Astros’ Update: We interrupt this trade talk …

Another starter? Another bat? How about a legit closer who is a flame thrower? Yes, apparently Jeff Luhnow is keeping his phone charged and the ringer on this week.

Until that other shoe drops, here are a few things to take your mind off the non-stop Cole Hamels talk.

 

1. During Tuesday’s win, Bill Brown and Alan Ashby mentioned that the Astros have 24 come-from-behind wins this season. Make that 27 now.

Thing is, after nine outs last night, down 4-1 against a good starter and a good lineup, the 2014 (or 2013 or 2012) Astros would have started looking to tomorrow. Game over. Those teams just didn’t believe they could come back. This year’s team does.

But why?

Now there are a couple of reasons this year’s team doesn’t give up. One is the bullpen generally stops the bleeding. Collin McHugh gave up five runs. In past years, you could have counted on the bullpen to give up three or four more. But this year’s bullpen held the Angels to the five runs McHugh had given up.

Still, down 4-1, last season’s bats would have gone quietly into that good night. So, what’s the difference in last season’s offense and this one’s? Well, this season, the Astros are hitting a slash line of .244/.311/.425 with 138 HRs in 101 games. Last season, the Astros hit .242/.309/.383 with 163 HRs in 162 games. The K rate is essentially the same.

What’s the difference? Well, essentially it’s the difference between 1 HR/game and 1.3 HR/game. The other interesting part of this is how that power comes. The 2014 Astros had five players with double-digit homers. Most notable were Chris Carter (37), George Springer (20) and, yes, Matt Dominguez (16). This season’s Astros have 10 players on track (7 homers or more at this point) for double digit homers.

Carter not getting it done? Jose Altuve is hitting. Jose having a rare 0-for night? Carlos Correa is hitting. Or Colby Rasmus. Or maybe Jed Lowrie starting this weekend. Or Evan Gattis or Luis Valbuena or … you see how this works. This is a much deeper lineup even if, overall, it’s not better besides the power.

So, how does this team believe in itself enough to come back all these times?

 

2. Speaking of Evan Gattis, he is currently ranked third in the AL in triples with seven. The two guys ahead of him, center fielders. The guy tied with Gattis, a center fielder. The guys right behind him, center and left fielders, and one second baseman. Of the top 14 (five triples or better) triples hitters in the AL this season, all have at least three stolen bases. Well, all except Gattis, who has none.

Other than a good chuckle about Evan “Cheetah” Gattis, why do I bring this up? Simple. Unlike the other triples hitters out there, Gattis isn’t using his speed to make it happen. It’s his power. Last night he banged the ball so hard off the wall the outfielders spent time chasing it down before they could corral the ball. Time that Gattis, who didn’t really start running until after he rounded first base, used to end up standing — standing! — on third base.

Power is really making me rethink how to build a lineup. Sure is nice Luhnow thought of it first.

 

3. MLB has updated its prospect lists. Alex Bregman is Houston’s new No. 1. How he merits a higher spot than Brett Phillips (No. 2), I have no idea. Anyway, you can certainly see the Astros top prospects list at your convenience right here. But those farmhands aren’t the ones I want to mention. No, I want to look at those diamonds in the rough. Here’s a short list to keep your eye one.

Tyler White, 24 at AAA, DH. He’s hitting .402 in 20 games at Fresno after hitting .284 in 59 games at Corpus.

Jamie Ritchie, 22 at Lancaster, C. His career OPS is .854. If he can play some defense, he might be why Jacob Nottingham was seen as expendable.

Akeem Bostick, 20 at Lancaster, P. He’s struggling, not Appel bad, but struggling a bit, in Lancaster. But that’s after dominating in Quad Cities with 0.76 WHIP and 1.50 ERA.

Nick Tanielu, 22 at Quad Cities, 3B. I would like it if he were a year younger, but Tanielu’s .773 OPS has been pretty consistent since he was drafted in the 14th round last season.

Are you watching any diamonds in the rough? Who, who’s not on the top 20 prospect list, do you think might be that future MLB player who is flying under the radar right now?

 

So, there are a few things to consider while we ignore the nonstop rumor mill.

 

 

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158 responses to “Astros’ Update: We interrupt this trade talk …”

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      • Neither Roger, JP, Coach Knox, or Al would have claimed the group of angels that played last night. There used to be a group of motorcycle enthusiasts founded in Southern California that would have, however.

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  2. Some thoughts:
    – I really agree that the Astros have more weapons to choose from this season. It is maddening that so many of them can go cold at once, but when they get just a little help from the usual suspects (Carter, Marisnick, etc.) like they did last night – their offense can be a bit of a juggernaut.
    – Gattis is certainly not the usual body type for a triples guy (if I remember right Roger Metzger had the most triples in a season for the Astros). But watching him run, he is not a Chris Carter stuck in quick sand kind of guy either. He has sneaky speed, but yes it helps him if he hits it 390 feet and it bounces 30 feet back past the OF.
    – Beneath the radar…I would love to see whether a Joe Sclafani could get on base 38% of the time at the major league level. We sure have folks who could knock him in (if he was say in the 9th spot in the order). With Joe Thatcher gone and Tony Sipp the only lefty in the pen…Could a Thomas Shirley help out situationally? (Question – is he still injured) Would Mike Hauschild be the next starting pitcher to get called up? He is putting up good numbers at Fresno.

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    • I am personally inclined to say no to the Sclafani thing.

      I think he may become a sneaky good utility guy one day. It’s hard for any major leaguer to post even a .330 OBP when they don’t play everyday though. No way anyone gives a light hitting infielder a job every day, 500 plate appearances worth, if he can’t impact the game in other ways. He isn’t regarded future gold glove material, he isn’t particularly fast, he has no power, he doesn’t have any hook for a team to just see if that OBP is real. Besides, it’s easy to draw walks off of minor leaguers, their command is suspect. It will be a challenge to do it at the major league level.

      Sclafani just reminds you of Torreyes, of Shuck, even Grossman to a degree, yea I can draw walks against guys throwing 93 all over the place, but against David Price – probably not.

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      • All I’d like to see as far as Sclafani is concerned would be to see him get a chance to play everyday to find out if he can repeat what he did last year at the plate. At this point though, I think it’s pretty clear that he won’t get a shot with this organization. And that’s a good thing for him.

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  3. Under the radar prospect to be major league player- David Paulino
    A big righty with a 95 mph fastball( as a starter, maybe hits 96-97 as a reliever) and a decent curve, exceptional control, high groundball rate, low walk rate, high strikeout rate.
    A piece of the terrific bullpen the Astros will have on their 2017 World series team.

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  4. Ianetta’s home run woke Collin McHugh up last night. Look at the differences in his pitches and demeanor after that happened. With the very next batter, Collin was a different guy. He was angry at himself and took it out on the Angels. His fastball started hopping, his curve started dropping and his cutter started darting in on the lefties and he came in on the righties with the two seam.
    Collin was aware that he was unlucky with some of his early pitches and that he was being timid on the mound. When he grooved that cutter to Ianetta he got mad and was lights out after that. He stopped using the scalpel and puled out the machete. The Angels walked back to the dugout for the rest of the evening.
    Quall’s stuff was moving everywhere! Some of his pitches moved like knuckleballs.

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  5. Will somebody on this blog help me out? I went to a stat site and compared Rasmus’s defensive numbers, including dWar, to Marisnick’s for this season.
    Not believing what I saw, I went to another site and saw the same thing.
    Will somebody please check this out and tell me what I have missed! Every night I hear the TV guys raving about Marisnick’s defense, but when I check the numbers, it’s Rasmus who is starring in the show.

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    • Rasmus is a excellent outfielder. Further, his numbers are in left or right mainly, so he’s not being compared to other center fielders. So dWar is dWar against who plays at his normal position. Rasmus, a center fielder, will win that battle every time.

      Marisnick is ONLY being compared to other CFers, because that’s all he plays. That’s, defensively, a tougher comparison.

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    • I’m probably not the correct guy to respond here. But I’d like to see the rationale for claiming Marisnick as the best outfielder on the team. I watch most of the games too. Springer does it all and makes it look easier.

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    • It’s the three errors in CF for JFSF that are skewing it. Rasmus has a much smaller sample size and no errors.

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    • Most stat sites geeks all say the same thing – defensive stats can only be taken at the extreme large sample. Career wise – I am sure Marisnick is well ahead of Rasmus.

      To me a better stat than dWar is UZR. Rasmus is at -0.1 for his career in CF. He has been an average CFer his whole career. Marisnick’s is 11.4. Having Jake Marisnick in CF saves you 11 runs every 150 games more than the average CFer. Marisnick isn’t that kid from Seattle 2 or 3 years ago, but he is pretty darn good.

      Springer’s CF numbers are difficult to compare. He only has 134 innings in CF – most stat geeks say the stats are too affected by a few bad balls under 1000 innings. But to give some credence to Dave – Springer has matched Marisnick’s 11.4.

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      • Steven, if you believe in UZR then give me the UZR numbers for each of them this year. That is what I am wondering. The stats I looked at said Rasmus has been better than Jake “this year” defensively. What does UZR say?

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      • But – thats the problem with short sample. I think stats are very resultive but not always predictive. Rasmus has outperformed Marisnick in center so far this year – but its game 7 of the world series, you are up by 1 run in the 9th, and the leadoff hitter smokes one to center. If I used short sample it would suggest I would rather have a guy named Rasmus out there – but in reality, because I know short sample can be skewered – I’ll still take Marisnick for that play.

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  6. I have always struggled with what is a truly meaningful defensive measurement. Sometimes I think it is one spot where the eyeball test might be superior to any number set.
    For instance, in 2014, George Springer’s dwar = -0.4. By that stat the only positional players who were worse on the whole team were Carter, Singleton and Fowler.
    Basically, when Springer came up he had problems in RF (he had not been playing there) and had 5 errors in his first 14 games. So his total of 7 errors for his 1/2 season looked really bad for an OF. However, after he settled in he was the best OF out there.

    I would like to propose that we apply the OC stat to all players when it comes to fielding. This measures the number of times we say “Oh Crap!” when a ball is hit near each fielder. The smaller the number, the better the fielder. Seems simple to me.

    The OW factor – the number of times we say Oh Wow! after seeing a fielder make another amazing play would be another way of measuring their aptitude. For the Astros this could be known as the OCC (Oh Carlos Correa!) or OGS (Oh George Springer!) factor out of respect for the number of times they pop our eyeballs…

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  7. The stats can always be skewed one way or the other to a certain extent, depending on what you’re looking for and what point you’re trying to make. Last week I mentioned that Jake was tied for 5th in the league for centerfielder assists. That’s a solid stat, especially since early on, his arm was far from accurate. I also noted that his overall defensive stats when compared to other centerfielders in the league are middle of the road. And I did qualify that by saying in my own belief, defensive metrics are not the most reliable stats in baseball, especially with relatively small samples. But those are the stats.

    I think Jake is an excellent outfielder. He can certainly improve though, especially on the routes he takes at times. I also think he’s an even better base runner. But unfortunately, he can’t hit yet. He can’t even bunt well.

    I’ll add one more somewhat skewed stat. Jakes OPS since the end of April is less than half of what Domingo Santana has produced year to date in Fresno. Sorry, one more: On the season, Jake is hitting .174 with a .190 OBP against lefties. How much longer can his role be justified on this team? I know Domingo can give us much more than that.

    I’ll say this though. Jake has a great PR team. Our announcers love him. They continually comment about his remarkable work in center. But they somehow avoid discussing, even in passing, his equally remarkable inability to hit a baseball. That’s where Rasmus comes in. He’s more than qualified playing center. It’s time to give Domingo a real shot playing left and right depending on who’s starting. and when Springer gets back, you’ve got him, Tucker, Rasmus, Santana and Jake late if there is room for five outfielders. Let’s get another bat in the line up.

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    • Perhaps – and I am just spit balling here – but perhaps the team leaders are trying to bring back the Astro fans who are dead set on the Astros re-joining the National league by starting a guy who hits like most of our pitchers in the 9th spot in the lineup.

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  8. Crane bought the entire team, and broadcasting crew a cool navy blue jackets, I asume to travel in. No trout tonight!! ESPN will carry the game tonight. Marisnick is just getting started on a very good career as a great center fielder!! I’ll take him in center everyday and twice on Sunday. Period!!

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  10. When this night is over:
    1. may Carlos Correa be batting over .300 [and may he never look back] ;
    2. may either Carlos Correa or Preston Tucker reach double-digits in MLB HRs;
    3. may Evan Gattis have 8 or more triples and have at least 60 RBIs;
    4. may Jon Singleton have hit for the cycle in a major league game;
    5. may Jose Altuve have set a new personal record for RBIs in a game;
    6. may Lance McCullers have set a new personal record for strikeouts; and
    7. may the Houston Astros be in sole possession of 1st place in the AL West.

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    • I am just touched by Cashner’s travels from SD to Houston to be with his mom who is fighting for her life. He has been a real bad luck pitcher this year. There have been 19 unearned runs behind him that have made his record look a whole lot worse than it should.

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  14. As to defensive metrics, I have no idea how some of the advanced ones are calculated. But some defensive metrics are skewed to the reverse. One example (Caught Stealing) is two of the worst catchers in MLB would be Posey and Molina. Molina has thrown out only 16 and Posey 15. Derrick Norris leads the league with 31. Until you see that teams do not run on them. The same thing is true in the OF. When teams run on you, you will get more OF assists. Tucker will be seeing that until he throws more out. (If he can). If I were to choose who I would want to “to go get the ball.” It would be Springer #1 and JFSF #2. But if you add the “and then throw” it is Springer #1 with Rasmus #2. But if you want to rotate JFSF, Springer, Rasmus & Tucker in the OF – I have no issue with any of the 4 playing any night.

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    • My only gripe was that aaltuve was looking in to the plate instead of just straight stealing. He had the bag if not for that…and the throw was bad to boot. The run down play makes little sense with Tucker at the plate.

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      • Hamel’s is going to get a good taste of our Texas heat, when he has to pitch at their park when it’s 115 degrees on the field. Oh well…….he’s their drama king now, and Jon Daniels will be paying him for a looong time.

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    • If the reports are accurate the Rangers gave up 5 top prospects, with 3 of them in the MLB top 100. Hamels will make the rotation strong next year, but the Rangers appears to have paid a heavy price.

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  19. I’d love to know who luhnow had planned to trade for Hamel’s. The deadline is not over yet……we might be losing some good players in the next 36hrs.

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      • Not only that, but after Devenski got mauled in 4.2 innings tonight, Feliz came in and threw 4.1 hitless, walkless, runless innings in relief and got the win when CC scored 3 in the eighth and won 7-6.

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  21. Hey nice win but I hate it when closers pitch with a big lead. They never seem to do well.
    A good mix of late hitting and pitching (before the 9th).

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  23. So, Texas gets Hamels, a bullpen piece and cash.

    The Phillies get a crappy reliever, a AAA pitcher who is organizational depth and four prospects ranked No. 4, No. 5, No. 6 and No. 17 in their system. You can read the details elsewhere, but it’d be the equivalent of Houston giving up Daz Cameron, Kyle Tucker, Vincent Velasquez and Riley Farrell.

    Uh, pass.

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    • Roberto did some nice things for the Astros, but he was well compensated for it. Sure would like for him to actually work out and get himself in shape.

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  26. I’m not a big fan of awards, other than the HOF when it is given to guys who deserve it. What I am a fan of is gratitude and I am very grateful for the job AJ Hinch has done managing the Astros. Thanks coach. You have done a wonderful job.

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  27. Colin Moran has had at least 1 hit in 20 of his last 21 games and drew a walk in the game he failed to get a hit in. He’s hitting .347 in the month of July.
    Despite being 2 years younger than the mean age of every minor league he has played in he has hit between .295 and .300 at every level. I think he is going to be a decent major league hitter. He won’t be 23 until October.

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  28. Chris Carter is 3 for 6 against Shoemaker with a double and two homers. Tonight’s lineup will be interesting.
    I have a real long day ahead of me. You all be good.

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  30. Well I’ll say it. Another great outing by McCullers! Is there a better rookie pitcher in the game right now? He’ll get shut down after 40 to 50 more innings. Otherwise, Correa might have some in house competition for ROY.

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  31. I’ve seen a report that Hammels was approached by Astros several times in last 48 hours but rejected a trade. Any indications on players we supposedly offered?

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    • The Rangers are reportedly giving up their Nos. 4, 5, 6 and 17 prospects. That’d be Daz Cameron, Kyle Tucker, Vincent Velasquez and Riley Farrell. Plus a AAA pitcher and one of their current bullpen arms.

      Needless to say, that’s a steep price for a guy who doesn’t want to be here.

      Sounds like a prima dona to me. I hope he loses 2 MPH off his fastball and his curve stops breaking.

      That said, the Rangers have given up their future for him, so it looks like they are all in for 2016.

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      • I wish only good things for the other Texas MLB team, our dear friends, the Arlington Rangers. May our fellow Texans come in second in the division behind the Astros for the next five years. And may the Odor of Hamels be to us as the stench of cold, dead camels forever and ever, amen.

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      • After seeing former-Ranger outfield prospect Nick Williams absolutely dismantle our not-too-shabby farm hands at Corpus recently, I for one am celebrating him moving to a National League system. Good luck, Nick!

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  32. I’m glad he didn’t accept a trade here. I think he would’ve been a bad influence in the club house.
    I agree Dan. Wishing nothing but the worst for him and the Rangers.

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  34. There never was a chance Hamel’s was going to wave his NTC. He has always looked down on the Astros as a joke of a team, and the record of 4yrs of losing over 100 games kinda supported that feeling. This team has come from out of the ashes of the worst team in baseball, to first place in the AL West. Hamels is better off on a team that he wants to play for, we saw how *making* someone play here worked out. J.A.Happy absolutely hated pitching for Houston, and it showed. I want to trade for a guy who has the same attitude as Scott Kazmir, glad to go to a team who has a chance to go to the playoffs! No hard feelings…….but as a woman I just have to get a last dig in, so I hope he has a heat stroke right there on the field in August.😈

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    • i have expressed many time on here my feelings on Hamels . Arlington perfect place for that schmuck and to give up 4 top 20 prospects, No friggin way!! May the Ghosts of Nolan smack the crap out of him in BIG D!

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    • It became obvious Hammels didn’t want to pitch for the Astros, so the Phil traded him to the Rangers instead. Big deal. If he didn’t want to be an Astro, I don’t want him, and I’m glad we didn’t trade a boatload of prime prospects for someone who wanted to be anywhere else. And I can’t help but wonder if he really doesn’t want to pitch in Arlington, either but couldn’t block the trade. I hope they all hate each other for the duration of his contract.

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      • p.s. If you can’t tell I hate the Rangers even more than the Cardinals….and that is really saying something.

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  36. A Houston-Style Ode to the Next Arlington Heat Stroke Victim:

    We tried so hard, you crazy lug, to show that you’re our every dream.
    Yet you were afraid each thing we did was just some evil scheme.
    A memory from your lonesome past kept us far apart
    We couldn’t free your doubtful mind and melt your Cole, Cole heart.

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    • But the second part of that story is:

      Id love to spit some beechnut in that dudes eyes
      And shoot him with my old 45
      Cause a country boy can survive

      You can’t starve us out, and you cant makes us run
      Cuz we’re them old boys raised on shotgun
      And we say grace, and we say Ma’am –
      and if you ain’t into that we don’t give a damn.
      A country boy can survive.

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  37. David price is a blue jay……and the haul Detroit got is eye popping. You give up three of your systems best lefty’s for a rental…no thank you!! Detroit wanted mccullars, Velasquez and thats just two who they wanted! I hope luhnow hung up.on dembrowski. I’m still hoping for a Tyson Ross and Craig Kimbrel deal from the Padres. Reed, Phillips, devenski, and Musgrove should not be in that package…….

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  38. Not sure why everyone seems to be so down on Hamels. The good news is that we, as free citizens, and eventually even baseball players, get to determine where we want to work. If you appreciate a democratic way of life, well, then that’s a positive thing.

    I think the best news, for us anyway, is that Cole Hamels, for whatever reasons, did not want to play in Houston. I certainly don’t hold that against him. And I’m glad too, because Texas potentially paid quite a bit for him. We’ll just have to see how it shakes out over time. It’s pretty clear that this is not a rental for the Rangers. They plan to sign him going forward. The other thing is that Hamels has had elbow issues, a hernia, biceps problems, a hand injury and other stuff. Steven, I’ll probably hear from you on this, but I think he’s an old 31 and I’m glad we didn’t get a deal done for him. And as of today, we’ve still got all of our favorite prospects and Kazmir. But I think that will change to some degree in the next few hours!

    So all in all, I look at the Hamels to Texas deal as a win for the Astros.

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    • I can’t speak for others Dave, but as for me, everything I posted about Hamels was totally tongue-in-cheek. After all, we already have Beltran and Odor to hate on . . . . 🙂

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      • Well I just added Hamels to that list. I plan to attend his first start here and boo till I lose my voice. He has the right to work were he wants but who would prefer working in open Texas heat when he could call a nice air conditioned ball park to call home.

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      • He’s Jon Daniels problem now…..
        we get to cheer for our FIRST PLACE
        ASTROS!!!! I don’t boo anyone….not worth my energy, or breath!

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    • I’ll take Hamels. Not for the price the Rangers paid. I don’t know what little naggers he has – I don’t watch alot of what is going on outside of Astroland, but he seems to have been pretty durable over the last 5 years. Once I saw the haul though – I have to be glad it was the Rangers that paid it and not the Astros.

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  40. The Braves, Marlins and Dodgers have completed a 13 player trade that will literally make your head ache when you try to absorb it.

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    • Basically, as I understand it the Braves franchise will move to Miami, the Marlins are moving to L.A. and the Dodgers are relocating their franchise to Atlanta. The players will all stay where they are.

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      • Lol!!! You are just too funny!!
        Essentially the Marlins shed payroll, and gave the Dodgers an up and down pitcher. Matt latos is not all that. I was surprised they didn’t go after David price, even if he is a rental. Speaking of the Tigers….they got some pretty dang good pitchers from the Blue Jays! All I know about the package luhnow put together for Hamels, was a LOT more than what the Rangers gave up.

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      • The most important things to keep in mind about the LA, Miami, Atlanta blockbuster are:
        1. not a single one of the players involved is either leaving from or headed to Houston;
        2. Brett Phillips, A.J. Reed, Joe Musgrove, Tony Kemp, Daz Cameron, Domingo Santana, Akeem Bostick, Chris Devenski, and Mark Appel are still in the Houston Astros’ organization as of 5:00 pm on trade day; and
        3. Scott Kazmir is the starting pitcher and Jed Lowrie the starting 3rd baseman for the league-leading Houston Astros baseball team this evening.

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  41. It does look like if anyone comes it will be Ross.

    Nothing against Tyson Ross, but I think we could get hornswaggled. He is pretty good, but probably pitched over his head the last 2 and a half seasons, helped out by what happens when you pitch in San Diego. His road stats are pretty good this year though, so maybe.

    Nothing sexy about this trade. If we get it as a dump, and give up very little, I’ll be very happy. Given the number of teams linked to his name I don’t see that as the case. You never know though.

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    • If we can land him with Kimbrell I will feel much better, but it depends on what we have to give up. I would not hesitate to include Devenski in any package for either of those players. Reed and Maverick are the 2 that I would absolutely refuse to give up from the farm. I would not include VV or LMJ from the major league team either (of course, this includes anyone currently on the Astros not named Carter, Valbuena, Castro or Gattis).

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  42. If we can’t get a decent deal for whomever for whatever, then I say we say no not ever, and let’s just wait till whenever and we’ll hope that good things happen and we can keep going in the forever.

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    • I am find standing pat. As it stands now, unless the Angels acquire another player, I like our chances to win the division with the team we have, but I would also be fine acquiring another SP and bullpen piece as well. If we could land Ross and Kimbrell and move LMJ to the bullpen the Astros would have a dominant bullpen for the rest of this year.

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