Monday morning review: The Astros are heading home

Sitting in the hot sun (yes, it gets hot in Minnesota) at Target Field, this loss to the Twins was hard to watch. Guys making outs on the bases. Lance McCullers letting walks beat him. The best bullpen in the AL giving up four runs. Colby Rasmus dropping a ball right in his glove.

And yet, the Astros were 3-3 on this road trip. And heading home, apparently the Mariners won’t be sending “King” Felix Hernandez to the mound.

By Tuesday there will be a few other Astros in the house. With luck, we’ll see one or two from the following: Preston Tucker and (sorry Becky) Jonathan Villar as a pinch runner. Jon Singleton might be nice as well. He can’t be any worse than Chris Carter.

On the pitching side, I’d expect to see two or three from the likes of Michael Feliz, Josh Fields, Brett Oberholtzer and maybe Kevin Chapman.

One thing I would not expect is anyone who is not currently on the 40-man roster. Unless Luhnow DFA’s Robbie Grossman or Luis Cruz, we won’t see Tyler White or anyone else.

Other things I think about

1. Jose Altuve is 12 hits short of 800. At his current pace, he’ll reach somewhere near 825 hits at the end of the season. That means 1,000 is well within reach by the end of next season.

2. The Astros are probably three of four more days from a return of George Springer to the the lineup. That means Altuve, Springer, Correa, Gattis, Lowrie, Gonzalez, Gomez, Rasmus and Conger. That’s quite the lineup. Certainly better than what I saw in Minneapolis.

3. At some point, the Astros will need to pick just five starters. Or will they? The Astros rotation is getting a lot of rest these days, probably at a time when the starters need it most. Meanwhile, the Rangers won’t have many days off left. … Yes, I like the Astros’ chances.

4. Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to go throw a no-hitter against the Dodgers. Seems like the thing to do these days.

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68 responses to “Monday morning review: The Astros are heading home”

  1. I told Mrs. 1oldpro that watching yesterday’s game reminded me of watching the 2014 team play, the few times I got to watch them. So frustrating with runners on base just dying out there after getting on.
    I agree with you that the chances of seeing players not on the 40-man are slim. I think the only way we may see one would be after their MILB playoffs end and they have to be protected anyway this winter and someone gets hurt or cut to provide a spot on the 40-man.

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    • I agree, OP1. For some reason I am unable to comprehend, this FO apparently still believes in Chris Carter and Hank Conger. It obviously also still believes to some extent in Grossman, Hoes, L. Cruz, and Wojo as well. I don’t believe in any of those guys. But as long as these guys are taking up space on the 40-man, there is simply no room for anyone else – no Tyler White, no Tony Kemp, no Joe Sclafani, no Chris Devenski, etc. We might as well just hunker down, practice relaxation techniques, and get use to life in the Cuckoo’s Nest. Schizophrenia is the new normal.

      What the FO’s obsession with Carter, Conger, Grossman, Hoes, Cruz, and Wojo means to me is that our offense is going to sputter the rest of the year. It means we will continue to be overmatched by opposing pitching at almost every critical moment in every close game [i.e. except in those rare occasions when Altuve, Correa, Springer, or Marwin Gonzalez stroll to the plate with men on base]. It means we are going to continue to look like a t-ball team on the bases a lot of the time – especially when Altuve or Marisnick are the ones on base. Watching them die on the bases is bad; watching them get picked off and thrown out multiple times a game is just downright amateur.

      Obviously, we are not going to dominate any team in the league offensively. We just have to hope our starting pitching will hold, that our bullpen does not completely implode, and that the Rangers struggle mightily on the road.

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      • Well, there is a problem. The Rangers have not struggled on the road all year. At 36-29 they are one of the best road teams in baseball, even when all their big guys were hurt. They are 32-32 at home, but much better there lately. If we wait for them to lose, we may be looking up at them in the standings.
        Throwing a terrible lineup out there yesterday against a pitcher who has been bad and trying to support our rookie starter who had no rhythm because he has not pitched much in the last month was looking for a loss to end a road trip. The front office is unwilling to try better players from the minors and continues to put bad hitters out there who can’t reward a pitcher with some runs.
        It just seems that management is satisfied.

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      • I’m frustrated by Carter as well, but have trouble with this sentiment. He’s hit 18 HR and driven in 50 runs. His OBP is, what, 4th best among regulars in our lineup? He also, unlike most guys in our lineup, sees lots of pitches and takes walks. Would you prefer Adam LaRoche or Michael Morse? I’m not convinced Singleton or White do much better, if at all, than Carter…but I will give you that we don’t know because neither has had a shot.

        Kemp is not hitting anything more than singles and has not lit the world on fire at Fresno. Once pitchers threw him strikes his value plummeted. Which OF at AA or AAA should play ahead of Grossman? Hoes has been great this year! An argument could be made that he should have come up to replace Tucker’s bat! Cruz and Wojo will be dropped from the 40 shortly after the WS, if not sooner. Conger looked good on paper, but hasn’t panned out.

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      • Devin, I disagree with your question on Carter. (His OBP is only ahead of Gomez as an Astro, Gattis, Castro & JFSF). A team is composed of players that have various jobs to do. Carter’s job is not to walk and steal 2nd. (Nor is it to strike out). Pitchers have learned to nibble with him and he gets himself out. If he lays off the pitches, he can walk but his 18 HRs represent about 4.4% HRs/PA. His K is 33.5%/PA.

        For that reason others that produce a similar HR rate – kill him on OPS because of his low average. I am not opposed to making the pitcher work, etc. but there is a reason other batters carry the bat to home plate. But I do agree, those in the minors may not do much better, but I just don’t see how they do any worse at the plate.

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      • Part of yesterday’s problem is the injuries. Correa and Lowrie are injured. Castro is out. It’s all little nagging stuff.

        This time next week we’ll have Correa, Lowrie and Springer in the lineup, and our offense will be much improved.

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      • It’s obvious to me the FO can’t admit they made mistakes on these guys. No other explanation.
        As for the rest of the season, we just have to pray for some luck.

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  2. Devin, I’d rather make the argument that Hoes should have come up to replace Jakes anemic bat. He and Tucker would have provided an .800 plus OPS in a platoon. But when you’ve got such an immobile team in general, I suppose that’s why Marisnick still has a job.

    I’ve quit trying to figure out why Carter is still playing for this club. Of course there are no guarantees that White would be a savior. But why have a guy in AAA hitting .380 with a .475 OBP unless you are going to use them? How many guys show those numbers without getting a shot? I’ve got no expectations for this final month of the season because I don’t think Luhnow is trying to field the best team he can. I still think we might make it into the playoffs based on superior pitching, but for the life of me, I can’t understand how the GM has not done something, anything, at first. If Carter gets hot, I’ll anoint Luhnow a genius, but otherwise, I remain flabbergasted, if not disgusted.

    Maybe Luhnow is happy to have this 2015 team taste a pennant race. That seems to be the case right now. All I know is that it’s leaving a bad taste in my mouth. And if the Rangers win the division, Luhnow should be fired.

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  3. I welcome the quibbling, Devin. May I, in the interest of full disclosure, point out the following:

    *Your sentiment: “Tony Kemp is not hitting anything more than singles” *

    Actually, on the year Tony Kemp has hit 18 doubles, 8 of which are at Fresno, 3 triples, 2 of which are at Fresno, and 3 HRs, all of which are at Fresno. He has driven in 45 runs (only 5 less than the power hitting Carter) and has scored 75 runs (33 more than Carter, 10 more than Hoes). His OBP is .392 on the year compared to Carter’s .296. He has struck out 62 times, to Carter’s 136 – and Kemp has more at bats. You are correct, however, that Kemp has not ‘lit the world on fire at Fresno’. His Fresno BA is only .279 [which would put him 1 point above Carlos Correa, and 2nd on the squad, if he duplicated that at the MLB level]. His Fresno OBP is only .338 [which would put him 9 points behind Correa and 4th on the squad if repeated at the MLB level].

    * Your sentiment: “I’m not convinced . . . White would do much better, if at all, than Carter’ *

    As you correctly point out in the next sentence, we’ll never know until we give White a chance. Carter has had his opportunities – over and over again. Singleton got his chance last year, did not handle it, and now he is even struggling mightily at AAA. Tyler White, on the other hand, has hit well and provided impact wherever he has gone this year.

    * Your sentiment: “Hoes has been great this year”

    Hoes played quite a bit at Houston last year, so we know what level of play he brings to the major league table. He hit .172 for us with a .230 OBP. He was also absolutely horrible on the bases. This year in only 15 ABs in Houston he hit .267, but he had zero extra base hits. While you are correct that when LJ first got demoted to Fresno he hit extremely well, as the year has progressed his production has dropped off significantly. His early AAA BA near .400 is now down to .300 and is free-falling rapidly – it has dropped 12 points just since August 17. While I think Hoes’ status as a reserve outfielder on the 40-man is more justifiable than holding on to Grossman or Villar, to say L.J. has been ‘great’ this year might not be something we’ll be able to agree on. Tyler White has been great. A.J. Reed has been great. LJs performance is nowhere close to that class.

    * Your sentiment: “An argument could be made that he [Hoes] should have come up to replace Tucker’s bat.”

    This is where you really lost me. With the Astros, through 79 games, Tucker had a .250 BA, with 17 2Bs, 12 HRs and 30 RBI and 32 runs scored. While I would agree that Hoes’ speed and outfield defense is better than Tuckers, and that Tucker needs to work on some things to be the major impact player of the future he is almost certain to become in 2016 and beyond, even now Hoes is just not in PT’s class offensively. Even struggling, Tucker was always a serious threat every time he came to the plate – a and that was against MLB pitching. Moreover, if you compare Tucker’s lifetime minor league stats with Hoes, the evidence for Tucker grows even stronger: Tucker’s milb BA is .294; Hoes is .288. Not such a big deal, right? But Tucker’s OBP at the milb level is .363 while Hoes is .328. And let’s look further. Tucker has hit 68 milb HRs (one in every 20 ABs); Hoes has hit 29 ( one in every 97.7 ABs). Tucker has driven in 270 runs in 348 milb games (.77 runs per game); Hoes has driven in 347 runs in 771 milb games (.44 runs per game). So an argument could be made, I suppose, that Hoes should have come up to replace Tucker’s bat – but it simply would not be a very good argument. Fortunately, even the FO did not buy in on that one.

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    • Kemp is an energy guy who will collect some xbh when it is placed well. I’d like to see him raise his average at Fresno. Speed is supposed to never slump. His OBP of .338 at Fresno, even adjusting for MLB, would help us. It’s hypocritical of me to not champion his cause despite continually saying DDJ should have been protected.

      I’m not fully invested in supporting Carter. I think he’ll have a big series against the SEA LHP…but his inability to hit anything thrown faster than 93mph likely eliminates him from contributing in the post-season if we reach it. I’d really like to know why he has struggled to hit good fastballs this year. I still don’t like having both him and Gattis on the team…but it’s not like Luhnow could snap his fingers and acquire Goldschmidt.

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  4. Going back to the posts yesterday from DrB14 & Chip – I wanted to look up Brad Ausmus and Adam Everett stats.

    Here is career for Brad .251/.326/.669. Adam’s career .242/.294/.640. On this 2015 team – Brad Bats 5th AFTER Springer returns and Adam bats 6th. (Just playing games with BA only and realizing that Adam is now moved to 3rd base with Lowrie or Valbuena sitting.)

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  5. Tucker is an interesting player to me. (After only 79 games it may not be fair to him). He has a very interesting and powerful bat. He appears to be able to hit for average AND power. He is a better LFer than Carlos Lee, Gattis, Carter or MGonzalez. That is not saying a lot. His arm is average and he made at least 2 mental errors in those games. But he appears to be decent in coverage (perhaps slightly below average) but is a heady ballplayer. He did make a huge mistake on the bases assuming a 4th ball call on a 3rd strike and he quit running. But he took the extra base several times when the cut off was missed. We have at least 2 “sluggers ! !” that get to first and stop no matter what happens. And finally I think Tucker is a player that needs to play. He is not good coming off the bench right now so he may be a very poor choice as a DH. He is only 25 and can still develop on some of his shortcomings. To me – NOT trading him in July was the best decision JL made (if he was in the discussions).

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  6. Why do you think he shouldn’t be fired under those circumstances? It’s totally on him. He has the ability to make this team better and has chosen not to.

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    • You have to consider anything he does must be ownership approved, ownership is reluctant to add salary or pay players to play elsewhere, and the guys we cut would generally get claimed/signed elsewhere quickly. Finally, injuries have made it more difficult.

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    • What are the circumstances you are mentioning where you think Luhnow should be fired? This team was projected to win 75-77 games and will far exceed that number. I think even the most optimistic Chipalatta blogger had them winning 85 and they will probably exceed that number. Yes, we all want them to make the playoffs and will be disappointed if they don’t when we are this close, but firing Luhnow if we don’t is ridiculous, in my opinion. He, like every other GM, has made some mistakes (the Conger trade stands out), but this team is on pace to be a very strong team for many, many years ahead and Luhnow deserves some credit for this.

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      • For the record, I have to agree with Tim on this one. I know, it is hard to believe! 🙂
        I am certainly not a fan of everything Luhnow does, and have not been shy about saying it. I do not really agree that this club is really very strong now, much less primed to be be strong in the future. I see us as benefiting from a far weaker than anticipated division this year, some truly amazing pitching that will be hard to duplicate, and a whole boatload of blind luck. But whatever it is attributed to, the favorable win loss record this year means I don’t see Jeff Luhnow getting fired any time soon unless he gets caught administering PEDs to Chris Carter and Evan Gattis in their sleep or expectorating into Jim Crane’s gin and tonic.

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  8. WOOOOW……..I’m not sure firing Luhnow would do anything to move this team forward for this year, or next year. If the Rangers move ahead of this club……they only have themselves to blame for it. Tyler White has hit well in Fresno, will that carry over to the major league team? Who knows, but tomorrow is Sept 1st and we might get to see if he does. The Rangers might just be more hungry than the Astros are, if that’s the case shame on us.
    I want this year to be a year of firsts!!
    I want Keuchel to win the A.L. Cy Young.
    I want Correa to win the A.L. Roy.
    I want the Astros to win the A.L. West
    This team can do all of this, and call me the glass half full girl but I really believe it can be our year!!

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  9. I don’t agree with Luhnow being fired if the Rangers win the division this season, but I do agree that he will share a chunk of the blame. My biggest problem is that this is not a money decision. Tyler White would be paid major league minimum, so say he had been brought up 1/2 way through August – that would be something like $100 – 150 K. Yes, if you DFA Carter you would have to pay him for nothing the rest of the season, but you are paying him for almost nothing if you keep him. And you are probably hurting the offense of the team overall – you are blocking someone who would almost have to give you better numbers.

    In general though – this team would not be where it is without Jeff Luhnow. Yes, the offense is very streaky and holey (not holy), but he has built one of the finest pitching staffs in the league out of almost thin air.

    I’m willing to hold on and see the rest of the Plan come to fruition. This team that looked like a stretch to end up at .500 this season is playing significant games in September and maybe into October. What more could you want? Yeah yeah I know you want them to make more moves. I do too.

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  10. I would LOVE to see the passenger lists on the flights going from Fesno to Houston Hobby. Or the big airport in Houston tonight, or tomorrow morning! We might see our future stars on that flight! But remember four of our minor league teams are in the playoffs. That might effect OUR plans for call ups!

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  12. Well, I didn’t expect to get many if any of you to agree with me. My take is this. Luhnow went all in with the Bucks trade. We gave up some real good stuff. And then he seemingly reversed his all in mentality. He did not do anything about first base. I think his pitching will save him (from me) and help us win the division. Hopefully the guys on the field will make my stance a moot point.

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  13. Maybe it would be easier for me to understand if there was a reasonable explanation for keeping Carter on this team. I can’t believe it’s the money owed him for a few months. It has to be JL not wanting to admit he made a mistake.

    I agree, I was simply hoping for a 500 season. That and the TV deal would have been enough to make me happy. But at the end of April, wow, this team looked unbeatable.
    The Astros are being noticed by the national media. It would be a shame to crumble on the big stage without doing everything possible to win.

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    • Sandy….I agree 100% and I have a feeling Luhnow *will* address the black hole we, and every team in the league sees. Let’s see how far the Fresno Grizzlies go, and that may be telling us if or when we see a minor league guy at first base. I have a feeling they are going to give Singleton every chance again to fail, or succeed. Jim Crane is paying him a bunch of money just to languish in Fresno. I know….I know we’ve seen enough of him that none of us wanna see him up again…but I wouldn’t put it past Luhnow to try him again up with the big club. I’m hoping to be surprised to see more than Tucker up in the next 2-3 weeks! The kid is on the mound tonight, and let’s hope our guys can break through tonight!!

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  14. I agree about Singleton. Hope JL learned a lesson about big contracts before at least making sure a player is ML capable.

    I sure hope you’re right about what the next 2 or 3 weeks.

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  15. Well crap…….Evan Drellich with the Chronicle just posted an article about why we WILL NOT see White or Apple this year. It appears that they are sending Tyler White to winter ball to transition to a catcher. *what*??? Three guesses and the first two don’t count, on who we WILL see in the next few weeks. OH LORD.

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    • WELL, I guess it’s just us that think we have a problem at first. We have the mighty Carter who hits a home run about every 40th at bat.

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  18. Billy……I agree, he’s not fooling anyone anymore. *16* wins for the future Cy Young Award winner!! Gotta love Dallas Keuchel!! ESPECIALLY at home!!
    Lloyd Mcclendon….still think Keuchel is “average”??

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  19. Just got back from the game. Really great to see Lowrie break loose and to have Correa back. Keuchel was different tonight than his usual. He did get the Ks but he gave up some hard contact. Conger’s almost caught stealing was actually well executed. In the inning where Keuchel loaded the bases with no outs a big kudo has to go to Marisnick. On Cano’s sharp single to right Jake charged hard and fired an absolute strike to the plate on the fly. The Seattle third base coach made the right call to hold his runner but it set the stage for the 1-2-3 DP that took the wind out of the M’s sails. Conger better hit the long ball because he is glacial going down the first base line. I think you could probably time his 40 yard dash with a calendar. And finally a tip of the cap to Hinch who left Keuchel in to finish the seventh and was rewarded with an inning ending DP. Keuchel showed some grit pitching through Correa’s error. All in all a very pleasant game to watch. With Keuchel so dominant at home I hope they send him back out there Saturday or Sunday. Put those near sure wins in the bank!

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  20. Interesting fact: The Rangers will finish Aug. an unbelievable 17-11. Yep, that’s a high-water mark for them. If they finish the rest of the season 6 games over .500, the Astros would have to finish the season under .500 –their first month below the break-even point — for the Rangers to catch (let alone pass) Houston in the standings. Right now Houston is 14 games over. Arlington is 6 games over.

    This public service message brought to you by the Don’t Panic Brigade.

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  21. Angels lose. Rangers lose. Fresno wins with Appel on the mound, the first win they have had since the last time Appel pitched, last Monday. Tonight’s win was #80 for Fresno. Tyler White with 2 HRs and 4 RBIs.
    CC wins. QC wins. Tri City wins. Lancaster off.

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  23. Today is September 1st. The Astros are 14 games over .500. The Astros have a four game lead in their division. I never, in my wildest dreams, expected to be typing that in 2015! Let’s finish strong!

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    • I honestly expected us to be ~5 games behind at this point before the season started. Had the Astros at 85 wins to finish and the Angels at 90.

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  24. Okay, so I guess we really are stuck with Jonathan Villar. Not Tyler White. Not Tony Kemp. Not Joe Sclafani. Not even Matt Duffy. Nope. We get Jonathan ‘Did I do that?’ Villar! Jonathan ‘Nightmare on Crawford Street’ Villar. Jonathan ‘I missed it by ‘that much’” Villar.

    Well, I suppose Mr. VR can pinch run. Heck, for Carter, for Conger, or for a pitcher in an inter-league game at an NL park he might even be a candidate to pinch hit. For that matter, maybe Jeff Luhnow will trust him to hold his drink for him. But please tell me that never, under any circumstances, will Mr. VR ever again play anywhere in the field for our Houston Astros.

    Please. Have mercy. For the sake of Becky. For the sake of team dignity. For the sake of us all.

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    • First, your nicknames for JV are priceless. Extra kudos for the Uerkel reference.

      But, yeah, I’d be willing to DFA him and bring up White. What’s the worst that happens? The Rangers pick him up and let him play shortstop?

      Oh, please. Please don’t throw me in the briar patch!

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  27. Villerror should ONLY keep the bench warm and NEVER, EVER be put in the lineup. If Hinch puts him in to play a game, it had better be if the Astros have a 20 run lead. There is NO EXCUSE for putting him in a game, unless Correa has a broken leg, Marwin got run over, or Altuve gets pregnant. PERIOD. If I never see that guy again, it will be too soon.

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  29. Great entire month of August for Jose Altuve.
    Great MMP performance – once again – for Dallas Keuchel.
    Great return to the line-up for Carlos Correa.
    Great return to the offensive side of the game for Jed Lowrie.
    Great return to excellence for Will Harris.
    The rest of you guys, you do realize we are playing games that mean something in September, don’t you? Those who contribute will be remembered. Those who do not will be remembered more.

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    • You have my list of first I want for 2015!!
      Keuchel for A.L. Cy Young
      Correa for A.L. ROY
      The Astros to *WIN* A.L. West!!
      And for George to come back SOON!

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  30. Are you kidding me September, 1st place and 18,000 fans there are u kidding me, embarrassing man , I guess I need to drive over from CO.

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  32. Rasmus gets a triple/ no outs and Conger, Valbuena, and Altuve ALL strike out. This is a perfect example of what this team does not do well. And the bull pen was TOO well rested tonight….. ((((sigh))))

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    • Put Carter on the bench and we still lead the league in Ks. So frustrating. Conger took a 3rd strike down the middle. Valbuena swung at two in the dirt. Altuve got a 4 pitch walk that had one called a strike. But it made no difference. Just not timely hitting. When you give up 5 runs on HRs – not a good chance of winning but they tried and tried.

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