Astros’ best recent draft pick? Correa or Bregman

Sports content in the media is a tough situation these days. That is why there are made up events like the Watt brothers playing tag. In the written word world of Chipalatta and mlb.com we are stuck speculating about the future or talking about the past. Recently, mlb.com posted the following interesting article that triggered a big question and this post.

https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/best-draft-picks-currently-on-al-west-teams

The article focuses on the Carlos Correa’s pick and the fact that it not only brought the best shortstop in Houston history, but also that it allowed the team to spend the money it saved on signing Correa to draft and sign both Lance McCullers Jr. and Rio Ruiz (used to trade for Evan Gattis).

What the article does not do is talk about who else they considered from recent picks and specifically Alex Bregman. So, we will do that here.

The Argument for Carlos Correa

There are certainly a number of reasons to look at the first draft choice in Jeff Luhnow’s history with the Astros as the best recent choice.

  • The team has a pretty mediocre history at shortstop. After five seasons with the team and only 546 games (about 3-1/2 seasons worth of games), Correa has been a revelation. He is now the career leader for Astro SS’s with 24.5 WAR (Dickie Thon 2nd with 16.0), .277 BA (Thon – .270), .356 OBP (Denis Menke – .355), .845 OPS (Menke – .728), 101 HR (Adam Everett – 35 HR), and 368 RBIs (Craig Reynolds – 300 RBIs).
  • On top of this, Correa has been a very good defensive SS with one of the best arms in the business.
  • Choosing Correa over other players that were thought to be better (Mark Appel, Bryan Buxton, Mike Zunino, Kevin Gausman) allowed the team the extra money to pick Lance McCullers Jr and Rio Ruiz, who were both thought to be going to college. McCullers has obviously had injury problems, but when he has pitched he has been a solid contributor at the major league level (29-22 – 3.67 ERA). He has also been very good in the post season (1-0, 2.53 ERA), including winning the 3rd game of the 2017 World Series. Ruiz was part of the five man deal that included bringing  Evan Gattis to the Astros. Gattis was a solid contributor during his few seasons with the team.

The Argument for Alex Bregman

  • In his 3-1/2 seasons with the Astros, he has already played 517 games. He is already the Astros 3B career leader with 22.4 WAR (Ken Caminiti – 16.7), .384 OBP (Morgan Ensberg – .367), and  .911 OPS (Ensberg – .843). He will shortly take over the 3B career lead in runs, HRs and RBIs.
  • This was a critical draft pick. At the time it was made the Astros had had the #1 pick in the draft 3 seasons in a row and really had only Correa to show for it. Mark Appel never showed any of his college greatness in the pros. Brady Aiken never was signed due to the results of a physical and the Astros were looking like they got lucky once with Correa. The Astros hit this pick out of the park as the closest other 2015 first rounder to Bregman to date has been Andrew Benintendi (9.9 WAR vs. 22.4 for Bregman).
  • As can easily be seen, Bregman has been very healthy to date – toting up almost as many games played as Correa in 1-1/4 seasons less time. And he certainly has not had the “unverifiable” injuries that Correa has suffered (back, broken ribs from a massage)….
  • Bregman has also shown the willingness to stay in Houston, by signing an extension through 2024 – his age 30 season. Carlos Correa could be a free agent after 2021 at the age of 27.

So, who do you think has been the best recent Astros’ draft pick and why?

 

 

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30 responses to “Astros’ best recent draft pick? Correa or Bregman”

  2. Oh and from the department of “The owner finally figured out he is an idiot….” – the Oakland A’s will turn around and pay their minor leaguers $400 a month through the end of the minor league season.

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  3. dan you are a stalwart with your posts. and as far as i am concerned (and i bet most all of everybody else too) you can write about whatever you want. you have written about music, movies etc. in here and i have enjoyed them all. i recall you liking breaking bad and better call saul. there is a movie (and you may know this already) called el camino – a breaking bad movie. if you havent seen it, i think you would enjoy it and if you have seen it, i’d like to see your thoughts on it.

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  4. as far as the topic at hand. i really like correa. i really like bregman. it seems that this question will be much more clear when we can compare their stats a few years down the line.

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  5. Speaking of drafts, I am missing the usual build up to the MLB draft. I am finding very little in the terms of mock drafts for the Astros for this upcoming draft. Any input from y’all?

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    • I’ll go with Bregman. In a couple of years his WAR will pass Correa’s and he will be the Astros SS as Correa will most likely be gone.

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    • It is such a weird year Sarge. The draft is only 5 rounds. All spring baseball for colleges and high school did not happen. The Astros don’t have a pick until #72.
      So I think all this adds up to not much interest

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    • I’m very interested in this draft. The Astros have four picks and if they come up with one of the four picks ending up as a major leaguer it would be an incredible coup for a franchise which has been ridiculed endlessly since December. I cant think of a better way to get back at all the AHs, than to steal a great pick.

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    • Resources, Sarge.
      Mock Draft —
      https://prospects365.com/2020/04/28/welcome-to-the-war-room/amp/.

      You asked for it! Deep dive each player in Top 81
      https://www.prospectslive.com/lists/2020/6/4/mlb-draft-data-influenced-big-board

      Also one of the best daily podcasts — Ralph, @ProspectJesus;
      FanGraphs’s @longenhagen;

      [GREAT job of covering the Carolina League @mikecschneider.]

      With Astros pick 72, and 101, it’s hard to predict quite yet what we’ll do. In terms of no word from our camp publicly, that’s to be expected.

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      • I truly appreciate the effort, really I do, though I am being specific in asking for the Astros mock draft instead of the overall rankings of potential players. I have been able to find these types of rankings all the time. DRAFTSITE.com is the only place where I have been able to locate the Astros’ specific mock draft.

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      • Sarge, it’s my experience you can’t do a Mock Draft unless you know who’s off the board. In the Draftsite example, the Astros will most likely NOT get a shot at Rosario at 72. Also, Logan Allen is likely to go around 77-ish.

        So, the question is: if Rosario is gone, who do you take if you think Allen will be gone by 101, and there’s someone else we want to target.

        Those realistic OF names at 72 are:
        Petey Halpin woo away from UT; Jake Vogel woo away from UCLA; Jace Bohrofen, a legacy at OU ($870,700 is slot amount for Gerrit Cole. That won’t be enough for any of these 3!)
        Parker Chavers, Coastal Carolina
        Seth Lonsway, Ohio State analytics dream

        SS’s:
        Yiddi Cappe, 17-yr-old Cuba
        Nick Loften, Baylor

        Pitchers:
        Lange; Winn; Brown; Allen

        For me, if Kyle Nicolas, or Harold Coll were available,
        I’m snapping them up no matter what.

        Draftsite says Baron Radcliff in the 4th. My friend filmed him in the Cape.

        Lots of talent in this draft, and teams will be able to sign unlimited at less than $20,000. Probably lots of undrafted players sign contracts this year!

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      • To follow up, Sarge. I asked about Radcliff (Draftsite 4th round pick).

        The reply was, “he could last that long — he is a good candidate to go back to school, and is more fascinating on paper than in practice, imo.”

        So, we’ll see.

        I would think that if we know for sure George is re-signing and Leon is a lock in Dec., we don’t go as heavily in OF direction. One name nobody mentions is CJ Stubbs. A former pitcher and slugged .621 his first yr in A+ ball. With plenty of catchers now, I think CJ is a candidate to play in the OF. If we were really needing an OF, one would think Astros would try Toro out there, but not once! A guy we paid a pretty penny for who fought some injury last year was Matthew Barefoot. Colin Barber is the best OF prospect in the system. And Jordan Brewer is lightening fast with plus power potential. System is chocked full, really.

        De la Cruz and McCormick with breakout ’21, I predict.

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  7. I loved the Correa pick more than I loved the Bregman pick. But I still love both of these players in an Astros uniform. I think Bregman has turned out to be more valuable, especially because of his extension, but I would love to see the Astros extend Correa and keep him here.

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  8. I think Correa was the better pick because it allowed the subsequent picks of McCullers and Ruiz.

    Also, comparing them as players it seems Correa has provided slightly more value : 24.5 WAR per 2362 Plate Appearances and $15,051,700 salary vs 22.4 WAR per 2238 Plate Appearances and $14,778,900 salary for Bregman.

    I’m glad we have both of them. We could have had Byron Buxton and Brendan Rodgers instead.

    Regarding 1OP’s list of least favorite Astros in the previous post, I agree with Mr. Bill ; my least favorite SP is Shawn Chacon, mainly because of his altercation with Ed Wade. I find this a bit ironic since Ed Wade is my least favorite GM.

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  9. I wanted to let you all know Becky is OK. She is at home but had a bad setback. She said she is in constant terrible pain. Right back where she was before the surgery.
    I told her we all love her.
    She will be in my prayers going forward and in yours too I’m sure.

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  10. These are extraordinary times for us Astros fans:
    *Maybe a season, maybe not a season, maybe a third of a season?
    *After a year when the baseball flew out of parks in record numbers, what changes will baseball make to the baseball? How do you build a team not knowing if you can rely on a consistent baseball?
    *The Astros have two pitchers with contracts of around $35 million per year and there is a possibility that they may make nothing this season.
    *The Dodgers traded three good prospects for one year of Mookie Betts and he might not play at all for the Dodgers. Crazy
    *The draft is this week and the Astros lost their top two picks because they cheated. However, those picks were absolutely last in each round so their chances of getting a stud player were almost nil anyway. They got a pick for Gerrit Cole and he will not have thrown a single pitch for the Yankees by the time the Astros get that pick.
    *Those venomous crowds the Astros were going to face may have to be satisfied with internet hate this season.
    *Forty or so MILB teams were going to be eliminated and the uproar was mighty. Now it has happened and there is nary a whisper.
    The Astros entire outfield is due to be free agents at the end of the season, and all three may not play a game in the final year of their contracts.
    Extraordinary!

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    • My understanding op is that if there is not a season, veterans will receive money out of a pool set aside by the owner that ends up being about 3-4% of total salaries – so for JV and Greinke that would be in the $1 to 1.5 MM neighborhood. Perhaps a shabby neighborhood for them, but not for me.

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  12. If the players reject 75% prorated pay to play less than half the season, fans will be incensed. And yet, the Baseball America comments all line up to criticize the Owners. I have to admit I was wrong in thinking the Owners would make the offer unrealistic, because they were going to lose money in ticket sales. (Maybe they can make up enough revenue some other way?)

    Since I’m in favor of equal opportunity for prospects, I find the players union a disgrace for demanding full wages in ’20. Those kids would “kill” to be in a position to play in the Show.

    First, players used Covid as an excuse even though they were debating percentage of pay, and now that the data is in — now that the riots have proven the virus is not as lethal or transmittable, and that it’s ok to protest but not go to church — they switch to the economics. Utter hypocrisy.

    Like a real free market, Let the players who want to play, play.

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  13. I expect the vote will probably end up being about 80% Bregman to 20% Correa. For what it’s worth, the only things keeping me from saying Correa was without question the better draft pick are his injuries. I’m expecting he will seek out riches in another city through free agency, but can only penalize him so much for this because the Astros handed Bregman such a large extension. Basically, there are only so many dollars to go around. We can expect they approached Correa about signing away some years, but also (because it involved Luhnow) should expect he was trying to squeeze a bit and probably offered far less than Correa stands to make.

    Looking back, that 2012 was a really great first round. I really like Corey Seager, Byron Buxton, and some of the arms, but Correa was squarly rated 5th to 8th best player entering the draft and in my opinion has clearly shown he is the best player from that class. I think if you re-do the 2015 draft there is a zero percent chance Dansby Swanson goes in the top five, but the top spot overall would likely be a tossup between Bregman, Andrew Benintendi, and Walker Buehler. I think Rogers is still in the discussion and probably does have a fine career ahead of him, but those other three have a huge head start.

    So my choice is Correa as the better pick, but if they keep Bregman in town for the vast remainder of his career and Correa leaves I’m certain that would sway me to his side.

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  14. On the subject of the post, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman are obviously both excellent athletes. I have cheered for both equally, and have no favorite between them.

    On the subject of whether there is a 2020 season – for baseball or any other professional sport – I confess I am ambivalent-leaning-towards-apathetic. I no longer have either respect or affection for any player’s union representative, any owner, any agent, any umpire (0r, for other sports, referee) , or, of course, for any league Commissioner. The product they offer the public is exruciatingly lame, boring, over-hyped, and overpriced. And in the hands of the current sports/media power structure the fun game of baseball that I have loved since childhood has, for me, become downright unpleasant, bordering on unwatchable.

    The only part of professional sports world I still enjoy at al is hearing from the good people at Chipalatta.

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    • So are you telling us you like us by a process of elimination of everything related to sports in the rest of the world?
      I guess we will take it

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