Free Blog Weekend: What a difference a year makes

As I write, it’s 2-1 Mariners, and Luis Valbuena opened the inning with a walk. The game started with Scott Feldman spotting the M’s a 2-0 lead. Last season, I would have pretty much written off the game if that happened. Now, I’m just waiting for Houston to tie it back up.

What a difference a year makes.

George Springer singled. Poor Mariners throws got us second and third with no one out. Evan Gattis just grounded in Valbuena to tie the game.

Unlike last season, most of you are probably watching this with me. The TV deal has made a real difference. That TV money bought Colby Rasmus and some bullpen pieces. It’ll allow Luhnow to tie up Dallas Keuchel and maybe Collin McHugh for a few years beyond arbitration.

What a difference a year makes.

I look at the Mariners and think, these guys aren’t any better than Houston. I think that about a lot of teams. I thought the same thing about San Diego. The surprise, to me, wasn’t that Houston beat the Padres and Oakland. It was that the Astros swept them both on the road.

What a difference a year makes.

Jake Marisnick just made a nice catch in center field. He is one of many players who, I think, make this defense collectively so much better. I mentioned this the other day. Jose Altuve hit a ground rule double I thought was going to be caught … until I realized the other team did not have Marisnick in center. Jake, Springer and Rasmus make Houston’s outfield a tough place to buy a hit for opponents. I’m pretty sure that adds to the confidence in Houston’s pitching staff.

What a difference a year makes.

Last season, the Astros won only 32 games on the road. They’ve won 10 road games here in April. While that’s a little unsustainable, it shows how far ahead this team is from 2014. The Astros need only another 22 road wins to match last season’s road total. That means going 22-47 the rest of the way away from Houston. That’d be a 31.9 winning percentage. Heck, if they just match last season’s 39.5 winning percentage the rest of the way, the Astros would end up with 37 road wins, a 5-game pick up. That’s almost half way to getting those 81 wins.

Of course, Houston is only 5-6 at home right now (this game isn’t over as we head to the bottom of the 8th), which at 45.5 is just a couple of points off from last season’s 46.9. If Houston can go .500 at home for the season, or thereabouts, that’s 40 to 41 wins at home, which would be a 3-game pickup at best. Well, that won’t get Houston to .500, but I think .500 at home is short-changing this team.

What a difference a year makes.

Last season in hitter-friendly Lancaster, Carlos Correa hit .325 with a .926 OPS. This season at sea-level in a tougher pitchers league, Correa is hitting .385 with an OPS of 1.199. Tony Kemp is hitting .349. Conrad Gregor, who started last season in Quad Cities, is hitting .290 in Corpus right now. Colin Moran almost seems disappointing at .268.

At AAA in Fresno, the Grizz got hammered early. That hasn’t stopped Preston Tucker from (as I write this) hitting his ninth home run of the season. It’s a two-run shot. Tucker is hitting .329, and he’s only struck out 14 times in 79 ABs thus far, walking 6 times. There’s a lot of talent down on the farm, and while that’s nothing new, suddenly it’s knocking at the door. Correa may be a little premature for a call up. He’s been in AA for less than a month. But if Luhnow had brought up Tucker instead of the uncharacteristically hot hitting L.J. Hoes, I don’t think anyone would have batted an eye over it.

What a difference a year makes.

That said, I don’t really see anyone clamoring for an infusion of minor leaguers. The talent is there on the farm. Maybe more so than ever. But this major league team is filled with actual major league talent. Jed Lowrie goes down, and my big complaint isn’t the guy at shortstop, but the guy who is now Houston’s utility player (I’m looking at you, Jonathan Villar!). The Astros, frankly, have too many quality outfielders. I really don’t throw a huff over anyone being called in from the bullpen. Not even Neshek,

What a difference a year makes.

And with guys on first and second, Altuve just knocked home Marwin Gonzalez to win this game. And that’s a happy team on TV right now. But don’t forget El Oso Blanco driving in a pair of runs without getting a hit. Timely contact and advancing runners without getting hits is something new in 2015.

What a difference a year makes.

So, what are the big differences you see?

Altuve is Altuve. Springer will be Springer. Who, on the offense, has amazed you the most?

One of my favorite lines from the movie Major League is when the guys start arriving for spring training, and Roger Dorn (Corbin Bernsen) shows up. Lou says, “I thought you said we didn’t have any high-priced talent.” And Charlie replies. “Oh, I forgot about Dorn because he’s only high-priced.” Sure, Rasmus is making money. And, while he’s still underpaid, Altuve gets seven figures a season. The Astros have a pair of relievers — not to mention Feldman — making some Lotto-style cash. But there’s a lot of guys providing good value financially. Who should Luhnow look to lock up next?

Hoes basically got called up because he can play in the field, and he was on the 40-man roster. What player — no roster considerations — do you want to see next? Oh, and your answer can’t be Correa. That’s cheating.

Houston has finished April at 15-7. At one point, this team was 4-6. So, streaks are a nice thing when you’re winning. But as all Astros fans know, it’s easy to have a losing streak, too. What will stop this team from having a bad losing streak? Will it be the dual aces of McHugh and Keuchel? The fact that this team is always a walk and big swing away from a crooked number on the scoreboard? Is it Springer’s amazing glove work in right field?

Last season, by the way, Houston went 9-19 in April, and it didn’t win its 15th game until May 17.

What a difference …

 

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53 responses to “Free Blog Weekend: What a difference a year makes”

  1. It has been a long time Brian T – since April has been kind to the Astros (or the Astros have been kind to their fans).
    2007 10-14 5 Games Back
    2008 13-16 5 GB
    2009 9-13 6 GB
    2010 8-14 6.5 GB
    2011 10-17 6 GB
    2012 9-14 5.5 GB
    2013 8-19 9.5 GB
    2014 9-19 9 GB

    It has been since 2006 – (16-8 and 0.5 GB) since the Astros had a better than .500 record or even seemed competitive. The last two years we knew it was over going into the season and April confirmed that it was beyond over…..

    So 15-7 and 4 games ahead is so elevated and heady that we are all ready to grab for the oxygen masks.

    The big differences that I see:
    – A very solid team defense – they are really limiting the mistakes and while the infield is not special defensively being consistent goes a long way. The outfield defense is just a joy to watch.
    – Guys picking each other up – they are still striking out too often, but instead of a strikeout with a guy on base leading to a funk – often it leads to someone getting a big two out hit.
    – The pitching has been as good as you could have expected. The starters have the 3rd best ERA in the AL (3.50), the relievers have the 3rd best ERA in the AL (2.18) and the staff cumulatively has the best ERA in the AL (3.04).

    Last April:
    – Springer was up but was not yet hitting
    – We thought Guzman was going to be our 1B, but was not yet hitting
    – Keuchel was decent but not yet solid
    – McHugh had less starts than Lucas Harrell
    – The bullpen was in disarray with Albers getting injured on top of Crain never pitching an inning
    – Villar was the starting SS, Dominguez at 3B
    – And Bo Porter was managing instead of AJ Hinch

    This is a major league team we are watching, the pitching is keeping them in every game and the hitting seems to be streaky but fairly clutch. This is fun – this is a whole heck of a lot more fun that 9 games back after 1 month.

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  2. Disregarding roster implications, the player I want to see most is Vincent Velasquez. Why? Well, he keeps getting hyped as possibly the best shot at a TOR pitcher, but can’t stay healthy. I say, if we can only get 50 innings a year, let’s make them count!

    If we are considering roster implications, I’d like to see Torreyes if Villar gets demoted again. He is on the 40 man…time to figure out if that was worthwhile. Also, it would be nice to move him as an asset with high value rather than let him get claimed off waivers this winter.

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    • Velasquez is hurt. Hasn’t pitched all spring. Has little time at AA. I doubt he is going to be in AAA this season, let alone the majors.
      Torreyes is in a bad slump at AAA. I doubt if they want to try his luck at the majors right now.
      If you want to give this team a boost right now, the way to do that is to put Correa at SS move Marwin to1B and sit Carter on the bench. I guarantee you that Carlos Correa can hit better than Chris Carter. Carter makes Matt Dominguez look good.

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      • You might get short term returns on Correa over Carter, but over 162 I suspect Carter evens it out. That’s a move with two major roster implications, however.

        I know Velasquez is hurt. What do you want to do this winter with him?

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      • I’m suspect that a career MLB .219 hitter is not going to even it out against Correa. Carter’s sample size is getting bigger, but it is not getting better. Last year pitchers were willing to gamble with Carter because the Astros were bad and he couldn’t win alone. This year they are pitching him low and away and he won’t adjust. He’s guessing and doing a terrible job of it. As long as he leans out at the outside pitches and is off balance the only pitches he is going to see inside are mistakes or pitches thrown at his ankles. He will probably turn it around, but turning it around for him means a .220 hitter with a 30% K rate.

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      • Devin, you can’t just compare stats when you talk about what a player brings to a team. Stats aside, Carlos Correa will absolutely ignite this team. He will change the complexion in ways that Carter can not possibly. Ever. His personality, his style are electric. You WANT him on that wall. You NEED him on that wall. He changes everything.

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      • I’m excited about Correa too, but want to see how he adjusts to some bad stretches before forcing him up to the big leagues. If you are not overestimating the boost from excitement, do you want that now, or in early August when it could help overcome the weariness from the hot days and large number of games behind them?

        Selfishly, I would favor an immediate callup to allow as much time for a ROY argument to be made…but that obviously should not be the main consideration.

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  3. What did McClendon say to his pitcher last night? “Son, I want you to throw Altuve a 92 MPH fastball right down the middle of the plate. He’s an average hitter and if you elevate it a little he will pop it up”.
    What Altuve was thinking while McClendon was talking to his pitcher: “My strike zone is now four feet high and four feet wide. If there is a fastball anywhere in that zone, I’m all over it”.
    “Look out, Julia, here comes the Gatorade!”
    Altuve would be the easiest player in baseball to douse with Gatorade. How high do you have to raise that jug? One Altuve high. Can we do this more often, please?
    Astros are #29 in batting productivity at the 1B position. Why? Because Marwin has played it enough to keep it from being #30.
    Matt Duffy is on an 0 for 14 streak in Fresno this week and Singleton 0 for his last 11. Both are in deep, two week long slumps. There’s no help at 1B there.
    In the aftermath of Altuve’s game winning hit, it’s easy to overlook Marwin’s double. The first baseman was playing on the line and still couldn’t get it and Marwin’s hustling slide kept him from getting thrown out. That was a really big play in this game.

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    • Some thoughts on all this “stuff” old pro
      – Mike Stanton on Root Sports asked the same question after the game – what did McLendon tell the pitcher? I have dinner reservations – throw a fastball anywhere near the plate to end it?
      – I would think Altuve would make a small Gatorade target – you might toss it right over his head
      – I never got a good angle on MarGo’s double but it looked foul to me – when you are winning all of this goes your way including MarGo barely making it to 2nd
      – It looked like the pitcher pitched around Rasmus to get to Altuve – insanity??
      – They said on the radio that this was Altuve’s first walk-off hit – which is tough for me to believe other than they normally don’t give him a lot to swing at in these situations.
      – Last year we would have lost this game in the 8th (when the M’s got a guy to 2nd with 0 outs) or the 9th (when the M’s got a guy to 3rd with one out). Clutch pitching by Qualls, Sipp and Neshek kept them tied.
      – Last April – Carter had 3 HR and 8 RBIs – .152 BA / .270 OBP / .599 OPS
      – This April – Carter has 2 HR and 6 RBIs – .160 BA / .267 OBP / .521 OPS
      – Maybe we should leave him in extended spring training during April from now on

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      • The fact that the umps didn’t even review Marwin’s hit or get asked to review it, and the Mariners didn’t even argue about it, leads me to believe that the ball somehow passed over the corner of the bag as it was curving toward foul territory and the ump down the line had a great look at it.
        If the league wants more offense, why are umps continually calling pitches below the knees a strike, and how come so many pitches that are four inches outside are being called strikes? Especially, outside pitches to lefty hitters that are four inches outside?

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      • It looked to me that the ump was not near the line when he called it – the 1B thought it was foul – of course that could have been him trying to justify how he could let a ball past him when he was standing like 1 foot off the foul line.

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    • It’s easy to overlook Gattis driving in two runs the hard way to get us to extra innings. That, folks, is my real hero of the game. Get wood on the ball and drive those guys in.

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      • I was thinking the same thing, Brian T. All outs are not equal. Gattis’ two ‘productive’ outs last night were HUGE!

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  4. I’m wondering who will be our 5th starter after the Deduno stop gap. I was assuming it would be Obie – but after giving up 7 runs in 2.2 innings I don’t know. I read about Peacock getting some kind of injection. Of the starters at Fresno – the only ones pitching fairly well are Jake Buchanan (on the 40 man) and Thomas Shirley (not on the 40 man).
    So maybe Obie will turn it around, maybe Deduno makes us forget the other guys or maybe Buchanan gets another shot.

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    • Maybe Ober tried not to throw the breaking stuff that caused his blister, and was instructed to just throw fastballs and get back into baseball. All the runs he gave up came in the first inning. He was on a 60 pitch limit and used most of it in the first.

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    • That is interesting to know – of course he has to throw breaking stuff some time…..but I was hopeful he could come back and give us decent if not good starts.

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  5. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it and to me it doesn’t look broke. Ok, maybe a couple of tweaks here and there but, I just as soon that we ride this wave. It sure has been a long time coming. As for July, buyers vs sellers, we’re not there yet but one comment. Don’t trade away the farm for a quick fix. The Randy Johnson deal comes to mind and although he did everything he was supposed to do, we didn’t get to the WS and he was a 3 month rental and look what we gave up. Hopefully, not again.

    Good organizations shouldn’t sacrifice their future players for the “quick fix”. Just my 2 cents worth. Also one thing the ‘Stros are doing is getting those timely hits. Sure makes a big difference in the W/L column. Keep up the good work.

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    • “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it and to me it doesn’t look broke.”
      ————————————————————————————–

      Touchet! Amen! Right on!

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    • Yes, the Astros gave up a ton for Randy Johnson but they were all in, Randy was absolutely electric, and bad luck to lose to a super hot Kevin Brown and the San Diego Padres in the playoffs.

      I am not deterred. Wonder how much it would take to pry away Cole Hamels from the Phillies?

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  6. Just because we were all wondering, Marisnick’s BABIP right now is an unsustainable .427. If it drops .100 to his career average, JFSF probably sees his BA drop .090 as well. But JFSF hitting .280 works for me.

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    • Whats impressive is that his K rate is about 8-9% lower than his career number. I’m not sure that is sustainable either, but if he can keep below 20% he should be fine.

      He is swinging out of the zone less than the last 2 years, at 32% so far, still a bad number but much better than 38%.

      It’s hard to make calls now, the sample size needs to stretch out to 40 games, by then he will have seen 800-1000 pitches, and we can see where the contact rates and swing rates are at, and we will know if its a mirage or he can be a major league CFer for the next 10 years. I’m not surprised by his Chris Johnson like sprint out of the gate though, like CJ he is a strong guy with some bat speed, so the BABIP isn’t surprising – afterall, when you hit it a little harder the ball finds it easier to get into that hole in the infield.

      If his K rate rises though a .100 point drop in BABIP will actually result in a .120 or so loss in batting average. His walk rates are better this year, but still needs a little improvement.

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  7. Another big hit by Marwin last night after swinging at a couple of balls out of the zone in the 8th when a walk would have loaded the bases with nobody out. He’s a grinder though and has been a real good utility guy. Interesting that after he turned his double into a close play at second, Villar was not sent in to run for him. I don’t think Hinch wanted to risk the possibility of an 11th inning with Villar at short. Anyway, Marwin has been a loyal subject, but he’s not going to make many big plays at short. He just can’t get to much. I think as the next few weeks go by, we’ll be clamoring more for Correa to get the call.

    Devin, I don’t think Carlos is going to have any bad stretches in the minors. He’s already too good. So he won’t be getting forced up to the majors at any point. He’ll hold his own from the start and grow from there.

    The rotation remains an area of concern right now. Maybe Sam will have a solid outing tonight. But wouldn’t it be nice to have Tropeano and Foltynewicz waiting in the wings? I think this team could be 15 and 7 without Conger and Gattis. And in deference to our stupendous (so far) center fielder, I won’t even mention Cosart and his success. Jake has made that deal a moot point at least for now.

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  8. I admit that I am a “hometown” fan. But some of these metrics just do not make any sense to me. Having watched the A’s outfield make three errors in one game. One was called a hit even though it landed in Fuld’s glove, JFSF has a 0.0 dwar. While Reddick and Canha have the same 0.0. And Fuld has a 0.1. Jake’s error was a gapper that the runner made to third (if memory serves me correct). Some of the numbers must have been made up by the Ice Dancing Judges.

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    • For now I am more than happy to keep JFSF our ‘little secret’. Let other teams think we have somebody human in CF. I’ll just keep enjoying the gasps and the stunned look of surprise when he does his ‘Good Hands’ thing all over shots over his head that opposing players and announcers never dreamed he could even catch up to, much less catch.

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      • That is exactly what I was thinking Devin – we have a ground ball centric staff and that does not lead to a lot of chances

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    • I need to dig into it, but my ignorant opinion from the last I looked is that games where the chances are low hurt their score in that metric.

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  9. Don’t look Ethel! It will not be Marwin Gonzalez playing SS tonight. Some other dude – one not to be compared to Carlos Correa – has been penciled in at 6 instead.

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    • OH. MY. GOD.——tell me Hinch didn’t just put the *IDIOT* at short tonight. Well Sam….I wish you all the luck, because the *IDIOT* will cost you a couple of runs tonight due to errors.

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      • Hinch did just put the wrong guy at shortstop and definitely put the wrong guy in the #9 spot in the batting order.
        If it aint broke, break it. Go figure!

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    • Heck, yes he is! I’d option his “caught looking butt” to Fresno right now if I could, and replace him with Tucker!
      Oh, wait… did I misread your question?

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    • Are you talking about as the 4th OF?
      Well Tucker might be better but they may want Tucker to play everyday.
      I’d like them to try out Tucker at 1B at AAA

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      • Couldn’t they package Carter, Villar, and Grossman in a trade for a box of milk chocolate candies? I’d jump up and down the first day screaming “We won that trade!!” Pass me one of those cherry crème chocolates, will ya, Dan.

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  12. Speed, good defense, good pitching. Wins ball games. I am seeing it with my naked eye. And, I may be too old fashioned, but the W/L column says this still works and I did not even need to turn the computer on. Go ‘Stros!

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  13. Gattis just launched a Crawford box 2 run dinger – basically wht they picked him up. It was out in a hurry.

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  14. And then Mr Khaki pants just jacked one out – he doesn’t seem to know what his BABIP is right now – the ball looks like the size of a basketball to him right now.

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    • You are living a charmed life when your closer gives up two bombs in the ninth and still gets the save.
      Thank you George Springer for finally swinging at and connecting with a curve ball. All night long Astros batters just stared at the curve like they had never seen one before.

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  17. The good news is *WOW *WOW* *WOW*!!! Eight in a row!
    Bad news is Moran has a non displaced fracture to his jaw 😦 😦
    injured it sliding head first back to second base.

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  18. Tonight Fresno got shut out on 2 hits. Duffy had a single and a BB, Tucker had a single and a BB and the rest of the team managed 1 walk and 11 K’s.
    Tucker drew his walk and then stole second base. Duffy then walked and Singleton and Santana both struck out to end the only threat of the night.
    Tucker also threw out a runner who tried to score from second on a single to LF with two outs. When Tucker did that the score was 0-0, so it meant something.
    Corpus Christi got beaten again tonight. 5-4. Correa had no hits but walked twice and stole three bases. Joe Sclafani got ejected by the home plate ump tonight. He was playing 3B for the injured Moran. Frisco’s winning run scored on a Jandel Gustave wild pitch.

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    • Fresno has lost 5 in a row [one of which was the to-be-expected result of Obey’s incomplete rehab], and have looked pretty awful doing it. Corpus’ streak of seeming invulnerability has been broken. Times like these are when we find out who are the leaders of the future and who are what I call the ‘bandwagon players’. Who will step up and be the grind-it-out, get-it-done, never-say-die guys every team needs?

      At Fresno I’m betting on Preston Tucker, Matt Duffy and Nolan Fontana to grind it out. I am hoping they’ll a little help from Singleton and Santana, but that will depend on whether those two are willing to work hard at baseball and teamwork or just want to be known for their flashy but very, very inconsistent power stroke. Fresno desperately needs a pitcher who can be a stopper – who will it be?

      At Corpus I’m betting on Carlos Correa, Tony Kemp, and Brandon Meredith. If Joe Sclafani is real – and I think he is – he is going to have to prove it by being the fourth horseman. Hopefully Appel and Devinski will be joined by a couple more pitchers in the Corpus stable as ‘stoppers’. Josh Hader, can you be one of them?

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    • There is a fine line between being talented and being successful. We will see soon which of the guys have the mental toughness and emotional make-up of a competitor or just the sass and promise of talent.

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  20. Fun fact
    ..if they play .500 ball the rest of the way, they’d have 85 wins (which is one more win than I predicted to start the season)

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