As the Texans distract Houston’s sports fans with their (ahem) marvelous play over the past few weeks, it’s time to take a look at some ways the Astros can improve their team between now and spring training.
Before we start naming names, however, consider this: The Astros should be an improved team in 2014, even if Jeff Luhnow doesn’t bring in even one new free agent.
Malarkey, you say? Maybe, but with full seasons from Jarred Cosart, Brett Oberholtzer, Brad Peacock, Jonathan Villar, Brandon Barnes and others, Luhnow and manager Bo Porter should see a little consistency and stability begin to develop.
Now, while that may be a true statement, it’s also true that Luhnow is almost certain to add free agents to help plug holes, specifically in the bullpen, the bench and perhaps even the rotation. So, here are a few suggestions or possibilities as the free agent season approaches.
Bullpen. If he follows 2013 form, Luhnow may not be in the market for a seasoned closer. Indeed, the focus may be on relievers who can pitch in tight situations during any of the last three innings. With the seeming abundance of pitchers in the system, it’s not unreasonable to conclude the Astros may eventually find another Brad Lidge or Billy Wagner incubating in the system. Here are some possible relievers Houston may consider.
- Chad Qualls. Talk about journeymen, Qualls has played for seven different teams since he was traded to Arizona in 2008. But he settled in with Miami last season with a solid 2.61 ERA in 61 IP.
- Oliver Perez. Spent the last two seasons in Seattle, so he knows about a struggling team. Earned $1.5 million this season and could be an under-the-radar signee.
- Manny Parra. If the Reds pass on re-signing this 30-year-old lefty, the Astros should seriously take a shot. He earned $1 million this season and may have righted his career after a couple of rocky years on his way out of Milwaukee. No experience as a closer specifically, but could shore up the back end of the pen.
- Joba Chamberlain. Just call this a change of scenery for the former first rounder. He could get a clean slate in Houston and Luhnow could offer him the opportunity to start, though he hasn’t started since 2009 (167 consecutive relief appearances). Could cost a little, but may be worth it since Chamberlain is only 28.
- Plenty of other former Astros available as well: Matt Albers, Latroy Hawkins, Brett Myers, Brandon Lyon, and Jose Valverde.
Rotation. Frankly, you can make two solid arguments. One, the Astros should stick with the kids and stay away from free agents. Or, two, find someone who can lead the rotation as the transition continues. Either argument is valid. If the Astros do add a starter or two, the key is finding the right one. No more broken down starters hoping to revive their career in Houston. Forget Matt Garza or A.J. Burnett, but there are a few that might make sense.
- Scott Kazmir. The Astros reportedly talked to the Houston native last off season, but after a successful comeback with the Indians in 2013, a reasonable two-year deal might make sense for both parties.
- Josh Johnson. Hang on. Before you call him a broken down starter, the 30-year-old had some good key 2013 numbers (9.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9) that could be worth a looksee.
- Phil Hughes. With the Yankees already committed to a bazillion $$ and Robinson Cano the next mega-millionaire, New York may have to part with some of its pitching. Enter Hughes, the former first rounder who could be available reasonably.
- Now, if broken down, recovering or one-more-chance is your direction, here’s what could be on the menu: Colby Lewis, Tim Hudson, Edinson Volquez, or even Roy Oswalt.
That’s a quick look at the pitching staff. Later in the week, we’ll consider a few options for shoring up the everyday lineup.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
40 responses to “Free agent season: Astros have options for rotation, bullpen”
What gives me hope for a better 2014 is the list of starters we began 2013 with. Harrell, Norris, Humber, Bedard and Peacock. The we added Lyles and Keuchel.
Starting next year with Cosart, Ober, a new, improved Peacock and maybe a decent FA pitcher seems so much better.
A bullpen with Fields, Lo, Chapman, Zeid and Cisneros next year seems like a much better start if we can find a closer with some life. Last year it was Wright and Ambriz and Cedeno and Cruz and the old guy from Mexico. and then Blackley and Berger and OMG.
Please, not Oswalt. He couldn’t care less about Houston.
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I’d like to see a return to the 7-8-9 inning shut down we had with Lidge-Dotel-Wagner. I’d like to see two legitimate relievers, say Brian Wilson and Jesse Crain, for the back end and let Lo, Chapman, Zied intern in the seventh.
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Before I comment, did any else watch that game last night? What in the world…why is Ortiz getting a first pitch fastball over the middle of the plate from Benoit? He was obviously going low and away…but why? If you’re going to throw him a fastball it needs to be up and in on that first pitch. Even more curious was the decision not to walk Saltalamacchia in the ninth inning. His run counted for nothing. Gomes (who I think Becky suggested Hou should sign last offseason) was already standing on second base thanks to a Villar-like throw and Prince Fielder not wanting to put his stomach in front of the ball. Porcello should have put Saltalamacchia (a mediocre hitter) on first to setup a possible force at all three bases and possible double play. You then go after Stephen Drew and Will Middlebrooks. Once Gomes got to third with no outs you almost have to walk the bases loaded and take your chances with Ellsbury – Victorino – Pedroia, right?
Back to Chip’s questions, I think the answer can’t be made until we agree on how much we’re willing to overpay. Luhnow should have all the referenced pitcher’s agents primed for the start of the signing period. I would look to add a proven starter who can give you 125 to 150 innings just as insurance against injuries and as an aid to prevent overuse of the young(er) arms.
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UGH…….before we start talking free agents, I’d rather not revisit the former
Astros players for 2014. Let’s see what we can afford, and who’s available.
I’d rather not sign guys who were sent packing, when we were WINNING games.
devin_ I would have NEVER pitched to Ortiz. I would have given him a 4 pitch walk
and make it 5 to 2, THEN pitch to the next guy, and hope he fly’s out. Gomes has
“found” himself again this year, and I expect him to get a two year deal with Boston.
Snooze you lose. I don’t think the Cards OR the Dodgers can beat Boston, if the Tigers give it up. Veras lost that game last night, letting a guy get to second after one out, put the Tigers in a hole, that quickly got outta hand. It looked like one of the Astros meltdowns innings this year.
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Actually, Gomes had a significantly better year in 2012 with Oakland. And he’s signed through 2014 with Boston. I don’t see him getting an extension.
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I’m operating under the premise that four of our starters will be Cosart, Peacock, Oberholtzer and Wojoski. I’d jump at Johnson, but even with his injury history, someone is going to give him a deal, with incentives, worth 10 million or more. Might as well be here. It’s not my money. Kazmir is another possibility too, and maybe we’ll have a hometown shot.
Albers has not been very sturdy, so I’d leave him alone. Same with Chamberlain. He’s thrown only 90 innings over the last three years. Too fat. Does not stay in shape.
Jesse Crain might be the kind of guy you’d turn into a closer with his 11.3 K’s per 9 over the last two years. A cheaper version could be Carlos Marmol. Another guy I like is Joe Smith. He’s at home in Ohio though.
A couple of good lefties out there in Boon Logan and J.P. Howell, but why would either want to leave NY or LA? We might have a realistic shot at Oliver Perez though.
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Marmol…….really??? GOOD LORD.
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This is off topic, but I wanted to say how happy I am for Jeff Luhnow. Last year he tried to hire Strom but the Cards gave him a promotion to keep him. The Pitching Coach position trumps the job with the Cards and Strom rejoins the GM who gave him his big break in St. Louis.
I have read up on and listened to people who know Strom and I believe this hire will have big ramifications on the pitching of the Astros and their farm system for years.
I also believe that Strom will have a say in who the Astros acquire to pitch for the team in the offseason. He is a guy who is deep into the pitching community and its workings and the huge database he has combined with the huge database Luhnow has created are going to set in motion a precise chart these two will work to create. Together, with the guys we already have working on coaching pitchers in our organization, you are going to see the rising of a pitching haven with the Astros. Stronger arms, better pitches, better deliveries, better stats, better counts, better pitchers and better results.
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I think they need to get one veteran starter and two veteran bullpen guys to lead the young folks.
It would make sense to go after a mid-level starter (and this could be by trade) and maybe take a flyer on a starter coming off an injury.
I’m not going to throw out names – I think Luhnow and hopefully Strom have a better handle on who to chase.
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They should trade for a guy like Rick Porcello. He is young and can pitch a lot of innings. He could still be around when the team is good again.
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If we sign any free agent pitchers, please pick guys who can pitch AND have more easily pronounced names. Our pitching lineup with Oby, Wojo, and Folty are a mouthful. Single syllables will work.
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Appel and Rodon and McCullers seem to roll off the tongue rather easily, don’t they?
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1oldpro, now you’re not making a Tinker to Evers to Chance comparison, are ya? I’ll play along, though. I like Appel, Rodon, McCullers, but you need to add a little spice to the mix. Maybe a Folty or Wojo. But then, what are you going to do with Cosart, Oberholtzer and the others? Hint: Need a closer.
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Chip, I’m not eliminating anyone. I think Strom is going to help Cosart’s mechanics. I think Folty is going to be a top notch starter. and I think Wojo is going to surprise like Ober did.
My reference to Appel, Rodon and McC. was only about how easy they are to pronounce compared to the three that Yeah Buddy mentioned.
It is my firm belief we will have a much improved staff next year and we will have the best and youngest staff in the league in three years.
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I think with what we have I’m not so sure we need to look but I wouldn’t mind one verteran starter and one in the BP. We might not set the world on fire but the foundation is looking pretty solid for years to come barring any calamity’s. We’ll need some hitting so that’s where we need to really focus. i guess that deabte is coming soon.
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Zanudu,
We lost 111 games in 2013, including our last 14. That’s a streak we get to take into next season. While we might have a healthy and growing minor league system, we are still easily the worst team in MLB today based on our present 25 and 40 man rosters. Our pitching staff needs a lot of help from outside the organization if we are to avoid losing 100 plus games again in 2014. But if you’re okay with continuing to lose at the present clip and okay with a 25 or 30 million dollar payroll, then you are correct. All we need is some hitting.
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daveb,
No I’m not happy losing a 100 games or 90 at this point. Just trying to be realistic about what will happen. I did revisit the pitching stats and they weern’t as good as I had originally thought. I seem to rember us losing a lot of games in Sept/Oct because we couldn’t get the timely hit. Having said that, what should the plan be if we’re going to up the payroll to 40-50MM. Do you go for individuals commanding 10MM which will burn up that money quickly or try to get guys for 4- 8MM. Have to see what’s available. 30MM is not going to buy us a trip to the series but if spent wisely maybe a .500 record. Just that we have a lot of holes to fill in the batting and pitching.
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I would have to respectfully disagree with anyone that thinks this team will be much better with in house pitchers. Pointing to a successful start or a short stint of 6-7 games and saying they can be successful is how you lose 100 games.
Jordan Lyles has spent his entire time in Houston proving one theory – that ALL pitchers that make it to the big leagues are capable of having a good game, or even a good month. The ability to have a good season, one in which you keep your team in a game after 6-7 innings, maybe more, and you do that 25 times, is what seperates good ones from bad ones. I really don’t care about 1 start, even if its a complete game shutout.
I want to see the Astros move forward past a Lyles or Peacock. Not saying that a young pitcher should get a short lease, none of us are coaches, none of us are seeing the work in between starts, so we can do nothing but speculate. If Porter and his staff are seeing Lyles do a better job of spotting in simulated games, see him fool a few more hitters in batting practice, then he wins a job. If they see the same Lyles show up that pitched last year, and they are hoping for lightning in a bottle, they are going to lose 111 games again.
With the hooks we have in the minors, with the payroll situation where it is, if you want to make a splash, you call Tampa right now and ask them what they want. If its Singleton and Appel, you do it. The only guy that would make me cry giving up is Springer. You do the deal contigent that you can sign Price right away to a 5 year deal, and you make him the face of your franchise. With that hook, one of those fairly expensive starters you mentioned may be more apt to come here. You make an impact. You make your product want to be seen, and maybe that straightens out this TV mess.
The other option is to hope that Oberholtzer, Peacock, Lyles become better all of a sudden, you flounder with no ace, you lose 100 games, and you lose another 50-60 million off the value of a product that you paid 600 million for.
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So, after spending $6.5mil to sign the hometown boy, you trade him after two months in the minors along with your top 1B prospect, when you don’t have a #1 starter or a first baseman on your team. Then you want to try to outbid the Dodgers for his services, meaning you are going to spend $25mil a year for five years for a #1 pitcher. So for the next five years you have one guy making $25mil a year and 24 guys making $500,000 a year. with the rich guy telling the world what he thinks you should do with the other guys. and the hometown boy is now kicking butt for Tampa Bay at $500,000 a year for four years, while all the Houston fans are ragging that you traded him away for the big mouth.
And you do this because some guy said you can’t count on your top pitching prospects to come through. And Cosart, Ober and Peacock can’t be trusted, even though they came to a horrible hitting club and kept you in every game they pitched when you asked them to.
Your idea of rebuilding is not the same as mine.
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I agree 100%.
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So you are down for option 2? I lived in Kansas for 7 years, I watched the Royals take option 2 the whole time. Just one more year, this minor leaguer is looking good, that minor leaguer could be a good pitcher. I lived through this book already. We are heading for 4 to 5 90 loss seasons in a row, after enduring 3 100 loss seasons. You can keep your Royals mentality.
As for who informs my opinion, have you been around these parts? If so, you would no I have no problem voicing what some consider a strong opinion, but most will admit it’s an informed opinion. I am passionate about my baseball, and passionate about my hometown 9, but a realist. I KNOW the Astros are not players for Price, I KNOW they won’t get a big name free agent, but the point of blogging is to share opinion. Like my opinion or not, I wasn’t ready for my franchise, one that has better financial resources than the Royals, become the Royals. Yet, here we are, saying just give us 2-3 more seasons for these young guys to develop. Message is familiar.
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And again, Steven, the Royals trade their top prospect for two years of James Shields who does not get them over the hump and they get to watch Will Myers play for Tampa in the playoffs. So they continue to sell their future for what? The time to trade top prospects is when you need that player to get you there, not to get him to play a year and then get trounced by him in a year when he goes to the Yanks or Dodgers and you gave up Appel and Singleton for one year of Price.
The bottom line is that you have no confidence that any combination of coaches, current players, current prospects and current free agents will bring a winning team to Houston in 2-3 years and I disagree with you on that point.
I also disagree with the comparisons of the Royals(or the Pirates either) and the Luhnow Astros.
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And I’ll add, and I know I’ve been looked at for years by some of you as the negative nancy – but here it is. Am I happier with our prospects in the minors now then I was 3 years ago? Absolutely.
Problem is – all teams have good prospects they are happy about. The Rangers are a good team WITH good prospects still. I’ll talk about Appel, McCullers, and Folty when they are in training camp ready to try and make this roster, until then, 2-3 years is a long time. We’ll see. I am worried about the product on the field here and now. Sometimes prospects work out, sometimes they don’t. Is Wojo really that good? I KNOW Price is, he has a 4 year body of work to demonstrate it, so if I have lose to Mac or Appel, or Folty to get him, so be it.
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I’d write about 5000 words in response to this, but am forcing myself to keep it brief. I want to see the Astros have such an abundance of arms come through the system that we are injury proof on the MLB level and can run out guys that nearly guarantee a victory if we take the lead into the 7th inning. Whether the bullpen guys come from the system, free agency, or by trade doesn’t matter to me…but it seems like successful teams like STL consistently have deep bullpens.
Having said that, I’m hoping for another ace in the 2014 draft, but recognize the dearth of hitters in the system. It’s improving…but has a long way to go.
As to getting Price in exchange for our top prospects, I don’t see any problem with that idea. The key is valuing how much can be given up in exchange. If nothing else, I hope Luhnow drives up the price for any other suitors.
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Just found an article by Sports Exchange talking about Astros and 2014. Porter had a comment that I had not seen before – “I also think from an organizational standpoint we’re actually going to have to get some external options to help with that process.” He was talking about the young prospects coming up, etc. But Porter must think that trades or FAs must be needed to help the process.
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Steven,
I’m afraid that trading for Price will only make us the Mariners. As good as the system is now, we need to have minor leaguers blocked at most positions before we can trade for big pieces like Price.
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I too lack any real confidence. If we try to proceed with guys from within the organization and what current free agents we might have a chance to sign, then I think we’re looking at multiple more years of being a weak team, maybe not 100 losses a year, but sure, in the 90 range. I just have not seen enough talent yet. But I hope our GM proves me wrong.
That said, I’m also not prepared to do a Price type deal with the ramifications that would come along with it. I’d like to see what Luhnow will come up, assuming he really has 50+ million to work with this year. And as Chip suggested, I’d rather risk a Josh Johnson type deal too.
Totally off the subject, but what happens if the Stros go 0 and 10 right out of the gate in 2014? Does a 24 game losing streak get Bo sacked?
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I know that everyone here wants to see the team improve – sooner is better than later. The difference is in “the plan.” If I could see into the future, I would know EXACTLY what to do, but until then – we just have opinions – which is great. Saw this quote from a bleacher report article: “Remember two years ago when the Royals had the best system that most of us would ever see? That shows the volatility of prospects…as well as the poor job the team has done in using all that talent to build a big league team.” Lets hope in two (2) years, that is not being said about the Astros.
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I’ll see your Royals and raise you the Cardinals. When the Astros were shopping Oswalt, the Cardinals were prominent in trade rumors. Shelby Miller wasn’t going anywhere and all they really had to offer was projected fourth outfielder Jon Jay – not nearly enough for Roy. Lance Lynn was maybe a fourth starter and Mike Adams wasn’t even in their top 20. They were a system full of C level prospects.
They may become the Royals, but, I’d say it is just as likely that Fontana, DeShields, Folty, McCullers, and Aplin are playing in the ’16 World Series…for the Astros.
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It’s a good discussion we have gotten into now. I love having prospects. I love having good players more. In a perfect world, we play like Red Sox, doing both. Luke Hochevar was “untouchable.” They said this guy would be their next great one. Flash was right about Miller and Lynn, they didn’t draw much press as prospect inside St. Louis circles, much less outside.
The reason I like Price is he is a generational talent. Pro talked about KC making the deal with Shields and getting two years of ofa a 3-4 type WAR player and giving up Will Myers. I do have my untouchables like any one else. Springer is on that list, as well as Carlos. I also am no t apt to give up a catcher. But we throw around very average pitching prospects like Wojo and Folty and call them future stars – count me as a skeptic – you have no idea if they are the next Carlos Hernandez (OUCH), Tim Redding or Roy Oswalt. Before the draft we had 2 guys listed in the top 100 pitching prospects in the entire game. We may love our prospects, but you love them with rose colored glasses. I would assume Appel gives us 2 now given that Cosart was on the list but is here to stay now. If I can swing Singleton and 2 good pitching prospects for a generational talent, Cy Young contender, I do it. How else are you going to demonstrate to the world that you are serious about baseball in Houston? Wait until 2018 when Appel MIGHT be a superstar?
Flash – I would take being the Mariners next year as an improvement over the Astros of this year. I would also point out, that if you put me in as the owner of a baseball team in the 4th largest city, with the ability to market myself from San Antonio to New Orleans with minimal competition, I wouldn’t act like a “small” market team, so I wouldn’t stop at Price like Seattle has with Hernandez.
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Folty was the pitcher of the year in his league last year and this year. He is ranked #37 in all of minor league baseball in John Sickels latest top 75. That is not the description of “a very average prospect”.
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This is where evaluating the talent in the system becomes so important. We’re excited about some of the guys in system because they’re the best hope we have for stars at this point. Some may pan out. If you told me that Folty or Wojo would have a better career in Houston than five years of David Price I’d be skeptical. I still think Appel could make an appearance in late 2014 and make the full time roster in 2015. They wouldn’t have paid him the signing bonus if they did not feel at the time he could become a #1 starter and potential Cy Young contender. We’ll see whether they feel the same way as he moves along.
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A big part of this formula is whether you thought you had a good chance of signing Price. Otherwise you get two arbiration years the second of which might be filled with speculation that he is being traded. Is it likely that Price would forego his big chance to be a FA at a reasonable age, especially for a team that is just now bottoming out?
That part of the formula does not work for me. And if he wanted some kind of 8-10 year contract until his late 30’s – not sure about that either.
It is likely moot – we will be aiming a lot lower than Price I imagine.
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Steven, I agree in that I also think the talent in our system is over-hyped. Hopefully, my impression will change in the next year or so if I see a batch of young guys entering AA and AAA ball and having success. I don’t take much away from OKC winning their league. They probably had an average age older than most AAA clubs. A fair amount of guys that are just not good enough for MLB.
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I’d absolutely take you over the current owner. However, as your GM, I’d recommend someone more along the lines of Chris Sale. The cost is lower in prospects and salary. I think if we were two years down the road, I’d make the move for Price. Right now it would take Springer.
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So if somehow the Stros sign Jose Abreu, would it quiet the cynics a bit? 10 mil a year for 6 years or thereabouts? Certainly would get my attention, and I qualify as a cynic, at least to a degree. And then of course, Singleton would become trade bait. Chip, you hinted at a potential attitude issue with Singleton a while back. Want to expand or that?
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The White Sox signed Abreu today, didn’t mention how much money…….but the Astros fell short on the money.
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…and Brett Wallace rejoices
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Dan – this was Price’s second year of arbitration.
Any potential deal would have to include Price signing a contract immediately – so it would require a “negotiation” period. The standoff’s between GM’s and agents are getting to the same point as politicians – everything is negotiated by crisis. Give the Astros 10 days (easy to do during the offseason) to negotiate directly with his agent, if you strike a deal, you send them 3 prospects (not of the untouchable vareity – which imo is Springer, Corriea, and maybe Appel).
I do fear Flash would be right and Tampa would hang up on you if you don’t include Springer, and would probably kill the deal.
Not sure of Sale’s availability. He is, in my opinion, more attractive, but given youth, still in arby years, team control, the White Sox would be dumb to give him up.
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Also – Tampa probably won’t be motivated to move Price till midseason, and a bidding war will ensue. Will make for gripping ESPN!
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