Today is a simple post from your Astro blogger and counsellor. Please, answer the following and your loyal servant will give you the correct numbers below:
- What are you the most confident about the Astros heading into 2019?
- What doubt or worry rattles around in the back of your brain about your Astros?
- Which Astro prospect are you most looking forward to playing in the majors this year?
- What do you think happens the first time Angel Hernandez umpires an Astros’ game this season?
- The Astros just signed Ryan Pressly and Alex Bregman to an extension. Who should they chase next?
- Are you concerned about any other team unseating the Astros in the AL West? Which one and why?
- Of the major awards – Cy Young, MVP, Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year – who has the best chance of bringing hardware home to the Astros?
- Outside Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, who will be the Astros next best starting pitcher? Collin McHugh? Brad Peacock? Wade Miley? Framber Valdez? Forrest Whitley?
- Which team is the biggest threat to a World Series championship run for the Astros? Yanks? Red Sox? Indians? Twins? A’s? M’s? Dodgers? Phillies? Nats? Cards? Other?
- Which part of the Astros will perform best in 2019? The offense? The starting pitching? The bullpen?
Thanks for answering these ahead of time…
Dan P’s Answer Sheet
- Very confident that the Astros have the right leader (Justin Verlander) at the head of their pitching staff no matter which five are in the rotation.
- My biggest worry is that Carlos Correa will never quite stay injury free and put up the transcendent numbers he showed he was capable of in 2017.
- I can’t wait to see Mr. Forrest Whitley make his MLB debut, which I believe will be this season.
- Macho Angel tries to squeeze A.J. Hinch’s hand into sawdust when they meet before the game. During their game everyone will be on their best behavior. Oh and Hernandez will blow a few calls like he always does.
- They should try to extend Verlander next and after that George Springer.
- I’m not concerned about any specific team unseating the Astros in 2019 as long as they take care of their own business.
- I think Mr. Bregman will make a pitch for the MVP this year but lose to Mr. $430 MM, and Cole will bring home the CY.
- The next best pitcher for the Astros will be Peacock (unless he doesn’t make the rotation….). How’s that for copping out?
- The Yanks worry me the most this season. The Red Sox are worry 1A.
- The Astros offense will return to the top of the majors. The starting pitching and relievers will be Top 5 each.
OK – now it is your turn.
80 responses to “10 questions for Astros fans”
1. We’ve got a very solid line up that will hit.
2. Middle of pen.
3. Stubbs, because I’m not sure about Stassi.
4. If it’s a home series, he’ll get it from the fans without mercy. If it’s on the road, business as usual. Hinch will be his normal subtle self.
5. Cole would be the most impactful one, but it’s not likely.
6. No.
7. We have two Cy candidates. At least three MVP candidates. No rookie that I see playing enough. Hinch won’t win it unless he overcomes an incredible amount of injuries and I don’t even want to consider that.
8. Peacock.
9. Sox are the defending champs.
10. See # 1.
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On a separate note – the Mariners are now 2-0 and the A’s are 0-2 after their Japanese excursion. Ichiro went 0 for 4 in today’s game and will officially retire after the game. If you remember, Ichiro worked as a consultant to the team last season, and did not play, but also did not retire.
He leaves with 3089 hits after joining the mlb at the age of 27.
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Ichiro was one of my favorites.
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Most Confident About: Offensive production. Our returning stars are healthy again, and we added Michael Brantley.
Areas of doubt:
1. Bullpen – I have little confidence in anyone there except Pressley and Osuna; 2. DH – Tyler White has looked pretty awful this spring; Diaz has been worse, and Kemp is much better at making good line-drive contact, but does not have the home run power the Astros like in a DH, so I do not expect to see him given a shot at that role;
3. Starting pitching behind Verlander and Cole – I’ll have to see a lot more of Miley to be convinced that he can replace CFM; McHugh has underwhelmed, and makes me really miss LMJ, and Peacock has the stuff, but has a long history of problems with command and control – even yet, I’d rather have him as our #5 than a Dallas Keuchel that tops out at 88 mph.
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Bregman is my MVP after hitting in the .340s with an OBP over .400 with 38 homers over 100 RBIs and 52 doubles. Walks over 100 times and strikeout totals in the 80s. The media starts mentioning that his big deal is a bargain.
And I may even be selling him short.
You heard it here first.
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Most Anticipated Debut:
Forrest Whitley. Maybe Nick Tanielu if the Shark blows the best opportunity he will ever have and drowns in a vat of pastry dough. Nobody else really excites me – and yes, that includes Tucker the sequel.
Expectation from Angel:
He is not an umpire, he is a vindictive tyrant. I expect all-out Astro-genocide from him, with outrage, blood and gore, and multiple player and coach ejections. I expect rants against the dugout, harassment of players on the field, and accusations of racism against everybody wearing or supporting orange and blue. I expect him to call phony balks on our pitchers when he thinks it hurts us most. I expect his ball/strike calls to be against us at ridiculous rates. In other words, I expect him to show his true colors, and get himself gloriously fired.
Next extension:
I’d like to see it be Springer.
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Concerned about our AL West foes?
I am not concerned about any of the other teams. I am concerned a little that we play well against each them, and take nothing for granted, because any team can beat us on any given night – and if we get cocky, and allow a string of ‘given nights’, we could see another team get hot and slip past us in the standings.
Who is our Most likely Hardware Burro?
#1 – Bregman; #2 – Verlander; #3 – Altuve; #4 – Cole, #5 – Correa. I don’t see any serious ROY candidates this year, not because of lack of talent at AAA, because, barring a spate of injuries [Heaven forbid], no rookie is likely to get the chance to shine that brightly over the extended period of time necessary to win ROY.
Third best starter?
My heart says Forrest Whitely; but my head says Brad Peacock.
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Biggest Obstacle to WS Championship #2:
I expect the road to the 2019 World Championship to run through Fenway, Yankee Stadium . . . and Minute Maid Park. I know there could be a few detours, though.
What aspect of the 2019 Astros will shine brightest?
1. the offense; and 2. the Blog-o-sphere (led by Chipalatta, of course)
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Bregman’s deal is announced.
10 million signing bonus
original salary for 2019
11 million per year for 3 years 2020-2022
28.5 million per year the last two years. 2023 & 2024
Potential MVP bonuses available if applicable.
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I like this even better – allows more salary room in 2020-2022 than if it was $20 million per year
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Sorry, Dan, just read that second note on the subject from you.
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Daveb – You only have to apologize if you disagree with me…….
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The 11 million from 20 to 22 gives the club a bit more wiggle room with other needs.
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Look a bit like Corbin Martin dealing up some Batting Practice dang. It ‘s just a rough day for the young man, he will rally.
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1. Verlander/Cole
2. Just that we are due for some bad luck
3. Whitley
4. The first time we see Hernandez: nothing. But the crappola will hit the fan later in the season
5. Verlander
6. The A’s always concern me because they seem to pull a rabbit out of the hat all the time. I think the Angels have improved.
7. Verlander or Cole
8. McHugh. He’s been such a steady eddie at doing his job.
9. Red Sox
10. I think the bats, unless that’s where the bad luck factor strikes.
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We have had the bad luck. Correa with the bad back and missing games, Altuve with the broken kneecap and missing some games, McCullers out for this season with his surgery, Springer with his hand injury last year.
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True Sarge, but that’s what I consider run of the mill bad luck.. I’m thinking really bad luck, where all of the guys have a down year, or Angel Hernandez calls all of our games.
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1. Hitting/run production
2. Back end of rotation
3. Whitley
4. All “you know what” breaks loose
5. Verlander, Cole, Springer
6. Nope
7. Bregman – MVP
8. Miley, a pleasant surprise
9. Red Sox, Yankees ( I hate ’em both)
10. Offense
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Interesting outing for young Mr. Bukauskas – 2 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 5Ks – but three walks and a wild pitch. You can’t hit him, it seems – but if you just take more than you swing, you might not have to.
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With that, he now leads the team – including Verlander in Cole – in Strikeouts; but he also now leads the team – including Miley, McCurry, and Valdez – in free passes issued.
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I still think the positives outweigh those negatives. Get under control and we might have a winner.
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Agreed, Z. Just nowhere near ready for prime time just yet.
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On another note, Aledmys Diaz ain’t shown me squat in ST. How about a more deserving multiple position player making the roster. Can’t say much more about the Great White which somehow has morphed into Tubby the tuna.
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Zanuda, from Tubby to Tubby the Tuna? That’s insulting! Diaz will get a long look at 2.5 or whatever he’s getting paid. TT will get a most of the early DH at bats, but Tony Kemp (does he have an alias?) will find himself in that role too if the Tuna does not turn back into a shark.
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two of my favorite nicknames in baseball were ‘no neck’ williams and of course our own ‘fat elvis’. i surely hope that tyler plays well and gets serious about his conditioning so that nickname does not stick to him..
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How about Tony “the tiger” Kemp. He just might be Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrreat!
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Z, need something more creative. I’m no help.
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Spring training stats…
In 2018, the three regulars with the best ST stats were:
– Josh Reddick – .357 BA / 1.000 OPS
– Marwin Gonzalez – .316 BA / .845 OPS
– Carlos Correa – .300 BA / .854 OPS
And they ended up three of the worst during the regular season. And Kyle Tucker tore it up in ST (5 HR/21 RBI) and looked lost when he was called up.
In 2018 ST – Tyler White (.191 BA) and Tony Kemp (.206 BA) were among the worst among those with significant at bats – but were fine during the regular season
In 2018 ST – Collin McHugh (5.91 ERA) and Charlie Morton (4.91 ERA) were not good, but were great in the regular season.
In 2018 ST – Joe Smith (1.08 ERA) and Ken Giles (1.17 ERA) both put up numbers they could not match in the regular season
In a small sample, guys are not necessarily going to match what they will over a longer period of time. And there is no way everyone will be hot or cold at the same time. If you carve out 3 weeks out of any part of the regular season you will be amazed and who is or is not very good. Just the nature of baseball.
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1. What am I most confident about headed into the season? Their health.
2. What worries do I have? The bullpen.
3.What prospect am I most looking forward to. Stubbs, because he is using up an option year, so we might as well get to see him this year at a position we are not that strong in.
4. What will we see when Hernandez umps? Hinch being a gentleman and Hernandez being an ass.
5. Who should the Astros chase for an extension next? Gerritt Cole.
6. Am I worried about the AL West? Not really, but I still believe our division will end up being better than anyone thinks.
7. I think Bregman has a chance at MVP. When talking about Astros injuries, nobody seems to remember he had a bad arm that hindered his defense last season.
8. I think Miley and Peacock will be fighting it out all season for third best starter.
9. I think the Red Sox are the biggest threat to the Astros.
10. I think the offense will perform the best in 2019.
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1. I like your answer here, Dan. Couldn’t ask for a better leader for the pitchers. I also feel confident that the lineup will improve over last year.
2. Kyle Tucker. I see another AJ Reed. Hope I’m wrong.
3. Whitley.
4. I’m not going to venture there. It could get very ugly.
5. Verlander and George.
6. No.
7. I could see Bregman as MVP. I would love to see Hinch Manger Of The Year. I thought he deserved it in 15 and 17.
8. Whitley.
9. Yankees.
10. Offense, heck, that’s a hard one. I can see all three among the best.
I swear I wrote my answers before I read yours.
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What are you the most confident about the Astros heading into 2019? The club winning 100+ games again.
What doubt or worry rattles around in the back of your brain about your Astros? That dad gum injury bug.
Which Astro prospect are you most looking forward to playing in the majors this year? Tucker.
What do you think happens the first time Angel Hernandez umpires an Astros’ game this season? Hernandez will blow a call.
The Astros just signed Ryan Pressly and Alex Bregman to an extension. Who should they chase next? Justin Verlander.
Are you concerned about any other team unseating the Astros in the AL West? No.
Of the major awards – Cy Young, MVP, Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year – who has the best chance of bringing hardware home to the Astros? Justin Verlander for the Cy Young.
Outside Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, who will be the Astros next best starting pitcher? Brad Peacock.
Which team is the biggest threat to a World Series championship run for the Astros? Yankees. They line up similar to the Astros.
Which part of the Astros will perform best in 2019? The starting pitching.
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“Hernandez will blow a call” Now SargH, you really went out on a limb with that prediction.
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AC at least I can claim a “win” on that call…
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1. scoring runs
2. i am alittle uneasy with the starting pitching after verlander and cole.
3. i was gonna say tucker, but he may not get much of a chance. so i’ll go with josh james.
4. lots of booing and a bad call or two.
5. i would like to see cole extended 3-4 years.
6. dont wanna be over confident or complacent, but i think we win the division comfortably.
7. verlander – cy young
8. see #2, i hope miley.
9. at this point i gotta say yankees
10. the offense.
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1. No glaring weaknesses.
2. Injuries
3. Run Forest Run.
4. Not predictable. He is not dishonest or crooked. He is just a bad umpire.
5. Verlander and Cole. (They signed two the other day – why not?)
6. ?? Each year, one team outperforms their projections. Not sure who it will be this year, but one of them will. Right now, it looks like the Mariners more likely than the A’s.
7. Verlander 1st and Cole 2nd.
8. Either Miley Cyrus or Hannah Montana.
9. Yanks.
10. Offense.
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Please don’t misunderstand me. We see the Astros locking up two of the best AND most well liked players with long term deals that extend into their thirties.
This may be indicative of a part of their plan and if their trend continues, Correa would be that third guy because he is at the age where a similar type deal would also tie him up until his early thirties.
Conversely, this trend might exclude signing a guy to a deal in his late thirties, and also seems not to have included signing someone like Patrick Corbin or Gerrit Cole, who is almost in the exact same financial value realm and age as Corbin.
Signing Pressly does not go outside this plan because a two year extension with an option year would not be considered a long term deal.
With two of their good guys tied up, it will be interesting to see how the Astros handle this situation in the next couple of years, as they also weave potential core players into their pitching rotation from their prospect list.
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Of course, this article appears about an hour after my babbling.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/astros-rumors-extensions-justin-verlander-gerrit-cole.html
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To get Cole signed now, it would have to be a deal significantly better than Corbin’s. I don’t know why Boras (and Cole) would take something in the same range, because they are both planning on Cole being the same pitcher he was in 2018 and Cole’s body of work from a career perspective is better than Corbin’s. Unless Cole is willing to take something like three years in the 90 range, which would still allow him to sign a big deal at 31, I don’t think he and Luhnow come to terms.
Verlander probably needs a similar deal.
We have seven guys signed for 2020 at roughly 90 million. Just for the heck of it, assigning 30 to Verlander, 30 to Cole, 2o to Springer, and 10 to Correa, that puts us at 180 for 11 guys with a tax threshold of 209. That leaves us with 29 million for the other 15 guys, with a 26 man roster in 2020 I believe.
Now I know there are ways to minimize the impact on the 2020 payroll by deferring some money, but I just don’t think we get to keep all the guys we want to keep. I find this all very fascinating, because I’m sure Luhnow knows all his options in his head at this point, with a fall back plan for each eventuality.
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Rosenthal says they are discussing extensions with both. That doesn’t mean they are going to extend both. This may be a case of first come first served.
That said, we probably won’t get to keep everybody we want to keep. Who does?
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No 1OP, but one can dream. Looking at it another way, do we go for both pitchers and live with the loss of Springer? I don’t have an answer to that difficult question.
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On another front, do you guys think the new AG will be reading the Mueller Report this weekend or watching March Madness? I hope this is taken as sports related content with no political leanings.
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Mueller report is kind of like watching a 15 seed 1 seed matchup? Not much to see here?
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Forget the Mueller report. McTaggart is quoting Crane saying that they are trying to get a Verlander extension done by Sunday when they break camp. That would be pretty cool.
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2 for 66!
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Disclaimer: My brother, always a reliable source has just qualified his text to me that it is not official at this point. I’ll kill him like brothers do if he’s wrong.
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Ahh had me going there for a minute!
If it does happen at those numbers, there’s no doubt that Crane and Luhnow will do whatever it takes for us to win the championship year after year, not just make the playoffs every year. Money’s secondary to winning
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Way off topic, but if any of you are ever lost and end up in Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, Mexico, visit the Mexican Baseball Hall of Fame.
https://www.salondelafamadelbeisbolmexicano.com/
And it is no joke, the infamous Mario Mendoza (Mendoza Line) is a member. There was also a lot of old photographs of MLB players in their Mexican League Uniforms. Back when the players made so little money, they needed to play Winter Ball just for a little income.
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The Peacock is our #5 starter!
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Good decision.
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Some stuff:
* Yordan Alvarez, Abraham Toro, Ronnie Dawson and Christian Javier are among a larger group of prospects who would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft in December.
* A possible Verlander extension is somethin very thought provoking. He must add so much more to the team than just his pitching for the Astros to consider this.
* I’m wondering if Yuli Gurriel is going to move up to another level. I just have a feeling about him.
* I noticed that Colin Moran has lost the 3rd base job to Kang for the Pirates.
Musgrove is listed as their #4 starter and Jordan Lyles as their #5 starter.
* Chris Archer’s contract is up after this season.
* Wondering if the Dodgers are going to explode out of the gate without Puig and Kemp there to slow them down.
* Tony kemp and Myles Straw have been spraying line drives all over the place.
* Gerritt Cole was very emphatic in denying the rumors that he was discussing an extension with the Astros. Very emphatic!
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I noticed that on Cole too, op – it was weirdly emphatic
Pirates have two years of a team option on Archer after this year. They can keep him for $9 million for 2020 and $11 million for 2021 and he has no choice
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Wow, Dan, how did I miss that?
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Yeah – what made me look is that I remembered he was a popular trade name because he was controllable for 3 yrs past last year.
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He’s getting old and not better. That 25.5 million deal the the club option years will probably keep him from ever signing a big deal.
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In bizarre Rangers news – Jason Hammel who had been in camp on a minor league contract was told yesterday he made the team and today he retired.
Is it that bad to be a Ranger?
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So I hear it’s a done deal. Can we get George done next?
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I am glad the Astros extended Verlander. He is what the club needs, a bulldog leader type.
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As OVER THE MOON I was when we got Verlander, I’m nearly double that now that we have him for two more years! Besides being one of the BEST pitchers who ever took the ball, his wealth of knowledge will be UN…BELIEVABLE!
We have some great young pitchers who will be in the rotation next year, and he will be there to help Strom with those young arms! THIS may just turn out to be the best $66 million Crane ever spent! The next guy should be Springer…having 3 out of your core 4 locked up, would take the pressure off ANY starting pitcher! This has been a GREAT spring training for our club!
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So they give Verlander this expensive extension and the bum goes out and pitches 4 shutout innings with 2 hits and only 9 Ks.
Seriously if anyone is worth this kind of money – JV is it.
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After the game Guduan was optioned out and Framber claimed the spot in the bullpen.
I think they needed a guy who could pitch multiple innings when needed and that is not Guduan’s forte`.
So, the Astros have two rookie pitchers on their 25-man, James and Framber. That’s a good start.
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Things I didn’t know coming into the spring:
* I did not know how highly Max Stassi’s defense was valued.
* I thought I knew how prized Justin Verlander was to Houston. I didn’t.
* I didn’t know how much Bregman loved Houston.
* I didn’t know what Nick Tanielu’s capabilities were with the bat. Now that his knee is healed, he may have a better chance to improve his defense.
* I saw Tony Kemp as an extra piece to the puzzle. Now I see him as a player who might be more than an extra piece.
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yet another good move by the front office. as mentioned by sargeh above, verlander is a leader and one that leads by example. all these young pitchers we have coming up this year and the next two, will have an example in the clubhouse and on the field to show how a professional goes about training, preparation with determination and a deep desire to win. thats a very good thing for us.
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tag. you’re it.
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Justin Verlander today called the Astros the best organization in baseball.
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So……”WHO” is this Tanielu person again?? I really like this kid, he makes things happen!
Gotta agree with Mr. Verlander OP! He said he didn’t want to go anywhere else!
Same thing Bregman said about this team, and this city! Spring training is done and I feel really positive about 2019⚾!
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I saw where the opening day 25 man roster has been set. Only one issue bothers me which I mentioned before. Aledmys Diaz and his monstrous .152 batting average. I hope he turns it around but there are far too many good players in the minors who’d love a chance to play in the big league. Tyler White was a disappointment in ST but I’ll be a little more patient with him. He at least got over the Mendoza line.
Love knowing that JV will be around for another two years. I personally don’t think we’ll see Cole after this year but we have some up and coming stars in our rotation so it will be interesting. Time to “Take It Back”.
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About my only concern with the Verlander signing is what impact that may have on Springer getting an extension. With Alvarez and Tucker waiting in the wings and Alvarez almost a certain 40 man candidate to avoid the Rule 5 we seem to have an excess of outfielders. Of course we only have two years of Reddick and Brantley but can you keep Tucker and Alvarez down on the farm that long? Really interested in your takes on that. Because of his role in the clubhouse I almost view Springer as more indispensable than Correa.
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Your concern about Verlander’s money affecting Springer is valid. But it is also fair to remember that Springer has two years of control left and He will be 31 when or if he hits free agency.
On the other hand, Tucker is only 22 and Alvarez is only 21, and they can definitely improve in the next year or so.
Springer, Brantley, Reddick and Marisnick only have two years left on their deals and the timeline for Tucker and Alvarez to take over is 2021. That’s when we will need a new outfield, or some combination of what we have and what is coming up. I am not forgetting about Dawson, Kemp and Straw either.
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Agree 1OP. I think we have a lot left “in the can” to more than replace those who will soon be gone.
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Just trying to project: Possible 2021 Astros’ opening day lineup?
Straw – CF [back-up, R. Dawson?]
Altuve – 2B
Bregman – SS
Alvarez – DH [back-up, T. White?]
Toro -3B
Tucker- RF
Seth Beer- 1B
Stubbs – C
Kemp – LF
Whitely, SP
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Bill, as Correa is not a FA until 2022, I hope to still see him at short in 2021. Yeah, I mentioned that he could get traded between now if it became apparent that he had no desire to stay on Houston, or it became obvious his cost would be too high, but that would be all conjecture at this point. I’m also hopeful that Springer really does want to consider an extension. With the guys he gets to play with, why not? I don’t see both Straw and Kemp in the same outfield, because the club wants more offense out there. I still see them both as 4th outfielder types.
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I started to put Correa in the mix. But if he’s here in 2021, and Bregs stays at 3B, the most likely ‘odd man’ out of the line-up above would be the 3B, Toro [unless he’s here strictly to DH], wouldn’t it?
But I get what you are saying about the way the FO thinks about OBP but minimal HR power guys like Kemp and Straw. I was just thinking maybe the prospect of adding power guys like Beer, Toro, K.Tuck, and Alvarez in the middle of the lineup might make a 1 & 9 high speed, high OBP duo more palatable to the FO. You are probably right – Kemp is probably going to be traded for a good catcher and/or SS prospect.
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Honest Abe had a great spring, but he’s still more work to do. I kind of see him as a potential long term Marwin guy a bit down the road.
As far as what other guys are a part of our future, seems Dan will have us talking about it in the next couple of days. I remain queasy about Tucker. He did not me feel any better about him this spring. But he is still a kid!
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I have a post coming that looks at the “future” after the extensions – hope y’all find it interesting.
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Revving up the DeLorian now, Dan!
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Mr. Bill – set that cruise control for 88 mph…..
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I was going to comment but I’ll wait for your eagerly awaited, much anticipated, chomping at the bit post that I’m sure we will all find most enlightening, entertaining, and exciting.
How’s that for really throwing accolades your way Dan. Others might refer to it as something else but I think not. Credit is given where credit is due.
Pretty syrupy wasn’t it?
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Z – while I would love to lend you money, co-sign on your loan, talk you up to your wife (or whoever), buy you season tickets, etc. – I am not in a situation to do that. Now what do you really think of my writing…..
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In this case it’s the thought that counts. I’m sure I speak for others on this blog that appreciate what you do. I can remember first getting involved in the blog a few years back when I believe it was tied to that funky Houston newspaper and Chip was driving the train. Being pretty much retired these days, it’s always a bright spot in the day. I look forward to watching our team “take it back” and all of the fun we’ll have in doing it and talking about it.
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Its been fun on my side too – it is more fun these days as I seem to be able to spend a little less time than I did in the “old” days wringing these posts out of my keyboard. Hard to believe that we’ve come from the chron.com days through the Darkness on the Edge of Town (2011-2014) all the way to where we can talk about World Series chances with a straight face every year.
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