Feb 6 2023

Baseball doldrums of winter

Renaissance Men Part 2 is postponed until your loyal writer gets more free time here in the next couple of weeks. There seems to be a bit more disinterest in baseball non-news lately, as stated succinctly by two of our longtime commenters.

  • “It’s almost leather-popping time!” – Mr. Bill
  • “All good here Dan. I’m just tired of talking about it. I’m looking for action!” – Uncleknuckle (Daveb)

Yes, lately, the most interesting thing on the blog or comments are Old Pros’ battles with a wicked winter storm in Oklahoma and attempting to keep the livestock alive and kicking.

The good news is leather popping will begin soon. The Astros’ pitchers and catchers report in 10 days on Feb. 16, with the rest of the squad reporting on Feb. 21. They then hit the ground running with their first exhibition game on Feb. 25 at “home” against the Mets. Then a little more than a month later, they open up at home on ESPN against the White Sox on March 30th.

In lieu of actual leather popping today, let’s talk about what will be happening during Spring Training.

  • WBC – opens the door for youngsters – The World Baseball Classic will be happening this spring, with games potentially affecting Astros from March 11 to March 21, depending on how deep their teams go. The assumption is they will gather a few days before their first games. At last count, ten Astros have committed to playing – Bryan Abreu, Jeremy Peña, Framber Valdez, and Cristian Javier will be playing for the Dominican Republic, Luis García and Jose Altuve will play for Venezuela, Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly for the USA, José Urquidy will play for Team Mexico, and catcher Martín Maldonado will play for Team Puerto Rico. There will be a lot of room for youngsters to shine, especially on the pitching side back in Spring Training.
  • But …..Not sure how much this will affect things for the Astros in spring training since, with their deep runs into the playoffs, they tend to not utilize their starters that much during Spring Training.
  • The Pitching – Regardless, considering the Astros will likely need a fair amount of starts from more than the six pitchers considered to be locks for the roster (Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers, Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia, Hunter Brown) all eyes will be on the top contenders to be next men up. This includes J.P. France, Shawn Dubin, Brandon Bielak, Forrest Whitley, and others.
  • The Catchers – They will get a lot of work anyway, but with Martin off to the WBC, there will be additional attention on the two young catchers Yainer Diaz and Korey Lee.  Will one or the other build a solid case for being the backup catcher? Will one of the other build a case for needing full-time repetitions at AAA?
  • Non-Roster Invitees – Had been looking forward to a Pedro Leon appearance, but he is hurt….again. There are some intriguing folks on the NRI list, including Ty Buttrey, who had been an effective reliever for the Angels before he took some time off. Pitchers including Jayden Murray and Jairo Solis, Infielders Will Wagner (son of Billy) and Grae Kessinger (grandson of Don), and outfielders Justin Dirden and Corey Julks.

Those are just a few things that may be on our plate during the 2023 Spring Training. What are you looking forward to seeing?

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51 comments on “Baseball doldrums of winter”

  2. I plan to visit a couple of games in West Palm, mid March. I think Yanier offers considerable promise to the Astros. He could give Maldonada a day off during these many weeks of the summer, plus first base here and there and be another choice at DH and pinch hitter. I would keep Lee at AAA unless Maldonada gets hurt.

    I look forward to seeing these AAA pitchers and also Will Wagner and Dirden.

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  3. Pre 2020 when everything got screwed up, Diaz was exclusively a catcher prospect with the Indian organization. He did not play other positions. And he threw out 90 of 209 would be base stealers, a 43% gun down rate. Now we see that people are writing about him playing defensive. We already know he can hit. Maybe he should have been be a top 100 prospect all along.

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  4. I think Ty Buttrey is an interesting proposition. 96 fastball. 82 slider. He has gotten guys out for brief stretches. And back in the day, he was a starter. But he got pretty good at striking guys out as a reliever. Not sure if there could be a more positive place than Houston to refind his passion for the game. And I’m sure the nerds already have a new plan for him.

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  5. I don’t know who else is on the Dominican Republic team for the WBC, but Framber, Javier, Pena and Abreu are a nice start from the Astros alone. Three very good pitchers and the ALCS/WS MVP.

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  6. I am hopeful that since there are 18 (18!!) relievers on the Dominican Republic’s roster our starters won’t pitch that many innings.
    On the other hand I note that 3 of those relievers are Astros – Abreu, Hector Neris and Rafael Montero…..

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  7. Doldrums pretty much says it here. Just sitting around and marking the days off the calendar until the games start. Even Spring Training is anticipated. Spent a week out west skiing and even with that I had to follow what the latest Chipalattan’s are saying. Just finished watching the “Stone Cold Astros” podcast which I always find entertaining and informative (hopefully most feel the same). I subscribe to You Tube and was notified last week that they will not be carrying MLB games since they were not able to come to an agreement with MLB. It’s always about the money. However, I’ll still have my Astros MLB subscription which also goes up every year but still gives me hours of baseball viewing. Just looking forward to the guys play that are invited to ST so we can see what they have to offer. In the meantime I’ll keep marking those days off the calendar.

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  8. I’ve watched Yordan’s home run at least a hundred times.
    Looked up Altuve’s and Bregman’s career stats numerous time to confirm their position in the baseball world.
    I constantly monitor the luxury tax status of the top 15 teams. The Astros are 13th there, currently.
    I notice stuff like Josh James and Will Smith not yet signed by anybody.
    How many pictures of Yankees and Mets can get plastered on the top ESPN articles? Almost every day.
    How many teams can boast a pitching prospect who has been on a top 10 list for seven years but has thrown only 237 innings in those seven years, none in MLB? Truly scrumptious!
    Yes, it’s doldrums. But, I still love it.

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  11. In my doldrums, I’m interested in seeing:
    * If the Astros are going to turn Shawn Dubin into a reliever. It appeared that was starting to happen late last season.
    * If Scott Schreiber has improved his spot in the Astros organization as a result of his performance in the Arizona Fall League. Same with Will Wagner.
    * Where #2 Prospect Drew Gilbert stands in his recovery from injury and surgery.
    * What The Astros plans for JP France are, after they added him to the 40-man.
    * Yainer Diaz playing and batting.
    * Joey Loperfido show some skills.
    * If Forrest Whitley has any chance to make it to MLB.
    * If Michael Brantley is ready to be a healed Michael Brantley.
    * If Lance McCullers, Jr is completely healthy and able to be a force once again in this starting rotation.

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  12. They said we just can’t bear another politician’s speech,
    so they loaded up the truck and they drove to West Palm Beach.
    Florida, that is.
    Practice fields.
    Millionaires.

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  15. I’ve read multiple pieces about Tucker’s extension. One piece was trying to nail it in the same area as Riley’s with Atlanta – 10/200 zone, with the first years being closer in salary to the arby numbers and the later years being escalated but giving the team an AAV on it that won’t hurt as much.

    I’m not sure what his agent’s mindset is. Does he think Tuck can get a 300M offer as a free agent and chooses to play these years out? Also, who knows where the Stros are at mentally about it. Does Brown and Crane think Tuck is going to grow into that escalated salary, or is it possible we’ve seen who he is?

    I tell you it’s hard to guess a player’s direction. But I would say Tucker, unlike Alvarez, is built like a ball player. He probably still has 10-15 pounds to go to get to his very best. If that big, wide bat path gets sped up with another tick of bat speed he could go from being a great piece to an MVP candidate. Heck, one could argue he probably already is on a few watch lists for darkhorse candidate now.

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    • Riley money for Tucker? The Astros have been very success at not going long, but for Tucker, yes I’d do it with little hesitation. Steven, he plays hard but smart too. He knows where the wall is, he does not run into his center fielder and he’s aware of guys like Altuve coming his way. He rarely goes head first. Is 10 for 250 reckless?

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    • I’m against long term deals that pay ridiculous amounts well past a player’s prime. The Astros got a bargain in the deal they gave Yuli. If you go and give an extension to a guy like Tucker based on such a short history you’re really taking a risk that he stays healthy and does not suffer any sort of decline. Overall I’m not against doing it here, though, but it’s mainly because we’re in a window to win right now and anything beyond that is questionable. You can’t build the team through free agency so keeping enough stability with most of your best players coming from within your own system will be necessary. Worst case scenario we overpay him for a few years while the team is in a rebuilding phase.

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      • Devin, good morning, yes, you are taking a risk. But when I see Tucker, I think as Steven does a well aging guy. I think he’s got 10 years of averaging 5 plus WAR figures. This is a guy with a 32% sprint speed who has stolen 53 of 61 bases. A Gold Glove guy with a 37% jump speed who might be the best right fielder in the game. Thing is, does he look slow on the field? No.

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  20. Things I think I think:
    * If Brown pulls off all the extensions I’m hearing about, I will be surprised. Doing it would almost be unthinkable, given the state of baseball today.
    * I follow baseball, especially Astros baseball, a lot! David Hensley snuck up on me and I don’t have a clue how he did it. Does anyone remember him being on any Top 30 prospect list?
    * I was hoping for the Astros to sign Jose Abreu when he broke into MLB. Hoping now that he has three real good years left to give to the Astros.
    * Funny how winning a WS Championship changed my opinion about Dusty Baker’s managing. I mean, Brent Strom leaves and the Astros end up with the best pitching staff in baseball and win the WS. The dynamics of that situation alone is a head-scratcher to me.
    * Michael Brantley loves being an Astros player. I’m pretty sure last season was really hard for him and I think he could really have a good year in 2023.

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    • Hensley was not on MLB’s top 30 Astros prospect list for 2022. Nor was he on 2021. But hey, Pedro “hots more like a kitten than a” Leon sits at 2 in 2021 and 4 in 2022. They really know how to pick em over at MLB.com.

      I actually did find him on a few top Astros prospects list for 2022 but even then, rated at best 26th. Baseball is a funny sport. Singleton and Altuve sitting in the minors, you think Singleton is going to be a star and you hope Altuve just contributes, and here we are. Who knows.

      I don’t really prescribe to pitching coaches being that important – but I will say – most of the current staff worked with him for a long time before he departed – and Merrill Kelly found semi-stardom (at least in Arizona) under Strom’s watch. They really had a nowhere else to go but up kinda bad 2021 as a pitching staff, but they still knocked almost a point off the team ERA for 2022. If you think pitching coaches matter, Strom is still showing he is among the best at it in the results of both pitching staffs.

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  23. Even though I would never have put down money to see the film “Moneyball” it has popped up more than once on my tv screen. After
    reviewing it, even allowing for Hollywood interp, it is worth seeing. I’m not smart enough about baseball to comment fully, although I’m guessing part of Astros success stems from this, there’s a lot to be gleaned about life in general as the film says, for which baseball is a metaphor, which we all know. Give credit to Brad Pitt for a pretty good performance. Overall pacing of the movie is excellent. If you’re in doldrums and your remote hits this, take time.

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  26. Well, football is finally over and the internet says the Chiefs are the champs and Philly is the bridesmaid again.
    The NBA is winding down and the Rockets have the worst record, for the third year in a row, but dont even have a decent chance of getting the top draft pick.
    Didn’t get to see the Phoenix golf tournament. No network telly here on the farm. See that Scottie Scheffler came out on top again.
    Spring training starts this week, right?
    Sure would love to see Bregman get another extension and tie up the left side of our infield for 5-6 years.

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  27. Law also has Gilbert, Barber, Melton at 3,4,5 and Dirden at 9 in his Astro rankings. All lefty hitting outfielders of course. This is a good thing if even one of these guys makes the leap. Perhaps the Astros have realized for some time now that Tucker might be tough to keep after the next 3 years.

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    • Can I jump all over your comment while agreeing with it?
      60-65% of pitchers are right handed and that hasn’t changed much over the years. Therefore, LH batters are going to end up facing more RH starters than LH starters and that puts them in a premium situation to produce.
      Then you get into the situation with LH batters facing same handed relievers. Baseball took some of the sting out of that by making a reliever pitch to more than one batter. Baseball also took more sting out of that by using the universal DH, eliminating quite a few pinch hitter appearances in games. The third way to take the sting out of Lefty Batter vs Lefty Pitcher is to get guys into your lineup who have the HIT Tool. Those who do have it are less affected by same-hand matchups. Case in point: bringing in a lefty to face Yordan Alvarez.
      Springer leaving, Rasmus and Reddick fading, Brantley aging and Alvarez eventually becoming the blueprint for a DH has put the Astros in the position of producing outfielders in their system, and the players you named, some you haven’t named who are very young in the Dominican summer league, are going to provide the Astros with future outfielders.
      Whether Tucker becomes one of the Astros core or a former Astros star will be determined in the next couple of years, I believe. By then, we will have more info on who else will be in the Astros outfield of the future.

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    • What are the chances of the Astros being able to claim and actually get somebody off waivers? I believe they are the last team to get a shot at a waiver claim.

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      • That is an odd one OP, though I will point out that somewhere in the last week I read that the Astros were the only MLB team with a 40 man roster spot open, so that anyone else picking Gage up would have had to release someone else in turn.
        I do believe that once the teams start spring training in the next few days a team could have moved someone to the 60 day IL to open up a roster space – something they could not do in the offseason.

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  29. Matt Gage, Parker Mushinski, Austin Davis, Blake Taylor … let the Loogy Games begin!

    Yanier Diaz, Korey Lee, Luke Berryhill, JC Correa … put on the gear, boys, it’s almost time!

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  30. Good morning. To my chagrin, the extra inning rule of putting a guy on second base to start the 10th inning has become pretty much permanent. This is one of those rules the Players Association supports and there are several reasons beyond keeping games going on too long that support the decision. All that said, I’d rather just end an extra inning game in the 12th with a tie score and go home instead of adopting such a radical change to the game. Course I’m older than most baseball fans.

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    • I am definitely in agreement, Dave. But I would say cap it at ten. if no one wins the regular way after 10 innings, just call the game a tie and move on.

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    • Dave, it makes me think about the NBA…which I stopped watching years ago. A couple weeks ago Richard Jefferson was telling a story from his early career while criticizing the current state of the game on TV. When he was a teenager in SA he got a single ticket to a Spurs game as a Christmas gift. His parents worked hard but didn’t have the money to buy more. His dad dropped him off at the game and waited outside in the car or down the street, picking him up afterwards. Jefferson’s favorite player was David Robinson. Getting to go to a game was a huge deal and seeing his favorite player actually play was the most important thing. Had David not played, he would have been crushed. RJ said they didn’t have scores of trainers, wellness staff, etc. that the players have now. They didn’t have mandated rest days and genuinely tried to play all 82. Whenever a game goes to extra innings, my wife refers to it as free baseball. That’s probably where the MLBPA is favor of these rules. Any extra inning game represents innings for which they aren’t getting paid. Obviously they represent opportunities to get injured, pitchers to hurt their stats (and therefore future earnings potential) giving up runs in situations they wouldn’t normally play. Personally, I don’t like the rule and would rather see them play it out. MLBPA could even use adding the old extra innings’ rule back as leverage to add an active roster spot to each team. Only Oakland and Tampa would probably be against that.

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