production than the big ‘Stros have been able to muster as they stumble around in their post WS-victory tour mindset haze.

    I now expect us to lose every game. When my curiosity gets the best of me, and I just have to look [i.e. my long-standing symptoms of Astro-holism kick in] I can always just look at the box score of the major league team’s game. Usually I am able to predict 90% of what I will find there. Two of the foursome of Springer, Altuve, Correa and Gurriel will get at least one hit – but probably will score no more than one run. One of Marwin, Reddick, and our catcher will get a hit, but no more than one of them – and probably none of them – will have scored or driven in a run. If Gattis was the DH, he will be 0-fer whatever, with at least one strikeout. If Marisnick played, he will be 0-fer whatever, with at least two strikeouts. The starting pitcher will have pitched well enough to win; and whoever pitched out of the bullpen, other than maybe Devo or McHugh – will have pitched badly enough to cause us to lose.

    It is like a broken record. It is not for lack of talent – Heaven knows we have that. It appears to be just the post-WS championship blahs. We are the Cubs.

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  2. First things first. Handle the situation that you know is not going to fix itself.
    Jake Marisnick. Marisnick’s 2017 was the outlier. This season and every season other than 2017 is Jake. 2017 was the year where the odds of a bad player having a decent season happened. Jake was falling fast, though, when he got hurt.
    2018 is the year that all of the luck gets turned back into the dookie that is Jake at the plate and it takes a big negative to return a false positive back into the norm of his capabilities. Just when you think his bat cannot sink low enough, it does.
    Jake has to be miserable and needs to try something somewhere else. He has options. Send him down and tell him you will try to trade him if he wants and if you can.
    Bring up Tony Kemp to replace him and put Kemp at the bottom of the lineup and in LF and keep Springer in CF and Reddick in RF. Let Marwin play all positions to give guys rest, since he is back to his normal output, offensively.
    That’s my first move. It is not radical. Any other team would already have done this.

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    • It would be nice to have someone/anyone on base when Springer comes to bat.
      I think Altuve is pressing to earn his new contract. He has expanded that zone a bunch.
      Overall opposing pitchers are feeding our hitters a bigger percentage of breaking balls and are coming inside a lot more than previously.
      If they know a guys tendency is to take a strike they are bringing that fastball right down Broadway. If they know a guy is more likely to swing at the first pitch (Altuve) they are giving him a Biggio special – a slider a foot low and a foot outside.
      Our guys need to adjust and they are not doing it.

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  3. The Braves called up Bautista to play 3B and optioned Preston Tucker, whose bat has cratered in the last two weeks.
    Can it be noted that Tucker’s numbers are so much better than Marisnick’s that it isn’t very funny.

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  4. I think Marisnick and Fisher both have to go; Jake for all the reasons listed above and Fisher because he clearly has squandered his opportunity and if he is redeemable at all he needs to be playing every day and that can’t be with the big club. Kemp seems a no-brainer. The tough choice is White or Davis, both of whom deserve their shot. If you could get rid of Gattis then bring up both but I don’t see how that happens barring a trade. I know some of the other prospects are looking good but I really don’t think any of them are tearing the place apart to warrant a call up and a spot on the 40 man or a jump over the guys who are already on the 40 man. I might change my tune if K Tuck goes ballistic in AAA like Springer and Correa did.

    I’ve been lobbying for more meaningful innings for McHugh for some time. Frankly IMHO the organization is treating him pretty shabbily considering his overall history with the club and never having failed big time. Since his return from the DL last year and developing a slider he’s looked darn good. I think he’s unflappable. How will we know if he can handle the closer role without trying? I’m pretty pleased with Devo and like his temperament but his delivery still concerns me and I fear inconsistency. Harris proved he’s not up to the closer role not just yesterday but when he got that chance in 2016 and dropped the ball. Walking the leadoff hitter was his bonehead of the season so far. Now I think I’ll catch a breath and see what the rest of y’all think.

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  5. Quad Cities just got back to back jacks in the first inning – Jonathan Arauz followed by Michael Papierski. Ah, I remember now what having an offense is like!

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  7. Question If we bring JD up and his now .405 average , where does he Play, 1B or DH and the Gattis is a waste , but Hinch and Jeff have a man crush on him and Jake? BP I would have Harris or Peacock 7th, Mchugh 8th and devo close and once in a While mix it up. I have no idea what to so with Smith, Rondon, Sipp and Giles, Mop up?

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  8. What’s my next move? Marwin becomes the Super sub again, which works since he’s not hitting.
    Next, I DFA Evan Gattis and replace him at 3rd catcher and DH with Garrett Stubbs.
    What? Look, he’s a better catcher than Gattis ever was and he’s a better hitter who doesn’t strike out and is fast. This gives you a true three man rotation behind the plate and a guy off the bench who can steal bases, throw out baserunners in the late innings and he’s hitting .361 at AAA. I’m sorry, but how many teams have a terrific young defensive catcher hitting .361 at AAA who runs well. You’re replacing a slow DH who’s hitting .190, who’s a backup catcher who can’t catch and who is supposed to be a power hitter but isn’t and he’s striking out at a 35% clip. Give Stubbs a chance to learn everything he can from McCann, while he can.
    Next, send Fisher down and purchase Drew Ferguson’s contract and bring him up as your fourth outfielder. He can play every outfield position, has a better arm than Fisher and is hitting .350 at Fresno.
    Ferguson has to get a 40-man spot, so who loses a 40-man spot? DFA Tony Sipp. Hinch won’t use him so why waste a spot on a guy the manager is afraid to use. Sipp is still getting twice the flies as he is grounders and he needs to go. He is the Jake Marisnick of the pitching staff. Bring up Hoyt.

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  9. Watching the Buies Creek Astros in Winston Salem. Just put up a 5 spot with 4 singles, 2 doubles, a triple, and LI and behold a sacrifice bunt.

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  10. We only have 37 on the 40 man right now so we could add someone without DFA. Adding Stubbs is attractive and 1OP’s move makes some sense, especially giving Stubbs some exposure to McCann. I can’t see Ferguson over Kemp, White or Davis.

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  12. Well I’m sending Jake and Derek down, so I need two outfielders and that is Kemp and Ferguson. Davis and White are each playing several positions in Fresno to prepare them for being Marwin’s replacement next year and since Marwin is still around, I can let the other two learn several positions now in AAA.

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  13. I just noticed that Colin Moran is not being allowed to face LH pitching. He has 5 PAs for the year against lefties.

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  14. These are *my* moves:
    Send Marisnick and Fisher down.
    Bring up Kemp and Ferguson or White.
    DFA- Sipp, and try to pry another lefty from someone.
    We need another DH Gattis ain’t cutting it.
    Find out if Harris is hiding a sore elbow, and give him a DL rest.
    No…..bringing Hoyt back up is not the answer, and I don’t know how many options he has left.
    There are pieces to trade for another bullpen piece. DO IT!!
    Please baseball Gods….let these guys give our pitchers some run support!!

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  15. I am probably more patient with players than most fans. I am definitely not sending down Fisher as his speed is too much of an asset and it will be needed. I am as frustrated with Jake as everyone, but if he is sent down, assuming he has options, I would rather have a RH bat since Fisher is LH. Kemp is also LH and we really don’t have a decent RH OFer in Fresno, unless you want to count J.D. Davis, but he is limited to LF. Lastly, I don’t give Gattis much more time. Personally, I would be done with him and bring up Dave’s nephew, but my guess is that Luhnow will give him until the end of this month to see if he can turn it around. Gattis is on this team for one reason and one reason only, to hit for power. He has a below average BB rate, above average K rate and offers no defensive value. If he’s not hitting for power then he is completely and utterly useless.

    I didn’t read the comments after yesterday’s game so I don’t know what the masses here think, but I do know many on Twitter were blaming Hinch for not letting Devo pitch a 2nd inning. I don’t think Hinch is to blame. We all saw how Devo wore down late in the season and into the playoffs. It is clear the Astros want to limit him to 1 inning per outing. Harris has been very good this year and the 6-7-8 hitters were coming up. He should have been able to convert that save with a 2-run lead. It was the right move to go to Devo in the 8th inning as that was the highest leverage inning with the 3-4-5 hitters coming up. If anyone is to blame it is Harris as he simply made some bad pitches. Imagine seeing the Devo we saw last night in October. The Astros want that Devo and they will probably not let him go multiple innings during the regular season.

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    • I know what you are saying Tim about Devo, but it was only 12 pitches – that’s not much. He was so dominant I thought he would go back out.

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      • I don’t think the pitch count mattered. It was May 3rd and if they keep extending him after a quick inning then it defeats the whole purpose of limiting his innings. I think there were several defensible options. Letting Devo go 2 innings, go to Harris, Peacock or Giles I think we’re all reasonable and defensible options.

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  16. A little better start as Springer singles and then Altuve waits until he gets a strike and hits a double and Yuli brings him home for a 2-0 lead

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    • The top of the lineup gets it going with two outs in the second – working the count – laying off the bad pitches – Springer singles, Altuve walks and Correa doubles them both in – 4-0 Astros

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  19. I felt sorry for Medlin tonight……you know he was as nervous as he could be.
    Putting 7 on the board for us makes me happy tho!! I don’t want our pitchers to take the bat off their shoulders!!! Their fingers mean more than getting a hit.
    The guys absolutely know how Cole is pitching….he just gave up his first hit.
    Nope….don’t even THINK about swinging a bat!

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    • Cole 10 Ks, one walk and one hit thru 5 innings. Absolutely right, Becky – don’t swing Cole and don’t stand near the plate.

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    • I was at the game Becky and I can tell you Medlen looked totally clueless, especially for a guy that’s been around and had some success. And the AZ hitters WERE totally clueless against Cole. It was a team effort in cluelessness. And this was a team that came in with a better record than us.

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  26. Ok Charlie and Justin….Cole just threw down the gauntlet!
    Top 16 strikeouts!! Lordy folks this guy is AMAZING!!!

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  28. Staying in to finish his game!!! Only the second game to go the distance!
    Oh.
    My.
    Goodness.
    WHAT A GAME!!
    GARRETT COLE WE *L O V E* YOU!

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  32. By the way, Dansby Swanson got put on the DL and Preston Tucker got called up on the same day he had just been sent to AAA.

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  33. Manager Decisions: All decision that work out are brilliant moves? Those that don’t work out make him deserve firing? When a batter hits a home run, we don’t praise the manager. We need to let the season play out.

    Front Office: The last sentence is accurate. He is always on the hot seat, but first everyone fires the manager. JL and crew have done a good job. He was quick in late 2016/early 2017 to pick up McCann, Reddick, and Beltran. He has been slow to get a top arm in the bullpen. Re-read the last sentence above.

    Personnel: Once again I am a genius when yesterday I stated the solution to the bullpen was for the starters to go 9. 🙂 We need to solve the 3 terrible batters problem or get a shut out ever game. That means the starters need to pitch about 270 innings each. OR we need to start scoring runs like today. 14 hits and 8 runs take the pressure off. But in close games, we need every hitter to be a tough out.

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      • Just grabbed a year to look at….
        In 1966 – the AL had 334 complete games out of 1612 games – about 20% of the time.
        In 2017 – the AL had 32 complete games out of 2430 games – about 1.5%
        So in 2017 each team averaged about 3 CG for the year (though 8 of the teams had 0 or 1 CGs)
        In 1966 each team averaged having 3 complete games every 15 games.

        CGs are on the endangered species list

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  34. I wrote some months back that Luhnow’s next bit of growth will be proving that he can make the tough personnel moves with guys he likes. Marisnick is definitely giving JL an opportunity for growth. Before last season I expressed the belief that Marisnick is not a ML caliber player on a championship team. He proved me wrong last year, for a year, but as OP and others have noted, he’s back to what he is. I think if they made a move to send down Jake and made some move with Gattis it would get the attention of the rest of the team, hopefully in a positive way. As to who to bring up: I don’t really care among the the Kemp/White/Davis crowd. They have all been around long enough and had chances. Whoever gets called up gets no pablum: either produce or we move on to the next guy.

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  35. As far as the starting pitching goes, the only change I would make now would be to move Keuchel into the slot as the #5 starter because that is how he is pitching for us. This would allow him to not get matched up against #1s or #2s. Let him get matched up against weaker pitchers so that he is fairly matched and it gives us a better chance to win with him. What other team has a former Cy Young winner with a 3.98 ERA as their fifth starter?

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  36. Thoughts on last night:

    1. A.J. Hinch finally figured out how to use this bullpen.

    2. The spirit of Randy Johnson visited a game between two of his former teams, and decided to possess the body of an Astro pitcher – Gerrit Cole. From this time forth we can call Gerrit the ‘not-quite-as-Big Unit’.

    3. Our guys expected it to be hot in Phoenix. Their game plan going was to take huge swings that would miss the ball but fan the crowd. As usual with our bunch this year, there was a horrible failure of execution. Their swing couldn’t miss a ball no matter how hard they tried.

    4. Arizona stole our above-described offensive game plan before the game, and executed it to almost flawless perfection.

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  37. Didn’t see all the game but what I did see was a lot of fun to watch. Jake was only batter w/o a hit but he did get robbed of a home run on a great play by Dyson. And he only struck out once. Not enough words to describe Cole’s performance.

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  38. So far this year 2 things are 100% true

    * We are a WS team when we sleep in a hotel and wear gray.

    * We are stellar when AJ doesn’t have to use his Ouija Board to manage the BP.

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  42. One of the main reasons Yordan Alvarez is ranked so highly is that he has great stats with a relatively low BABIP of .324. Most of the players with very high statistical % have very inflated BABIPs in the minors so far this season.

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  43. I think we’ll remain frustrated awhile longer. Luhnow won’t make changes at this point unless the team really starts to tank. Fisher and Marisnick are both excellent athletes, and the GM does not have replacements for that athleticism. So I think they’ll get more time.

    That said, I’d bring up Kemp to play left and hit 9th against righties. I’d bring up White to take at bats from Gattis and Marwin. He can DH and play first once a week and give Bregman a day off every now and then. He can also handle a grounder at second in a pinch.

    I send Fisher down to see if he can figure out how to hit again. I send Jake down because he just does not hit enough to be a major leaguer regardless of how well he does other things. We won a World Series without him.

    The downside is that the club becomes less athletic. Marwin becomes our only back up outfielder. We lose some defense. Yes, we can bring Davis back and leave White in Fresno, but Davis is not a good outfielder. That might get Ferguson a job at some point, especially if Gattis does not figure things out.

    At the same time, we take a burden off our good hitters. Both Kemp and White will put the ball in play. We take a lot of pressure from our starters. If we start scoring runs again regularly the guys on the mound won’t have to be perfect. They can throw a mistake every now and then. Cole looked so relaxed on the hill last night. And the pen benefits too. They are coming into too many tight games and are pitching defensively. And last, we’re making it too easy on opposing pitchers. This team should not be getting shut out.

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    • I was encouraged by the hitters’ approach last night – especially Altuve who has been dumpster diving for bad pitches and last night made them pitch to him. But we can’t have consistency if the end of the lineup is so bad.

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  44. Cole’s Game Score of 100 was only the 14th Game Score of 100 or higher in major league history. If I’m not mistaken, it came two days before the 20th anniversary of Kerry Woods’ best Game Score ever, 105, and that was his record tying strikeout game against the Astros.

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    • It was one of the most dominant games I’ve watched by an Astro pitcher since the halcyon days of Mike Scott …..speaking of substances. But truthfully this was more about velocity and hitting spots and perfectly blending in the breaking ball.
      Nicely called game by Stassi too.

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  45. Cole had some nice things to say about Stassi after the game. I think we’ve got a pretty good back up catcher. If he manages a .700 OPS, we should be pleased.

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  46. The Yankees won their 14th out of 15 today. Of course the loss was to us on Monday night after getting into Houston at 4:00 AM. We should be thankful for that. They’ve beaten some good clubs during this stretch. We’ll need to be a better team come October then we are now.

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  47. Verlander spoke very highly of Stassi in spring training. Having a guy like that tell your manager he is comfortable throwing to him, speaks volumes.
    Greinke has a new Ephesus ball that’s about 54mph. Look for him to use it as a strike out ball tonight. Greinke is as Astros killer.

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  48. UH OH………. Charlie can’t find the plate!! Oh LORDY walked the bases loaded in the first. ((((GULP))).

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  50. Finally Fisher gets a key hit. Chance to go ahead but Springer falters. This is where we just csn’t seem to get the big hit. Now lets hope the BP holds.

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