A lot will happen between now and election day…And some of it has to do with baseball

Unless you are truly quarantining yourself and have tuned out all social media, fake media, real media, TV, radios, signs, and smoke signals you realize that there will be a big election in about a week and a half in the Un-united States. But as usual this blog is here to take your mind off those matters and into things that are vital to all Americans…..baseball.

After a crazy ending to Game 4 of the World Series that was triggered by a hit by former Astro farmhand, Brett Phillips against a former World Series foe of the Astros, Kenley Jansen, the Dodgers and Rays will play at least two more games and possibly three. This means the season will either end on Tuesday or Wednesday of this week. Why is that important? Well, it means that the day after the season ends certain machinations regarding free agency begin and that triggers certain actions or inactions by your local team, the Astros.

So What’s happening in the short term? Well let’s assume that October 29th is the beginning of the off-season.

Thursday, Oct. 29. Players not under contract or control become Free Agents

For the Astros, this is a list that is headed by two players, who will be huge losses if they move on, in OF George Springer and OF/DH Michael Brantley. Beyond those two the list includes OF Josh Reddick, and P Brad Peacock. Pitcher Joe Biagini was unsurprisingly granted free agency earlier this month. From one view it is not a long list, but the fact that it contains the sometimes whole starting outfield (or 2 OFs and a DH) from this season’s team grabs one’s attention.

Oct. 29 to Nov. 2. Teams have an exclusive window to negotiate with their own free agents. Someone like Springer, who has never hit free agency is likely to want to hear what his worth is around the league, but as a touchstone may be interested in what the Astros think his starting value is. Someone like the 33 y.o. Brantley will likely not get offered in the free agent market what his stats say he’s worth due to his age. If he’s comfortable in Houston, he might want to stay, though he likely will see if the team will want to make a qualifying offer (more on that later). Due to his declining performance, Josh Reddick will definitely listen to the Astros, but they may not be talking or they may state numbers he deems too small to accept. Any discussions with Peacock will take into account how injured he is after barely taking the mound before breaking down this year. The guess here is they will let Brad go.

Nov. 2 or so. Teams have to announce which of their free agents they will proffer a qualifying offer. The QO is expected to be about $18.9 MM and means two things. One, if a player accepts it, the team must pay them that amount for the 2021 season (unless they subsequently negotiate a different contract). Two, it means that if the player is eventually signed by another team, before the 2021 June draft, that the other team will owe the Astros a compensatory draft pick in that draft, the round based on the value placed on that player by the league’s rules. Reddick and Peacock will not receive QOs. Springer will absolutely receive a QO that he will not take. Brantley is the bigger decision for the Astros. He has been great during his current contract of 2 years/$32 MM and based on how he has played and hit, he would certainly be worth the QO in a normal climate. But the Astros may not want to tie that much up with him when they have so much tied up in Justin Verlander ($33 MM), who will not pitch for them next season. So, the best guess is the Astros will try to sign Brantley this off-season, but will not offer him the QO.

Those are a couple important happenings in the next week that may well be overshadowed by the election. But for the Astros this is the start of what may well be an eventful off-season.

66 comments on “A lot will happen between now and election day…And some of it has to do with baseball

      • I continue to think keeping Springer is a longshot. Someone will pay him more than he is worth. But I’m also not thrilled with our other options. Straw made no impression on me this summer and I was pretty high on the guy coming into 2020. I can see Robbie Grossman at 2/10 but that’s part of me not being thrilled too.

        Liked by 1 person

  1. I voted Yes because he will get a 3 yr offer and take the money. If he takes the Astros offer 19M (it’s not my money HaHa), we’ve shown no scruples over-paying by a few million the last few years, and we need to either get Marte or Ozuna to replace the 2 guys — we’ll be paying somewhere in that vacinity.

    What would invariably happen is Springer and Brantley leave w/QO’s attached.

    Astros can get Grossman for 2/10; or Marte for ~3/30, which would tide us over to platoon McCormick Diaz Leon and Straw through 2022.

    Last year, our comp pick was Alex Santos which was by many ranked #50 in the draft. We also lost the chance to get Bobby Miller Kyle Nocolas, who are shooting up prospect ranks. The Amateur Draft is still very important to keep the window open. Brantley should get a 3/45 so we’ll see how close that is.

    Other moves (cont)

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  2. Acquire James McCann catcher, the bat is too good to pass up
    Let Garneau walk, obviously. Stubbs gets back-up 2022.

    I’d push real hard to get; Mike Minor, or Garrett Richards, and Trevor Rosenthal
    Hard push to trade for Igelsius.
    I’d like to clear a path for Paredes to try Bulk Starter, and put a proven Closer Setup in place of Pressly in 2022.

    I’d be open to trade Correa for surefire frontline pitching
    Sign Andrelton Simmons, a much better contact hitter for fraction of the cost.
    He can play there through 2023, when Jeremy Pena takes over.

    Our Trade Candidates;
    McCullers Greinke Nova Abreu Toro/Jones Rivera (100 mph seeks control)

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  3. If we can’t sign Springer or Brantley or both (slim chance), I’d offer both a QO. Somebody is going to sign either of them. As it was mentioned, Brantley will probably get a 3 year deal and Springer a 5 year deal. Either way we get them for a pretty good price for a year or get comp picks. I’d also look at trying to deal LMJ, Osuna or Pressley. We don’t need a potential $20MM for a closer and set up man. Let’s see what we can get and get ready for beyond 2021. Of course since we have our Covid issues, teams may not want to pay the big bucks but I think it’s a given Springer is going to get a pretty good offer. Brantley maybe not but you never know. One final comment is the timing of Springer and Brantley. If Springer signs 1st then the Brantley signing becomes the unknown. If Brantley goes 1st then it’s another unknown if Springer will stay or go. I believe the Mets and White Sox have both made overtures to having Springer (or at least it’s been reported). It will be interesting.

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    • Z – remember on Osuna – he is an injury question at the moment. He has so far avoided Tommy John surgery, but there has not been any indication that he is ready to go. I think it is very likely that they will not tender him an offer for arbitration and let him go.
      If they did go to arbitration he will be untradeable I think based on the injury questions.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Osuna is not tradable. TJ surgery was recommended for him and he chose not to. With that and his previous baggage, I believe he will be non-tendered.
      But, remember we are fans of the most closed mouthed team in baseball and we will continue to know nothing about Osuna until something happens. The club would never say anything about his condition.
      Why would we trade LMJ? We need 5 starting pitchers and he is a good starting pitcher whose salary is not inflated.
      Why would we trade Pressly? He is a real good reliever and we need good relievers. We have him at a deal we negotiated and we have an option year to boot.

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      • FTR, not suggesting we trade Pressly. He is one of our 3 most highly rated players.
        Pressly #14, Tucker #18 and Valdez #25 overall leaue rank.
        https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/astros

        Why trade LMJ? I suppose it’s debatable, but my main reasoning is he’s not an internal grade frontline guy, whereas he has that kind of value in trade. I think we can get similar production from a 1-yr deal, and existing in-house (Javier-Urq-Valdez-Garcia are but a few candidates), while capitalizing on the ether that still exists. Seeing East Coast fantasy boards, there’s still a contingency who thinks he’s our best pitcher, for example. And I do not.

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  4. I was channel surfing and checked the score of the WS game. Just in time for Joe (POS) Joe Buck to say the only reason Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers) lost game 5 was because the Astros were cheating. If I could have reached through the TV I would have grabbed him and beat the pure T hell out of him. Somebody should remind Joe (POS) Buck that we beat them at Dodger Stadium 2 of 4 games.

    Liked by 2 people

    • I have to hand it to Manfred – the entire 2017 postseason the pitchers were complaining about the balls they were using because they were so slick the only pitcher on the planet who could throw a breaking ball was Justin Verlander. When you turn Kershaw’s best weapon into a collegiate level curveball it’s not surprising the teams weren’t missing it. Every time Darvish threw a slider it was just a spinner and got hammered. You don’t need to know what pitch is coming under those conditions. This will be forgotten now thanks to the Astros sign stealing taking center stage.

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  5. Stand in line Zanuda😠…..I’d just like to yank his tongue out. I’m still the optimist and I think Crane will pay Springer. If he was willing to offer Garrit Cole $250 million, he can pony up $150-200 million for Springer. Brantley might stay with a 3yr $60 million deal…..don’t you love how I’m spending Cranes money! As for Reddick I doubt he will get anything but a minor league deal. As much as I really liked him….you gotta hit the ball.
    I’m sure the moves Click makes, or doesn’t make are going to make some of us pretty mad, but it’s not our money and it’s not our team….we’re just fans.

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  6. An article in MLBTR tonight describes Dan Straily as “arguably” the best pitcher in the Korean Baseball organization.
    That tells us a lot about the Korean Baseball Organization.

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  7. My uneducated guess: I think we offer Springer 4/$100M. He will turn it down thinking (correctly) that NYM, CWS or some other team will offer him 5/$125M and we get the draft pick from the QO.

    We will offer Brantley the QO and he will take it (if not we sign a FA).

    Aledmys, Straw, McCormick, etc. will battle for the 3rd/4th/5th OF spots. We won’t need much offense from them because hopefully Altuve, Bregman, Gurriel & Yordan will bounce back to their “normal” production.

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    • I guess these players don’t consider the high taxes that they’ll pay in places like CA, NY and IL. No state income tax in TX but I guess that doesn’t matter. My reason for trading LMJ was that the belief is that he will bolt after 2021. I suspect he’ll be looking for 10MM in arbitration next season. At best he’s a MOR type guy IMO. As for Pressley he’s not the hard throwing closer I want out there to close. So is he worth 8.75MM as a set up guy. I think Click will be looking at a lot of players who likely won’t be staying around and get what you can for them while you still have them. I don’t see JV or Greinke here after 2021 and so begins the era of Click. Just a lot of unknowns for next year and beyond.

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      • I don’t think Lance gets 10 million. He’s been erratic. He’s been dominating. Just off TJ surgery. I’m not sure who you replace him with for the money. He’s an important part of the rotation at value next year. Assuming good health, three of our starters in 2021 will have a total of 300 innings lifetime between them. Collectively, they’ll be getting less than 2 million. And any one of them could take a step back. I’m thinking Grienke is a significant enough question mark that moving Lance would be hazardous.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Z, if I were to make multi-millions of dollars, I would not care if I had to spend an extra million for taxes. But then, I am on the wrong side of 60 also…

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  8. If the goal is to resign George Springer I’m not sure giving him a QO is your best tactic. Sure, Luhnow is gone, but the man writing the checks who kept him playing in AAA longer than necessary is still there. If you give him a QO it immediately suppresses the offers he will get from other teams in free agency. If you want him back you need to pay him what other teams are willing to do and just accept you might go over the luxury tax in a few different years. Clearly that’s a risk that he goes elsewhere and you get nothing…but if I’m George Springer and the Astros start jockeying for position I’m just going to go elsewhere.

    On the flip side, if you give Brantley a QO he probably takes it. It would surprise me to see teams willing to give him 3+ years at $15M+ like the speculation is out there AND surrender the draft pick. The exception might be a team who first makes a big signing and has already lost their compensation eligible pick.

    Finally, lots of people in Houston seem to think it’s the Astros who have to decide whether to give Correa an extension. That’s 100% false. Unless Correa wants to stay in Houston with absolute certainty or he has damaged his marketability due to comments about the team and the cheating, he will go to free agency next year. I suppose there is a very small chance that Crane would make him an offer he can’t refuse…but that would be very surprising. Such an offer ends any chance of Springer/Brantley returning. Depending on what the front office thinks of Bregman going into this offseason you might see them work on such a deal. The Astros have to hope that the 2021 Bregman is back to 100% health and able to perform. I didn’t like what I saw from him in October. Everyone’s recovery is different, but he was not running well. He did make some great plays charging the ball though. Regardless, this offseason needs to see guys like him and Alvarez getting healthy for camp.

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  9. Let’s look at this again.
    According to Fangraphs, the player who contributed the least to the Astros from a performance standpoint was Reddick, at a minus 0.6WAR. That includes his fielding, hitting and his baserunning. Reddick is not going to be replaced by Tucker because Tucker was a regular in the lineup all season, Tucker actually led the Astros in plate appearances.
    So, who is replacing Reddick in the lineup? Yordan Alvarez. He is the guy who was not there all season and he is the guy who would be there in the lineup in 2021, when Tucker moves back to the outfield.
    Where does that leave the Astros? With Alvarez’s bat replacing Reddick’s, a big improvement over 2020 and a huge salary difference.
    Now you come to Brantley and Springer. Having already making a big improvement with Alvarez replacing Reddick, it’s Click’s job to find replacements for Brantley and Springer and have their replacement’s contributions added to Alvarez’s to add up to the Astros winning the division and advancing in the playoffs.
    Click may see replacing those two from within, but I don’t believe he does. I think the Astros will add two players to their lineup from outside the organization to add to an improved Altuve/Bregman/Alvarez combination and get the Astros to the top of the AL West again.

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    • In reality Yordan will be taking Brantley’s place as he spent the most time at DH (26 games) especially down the stretch, while Tucker (10 games) and Reddick (5 games) were the DH much less often.
      Bottom line we need two more starting OFs.

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      • No, in reality, Yordan arrives and Reddick leaves the lineup. That’s the reality as it stands right now in my comment.
        After another two weeks or so we sort out who else is in the lineup in place of the 2020 Springer/Brantley combo.

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  10. i’d like brantley back. i would offer qo on him. youre most likely gonna lose springer regardless, so i would give him a qo as well. i’d keep lmj – a decent pitcher with upside and a manageable salary. i’d hope to high heaven that yordan comes back healthy and stays that way. i’d keep correa and offer him the big money rather than springer. i love springer but he is 31 and correa is 26. correa is coming into his prime, springer will most likely be leaving his in a year or 2. i’d love to get rid of greinke’s salary. a note on correa. remember when we had shortstops that had great gloves but couldnt hit their weight? we kept them for their gloves as the pitchers really like having good defense behind them even if the offense is sub par. correa is gold glove quality with the best arm around and has a good bat that will most likely improve even more the next few years.

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  11. Since Dan’s post came out yesterday, I’m thinking he leaves it up at least one more day. So I will post my top 2 dream lineups for the Astros in 2021, all with keeping in mind that Brantley and Springer are determined to try free agency.
    #1 dream lineup
    Bregman 3B
    Altuve 2B
    Alvarez DH
    Correa SS
    Realmuto C
    Tucker LF
    Gurriel 1B
    Leon RF
    Bradley Jr CF
    My #2 dream lineup
    Bregman 3B
    Altuve 2B
    Alvarez DH
    Correa SS
    Puig RF
    Tucker LF
    Gurriel 1B
    Leon CF
    Maldonado C
    I am ready for the laughter or flying yard darts.

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      • I saw dream #2 as a natural result of the club’s desire to keep Gurriel on the club as a first baseman and as mentor to players from his country.
        My honest thoughts are that Gurriel is a hero to guys like Puig and might be able to smooth out his rough edges and get him to focus on his considerable gifts.

        Like

    • Nothing shocks me with those two lineups. I guess we assume then that Puig continues to mature while being kept grounded by his fellow countrymen. Leon though, I think the best we can hope for would be at least a half season in the minors. We could survive that though.

      Liked by 1 person

    • When you say Puig I see another Carlos Gomez. Sorry but no cigar for Puig. He just doesn’t fit in with our team attitude/discipline.

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      • How about after what “our team” has put us through this year, we don’t talk about their attitude/discipline.
        We want another chance to prove ourselves, so, let’s do the same for others.
        Except for Fiers.

        Liked by 1 person

      • I can see Gurriel reigning in Puig.

        Not sure if we keep
        1. Aledmys Diaz, or
        2. Go Mayfield/Tanielu/Toro/Jones instead, or
        3. Push them off and pay LaStella to play a Marwin role for 2/7mm?!

        But we could go the W. Havana Stros direction with Diaz again, Cionel Perez, Rogelio Armenteros and Yordan Alvarez as a few guys who could jibe back-home style, with Pedro Leon waiting and snuggling under Puig’s wing to join the Sept. callups! I think that’s a great idea to fill an OF spot. Give him a 1-yr/8 million, team option for 2nd year $10mm with HR incentives. Make him happy so he keeps us happy.

        But not too long, because Straw McCormick BDLC and/or Meyers will break through, with Barber and Brewer following in 2022-2023.

        We could offer Marte the same, and see which one bites..
        Last year, we let Chirinos and Maldy know we were interested. Things turned out perfectly because Rangers over-paid, and we got a great deal.

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  12. 1OP, in either of your dream lineups I would switch Bregman and Altuve and dream that Altuve learns to be more selective; walking more and striking out less.

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    • I, too once dreamed of Altuve being patient enough to lead off. But I believe Bregman displays the patience and good eye at the plate that Springer has but also delivers a lot of the power that Springer brings to the leadoff spot. Let’s face it, Bregman’s record of walks vs Ks over the years is impressive.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Bregman doesn’t go outside the zone too often. Altuve often makes you wonder if he knows there is a strike zone. People complained about Springer leading off, but he also doesn’t chase outside the zone. I think Bregman has more of a desire to be an RBI guy than a table setter, but he was a leadoff guy in college and could probably still earn his money doing it in our lineup.

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  13. Now we have the guy from ESPN saying Springer doesn’t want to return to Houston.
    So, the guy from MLBTR surmises that it’s Crane who leaked this info because no one from Springer’s camp would ever leak his desires, even though it’s Springer’s supposed desires that supposedly got leaked.
    What we have here is a guy definitely making a statement and then another guy eliminating the obvious to put a more nasty spin to it.

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  14. Turned it off as soon as the guy struck out. My ears were bleeding hearing joe…I know everything about everything buck, scream every run the california got.😠 My dream would be that he never calls another baseball game EVER. Now….about the Springer rumor:
    I think he still harbors bad feelings about the service time he got screwed out of. If he doesn’t want to stay not much you can do about that. Until I hear it from him I’m going to stay positive. Goodnight.

    Like

    • I was thinking about Cash pulling Snell and remember in 2019 when Hinch pulled Greinke and put in Harris and we all know what happened there. Then I thought about how Dusty stayed with Greinke in the playoffs and was rewarded. Sometimes you have to go with your gut and say to hell with the analytical BS.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Z – Last night I texted my boys saying the Cash-Snell move reminded me exactly of the Hinch – Greinke move.
        And you are right – Dusty went old school a number of times in the playoffs and ignored matchups and stuck with the guy who had pitched well. He did it with Greinke and Framber. It is the one thing I appreciated about Dierker – he would let the pitchers work through stuff and learn

        Liked by 1 person

  15. Here are a few things I do know:
    -The Astros have one starting outfielder, Kyle Tucker, and he had the second highest WAR on the Astros, according to Fangraphs. Tucker is a LHB, which is something the Astros need.
    -The Astros made it to game 7 of the ALCS with a bunch of rookie pitchers. A lot of people are discounting those young arms, as they are some other young pitchers in the Astros organization. In the upcoming season, where a lot of teams will be hurting for money, that is a very good position to be in.
    -Two extra draft choices in the 2021 MLB draft are going to come in very handy. The tiny draft of 2020 sent a lot of players back to college and they will enter this year’s draft and bulge the second and third days with some really good picks.
    -If Aledmys Diaz is not on the Astros roster in a month, I will be a very surprised puppy.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Good post, Op.
      Let me re-post this for the viewers to ponder

      HOU Astros Depth chart Multi-Inning to F/T Starters Full Season 2021
      SP: Greinke-Urquidy-Valdez-McCullers

      RP: Pressly, Raley, Taylor, Scrubb, (Smith)

      “Best of the rest Put the Best Team on the Field!”

      1. Cristian Javier
      2. Enoli Paredes
      3. Luis Garcia
      4. Brandon Bielak
      5. Jojanse Torres
      6. Cy Sneed
      7. Cionel Perez
      8. Forrest Whitley
      9. Humberto Castellanos
      10. Bryan Abreu
      11. Brett Conine
      12. Rogelio Armenteros
      13. Tyler Ivey
      14. JA Rivera
      15. Shawn Dubin
      16. Brandon Bailey
      17. Nivaldo Rodriguez
      18. Carlos Sanabria
      19. Peter Solomon
      20. Jairo Solis
      21. Austin Hansen

      With budget room after FA’s leave
      Seeking replacement; JV Osuna Peacock Pruitt Devo (5)
      1. Solid frontline, Division saavy $10M+ range
      2. Reclamation Starter
      3. Hi-End Reliever
      4. Two more relievers to try and break camp, or serve late season

      Also, have a working knowledge here to be able to pickup other teams’ surplus!
      https://www.mlb.com/marlins/news/top-rule-5-eligible-prospects-for-all-30-teams-c300531350

      Liked by 1 person

    • I wondered what they would do with him.. thanks!

      As savvy vets go, Murphy should land on his feet, though, if healthy.

      Just goes to show how typically frugal the Astros are comparative to the league, that they don’t get into many of those completely upside-down deals.

      Like

  16. Justin Turner tested positive for covid….but that didn’t stop him from celebrating with the entire team. Think Manfred cares?….*NOPE*. All he cares about is is beloved dodgers won. That’s all.
    Crane must be broke they told a LOT of full time employees yesterday that there are layoffs and furloughs coming. I watched Click poor mouth about money the other day….makes you think whether or not ANY guy will be offered a qualifying offer, especially since it’s over $18 million this year. My bet is no.

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    • Manfred was drunk slurring his words at MVP presentation, and he slipped by telling Seager he gave “us fans a thrill”. Sure did sound like a Homerism to me too.

      I suppose it’s possible the Astros don’t offer Brantley a QO.
      After all, what do Astros have to lose if they don’t mind paying that for one year anyway, as a bridge to the prospects? That decision is hopefully *MADE* soon, so we are not behind 8-ball if we want to offer FA, or make a trade. Plan B’s are our prospects, Rule 5’s elsewhere, and Pedro Leon and the International market. We should have $1million to spend after signing Leon for a reported $4million.. I can imagine if possible, Crane could trade Pool Space too.

      Liked by 2 people

      • Curious as to what happens if we offer Brantley a QO, he turns it down and then fails to sign with another club. Are we obligated to the QO or could we renegotiate at that point? I think yes but wanted to see the expert opinions.

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    • The financials have always been murky, but you have to think a lot of teams have considerable concerns right now. I’d love to see Brantley and Springer back, but currently am thinking the former is let go without a QO and the latter is given a QO on the assumption (and hope by Crane) that he can sign with another team rather than accept it.

      Deadline for QO is November 1st and players have 10 days to decide whether to accept or decline, so we’ll know something soon.

      I think the success of the young arms and a decent number of similar prospects will encourage the Astros to not be major players this December, unless it’s attempting to scoop someone up whose option was declined/bought out from another squad and therefore available at a lower contract than in 2020.

      Liked by 1 person

  17. If the Astros give Brantley a QO and he rejects it, the Astros will get a draft pick if he signs for multi-year deal before June 15th. Remember when Keuchel did not get a deal and he held out until after the cutoff date. By then the team he signed with did not lose a draft pick and the Astros got nothing.

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    • I recall wanting to “open my present early” all year, dreaming up who I’d pick when some poor sucker signed DK to a long-term noose. Up until the last few weeks I held out hope, but alas it never materialized.

      I believe we lost the 79th pick in 2019, because CWS didn’t sign DK til July 31. I recall thinking that Jimmy Lewis got picked #78 by LAD, the pitcher from Lk Travis, TX.; and OF, Dominic Fletcher was picked a few spots before, so that was my last recollection of what could’ve been.

      Then, Charlie Cook and those guys turned in the most phenomenal draft, imo! Hunter Brown Korey Lee Kessinger Barber Brewer Henley Battenfield Gusto Stubbs An excellent crop. Too early to start looking closely this year since we won’t be picking until that range again in July after both George and Michael’s QO’s *ARE* picked up this go ’round.

      Liked by 1 person

  18. A friend wrote this re: not invited to Fall Instructional League, and I think not. It is great news because it means *Blair Henley* and the rest are ready to break camp as NRI’s!

    “Conspicuous in their absence.
    F Whitley Has he finally screwed the pooch?
    B Henley
    T Ivey Still hurting?
    V Bellozo
    J Adams
    B De La Cruz
    J Brewer Hitting a wall?
    C McCormick”

    Like

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