Twofer Tuesday: Where the Astros came from and where they are going

A couple of areas to look at today……

1. How the Astros were built?

The Astros are an interesting combination of old, new, cast-offs, trade chips and free agents. Here is a look at how the guys who have contributed the most got here.

Thank Ed Wade. There are 4 left-overs from the previous regime, but 3 of them are extremely important contributors. Draft choices George Springer (1st rd 2011) and Dallas Keuchel (7th rd 2009) and young (at the time) Latin free agents – Jose Altuve and Michael Feliz.

Freebies. Picked up off waivers – Will Harris, Nori Aoki, Collin McHugh and Tony Sipp

Quasi-Rule 5. The Red Sox made Marwin Gonzalez a Rule 5 draft pick and then immediately traded him to the Astros for Marco Duarte (who?). This was in Jeff Luhnow’s first month as GM.

Home Grown (Post-Wade). Carlos Correa (#1 overall in 2012), Alex Bregman (#2 overall in 2015), Lance McCullers Jr. (Supplemental 1st round 2012) – Nice to have two All-Stars come out of the same round!

Trader Jeff. Brian McCann (2016 trade with Yanks), Evan Gattis and James Hoyt (2015 Mike Foltynewicz trade with Braves), Jake Marisnick and Francis Martes (along with Colin Moran – 2014 Jarred Cosart trade with the Marlins), Mike Fiers (2015 Josh Hader, Domingo Santana, etc. trade with the Brewers), Joe Musgrove (2012 J.A. Happ trade with the Blue Jays), Ken Giles (2015 Vince Velasquez trade with Phillies), Chris Devenski (Player to be named later – 2012 Brett Myers trade with White Sox), Brad Peacock (2013 Jed Lowrie trade with A’s), and David Paulino (2013 Jose Veras trade with Tigers)

Those Free Agents are not Free. Yuli Gurriel (2016), Josh Reddick (2016), Carlos Beltran (2016), Charlie Morton (2016), Luke Gregerson (2014).

So, pretty easy to see that the Astros front office has used every avenue available to them to build one of the best teams in baseball.

2. What’s the rest of 2017 look like?

The rest of 2017 looks straightforward for the Astros. Win in their division and they will be in good shape. Heading into Monday night’s game against Seattle….

  • Home. 33 games (SEA – 6, TB – 4, TOR – 3, ARI -2, OAK – 3, WSN – 3, TEX – 3, NYM – 3, CHW – 3, LAA – 3)
  • Away (as though it matters). 37 (BAL – 3, PHI – 3, DET – 3, CHW – 3, TEX – 6, ARI – 2, LAA – 6, SEA – 3, OAK – 4, BOS – 4)
  • Games against teams with winning records. 14 out of 70
  • Games against teams with losing records. 56 out of 70 – note some teams like their division mates, the Rangers, Angels and Mariners are close to .500 and could be above when they play them.
  • Division games. 34 of the 70 games remaining are in the division and 19 of those games are on the road, including 6 each against the Rangers and Angels.

Considering the size of the Astros lead and how they are playing, the road ahead does not look difficult, but they need to continue to go out and grind out wins, series by series.

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87 responses to “Twofer Tuesday: Where the Astros came from and where they are going”

  1. Our Astros are better than ever – but as last night proved, they are by no means invincible. The rest of the way is going to be a war – and the opposition is serving notice that the 2nd half of the season is not going to be anything near the cakewalk the first half of the season was. Last night the team that played better – indeed, quite a bit better – wound up winning. And, of course, that was not the Astros.

    Today I repent in sackcloth and ashes, wash my mouth out with soap, and give Scott Servais a whole lot more credit. Truly, last night, there was no ‘separation’.

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    • I think the most disappointing thing last night was that the majority of pitchers used by the Astros (4 out of 7) did not do their jobs. That was McCullers (who has me worried), Devenski, Gregerson and Sipp.
      That was unusual for this team – usually one guy may have problems but the rest of the pitchers pick him up.
      Of course it is never over until it is over – the ’51 Dodgers and Giants proved that. The team needs to continue to show its resiliency after losses. That has kept them moving forward even through tougher patches.

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      • Seattle definitely came into the game with a mission and purpose. In the last 4 games how many times have we had the bases loaded and not gotten a run out of it. Maybe it’s mental but hopefully not infectious as we saw last night. We battled back but couldn’t seem to get get over the top and the pitching wasn’t there.
        Agree with Dan that there is concern with McCullers. Something doesn’t seem right. Seattle was hitting the ball hard so the law of averages caught up with us. Weren’t they picked to contend with us this year? Not sure that we were in focus. Lets see what happens tonight.

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  2. I’m looking forward to Dallas K. and Mchugh coming back. I’m hoping then that our rotation will average longer starts and save the bullpen a bit. (But), I think we need another reliever (Brad Hand?. Giles makes me nervous with the game close.

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    • Yes, he of the 0 blown saves when starting the 9th inning should make you nervous. I assume Red Sox fans are also nervous when Kimbrel enters the game for a save. It’s the nature of being a fan when your team has a small lead entering the 9th inning. Fortunately, the Astros have a legit closer who gets the job done.

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  3. We can still do this – but we will need to get smarter and more disciplined. Here is where veteran leadership can really help. Keuchel and Gregerson on the pitching staff; Beltran and McCann on the offensive side. We can’t waste opportunities; and we have to make the great plays on the infield as well as in the outfield.

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    • So, does that mean the F.O. calls up Colin Moran, Tyler White, or A.J. Reed? If we bring up Moran, does Bregman to SS? If we bring up White or Reed, does Gurriel go back to 3rd and Bregman and Marwin platoon at SS?

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      • Moran’s really been raking – I would tend to lean that way – but who they put where is problematic – looks like they would be moving somebody around – unless they just give SS to Marwin.

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      • The loss of the Captain is significant because while the Astros have a lot of good hitters this year, they really only have one true clutch hitter – Correa. Perhaps, if he goes on the DL, someone else – or maybe even several someones – will develop the killer instinct that allows them to find a way to hit even better when the game is on the line. We have no problem, finally, getting men on base. When the opposition is playing us tough, however, and the pitching is decent, we still have real trouble converting those base-runners into runs.

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      • Another theoretical option, letting everyone stay in their position, would be to bring up Reid Brignac.

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  5. B.O.L.O.

    Official Alien Abduction Notice:

    In two separate instances, in two different parts of the country, aliens have attacked potential superstars from the Houston Astros minor league baseball program. The first such occurrence was in North Carolina, when Yordan Alvarez suddenly disappeared without a trace. Someone reported hearing a tortured scream that sounded like ‘Release Me!’, but that cannot be confirmed at this time.

    The second instance occurred closer to home, in the bayside town of Corpus Christi, Texas. A young man named Kyle Tucker was playing baseball for the Hooks one moment, and the next moment was gone. Poof. Vanished. Invisi-bible.

    In looking for similarities between the two abductions, authorities will only say that. both young men are left-handed. Be careful out there, folks!

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  6. In the first inning last night, Segura led off with a single and stole second as Gamel struck out. Segura had a bad jump and should have been out by five feet, but the throw bounced right in front of Correa’s glove and he could not handle it. That was a play we have seen Correa make a dozen times but he could not get his glove to work and when the camera went back to Correa before the next pitch to Cano, Correa had his hat in his hand, was extremely pale and had an obvious look of pain. I remarked to Mrs. 1OP that he actually looked ill.
    I think his thumb was hurting so bad that it kept him from making that play on Segura.

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  7. Franklin Perez got hammered in three innings of work last night in CC. Of course, he was brought in as a reliever in his first game in Corpus.
    Perez gave up 6 hits and they were all line drives.

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  8. You know I’ve heard of players being pulled from games and lineups based on being traded that day. I don’t think I can remember guys getting pulled out of the lineup for days at a time and held out with nothing happening. Makes me feel like they maybe have a little ouchie??? I guess Luhnow could be keeping them in a padded cell with no sharp objects until July 31 so they don’t get injured, but right now if you wanted to trade for one of those guys wouldn’t you be wanting to see them play some more – wouldn’t you assume they are injured if they are not playing. Weird situation.

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      • Actually, the medical/health issue is probably with whoever Luhnow has tentatively agreed to trade Alvarez and Tucker for. Remember, we are not looking for a rental – but for someone who will be with us for a long time. A first physical oft-times reveals possible issues with a pitcher’s elbow or shoulder structure that require further evaluation. Everything – including the careers of the agreed-upon prospects -goes on hold while that potential issue gets checked out.

        Either that or its aliens. It still doesn’t hurt to be careful out there!

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      • It wouldn’t have mattered, Dan. It’s the time-space continuum. Come take a little ride with me in my shiny silver DeLorean and let me explain.

        Oh wait, I guess you guys aren’t ready for that yet. But your kids are gonna love it!

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  9. We can I’ll afford to miss Correa, so we had all say a prayer that it’s minor. Last night’s game was sooo exasperating, I went to bed mad as hell. I’m sitting in a big beige chair at Millennium Oncology with a bag of chemo in my arm, and I’m still angry. How many times in the last 3 games have these guys left the bases loaded, with no outs, or one out? I’m not sure if McCullers is hurt or what, but something ain’t right with that kid. Situational hitting lost that game last night……but the lefty outta the bullpen gave it to the M’s. That’s all I’m going to say about him.

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    • Prayer for the day
      “Lord – if you are going to make dear Becky suffer through bouts of chemo – at least don’t double dip and give her a boot in the stomach like last night’s game. Amen.”

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    • The two pitches the Mariners hit out off of Sipp were as bad as any pitches you will see. On the first one, McCann was set up a foot outside and Sipp’s pitch had nothing on it and was right over the middle of the plate.
      The pitch to Valencia was an 82 MPH change up that had McCann set up low and inside. The pitch was mid thigh on the outside part of the plate.
      Sipp sucked, but his pitches were no worse than the two horrible ones they hit off of Devenski and Gregerson. They were all meatballs to the wrong damn team last night.
      McCullers fastball has nothing on it and that is two starts in a row that his fastball has gotten hit hard.

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  10. *What’s the rest of 2017 look like?*

    A long, hot, hard fought, bloody war. Everybody is playing at the top of their game now. We know this team has talent. Now we will find out if it has toughness, and a killer instinct, or not.

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  11. Since Mr. Bill cracked the ice and started talking about this post – I wanted to talk about one thing that I found interesting above.
    For all the talk about the Astros tanking it and riding that to the top of the league. There are only 3 guys from Luhnow drafts that are in the majors yet. Now they did get first shot at picking up some of those waiver picks because of where they had finished the season before, but in the end they have contributors from Wade days, trades, FAs, waiver pickups, foreign signings and draft picks and no one category is the most critical when looking at how this team was built.

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    • Dan, there is one way of building a team you did not mention. That’s right: alien abduction. Jeff Luhnow, are you watching what happened to Alvarez and Tucker?

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  14. I recall learning two things my very first fall game in college: they called interference if you overslid 2nd base to break up a double play and you never slide headfirst into home plate. Catchers equipment is hard plastic and knees have a way of finding themselves onto exposed hands, backs, and faces. The mlb.com story (not updated yet) indicates he sustained the injury on July 4, but aggravated it last night.

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  15. OK – another challenge for the best team in the AL and this one might take the breath out of them a little bit because they were just thinking that they were going to be whole again with the pitchers coming back soon.
    They need guys like Springer and Altuve to NOT try and fill the gap for him by doing too much because they tend to screw themselves into the ground when they try too hard.

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  17. Okay, we all understand what losing Carlos Correa does to our offense – and especially our capacity for late inning comebacks. This one is going to hurt. Runs scored will diminish substantially.

    Another question we need to consider is what this is going to do to our up-the-middle defense? Neither Marwin nor Bregman is anywhere close to the defender that Carlos is.

    Runs allowed will increase – the question is by how much?

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    • Great point. Correa has made run saving plays that only Andrelton Simmons would make. He’s had his lapses this year, too, but most came early on. The metrics do not come close to indicating his value as a shortstop – especially one who can play positioned all over the field do to crazy shifts.

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  19. Some thoughts:
    – I guess I am worried more about our offense, but you are right Mr. Bill – there was one play last night with a guy on 3rd where Marwin’s throw was a bit weak and late that allowed the runner to score. Marwin has a normally good arm, but this was about being off balance and in a hurry and we missed Correa right there.
    – Though I am worried about offense – this team can score without Carlos – they put up 7 runs last night with him mostly out. But it gets back to the team doing it and not individuals thinking they have to do more
    – This is bad but would be worse in September. Heal up Carlos and we will see you down the road

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  22. I have an idea . How about our Pitching staff holding teams to under 4 runs a game. for a few weeks!! Even without CC for a while this team can score 5 or more runs almost any night.. Just saying

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    • If that is a motion, Kevin, I’ll second it. But I have to wonder if it will be a little more challenging to score 5 runs a night with our leading RBI guy – and 2nd highest HR and OBP guy – on the DL.

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  23. I’m not all that worried. First of all, our offense has very healthy all year. This was going to happen to someone sooner than later. Better now than September going into October. I’m pleased to see Moran. I think he’ll hit righties. And I think Bregman will end up playing quite a bit at short. This is a real opportunity for both Bregman and Moran to step up and for Marwin to keep doing what he’s been doing all year.

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  25. Just a reminder about some announcers and others on other sites who kept harping on Correa sliding head first two weeks ago and injuring his hand. Almost everyone on this team slides into home head first. And the worst injury Correa ever suffered was when he broke his ankle sliding into third base feet first in Lancaster. It was bad!

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  26. In july Beltran’s slash line is .265/.342/.500/.842. He is starting to warm up and I think we will be fine offensively. This team is a good team. They will miss Correa, but there are a lot of good players in that lineup.

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    • Now we loose him for while that really changes the game. I’m not big on retaliation in baseball, but time to drill someone

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  28. McHugh will start Saturday, and they moved Musgrove to the bullpen for the time being. OP, you are exactly right about Correa’s leg, and I think that’s why he hasn’t tried to steal a base.
    OMG!!! Springer just got hit on the right wrist! Same wrist he got hit in 2015!
    PRAY that doesn’t start swelling up, and we lose another core player🙏

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  30. Well at least we scored with the bases loaded in the first. And Evan with a 400+ no doubter to left. Need Peacock to continue his excellent starts and have the hitters give him some breathing room.

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    • I’m ok Dan. I’m very glad the fellas came to the park with runs in their bats! They give me medicine through the IV that keeps me from being nauseous. Thank you my friend for checking in on me. You’re the best!

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    • I know what you mean. Reddick was hustling and made a physical mistake by coming off the base – though his judgment was good as he beat the throw. Altuve made a mental mistake by not hustling home. I love them both – but in this case Jose was the culprit. This is unusual for him – used to see him like he did Sunday in hustling home when the catcher threw to first.

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  33. The good news is the squad will win the division without Carlos Correa for a month and a half (add another 2 weeks to get his timing back).

    The bad news is this is not the team’s weakness. THEY NEED MORE STARTING PITCHING. I keep repeating myself, but this is not a championship team….

    ….not just yet, at least. Look for Luhnow to make a move, and spend while he still can.

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  35. Important to win tonght with Paxson going tomorrow. They need to break out a little on him to take tomorrow’s game.

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      • He has been hitting well – but since he is not playing as consistently as last year, it may be too much to ask him to go on a tear – but yes it feels like he is.

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  36. And Tyson Ross gives up nine runs in 3+ innings for the Rangers and they get trounced 12-1. That means that the game we lost in the standings last night is regained tonight and we lead by 16.5 again.
    I’m not right very often, but I was right about Peacock.
    I think winning the first game without Correa is a big deal.
    Gattis caught the best game of his Astros career tonight. His framing had Seattle fuming and got their pitching coach an early shower.
    The home plate umpire was the best game caller I have seen all season. He was on target and consistent and the replay of his calls confirmed them.
    Who picks up Correa’s slack? Tonight it was El Oso Blanco.
    Altuve learned a baseball lesson tonight. Just when you think you are the stud, baseball will teach you something you didn’t know or had forgotten.
    James Hoyt hasn’t figured out the difference between AAA and MLB. Four good pitches followed by a bad one gets you in trouble in this league. He and Musgrove need to do something about it.
    Reymin, that was a catcher you let waltz to second base and it cost your team a run.
    Marwin struck 3 times on low sliders tonight. Going back to the old Marwin at the plate.
    The Force was strong in Luke tonight.
    .

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  37. Peacock has 8 wins, Keuchel has 9. Mchugh has a lot of time to make up, if he wants to catch up with those two!
    OP we are all so impressed with the way Brad has stepped up and pitched for the Astros. The big question will be who stays in the rotation, and who either gets traded or goes to the bullpen. Who do you think it will be Fires or Peacock?

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    • When McHugh and Keuchel are back and if everyone else is healthy, Fiers stays in the rotation and Peacock goes to the bullpen.
      The biggest pitch of the night was the one Peacock made on the tenth pitch of the at-bat and was a called third strike up in the zone on the inside corner of the plate.
      I believe it was to Heredia who watched it all the way in. He was looking slider and the fastball-in just froze him.
      The old Peacock walks that batter on the tenth pitch. The New Peacock now knows he has the stuff to get the guy out and he now has the confidence to pull it off.

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    • Of course the other question here is …. if someone (Morton, McHugh, Fiers) is not pitching up to snuff down the stretch do they pull Peacock back out of the bullpen? Peacock in his last 4 or 5 starts has been one notch below what Keuchel was earlier in the season and better than the other guys, including McCullers. I do think we could really use him in the bullpen as a multi-inning weapon to give the balance of the bullpen rest, but can we afford that if we have someone faltering in the rotation?

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  39. For all of us taking “nerve pills ” to survive 2017. Last night Springer gets thrown out at 3rd. Altuve turns into a “slacker” and lopes home so slow his run is erased off the board. Reddick gets thrown out at 3rd. Altuve gets thrown out on a passed ball that went only 4 feet. We are ” nervous ” because any one would have cost us the win in the past. Last night all of that meant nothing. Take a deep breath and relax.

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  40. Tim – Just wanted to talk a little about Giles and why folks can be a bit nervous about him – some of it is his fault and some of it isn’t.
    – They are not so sure how fire tested he is. Looking back only 6 of his 20 saves are of the one run variety. This of course is not his fault – he can only do what he is asked to do, but there is something in the back of our mind saying that holding 2 or 3 run leads with the bases empty at the beginning of the 9th is not that hard.
    – The fact that you can’t bring him in with runners on base late in a high leveraged situation and expect him to close them out. He has let 58% of his inherited runners score this year – but….it is a very small sample and skewed by one really bad outing where he let all 3 runners inherited score. Some of this is on him – some of it is one bad outing skewing our perception
    – He makes fans nervous when he walks guys to bring the tying or winning run to the plate. However, it is not like he is Mitch Wild Thing Williams.
    – The thing that has me nervous and which could be a detriment in a short series is his tendency to get out of whack for 3 or 4 appearances. He has given up runs in 10 of his 37 appearances this season – and twice he has done it in 3 appearances in a row. He does that in a playoff series and it may be bye-bye time for the team.

    The plus side is that he has been better this season and he has improved in the area that killed him last season – he has only given up 2 HRs this year in 35.1 IP.
    He is not Kimbrel, but thank goodness he is not a candidate for the Rangers bullpen….

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    • 12.6 – 11.2 – 14.0 – 10.2
      2.2 – 2.4 – 3.4 – 3.6

      The decimals should indicate those are not the keys to DanP’s luggage. They are, however, the respective K/9 and BB/9 numbers posted by Kenny G across 2014 – 2017. There are other numbers that should make us much more positive – his HR/9 has fallen from 1.1 in 2016 to 0.5 in 2017. Despite the higher walk rate, his WHIP is down by more than .2 which indicates his H/9 is down (8.2 to 6.9 this year). Finally, he threw 11 wild pitches in 65 innings last year but has only 2 in 35 this year.

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  41. I’ve been in the minority since last Fall in advocating a consistent rotation spot for Brad Peacock, until he hasn’t earned it. I do not refer to him as “the old Peacock,” nor have I seen anything that warrants him going back to an already dominant Astros bullpen. He just cruised through a lineup that beat down our secondary ace and supposed no. 2 in McCullers. I ask, 8-1, what more do you want out of this OTHER STARTER we so desperately need to win a playoff series?

    So, let the speculation begin about who we need, how we’ll get them. Meanwhile, Peacock pitched a gem and dominates. ‘Nary a word about working his butt off and being proud for him. Smh…

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    • When I said Peacock is going back to the pen, I meant it in a good way.They want him in the pen because they need him in the pen. they see him as an important piece there because he has great stuff and putting him there fills a hole that Mugrove, McHugh and Fiers do not offer. They want him in the pen because they need him there with Devenski.
      That is not to say he won’t end up in the rotation. It is just not their current plan for him.

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      • Ran into Colonel Jeff Luhnow Jessup over in Cuba the other day (must have been scouting more Gurriel brothers) and he told me the following when I asked about Peacock going to the bullpen.
        “Son, we live in a world that has ‘pens, and those bullpens have to be manned by men with guns for arms. Who’s gonna do it? Hoyt? Sipp? Or you Lieutenant Dan P? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Peacock leaving the rotation and you curse the Front Office. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know, that Peacock’s demotion to the ‘pen, while tragic, probably will save arms. And my existence and the decisions I make, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves arms! You don’t want the truth, because deep down in places you don’t talk about at parties, you want Peacock in that ‘pen. You need Peacock in that ‘pen.”

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  42. Aaron West’s release yesterday seems but a whisper in the wind, but it is the end of another Astros minor league ventures for one of Luhnow’s signature 2012 draftees. West looked like a good catch for a couple of years, but the shine wore off the higher up in the minors he got.
    For those of us who followed the minor leagues when there was nothing good to follow in the majors, his departure still stings a little.

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    • Correa, LMJ, Preston Tucker, Brady Rodgers, Mike Hauschild and Jordan Jankowski are still in the Astros system from that draft.

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