Astros’ 2018: Weekend talking points

In an effort to keep the fine conversations going here are some more talking points.

Are You Pro-Labor or Pro-Owner?

It is hard to pick sides anymore when either of these parties are involved. Do you side with the thirty multi-billionaires who struggle to stay afloat while pulling in sick amounts of media money? Do you side with the 750 mostly multi-millionaires who get paid to play a kids’ game? The minimum those guys make is $500,000 a season, more than most of us will ever make in multi-years or a career.

The multi-billionaires pay a certain amount for their businesses and a few years later their business is worth two, four, ten times what they paid. They go begging for newer, brighter and bigger stadiums with taxpayer backing from governments that can barely keep the lights on.  The players make more money than most American business owners make and they are just employees.

And then the agents, who pull a percentage off of what the players make for trying to maximize what the players make, moan when that amount isn’t continuing to escalate like a Saturn missile taking off. OK, I know my age is showing since Saturn missiles haven’t been around since before the first ballplayer (Nolan Ryan) broke the million dollar a year mark in 1980. The highest paid annual salary today is Clayton Kershaw at $33 million. I’m betting that people in your occupation do not make 33 times what one of them made in 1980.

Do we really care how the 30 teams and 750 players split the approximately $10 billion generated every year? Do we care if there is collusion to assure that the top players make $100 million over 5 years instead of $300 million over 10 years?

No, we just want them to shut up and keep playing. And our opinion should matter more than it does, since the $10 billion….comes from us.

Where does baseball rank with you?

It is the off-season for baseball. The Super Bowl is this Sunday. The Winter Olympics crank up next week from South Korea. The NBA is in the middle of the regular season and MISL soccer just had the championship. Hockey is a sport we no longer enjoy locally, but might enjoy again. I’m guessing that baseball is the big sport for most of you, but I don’t really know.

For me the sports rank as follows:

  1. Major league baseball
  2. NFL
  3. NBA
  4. College football
  5. Soccer
  6. College basketball
  7. NHL
  8. Olympics

What about you?

Fill in the blank….

  • The most critical player for the Astros in 2018 will be________
  • The one thing that worries me about the team for 2018 is______
  • I will be upset if ______ isn’t given a chance to contribute for the Astros this season.
  • I wish former Astro _______ had been with the team when they won the Championship.

So…. your turn.

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70 responses to “Astros’ 2018: Weekend talking points”

  1. I wouldn’t say I am Pro-owner or Pro Labor in this case because there is Jeff Lorias on one side and Josh Hamiltons on the other. Both sides have contributed equally to what exists in baseball today.
    I will say that a labor union that negotiates for all the players ideas, but does not negotiate their salaries is not a true Labor union in the same sense as other unions in other industries. This union is the very definition of collusion in that they involve themselves in the individual salary disputes of every individual player but doesn’t negotiate for those individual salaries. They choose to talk about a strike over a situation that they have chosen not to get involved in: and that is: the individual negotiations of free agent salaries.
    Since the average salary of a baseball player is $4 million dollars, maybe they should pay every player $4 million dollars and then renegotiate that figure every four years like all the other true unions do. That way, great players like Mike Trout could be happy with his $4 million salary and play baseball or leave the industry and go to work as a lawyer or a chef, like workers in other trades do.
    Or, baseball could decide to make teams be owned publicly and have stockholders actually own the team instead of individual and then let the MLBPA negotiate contracts for all players on all teams and have all teams having the same opportunity to win because there is a set salary for each player according to their years of service, have the same retirement plan and health insurance plan just like other corporations. Every team has 25 players and every player makes $4 million and every team’s payroll is $100 million and everyone playing is equally rich(or poor depending on each individual’s perspective). Every one of the 30 individual corporations can fire players they want to fire at the end of each season and then hire their replacements for $4 million for the following year. and do it all again. Then, after a few years the league ends up with two or three good teams because players then get together and decide amongst themselves which team they want to play for and the players end up running the league but only for $4 million per player.
    There is no good solution for what baseball has created for itself, because it is and always has been about power, prestige and money and we all know how that ends up.

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  2. 1. Wasn’t it Gordon Gekko in Wall Street that said “Greed, for lack of a better word is good”. I think that the Baseball Business is one big “money pie” and the players, owners, lawyers, etc. all want a piece of it. Some are happy getting what they get and others will never be happy. It really is not the real world that I figure that almost all of us come from. We, the fans pay our hard earned dollars to watch or go to the games, get food, drink, and souvenirs from at the stadiums, pay outlandish rates to park a car, and try to escape the daily grind that we have to do everyday. It’s why we talk about a game taking too long or I hate missing a crucial inning because I wanted a dog and beer, or a trip to the facilities. Sponsorship’s and TV revenue are what has inflated the salaries more than anything and I guess that was inevitable. I just sometimes yearn for the simpler days. Hopefully Baseball won’t ever become like Hockey (130), Basketball (45), or football (85). The upper end is ridiculous.
    2. MLB, NFL (not lately), College Basketball (March Madness), Olympics (Winter), College Football (Bowl Games), NHL, Soccer, NBA.
    3. Jose Altuve.. the heart and soul of the team
    4. Injuries the biggest concern
    5. Derek Fisher although I’d love to see Forest Whitley
    6. Jeff Bagwell

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  4. Where does baseball rank with me in the sports arena:
    1. MLB
    2. MILB
    3. Daytona 500 only.
    4. The Outdoor Channel
    10. Everything else.

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    • Unfortunately,more money – especially when gained via an arbitration battle – means significantly less performance. Salaries are inversely proportionate to player performance. Baseball is a matter of hunger. Once you eliminate the hunger by showering a player with money, most players lose their edge. Let’s hope Giles is an exception.

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  6. 1. MLB followed by College Football, College Basketball, and up until I watched “Concussion” – the NFL. But will watch the Super Bowl. 2. Critical Player – Team Sport so all starters but maybe McCann due to a thin and unproven bench. 3. Team Chemistry – I hope we don’t miss Beltran if he did as much as some say. 4. Upset – Tyler White. 5. Easy: Starting Nine in 1962.

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  7. What I am is pro-fan -especially pro-child fan and pro-fixed income adult fan. Sometimes these fans’ best interest is on the side of an owner pr owners; other times these fans’ best interest is on the side of an individual player or players. But if you automatically side with one or the other – the owners or the players – you will quickly find yourself on the wrong side for the fans.

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  8. Ranking of interest in sports:

    At this stage of my life I have significant interest in only baseball – MLB, MiLB, and college baseball.

    I have passing interest in college football, and minimal tolerance for college basketball.

    I would not watch an NFL, NBA, Professional or World Soccer game, or the Olympics [or boxing, or MMA, etc.], if you paid me. This was not the case 10 years ago – but in the past 10 years those ‘sports entertainment’ options have lost any semblance of credibility to me.

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  9. The most critical player[s] for the Astros in 2018 will be . . . in descending order, based on how much a disastrous year from the player would hurt our chances:

    1. Carlos Correa;
    2. George Springer;
    3. Justin Verlander;
    4. Gerrit Cole;
    5. Evan Gattis;
    6. Ken Giles;
    7. Jose Altuve;
    8. Alex Bregman;
    9. Will Harris;
    10. Chris Devenski;
    11. Lance McCullers, Jr.
    12. Yuli Gurriel;
    13. Brian McCann;
    14. Scott Morton;
    15. Brad Peacock;
    16. Josh Reddick;
    17. Joe Smith;
    18. Hector Rondon;
    19. Max Stassi;
    20. Tony Sipp;
    21. Derek Fisher;
    22. Jake Marisnick;
    23. Collin McHugh;
    24. Dallas Keuchel
    25. Max Stassi.

    If Correa and Springer don’t have good years -as good or better than last year – I don’t think we will even go to, much less win, the WS.

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  10. Labor vs Management. I probably tend to side with owners. Both sides have been wrong in the past. I think it’s good the players have an organization that represents the group, and historically has been fairly effective at it. MLB is riding a major gravy train right now and it behooves both sides to recognize that fact. Agents make theirs by stirring the pot, so agents gonna stir. Definitely I think minor leaguers ought to get paid more than they do.

    Sports: 1. College Basketball (hey, I’m a Dookie)
    2. MLB;
    3. NHL (got into this a few years ago when my son played. It really is the best team sport going, from a “team” standpoint, IMO)
    4. college football
    5. NBA
    6. NFL (politics aside, I’ve become more bored with the NFL over the pat 10-15 years, really since the Oilers left. You suck on the orange for 3 hours for very little juice, plus it’s over-analyzed and over-hyped)
    7. Olympics (this might be higher on the list if it happened more often)
    8. major golf tournaments

    Blanks:
    Critical player: Correa
    Worry: the post WS malaise that seems epidemic the last few years
    Upset: no candidate. Happy to leave it in the hands of Hinch/Luhnow
    Former Astro: I’ll second Zanuda and go with Bagwell

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    • RT… I forgot about golf which I watch only second to baseball but it wasn’t on the list. BTW has anybody been watching the Phoenix – Waste Management Open. Now that’s golf as a premo spectator sport. 216K in attendance today.

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  15. I’m not on either side. What I’ll say is that depending on which state a player’s home games occur he/she will end up paying 40-48% of his salary in taxes, fees, and the agent’s cut. Also consider that of any bonus about 40% goes directly to the government and the agent (if they wrote the contract right) gets another 2.5-5% off of it. The take home pay for all the players is still ridiculous, but remember that unless they invest their money wisely the money train ends the day they retire. Yeah, some players get into coaching, but they aren’t getting rich off that until they sit on an MLB bench again. Also, retirement benefits are given to players once they’ve reached a certain number of years of service – I think it might be 5 but it could be more. No one cares, but my aspirations of professional baseball ended for two reasons: first, I changed my throwing mechanics and ended up ruining my shoulder. Second, our CS department had professors who thought scheduling classes before noon was a crime and unthinkable. The NCAA doesn’t really care about that last one – be grateful for the opportunity to get an exercise science degree or don’t play a sport is their stance. But this extends to the guys who went to four year schools – you use of those nice scholarship years. I have a teammate who just went back to school at 40 in pursuit of a real degree (Good for him!). I have other teammates whose careers are managing at a Gold’s Gym, being pitching and hitting instructors, and selling insurance. These are all guys who made it to the major leagues, but in some cases their wives are the breadwinners with their public school teacher’s salaries.

    It’s been mentioned above (and many times before), but the problem is baseball is setup where you pay a player for past accomplishments and don’t get a good return on your investment. These players aren’t getting outrageous contracts because you can count on one hand the number of $150 million or more contracts that a team would offer again if given a chance. I think a lot of teams are testing the waters on using a non-competitive team. In some cases there may be ownership groups looking to sell and following the Drayton model. In others, they want their chance at Kris Bryant and Carlos Correa (maybe they’ll get Mark Appel…it happened to the Pirates multiple times).

    Rankings:
    1. MLB
    2. NCAAB
    3. NCAAF
    4. Non-annual competitions (World Cup, Olympics, etc)
    5. NFL
    6. Anything else

    Critical: Correa – I think his presence anchors the lineup and forces pitchers to pitch to the guys ahead of him. Also, his defense is generally excellent and underrated.
    Concern: Postseason innings. I think Keuchel and LMJ’s extended 2015 really hurt their 2016s. I hope the number of quality arms allows Hinch to ease guys into the season and not let someone get injured from overuse. People talk about the impact of NBA playoffs and Olympic appearances causing injuries and performance falloffs, but I think MLB playoffs and World Classic are also big factors.
    Upset: McHugh – he missed so much time last year, but was vital in 2015 and 2016 for this team. It would be disappointing to see him forced out.
    Wish: Too many to list – Nori Aoki is the big one, but from previous seasons I’d throw out Jed Lowrie and Scott Feldman. These guys were first class in Houston and didn’t leave the team how they wanted. Who else am I missing?

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  16. Note on Slow FA market:

    “Olney goes on to express skepticism that MLB teams are colluding against free agents, pointing out that several relievers and Lorenzo Cain have done quite well on the market. He also notes that big offers are on the table for Eric Hosmer and Yu Darvish. “

    So if you have several offers on your house but your realtor says “Wait, they will pay more” and they end up buying another house, does this mean there was “collusion “ by the buyers?

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  18. Along with wanting to have money available to pay the better free agent class leading into 2019, perhaps teams are asking themselves, “If I give JDM $300 million – what the heck do I offer Mike Trout? Part ownership of the club?”

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  19. Abogado . . . why don’t you drop your demand, sir!
    You won’t get the right answer, with numbers so high.
    You’ve got a sharp tongue, and I know you want a new sports car,
    but all early reports are, no one wants to buy.

    – You want too many up-front Franklins, Dude-
    those things don’t grow on trees, sir!
    It takes options and incentives to git it done!
    The players that you represent ain’t exactly Sale or Kershaw,

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  20. so its hard for us to believe that they’re the one.

    Abogado .. . you know Spring Training’s gonna start soon;
    if you want ’em to play before June,
    You’d better get real.
    You want to win big, but you know you ain’t throwin’ aces;
    If you want your boys runnin’ bases, you better shut up and deal.

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    • While the rest of the world watched the Super Bowl. I watched game 7 of the league championship. I still get chills watching those awesome Houston fans.
      It never gets old. O

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  25. George Springer and the Astros have agreed on a two year deal that will pay George $12 million per year for two years. The Agreements covers years 2 and 3 of his arbitration and eliminates hearings for those two years. George will have one more year of arbitration after that before being eligible for free agency in the 2021 season. This is news.

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    • Last night I watched the hour long recap of the World Series on MLB Network. In between replays of the action they had snippets of the interviews with Astros and Dodgers from right after the games. Every time Springer was on camera talking I couldn’t help but feel he must be one of the best teammates to have in the game. I’m glad they got this done for 2018 and 2019. Hopefully he stays healthy, happy, continues to excel, and warrants a multi-year deal before that last arbitration comes into play.

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    • Exactly what I was thinking Sandy. I was worried that George was feeling a little bad because he asked for $10 million and was offered $8 milllion. That should be wiped out by this new deal.
      I hope they are at least trying to rework Altuve’s deal – I don’t want him to have the wandering eye.

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    • The team owes him $6 million for 2018 and can take a team option to pay him $6.5 million in 2019, both of which are an insane deal for what he brings the team.
      Is there any chance they could stair step up and buy out a couple years of FA at the same time?
      e.g.
      – 2018 – $10 million
      – 2019 – $15 million
      -2020 – $25 million
      – 2021 – $30 million
      That would give him almost $15 million more the next two years – but he may not want to let his two seasons of FA to be bought out….

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      • i think we’re all assuming “worst ” case , i.e. “most expensive” for a guy like Altuve. But it may be wise for the Astros to wait and see if the apparently newfound discipline that teams are exercising this offseason will continue into next year when several guys of Altuve’s stature will be on the market. What looks like $30 mil/yr for the big dogs may only end up being 25 (“only”, sheesh!). Point being: prices seem to be going down at the moment so why not ride out this swing of the pendulum.

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    • I don’t know…that could be fun:
      Arbiter: “Astros, please detail why you feel George Springer is worth less than his requested $X”
      Astros: “Well, he gives 100% on every play and that concerns us. He’s already hurt himself running through a wall, other pitchers have thrown at him, and he swings so hard that he’s sure to throw his back out someday! Heck, I threw my back out last week putting on a neck tie.”
      Arbiter: “Is there anything else? Is that all you’ve got?”
      Astros: “Pretty much.”
      Arbiter: “…”

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  29. Great first step with George today. He’s been recognized. And he’ll still make a huge payday in a couple of years. But in the meantime, he’s the first step towards keeping the club intact, at least for the time being. I can’t help but to think that a Luhnow next goal is to reach a long term agreement with Altuve. It could happen soon.

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    • My brother pointed something out to me a bit ago. Boras does not usually get a deal done for a client without taking full advantage of the free argent market. So if we keep Altuve, it will likely go down to the wire. And it might be too damn long and too damn expensive.

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  31. What they said: “He posted an 11.74 ERA across 7 2/3 innings during the Astros’ postseason run.”

    What they meant: He will make $4.6 million dollars in the 2018 regular season thanks to the arbitrator’s decision. But forgive us if we are entertaining serious doubts as to whether he needs to even be considered for the post-season roster next year.

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    • You know I just looked up Billy Wagner’s post season numbers. In 14 postseason games (between HOU, NYM, BOS, ATL) he had a 10.03 ERA and 1.971 WHIP. He had matching 18.00 ERAs his first two post seasons. Let’s see if Mr. Giles learned something or implodes.

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  32. What they said: “I’m happy that we reached a multiyear deal with George, recognizing his accomplishments and his contribution, but also recognizing there’s more to come.”

    What they meant: “My kids wear George Springer pajamas -don’t yours?”

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  33. Every team in the AL West knows exactly what they are doing.
    The Astros’ projected payroll is $22 million more than last season and they are fairly well set with their team.
    The Angels’ projected payroll is $4 million more than last season and they are fairly well set with their team.
    The Mariners projected payroll is exactly the same as last season’s and their team is fairly well set.
    The Oakland projected payroll is almost exactly the same as last season’s and they are fairly well set with their team.
    Texas’s payroll is almost $30 million less than last season’s and that is what they want because they are going to pretend to compete this year and get ready for 2019 where they will spend bundles of money in free agency.
    This division looks at what is there for them and no team has been caught by surprise and they all seem to have a grasp of the market, unlike the AL East, where one team has it together and the other four don’t seem to know what to do.

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  34. The starting pitcher I am most concerned about this year is Lance McCullers, Jr.
    The talent is certainly there. The questions I have – and would love to hear anyone on the blog’s opinions on – are:

    1. his durability – i.e. can he stay off the DL?
    2. his in-game stamina – i.e. assuming he stays off the DL, can he average at least 6.2 innings per start for us?
    3. his repertoire – i.e. can he get command of his fastball, keep his curve catchable, and find a way to go all ‘Chris Devenski’ circle of death on people from time to time with a new, improved version of a change-up?
    4. his ability to excel under pressure and win the big game when we need it – i.e. will the Verlander/Peacock/Morton syndrome rub off on him?

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    • When I look at LMJ I keep thinking about Mike Hampton, another bull dog type pitcher.
      – Durability? This is the most important and the question that is toughest to answer. But George Springer managed to turn around from Mr. DL to Mr. 162 games in 2016, so I am going to say yes, he will stay healthy.
      – In game stamina – I don’t think he will ever be the 6.2 IP guy. I just get the feeling that he will continue to be a big pitch count guy. Just my gut
      – Well if he does get a circle of death change, then I might be wrong about the 6.2 IPs
      – Yeah he wobbled big time in game 7 of the WS though even with that he did not give up a run. I remember what he did in Game 4 of the ALCS (6 IP and 1 run) and Game 7 of the ALCS (4 IP of 1 hit ball) in shutting the door on the Yanks and say – hell yes he can excel under pressure.

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    • Bill, I believe LMJ and Giles are the very definition of young gun pitchers with a lot of talent who have not yet learned all there is to know about their craft.
      However, I think being in the WS will help them. I think being around this group of veteran pitchers will help them and that they are getting there.
      In their defense, there are a bunch of pitchers on the Red Sox, the Yankees and the Dodgers who got abused by the Astros in the playoffs, and nobody out there seems to indicating that they are concerned about their abilities, so I am going to take up for our guys, because they gave up runs, but we won.
      Injuries that hit LMJ, I just can’t comment on because I don’t know enough about them.

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      • I was very pleased to see that McCullers was in ST early with Verlander. I think he just needs to be around someone more patient, experienced, and able to handle adversity than he is. Keuchel is a little more experienced, but if anything is less patient, and does not exactly excel at handling adversity. We needed a new ace for our younger pitchers, and JV could really help.

        As far as Giles, I am not sure what he needs. He seems to expect to be able to strike everybody out with two heaters right in their wheelhouse and one nasty slider in the dirt that our catcher may or may not be able to corral. Against good teams with talented and patient hitters, that dog won’t hunt. He’s going to have to learn to pitch. Maybe Hector Rondon can help him – if he can solve his own control and BB/9 problems this year.

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      • Giles has to keep his slider in the strike zone or close enough to make hitters chase. If he fails to do so he becomes Brad Lidge. Also, hit fastball is not always explosive. If a hitter is looking for a slider and gets a fastball, that doesn’t matter. If they are resigned to taking any sliders and dialed in on a fastball, it matters quite a lot.

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  35. Here is the Baseball fans union representative’s message to the MLB players’ union representative: ‘Don’t boycott me, Bro!’

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  36. In the NL West:
    The Dodgers projected payroll is $70 million less than last season’s and they are fairly set with their team.
    The Diamondbacks projected payroll is already $22 million more than last season and they are not set with their team but can’t afford more salary.
    The Rockies projected payroll is already $5 million over last season’s and they can’t be real happy with their rotation but are not appearing to be ready to go after more payroll.
    The Padres projected payroll is already $9 million over last years and their team is not set and they need help.
    The Giants projected payroll is already $8 million over last years and is the highest in the majors and they are trying to subtract, even though their team is still not where they want it. They are struggling because they need more, but want desperately to get below the cut off line on payroll.

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  37. As to 1OP and team salaries, the Rangers already have committed $116 million for 2019. Beltre comes off but they owe Fielder ($16 million) The Astros for 2019 show $84 million committed. That might explain a slow FA market and those non-long contracts.

    And Cole Hamels turned down Houston to go to DFW and get that WS ring.

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    • AC, that $84 million doesn’t include any of the Astros players in arbitration for 2019, of which there are quite a few, including Correa’s first year.
      Of Course, Texas’s $116 million doesn’t include their arbitration guys either.

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      • What is in the Rangers total is 3 more years of Choo at $20-21 million and Fielder for 3 more years at $24 million. It was odd the Rangers had no money to even bid on Darvish. I agree with the other 3 teams being set and Improved. I think the Rangers will struggle to finish last. Angels, Mariners and A’s are going to beat somebody. Appears that Jon Daniels is not the genius at all.

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  38. Mets sign Todd Frazier to play 3B for 2/17 million. Less than expected.
    Do you think the Royals want to give Hosmer a seven year deal because the Alex Gordon deal worked out so well?

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  39. I’m pro owner
    I watch: Major league baseball. Period. And any baseball games my grandsons are playing in.
    Most critical player: Correa gotta get a full season of this dude.
    I will be upset if White, and Fisher aren’t given a chance to contribute this season.
    I wish Wags had been with these guys when they won the World Series.
    A second choice would have been J.R. Richards, but he didn’t play as long as Wags did.
    Very good news about Springer! He and Altuve are the heart and soul of this team. Pay the man, without him there is a black hole in the outfield!
    Ya’ll were talking about having Verlander rub off on McCullers. Lance HAS the stuff……his problem is the grey matter between his ears. I have high hopes for McHugh to have a nice bounce back year, so Peacock can do his “thang” outta he was pen! Charlie Morton made a comment last year, that 2018 would be his last year to pitch……but I think that might have been BEFORE he had the success he had in 2017. Counting down the days⚾!

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  40. Continuing to look at baseball’s teams by division with the AL East:
    The Yankees projected payroll is currently $34 million below last season’s, which was above the penalty cap so they are in payroll reset mode. They would like a couple of infielders but may not choose to take a chance on going over the payroll line so they might go with youngsters.
    I believe they will stay under the cap and do whatever it takes to sign Machado long term in 2019.
    The Boston Red Sox are frozen in time. Their projected payroll is $14 million less than last season’s but still way over the penalty line and they still want JD Martinez. They claim they are happy with their team as is but nobody believes it for a minute. Boston has spent themselves into a corner.
    Toronto’s projected payroll is $9 million less than last season’s but it is still way up there for a team that spends to keep up with NY and Boston, but never gets there. There payroll is so high that they haven’t been active in this year’s free agent market and they will lose 3 of their best players to free agency in 2019.
    Tampa Bay’s projected payroll is, surprisingly, $7 million above last season’s, even though they traded their All-Time best player in Longoria. The Ray’s are like Oakland. They try, but they just can’t.
    Baltimore is weird. Their current projected payroll is a whopping $45 million less than last season’s, but they haven’t gone after hardly any free agents because Baltimore always waits and gets the absolute lowest deals on players that they can and usually ends up with the high strikeout guys. Baltimore loses their four best players to free agency in 2019 unless they pull off miracles.
    The AL East is the perfect reflection of the current free agent market. All five teams are frozen in the payroll dept, because they have either overspent, or see that they cannot compete with the Yankees, or they are waiting for next year’s incredible crop of free agent players and are hoarding their cash for that.

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