Astros hitting problems: The hitters or Hudgens?

In a debate that might match the famous nature vs. nurture arguments of science and after another terrible offensive road trip, this blog stops to examine the question of our time. Are the Astros’ hitting woes the fault of the hitters or the fault of Swing and Miss Coach Dave Hudgens?

If Hudgens were updating his resume with the thought he would be on the street this off-season, (and certainly Astros’ fans are hoping he is too busy teaching Chris Carter that he needs to vary his swing based on where the pitch is to do it) he would have a decent story to tell.

The team is tied for third in the AL in runs scored, first in Home Runs, fourth in slugging percentage and fourth in OPS. In 2014 this team was 14th in runs scored, third in HRs, eighth in slugging and ninth in OPS. Those are all big improvements for a team, which is leading the AL West. So, what are you complaining about?

Well, it is not that the fans are not thankful for a better team performance, but they rightfully can say that last season’s team did not have nearly as many professional hitters as this team with Brett Lowrie, Luis Valbuena, Evan Gattis and Colby Rasmus added to the mix. A good way to look at the team is how the players who make up the nucleus of the team are performing this season vs. last season. Overall, it is not pretty.

Chris Carter
Year      BA    OBP    OPS    HR    RBI    BABIP    BB%    K%    HR%    XBH%
2014    .227   .308   .799    37       88      .267        9.8       31.8   6.5       10.3
2015    .183   .298   .677     17       49       .228       13.1      33      4.5        7.6

Luis Valbuena
Year      BA    OBP    OPS    HR    RBI    BABIP    BB%    K%    HR%    XBH%
2014    .249   .341    .776     16      51       .294         11.9     20.7   2.9       9.7
2015    .213   .295    .723     21      43      .215          9.5       21.8   5.4       8.5

Evan Gattis
Year      BA    OBP    OPS    HR    RBI    BABIP    BB%    K%    HR%    XBH%
2014    .263   .317    .810     22      52       .298       5.5       24.2   5.5        10
2015    .238   .270   .711       17      60       .262       3.8      20.7    4.0       9.3

Jose Altuve
Year      BA    OBP    OPS    HR    RBI    BABIP    BB%    K%    HR%    XBH%
2014    .341   .377    .830      7       59       .360        5.1       7.5      1.0        8.1
2015    .300  .345    .754      9       49       .317         5.2      9.6      1.9        6.3

Jason Castro
Year      BA    OBP    OPS    HR    RBI    BABIP    BB%    K%    HR%    XBH%
2014    .222  .286    .651      14      56       .294        6.6      29.5   2.7        7.2
2015    .214  .276     .660     10      29       .272        7.5      29.4   3.4        8.5

George Springer
Year      BA    OBP    OPS    HR    RBI    BABIP    BB%    K%    HR%    XBH%
2014    .231    .336    .804    20      51       .294        11.3      33      5.8        8.4
2015    .264   .365    .822     13       29      .337         13        26      4            8.3

Colby Rasmus
Year       BA    OBP    OPS    HR    RBI    BABIP    BB%    K%    HR%    XBH%
2014      .225   .267    .735     18       40      .294       7.7       33       4.8        10.6
2015      .239   .312    .774     15        42      .311        9.3       31.6    4.5        10.5

Jake Marisnick (2014 is Astros numbers only)

Year      BA     OBP    OPS    HR    RBI    BABIP    BB%    K%    HR%    XBH%
2014     .272   .299     .669    3        19        .352       2.7       25.8   1.6        5.9
2015     .227   .262     .617     5        21        .301        4.1       28      1.9         7

Comments on those numbers:

  • Basically, Carter, Altuve, Valbuena, Gattis and Marisnick are hitting significantly worse than last season.
  • Castro is basically hitting almost the same as last season. He is headed for a much worse RBI year, but he is hitting way down the lineup this season vs. last season when he spent a lot of time higher than his hitting deserved.
  • Springer and Rasmus are improved over last season as hitters. Cynics would say (and they may be right) that Rasmus is performing better because he is on a one year contract. It should also be pointed out that Springer has about as many ABs this season as last season at this point and though he is a much more efficient hitter, his power and RBI numbers are way down. No doubt his RBI numbers are down because he was moved to leadoff after struggling in the power center of the lineup.
  • Man, some of those terrible batting average on balls in play (BABIP) would seem to be almost unsustainable. Is there some luck involved in some numbers? Heck, who knows.
  • Carter – so dependent on power and here he is with much lower HR percentage and XBH percentage numbers.
  • Valbuena is hitting HRs at almost twice his rate last season, but he is lagging in overall XBH numbers.
  • Gattis is leading the team in RBIs (and triples) but you have to wonder how many RBIs a guy would have who is a better hitter with as many opportunities as he gets.
  • Altuve and Marisnick had probably unsustainable good BABIPs in 2014.

Looking it over, there are surely more players who are worse this season than last. And for those watching the team every day there sure seems to be no discernible change in the approaches of the worst offenders. Are these guys un-coachable? Or is the coach not coaching?

Where do you lay the blame here?

  • Luhnow for the hitters he brought in?
  • Hudgens for not coaching them up?
  • The hitters for not seeming to change their approach to improve?
  • Luhnow for hiring Hudgens?
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160 responses to “Astros hitting problems: The hitters or Hudgens?”

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  1. The announcers tried to lay that inning at Gomez’s feet, for some reason. But that was all on Kazmir. He walked the first run into scoring position with two outs and threw a horrible 0-2 meatball on the home run.
    Astros are in a big hope.
    By the way, has anybody noticed that the wild cards are slipping away from the AL West second place team? The way the teams are playing, the AL West will get only their division champion into the playoffs.

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    • We just saw a perfect example of the Astros’ hitting woes in the fifth inning. We got one out hits from Altuve and Tucker [the latter having a really good at bat] to put men at first and third with just one out and our #3 and #4 hitters coming up. But the Captain pops out to shallow right and Lowrie [not Brett] grounds out. Result: Houston still trails 5-2.

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    • OP1, I’m glad I’m not the only one who heard the boys in the booth try to pin that inning on Gomez. It’s getting to the point where I don’t think they are just incompetent.

      In spite of taking 2 of 3 from the Tigers, our home team has been playing pretty uninspired ball since they got home. I guess it doesn’t help when only 14,000 show up to watch a first place team, but these guys need a spark and it’s probably going to have to come from within. I hope they’re not waiting around for Springer.

      Our 33rd rounder in Fresno put his team up 2 zip in the first tonight with a dinger that raised his AAA average to .379 with a .480 OBP. I think he’s showing off a bit at this point. Maybe he’d add a bit of spark to this lathargic group.

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      • Ashby said it again, “on a different night that ball might be caught”. They are going after Gomez and cuddling Kazmir, who was just lousy tonight.

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  2. We need to bring someone up to be a long man outta the pen…..this is getting unreal. We have a long home stand, and if our starter can’t get out of the 5th or 6th inning our pen gets hammered.

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  3. Lifeless in the seventh. They look like dead men walking tonight. I hope I spoke too soon. Every time up tonight the Rays have started off with an outside fastball to Tucker that Joe West calls a strike. I guarantee if Root sports were to play back those pitches they would be outside. West sets up way inside and has no vision on the outside portion of the plate on left handed batters. It hasn’t affected Tampa because they had eight righties in their lineup so he sets up inside on them and can see that side of the plate for them.
    As far as White is concerned, he’s just like Duffy. Not on the roster, not gonna play. Luhnow thinks this team is a winner. Has never been the GM of a winner. He’s got his favorites and they continue to swing and miss or uppercut fly balls.

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    • White is 3-5 with 5 RBIs, 1 HR, and a run scored tonight. I guess Jeff doesn’t think he could help us much. By the way, some guy named Stassi is 3-3 with an RBI tonight. Where has that been all year?

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  5. Since the Astros did not play baseball tonight, I thought I could point out that Tyler White is now 3 for 3 with a home run and 5 RBIs He sits in a special spot on the bench with Kemp, Sclafani, Aplin and Duffy. It’s called Not a Prospect Purgatory and it’s on the opposite end of the bench from Fontana, Singleton, Stassi and Appel.

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    • You guys are seeing something in Kemp, Aplin, and Sclafani that I am not. Duffy looks like a good enough bat to take a bench spot…but as I complained about in spring training, Luhnow was convinced Gattis would hit 30 HR into the Crawford boxes and sacrificed lineup/roster flexibility for it. I think all could fill the 24th/25th spot on the roster…but don’t foresee starting lineup in the future at MLB level.

      I don’t think White is left off the 40 much longer…but the 25 gets interesting when we start looking at playoff possibilities. I know…gotta get there first…but makes sense to plan ahead.

      Fontana is going to be exposed to Rule V this winter. Sclafani probably will be as well. Stassi probably gets DFA if they cannot find a trade partner with the hope he makes it through waivers.

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      • What I’m seeing in Kemp and Sclafani and Aplin are three guys who have played their asses off for years and aren’t getting decent chances to play that dufuses like Leo Heras and Robbie Grossman have gotten.
        As for Duffy, you think he looks good enough to be a bench player on a team that has hit .180 for the last four years at first base? If Duffy could hit .250 that’s 75 points higher than Wallace, Pena, Kraus, Singleton, Carter and Valbuena hit in the last three seasons combined at first base. Our first baseman make the Exxon Valdez look like the Good Ship Lollipop!

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      • I’m on board with jettisoning Carter. I think Singleton or Duffy could fill his shoes. I’d be happy to see White get a shot as well. I can see where you are upset Sclafani hasn’t played more, but Aplin and Kemp have been starters and given the chance to play. Heras is stuck in AA and probably at the end of his rope. Grossman will be playing somewhere else next year, I bet.

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      • I can’t imagine Luhnow can ignore Tyler White’s numbers much longer. Especially when comparing them to Carter and Valbuena. What more does the guy have to do to warrant a spot on the big league club? He plays a position of extreme need and the division lead is slipping away.

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  6. 19 year old Francis Martes pitched seven shutout inning tonight IN LANCASTER. He gave up 2 hits, 1 walk and struck out 9 and his game score was 79! All that was against one of the teams they are fighting with for a playoff spot.
    Chase McDonald hit his 25th HR for Lancaster. You probably haven’t heard much about Chase because he’s a first baseman and they are not allowed to be top prospects because anyone can hit good and play first base as we have seen for years here in Houston.

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      • Game Score is a metric devised by Bill James to determine the strength of a pitcher in any particular baseball game. To determine a starting pitcher’s game score:
        1.Start with 50 points.
        2.Add one point for each out recorded, so three points for every complete inning pitched.
        3.Add two points for each inning completed after the fourth.
        4.Add one point for each strikeout.
        5.Subtract two points for each hit allowed.
        6.Subtract four points for each earned run allowed.
        7.Subtract two points for each unearned run allowed.
        8.Subtract one point for each walk.
        MLB and MILB have added this metric to their box scores as a way of instantly telling the reader what kind of performance the starting pitcher had.
        For example, if I had not wasted my time watching the Astros and just perused the box score I could note that the Rays pitcher had a game score of 49, after starting the game with a 50. So I know immediately that he did little to hurt or help his team with his pitching performance. By noticing that Kasmir had a game score of 29, after he started the game with a 50, I know instantly that he put his team in deep trouble with his pitching performance.
        I see that the A’s and Sonny Gray lost last night and I see Gray’s game score of 48 means he did little to help or hurt his team with his start. So, why did they lose? The A’s got only 3 hits.

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  7. Chis Carter does not belong on this team. I’m sick of listening to him go to the plate and strike out, time after time after time. If Jeff Luhnow doesn’t call up White and DFA Carter……he should be fired. People we have a LOT of games against the Rangers, and a LOT of games to play against the Angels in the next month. The Rangers walked in a walk off tonight, and don’t look now, but the are *3* games behind us. This is exactly what I was in fear of……if we can’t win three out of four of these games against the Rays, and the Rangers keep winning, as well as the Angels
    We have kissed winning this division goodbye. I’m not panicking, I’m a realist I see us sleep walking through some of these games, and if that happens, well……….

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    • Wait! We are not in first place anymore!

      You are wrong. Do you know why we will win the division? Because no one else in it is any good either. We only have to be the best of the mediocre. Scared of the Rangers? Really? They are so good they are basically a .500 ball club. They are mediocre.

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      • You could have said the same thing about the 2004 Astros at this same point in the season. I don’t buy that at all. Veteran teams like the Rangers have made a late charge toward the end of the season before. They are finally getting healthy and have improved their team over the 1st half of the season. Holland is returning this week.

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  8. Adding a bit more salt to our wounds, White ended up 4 for 5 last night with six RBI’s. He’s hitting .389 in Fresno with a .486 OBP and a 1.070 OPS. I guess he just does not “profile” correctly for this club.

    What I find amazing is that he’s only been in the minors since June of 2013, following the draft. He came out of Western Carolina University in Cullowhee NC. He played for three teams in the summer of 2013, two teams last year, and then Corpus and Fresno in 2015. He’s hit at every level and gets better the higher he goes. Lifetime in the minors he’s hit .312 with a .421 OBP and a .910 OPS. And although he’s only played 22 games at first this year, he’s error free. This guy is not a fluke, except for the fact that he was an afterthought 33rd round pick.

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  9. It’s obvious we have a legitimate first baseman in White. The only question is when.

    I wonder what the plan is for Carter. I can’t see anything positive in keeping him around. Unless I’m missing something.

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    • I completely agree. Clearly, they are not going to tender him a contract, at least I hope not. Thus, if they are planning to non-tender him at the end of the season why wait? Unless Luhnow thinks Hudgens is the problem and he will be gone after the season I can’t think of any other reason why Carter is remaining on this team instead of Tyler White. Can anyone offer an explanation?

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      • Quoting Jeff Luhnow in the Houston Spit on August 13th, 2015: “and I do think we have the right guys on the roster right now”

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  10. Anyone else remember the story last year about JL and the computers. He was bragging that when a player’s light turns “green” – he is ready to be promoted (Veras was the example).

    With that thought in mind, I wonder how many on the 25 man that have a bright “RED” light that has been blinking all year. If not, the Astros are using computers and software that was borrowed from Chernobyl.

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    • Good to hear. OP1. He will probably start out a little rusty. The keys to watch for me will be where his velocity settles in after the 1st inning, how well he commands and locates his breaking and off-speed stuff, whether he can consistently hit targets that are set low in the zone and on the inside corner, and, perhaps most importantly, how many swings and misses he gets on his heater.

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  12. Luhnow hasn’t impressed me with the moves he’s made in trades and free agent signings. Granted, he’s drafted very well but then he’s had the first pick for years.

    If he really believes he has the right guys right now, then HE needs to go. This team has been going down hill for at least 21/2 months. Even CC is starting to look bad at the plate.

    Hudgens?

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    • That makes zero sense – the team needs help and are sitting there with a doughnut hole at first base. I figured they would wait so long that White would be in a slump when they brought him up.
      If they bring up Villar and don’t bring up White in a couple weeks I will be hacked.

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      • I agree Dan. It makes no sense to trade for Kazmir, Gomez and Fiers , but then hold back your top producing prospect, especially when you have such a need at 1B. It smells of trying to maintain control over him for as long as possible. Either you’re going for it or you’re not, but don’t half-a$$ it this close to the finish line. M

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      • For some odd resonance they (Astros) were focused on his build and weight. Who cares how tall you are, he’s 5’10 or how much you weigh, uness he looks like Sandavol. At least we know the club knows we are not pleased one tiny bit, of watching Karter strike out while White is knocking the leather off the ball.
        WE. NEED. HELP. NOW.

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      • There is no reason to bring up Villar. We have plenty of options on the infield and he is no OFer. (We can argue later if he is even an INFer). Most teams bring up players to help. Obviously a couple pitchers are on their way. But we could certainly use another bat.

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    • Playing devil’s advocate, your playoff roster would be:
      12 pitcher
      2 catchers
      5 inf: Altuve, Lowrie, Correa, Valbuena, Carter
      5 OF: Springer, Gomez, Tucker, Rasmus, JFSF
      1 DH: Gattis

      Your option is to drop Carter, who is a known quantity with power or leave JFSF’s defense and speed out of the equation if you wanted to consider White for that 25th spot. I suspect they have more confidence that Carter is mediocre than White coming up and setting the world on fire. Biggio didn’t do it, Berkman didn’t do it, Springer struggled mightily…so I’m giving some benefit of the doubt here.

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      • I hear what your saying, Devin. I don’t think anyone here would expect Tyler White to have an OPS near 1.00 if brought up, but even an OPS around .825 would be a significant upgrade over Carter. In addition, he definitely won’t strike out as much as Carter, which should help in those situational hitting situations. Personally, I was hoping they would have tried to have gotten Napoli from Boston before he went to Texas. We have to find an upgrade for Carter. He barely starts anymore and he had limited value off the bench.

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    • Your post about weight and size reminded me of the time that a announcer was talking about how Ted Hendricks (Now in the NFL H of F) could not be any good at linebacker because of his build. (6-7 but only about 220 lbs). Alex Hawkins then said you have to make up your mind if you are going to play him or breed him.

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      • i remember that astros 45. he said “hell they didn’t bring him here to breed him they brought him to play football”. he got in trouble. Kendrick’s nickname because of his build and style was “the mad stork’.

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  15. It’s not about the way White is playing and it’s not about the way Carter is playing. It’s about the Astros brass and who they have confidence in to be on the team. They don’t have as much confidence in White as they do Carter.
    Just like they did not have as much confidence in JD Martinez as they did Robbie Grossman.
    And just like they did not have as much confidence in DDJ as they did Ronald Torreyes.
    Nobody is saying that it is smart. It is actually stupid! It is just what they think, and it’s their team. They can screw it up the way they see fit.. After all, they did not bring Carlos Correa to the majors in May because he just wasn’t good enough and Villar was. Sending VV and LMJ away was a great idea because everyone can see how the team has been playing so great since they left, right? Carter is due to show up any second now! Luhnow has that feeling deep down in his…..laptop.

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  16. Oldpro…….if not doing anything to help this club down the stretch, then Jim Crane and Jeff Luhnow will have to face the fans and take what they dish out. Missing the play offs due to not putting your best team on the field is the easiest way to look up and see Minute Maid Park dark. JEEZE….bring back Singelton, at least he tries to hit the ball. On the McCullers move, he is starting tonight so he can be good to go in the Dodgers series. I don’t know what the solution is, all I do know is we can’t do anything to make them play better, and it hurts to feel helpless as a fan. Sorry….I just needed to vent.

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    • It’s ok to vent.
      Last year Billy Beane, the darling of new age baseball made moves that cost his team the playoffs. His team was in first place all season until the cutoff and he messed it up. It may be that way in the AL West again this year, but it will just go to show that the guys who think they are smart, aren’t always smart.
      It also points out that if you have a plan to build from within, and then panic and change course. you just might find out that you would have been better off sticking to the plan.
      You would also still have Phillips and Nottingham.

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      • True, but it isn’t like making those trades derailed the rebuild through the farm system. There are still many great prospects down on the farm. I don’t fault the trades, even with Gomez struggling mightily. If he performed like he was expected we probably would not even be having this discussion. The fact Gomez is performing horribly and Kazmir has not been the same Kazmir he was in Oakland, so far, makes everyone question the trades. If the Blue Jays don’t win it this year there isn’t much hope for them going forward as they completely gutted their farm system with the trades they made. The Astros didn’t do that.

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  17. Please stop with the experiments!! Marwin Gonzalez is *NOT* a left fielder!! Feldman has a high amount of fly balls…….put someone over there that can RUN THE BALLS DOWN! Good Lord.

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    • Well, to be fair, Marisnick is an offensive downgrade and Tucker is a defensive downgrade. I would have preferred Tucker over MarGo though. We need offense right now.

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    • Well, it just shows how much you and I know, Becky. We both wanted MarGo on the bench and he was involved in all 3 runs, including the game-winning walkoff HR. LOL!

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  18. I will be very frank here. They owe us. Crane and Luhnow owe the fans of Houston their best effort to win – NOW!!! I know we are building for the long term and all – but you could have the team go out and win 93 games next year and not make the playoffs. An unexpected chance has been given to this team and it feels like just a little tweaking will give them a better chance to win. TAKE IT!!!!
    Sorry, I did not mean to shout while typing…..

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    • Exactly, and bringing up Tyler White won’t cost the Astros any players other than Chris Carter. It will cost them team control for one less season, but at this point that should not matter any more. We should be in win mode now.

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      • Tim….my mother had a saying that’s carried me through life. ” if you don’t try you’ll never know if you could do it”. I see no harm bringing White up for the rest of the season. The guy *is* a first baseman, who can actually play 1st base. That alone should get him a nod…
        And wave bye bye to Karter. Fish or cut bait.

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      • The thing about White is that Luhnow should not be worried about his years of team control. We’ve got another first baseman tearing it up down in Corpus. White probably will not be around long in this organization, but I simply can’t be convinced that he would not be an upgrade over Carter today. And we should be using all of our resources to win baseball games right now. Our biggest mess is first base. We’ve got the potential of a real and immediate solution. And if we’ve let Carter go and White should fail miserably, I’d still rather end up with Singleton then have to endure Carter any longer.

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  19. So I am at the game tonight on the club level thanks to my friend Charlie. I’m walking to my seat and I pass Jeff Luhnow on the phone and smiling.
    I was hoping that he just closed a waiver deal for Carter for a bucket of balls.

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  20. With Springer out, Correa and Tucker slumping, Altuve suddenly unable to steal bases anymore, and not much else anywhere in the line-up worth watching to begin with, this has become a downright frustrating team to watch – especially on offense.

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  21. So I get up to do the dishes after Altuve ends the ninth thinking, “I’ll get back in time to see Correa in the bottom of the tenth,” but Marwin!!! had other ideas!!!

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