If the season ended today, who would be the Astros’ MVP?

Sometimes, what seems like an easy question does not look so easy when you peer beneath the surface. It would seem that one man, Jose Altuve, is the Astros’ MVP to this point in the season, but is that the best answer?

Jose Altuve.

  • Argument For. The Mighty Might leads the team in Games played, PAs, ABs, Hits, Doubles, SBs, and the holy quadriverate (it’s not a word, but it should be) with a .367/.422/.568/.990. Oh and his 6.9 WAR tops the team. In the four games he missed this season, the team is 2-2, while they are 74-46 with him.
  • Argument Against. Despite playing far more games than the other candidates, he is not leading the team in any of the three “big” categories of runs scored, HRs or RBIs. In addition, with Runners in Scoring Position (RISP) his numbers dip to .306 BA/.386 OBP/.828 OPS, which are still good numbers. And then ….with 2 outs and RISP, he is a very pedestrian .255 BA/.375 OBP/.758 OPS.

Carlos Correa.

  • Argument For. The Astros are 56-28 in games he played and 20-20 without him. His 4.7 WAR in 84 games would project into a 6.9 WAR over 124 games. He had an excellent .318/.392/.947 with RISP and an even gaudier .340/.421/1.051 with two outs and RISP. His 64 Runs/20 HRs/ 67 RBIs over 84 games is at a 123 runs, 39 home run/129 RBI pace over 162 games.
  • Argument Against. We can project all we want, but he has missed (through no fault of his own except a poorly conceptualized head first slide into a catcher’s pads) 32% of the Astros games.

George Springer.

  • Argument For. The Astros are 68-36 in games he played and only 8-12 when he has been out. Despite missing 20 games he still leads the team with 86 runs scored and 28 HRs and is two out of the team lead with 70 RBIs. His numbers with RISP are strong – .310 BA/.394 OBP/.980 OPS and with two outs and RISP they are unworldly – .450 BA/.569 OBP/1.444 OPS. Also as the Astros’ leadoff hitter he has set the tone for the team throughout their excellent start to the season.
  • Argument Against His overall numbers – .303 BA/.378 OBP/.943 OPS are very good but not as good as Altuve’s or Correa’s. He “only” has a 4.5 WAR so far this season.

Dallas Keuchel.

  • Argument For. His 9-0 record prior to going on the DL was a prime driver for the Astros great start to the season. Despite missing almost 2 months of the season, his 11 wins still lead the team, and among starters he leads in ERA (2.58) Win % (84.6%), and WHIP (1.086). His ERA and win % would be leading the AL if he had enough innings to be a qualifier.
  • Argument Against. It is the same argument against most pitchers – how can a guy who in this case has only played in 13% of the games be MVP? Yes, they are 13-3 when he pitches, but they are a darned good 63-45 when he doesn’t. Maybe if he had not missed those two months and was, say, 17-3 right now he could make a stronger case for team MVP.

Close, but no cigar.

Marwin Gonzalez. Very strong numbers, including leading the team with 72 RBIs, but the team is a puzzling excellent 17-4 when MarGo does not play.

Brad Peacock. He has been excellent and very valuable and done everything they asked him to including a surprising 10-2 record, but he is a step behind even Keuchel in value.

Ken Giles. After some early season bobbles, Giles is an excellent 24 out of 27 in saves. What is keeping him off the elite list is the fact that he has just not been given that many save opportunities this season with the team’s offense pouring it on in so many games. His ability lately to get more than 3 outs is raising his value for a team missing Will Harris in the set-up spot.

Looking this over, it feels like the Astros’ MVP needs to be either Jose Altuve or George Springer.

So who is your choice and why?

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92 responses to “If the season ended today, who would be the Astros’ MVP?”

  1. Because we had no game last night I was watching the MLB Network studio show. They were talking about Andrelton Simmons. In addition to his amazing defense he’s putting up some great offensive numbers (for a SS) as well – .293 / .348 / .451 with 13 HR, 57 RBI, and 18 SB. His 6.3 WAR are second amongst all position players. They followed with a discussion on whether WAR was even meaningful when comparing players and questioned whether, if you could pick today, you would take Simmons over any of a group of ten other SS (Seager, Correa, Lindor, Crawford, Cosart, Gregorius, etc.). However, the more important point is that the mentioned he’s second in WAR to a certain player that Dan referenced above. Altuve’s 6.9 WAR is tops not just for Houston but all of baseball. Also, where would our July have ended if Altuve hadn’t hit .485 for the month?

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    • So if my choice is between Andrelton Simmons and Carlos Correa….. This almost feels like picking Jake Marisnick over George Springer because of defensive value.
      Simmons turns 28 in September
      Correa turns 23 in September
      Simmons has a lifetime OPS of .692 and is .799 this year
      Correa has a lifetime OPS of .864 and was .966 before being injured this year.
      Simmons in 457 ABs has 62 runs scored, 13 HR and 57 RBIs
      Correa in only 325 ABs has 64 runs scored, 20 HRs and 67 RBIs

      I know Simmons has been healthier (this year). I know he is a better fielder at SS. But anybody picking him over Correa in a draft is an idiot.

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      • It is no longer advisable to pick Marisnick over Springer because of defense. Fangraphs says that Springer in CF is the best defensive player on the entire team and it’s not close. I will link that here:
        https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=21&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
        If this came through then you will have to go to the second page of the Astros’ defensive leaderboards to find Jake with a negative rating in CF.
        George Springer is the center fielder he was always destined to be and even today is misplayed when he is not in CF. You will notice that Marisnick is better this year in RF than he is in CF, but the Astros still have not figured this out.
        I am lucky to have eyes and stats to back up what I have been saying for three years. Put Springer in CF and work everyone else around him. This is not rocket science, except to the people who are supposed to know all about their players!

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      • Springer has always been the best center fielder in MLB not playing center field. And the really special thing about George is that he has quietly gone about his business and acted as the real leader on the club, always embracing his teammates, even the one that was handed his position for no logical or statistical reason.

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    • Altuve was unbelievable in July, and it was a huge offensive month for the whole team. In August his hitting Is down a bit for him (.324 BA/.893OPS) but still very good. What sticks out is that he had 21 RBIs in July in August he has 4 HRs and 6 RBIs which means his 23 hits have only brought in 2 base runners besides himself. This kind of matches the eyeball test where it looks like he is over-trying with guys on base.

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  2. Besides Correa, (which I agree would be idiotic) I wouldn’t trade the 23 year old Bregman for Simmons. Alex is starting to come into his own and I feel will be that Biggio type player that I projected when we drafted him. I watched him for three years at LSU and also saw Dansby Swanson (#1 pick). I felt then that Bregman was the better player and still do. I think the Braves, who have watched Swanson’s struggles would trade him for Bregman in a heartbeat, if they could. That also would be idiotic on the Stros part if they did that.

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  4. Altuve has been the most consistent producer. But Carlos Correa is the most valuable player in our entire organization. Altuve and Springer are extremely talented, and I would hate to lose either of them; but we have just learned once again that those two combined – plus everyone else on our team not named Correa – cannot make us great the way Carlos does. Carlos Correa is the anchor and center-of-gravity of our line-up – and our team. We survived – and thrived – despite losing everyone else. When we lost Carlos, however, we became just another slightly above mediocre team.

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      • Of course, a lot of those ‘without Springer’ games were also without Correa, so I don’t think you can make a one-to-one comparison. Secondly, unfortunately, the Correa DL stint is still not over, and with the Nats, the Angels, and the Rangers up next, I think we could see the ‘without-Correa’ win/loss record look significantly worse soon.

        If you were wanting to make a one-to-one correlation, and see how it falls out, I would think the better correlation anyway would be to throw out all games in which both Correa and Springer were out, then compare teh average runs-scored by the team per game with Correa in the line-up vs. without, compared to average runs scored by the team per game with and without Springer

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      • You know me – I like a challenge, Mr. Bill.
        Correa has missed 26 games that Springer played in – those are games 13-15, 41, 46, 47, 64, 85, 92, 94-99, 113-116 and 118 – 124.
        In those 26 games the Astros are 14-12 and averaged 4.8 runs per game (their average for the year is 5.63 runs per game)

        Springer has missed 6 games that Correa played in – those are games 19, 21, 22, 29, 40 and 62.
        In those games the Astros are 2-4 though they did score 5.8 runs per game (slightly tilted by 12 runs scored in game 40)

        With both of them out of the lineup (games 100-112 and 117) the team was 6-8 and scored 4.8 runs per game. Now they scored 14 and 16 runs in two of those games and averaged 3.2 runs in the other 12 games….

        So, I don’t know what this all means – without Correa they played a little above .500 without Springer under .500 but scored more runs per game without Springer….

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      • I think it means what we already knew – that we can debate among ourselves which of Springer, Correa, and Altuve is the single most important contributor, but one thing we know for certain is that this is a better team when all three are in the line-up together and are healthy.

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  7. dan i think the tricky part of your question is “if the season ended today”. i agree with bill that correa is the mvp of our organization long term, but altuve isnt terribly far behind. if i pick between the two for this season, ending today, it has to be altuve. hard to give the nod to correa when he has missed over 1/3 of the season and altuve has been out there earning the highest war on the team. once carlos comes back, he very well may overtake altuve by season’s end.

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  8. I think it is a really tough question – each of the main three guys bring something special to the game. Altuve can hit almost anything, gets on almost every game and can turn the DP from almost any angle or while catching throws from his head to his toes. Springer gives them as special weapon in the leadoff spot (though as J.Marshall pointed out) not as special since coming back from the DL, is a tremendous fielder, and seems to be the heart of the team in putting fun into the game. Correa gives them something that is rare, a SS that can hit, hit for power and hit in the clutch and at an age that most players are still a year or two away from the majors. It is rare for an organization to develop three such superb players from scratch.
    Yes, we want them all back and well headed into the playoffs…..

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  9. 90% of life is showing up, so nod to Altuve. But I’m really glad that’s its a tough question because it means Correa and Springer have stepped it up this year to the levels we have been hoping for. And I’d give a little more love to Marwin. The numbers he’s put up while playing 7 different positions (all pretty well) and the vast improvement in his plate discipline are quite remarkable.

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  10. My choice is Altuve, but he is no CC nor Springer.

    This reminds me of going to Panera Bread. You choose a muffin, but when you sit down , you wish you chose the cinnamon roll your wife chose. Then you have to beg for a bite, but don’t want to share and…………….

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  12. *Altuve*……hands down.
    OP…..I read the ESPN article about Verlander, it really seems like he’d like to pitch in October!! Please….oh….PLEASE!!!

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  14. Where have all the hitters gone?
    Long time passing
    Where have all the hitters gone?
    Long time ago
    Where have all the hitters gone?
    To the dugout, bat in hand
    When will they ever learn?
    When will they ever learn?

    Take it away Mr. Bill

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  15. AC45 – You may think this strange but I was singing these same words & song (except “to the dugout”) to myself this morning while I thought about why we can’t seem to score runs. However, It’s obvious that the Astros have a big problem and they better get it resolved or we’ll see one of the greatest collapses in baseball history. I hope not.

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  16. And this wasn’t one of their best pitchers. At least Reddick showed up. I know I sound like a broken record, but we can’t hang with these guys without the threat of a lights out pitcher. Just say’n.

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  17. The lead is now down to 11.5 games.

    The pitching match-up does not look good for an Astros win tonight.

    This swoon looks to get far worse before it gets better.

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  18. I hate to be a fault finder but this is reality. Since the ASB 16/20. That’s .444. If you extrapolate that you get 92/70. Is that good enough to win the division? With the way we’re playing now, even if we get get into the playoffs we might get our clock cleaned in the first series. “The Horror, The Horror”.

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      • i read this and i thought hold on there a minute tim. but after i looked at the rate that teams not named astros would have to win i agree. its not impossible. but i think la has to go 25 – 12 the rest of the way to get to 90 wins. that can be done but its 13 games over .500 from a team that got this far with 5 over .500 highly unlikely. the astros at present are 28 count em 28 games over .500

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  19. Talk about mixed emotions. Was watching the highlights on MLB of
    Angels vs. Rangers. Sure want the Angels to lose, but found it so enjoyable to see them beat the crap out of the Rangers. Astros better get ready to play this weekend or it could get ugly quick.

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  20. The Astros look a lot like the 2016 Astros.
    Centeno/Stassi is like having Castro.
    Fisher is like an injured Rasmus.
    Davis is like an injured Valbuena.
    Marwin is suddenly like the 2016 Marwin, flailing away at offspeed stuff.
    Beltran is like our 2016 DH.
    Bregman, Altuve, Springer and Gurriel are the same as they were and fill the 1-4 spots like we had last year., but no Correa.
    Marisnick is hitting like 2016 Jake, but not performing as well in CF.
    Keuchel is back but no LMJ.
    Reddick is the guy who makes us a little better team than the August, 2016 team.
    When all the injured players are back, we could become like the first-half Astros, but it is so hard to get momentum going again.
    The big difference this year is the lead in the AL West. That may give the Astros time to get their mojo back.
    Altuve is my MVP so far.

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  21. I predict the Astros will get swept at home against the Nats. It’ll be case-in-point why hurlers like Fiers, Morton et all should NOT be on the playoff roster. They need Keuchel and McCullers to 100%, able to pitch on 4 days rest in October, and they need to cobble together — combining Peacock and McHugh — into a 3rd starter. THAT squad can win. But Morton, Fiers, Musgrove, and Martes need to be OFF the playoff roster.

    With my powers of prediction, I am calling it now. This team CAN will, but only if…

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  22. If they are light on SPs in the postseason, they can have the luxury of carrying extra bats, and perhaps even 3 catchers. That’s why Fisher and White need as many ABs they can muster. The upper brass needs to get them in as many big league games as possible. Think key pinch hits in the postseason!

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    • Agree about getting bats but they have JD Davis and he’s hitting a paltry .167/.310/.250/.560. That ain’t cuttin’ the mustard. Fisher is a little better but not much. Personally, I think they were showcasing Davis as potential trade bait. I suspect we’ll have 12 pitchers on the playoff roster and yes, Morton, Fiers, Musgrove, and Martes will probably be on it. I wonder where we would be with Nori Aoki still here. Boy did that trade ever suck big time.

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  24. We are 8-13 since trading away Nori Aoki. There is no help at Fresno. Tony Sipp did throw a scoreless inning for Corpus – surely a major thrill for those fans.

    However, McCann, Gattis, McCullers, Sipp, Feliz and Correa are all on the DL. With the exception of the Dodgers who have Kershaw, Wood, and Bellinger on the DL is there any other team that can expect to get so many contributers and/or stars back?

    Our 9 remaining games against the Angels and 6 against SEA concern me. The team needs to get it together, focus, and find a way to win many of those games.

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  25. Sometimes baseball is a very simple game – so often poor performance can be traced to how many ABs or IPs are being taken by inferior players. Last year the hitting suffered because they had too many question marks past the top four players. Right now we have too many ABs being taken by Stassi, Centeno (who is human again after his early success), Davis and Fisher. Throw this in with slumps by Springer, Marwin and others and we are no longer seeing crooked number innings. And it has not been because of the opposing pitchers – it has been because of who is hitting or rather not hitting. I sure hope they get healthy soon, but as we saw with Keuchel and Springer, the guys don’t come off the DL guns blazing – they need time to get back to where they were.

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  27. Yeah Devin, I think losing Aoki was a loss. He certainly is not the athlete that Fisher is and Fisher has what I think is a bright future. But for the stretch run and potentially the post season, yes, I think I’d prefer to have the veteran Aoki around this year. Now of course, if Liriano becomes a lights out loogie over the next 5 weeks, then I might accept not having Nori with us. But I liked him.

    I think it’s great that we have 9 games remaining against the Angels. We lead the division by 11.5 and fully control our own destiny.

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  28. It is always interesting how when a team is in the offensive doldrums that some of their best contact ends up in the fielder’s gloves. Marwin was on 2nd and Beltran strokes a gapper to left center, but the OF ran it down.

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    • And then Marisnick (who op noted is inferior to Springer) makes a poor throw home on a sac fly and we are down 1-0 again.

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      • Jake seems to throw poorly from CF. Maybe there is evidence to refute that, but I agree Springer makes the throw more frequently than not.

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      • Jake was flat footed on that throw. He had all kinds of time to get behind the catch and give himself momentum towards the plate. That gives him more accuracy and velocity. He looked lazy.

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    • Stassi makes up for hitting into the DP last night with a dinger and Bregman continues his extra base assault with a 3 run HR.

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  33. Off the subject – Rich Hill threw 9 innings of no hit ball and lost the no-no and the game in the 10th.
    Also Tropical Storm Harvey is headed for the Gulf Coast.
    So my mind crosses TS Harvey with Rich Hill and jumps to Harvey Haddix. Haddix did Hill 3 better – in 1959 – throwing 12 perfect innnings for the Pirates against the Braves. In the 13th there was an error, a sac bunt, an intentional walk to Hank Aaron and then Joe Adcock hit a HR – but Aaron thought it hit off the wall and walked off – so it ended 1-0.

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  34. Where is Ken Giles?? Is he hurt?? The dude hasn’t pitched since last Sat, but there wasn’t a Giles sighting in the bullpen tonight. Ok……Hinch, let’s hear it.
    The guys FINALLY woke up tonight…..let’s hope they can keep it up tomorrow for Keuchel!

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  35. Fiers pitched a very good ballgame. He’s been dogged by some of us lately. He deserves a nod tonight.

    Bregman is a hitter. He didn’t do much in the first half when the other bats were going nuts. If they all wake up, we’ll be making it tough for good pitchers to work their way through our nine.

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    • Woof. Woof.
      Maybe he read our stuff and started to pitch, again. Or maybe Hinch told him he was headed to the bullpen and Fiers was pitching for his spot. Again

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  36. Our fearsome foursome of rehabbers at Corpus Christi:

    Gattis – 2 games at CC – 0-5, 2 Ks, 2 BBs
    Harris – 1 game at CC – 1.0 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K
    Sipp – 1 game at CC- 1.0 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 1 BB, 2 Ks
    Feliz – 1 game at CC – 1.0 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K

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    • 45, They are 14 and 11 in his starts at this point. I don’t see where he fits into a post season roster, but as a 5th man, he’s been more than serviceable if you look at his season. The son of a gun still leads the team in IP too.

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      • Dave, Fiers and Feldman are a real enigma to me. If you look at their careers, both have a blank WAR for this year. Feldman career 58-84 and Fiers 42-45. For some reason, their losses seem to stick in the mind, but not equally with the wins. (And yes, I am only using Wins as a comparison ONLY)

        13 years for Feldman WHIP 1.356 and 7 for Fiers WHIP 1.265

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  38. .326/.397/.636/1.034

    Bregman since the All Star break. Can’t be too many guys in all of MLB with those numbers in the second half. If Detroit needs him as part of a Verlander deal, we’re not getting Verlander.

    Up 12.5 again. The sky is not falling.

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    • Honestly, the sky was never falling. If you think this team can blow a 11.5 game lead with less than 40 games left (and I know you aren’t part of the Panic Brigade) then you haven’t been following this team. Yes, they could still lose home field advantage in the A.L. playoffs, but the division race is over.

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    • If Bregman ever puts in a first half like his second halves have been, the Astros might have 3/4 of the AL All-Star infield.

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  41. I think the Astros are set for the year. Unless someone terrific falls into their laps for a reasonable cost at a position of want, I don’t think they will add, I believe they see the same thing I have been looking at for the last two weeks and have avoided talking about: if they stay the same and get their players back, they are good enough to win it all and will be able to afford to replace their players who will leave in free agency this off season and be a better team than they are this year, for the same amount of payroll.
    The key to a successful playoffs is the health of their players and I think they have carefully thought this out.
    From what I am hearing, and what I see from their schedule, they have a chance to add to their lead in the next 5-6 weeks or so on every team chasing them.
    A healthy LMJ in the playoffs is a real key as to how far they can go.
    I see no need to jeopardize the future of the team for years to come by adding an anchor like Verlander’s deal to the 2018 and 2019 team.
    I thought I’d put this out there before I even see how Keuchel matches up with Strasberg tonight, because, if they win tonight’s game I will be flying too high to reason things out and put them to pen.

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      • They get McCann back to catch Keuchel and he has a .340 average against Strasberg in 20 ABs. That is a big piece of the puzzle to add back healthy. He also can talk to the rest of the lineup about Strasberg. Half of Brevin McGattis is much better than none.
        Did you say lose? NONOTNAYNYET. Splat!

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    • im glad you are thinking like that op, it mirrors my own. but this is what you thought just 13 days ago.

      ” I’m extremely disappointed in the failure of the GM of my favorite team to help his team get more ammo at the deadline.
      I’m not surprised that his small group of adoring groupies are saying we still have the best team out there. I am not the best of hearing but my corrected eyesite is 20-20 and what I see are a bunch of pitchers who will not match up well against the pitching of other playoff caliber teams.
      In answer to those who say our hitters are better and they could carry us I say that I look back at how we have faired lately against other team’s #1 and and #2 pitchers in the last month and we did not hit those guys.
      I’ll just name the two this week who beat us, Verlander and Archer”.

      glad you came around.

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      • I didn’t come around.
        With what is happening in my life, I have just finally had a chance to think it through, look at who is controllable, who is expensive, who is going to be leaving, what the market value will be, what the advantages are to letting guys walk and how we go about it.
        But, mostly, it’s about what the payroll will be versus other teams and who our prospects are, what positions they play, when they are ready and how long will we have them.
        The payroll ceiling will be around $150 million by my calculations, with a little wiggle room if we make the playoffs the previous year, or if we cannot sign international free agents or have late draft picks in every round, which means we spend less on them.
        I have some other thoughts, but I’m very tired and will try to get back to them later.

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  42. You guys should see the fight the Tigers and Yankees this afternoon! Miggy Cabrera and Austin Romine, got after it BIG time…..benches cleared, ejections ,you name it!!

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  43. Please keep the folks along the Texas coast and even here in the Houston area in your thoughts and prayers. Hurricane Harvey is likely to hit as a Cat 3, but the worst part of it is that because there are two large Highs around – it is likely to hang around for days dumping 20″ of rain or more over a large area. Pray that it defies the predictions and pushes out of here quickly. Thanks

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  45. Cheap run in the 11th – bunt single where JD Davis showed no urgency on it. Then on appeal Zimmerman’s HBP was reversed which ended up with him striking out on a wild pitch and then a short sac fly put the Nats ahead.

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  46. Well……that went south in a hurry. Tough break for Clippard. Yeah it does feel like a playoff game, a one sided playoff game. JEEZE.

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  47. The good news is that Keuchel is pitching again and well. He screwed up his own game though, and nobody really helped bail him out much. In spite of the late long ball, J.D. Davis is simply not ready to play the ML version of baseball. Good pen work. Giles looks ready. So did Fat Albers. Clippard got a break and then he didn’t. Baseball is a funny game.

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