A menagerie of off-season questions

The weather in Houston has turned from lingering summer to near winter conditions or winter as defined in southeast Texas where frost is considered the equivalent to a full out blizzard.

So our minds wander to questions that may or may not matter in the coming season.

  • Of the following players, who will have a comeback season offensively in 2016? Jason Castro, Chris Carter, Luis Valbuena, and/or Evan Gattis?
  • Of the following players, who will be with the Astros in 2016? Jason Castro, Chris Carter, Luis Valbuena and/or Evan Gattis?
  • Who is most likely to play in more than 140 games in 2016 – Carlos Gomez, Jed Lowrie or George Springer?
  • The following minor leaguers are currently protected on the 40 man roster – IF Nolan Fontana, RHPs Juan Minaya, Joseph Musgrove, David Paulino, C Alfredo Gonzalez and OF Andrew Aplin. Of these 6 players, will any make the team out of spring training? Who? Will any be called up during the season? Who?
  • Which pitcher is most likely to repeat their number of wins from 2015, Dallas Keuchel (20), Collin McHugh (19), Luke Gregerson (7), or Will Harris (5) in 2016?
  • Carlos Correa’s 22 HR and 68 RBIs is the equivalent to a 162 game average of 36 HR and 111 RBIs. Do you think he will hit post 30 HR and 100 RBIs or better in 2016?
  • In your opinion, what is the most critical need to be addressed in the off-season:
    • A strong armed shut down closer
    • A first baseman who is not a Putt Putt windmill
    • A DH who can get on base more than 28% of the time and can actually play a position?
    • Fill in the blank – If there is one guy I want off this team headed into 2016 it is _____________.

So, what do you think?

←
→

186 responses to “A menagerie of off-season questions”

« Older Comments

  2. Someone was asking why we aren’t all naming our children after Luhnow and admitting that he walked on water, invented the internet, or some other such larger-than-life achievement. I’ll try to state that case. This article is a pretty good summary:
    http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/american-league/al-west/houston-astros/the-unsaid-truth-behind-the-astros-rise-is-exemplified-by-none-other-than-l-j-hoes/

    My opinion is that Luhnow has done a few things really well and deserves credit:
    – Carlos Correa. I could almost stop here…that pick was genius.
    – Manipulating bonus money to sign guys like LMJ and Daz Cameron.
    – Bargain bin hunting. McHugh has been fantastic. Sipp is going to the bank this winter. Even with some guys flaming out we have to recognize these accomplishments.

    The jury will remain out on a number of other moves for some time.
    – Folty, Ruiz, and Thurman to ATL for Gattis. Probably a win, but we’ll see.
    – Conger trade. I’m not calling it a loss unless NiTro does more pitching like his last start. Conger did win us a few games with the bat.
    – Our loaded minor league system. We have to have more to show for it than getting Kazmir and Gomez. Oldpro cited the unheralded players tearing up milb, but unless we get them to the big leagues and see continued success the championships in Fresno won’t mean that much to us.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    • Folty, Ruiz and Thurman for Gattis and Hoyt. Don’t leave Hoyt out of that trade, please. He has a better chance of delivering value than Gattis does.
      Getting Keuchel from a knockaround to a Cy Young winner is Luhnow’s gem. I know that Keuchel is the guy, but Luhnow stuck with him for years when he wasn’t the guy.
      Luhnow got McHugh and made the hire of Strom to develop all the pitchers.
      Nobody can hang Appel around Luhnow’s neck until Appel succeeds or fails
      Keeping Mills an extra year was bad. Hiring Porter was bad. Hiring Hinch was good.
      If the Astros make the playoffs in 2016 with most of the team being made up from Luhnow guys, then Luhnow has been successful because that was the goal. Win in five years and have the team made up of young home grown players.

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

      • For me, the jury is still out on JL. But he did get a team from 100+ losses to the playoffs in a short period of time without breaking the bank.

        1. I really don’t care what he did/did not do in St. Louis.
        2. He has hit on a few from the waiver wire or bargain basement, but most during his entire tenure were flops. However, one would not expect to find even one to be as good as McHugh when he was deemed expendable by his former team.
        3. No sane person can question the results of all of his drafts while in Houston.
        4. Does anyone really care if it is the # 1 or #31 pick that makes it to the Bigs?
        5. I enjoyed the “facts” in the article by Paul Lebowitz. He could have kept his opinion to himself.
        6. Finally, I believe this year will tell a major story on the “GM ability” of JL. He must now put in some improvements and they probably will not come from the draft. I would hope he would allow his picks to at least “flame out” before going outside, but doubt that will happen. And we can not crown him King (YET), if he did indeed offer long term contracts to Matty D & Grossman, sign one with Singleton plus a $1 Million waste with Presley,

        Liked by 1 person

    • Wow Devin_ That was indeed an interesting article. Luhnow doesn’t have the best reputation around the other GM’s….because of the Walt Jockety situation…….and really who could blame them. It will be VERY interesting to see how the arbitration hearings go this winter. Thanks for the link!

      Like

      Reply

  3. I guess here is what I look at personally:
    – The Astros had the 2nd lowest team payroll in the majors last season.
    – The hitters were the youngest (weighted ave) in the AL by a large margin
    – The hitters produced the 5th most runs / game in the AL
    – The pitchers were the 6th youngest in the AL
    – The pitchers allowed the least runs per game in the AL.

    I know there are flaws and probably large egos involved with this front office – but if a front office has produced a winning playoff team that was highly competitive while keeping both the age of the team and the payroll low – oh and while creating a very good to excellent minor league system – I have a hard leaning too hard on them at this point.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

    • i agree dan. i think you can point to way more positives than negatives.many of the positives are major – getting the farm system to among the best if not the best in baseball, having a payroll (which will continue to rise) which is sustainable over time. (next year in just our division the angels, rangers and even mariners have contracts and payroll they regret and will regret for years) many of the negatives are not so major. jd martinez – well dang he bloomed after he left, but i like our outfield of springer, gomez and rasmus just fine. we strike out too much – yep its true, but we still managed to get to the playoffs and arguably played the world champions as well as anybody. a tweak here a tweak there and we have a fine team. so count your blessings astro fans i believe even better things are ahead.

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

    • Dan, the one comment you made rings true in any business, politics, everyday life. A lot of these people have the Egos twice the size of the state of Texas. I guess that can be a plus and a negative. However, most have lost the fine art of humility. Admitting that you were wrong to me is a strength not a weakness. I sit back with immense anticipation awaiting Spring Training and what will happen over the “Hot Stove” period to see what changes are in store for the ‘Stros.

      Like

      Reply

  4. Now my one word of caution is this. If the team’s treatment of players, draftees and agents results in some long term decisions that keep some players from deciding to stay here or come here, then there could be long term damage to the club and to the sustainability of a winning product.
    This could be considered the other side to the Scott Boras situation where certain GMs, agents and/or players boycott the team just like some teams may surreptitiously boycott Boras and his clients.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  5. Mr. Zimmerman is off the market. He signed with the Detroit Tigers for 5 years, $110 million. That establishes the floor for big-name free agent pitchers this year. Agents of David Price or Zack Greinke will seek substantially more $.

    Like

    Reply

      • The question also arises as to how the big payday for Ryan Z. will affect the extension negotiations between the F.O. and Dallas Keuchel.

        Like

    • It has been a few years, but I remember the argument in the Curt Flood case that elimination of the “Reserve Clause” would be the demise of MLB. Now GMs are falling all over themselves trying to sign a guy that each year will make as much as their entire team did in the early 90’s.

      Note: Adjusted for inflation, $1Million in 1990 would be worth about $1.8Million.

      Like

      Reply

    • The guy won the Cy Young this year, won and two straight gold gloves. He threw 200 IP last year and 232 this year. His ERA is way under Zimmerman’s, his WHIP is around 1.0, he almost never walks anybody, and his GO/AO ratio is out of this world. Not to mention his strikeouts per nine – the one area he struggled last year – skyrocketed this year. He now has the umpires’ respect, so he’s worth every penny Zimmerman got and more. But thank heaven he’s not a FA yet, and Texas doesn’t have a state income tax, so I’ll figure he would take 4 years, $75 to 80 million, with incentives, and maybe some special consideration on roster moves and special deals on promotions. But that’s just a wild guess on my part.

      Like

      Reply

  7. We can still afford top pitchers if we don’t pay the big money to our clunkers from last year, let our home grown youngsters take the field and trade Feldman and Singleton. It’s not too late to do the right thing!

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

    • I would be shocked if they tendered a contract to Carter. They are already paying Singleton $2M and he can come close to matching what Carter did this year and I don’t trust Singleton at all. Furthermore, I find it hard to believe White and Reed, even accounting for their rookie adjustments, can’t do better than what Carter did.

      Also, although I expect them to tender Gattis, I wouldn’t be heartbroken if they didn’t. His K rate is decent and his BABIP was well below average this year. Considering it was his first year in the A,L. he could be due for a positive regression. I fully expect Valbuena to get tendered now that Lowrie has been traded. They can still look to trade them even after tendering a contract.

      Like

      Reply

      • But it would be great if White and Reed could match Gattis’s and Carter’s combined WAR performance of 0.3 for one tenth of the cost and have all those rookie adjustments behind them by the end of the season. Who among any of us believes Reed and White’s MILB stats translate to being as bad as Carter and Gattis?
        And what about Stassi, who provided the same WAR in 11 games and 17 plate appearances as Carter and Gattis combined for the whole season. Stassi had 0.3 WAR and Conger provided 0.5 WAR in 73 games and 229 plate appearances.

        Like

  8. Congrats to Tony D.!! He was named minor league manager of the year!! AND…..he went through cancer, and chemo while managing the Grizzlies!! I’d love to see him get to manage in the big someday…..sooner, rather than later!!
    Dang……trades are getting done today BIG time! Anybody seen Luhnow???

    Like

    Reply

  9. 1OP, for the record, I’m confident that both Reed and White would out perform Carter and Gattis. Heck, I think Singleton would ultimately outperform Carter. I also think that Tucker would outperform Gattis. So presently, we have fallback options even if we let both Carter and Gattis go and Reed/White stumble.

    Like

    Reply

    • I agree with OP that the Astros should try and trade Singleton, but if they can’t I think he can come close to equaling Carter’s 2015 production. I doubt he can give us what Carter did in 2014, but I don’t think Carter, himself, can equal his 2014 numbers.

      Like

      Reply

  10. The Dodgers have to pay 42MM in Luxury tax. Like my 9th grade science teacher said once after we complained about a test being unfair. “I feel for you but I can’t quite reach you”. Agree with Kevin and his comment. The money these guys are getting is moving into the area of going from the sublime to the ridiculous.
    And yes, I sign Keuchel to a LT contract right now while we have the “upper hand”. When you lock these guys in for 5 years that gives us time to get the biggest bang for the buck while grooming talent at the farm level. As they get to the point of the ridiculous money we hope to have others waiting in the wings should the price get too high. As the saying goes, “you have to press your pants while the iron is hot”.
    Oh and I still want Reed, White, Stassi and maybe Tucker on the team in place of Gattis, Carter, and Conger.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    • Marisnick should bring you something useful. I’ve always felt Jake is useful as long as you limit his at bats while maximizing the defense and base running opportunities – but if this team is going to pay Rasmus 15 mil he needs LF and none of our current outfielders need a pinch hitter, runner or defensive replacement. My guess is Carter just ends up non tendered but asking around doesn’t hurt.

      Like

      Reply

    • It just appears Marisnick won’t be as utilized. He can’t hit anywhere near the three starters and none of them need a defensive replacement of a pinch runner. I would not trade him with options but maybe Luhnow wants to free up the roster spot for a FA pitcher – also something I am not convinced we need.

      I feel Carter is going to end up non tendered, I don’t see anyone giving him 4-5 mil. There will be done interest but it’s probably no secret that he is going to be let go and can be had a lot cheaper.

      Like

      Reply

  14. Once Jordan Zimmerman got a contract with an AAV of $21M you knew Price was going to get $30M+/year. It looks like Cueto was smart to reject that Arizona offer as he should get at least $25M/year. The price of pitching is astronomical, no pun intended.

    Like

    Reply

  15. Every year it’s the same thing. Teams spend outrageous amounts of money that smaller market teams can’t come up with. Then, if they fail, they get stuck with those contracts and have to unload them and go out and do it all over again.
    Boston’s got Hanley and Panda and a last place team, so they go out and spend $30 million a year for one more player who’s on the field every fifth day. Penalties for overspending mean nothing because money means nothing to the wealthy.
    The Detroit Tigers owner says he doesn’t care about the money because he’s got so much, that the fun money brings to winning trumps the spending.
    There’s no way to make it more even because the rich guys own the league, so the only way to make things work is the way the Royals did it and the way the Astros are doing it, but their window is smaller because once they win, their players start to go away faster than they can be replaced.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    • There are two ways to look at this:
      1. Teams lose fan favorites because they can make the GDP of a small island nation by moving to NY/LA/etc.
      2. Players get paid handomly for their past performance rather than what their future contributions will be.

      Price is 30 years old. It’s interesting that his average fastball velocity increased both of the last two years (94mph last year) since being in decline from a career high of 95+mph in 2012. He has gone from throwing roughly zero changeup in his debut season to throwing it over 20% of his pitches last season. That amazing slider has decreased to less than 10% utilization.

      My only problem with Boston overpaying so much is that they aren’t penalized other than monetarily…like you say.

      Like

      Reply

      • The penalty comes to the fans – at least fans who want to go to ballgames and purchase team merchandise. Unfortunately the outrageously high player salaries just get passed on to the fans.

        Like

  16. The Astros and Phillies have traded thoughts on Ken Giles……and two names the Phillies brought up, we’re McCullers and Velasquez. Would you trade Velasquez?
    I wouldn’t even LISTEN on McCullers. Giles would be under team control for 4-5yrs and the Phillies absolutely have the upper hand when it comes to this kid……..

    Like

    Reply

    • When it comes to McCullers:
      – If he had pitched 162 innings he would have been among “qualifiers” statistically
      – As such his 3.22 ERA would have been 6th in the AL
      – His 1.186 WHIP would have been 13th in the AL
      – His 9.2 K/9 IP would have been tied at 6th (with gazillionaire David Price) in the AL
      – And he turned 22 two months ago today
      – We have him 3 more years until he is arb eligible and 6 more before his FA eligible
      I ain’t listening on Lance

      Like

      Reply

      • I would make both untouchable. I still think in the long run VV has cy type stuff and could be better but LM is the better pitcher today and is fully capable of developing into an ace himself.

        Like

    • Relief pitchers are often times very volatile. LMJ is untouchable. I don’t know anything about Giles other than the press he is getting this winter. If he’s the guy they feel they need I would not hesitate to move Velasquez. He is next in line to replace JDM as the guy we don’t utilize who blossoms elsewhere, IMO, but such is the nature of 25 man rosters and guaranteed contracts.

      Like

      Reply

      • Actually, I do know something. I saw Giles pitch in relief for Lehigh Valley against Norfolk in 2014. Brett Wallace had a sharp single to RF in that inning off an inside fastball. That should tell you how I feel about Giles.

        Like

  17. I’ve been real easy on Luhnow lately, but this going out and having to find relievers somewhere else is one of his big failings as a GM. All these arms he has acquired in the last four years that he has doubled up as tandem starters in the minors and totally ignoring bullpens has come home to roost.
    I realize he is going to operate his minor league pitching differently this coming year, but that is two years late.
    And now we find out that Crane has a man-crush on Chapman. So what? Chapman is too damn expensive because we have all these high priced strikeout artists that we are going to pay for to shake their heads at the umpires over and over as they walk back to the dugout and dream about all the high fives they’re gonna get the next time they hit a solo home run.
    I’ve said it before and this is a good time to repeat it. How can you comepletely ignore your minor league bullpens for four years and expect to have relievers in the fifth year of your reign?

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    • How weird is it that I kept talking over and over about Heineman and the team completely ignores him in the Rule 5 and suddenly Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs has him rated as the #51 prospect in the KATOH Ratings, right behind Alex Bregman at #50?
      Heineman wasn’t ranked in anyone’s top anything until his AAA year this year, but Hank Conger is Framin’ Hank Conger, stud Pillsbury doughglove.

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

    • As to the tandem pitching, when I first heard about it – it made sense because the Astros were acquiring too many prospects to narrow it down to only 5 starters on each Minor league team. But that was (I thought) only going to be in the lower levels. But eventually it was carried on too long. I don’t think JL will continue that process and perhaps the turnover in the minor league coaches are going to address that issue too. Lets hope so.

      Like

      Reply

  18. I hope our organization is committed to recognizing Keuchel for what he’s become and how much his presence means to the team over the next few years. Otherwise, he could elect to be patient and wait for the Price type payday in 2019, when 40 million a year might be the reality.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    • What a great question. The only way I see my children having a better life is to teach them the beauty of living simply. Not wasting things, not craving things, being satisfied with what you have. Everyone’s world can be better for them if they are happy with what they have.
      That doesn’t hold true with baseball, though, because baseball is not life, it’s a game. So it’s okay to strive for more in baseball.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  24. I worry all the time about your question dave_b. My fear is that my grandchildren will grow up in a world, where they do not feel safe in their own country. I pray about it everyday.
    Luhnow got rid of Conger tonight to the Rays for “cash considerations”…..which really chaps my a- – because we left two really good players on the Angels plate, and we got nothing in their place. We knew Carter was gonna get non tendered, so that was a no brainer. Time to let our shiny new prospects step up, and claim their place along side our Rookie of the Year, and our Cy Young Award winner!! And…..please don’t trade for Chapman. He would cost a butt load of prospects, only to hit the market after 2016. Jim Crane has a man crush on the guy, but that won’t last long when he hits the open market wanting $200 million+ in 2017. Goodnight all.

    Like

    Reply

  25. Back to baseball. What a wonderful distraction! We are making some of the progress we all asked for. Conger gone. Conger will always go down as one of our bigger head scratchers. Carter all but gone. I know we’re not going to get all we want, but this is a good start. One thing though, I’m still concerned about leaving multiple catchers unprotected. It will come back to haunt us.

    Like

    Reply

    • The Conger trade tells me 2 things. First, and the most obvious, the Astros lost that trade to the Angels. Second, and something I find encouraging, is that Luhnow is not going to keep a player that’s a liability even if he just traded for him a year earlier. He realized he made a mistake and cut his losses, for lack of a better term.

      Like

      Reply
« Older Comments

Leave a comment