Without the farm, where would the Astros be?

As I watched Preston Tucker‘s third hit of the night clear the left field wall Sunday afternoon, I marveled at how good he is. For a guy who has only played in 57 games, he’s got a .754 OPS, 23 RBIs, 6 long balls and has managed to strike out just 42 times in 189 ABs.

Yep, Tucker looks like the real deal. Most seasons, we’d be calling him our Rookie of the Year candidate, clamoring for him to play daily (though many of us do this anyway), and we’d be wishing the farm system had another one just like him.

Yeah, I’m so over Preston “Weak Tea” Tucker.

Just kidding. But seriously, most year’s we’d have been thrilled to get a quality rookie like Tucker. Now, he’s just another young, fresh face in the crowd.

“Have You Met Carlos?”

If you thought Tucker was impressive, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. Sunday afternoon, uber rookie Carlos Correa doubled, singled, walked twice and scored three runs. The Pride of Puerto Rico raised his OPS to .862 in a season where he’s whiffed a mere 30 times (or as Chris Carter calls that, “last week”) in 145 ABs. His WAR at 1.6 thus far dwarfs Tucker’s lousy (tongue firmly in cheek) 0.3 WAR.

Best of all, Correa is doing this while playing an often dazzling shortstop and being the kind of leader we kept hearing about when he was in the minors. He’s obviously our best rookie, right? Right?

I Like Lance … A Lot

All this rookie love (my nickname in high school) isn’t just limited to the sluggers. Lance McCullers Jr. has been nothing but ace material on the mound. For the record, this will probably be the second year Houston has a legit Rookie of the Year candidate in the rotation.

McCullers is 4-3 with a 2.52 ERA — more than sustainable considering his 2.56 FIP, 1.104 WHIP and amazing 9.9 K/9. The only limit for McCullers (this year) will be how many innings Luhnow and the Brain Trust think he can handle. Oh, and he’s already earned a 1.6 WAR this season, tying Correa for the team rookie lead.

So, other than their rookie status, what do these three have in common? Well, there’s the fact all three came from that monumental 2012 draft. All three have played together on teams that eventually won championships in the minor leagues. And the trio ranges from solid MLB contributors (Tucker) to potential All-Stars (McCullers) or better (Correa).

And that’s just part of this year’s rookie crop. Domingo Santana was not quite ripe last year, so they plucked him this season and, in limited action, he is sporting a .771 OPS. Vincent Velasquez is 0-1, but has a 0.3 WAR, a 3.94 ERA and, in his six starts, has been the starting pitcher for three team wins and two hard-luck losses.

Things That Make You Go, Hmm

First, when Luhnow has a good draft, he really wins big. Which reminds me, wasn’t this year supposedly a good draft?

Second, when was the last time someone misspelled Luhnow’s name as Luhn-hole?

Third, with so many great rookies, has Tucker’s performance been lost in the shuffle?

Fourth, with so many quality promotions, is the cupboard bare? Remember, most of us at the start of the season thought the only call-up that might — MIGHT — pay big dividends would be Santana or Appel. Santana would rebound, the thinking went, and Appel had just finished strong at AA then put it all together in the Arizona Fall League. Correa was coming off a major injury, and had only played half a season at misleading Lancaster. Most of our better talent was still a year away. No one was clamoring for McCullers. Tucker wasn’t on anyone’s radar. Correa was a pipe dream in need of some more seasoning. (Ah, to be that young and naive again …)

Fifth, has anyone seen our old friend Bopert recently? I mean I haven’t seen anyone calling Jim Crane a war profiteer in months.

Sixth, so back to that thought on “Fourth,” what player in the minors right now do you think will be that surprise contributor in 2016 … or late 2015? Conrad Gregor? Colin Moran? Brett Phillips? Chris Devenski? Michael Feliz (who already made one brief appearance in Houston)?

Seventh, is this what a sustainable dynasty looks like?

Eighth, who is your Rookie of the Year? Not just in Houston, but in the American League?

98 responses to “Without the farm, where would the Astros be?”

  1. Good piece Brian – our cup does runneth over.
    Before getting to your questions I wanted to hit on one thing from the previous post. A lot of people think the BoSox will be a push over after playing a day-night West Coast double header and flying red eye into Houston.
    My contention is that Boston is well rested, because they sure did not show up for the 4 game sweep by the Angels. 4 runs in 4 games, never had the lead in any game. They will be a dangerous team to play right now.

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  2. What leaps off this page is the age of the team. With Lowrie out, all position players are under 30. Those listed above Tucker (24), Correa (20), and McCullers (21). Then add Santana (22), V V (23), Altuve (25), Springer (25) & Singleton (with fingers crossed) (23). This could be a very, very good team for a while. But it is worth noting that before Paul Richards was fired as GM in 1965 – he had assembled the following Staub (21), Morgan (21), Wynn (23), Jackson (20), & Dierker (18). Then Tal Smith took over.

    http://astrosdaily.com/history/19630927/

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    • The GM job was shared by Tal Smith, Spec Richardson and Grady Hatton for about a year and a half. Then Spec Richardson took over as GM in 1967-75 – he is the one who traded Staub and Morgan away, along with the late great Mike Cuellar, John Mayberry and others.

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  3. Thoughts on your post:
    – That 2012 draft was franchise changing. Very few drafts ever have the quality that Correa, Tucker and LMJ have already shown. Beyond them – Brett Phillips is considered one of the top prospects in the organization, Tyler Heineman could well be the next catcher up, Joe Sclafani, Jordan Jankowski, Mike Haushchild, Andrew Aplin, Brady Rodgers and Nolan Fontana have all performed decently to good at AAA and any of them could get a call-up under the right circumstances. Travis Ballew, Aaron West and Brian Holmes are pitching well at AA, but are all on the cusp of being too old.
    – Luhnow is having a much better year this year than where he was last season at this time with Correa’s injury, Appel’s poor performances and Aiken’s non-signing.
    – It is weird that a guy hitting up in the lineup like Tucker is over-looked, but yes he is not considered on the level with Correa and LMJ, but he certainly has earned consistent play time.
    – The cupboard is not bare, but if you look at the minors as a garden, there is a crop coming, but most of it could use a little more time to grow.
    – I’m listening to my fellow bloggers and think Colin Moran may be the surprise for next year. I had dropped him down or off my top prospects list (can’t remember right now and too lazy to go look it up). But he has been solid and if he could show a bit more power with age, he could be a longer term answer at third base (until Bregman gets here).
    – Not quite to full sustainable, because we don’t know about who will or will not be traded, but future crops look pretty darn good.
    – I think that Carlos Correa and possibly LMJ have good shots at the ROY if they can play enough and roll up enough numbers over the rest of the season. There are a lot of good to very good rookies, but no one is running away with it. Right now – Devon Travis has comparable numbers to Correa (.302 BA / .352 OBP / .839 OPS) over 20 more games. Guys like Carson Smith, Carlos Rodon (did someone say the Astros needed one more good pitcher), Chi Chi Rodriguez and DDJ have been good+. The Buxtons and Gallos have a ways to go.
    I think Correa is going to keep playing like he has and will take this sucker.

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      • Staying healthy has been a prob for Moran, but each time he has recovered from leg injuries he has come back raking. The jaw thing was a freak injury.

        But to add to your quip, Gregor has been dropping bombs since Reed got promoted…so don’t discount the theory that these guys get fires lit under them from the coming competition.

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    • BTW, Bregman went 3-for-5 last night and has raised his average to .283. Can a move to Lancaster be far? Or maybe Lancaster/Corpus next year with a target on 2017?

      There’s that year again.

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  4. Correa is my top rookie. If Houston continues to win he may take the hardware.

    Where would we be without our farm system? Well, Keuchel, Springer, and Altuve were both home grown too. We got some arms in FA this off season, but I don’t think they sign here without the presence of the aforementioned three. Ditto Rasmus. So, without the farm you probably would have seen a few more trades for reclamation projects.

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    • Devin, excellent point about the free agents. I think without Springer and Altuve — and the wealth to trade for Gattis and Valbuena (who looked better before the season started) — and Correa on the way, there’s no way Gregerson and Neshik sign. And I’m pretty sure Rasmus is in Atlanta or Arizona. Or (gulp!) Arlington.

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  5. Brian i have dropped the ball lately ,so here you go Lunhole LOL, I be darned if a Monkey/JF doesn’t fall out of a tree once in a while. Correa stays healthy ROY. Let just win tonight, 1 at a time.

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    • Jake certainly looks like a ballplayer out there in center. Very athletic for a 6′ 4″ guy. He’s not afraid of going back to the wall. He charges balls hit on the ground well. And even with a sometimes erratic arm, he’s 5th in MLB for centerfielders with 6 assists. Does not always take the best route on balls hit in the air.

      Amongst MLB centerfielders, he’s 17th in range factor and 18th in DWAR. I’ll be the first to admit that those stats are not the most definitive ones in baseball. However, they should not be fully overlooked.

      He’s certainly a defensive talent, but has a ways to go.

      My continuing argument is that he simply does not do enough overall (including at the plate) to keep him on the field, whether hitting 9th or 19th.

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      • I don’t like those defensive stats because a player on a team with extreme ground ball pitchers gets fewer chances and therefore receives lower scores. It’s the flip for infielders on teams with extreme fly ball pitching tendencies.

        Ideally the cameras and radars in parks now can start to quantify range such the batted balls can be compared and predictive analysis used to say fielder A makes the play but fielder B comes up short.

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  6. The Astros don’t just have a terrific farm system, they have the best farm system and they have the youngest farm system.
    We forget about players on our farm system because we hear their names over and over and then we look at their stats and go ho hum.
    But we have to realize that we have guys like Danry Vasqez and Teoscar Hernandez and they are former top 20 prospects because we have 35 top 20 prospects in our farm system, right now! These two guys are 21 and 22 years old playing in AA ball. The reason they aren’t top 20 prospect is because they are playing in a league where they face guys who 3 and 4 years older than them every day. By the time these two get to 25 years old they are going to be major league players. And we have a whole slew of them in our minors.
    The Astros have three pitchers in their system right now who would be in any team’s top 20 prospect list and these three guys aren’t even listed in our top 30. But, they will be soon unless we trade them. And these three names might fool you because they might not be who you are thinking of. David Paulino, Akeem Bostick and Francis Martes. Because of their arms and their age and rule V status you are going to see them either as trade material for big name rentals, or they are going to jump quickly through the system because these are three big arms who could end up in the back end of our bullpen soon. All three of these guys were kept in extended spring training to work on their stuff and it is paying off.
    Guys like Kemmer, Gregor, Kemp and White and Moran get overlooked because of Correa, Phillips, Reed and LMJ and the huge numbers that our Top 10 guys put up, but these guys are really good ball players and not all of them are going to play for Houston, because there won’t be enough room. But you can bet that Luhnow knows exactly which one’s he wants to keep , which one’s are going to succeed in our system and which ones will bring him what he wants in return.

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    • To me, a good example of our farm depth is Jio Mier. Here’s a very good defensive AA shortstop hitting in the .250s and an OPS of .729. He’s 24, which isn’t young, but he’s just a late bloomer with his hit tool. Oh, and he’s only whiffed 52 times in 250 ABs.

      A lot of teams would take him as the second piece in a trade, yet this is a guy who is on our scrap heap.

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  7. If the Padres indeed are willing to throw in a bunch of cash to the team that takes Shields, I would be on the phone with Peller, now. Shields fits the need, his contract is not outlandish(especially if the Padres pick up some of it), the padres want to unload and pick up young players and we have them. I’d be talking about Upton, too.

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  8. Tucker is lost in the shuffle because he has to dance around from the bench to the field, from one position in the lineup to the other and from LF to RF.
    Honestly, If you put him in the DH and the #5 spot in the order and leave him there, he’s going to hit for a higher average, more HR’s and more RBI’s than Gattis or Carter or Rasmus or anybody else we have. He’s made for it. Imagine his bat with an extreme shift and runners on base pounding that pitch to left field. Imagine him pounding the pitch to right field with runners on base and no shift on and that hole on the right side. I mean, this kid just turned 25 and has 10 weeks in the majors and already is adjusting and causing problems.
    Look at his homers in the minors. The Crawford Boxes are a playground for him. He is going to drive pitchers nuts because he hasn’t even shown his real power yet. Tucker has upper deck power and a good eye and can hit to all fields. He has a lot better foot speed running out doubles than he does chasing down doubles.

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    • In full agreement with 1op on Tucker. The more he hits to left, the more essential it is to keep him.
      My guess is Phillips (if he’s not traded) or Moran for biggest surprises in 2016, with a longshot possibility of Santana. Go with Correa for ROY.

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    • Like I said, this post started with my amazement with Tucker. I think he’s a future star. He’s like Terry Puhl — without quite the defense — in my opinion. Terry Puhl! Heck yeah, I’ll take that!

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    • I will acknowledge that Tucker has deficiencies in the field. But if he is our “worst” defensive outfielder, we are O.K. And if we move him to DH, we have no place for Gattis. Not a big loss, but still a power bat gone. When Springer returns, Tucker will probably sit more and that is not good. So it is time to move some guys and I hope it is NOT Tucker.

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      • You are correct. With Tucker at DH you have no place for Gattis. Tucker would replace Gattis and then Gattis becomes an asset to be traded for another piece of the puzzle.
        I like Gattis but his numbers are poor. Tucker is killing it compared to Gattis in oWar. If you replace Gattis with Tucker and make a trade for Justin Upton, you sure don’t need Gattis!

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  9. On the radio this morning they were talking about how the Tigers are going to be sellers and speculating about David Price. He would be a rental but maybe you decide to invest in him?
    I like Shields – how many years on his contract?

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    • Dan, this is ugly. He will be 34 in December. Here is what he signed last winter:

      2015 – $10 million
      2016 – $21 million
      2017 – $21 million
      2018 – $21 million
      2019 – $16 million club option or $2 million buyout

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      • So you are paying him through his year 36 season with some help from San Diego. Why the Yikes? Shields is a terrific pitcher. and 21mil is not high for a certified ace.
        We paid Pettitte $16.4 mil in his year 34 and that was eight years ago and he wasn’t even an ace. He was actually our #3. In today’s dollars, Shields salary is a bargain, especially if the Padres will pay some of it.

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      • I would like to know what the give up is first. If its some folks rated down at the bottom of the top 40 prospect list for us, and its a salary dump for San Diego, I’m in. Shields is an ace, and he is pitching like one again this year. His ERA is a little bloated from 2 bad starts, but he has 8 wins, is as durable as he has ever been, and is having a career year in K/9 – which tells me his arm is still gassed up. I agree with OP, he is cheap for an ace.

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      • You make an interesting point – It’s just sticker shock for me. He might be worth it when you consider how much guys this winter will cost. I’m most concerned about which prospects we would lose to take on a guy who wasn’t great last postseason and should enter a declination.

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    • I believe signed through 2018 w/ a club option for 2019, including a buyout which SD is willing to pay for in the trade.

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      • Clarification – the opt out clause is solely a player one, not a team one. He does NOT have a no trade clause of any kind though, so forcing the option year is not in anyones power. We would basically be sitting under 3 years/63 million deal with a 16 mil option and 2 mil buyout. I take that for a guy that I can slide in between Keuchel and McCullers, put McHugh fourth, and VV fifth, or swing VV back to AAA – or even to the BP, and stick with Feldman.

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      • Steven, I think you are going to have to give up at least one prospect that really hurts, for Shields. After all, you would have an ace for this year’s race, next year’s race and then if he opts out, you are off the hook for that last $42 mil. If he doesn’t opt out you still have a bargain if he’s still at least a #1 or #2 starter. I don’t think it’s gonna happen unless you give SD a couple of good prospects for an ace, especially if they are going to kick in cash.

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  10. To be honest though, I don’t expect the Padres to move Shields. I do expect them to move Kennedy, but he wouldn’t serve a purpose for us given that Feldman is just as capable of being that 7 inning guy at the bottom of the rotation that will win some, lose some, but save your BP arms at least half his starts.

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  11. I guess I have not been paying attention. Didn’t even know VV was starting tonight. But how long will Sipp remain the only lefty in the pen?

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    • It will interesting to see how VV performs after two weeks off – well, at least out of a regular rotation. You and I know darn well that he’s been throwing bullpens and has used his arm every bit as much as he would have if he’d remained in the rotation. This could be a test run, to see if the “Shuttle-Your-Starters-to-Limit-Their-Official-IP Totals” plan – which of course is just a mind game – is going to be workable for him and perhaps LMJ.

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    • good question dave. if we call someone up it looks like our options are limited to cruz or chapman. i guess you could throw obie in there if he is no longer a starter. or maybe a lefty coming in a trade? who knows? but having sipp as the only lefty for very long makes me nervous.

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      • Don’t forget, we have 24 year old Chris Cotton as our lefty out of the bullpen at Corpus Christi. He is 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP for the Hooks in 17 games and 22 IP. Heck, he was even good at Lancaster earlier this year, where he had a 1.41 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in the all-offense California league over 25 IP. He struck out 37 in his 25 IP at Lancaster. The only problem so far is that he tends to be a fly ball pitcher, and he will need to work on his GO/AO ratio to stick in Houston long term.

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  12. I am not surprised at all about Thatcher. There is no way I want him coming out of my bullpen in a pennant race with having to face division rivals nineteen times apiece. Once a batter gets over the funky delivery, he just has to sit and wait for a funky 86 mph fastball in the strike zone. That’s all Thatcher had and he got away with it once against the league. The second time around, it was just sit back and wait for your pitch because he was going to throw it. Once Thatcher figured out that the batters had figured him out, he started having to throw at the corners and started walking batters and falling behind.
    The Astros might go with one lefty in the BP for a few days until they get this trade thing, or things, settled.

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    • Thatcher lasted longer than I suspected. But remember a couple years ago (at least it seems that long), Chip wrote about the logjam coming. I think we are there. I think we have 4-8 on the 40 man that we will not even get an “A ball” prospect, nor a PTNL, nor cash. (See Matty D earlier in the year.) They served us well In the transition but that day is over. And when your 88 mph fastball? drops to 86, you need to come early and toss batting practice.

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  13. Some guy named Lowrie may be taking a few swings in Corpus Christi tonight. Get well soon, Jed from Stanford U!

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    • We are facing a soft throwing left hander that nobody has ever faced before. So we field a lineup of right handed hitters who hit soft throwing lefties. There are stats available on line that split out how the batters hit lefties and righties and how they fare against power pitchers, finesse pitchers and inbetweeners.

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  14. You need to pay attention to a pitcher whose making their debut. The last guy the red Sox sent a rookie to the hill, he came very close to firing a no hitter. So be very careful about getting too giddy about facing a guy making his mlb debut. Gatti in left tonight….makes me very nervous.

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  15. Thatcher’s DFA allowed VV to come back on the 25 man but it also paves the way for Lowrie to come off the 60 day DL. With Presley’s DFA I think that leaves 39 guys on the 40 man when Lowrie returns so there is a little wiggle room if Lunhow wants to promote one of the prospects not presently on the 40 man.

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  16. Colin Moran with another homer tonight and 2 RBIs. Fourth inning in Corpus. No Jed Lowrie sighting there yet.

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  17. VV not getting it done tonight. I personally think he is either overrated or not ready for prime time. Maybe a short reliever but reminds me of Wandy Rodriguez. Always has a bad inning that costs us the game.

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    • Jeez, you guys are being pretty tough on young Vince. Comes into the game with 32 ML innings under his belt. Two of the three runs he’s given up came off a check swing down the line off an extreme shift. Seven K’s, no walks. He’s getting ready to finish up a very solid six innings for us.

      He in no way reminds me of Wandy Rodriquez!

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      • I agree. VV is just getting his feet wet. If he’s not ready for a pennant race it shouldn’t be a surprise…but there is a lot of potential there.

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      • With a more time and experience in the league this guy could easily become an ace. Unlike Wandy, VV has both excellent stuff and mental toughness. Everybody is going to have a hard luck inning from time to time – baseball is a game of inches. But how a pitcher responds to a hard luck inning – or a finicky plate umpire with a strike zone the size of his IQ – is what you want to look for. VV’s zero walk stat should speaks volumes. He did not lose his command. He did not lose his cool. And he came back strong, and finished well.

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  18. Wow I don’t even know where to go on VV /Wandy comparison Yikes. VV had one tough luck inning with a check swing Double, Buzzards Luck. Mean while we are crap at the plate so far, we can’t hit a 30 MPH curve yet. If VV holds them to 3 he has done his job.

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  19. Maybe you guys are right. It just seems he gets snake bit by the one bad inning. Definitely want him to succeed. I agree on the hold to 3 runs. It’s just that they seem to come all at once and we’re behind the 8 ball. I see we’ve had a rally. SUPER!

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  20. Dang…….what did the Sox have against marwin
    tonight??!! Hit the poor guy twice in the leg, and the shin. Our rookie won the battle tonight, but I’ll cut the kid with the Sox some slack, the was his first mlb game! Marisnick was bringing it tonight!!

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  21. The Astros and Padres are in talks for Tyson Ross or Andrew cashner. If luhnow could swing a trade for cashner…..omg that would be awesome!!! I don’t want to rent some guy for a couple of months when luhnow could get a guy like cashner for the next 2-3 years. Hamel’s is *not* going to come to Houston. Period.

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  22. And Brian T – couldn’t your Twins do better than a 7-0 shellacking by the Angels? My gosh the Angels are just on a super roll right now.

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    • Dan, I was disappointed by that at first, but then remembered the Twins were ahead of us in the WC standings…so we need to pass them too.

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  23. Jake Marisnick looked like the baseball version of JJ Watt last night. Whatever they served him in the buffet, they need to keep doing that. Freeze him and thaw him out again tonight. Plug his charger in. Take a DNA sample and start cloning. Make sure Lois Lane is at the ballpark tonight. Buy him an extra pair of Khakis. Make sure the AMC green Hornet is full of fuel. Give him a blue pill. A spider bite. Get that blow dryer. Put some plastic drop cloths over Julia and tell her to stand by with a mic.
    Mr. Sulu, warp nine. Thataway!

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    • The bigger shock was that Chris Carter actually looked almost like a hitter last night for the first time all year. Beam him up, somebody.

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    • I love a good Superman flying into home plate pic as much as the next guy, but since there was no play, why didn’t somebody [Carter, who just scored, or Altuve, was in the box] signal him to come in standing? Or was Jake’s hair just in his eyes so badly he didn’t see the signal. That slide was not logical, Captain.

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  24. The lefties are back at MMP! A.J. Hinch has five lefthanders in the line-up for the ‘Stros tonight -Tucker, Valbueana, Rasmus, Singleton & Castro.

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  25. hee hee hee i love getting up every morning to see if the team has made a trade to help with the stretch run. its exciting to be in the race after years of being out of it by this point. woo hoo! please don’t give away the farm, but little help would be nice.

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  26. Been thinking today about the upcoming July 31 trade deadline and the ‘great dance’ of the buyers and the sellers that is leading up to it. No seller ever wants to want to make the 1st trade – especially this year, when the extra wild card has the number of potential buyers burgeoning. All the sellers want to be able to judge the trade offers they are getting – especially those involving prospects and cash considerations – by comparing them straight-up to what other sellers are getting for TORs, MORs, innings-eaters, hard-throwing relievers, or for dependable power bats.

    Some day soon, however, the shoe will drop. It has to. Once the first trade is announced, and the market begins to shake out [and thin out], every seller will be scrambling to get the best deal they can before the deadline. They need to dump salary more than they need to be picky. But they have to get something, to save face with the fans and keep their jobs.

    For the Astros what all that should mean is that if the seller’s bottom line includes Altuve, Springer, Correa, Tucker, McCullers, Velasquez, Reed, Phillips, Kemp, or Nottingham, the answer should be ‘we’ll pass’ or ‘let’s talk again a little closer to the deadline, when you are a little more desperate.’

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  27. I’m sick of:
    – JFSF trying to drop down a bunt when it is not appropriate
    – Castro taking good pitches for strike outs and then arguing about it

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    • I think Jason Castro will be a big part of any trade this year. Really the only thing he’s really good at is throwing out most base stealers. I can’t remember the last time he hit a home run, or got a hit for that matter.

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  28. Meanwhile, Preston Tucker is making me look like a genius for writing this post.

    Two very different homers on two very different pitches. This kid has it all.

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  29. It’s appropriate that this post starts out talking about Tucker, because the Astros don’t win tonight’s game without him.
    He’s the real deal and we need more guys like him in our lineup.

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