The Astros have improved the last two seasons as they have dug out of the depths of the 2013 season (51-111) up to the subterranean levels of 2014 (70-92) and finally to the sunshine of a 2015 playoff run (86-76).
The box below shows how the Astros improved in both run scoring and run prevention over the last two seasons.
| Year | Runs Scored/ Game | AL rank | Runs Allowed / Game | AL Rank | Run Differ. / Game | AL Rank |
| 2013 | 3.77 | 14 | 5.23 | 15 | -1.46 | 15 |
| 2014 | 3.88 | 14 | 4.46 | 12 | -0.58 | 13 |
| 2015 | 4.50 | 5 | 3.81 | 1 | 0.69 | 2 |
The Astros improvement from 2013 to 2014 was gained almost exclusively on the backs of an improved starting rotation. The improvement from 2014 to 2015 came from both sides of the ball as the revamped bullpen helped lower their runs/game allowed to the best in the AL, while their runs scored per game improvement raised them to the top 5 in the AL.
In the end, the Astros 0.69 runs / game differential, which was 2nd in the AL only resulted in the 5th best record in the AL and they trailed their division rivals the Texas Rangers by 2 games even though the Rangers only scored 18 more runs (0.11 runs / game differential) than they gave up for the season.
This is not a complete surprise to Astros fans as their run scoring was a hot / cold faucet during the season. When they were hot, they would score a lot more runs than they needed and when they were cold, they left their pitching staff starving for support. This was almost entirely due to their reliance on hitters with strong SLG numbers and bad K/BB numbers, which led them to a very good OPS as a team for the season, but fairly poor BA and OBP numbers.
So, what are your thoughts on the following questions?
- Do you believe the Astros runs/game scored will go up or down in 2016 compared to 2015?
- What do you think will drive this change?
- Do you believe the Astros runs/game allowed will go up or down in 2016 compared to 2015?
- What do you think will drive this change?
- If the Astros run differential stays the same or narrows in 2016, do you believe that a better distribution of run scoring could result in a higher win total?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
59 responses to “2016 Astros: More run differential improvement or not?”
1. runs per game will go up
2. a full season of springer, correa, gomez (if not traded at the deadline) improved (if only slightly) performance from the corners
3. runs allowed will go down
4. a solid bullpen with good closer, that doesn’t get worn out by years end (and some regression from some of the teams in our league)
5. yes
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When I first read this, I wasn’t interested. But, the more I thought about it, the more I remember this exercise last offseason. Was it you, Dan who brought the idea up that somehow the Astros needed to change run differential by one full run per game in order to compete? They did it! They did it by increasing scoring more than a half a run a game and decreasing runs given up by more than half a run a game.
I just don’t see them improving their runs allowed, so they need to do something about runs scored and, to me, that means cutting down on strikeouts and getting more hits. The cure for me seems to be White and Tucker at DH and Reed at 1B and keeping Valbuena, Springer and Gomez healthy.
Keeping other pitchers off balance and afraid of hitters seems to be something we need to fix. When pitchers get to the second half of our lineup, they don’t need to look in at all our hitters and know that they have a good chance of striking most of them out. We all know that confidence is huge on the mound. How many times last season did somebody on this blog point out that the Astros constantly made bad pitchers look good? That is because we strike out so much and pump up lousy pitchers who find themselves in the sixth inning having struck out 9 or 10 Astros already.
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Yes, old pro – I visited this last off-season.
And the off-season before
I know it is simplistic to say you have to outscore your opponent, but these posts were just meant to look at where improvement should be pursued or expected.
I totally agree that they are not going to get much if any improvement in the runs allowed side of the occasion. They must have more at bats with guys who put the wood on the ball consistently and with a purpose and less at bats from the blindfolded piñata flailers.
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There are probably other stats to indicate areas for improvement but I chose today Contact rates. As a team in the AL, the Royals were tops at 81.9%. The Astros last at 75.9%. If we look at the Astros regulars with lower than 75.9%, we have JFSF, Conger (gone), Rasmus, Springer, Castro, Carter (gone), Big Jon, and the pitchers. 1& 2, Yes, removal of couple or three free swingers. 3 & 4. I can’t predict injuries, so I will say about the same. 5. Yes, but some scoring is improved by making contact and advancing runners or scoring a runner from 3rd on a SF.
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Four of the playoff teams were in the bottom 10, including the worst 2, the Cubs and Astros. The Royals were the only playoff team in the top 9, you have to get all the way to 10 to find the Mets.
I’m more concerned with things like O-swing rates and hard contact percentages, and I think they are better applied to individuals though looking at a team stat can probably help you find a trend that might overall improve an offense. When you look at Oswing it changes perspective though – 6 of the 10 playoff teams sit in the top 10, and the Cubs were at 11. When you swing at strikes, and don’t swing at pitches out of the zone, you win more.
I think we all wish they always made more contact, but I think its more relevant that they swing at pitches in the zone, take their walks when they are given, and do something relevant when they do make contact. The Astros were 5th in hard contact percentage, but 21st in BABIP, something I think is a trend that suggests the BABIPs may come up a little next year. As team they hit .250 last year, and I think they may bring that up to .254-.255 next year while maintaining the power numbers of last year.
Don’t get to thinking I am not in the small ball crowd though – I do think you have to maintain some semblance of being able to get a guy on, have him steal a base, bunt him over, and sac him in – so you can win those pesky 2-1 games against buzzsaw type pitchers. I just think you build around the power and the strike zone recognition and the walks, and pepper your bench with the Marisnick types that can get that stolen base, that bunt – though maybe bad example because he isn’t in the high contact crowd (but someone like MarGo is). If I am choosing who I am giving 500 PA’s too – it will be a guy that will have power, draw walks, etc., but if I am choosing a pinch hitter for a runner on 3rd with one out in the 7th inning of a tied game, well, its the contact guy. I just don’t want the solely contact guy getting 500 PA’s.
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1. Up.
2. I think Gomez outproduces what JFSF gave us, and leaving Rasmus in LF helps his consistency improve. 1B was a void until Sept…has to be better this year.
3. Up.
4. I don’t expect major change, but we only have one lefty reliever, Harris will be hard pressed to be as good, Fields will get infrequent usage leading to some rust, and I don’t have as high opinion of Giles as Luhnow does. Doubts linger over innings limit and full season effectiveness for LMJ if he hits a wall. Also, LMJ seemed to credit Kazmir with giving him a lot of guidance.
5. Yes, it could. I think the pen being deeper will play a factor here.
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From a perception standpoint, it did not seem like the pitching improved more in 2014 than it did in 2015, but the team allowed 0.77 runs less per game in 2014 over 2013, while it improved 0.65 runs per game in 2015 over 2014.
But I think this shows how critical it was to improve the bullpen in 2015. Those runs given up late can demoralize a team by giving up a lead or by preventing a late comeback by turning a 1 run deficit into a 5 run deficit. The bullpen even with the late season melt downs was critical for an improved record and an improved attitude for this team.
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Fields, Neshek, Gregerson, Sipp, Giles, Harris, Feliz, Straily. That is the current. Astros list of relievers in their bullpen from their depth chart. Will Feliz no longer be a starter, even though he hasn’t gotten to AAA yet? That’s hard to believe.
The Astros are in year five of the plan and they have yet to develop a reliever from their own system. That’s the GM’s fault. He didn’t know anything about pitching or planning for pitching. That’s why the Astros had no bullpen, and now all of a sudden have one of the most expensive bullpens in baseball.
How could a detailed plan to tear the entire team down and rebuild through the draft not include relief pitchers?
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OP, the club has historically avoided any active career track for a closer in their system. Among Astros draftees, Sambito, Lidge, Dave Smith, and Wagner were all starters in the minors and became closers only when they arrived on the big club. The bullpen fodder has always been an accumulation of back end starters either at the beginning or end of their careers and needing a chance to show they still have a chance to contribute. Not that I am disagreeing with you about the lack of developing relievers, I whole heartedly agree. I miss the ’60s and ’70s where the club threw out good starters every year.
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I would lean towards saying historically most good relievers were former starters but I don’t have any evidence to back that up.
Of the current group of relievers on the depth chart they were all drafted as relievers, so there is some truth at least to saying, since none of them came from our system, that we have failed to develop some relievers that obviously other clubs did for us – and now we have to pay them the real money.
I don’t know if its all Luhnow though, agree with Sarge that it is not a usual organizational track, and even in reviewing the folks on our depth chart it looks like the developmental process on a reliever is a tad longer than other positions (maybe lack of innings?). I guess it’s fair to say that he could have at least given us one by now though so he doesn’t have to give everyone 15 mil at the same time.
I think he knows pitching though. Afterall he picked up finds like McHugh, Harris, and Fields off other peoples wires/easy trades.
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I can’t help but to think that runs scorched will improve, if only slightly. I expect to see 150 games from Springer and Correa. They will be a force. I see improvement from Gomez. Ultimately, I see improvement from the first base position and from the DH position. I don’t see us getting worse in any particular offensive area.
Our pitching is going to remain solid. McCullers will be with us from the start of the season. I’m even hopeful that McHugh, while he won’t win as many games, will be more effective. Our bullpen should be deeper. And I think Luhnow will still at least tweak the pitching staff between now and Opening Day. So I think we give up fewer runs.
Perhaps I’m setting myself up for a big fall. I hope not.
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Actually, runs scorched sounds better than runs scored!
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Usually it is a pitching staff that gets scorched – but I like the verb on the offensive side.
It would be nice if somebody from Gattis, Valbuena, or Castro showed improvement.
I like having more McCullers taking up those starts that Roberto Hernandez gave us in the beginning of last season.
I like having more Fiers starts in lieu of those started by Deduno, Straily and Wojo last season.
We know that injuries may well tell the story this season. This is a good team, but could be average with injuries in the wrong places.
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* Do you believe the Astros runs/game scored will go up or down in 2016 compared to 2015? *
The answer depends upon two things:
1. will Altuve, Springer, and Correa stay healthy; and
2. will the F.O. and Mr. Hinch both be prepared to move on to the rookies in the wings if, during the season, our 2015 underperformers – Gattis, Gomez, Rasmus, Valbuena and Singleton – do not perform significantly better in the BA, OBP, BARISP and combined Runs/RBI total than they did last year.
Each of the mentioned players – all of which have replacements ready or almost ready to take over their roles if they falter – should be put on a minimum standards probation: Gattis, Gomez and Rasmus need to keep their average at or above .235, keep their OBP at or above .315, and keep their BARISP above .275. Valbuena and Singleton need to keep their average at or above .245, their OBP above .325, and their BARISP above .285.
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* Do you believe the Astros runs/game allowed will go up or down in 2016 compared to 2015? *
Yes, albeit slight, because:
[a] I do not expect multiple pitchers to totally blow up in a game like Oberholtzer, McCullers, and Fiers all did at least once last year;
[b] I expect we will have better pitcher fielding and bunt/dribbler handling [with Conger and Kazmir gone],
[c] I expect we will have fewer IF errors with Jon Villar gone; and
[d] I expect we will do a better job of holding runners on base and catching base-stealers than we did last year – especially with Conger catching.
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In case of confusion, What I am saying is that I think there will be a very slight decrease in runs allowed/game in 2016.
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Interesting. Jerry Crasnick says: “The Astros, who traded away their center fielder of the future when they sent prospect Brett Phillips to Milwaukee in July, are intrigued by [CF Ender Inciarte], who hit .303 with 21 stolen bases last year in Arizona while earning a mere $513,000”.
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Jerry does not seem to be hip to the fact that our centerfielder of the future is in rightfield.
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Indeed!
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Unless he is part of the package to obtain Inciarte, which I hope he is not. If they have interest I am hoping they can work JFSF in the trade package for Inciarte instead of Springer as I wouldn’t trade Springer straight up for him. Could a monster deal involving Inciarte and Freeman be a possibility?
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Inciarte, Freeman, most any kind of package moving Springer out might cause me to pack it in and focus on West Indies cricket. And I don’t have any appreciation for cricket. Springer is getting ready to show MLB that he is an elite five tool outfielder and it better be here in Houston, ideally with a move to center as soon as Gomez leaves town. I’m fully prepared to wait on Reed at first. And yes Mr. Bill, a guy like Alpin hitting lefty in the two slot is attractive. Especially when we’ve already added Whites high OBP into the equation.
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In Inciarte were to come, I would think it would be for either Gomez or Tucker and Valbuena or Kemp. I really don’t see Springer as being on the block.
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I’m just tired of the revolving door in center when we’re already got a super talented guy that’s played his entire life there and was poised to be our anchor in the middle of the outfield. Find a right fielder of the future! Springer has been jerked around since since before he reached the majors. And what a great kid with a great attitude and a an obvious joy for the game. He will play center one day and be a perennial All-Star, unfortunately, likely for a team like the Yankess or Sox .
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If it’s Gomez it would need to be a 3-team trade as the Braves would have no interest in a veteran with only 1-year of team control. I doubt we have enough left (of the players we are willing to trade) to get Inciarte. I would think Marisnick, Musgrove and Kemp would be a starter, but it may cost more.
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I don’t think this has legs unless they had ongoing discussions to move Gomez somewhere. I could see them short changing the budget and going for one more salary dump. More likely, however, is that Coppollela is leveraging the Astros farm system against offers received from other teams.
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The Astros made a huge jump in OPS in 2015 from a poor .692 to a strong .752. The problem is that this was not done in a balanced fashion. The Astros increased their SLG from .383 to .437 while their OBP only increased from .309 to .315. In the last 10 seasons 55 teams have posted an OPS of over .750 like the Astros did in 2015, but only one – the 2010 Blue Jays had a lower OBP than the Astros .315.
It would seem logical to think that if the Astros had a drop in SLG in 2016 balanced out by an increase in OBP, that they might score a similar amount of runs as in 2015 for the season, but have it spread a little more smoothly across their games.
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Tyler White.
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Amen, Dave. We need a strong defensive right fielder who can also hit for average and run. Andrew Aplin, anyone? OBP last year = .458 at Corpus [31 games], and .392 at Fresno [78 games]. He stole 32 bases last year.
I wonder what in the way of overall OBP and run potential we could expect from this batting order:
Altuve – 2B
Aplin – RF
Correa – SS
Springer – CF
T. White – DH [P. Tucker v. righties]
A.J. Reed – 1B
Rasmus – LF
Valbuena/Duffy – 3B
Castro/Stassi – C
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DanP, not trying to condemn your story because it is about “improving” run differential. But the Rangers were only +18 runs while the Astros were +111 runs in 2015. All other West teams were in negative numbers. It is a valid barometer but I could take a downturn of 100 runs but winning the division as an improvement.
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The reason why the Rangers prevailed last year is because they of the way they handled the Astros. Change that record from 6-13 to 9-10 and the Astros win the division and have the off days to set up their pitching to where Keuchel throws twice in the five game divisional playoff round, perhaps saving the bullpen from so many playoff innings and everything changes.
The way the run differential ended up it seems like the Astros should have dominated them but Houston did not hit Texas pitching. Colby Lewis was 4-0 against us, totally dominated the Astros in Houston and had 12 strikeouts for every walk against Houston for the season. In the 19 games we played against Texas, they outscored us by 28 runs. The Texas bullpen was also way more effective against us than we were against their bullpen.
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And the Astros lost 8 in a row in August and September – winning the final 2.
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Yeah the run differential number is an inexact match to record. In the AL last season it looked like this:
TOR +221 93-69
HOU +111 86-76
KCR +83 95-67
NYY +66 87-75
CLE +29 81-80
BAL +20 81-81
TEX +18 88-74
TBR +2 80-82
MIN -4 83-79
BOS -5 78-84
LAA -14 85-77
OAK -35 68-94
SEA -70 76-86
CHI -79 76-86
DET -114 74-87
I’d say the Rangers were lucky to win 88 games with a +18 differential until I looked at the Angels who won 85 with a -14 differential.
Hopefully the Astros can have a very good run differential and can figure out how to convert that into more wins.
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Run differential is important. You have to win it if you want to win 95 games and a division. You can win without it though by just being good in 1 and 2 run games. Have an offense that has balance and can do both things – crush average pitchers and work bullpens, or scratch out 2 runs against Cole Hamels and let Keuchel win you that game.
Our run differentials kill the Angels and Rangers, but they killed us in 1 run games, posting winning records in them while the Astros were 8 games under in 1 run games.
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Though the Astros managed to lose multiple ways to the Rangers in 2015, one of the things that stands out in the losses is that it includes quite a few poor turns by the starters, which is the not the norm for this team last season.
Looking at the starting pitching in the losses there is some hope for improvement. These 13 losses included:
– 1 start by Dan Straily
– 1 start by Roberto Hernandez
– 1 start by Sam Deduno
– 3 starts by Scott Kazmir (that included a Kazmir error in each game)
– The worst start of the season by Dallas Keuchel (9 runs allowed)
– The worst start of the season by Lance McCullers (6 runs in 1/3 and inning followed by Mike Fiers 5 run relief outing in his first appearance for the ‘Stros.
It is not hard to see that just by starting other people or not having blowups by two of their more dependable starters the Astros might have a better shot against the Rangers in 2016.
It would not be far fetched to also say that the inexperienced Astros in the first pennant race for practically the whole team choked big time in the mid-September 4 game sweep by the Rangers. With a pennant race and a good appearance in the playoffs behind them, hopefully that will not happen again and they can be closer to .500 or better against the nemesis from North Texas.
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I agree DanP, and from memory only, Fielder and Beltre beat the shift on multiple occasions to keep the bases occupied and moving.
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When things are super quiet (like the recent lack of transactions from the Astros) – we often refer to that as {crickets}.
In honor of that chron.com (Spit!!!) has an article about the Astros attending a work out by a cricketer….
http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2016/01/13/astros-watch-cricketer-powells-baseball-workout/
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lol dan.
do we have a grip on what the rangers and angels have done this off season? i don’t remember any big moves by either team, but i focus on the astros and may have missed any news. the reason i ask (spurred on by this run differential discussion) is we finished 2 games behind the rangers and one ahead of the angels. i really don’t expect much if any regression from the astros in terms of team record, but i have a feeling the angels will regress with their aging expensive team (hamstrung by their budget, unable to make adjustments of consequence). the rangers i don’t have as much of a feeling of them going south, but do expect a little regression.
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I have not been following too close, but I know both teams have a number of free agents that they have to make decisions on especially the Rangers with Gallardo, Colby Lewis and Napoli and the Angels have Freese, Ianetta, Victorino and Latos among others for both teams
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Don’t forget the Angels traded their top two pitching prospects to ATL for Andrelton Simmons and his career .666 OPS. Your view on this trade likely comes down to your confidence in the fledgling defensive metrics used to evaluate players which purport that Jason Heyward is considerably more valuable in RF than George Springer.
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Devin, if I had a choice today based on stats alone, I’d rather have Springer. Assuming good health, just having the comparison of Heyward to go by, Springer will be signing a very big free agent contract in a few years. As it is, being arb eligible next year already, you have to wonder how good the relationship in Houston will remain going forward. Our GM really needs to get an intermediate deal done with Springer. Without it, we could see him traded away.
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Daveb, I share that fear
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I think Springer will, eventually, get traded away before he becomes a free agent. They may sign him to a contract that buys out his last arb years and, maybe, 1 year of free agency, but they won’t pony up over $200M+ for a 31-year old Springer, in my opinion.
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Yeah Dan, the guy is actually from our little island of Nevis. Quite a bit of buzz from the Nevisian faithful on his chances. Apparently though, a Yankee scout has been quoted saying, “he sucked”. That’s not something I’ll share with the locals down here!
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ok so i went and looked at signing for this year and only found two additions to the major league roster for the rangers. Justin Ruggiano OF and Tom Wilhelmsen RP. They traded Leonys Martin and Anthony Bass to get Wilhelmsen.
the angels made several small moves adding Rob Rasmussen, geovany soto, cliff pennington, and erick aybar among major leaguers.
none of those moves scares me much for either team.
the astros added ken giles (and retained tony sipp and coby rasmus). giles has the potential to make a big difference to out bullpen, giving us a hard throwing closer and making the pen deeper. i give us a slight edge based on these transactions.
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Did you forget a full year of Cole Hamels, one of the best pitchers in the league?
How about Hamilton who was hurt last season and doesn’t cost the Rangers a dime?
How about Darvish, who will return sometime this season and who has owned the Astros?
It’s hard to predict that we will be better than them when they beat the crap out of us last year and had so many injuries that they have recovered from. Giles only makes us better if we have the lead and we did not have the lead much last season against the Rangers. We are returning the same team to the field as last season and they have added a lot more to their team.
You might want to review the lifetime BAs of the last six hitters in our lineup from the previous post. It may remind you that, on paper, as a team we don’t hit very well. We swing and miss hard and hit homers hard and that’s about it.
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I think our guys let the first two in their lineup get in their heads. And in some of ours too.
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Yeah, we probably ought to look at how the Angels pitch and shift Odor, because he does not hit or get on base well against them but he kills us.
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nah i didn’t forget that, i was talking about changes since the end of the season. but i mentioned retaining sipp and rasmus, so its fair for you to mention those the rangers picked up and will keep. hamels may very well be a thorn in our side, hamilton very well may be a thorn in the rangers side. he’s a head case, clubhouse meance who i will predict doesn’t play anywhere near 162 games, darvish is another that could be a thorn for us, but lets see how he comes back from injury before we proclaim that. the rangers did us in last year in the head to head series, but only by two games in the standings and that was with the last six hitters in our lineup. giles is worth more than two games in the standings in my opinion, so i stand by what i said. I’m not afraid of the rangers and neither are the astros. ill give them their full season of hamels and give us a full season of springer.
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Harking back to what Steven wrote above – the Astros were at .500 on one run games on Aug. 19th and then went 2-10 the rest of the season in one run games. I have to feel like the pressure of a first pennant race reared its head in this tight games.
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And the pen seemed to be gassed too.
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Thus, adding Giles will move everyone else back a spot and should help in those 1-run games late in the season. No more Qualls, Perez or Thatcher to implode and moving Gregerson to the 8th inning, presumably, should lighten the load on the rest of the bullpen.
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Thank you so much for all of your prayers….because I have the best news EVER!
The cancer has NOT spread, and I will start 8 weeks of an infusion of Rituxan next week. I intend to fight this with grit and humor! I heard your prayers, and so did our Lord. I can’t thank you enough for your thoughts, and your prayers, you have no idea how much you mean to me. Good news indeed!!!! Love, Becky
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Good news Becky – thank you for sharing. We will continue to pray for you and your battle going forward.
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Awesome news Becky…glad to hear it!
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AWESOME so Happy for you and your family, and friends
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Great news, Becky!
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That’s wonderful news Becky, you’re in my thoughts and prayers daily.
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Becky, if it matters, I had a strong feeling today you would get a positive report. I knew you were meeting with your doctor and was thinking about you.
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It mattered!! I thank all of you for praying for me, God does indeed hear you. For the first time I heard my doctor say, “we can cure this”. Thank you Dianne, for reaching out to me! You and Sandy, and all the fellas mean sooo much to me! Thank you again…..Becky
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