MMQB: Lineup, #1, GA/AO, the clock and LR

Ah, yes, a day off. it’s the first one for the Astros this season and it give Bo Porter, Jeff Luhnow — and fans — the opportunity take a breath. So, let’s take a look at some things in the news, on the stats’ pages and the land of speculation.

 

Jose Altuve is home. Please leave him there.

  • If the Astros have found 2-3 pieces of the long-term solution, Altuve — it would appear — is among the core. Therefore, it should be easy to plug him into the right hole, let him play and go about the business of finding the other pieces. That would include ending the where-does-he-hit-today experiment. Experiment if you must with the rest of the lineup, but hit Altuve second and be done. That consistency makes Dexter Fowler a better hitter and base runner and it helps whoever hits third settle in as well. Where would you write in Altuve for the long haul?

Carlos Rodon or bust?

  • Earlier this year, NC State LHP Carlos Rodon was seen as the consensus #1 pick for the Astros in June. Now, it’s not as certain, with some projections pointing to various possibilities, including high school pitchers Brady Aiken or Tyler Kolek. Why? Rodon has struggled in some starts, though his overall stats seem solid. Unless he falls completely apart or is injured, Rodon will still be the odds-on pick in a couple of months. Mark Appel, Rodon, Cosart, Lance McCullers, Mike Foltynewicz, Oberholtzer (add any other names here) is starting to have a nice ring to it for 2015-17.

Harrell on the bubble.

  • Fret all you want about Lucas Harrell‘s first two starts, but with Scott Feldman on leave for a few days and a 13-game stretch starting Tuesday, Harrell is likely the guy…at least for a while. Still, his offensive teammates could help. With early departures in his first two outings, the Astros haven’t scored a single run while Harrell was in the game. It’s not much better for Brett Oberholtzer, who has been the beneficiary of only three runs in three starts.

By ground or by air.

  • If you’re looking for a reason for the higher success rate for Astros’ pitchers, look no further than the ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio (GA/AO). The Astros’ staff leads the American League (4th in the majors) with a 1.36 ratio. That ranking is true for starters and relievers, signifying there may be a philosophy in place for the organization. For the record, Jarred Cosart leads the league (1.89) and Dallas Keuchel is eleventh (1.25). Chad Qualls (1.67) and Matt Albers (1.50) lead Houston’s relievers.

Clock may be ticking.

  • That other guy is still incubating, but Jon Singleton may be hitting his stride in Oklahoma City. The product of the Hunter Pence trade — shaping up to be a doozy! — has eight hits in his last 17 ABs with three HRs and seven RBI. With anemic hitting at the major league level, it could mean the clock is ticking for Jesus Guzman, Marc Krauss, Chris Carter or even Alex Presley. Singleton in the three-hole ahead of Jason Castro would energize the lineup.

And, a Monday lightning round:

  • Best player long-term coming back from the Pence trade: Singleton, Cosart, Domingo Santana, Josh Zeid.
  • Player hitting <.200 most likely to get his stroke over the next 10 days: Robbie Grossman, Dominguez, Castro or Carter?
  • Finish the sentence: By July, the Astros will…
  • One team ranks lower than the Astros in runs scored. (Hint: This team has hit only one HR this season too). Which team is it?
  • Which one of these players is on pace for less than 100 K? Grossman, Villar, Dominguez, Castro or Fowler?

 

 

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41 responses to “MMQB: Lineup, #1, GA/AO, the clock and LR”

  1. altuve should hit second and stay there period. by july you will see singleton and springer in the lineup. i’d like to see santana in LF once he is ready. 1. fowler cf 2. altuve 2b 3. castro c 4. singleton 1b 5. carter dh 6. springer rf 7. santana lf 8. dominguez 3b 9. villar ss looks like a pretty dang good lineup to me somewhere in the future and i think above average defense. pick three from krauss/presley/hoes/guzman to make room for the changes.

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    • Totally agree that Altuve is perfectly suited for the 2-hole.

      I think you are spot-on with your predictions about GSpring and Singlepuff.

      Krauss is not getting all the starts at 1B against righties. Very telling. He’ll be gone by July, as well.

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    • Springer is our centerfielder of the future. Santana has a gun. If he appears ready at any point while Fowler is still around, then Fowler should go to left and Santana to right.

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  2. Nice start to the week here Chip.
    – I would like to see Altuve somewhere other than the 3rd or 4th hole.
    – I pay no attention to college / high school ball – I have no idea who they should chase – it does not have to be a pitcher – though I think staffing up with pitchers makes sense as that is more expensive and more uncertain to chase in FA later on.
    – It would be nice to see the team put up more (some) runs up early for its pitchers. Losing 1-0 twice in one series is hurtful
    – One shift comment – Prince Fielder has to be hating it as the Astros were waiting for him a number of times this weekend – a couple sure hits yesterday taken away.
    – Getting groundballs is a good thing with Dominguez in place and Villar playing like a mlb SS. Altuve and whoever is at first have been OK too.
    – Pence trade looks like a super stocker to the organization. I rate them right now as Cosart, Singleton, Santana and Zeid – but that sure could move around in the next year or two.
    – Most likely to break out of slump? The best hitter in the bunch – Castro.
    – By July the Astros will …have to give psychological counseling to their pitchers if the hitters are still failing while guys are tearing up the minors.
    – Pure guess on which team is below the Astros in runs scored – Seattle.
    – On pace for less than 100 K – Villar?

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    • I’m guessing Royals on the runs. It seems to me they have been struggling mightily. I would have guessed the Reds, but they put up 13 runs the other night.

      I watched Rodon v Clemson the other weekend. I believe the game was 1-0 Clemson heading into the seventh inning, where they did their damage. Last year, Rod on threw lasers that seemed to explode late…the way Oswalt’s did. In this game his fastball didn’t have the same life to it. The commentators noted it was more frequently in the 87 – 90 range whereas in 2013 he was 90 – 92 with normal periods of 95+. In the super regional and CWS he was throwing pure smoke.

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  3. Only see the Astros vs. Rangers. First, for those Chron geniuses, it has been 11 days and Springer is still in OKC. Second, Altuve can protect Fowler provided he gets on base. Third, the pitchers have been spectacular, and if Cosart control improves – he is Hall of Fame material. Dominguez and Grossman must prove they are “Wallace” because, you can’t offer someone a long term deal and cut them in the same year. By July, SOMEONE will be hitting. He or they get to stay. K – Altuve probably because he is now walking at least on occasion. Finally, Santana is hitting ONLY .262 and is the WORST hitting OFer at OKC.

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    • One thing to remember about Santana – the average player age at OKC is 26 years old and Sanatana is the second youngest (one month older than Torreyes) player on the Redhawks. Considering that – his .262 BA / .763 OPS is OK – I mean he is 3 years younger than Springer / 4 years younger than Wates.

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      • Hmmm. “…the average player age at OKC is 26 years old”

        ——————————————————–

        Just noted this weekend as well that the Astros themselves have the youngest roster in the majors…averaging 26.7 years of age.

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      • My awkward point was ANYONE at OKC would be able to hit .189. Wates would have to lose 200 points. Yes, it is a small sample, etc. But I just get burned when you have to keep the same 13 position players, but move pitchers up and down at will. And change the batting order every 5 minutes. Why have a minor league team if you are going to find some silly reason to keep them down on the farm. I consider myself a baseball fan for over 60 years. During the last 4 years is the first time I spend more time reading about the minor leaguers (and love OldPros posts) because you just can’t get excited about the direction of the Astros again this year.

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    • I like Cosart’s stuff too, however he is not consistent enough with his bender. Way too often his curve is just hanging there in the hitter’s eyes. When his curve is biting and down, however, it’s just plain wicked. Plus fastball with good location. Good cutter.

      Definitely a player to watch.

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    • The 11 days was a count on when arb clock passed on him this year, not a prediction of when he would arrive. Still have super 2 status to pass. If HE was hitting .375 maybe he would be here, but that would need to be over a stretch of more than the 11 or so games played. Santana is young, wait and watch him develop. I believe the first post said “when he is ready”. I think Springer and Singleton will be here by july, probably sooner than that.

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      • I think this is a reverse grass is greener situation. In my opinion, Cosart comes in a few rungs below Oswaltin terms of ability. To reach the HoF he would need to rack up some serious achievements. I would put it more in the potential all star category.

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      • Boy, you guys are tough. Will not even allow a little hyperbole on a guy after watching so many basement rats for past few years. O.K. so he needs to do it for another 20 years, I’ll give you that. But he was not overmatched with the Rangers #2 team (with all their injuries)

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  4. I’ve got to see more at bats before I can determine where everyone should hit. But although Altuve has only struck out 4 times he’s still not working counts, he’s going up there swinging in the third or forth slot trying to score guys. In the long run, he’ll be much more successful being a tough out, and part of that working will be by extending counts. He’ll do much better in the 2 slot, and will grow his OBP. He’s also a good hit and run guy for Fowler, because he usually makes contact.

    Castro is off to a typically slow start against lefties, at 1 for 13. If he’s 2 for 26 against then in a couple of weeks, I start giving him days off against left handed pitching, or at least move him down. I think for right now, when there is a lefty on the mound, I put Guzman on the forth slot, allowing Altuve to stay where he belongs at 2.

    At some point, it will all be a moot point if Springer and Singleton and Stassi and Wates all keep hitting, maybe they’ll all get put on a charter and come up together.

    Wouldn’t that be fun.

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  5. Not sure about Fowler as a leadoff hitter. His swing is very long and loopy. Just not sure if he can make enough contact over the long-haul to be a plus CF. We’ll see. He clearly didn’t have his best series against the Rangers.

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    • Springer should be our centerfielder. But historically, Fowler is a better OBP guy than Altuve, so I’d leave him in the lead off slot. We don’t have another real option.

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      • hey daveb bet you arent getting snow or hail like we are here in tx. i think when springer comes up he will play rf and fowler will remain in cf. when fowler’s contract is up or he gets traded, then springer is cf for what i hope is many years. have a nice big drink of rum for all of us shivering here. cheers!

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      • A bit of a tropical shower, but no hail. If we should end up at some point with an outfield of Fowler, Springer and Santana, that’s the way I’d leave it, from left to right. I think that gives us the better defense. From what I’ve seen, Springer is already a better centerfielder than Fowler, and Santana has too good an arm to waste it in left.

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  6. -Now that players are healthy I think Altuve should be in the two hole.
    -If Rodon has lost 5mph off his fastball, there are better guys out there. Nobody wants to draft a guy they think is hurt at 1.1.
    -Harrell needs a good start or they will Humber him.
    – the ground ball pitchers have been geting their ground ball fielded well by the infielders. The shift and the fielding have been good.
    -I think the clock is ticking for Krauss because there are more righty pitchers and that top prospect at 1B in OKC is a lefty hitter, a better fielder and is on the 40 man already. Singleton is hitting.
    Thanks to Astro45 for his nice comment about my minor league posts.

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  7. NC State is about to pitch Rodon’s arm off……his coach left him in a game recently to throw 134 pitches. NOT a good way to treat your “ace”. Altuve needs to hit in the two hole……period. I’m perplexed by OKC having Springer man center field. If he’s gonna be in right field…….why not let him get used to it in the near future. As far as these guys not hitting, nothing much has changed from last year. No spark. Don’t know how you guys feel, but if this rotation (minus Harrell) keep pitching like this
    these guys could match up with ANY rotation in the majors. A real shame to waste
    the efforts of Obie yesterday,I keep reminding myself it’s only week three of the season………..
    P.S.Old pro…….keep the posts coming, you work hard so we don’t have to! 🙂

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    • Becky I love your optimism – but before the last series our staff ERA was over 5 and this very good 3 game series dropped it to 4.36, which is still 11th in the AL – and not near the top guys like Oakland (2.17 !!!!!! staff ERA) and Seattle (2.79). And the A’s and the M’s did that without facing us so far (a snide side comment on our hitting).

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    • By the way – the A’s have – Scott Kazmir (1.40 ERA .776 WHIP), who was playing for the Sugar Land Skeeters last season and Fernando Abad (former Astro) who has a 0.00 ERA and a 0.400 WHIP in 5 appearances.
      Just sayin’

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  8. So now I have time for the lightning round.
    -Best player long term from Pence trade. I’m going with Singleton, because he is the prototype 1B. Power, left handed glove, large size, and young. Also because he has been not moved around position-wise and is not a switch hitter and has been seasoned long enough to develop properly.
    -player due to come out of his funk: Castro because he will get more AB’s vs righties
    -By July the Astros will be out of the race and MMP will have been very empty.
    -Least runs scored- KC?
    -Less than 100 K’s-I’ll go with Villar because he is down in the order, so less AB’s

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  9. I agree that Altuve should reside permanently in the 2-hole but from what I can glean from Porter’s actions, I believe he will continue move and shuffle the line up regardless of who comes up from OKC. He doesn’t strike me as a solid manager and he seems to act on whim.

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  10. I agree that Altuve should be in the 2-hole…best suited for that spot now. I like Santana as the long term best from the Pence trade. By July, I will not have been to MMP again this year. And I think Bob Grossman will break out in the next 10 days.

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  11. The way i see it, OKC and New Orleans were sick of each other after 8 games in 8 days playing the same team. David Martinez, Bobby Doran and Darin Downs gave up 14 runs for the Redhawks and Springer had two hits and a homer as OKC lost 14-8. OKC shifts to Colorado Springs tonight and Folty gets to try turning his fortunes around with the start.
    It was one of those nights for Corpus Christi as an early error allowed a run and various CC rallies got killed by caught stealing, getting thrown out at home and hitting into huge double plays in a 2-1 loss to Springfield. Adrew Aplinn had three hits and Fontana had two but the rest of the team had only two hits and that was the game. Luis Cruz and Ross Seaton both pitched well but it wasn’t to be.
    Lancaster completed the first daily losing sweep of the season for Astros Affiliates as they gave up the lead and lost 11-10 as Rio Ruiz had four hits and five rbis, but Appel, Minaya, Hauschild, Osborne and Cotton couldn’t get anybody out. Those pitchers combined to give up 16 hits and 7 walks. Teoscar Hernandez had 3 hits and 4rbi’s for the Jethawks, too.
    Quad Cities literally got snowed out.

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    • Yep oldpro, but they’ve got a twin bill going tonight in Quad Cities, and they’re letting everyone in for free……not sure how the season ticket holders feel about that, but I wonder how many folks will show up? With an expected high of 46 and a low of 31 tonight, I think I’d stay home even with the free pass.

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      • So, are you flying in for that free doubleheader? You’ve got to be missing the cold a lot. You can ride the huge ferris wheel and sit in the comfort of the #1 rated minor league park in the continental US and sip on some hot chocolate.

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      • No, but if Harrell gets blown out early, I can switch over and watch the nite cap on MILB network. I’ll stick with the tropical breeze on my porch.

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  13. My bad Shooter, I got the impression that you were staying away from the park. I hope when you finally get there in August, you’ll see a lineup something like this:

    8 Fowler
    4 Altuve
    9 Springer
    3 Singleton
    DH Castro
    2 Stassi
    5 Dominguez
    6 Villar
    7 Wates

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  14. OK, here’s the big news. Springer called up and Grossman sent down. Grossman had a real bad error tonight, am I correct there? Springer had 3 more hits tonight including a grand slam. He will be in the lineup on Wednesday, his major league debut. Springer finished in AAA hitting .350 and pitchers have been pitching him backwards or pitching around him. The last week he has seen few good pitches but every one in the strike zone he has been ripping.
    Tucker had 2 more hits for CC but the rest of the team only had 3 and CC falls again 2-1. Shirley with a good outing but takes the loss.
    Folty had a good outing going 5 innings and giving up four hits, but Rudy owens and Lo gave up seven runs in two innings as OKC holds on for an 11-9 win. Singleton and Stassi w/ 2 hits each.
    Quad Cities splits their double header tonight
    Lancaster tied 4-4 in the ninth, Correa with 2 hits.Update: Kemp and Teoscar Hernandez account for a ninth inning run and Jethawks win 5-4.

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  15. Harrell just got his walking papers……….a year too late. Can’t wait to see Springer in an Astros uniform tomorrow!!! 🙂

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