5 unexpected things that could happen in the Astros’ off-season

The Astros’ front office has done the unexpected many times under GM and President of Baseball Operations Jeff Luhnow. Who saw them signing Yuli Gurriel (who had never played in the minor leagues much less the majors) for $47.5 million? Or Charlie Morton with a 47-71 career record and coming off a season where he threw only 17 innings was given a 2 year, $14 million contract? Or taking pitcher Collin McHugh who had a 48-28 record as a starting pitcher for the Astros and sticking him in the bullpen for the 2018 season?

So, to spur discussion, here are five unexpected things that could happen in the Astros’ off-season.

1. Trade Yuli Gurriel

Yuli has been a solid contributor for the Astros, but not a big power guy like one would expect from a corner infield spot. He is great at not striking out (11% of plate appearances) and bad at walking (4% of PAs). He is signed for $18.8 million over the next two seasons with two additional seasons of team control under arbitration. But he will also turn 35 this coming June.

Now that the Astros have a flexible utility guy in Aledmys Diaz, if they obtain another big bat like 1B Paul Goldschmidt, they may be saying bye bye to Yuli.

2. Trade Kyle Tucker

Yes, the Astros don’t want to trade Tucker or Forrest Whitley, but common sense tells you that Whitley may be worth more than Tucker to the team. And if the team saw things in Tucker’s call-up that they think might be a fatal flaw… They might not let their alleged feelings for Tucker keep them from a blockbuster J.T. Realmuto or Cory Kluber or Paul Goldschmidt trade.

3. Sign a free agent they can’t use in 2019

A pitcher like Garrett Richards who is recovering from Tommy John surgery could be grabbed as a future investment – someone who may not be ready in 2019, but could be signed to multiple years at a discount and show up to assist when Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole and Collin McHugh likely ride into the sunset after next season.

4. Package Deal Attempt

The Astros at least attempt to chase a package deal like Zack Greinke and Goldschmidt with the thought that taking on a chunk or all of Greinke’s contract lessens what they need to give up to pick up a Goldschmidt.

5. Obtain a “different” catcher

Everyone has heard about the Astros interest in trading for J.T. Realmuto.  Free agents like Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos have been mentioned as potential targets. But often in the past “different” players have been obtained than those rumored (See last trade deadline pickups – Ryan Pressly, Roberto Osuna and Martin Maldonado).

If Cleveland is unloading some salary, maybe they would be interested in making Yan Gomes available. Or perhaps Pittsburgh with two solid catchers might put backup Elias Diaz on the market.

Bottom line. None of these unexpected things may happen, but don’t be surprised if some do.

Any unexpected things that you think may occur?

And a little early. We at Chipalatta wish all of our dear readers a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday.

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103 responses to “5 unexpected things that could happen in the Astros’ off-season”

  1. Bringing this late night comment from oldpro forward to this post…

    1oldpro
    November 20, 2018 @ 10:57 pm
    -The day you set your roster is one of the most informative days of the year. We don’t have to wait for the front office to say something for us to learn a lot today.
    -The players the team chooses to protect tells us a lot.
    -The players the team doesn’t protect tells us a lot.
    -Analytics helps them make the decisions as well as scouts and minor league coaches do. Luhnow has a lot of input and sources.
    -The decisions made today might also give us a glimpse as to what the team might be looking to add. They didn’t choose to protect any infielders or outfielders.
    -Riley Ferrell or Bryan Abreu? That question is answered.

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    • – The Astros chose to protect C Stubbs and P Armenteros, which were not a surprise and P Abreu, which was a bit of a surprise for someone who has not pitched above A ball. However, the only player the Astros lost to Rule 5 in 2017 was Elieser Hernandez, who also had never pitched above A ball.
      – They did not protect players like OF Drew Ferguson, C Jamie Ritchie, P Cy Sneed, P Erasmo Pinales, P Riley Ferrell, P Brendan McCurry

      Like op says, there are a lot of things including analytics, scouting reports, age, and position that go into this, plus I’m sure a lot of risk management by the Astros front office.
      The other side of the coin is that the Astros will obviously have looked at other team’s players exposed to the Rule 5 draft, but with such a “mature” roster, there is virtually no chance they will give a 25 man roster spot to anyone out there.

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  2. To pile on top of Dan’s comment, on the 30th of this month we have to tender the guys who are arbitration eligible on our 40-man and all other teams will do the same. Out of that will come a relatively new bunch of free agents into the current pool and everyone’s roster will be set with the players they want to keep and then the frenzy of signings and trades will truly start.

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    • I suspect this is the big reason for not adding certain guys to the 40 man. It’s a gamble to tie up a spot you might need to grab someone that another team will end up non-tendering. Also, there are flaws to most of the players we discussed that will make it tough for another team to pick and keep them on the 25 man roster all season long.

      But realistically, I’m hoping that extra space means Luhnow has some important moves in the works to help cover the loss of LMJ and Martes next year.

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  3. -I believe the Astros want to improve their outfield. What avenues they take to do that will be interesting.
    -I believe the Astros want to improve at the catcher position. Do they spend money or assets to accomplish that.
    -I believe the Astros want to improve at DH. Do they already have the guy they think will do that?
    -I am firmly convinced that the Astros believe in Whitley. They proved they would rather have Whitley for six years than Paxton for two.
    -By December of next year, Yordan Alvarez, Abraham Toro and Ronnie Dawson will need to be protected from Rule 5, or not. It may be that the time to make room for them is this offseason.
    -With the move from Fresno to Round Rock, isn’t it time to make sure that our best pitching prospects are pitching at AA and AAA?
    -I believe that the Yankees see us in their rear view mirror and have their sights set on Boston. I believe they could be mistaken.

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    • I also believe we’ve got the DH we need, especially if he goes back to working his counts and is willing to settle for a free pass to first. I know that White was seeing more pitches per at bat than any other Astro, at least early in his 2018 tenure. And just coming back in a bit more trim would really boost my confidence that nephew is here to stay. He’ll give us an .800 plus OPS for little more than a half million.

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  4. Five unexpected things that could happen but probably won’t:
    -The Astros sign Matt Harvey and start rebuilding his career, while Verlander and Cole are still here.
    -The Astros sign Bryce Harper and have their second core player tied up long term.
    -The Astros trade Tucker and Company for Realmuto.
    -The Astros decide that Myles Straw can replace Jake Marisnick for one-fifth the cost and for three or four more cheaper years.
    -The Astros trade Josh Reddick straight up for Zack Greinke.

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      • 45, at this point, he deserves it. Us too. Give thanks we’re still around to read his off the wall thoughts on having Harper and George in the same outfield. If that happened, I’d have to track down the address and send him a bottle of El Dorado 21. Great to sip in front of the fire or under a coconut tree.

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    • Glad to have you back Sandy.

      Old pro – it would be interesting if any of your five things came to pass.
      – Harvey comes back to the place he was beat up in the return from Hurricane Harvey
      – Harper comes here and that likely means Springer will not be here when he hits FA
      – The Astros decide a few years with a top notch catcher is worth the risk vs. long term with a potentially great but uncertain OF
      – The Astros decide they know who Marisnick is and that he’ll never hit like Straw
      – The Astros take on $90+ million in Greinke’s salary in exchange for $30+ of Reddick

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      • Of course, all five things are separate, but:
        -Harvey has the stuff. Can the Astros help him use it?
        -I threw the Harper thing out there because the Astros still have two years of Springer left, but when you make the huge move, you DO get your core player and you don’t have to wait for one of your guys to leave you at the altar when his free agency happens. Harper frees up Reddick to get Greinke, Reddick ties up salary for Arizona, but frees up a lot more for them, while giving them an outfielder to replace the one they are losing this offseason.
        Tucker for Realmuto is tough, but Harper makes it hurt less and Alvarez is coming next year Realmuto is the real deal.
        I admit, adding Harper, Realmuto, Greinke and Harvey are all very far out there for a little flyover franchise like us.

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      • One thing about Harper that I’m not too keen on. He does have a temper and shows it at times, throwing helmets, bats, gloves, “the kitchen sink”. I guess I could get used to it but can Springer be our Bryce Harper for a lot less or is it a foregone conclusion that he will bolt in two years. I would definitely take that Greinke deal. And I’m begining to think losing Tucker for Realmuto is not such a bad deal. Just throw in a couple of lesser potentials.

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  6. New Astros coaches.
    I hope this twitter link works

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    • Former major leaguer Don Kelly joins the Astros as their new 1B coach. Previously scouted for the Tigers.
      Sig Mejdal formally joins Elias in Baltimore.

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    • Looking at Harper’s stats and Springer’s stats, then looking at WAR….yeah, I don’t get how WAR works, unless there’s something defensively I cannot see.

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    • Bryce harper has 30.7 WAR in 7 seasons. George Springer has 18.2 War in 5 seasons. I wasn’t replacing Springer with Harper, I was adding him and Harper together in the outfield. Oh, Springer is also 3 years older than Harper. That is three big years. Harper is a free agent at 26 and George will be a free agent at 31. I’m just sayin’.

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  9. Dan, to respond to your post, I think something unexpected will happpen, but I don’t have any idea what it will be. I’d guess significant outfielder though.

    But, the only thing that would surprise me about Yuli being traded would be who might want him? He sure was clutch, especially earlier in the year. But as you noted, he’ll never be an on base guy and the .751 OPS might not improve at this point.

    I think Luhnow would move Tucker for the right guy, so that would not surprise me either. When Bregman struggled a couple of years ago, he still looked like he belonged out there. I just have not seen that body language from Tucker.

    And yeah, while Realmuto would be one to sell the most season tickets before Christmas, chances are that we’ll have to settle for one of the other guys. But maybe that nets us Goldschmidt ultimately.

    I don’t see a big spend or a big trade for a pitcher. I see another Mortonesque type deal. I think the belief that Whitley will be on the mound this summer is a factor. I also think that just about the safest place to use a whole lot of resources for a pitcher would be on Cole.

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  10. In the Rule 5 draft, on occasion, you find Marwin Gonzalez. But normally as low as the Astros pick, you get Anthony Gose. A guy everyone was excited about because he could throw the ball 100 mph. He was sent back to the Rangers then to AA and then demoted to A ball by year’s end.

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  11. More things that could happen:
    -The Astros trade for catcher Elias Diaz.
    The Astros trade for Edwin Diaz.
    The Astros become the first MLB team in history to have three Diaz’s on the infield at the same time.
    -The White Sox non-tender Avisail Garcia. The Astros sign him and promote him to sergeant.
    -The Astros give Myles Straw a job and he is banned from playing on the West Coast because, you know, straws are bad.
    -The Astros finally trade Tony Kemp straight up for Mike Trout, but Trout nixes the trade because he doesn’t believe in straws in his outfield.
    -Geoff Blum quits because he can’t say McCannon ball any more. Or McCullers ball either. McHugh ball sounds too weird.
    -The Astros trade the farm for Realmuto and then he wants to tell Verlander what to throw. Verlander asks the Astros to sign James McCann as his personal catcher. Blum then agrees to return to the booth.
    -The Astros fire AJ Hinch and hire Major Applewhite as their manager. Applewhite cries as he explains that the Astros’ job is the only job he would ever leave the Cougars for.

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  13. Hope everybody was watching just now as Jose Altuve and James Harden received keys to the city from Mayor Turner to open the Houston Thanksgiving Day parade. ‘Tuve was standing there on two legs, looking sleepy and short next to James. Happy Thanksgiving to all!

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  14. To all my friends – Happy Thanksgiving!!
    Enjoy that
    Turkey
    Ham
    Stuffing
    Potatoes
    Gravy
    Pearled onions
    Green bean casserole
    Corn
    Sweet potatoes
    Deviled eggs
    Mac and cheese
    Cranberries
    Pickles and olives
    Dinner rolls
    Pumpkin pie
    Apple pie
    Pecan pie
    Buttermilk pie
    Chocolate pie
    And whatever you live with whoever you love

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  15. So will the Astros pursue the Mets pitcher Noah Syndergaard in a trade? He has a career ERA below 3, he’s 25 years old and he’s controllable thru 2021…. though he has missed time the last couple seasons

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    • I would. Mets need a good SS and have pitchers. We need a good starter and have two good SSs. Noah and Carlos are the same age, have the same 3 years control and are projected to make similar money. Both have had physical problems and both will probably become free agents at the same time. Carlos for Noah, straight up. That’s a blockbuster.

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  18. I hope all of you had a wonderful day visiting and eating with those you love the most! On this Thanksgiving day I’m thankful for:
    Dr. Khory and Dr. Nunez told me this past September that I wouldn’t have to see either one of them until Feb 2019! *AWESOME*!!
    That I have a wonderful husband who takes me to the Doctor and takes notes.
    He takes me to the grocery store and to get my hair done too!!
    That we have healthy children and grandchildren!
    I’m thankful for our younger daughter (she’s 40) has finally realized that life is not a dress rehearsal, and it really is ok to come back home. I’m sooo thankful…for you Lord for hearing and answering my prayers for her🙏❤
    I’m thankful that I have this wonderful life, and this crazy baseball team that I love so very much!
    I’m thankful for all the many blessings I have received in this life, and thankful for all of you who have become my friends on this wonderful blog!
    Dan and Chip, thank you for the opportunity for all of us to be “arm chair GM’s”! I’m still stuffed, but that Turkey sandwich is calling my name!!
    Back to work tomorrow Jeff Luhnow!!!

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  21. Isn’t it interesting that we even entertain thoughts about trading Correa. I don’t think its off the wall at all. One cannot discount the injury history. I suspect that the brain trust is working overtime to figure if Carlos’ injuries are flukes or trends. Thor’s history makes me nervous but he would be a catch. I think I would prefer Carlos in a deal for Realmuto – trading an everyday player for a pitcher seems a bit risky.

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  23. Back in the winter of 2015 the Astros were coming off a surprise playoff appearance and they had a Cy Young winning ace on their team that was considered part of their future. One of the core four we could tie up with an extension.
    Fast forward to today and the Astros did not tie up Keuchel and he is a free agent. He also is a guy who is not going to get ace-type money, because he has not been an ace since 2015.
    I make suggestions of moves the club can make. That is exactly what this particular posting of Dan’s is about: Unexpected things that could happen.
    They are meant to provoke. They are meant to stimulate conversation.
    I proposed a far out trade involving Correa. It is unexpected. But I also use the example of Keuchel and others who have fooled baseball experts to point out that hardly anyone playing baseball, except Mike Trout, attains and then sustains elite level of play.
    Experts make huge mistakes: Cashman and Ellsbury. The Red Sox and Sandoval. The Angels and Pujols. The Mariners and Cano. Epstein and Jason Heyward. Huge moves that hamstring teams.
    Correa for Thor is a big move. Three years from now, when they both may be stars with a Cy Young or an MVP on their belts, or they both may be disappointments, or only one has been great, both players will likely enter free agency. But, today, NY is dangling a potential ace pitcher and looking for a big return and have no shortstop. The Astros need a pitcher and has two players on their team that are All-Star quality shortstops. I just put it out there. And I do also have in the back of my mind that there is Donaldson out there to play 3B and/or that next year Rendon and Arenado are going to hit free agency.
    Happy Thanksgiving. Today is Turkey Day for us, because everybody up here was sick or gone hunting yesterday.

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    • I will say that you have opened a potential Pandora’s box. Trading Correra is definitely likely to raise the hair on the back of some peoples necks. I myself think it’s intriguing the possibility of trading CC. Outside of Altuve, who on this team has indicated they want to be an Astro for life? Yes CC is a few years away from FA but with the injuries and other intangibles I would not discount the possibility. Just my two cents worth. Oh by the way, can I get change back on my investment?

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      • “Outside of Altuve, who on this team has indicated they want to be an Astro for life?”
        You nailed it!
        Everything has to be taken into consideration.
        None of the thousands upon thousands of Dallas Keuchel’s adoring Houston fans made a difference when it came to turning down $18 million to play one more season for the Astros.
        Baseball is a one way street. The fans give and the owners and players take.
        I love the Astros. But very few Astros will love me back. They will leave because there is more money somewhere else. And they will pay for an add in the paper thanking all the fans for the great memories(dollars) and then move on to the next gig and will tell them that they came to that new city to make great memories(more dollars).

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    • What if I suggest Bregman for Thor instead of Correa? Where would you stand there?

      I wouldn’t make either trade. There are a lot of starting pitchers with golden arms. I still think Correa is better than Bregman today and for a long time. I think our history is littered with flameouts and never will be SS and 3B. Why weaken those spots right now for a guy who (maybe) plays in 30 games?

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  25. daveb7 on January 28, 2017 at 7:30 pm
    “I’d be shocked if Peacock keeps a job in the organization. He’ll be 28+ with a mediocre minor league career and a 1.426 WHIP in 263 MLB innings. Even if there is feeling of warmth for the guy, that he might finally put it together, there is no room left. We have too much other much younger talent. Correct OP.”

    I’m thankful for Jeff Luhnow Lol!

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    • Ha ha. I guess it’s trolling season. That’s where you’re been! Grayson, you’re safe though, because I don’t have time to go back. I’m using all the energy I’ve got left to move forward. Speaking of Peacock, does he get a real shot at the rotation?

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      • Just being playful, I’d saved that one to have a good laugh every once in awhile, only because I like the guy and wish the same for him as you do with nephew.

        No, I’d rather see us save Peacock for 2020, if needed in the rotation. He obviously got a little exposed near the end of last season, where his slider was predictable and flat; or, not set up well by proper sequences, loss of fastball command, that sort of thing. At this point, he’s a question mark. Not as big question mark as Smith Rondon Devo, but I expect Brad to come in well-conditioned (creates a lot of leverage with solid trunk, hasn’t had many injuries), and ready to be stretched out for at least 50 pitches. That allows Hinch the versatility.

        Listening to Peacock after World Series post game (with LMJ), he doesn’t have the mental makeup for a dominant starter. I think he’s suited for a ‘waiting-in-the-wings’ swingman, as he was in 2018.

        However, I think Whitley (and Tucker) start in RR. I’d give an edge to James, McHugh to join Cole and JV. I’d like us to add a proven reclamation like Derek Holland, or (possibly) a Sonny Gray-type. Rather stay with lefty and get Corbin,… only if we cannot extend Cole and JV. I’ve run the math and I think it would take $50MM each to extend them both through 2022. Would they take it? Since Correa is a sort of question with possible recurring back issues, our core may be shrinking to Bregman Altuve, and who else?

        Beyond, we have about six arms I’m extremely excited about (Valdez Bukauskas Martin Ivey Abreu to name a few). In July, Astros Future ranked James and Valdez 24 and #25. How quickly did these guys ascend?

        I wonder if any of a few who saw him — Bill Op Dan 45 Becky and others. How does Whitley favor Larry Dierker, and can you think of any young prospect in the past with this kind of arsenal (not Jordan Lyles, maybe JR Richard?). Given that Forrest stays healthy, do you think he could or should be exposed to MLB hitters based on what’s best for Whitley mostly, or the team? We may after all, need him sooner, rather than later.

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      • I saw Whitley pitch in the AFL All-Star game, where his breaking stuff was not good. He pitched two scoreless innings using his fastball and changeup. Guererro Jr. led off the game with a triple and Whitley pitched out of it without giving up a run. His last AFL appearance was brilliant against the team that was the eventual AFL Champs. After that performance, his catcher said he was in total control of every one of his five pitches. He gave up an infield hit in five innings and struck out nine batters with no walks.
        Whitley’s fastball reminds me a little of David Paulino’s because it starts off very high, because of his height, and comes through the zone at a very sharp downward angle. The big difference between him and Paulino is that he has four other pitches besides that 97 mph fastball and two of those secondary pitches are plus pitches and the other two are above average.
        I would love Clemens and Verlander to work a little with him in spring trainingon other facets of pitching, but they don’t have to pump him up because he is very confident in his ability.

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  26. Right now, I think all FOs are playing poker and looking at all the possibilities of what might be the “river card.” They KNOW what happened in the past, but their job is see into the future. Our job is to blame them when the “river card” matches squat that they already had in their hands. Correa was a bust last year. Now was it because of injury or something else. Can he become the league MVP in Houston? Is CC the one with 6.3 WAR or 1.7? Is Thor the one of 1.7 WAR or 0.6? Check with me in 2021 and I will give you my answer.

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  27. Bob McNair passed away this evening. I’ve seen enough cancer patients to know the last time he was out in public, he had reached the point where doing anymore chemo treatments were not an option. Houston owes this man soo much for bringing Football back to this city. Rest in peace Mr. McNair.

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    • McNair pulled off one of the greatest sports coups ever when he got the NFL to award him a franchise over LA. He made a lot of Houstonians happy that day and was a big philanthropist to local causes over the years.

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  28. My husband and our sons are BIG Texans fans, I never heard a cross word out of his mouth. The players absolutely loved him. It appears that his son Cal will take over for his dad. Jim Crane said McNair was very helpful to him when he bought the Astros. Neither one of them had ever owned a professional sports team, Crane helped him learn how to build a relationship with this city and her fans!
    Sure has been quiet with our team……I’m hoping Luhnow has been burning up the phone lines making some AWESOME trades⚾!

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  30. Using a line from an old favorite sports writer of mine, Dick Peebles, kicking the ball around the odds and ends zone, I came up with a game while contemplating the boredom I see in the latest comments. How about we pretend it’s 2013 and we have to field a team of minimum salary players from our own organization to put on the field at MMP. The criteria involved is that the player can’t have reached arbitration.
    I am only using guys who I think are not preemies, they have to be at least decently close to the major leagues.
    Here is my 2019 rebuilding Astros major league team:
    Myles Straw CF
    Alex Bregman SS
    Kyle Tucker RF
    JD Davis 3B
    AJ Reed 1B
    Tyler White DH
    Garrett Stubbs C
    Aldemys Diaz 2B
    Tony Kemp LF
    Bench is Stassi, Fisher, Marwi…wait, I can’t do that….Mayfield.
    Rotation
    James R
    Whitley R
    Valdez L
    Armenteros R
    Hartman L
    Bullpen
    Cionel Perez L
    Bryan Abreu R
    Deetz R
    Guduan L
    Bukauskas R
    Bailey R
    Bielak R
    Martin R
    I went with an 8 man bullpen with 3 long relievers to save my young starters some innings.
    Realistically I could see this team winning 70 games because of the arms.

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    • You are welcome, ever so much.
      Compare that rotation to the opening day 5 starters of the 2013 Houston Astros:
      Norris
      Harrell
      Humber
      Peacock
      Bedard
      I would take my 2019 rookie rotation every day over that one.
      I won’t even get into the 2013 bullpen. OMG!

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    • It’s definitely not the post that is boring. I’ve had fun with it. It’s MLB that has been absolutely boring for the last three weeks.
      I believe that things are going to end up like they did last year and it’s not collusion–it’s analytics.
      It is the comingling of value assessment with economics and it’s collision with baseball worth.
      Look, the elite, or perceived elite are going to get their money. But the Astros are in the unique position of having seen their analytically-driven plan work and they are going to keep doing it and will keep trying to improve it even more. They know everything there is to know about every player out there. They have all the stats and they have been talking to all the agents, and most of the clubs out there are doing the exact same thing.
      But the final deadline is the reason things haven’t popped. Nobody wants any other team to know until the last minute who they are going to tender because letting other teams know who you don’t want to keep will definitely tell other teams who you want to go get. All the teams are going to tip their hands at the same time, like they did last Tuesday afternoon and then the frenzy of moves are going to start.
      One thing to remember. The Astros received a big amount of revenue from a huge jump in attendance and they(along with all the other clubs) received an extra $50million from MLB from that sale of that company they sold. Then the Astros made the playoffs and went fairly deep and had 5 extra home playoff games. If the Astros want to spend money, they have the money. What they don’t want to do is let anybody know what they actually want, which is why we keep hearing that they want everybody! The Astros are pretty happy with everybody reporting that they are in on five trades and ten big free agents.
      That’s what I think.

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  34. For those that might think that I was indicating that this blog was boring, I was gravely misunderstood. Never so, in fact it gets a 9 on my stimulation scale. I was simply ready for baseball again. And it’s everybody’s fault on this blog who keep my interest up in our team, especially Dan. Kudos to you for all that you do. I used to be content to forget about baseball (Astros) till after the season ended. NO more and it’s all your (everybody’s) fault (sorry that was redundant). Keep up the good work. Unlike others, I’d rather not go into hibernation over the winter. A big Dilly, Dilly to all.

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    • Z – that was not aimed at your comments – I was just pretty bored myself – not much going on and not a lot to chew on at the moment. And with the holiday weekend just did not have a lot of action on the blog anyway.

      Any way Dilly dilly back at ya

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