Free Blog Weekend: Odds, experience and your conversation

Welcome to our Chip tradition of Free Blog Weekend. There are some food for thought items below, but the blog belongs to you as any subject (Astros’ related) is open season.

 What are the odds?

Not that this blog proponent has ever been to Las Vegas and not that these specific bets were available at the beginning of the season, but after nine games what would be the odds that:

  • Jed Lowrie would be leading the team with three home runs? He had only six in 136 games in 2014.
  • Lowrie and Jake Marisnick would be leading the team with five RBIs?
  • Seven Astros would have home runs, but none of them would be named George Springer or Chris Carter? (And the other “big” bopper, Evan Gattis, got his Chantilly Lace first homer in the eighth inning of the ninth game).
  • The Astros’ hitters would be leading the majors in strikeouts (oops – that one you probably would have gotten even money on)?
  • The team would be next to last in runs scored in the AL, but 4-5 and only a ½ game out of first in the AL West?
  • Luke Gregerson would be sharing the saves lead with another reliever, but it would not be Chad Qualls, Pat Neshek, Will Harris or Tony Sipp? (It is Sam Deduno).

Experience may mean something

There was an interesting discussion yesterday about the failure, especially of young hitters, coming up and struggling with the Astros. Of course, you don’t know if some guys are going to be AAAA Brett Wallace types, who will never develop or guys who would develop if handled/coached the right way.

Age and experience factors are important when looking at the development of young players. Looking back at a typical 2014 in late April after Springer was brought up, you might have Jose Altuve, Dexter Fowler, Jason Castro, Springer, Marc Krauss, Carter, L.J. Hoes, Jonathan Villar and Matt Dominguez in the lineup. That lineup at that time averaged about 233 games of mlb experience or a little less than 1-1/2 seasons. If you drop out Altuve and Fowler, the other seven players had an average of 147 games in the majors, not even a full season. Having that little experience in the lineup was hurtful to the development of some of these players, especially when the only experienced players (Altuve, and Fowler) were grouped together towards the top of that lineup.

Earlier this week when the Astros got murdered 8-1, the starting hitting lineup (without Castro, Lowrie or Colby Rasmus) was just a tad over 26 years old. In addition, those nine guys averaged 279 games of MLB experience, or about 1 3/4 seasons apiece. Even some guys who are definitely not youngsters are relatively inexperienced. Gattis is 28, but has only played in 221 MLB games, Carter at 28, (407), Conger at 27 (254).

The result was the worst game the Astros have played this season.

The Oakland A’s, the Astros’ opponent that night, had inexperienced players like Mark Canha and Marcus Semien, but they had them sandwiched between much more experienced players like Sam Fuld, Ben Zobrist, Billy Butler and Josh Reddick.

The hope here is that players like Springer, Gattis, Marisnick and Grossman will benefit over time by having more experienced players like Altuve, Castro, Rasmus and Valbuena around them in the lineup.

Conversation Starters

  • Do you have any first impressions of new manager A.J. Hinch?
  • Either through the new TV deal or renewed interest, are you watching more of the Astros this season?
  • Is McHugh or Keuchel the ace of the staff? Who do you like better and why?
  • When Brett Oberholtzer is ready, who goes and who stays?

So what do you want to talk about today as the Astros start a three-game series with the Los Angeles/California/Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Angels (or something like that)?

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100 responses to “Free Blog Weekend: Odds, experience and your conversation”

  1. I Like Hinch! We should get buttons out for Astros’ fans!
    I live in God’s Country and, unfortunately, Astros aren’t available here. Enjoyed the series with Texas on FSSW and will watch anytime I can.
    At this point, it Kechugh or McKeuchugh. I’ll take either in a big game. If the Astros can find/add one more like them this year, it will be huge…then, Appel and others to follow.
    Obie will make his own place. I’m sorta hoping when he’s ready, the rotation is so good that it creates a Fields-like dilemma. Keuchel, McHugh and Feldman aren’t going anywhere, so he’d replace either Hernandez or Peacock…

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    • Do you think they would consider moving Feldman if they are happy with everything else? I’m not promoting that – just wondering if that is on the table or being saved for the trade deadline?

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      • Dan, not unless there was something more significant to replace him with. I look at the Astros’ rotation as having two groups of pitchers.

        Group one includes Keuchel, McHugh and Feldman. They’re solid, veteran, dependable for the most part. Are they #1s? Debatable, but more likely very, very strong #2s and #3s.

        The rest are in group 2: Hernandez, Peacock, Obie, Wojciechowski, Straily etc. They are interchangeable for the most part and can fill the #4 and #5 roles in the rotation.

        In my book, you can’t take anyone from group 2 to replace anyone in group 1 without losing some effectiveness or consistency. At least not today on April 17. So if you give up Feldman, you have to have a replacement either from outside or one of the group 2 guys has to develop like Keuchel and McHugh did. Or Luhnow has to get McLucky again on the waiver wire.

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      • I think that is a fair assessment Chip – I kind of break it down with Keuchel and McHugh as above Feldman and Feldman above the BOR masses. I personally think that Keuchel is the top guy and that McHugh is not that far behind. McHugh could only unseat Keuchel if he becomes more efficient and able to go deeper into games. The guy that can average 7 innings a start is going to beat out the guy who can go 6.3 or whatever, even if his K numbers are trailing.

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  2. My first impressions of Hinch are that he does not have a hair trigger mentality and that he does not think he is the most important person on the Houston side of the field.
    I am watching the Astros more because I now can actually get their games on my TV.
    I think Keuchel is the Ace of the staff because he has the ability to get batters out in all different ways, his stuff drives hitters crazy and he is truly a presence on the mound with his ability to hold runners and field his position better than anyone in baseball.
    I have no clue what happens to Oberholtzer when he is ready to come back. I do know that the middle and bottom of the rotation guys need to do a much better job of keeping the ball down.

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    • OP –
      I think that the Astros after all the changeouts in managers, hitting coaches, pitching coaches, GMs etc – need some quiet stability and hopefully Hinch will be that. I like that I have not heard him throwing anyone under the bus – just seems to be handling things calmly. Didn’t panic when they looked bad in the first two games of the A’s series, etc.
      I agree on Keuchel being the ace – we will see if ends up as a true #1 – but he is showing signs in a Tommy Glavine kind of way.
      How the front office handles the situation of getting people back from the DL when there is no obvious person to replace will be a fascinating thing to watch in the coming months.

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  3. Oh…and could the Cubs be any more obvious promoting Kris Bryant on the very first day they could and gain another year of control?

    Don’t get me wrong, all in favor of the business decision. If players can play all kind of “cards” because it’s “just a business”, no reason a team or organization can’t use the rules to its benefit.

    I might have waited until Monday or Tuesday though. Just saying.

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    • Makes you wonder if they were straight up front with the young man – this is what we are doing, this is when we are going to bring you up – it is just business.
      Those are the First Place Chicago Cubs – I’m surprised my keyboard did not burst into flames when I typed those words!

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      • Nope, they can’t say that publicly. Too much verbiage to be used against you by you-know-who. But, it couldn’t be more obvious.

        To Epstein’s defense, he apparently has never — never — had a rookie on an opening day roster, going back to his days in Boston. There was an article this week about young players on opening day rosters in the past and it seems to support Epstein’s decision.

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    • Mike Olt, their starting 3B, was diagnosed with a broken bone in his foot(?) yesterday. What more perfect timing could it be. I don’t blame the Cubs at all.
      One word describes how I feel about this situation: Boras!

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    • Chip – I’m not saying it would have happened, but I think your logic that clubs send top prospects for a publicity stop at each level of minors also contributes. It’s been a long time since ChiC had a prospect like Bryant, why not give their AAA fans a few more chances to see him. Recall last offseason’s movement of AAA franchises that has us out west. Milwaukee got caught with their pants down when Nashville switched with no notice as well.

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      • You don’t send them down because every day down costs Bryant money on a minor league salary. You can argue he got a big bonus, sure, but what about the ones that don’t? Bryant has done everything he could in the minors, dominated ST, and should have been the opening day third baseman, but wasn’t because the Cubs, like most teams in MLB nowadays, cares more about the bottom line and their personal profit over winning by putting the best players on the field when they deserve to be there.

        IMO the Astros are doing the same thing to Correa right now. Today he is the best SS in the entirety of the Astros system, and is a special kid that could handle ML pitching today. He isn’t Brett Wallace, he isn’t Singleton rushed through the system, he is Robin Yount, who debuted at SS at 19 for the Brewers. But hey, that’s just one mans opinion.

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  4. My impressions of the team so far are that Springer is completely starting over after his injury. He looks lost at the plate like he did his first month last year.
    Grossman, Carter and Villar are the exact same players that they were for the first half of last year.
    Rasmus is playing exactly like the player he has been in the past. Valbuena is trying too hard at the plate. I’m hoping he starts feeling more comfortable. The opposite field home run is the Valbuena we saw in Spring training.
    Jake Marisnick last season showed us three of the five tools: Speed, Glove, Arm. So far this season he has added a fourth tool, and that is the hit tool. If he can keep the fourth tool going, the fifth tool could start to show up because of his size.
    Let’s see if we can start Villar on the bench the next time Feldman pitches, ok?
    Will Astros fielders just not bother throwing to home plate if Conger is catching? Tyler Heineman, please, please be for real!
    DDJ has been the player you would have expected him to be so far. Batting .100, striking out at 30%, 1 error in 8 fielding chances and 1 stolen base.
    Astros minor leaguers won all five of their games last night. The combined record for the four teams after the first week of play is 23-8

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    • Both Springer and Carter look totally lost and totally over-pressing at this point. “George, the ball will go if you connect with it and guess what – you don’t have to swing like that guy in the movie ‘Signs’ – you are plenty strong.”
      I think if Feldman sees Villar at shortstop any time he is slated to pitch he may come down with a stomach virus.
      The minor league teams are loaded and we hope that keeps floating to the top.

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  5. Joe Sclafani seems like he will eventually fit well into that Oakland lineup, with his current .333, .444, .533, .978 batting line and no errors in the field. Man, I wish he was in the Astros organization! Oh, wait……….

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    • It is only a guess, but there is probably some statistic that no one whose last name starts in “SCL” ever made it to the majors and so the wonks working for Luhnow don’t give him a shot.

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      • I guess it’s old timey stupid stuff, but one of the ways I’ve seen to get a bunch of good hitting players in the lineup is to gather a bunch of good hitters and put them in your lineup.
        I’m sure some really smart person would tell me it’s a lot more complicated than that.

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      • Op – you are just craaaaazy! I guess the argument always is – sure he hits good at every minor league level and gets on base and stings the ball when he does swing – but that does not mean he can hit at the mlb level.
        Of course looking around the league and at our team the current way of choosing hitters is apparently failing.

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      • I sure wish at least one cyber-nerd would look turn it the other way and check out the stats on guys with the first name ‘Joe’. Just for the Astros we’ve had some pretty good Joes – Morgan, Niekro, and Sambito for a start.

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      • Yes, I’m crazy. So you draft a guy and two years later he hits .349 at AAA. Then, you say, well that’s a small sample. Let’s send him to AFL and see what he does. He hit’s .378 there, so you say let’s see how he does in the spring. He hits .364 in limited Spring Training ABs, so you say lets send him to AAA and put him on the bench. He’s hitting .333 there so you say let’s not play him because he can only play five positions.
        Besides, we got a ton of .150 power hitters totally blocking him.

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      • old pro – Let’s get this straight – we can not use more than one player with a BA over .300 and an OBP approaching .400. The Cray computers at head quarters would crash with those big numbers….

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      • Well that would be assuming he could have a .400 in the majors.

        I believe he would hit, probably around the same clip, maybe slightly lower, than he does now. Even at .290 he is a super utility playing 3-4 times a week.

        I don’t think he will post the same OBP though because he has no power, and major league pitchers, unlike minor league pitchers, have excellent command of multiple pitches, and tend to challenge guys with no power. A no command guy that is stuck in minor league purgatory sometimes can’t throw a strike even on purpose with more than one pitch, giving a guy with a good eye, like Joe, or Kemp, or Fontana, plenty of opportunities to draw walks.

        But I agree, the only way to find out is call him up now. I could see him easily replacing Villar on the roster, and probably making us a better team for it.

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  6. What little I’ve “seen” of Hinch, I really like him. He is steady, and allows his pitchers to get outta of a jam, before he yanks them from the game…..unlike Porter. My own
    opinion is Peacock get’s DFA’d when Oberholtzer comes back. For the first time in
    years, we have a few guys who could step in if one of the first three pitchers goes down. I can’t see the games, because Suddenlink won’t buy into Root sports, so I’ll be going to my favorite watering hole tonight to watch them! From now on out, Hinch should put his best starting nine on the field every game….AND I think Luhnow is still looking at getting another starting pitcher.

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    • Good point Becky on letting his pitchers get out of jams – I thought that was one of Dierker’s strong points and I think it is a great thing to develop in pitchers – some self reliance on getting out of jams.
      Peacock could get DFA’d I guess – many different options – most of them not that tasteful.
      You must think he is pursuing a top of the rotation type pitcher, because what is the point of adding another 4/5 – who do you think he is chasing?

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      • Becky, on your point, I remember watching Mills when the FIRST runner would get on base, he would have two pitchers warming up in the bullpen. How much confidence would a pitcher think his manager has in his ability – if he warms up a pitcher or two anytime a runner gets on base. Why teach a pitcher to pitch from the stretch if he is out of the game on his first mistake.

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  7. If you put a young guy into a solid lineup, there is far less pressure on him to produce. And when that lineup around you is already producing, you’ll see better pitches, there will be guys on base, creating more holes, negating most shifts. It can also be argued that hitting is contagious. As an example, what better place than Detroit for JD to reinvent himself? Our young hitters have not had the luxury of joining a bunch of hitting talent already in place.

    I certainly have no problems with Hinch after nine games. I don’t think he should get any more blame for our 2, 4 and 5 guys than credit for what Lowrie and Marisnick have done to date. By the way, just as we should expect improvement from the middle of the order, we should not be expecting so much production from Lowrie and Marisnick long term. But boy, as OP points out, Marisnick has tools. I love to see guys legging out triples.

    Keuchel is easily my number 1. Not many guys in the league in this day and age can go out and throw a complete game. As we saw the other night, McHugh has the ability to strike people out, which is generally going to run up a pitch count. I’ll take them both though.

    What if Hernandez and Peacock remain effective? Do we have to have a second lefty in the rotation? I like Oberholtzer, but he’s really just another 4-5 starter. And if someone else is going well, I don’t mess with it. This is one of those calls that Hinch might not get to make.

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    • When you look at Marisnick you see a pretty impressive physical presence – Legging out the triple, cutting balls off in the gap, impressive arm, big enough that he could be a power guys some time – fun to watch.
      It is so bizarre that Keuchel and McHugh are getting similar results (2 runs allowed each in their two starts) by way of such different paths. Keuchel’s K/BB ratio is bad – 1.17, while McHugh’s is brilliant 7.50. McHugh gives up a fair amount of hits/9 IP (8.5) while Keuchel is way low (5.8). They both have similar WHIPS and ERAs – Keuchel – 1.071 and 1.29 vs. McH’s 1.114 and 1.54.
      Hell yeah we will take them both – love to watch them both pitch.

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  8. I don’t think Peacock would have to be DFAd to activate Obie. Still has an option and could be sent to Fresno. And I am trying really hard NOT to have any first impressions yet. But the likelihood of me making it through April without throwing a 95 MPH remote control aren’t looking too good. Okay, I lied. I can’t throw anything 95 MPH except a fit.

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    • Nance –
      1) Thanks for the info on Peacock – I think we often assume a guy who has been up a few times like Peacock is out of them. (By the way – is there a good resource for figuring that out?)
      2) Don’t worry about the velocity – stick with control. It is very important that you throw the remote in such a way that you only hurt it and not your flat screen TV.

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  9. Just FYI since Im in CO and have dish not Direct. I have gotten MLB TV and watched every Astro game live or taped for later, the last 3 years, and a lot off their Minor games available also for a whopping $159 a year,

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    • That sounds like a darn good deal Kevin…
      Are you a former Houstonian or someone who just fell in love with the Astros?

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      • No My folks moved to Woodland in 1977, became season ticket holders for the Astros and Oilers, so tagged along ever since. I was actually livinig in the Woodlands 2000-2009 and really miss MM. I will be at Coors field in June for 2 games in full Astro attire(-;

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      • They are likely to zero in on you dressed like that in the crowd … maybe you could wear a “Go to Chipalatta.com” sign…..

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  10. Minor league tidbits.
    *Kyle Westwood was the back end tandem for Appel in Appel’s first start. Westwood is starting tonight for CC. Don’t know if he has a tandem partner.
    *Fresno heads out on the road to play Las Vegas, whom they split four games with on opening weekend. Seems like with 16 teams in the PCL the scheduler could do a little better job spreading things around. Luis Cruz looks to improve on his first start.
    *Evan Grills got shelled in his first start last week for Lancaster and was followed on the mound by Gonzalo Sanudo. Grills is starting again tonight, so that is not your typical tandem either. Last night JA Reed and Jacob Nottingham put an end to Lancaster’s no home run season. Reed and Brett Phillips both broke out of their hitting slumps with multiple hit and RBI games.
    Quad Cities has been the quiet giant so far this season with a 7-1 record. Former Aggie star pitcher Daniel Mengden has that one loss and plans to make up for it tonight in his start.
    The Hooks crowd was 5,515 last night in a stadium with 5,050 fixed seats. They won 8-0. Must have been a great home opening night for them.

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  14. And, the lineup tonight for your Hoooouuuuston Astros! And, in case you’re keeping count, it’s the ninth different lineup in 10 games.

    * Altuve 2B.
    * Springer RF.
    * Lowrie SS.
    * Valbuena 3B.
    * Gattis DH.
    * Castro C.
    * Carter 1B.
    * Rasmus LF.
    * Marisnick CF.

    Mr. Hernandez will take the mound.

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    • Is this the first time that neither Gattis nor Carter is batting cleanup? How long until Gattis and Carter are batting 8th and 9th….
      Do you think it would be better to flip Lowrie and Springer or do you think Lowrie gives Springer protection?

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      • No, Valbuena hit cleanup once in the Texas series. He has been voted Most Likely to be Moved in the Order. He’s hit in four different spots: third, fourth, fifth and sixth.

        * Gattis will come out of the funk before Carter.
        * I like that Hinch is steady with Altuve-Springer-Lowrie. I wouldn’t mind if he flipped Springer/Lowrie, but there is something to be said for stability. Springer is more likely to steal a base and is faster than Lowrie, so go with it…

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      • Yeah – Gattis was hitting the ball in buzzard’s luck in the A’s series – always the first sign of coming out of the slump.
        Interesting on how they use Valbuena.
        Good analysis on the top three….

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    • I am glad to see they finally moved Karter down in the lineup. Right now he is a rally killer, but there haven’t been that many rallies for him to kill.

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      • They have been getting a few more guys on lately – maybe they will start putting up some crooked numbers on the scoreboard.

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    • this may be the lineup that breaks loose. R, R, L, L, R, L, R, L, R. or maybe thats salsa dance steps. i hope its the former.

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  16. It says that Peacock is being put on the DL with an intercostal strain. I thought the intercostal was that waterway that ran inside the barrier islands…..

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    • OH LORD………..those hurt, *BIG* time! I’ve had one in my right ribcage, took me a month to get better. What good news, though…….Wojo is baaaaack!!

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    • I hope Wojo from his relief stint is back and not Wojo from his starting stint – but hey I am excited too because I think he has more upside than other potential pitchers in that spot

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  17. Chip, I live on the other side of the Sabine from you. So we have high speed internet. I was watching MLBTV on my laptop. Decided to try a one Time $50 ROKU fix. It works. So I can watch the games of everything Live except the Astros (and Rangers) on my TV. But an hour or so after the game, I watch the Astros and can fast forward the commercials and time outs. (Yes there is Direct TV here but all I want is the Astros game. That calculates to about $65 a month on their cheapest package and I will have to have a booster due to shooting through the trees or cut down 3-4 huge trees or run the cable to the road which is about 120 yards and requires another booster – per the installer)

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  18. On a separate note, I was watching the White Sox game the other day and Hawk Harrelson went all “Hawk Harrelson” about the shifts and stats etc. He was ranting that how can a guy sitting at home on a computer determine if a guy that gets two bloop hits needs to start the next game when another hits 4 to the warning track is in a slump. His deal was if you are not at the game – you don’t know nothing. The humor is lost in my post but it was enjoyable.

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  19. Marisnick says that one of the big differences for him this season so far is not having to think about his mechanics. He worked so hard on his swing in the offseason that it is natural and he now can focus on the ball.
    One other thing that may be helping him a tad is the kinds of pitches he is seeing. After all, every time Marisnick strolls to the plate, the American League Batting Champion is on deck. That cant hurt.

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  20. Well……………….could have told you Albert Trout was gonna be trouble this year.
    Man…..that three run homerun just killed us tonight.

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  21. By the way……I thought Hernandez was pretty good tonight, and made some good pitches…but he looked totally spent by the 5th. inning. Maybe it’s just the beginning of the season, and he hasn’t gotten his “baseball” legs on yet. Getting bases loaded no outs, and getting one measly run, ain’t gonna cut it….visions of the 2013 Astros danced in my brain.

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  22. I am going to give Marisnick a pass since he has been so good this year, but what was he thinking on that Springer line drive to left? That cost the Astros a run.

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    • He has had no experience this year being knocked in when in scoring position. He was probably suffering from shock that someone actually hit the ball, so he froze. Perhaps they need to see some video of other teams scoring from third base, so that they can become familiar with the process, in case it ever happens to them again.

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  24. Happy birthday to Mr. Chip Bailey. I hope you have a blessed day and though we should be giving you gifts I appreciate this gift of the Chipalatta.com to all of us.

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  25. After James Hoyt gave up 5 ninth inning runs on Wednesday, Tony D ran him right back out there on Thursday and Friday nights for Hoyt to get the saves, which he did.
    Fresno beat Las Vegas last night, 11-10, on back to back homers by Aplin and Stassi. Dinglerton also had a homer.

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  26. Basic rule for the Astros for the rest of the year: Do not let Mike Trout beat you. If men are on base when he comes up, pitch around him. Walk him if you must, but do not pitch to him with men on base. He is batting over .100 points higher than anyone else on the Angels’ team. He has the Angels’ only OPS over 1.00. He has their team lead in HRs and RBIs. Do not let him beat you. If you are to lose to this team, make somebody else beat you.

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  27. If I were Hinch I would sit Carter for the next two games and let him try to find himself on the road trip. The only way Porter found to make Carter come around was to sit him, and Carter has always hit better for Houston on the road. Put Marwin at first base. He looked pretty good there when I saw him this past week and his bat is certainly a lot better than Carter’s. What did I see in looking at Carters stats something like a -34 OPS+?
    $4.18 million for this? Do we have to wait until the team is 20 games under .500 to do something about it, like last year?

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