2015 Astros’ projections: Stats, winners and leaders

2015 is here. Only 186 days ago, the Astros had named their newest manager, Jon Singleton and Jonathan Villar were still starters, Houston was wrapping up a 19-game improvement over 2013, and — unbeknownst to most — Jeff Luhnow was dusting off The Plan and breaking out some pencils to make a few adjustments.

Now, with one huge game under its belt, Houston has put a indelible stamp on the beginning of a new year and perhaps new era with a 2-0 shutout in the season opener. Most everything went right, except the plan worked backward. It was pitching and defense — and not the big boppers — that left the mark. It was a small-ball approach more reminiscent of those ’86 Astros than of the home run-heavy team fans had been prepared for.

What’s ahead after the Astros wined and dined fans and a national audience with that candle lit dinner with the moon roof open? Chip, Dan and Brian are here with some basic predictions on this off day. Feel free to jump in as there is only one rule today: If you take issue with any of their predictions, you must put your own predictions forward.

Enjoy…your Houston Astros are in first place!

Chip Dan Brian
Astros wins in ’15 85 84 84
AL West Winner Seattle Oakland Los Anaheim
Astros’ finish Third Tie-Third Third
Most Wins/pitcher 15/Keuchel 16/McHugh 15/ Keuchel, McHugh
Gregerson saves 34 31 33
Most HRs Springer Springer  42 Springer
Most RBI Carter Springer  93 Springer
Surprise player Valbuena Lowrie Lowrie
Comeback player Feldman/Villar Castro Castro
MVP Springer Springer Springer
Altuve over/under BA .334 .330 .331
# players with 150+ Ks 5 4 4 (Rasmus is injured)
# players with 25 HRs 3 3 3
Most likely to be traded at deadline Oberholtzer Feldman Rasmus (if not injured)
Most likely to bomb by deadline Rasmus Hernandez Hernandez
Best Astros’ Rookie Wojciechowski Wojo Wojo
Trade deadline: Buyer or seller? Buyer Buyer Seller, barely
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54 responses to “2015 Astros’ projections: Stats, winners and leaders”

  2. You three are all crazy. But hey, I actually LOVE crazy.

    Win total: 80
    Division winner: Seattle
    Stro’s finish: fourth
    Most wins: Keuchel – 13
    The kilt-wearer’s saves: 26
    Dinger Donor – Springer 35
    RBI Grinder – Springer 91
    Happy Birthday to me – Sclafani
    comeback, breaker 19 – Peacock
    Value Buster – Altuve
    ‘Tuve’s BA over/under – .353/.315
    Players with 150+ Ks – 5 [Carter, Castro, Springer, Gattis, Rasmus]
    Players w/ 25+ dingers – 3 [Carter, Springer, Gattis]
    Fish or cut bait – Feldman/Carter/Grossman/Gonzalez
    I.E.D. in the road – R. Hernandez
    R.O.Y – Sclafani
    @ deadline – neither borrowers nor lenders be – only sell very high, only buy very low

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  3. Astros wins-84
    AL West winner-Mariners
    Astros finish-third
    Most wins Keuchel -17
    Gregerson saves-17
    Most HRs- Carter 34
    Most rbi’s- Springer-90
    Surprise player- Rasmus
    Comeback player- Rasmus
    MVP-Keuchel
    Altuve over/ under- .342/.327
    Players with 150 Ks- Springer Carter Gattis
    Players w/ 25 HRs- Springer Carter Gattis
    Most likely to be traded at deadline- Rasmus
    Most likely to bomb by deadline-Wojo
    Best Astro’s rookie-Wojo
    Trade deadline buyer/seller- Both

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    • I hope Gregerson blows away that saves number – do you think he will falter or they will give save opportunities to others? I mean Qualls had 19 last season…

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      • Dan, Hinch named Gregerson his closer. As long as he delivers, no need to go in another direction, except on a rare day when Gregerson may not be available. Gregerson has the stuff and for some reason, I think Hinch will be decisive and support his players…and his choices. That’s just me…

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      • I agree Chip – I was just wondering what op was thinking to limit him to 17 saves. Is it injury or replacement you know – because otherwise I think he will be given plenty of opportunites to better that.

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  4. ok huey, dewey and louie (and i say that with nostalgic affection) its hard to argue with your predictions, but ill try. keuchel flirts with 20 wins. players with 25 homers carter, springer, gattis AND rasmus (although he gets his 25th with another team) with valbueno making a run at it but falling short. surprise player – marisnick. great job and this post guys. it really was hard to find alternate answers.

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    • ps. i think conger has a big positive effect with the pitching staff so ill call him the surprise player. GREAT GAME last night.

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    • Not sure if I should take the “huey, dewey and louie” as a compliment or be offended. Nonetheless, I believe it’s interesting that many predict Rasmus will have a career year and will be traded. If the Astros are having a decent season in late June/early July, can’t see Rasmus going away…especially if he is having a decent season. He’s Luhnow’s boy, twice over now. I realize he’s on a one year deal, but at 27, I wonder if Luhnow wouldn’t be inclined to add to that if he makes the comeback that most also believe will happen.

      So…here’s the question: What has to happen to make Rasmus expendable? In other words, who pushes him off the island? Grossman? Singleton? Santana? Someone else?

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      • I’ll say Preston Tucker is the most likely to bump Rasmus (plus a poor 1st half of the season by some combination of Rasmus and the Astros).

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      • just a whimsical off the cuff remark chip, certainly no offense meant. i enjoy the blog and respect all the work you guys put into it.
        the rasmus thing i think could shake out like this, singleton (finally) gets his act together and pushes his way back into the lineup, that pushes gattis to left on a majority of his games, leaving rasmus with less playing time and a trade candidate who brings us a piece we are lacking at the time. another BP arm perhaps or shore up a position that is thin due to injury.

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      • Being a Disney-phile – I actually like the mischievous nephews of Donald who know how to get his goat. It is kind of like Chip, Dan and Brian writing to get bopert’s goat.

        Of course maybe we could be Chip and Dale (Dan) with our chipmunk cousin – Brian.

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      • My thinking on Rasmus. Luhnow is the guy who came out and actually said that Rasmus has a chance to use his time in Houston as a springboard to a multiyear deal somewhere. Luhnow said that.
        I believe Rasmus is really going to like Houston, but Luhnow is the guy who dealt with Rasmus and he has the idea of what Rasmus wants for a long term deal. Are the Astros going to offer Rasmus a long term deal? If Rasmus has a good first half, his value will never be higher than at the trade deadline. Tucker and Kemp are waiting in the wings, both can play LF, both will be Major league minimum for years.
        If they wait till the end of the season, they will have to extend him, tag him($15million) or just let him walk.
        Bottom line: If Rasmus shines, the Astros are going to get something(things) good for him from someone at the deadline. If Tucker is hitting over .300 at AAA he’s a LH bat who you can plug in LF and bat him in the #8 slot at one sixteenth of the salary and the Astros pick up good prospects for Rasmus.
        The trade deadline is when you pick up good players for 2016 and beyond. by giving up Colby to a team that thinks he is their key to the playoffs because their CF/RF/LF is on the DL. They fog out the future because the present makes them weak.
        It makes sense to me, because 2016 and beyond has been the plan all along. . But that’s just me.

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      • i agree OP. he is set up to be traded at the deadline IF he is having a good year. he brings prospects or a player to fill a hole due to injury or ineffectiveness at the time and you wave bye to that 8 million salary. lets hope thats what happens. although it wouldn’t hurt my feelings if chip is right and he is having such a good year you don’t wanna let him go.

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      • OP, you’re right of course. Taking a deeper look, Luhnow will have $$$ to work with in the off season, but, unfortunately, a lot of those $$$ will be used for arbitration-eligible players he’ll want to keep (e.g. Gattis, Keuchel, Fields, maybe Valbuena, Carter, Castro).

        One thought not mentioned yet: Rasmus’ future may be determined in part on how well Marisnick plays in the first three months. If Marisnick is the one who bombs (he won’t bomb defensively), it could change the perspective. If you ultimately have Springer, Marisnick and Kemp/Tucker in the OF, it means an OF consisting of only a few years collectively in the majors. Very young..

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  5. Brian, did you pick the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, formerly the state of California, simply to make the joke? Personally, I think Seattle flounders and finishes third behind LA and whichever of Houston and Oakland can get above 83 wins.

    Chip, my remark on TOR pitches on the last post was along the lines of what if we’d bought one of those guys for $25 million a year instead of getting the bullpen guys, Rasmus, Valbuena, and Lowrie. I don’t think any add enough regular season wins above the guys in our rotation to be worth it. If we had unlimited funds like LA/Boston, it would be a different story…

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  6. Alex Presley placed on outright waivers this morning. Three possible outcomes:
    Someone claims him and he goes to them and they pay that salary.
    No one claims him and he goes to our minors. We pay that salary.
    No one claims him and he chooses FA. No one pays that salary.

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    • I’m guessing Oakland or Seattle takes a flyer on him. Although, if they weren’t able to work out a trade, then teams may wait until he’s a FA and pick him up then…

      Of course, he can keep his $1 million salary if he chooses Fresno…and that does provide another option for Luhnow…maybe not a bad deal all in all…

      Or maybe San Diego will pick him up, then trade him to Atlanta, who will DFA him again.

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  7. another bold prediction, increased revenue leads to increased spending. we are making progress there as well.
    The Astros’ first regular-season game telecast on Root Sports Southwest, which made the games available to DirecTV and AT&T U-verse customers for the first time since 2012, paid immediate audience dividends Monday.

    Houston’s opening win over the Indians produced a combined 4.1 Nielsen rating for an average audience of more than 94,000 of the Houston area’s 2.3 million television households. That included a 2.1 rating on Root Sports Southwest and a 2.0 rating on ESPN, which aired the game nationally.

    Astros games in 2014 averaged a 0.35 rating (about 8,000 households) on Comcast SportsNet Houston, which was purchased out of bankruptcy last fall by AT&T and DirecTV and relaunched as Root Sports Southwest.

    DirecTV and AT&T U-verse, which did not subscribe to CSN Houston, boosted the new channel’s distribution by more than 600,000 households in the Houston area and more than four million over a five-state area. The channel still is not available from Dish Network, Suddenlink, Charter, Grande Communications or Time Warner Cable, among others.

    Three Astros games in 2013-14 averaged a 0.0 Nielsen rating as CSN Houston struggled to gain distribution.

    per the spit place

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    • Comcast/Xfinity are carrying the Astros. I’m switching this week, to Xfinity. I’m sick and tired of “trying” to listen to the games, when 790am goes dark after 7:30P.M.

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  8. Tail end but I’ll answer before I see anyone elses goes –

    Wins – 78
    West – LAA
    Finish – 4th
    Wins – 13/Keuchel
    Gregerson saves – 26
    Most HR – Springer
    RBI – Springer
    surprise player – Valbuena
    comeback player – not really
    MVP – Springer
    Altuve over/under – .338
    how many over 150 – given that we won’t get 140+ games from Gattis, Rasmus, Marisnick, Castro, or Valbuena – I’ll go 2 only
    25 homer club – 2 Carter and Springer
    Most likely traded – I don’t know they will move anyone, but if Rasmus is even decent and we are more than 5 games out, he is probably gone
    Bomb by deadline – Rasmus, though I wouldn’t be suprised by Feldman or Marisnick
    Best rookie – Can’t mince picking Wojo
    Deadline – kinda just there, stagnant

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    • That is remarkable op. I remember Rasmus making a very good play out in LF and I was not able to ermember any by Springer or Marisnick…. and now I know why.

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    • So after one game the defensive metrics say that JFSF and Springer are the worst two outfielders in baseball then?

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      • Even further advanced stats tells us that batters are afraid to even hit the ball to them. Fearmetrics!

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  10. 78 wins
    Angels
    4th place
    Keuchel, 16, he’s the real deal.
    Gregerson, 30
    Springer 40
    Springer 100
    Surprise? Valbuena.
    Comeback? Castro, but he’ll still have an unremarkable season.
    MVP Springer, Keuchel
    150 K’s, 4 guys
    25 homers, 3 guys
    Feldman goes, Gattis might go.
    Bomb? Hernandez, maybe Gattis too.
    Rookie? Sclafani, but that would mean several injuries, so I’m not hoping for it.
    Deadline, sell.

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  11. After waiting for almost a week to find out why the Astros didn’t have a player listed as a SS on their AAA roster, Jayne Hansen says that Nolan Fontana has been promoted to Fresno. Now, please don’t be upset w/me. Mighty Joe Sclafani was lister on the roster as a 3B. Fontana, Dominguez and Torreyes might push Sclafani to a utility guy, which I abhor!
    Jayne also is reporting what I read yesterday, that Mrs. Weiland has tweeted that the Weilands are moving on to the next chapter in their lives.
    All of this has me feeling lost, marooned on an Island of small crabs. I wonder if Jeff said: Kyle, I got nothin’ for ya”, just like on Survivor. I wonder if Kyle even knows he’s been voted off. There are no phones on that island.

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  12. Carlos Carrasco, who pitches for Cleveland tomorrow, signed a four year extension today. In the final two months of last season, Carrasco was almost unhittable. Taken from the bullpen he exploded as a starter and that is the fulfillment of a guy who always showed great stuff but no command. He matched Kluber in his last eight starts and features an upper nineties fastball, a terrific slider and a changeup.
    Anxious to see how our RH power hitters tackle him.

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    • There’s an extended discussion on Carrasco in the baseball preview issue of Sports Illustrated. When he returned as a starter the Indians told him to pitch like a reliever i.e., throw as hard as he can as long as he can. That meant 5-6 innings per start but effective while he was in there.

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  14. Thought I should jump in with a few of my predictions. The Astros will play 162 gams and win some of them. AL West winner will be one of five teams. The Astros will finish in Arizona. Keuchel will have at least one win. Dang, I have got to quit watching those politicians on C-SPAN.

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  16. So, knowing what the experts know now, after opening day is over, I wonder where Dallas Keuchel would be rated among the thirty starting pitchers?

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