Astros’ Roster: Today vs. one year ago

Sometimes when we think of this year’s Houston Astros’ team as it readies itself for the 2015 season we think of improvement as what happened since they last played in September 2014. The team has certainly improved during the off-season, but this post will look at where they are now vs. the first week of 2014.

Looking back at the box scores from the first 10 games of 2014, it is impossible to not see vast improvement in the likely roster that will leave Florida and head to Houston as outlined in Chip’s post on Sunday.

Sunday ramblings: The right decision for Astros’ roster

Here is a quick thumbnail discussion of the various positions in the first 10 games of 2014 vs. 2015:

First Base. Jesus Guzman and Marc Krauss shared first sacker duties and the thought was that Guzman would shine once removed from the pitcher’s park at Petco. Oops!  Guzman (.520 OPS) and Krauss (.601 OPS) were very bad, and it will be in better hands with some combo of Chris Carter, Evan Gattis and Marwin Gonzales now that Jon Singleton has been sent down. Big upgrade offensively.

Advantage: 2015

Second Base. This was Jose Altuve, but remember it was basically Altuve on probation. His 2013 season was a disappointment and there were as many people thinking he would play himself into a trade as he would improve in 2014. No one was saying he would go nuts and win the batting title. While the same player is manning the spot this season, there is complete confidence that a great player is manning it this season unlike where we were opening day last season.

Advantage: Tie

Shortstop. Sorry Becky, but Jonathan Villar was the starting SS coming out of spring training last season. Even coming off a bit of a down year, there is no doubt that Jed Lowrie (career .741 OPS) is an upgrade over Villar.

Advantage: 2015

Third Base. There were 77 AL players with the minimum 502 ABs to be considered “qualifiers” for statistical comparisons. Matt Dominguez was 77th in OPS (.586) and OBP (.256). He was 76th in BA (.215) and SLG (.330). Almost anyone with a pulse should be better and Luis Valbuena (.776 OPS) has one heck of a better pulse than Matt Dominguez – another upgrade.

Advantage: 2015

Catcher. Jason Castro was the starting catcher last season and is again. The hope is that his true sea level as a hitter is somewhere between his excellent 2013 (.276 BA/.350 OBP/.835 OPS) and his poor 2014 (.222 BA/.286 OBP/.651 OPS).

Advantage: Tie

Designated Hitter. It is hard to say who was the DH starting last season as four different players (Carter, Dominguez, Castro, Krauss) started at DH in the first 10 games of the season. But just for arguments’ sake let’s say it was Carter last season and Evan Gattis this season. Frankly if you look at Gattis’ 162 game average (33 HR/89 RBI/.791 OPS) vs. Carter’s 162 game average (35 HR/88 RBI/.772 OPS) these guys are cut from the same cloth.

Advantage: Tie

Outfield. Last year’s outfield at opening day would best be called out as Dexter Fowler (CF) Robbie Grossman (LF) with L.J. Hoes and Alex Presley (RF) though other folks like Guzman and Krauss also saw time in the outfield. The best guess this season is that the opening day OF is Jake Marisnick (CF), George Springer (RF), Colby Rasmus and Grossman (LF). Fowler leaving is a loss, but with his injury time off, not a crippling one. Just having Springer in there every day makes the new outfield better. There certainly could be a bomb out by Marisnick, Grossman and/or Rasmus, but there is no more chance of that than there was last season with Grossman, Hoes and Presley. Springer is a game changer.

Advantage: 2015

Starting Rotation. The 2014 opening week rotation was Scott Feldman, Jarred Cosart, Brett Oberholtzer, Lucas Harrell and the fifth starter was …. Dallas Keuchel. The likely five-man rotation in the beginning of 2015 is Keuchel, Feldman, Collin McHugh, Asher Wojciechowski (with Brett Oberholtzer on the DL) and Roberto Hernandez. Last season Harrell and Keuchel were both coming off poor 2013 performances, while Cosart and Oberholtzer had pitched well in 10 game debuts. There is a lot more expected this season and a lot more fear that Feldman, Keuchel and McHugh were a mirage and that some back slide is bound to happen. But this is a better rotation….

Advantage: 2015

Bullpen. The seven-man bullpen starting 2014 was Chad Qualls, Matt Albers, Josh Fields, Josh Zeid, Jerome Williams, Anthony Bass, and Kevin Chapman. The ‘pen for 2015 looks like Qualls, Will Harris (with Fields on the DL), Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek, Tony Sipp, Sam Deduno and Joe Thatcher. Even if Albers had stayed healthy, that bullpen was nowhere as deep as this season’s bullpen.

Advantage: 2015

Bench. The normal bench last season would have been Carlos Corporan, Marwin Gonzalez, Marc Krauss and L.J. Hoes. This season it will be Hank Conger, Gonzalez, Villar and Grossman. I like this version better, but only a bit.

Slight Advantage: 2015

Comparing the team likely starting 2015 with the one that started 2014, one would be hard pressed to say any particular area from last season is superior to 2015.

Questions:

1. Is there any area (or position) where you would argue the team started off with a stronger contingent in 2014 than 2015?

2. Which area (or position) is the most likely to improve in 2015 over 2014?

3. Which area (or position) is the most likely to regress in 2015 vs. 2014?

4. Not counting Fields or Peacock who could be on the DL to start 2015, there are 12 players who will not be on the opening day roster this year that were on the opening day roster last season  (Guzman, Krauss, Dominguez, Corporan, Fowler, Hoes, Chapman, Albers. Williams, Bass and Zeid). How many do you think that are on this year’s opening roster will not be on next year’s opening day roster?

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70 responses to “Astros’ Roster: Today vs. one year ago”

  2. * Which area (or position) is the most likely to improve in 2015 over 2014? *

    Offensively, the corner infield positions should contribute substantially more. Defensively [unless Gattis or Carter has to don the glove] the outfield should be really, really good.
    And the bullpen * should * totally make us forget the late innings nightmares of 2013 and 2014.

    * * Which area (or position) is the most likely to regress in 2015 vs. 2014? * *

    I have a few concerns about the overall quality of starting pitching. A little regression from Keuchel, McHugh, and Feldman [particularly the latter] is to be expected.

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    • Mr. Bill – I will steal your line – because I believe it – I can’t argue with any of that.
      1B and 3B were huge negatives – especially when you look at OPS which is a very telling stat and I expect them both to be far different. OF should be solidly improved.
      The bullpen just has to be better (finally) this season. The starting rotation made the most improvement in 2014, which sets it up for some fall back.

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  3. Question #1. No, I don’t see any area that will be weaker in 2015 than it was in 2014.
    Question #2. It is going to be reall close between the bullpen and the outfield over what will be most improved. I’ll go with the outfield because there are two ways for the outfield to improve.
    I guess the area that is most likely to regress is the starting pitching because of the injuries and the way the TOR finished up last year.
    I think there will be eight roster changes next season, One outfielder, three infielders, and four pitchers.

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    • Nicely done oldpro – a few followup questions on your last sentence.
      – On the OF and 3 IF who are you thinking? Starters? Bench? Rasmus, Villar, Carter, and MarGO?
      – The four pitchers – Relievers? Starters? Feldman, Qualls, Hernadez, Deduno?

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      • I look for Rasmus to be gone. I look for Correa, Sclafani and Kemp to be pushing to Houston. I look for Appel and another pitcher to be starters and I look for Thatcher and another reliever to be different.

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      • Oh, and I don’t expect Rasmus to be run out of town. I expect him to have a pretty decent year in this lineup and get traded at the deadline. I think he was coasting this spring to stay healthy and is as ready as he will ever be to play from the opening bell next Monday. This is his chance to get a contract.

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      • I expect Rasmus to be run out of town. I just see a guy in a spiral. He has gone from very good to not so good. He hasn’t found bad yet, and he may not find it this year, but he is far removed from the guy that struck out 15% of the time and hit for decent average. He will still have some pop in his bat, power doesn’t disappear at his age, but I am guessing he has gotten lethargic in his preparation now that he has made enough money for it to not matter as much. I dont think he hits .250, and if he coasts the first month in at .220 or below, and Grossman is still hot, he may not survive until the break.

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      • The Rasmus I saw this Spring had power, rbi’s and walked more times than he struck out. He hit .240 but his ops is 1.057. He was hurt last year on a team in Toronto. Now the cowboy is in Houston. The last season he didn’t play with a bad hamstring was 2013 and we would all take his numbers from that year. The Guy is just 28 so he doesn’t have one foot in the grave yet, either.

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      • I cannot argue with the way he looks. If you say he looked good, and I did not have an opportunity to see a single game, I will take your word for it. You though are one of the first ones to remind us about ST stats.

        Here is what I know – 2009 (18%), 2010 (27%), 2011 (22%), 2012 (24%), 2013 (30%), 2014 (33%). A little hilly, but elevation steadily climbing. I also see a guy that has gone from league average Oswing (25%) as a rookie to another steady climb year by year to 33%(CJ territory). Injuries can certainly rob you of some sting in your bat, collapse your BABIP and power, but they rarely affect you chasing pitches. What does? Work. Or lack there of.

        We know the talent is there. If he matched his 2010 season he makes the Astros a better team. If he matches his 2014 season, bleh. I just don’t think the drive to be great, or even good, is there. He might have a lot in common with Singleton in that regard. That would be 18 mil between the two the geek squad recommended that might end up money poorly spent.

        I’m not ROOTING for the guy to fail, but I am saying, if there is going to be a problem on the roster, he and Lowrie both have to considered as prime candidates to provide them. They might shine. We know they all won’t. Who are your picks to not?

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      • The guy I was most worried about got sent to Fresno.
        If we can’t use spring training stats for Rasmus then we can’t use them for Grossman either. Since Rasmus is not hurt and is happier in Houston, I gotta think he is going to be a better player.
        Since Grossman decided to be more aggressive, his BA has jumped.
        Player I think is likely to have a problem is Carter slumping and us not having another first baseman.

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      • One plus on Rasmus – he seemed to be playing better towards the end of ST and hopefully he will use his one year with us to earn a big fat payday – elsewhere.

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  5. I’m on the fence about how the rotation will pan out. Once Feldman, Keuchel, McHugh and Cosart became our first four, it was a pretty reliable group in 2014.

    For 2015, I’m not worried about Keuchel regressing. But Feldman, based on his erratic career history, he’s a concern. I need to see ten starts from McHugh before I can confidently expect the same type of work he produced last year. I do think we’ll get it from him though. Hernandez is a question mark for me. And will Wojo/Oberholtzer/Peacock give us a solid fifth guy? I think yes, once it’s all sorted out. So, to recap, Hernandez and Feldman would be the reasons why I think the 2015 rotation is a push when compared with 2014.

    Defensively, we’ll be putting one of the better trio’s in MLB in the outfield to start 2015. Offensively, Rasmus and Marisnick have to be considered question marks at this point. But having Springer in the group gives the 2015 opening day group a slight edge overall, at least from the start. Not sure though if this outfield will be stronger than the one that had both Springer and Fowler on the field at the same time.

    Hard to say this club is not significantly improved over 2014. We’ll have a couple of weak links in this Opening Day group, but we’ve also got real help on the horizon too. It will certainly be a more interesting team to watch than we’ve had in a few years. I think we’ll see some stretches of quality baseball, but not quite yet the consistency to win more games than we lose.

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    • I like your analysis daveb. Some thoughts –
      – I think McHugh and Keuchel could have their ERA raise a bit and still win more games than last season with more runs being scored and a better bullpen.
      – For some reason I am more worried about Feldman than Hernandez who has a steadier but unspectacular background.
      – If Springer had been in the OF on opening day in 2014 – I would have given that OF the edge offensively with Fowler and Springer. But he wasn’t so I have to give this OF the edge….

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  6. I’m doing a happy dance because Wojo made the club! I listened to the game last night, and even though I couldn’t see him, I was impressed with his composure!
    Singelton took the news of his going to Fresno pretty well. He said he wasn’t surprised, and that he thought it was the right move! DANG……..I can’t WAIT until Monday!

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    • The pitching scenarios for the 4th and 5th spot in the rotation will be something to watch going forward. You can have Wojo pitching badly, adequate or great and the same for Hernandez. When Obie is ready does he automatically take Wojo’s spot? I think the answer is yes. When Peacock is ready is he the odd man out?
      Fascinating things are coming.

      I hope that Singleton is calm on the outside and seething on the inside – not from injustice, but seething because he had this chance in the palm of his hand and may see it slipping away. He needs to go improve or be gone it seems.

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      • Agreed, Dan. I would love to see Singleton get it all together at Fresno and force us to do something to make room for him on the big club. But he did not do it in ST. And if he waits too long, there are guys behind him who will.

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      • Singleton is only 23 but he has a lot more minor league experience than most players – he has almost 1900 minor league ABs through his age 22 season, whereas someone like Brett Wallace only had about 730 minor league ABs at the same age. I’m just glad the club is doing the right thing and is not keeping him with the Astros just because of his $2 million salary.

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      • Dan, I hate to keep correcting you on your writing, but going forward – please, please, please do not use Singleton and Wallace in the same paragraph. Big Jon has it difficult enough without an albatross hung around his neck.

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      • The plus side is that Singleton has a lot more ABs at a younger age than “He who shall not be named in the same sentence as Singleton.” The negative side is that you would think Singleton would be more ready for the bigs now than “He who shall not be named in the same sentence as Singleton.” But he doesn’t seem to be,

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  7. In the interest of fair play [after my comments yesterday about Chris Carter, I must point out that Chris has now not struck out in his last two at bats. Moreover, in his first at bat today he actually put the ball in play with a runner at third base, netting the team an RBI ground-out when the game was very much in question. Way to go, Chris! I still don’t like it when I see they have slotted you in at clean-up, but you CAN beat this slump!

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    • Yes Carter is inconsistent but statistically after a terrible April 2014, he was good or excellent every other month except June where he was poor.

      April 3 HR 8 RBI .153 BA / .279 OBP / .599 OPS
      May 5 HR 13 RBI . 232 / .284 / .784
      June 5 HR 9 RBI .164 / .243 / .631
      July 8 HR 19 RBI .289 / .355 / 1.005
      August 12 HR 29 RBI .270 / .328 / .940
      September 4 HR 10 RBI .228 / .347 / .752

      I wish he was more consistent, but not holding my breath.

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      • I like Carter’s swing – nice and compact. If he can just swing at the right stuff a little more often….(the same thing I say about Springer)….

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  8. My down and dirty snap shot, barring major injuries, we will score a lot more runs than 2014, we should win 80-84, and we will set a record for K’s “Play Ball”
    I can wait, already have my tickets for 2 Games In Denver,

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    • For a minute I thought that was the other name for Roberto Hernandez. Sanudo is a farm hand who pitched very well at A ball last year and poorly at Lancaster. Not sure why he is pitching in this game … must be short of arms?

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      • Mark Appel made Sanudo’s performance look like All Star material when he was in Lancaster. Pretty much everybody except Josh Hader, Mitch Lambson and Tyler Brunneman have problems pitching there.

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      • Not really saying he shouldn’t be pitching because he pitched poorly at Lancaster – just wondering why he is pitching in place of others who are a lot closer to the bigs.

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  10. In case anybody is interested, here are some interesting things that happened this spring in other camps:

    Dexter Fowler [Cubs] .273/.407/.432/.839 with 1 HR, 2 2B, 1 3B and 4 RBI

    Kike Hernandez [Dodgers] .273/.286/.582/.866 with 5 HR, 1 2B and 11 RBI

    Rio Ruiz [Braves] – 5 ABs, 2 BBs, 1 K

    Corporan [Rangers] .370/.438/.704/1.141 with 2 HRs, 3 2Bs and 8 RBI

    DeShields [Rangers] .263/.300/.474/.774 with 1 HR, 2 2B, 1 3B, 3 RBI, 3/5 stealing

    Jared Cosart [Marlins] 11.2 IP, 8.49 ERA, 2.23 WHIP, 8 BB, 7 Ks [before today]

    Folty [Braves] 11.1 IP, 6.35 ERA, 2.47 WHIP, 8 BBs, 12 Ks, 3 HRs

    Tropeano [Angels] 16.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 5 BBS, 6 Ks, 3 HRs

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    • Mr Bill – a note about Fowler. I watched a Cubs game a couple days ago. Both of the corner OFers made “high school fielding errors.” Terrible errors. So maybe the Cubs got Fowler for his DEFENSE.

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    • So the hitters we gave up are all tearing it up and the pitchers are getting torn up? Kike with 5 dingers? Ouch

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  12. Astros minor league placements announced. Guess what? Blaine Sims is moving up to Lancaster. That knuckleball in that wind should be interesting. I will definitely tune in to his starts.

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  13. Spring has sprung; the truck’s all packed;
    and all our farm clubs sure look stacked.
    With the Grapefruit Season in the books;
    it’s time to go and see the Hooks.
    Can’t wait to see that Kid Correa –
    we’ve waited so long for such a playa.
    Appel, McCullers, and Hader too;
    plus Kemp and Fontana all dressed in blue.
    Rebuilding years are long and lean;
    but there’s hope ahead – in ’17!

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      • Mier or Fontana would move up to play SS. I would hope it would be Fontana for his sake, because there is not gonna be a lot of playin’ time for some of those middle infielders at CC. But Mier might just be an organizational player to be moved around as needed from now on.

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      • That will be an interesting philosophical decision – do they bring up the guy who is supposedly not part of the future or not. I wish it was Correa personally.

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    • The talent is getting closer that is for sure – I want some door knocking and some doors kicked in this season.

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  15. Dan – overall great analysis. Hard to mince any of it.

    I would just warn in our eternal spring optimism that something similar was probably said last year about Singleton replacing Wallace, Villar getting a shot, Dominguez coming off a good second half, etc. I would agree this roster looks a little more tested and capable than last years, but i don’t know that the depth is there to replace when some inevitably fall to injury or struggle.

    I think we look like a 75-80 win team right now. A unsuspected win streak could take that up to 83-85, and that would be huge considering where they are coming from. Springer’s health and Carter’s consistency will say alot about the start of the season.

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    • Steven – the way I look at it – the team last season went 56-64 after finally getting McHugh up and Springer up and it did that with a bad bullpen and with Fowler and Springer missing a lot of games and Dominguez being the worst regularly played hitter in the whole league and Singleton being awful down the stretch.
      I know they can be derailed by injuries – but I think with normal injury luck this team can be above .500 without some freaky win streak. I think they will score quite a few more runs than last season and have a bullpen that is a run per 9 innings better than last season. I feel OK about them.

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  17. Well………maybe Petit will get a regular playing time, with the Astros he wouldn’t have gotten that. I love the guy, but he will be happy playing for the Yankees.

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    • He did a solid job for us last season – but with the glut of middle infielders, he was not likely to get time here. Good for him and maybe we will get a low level prospect for him,

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