Looking ahead at Astros 2015: The hot corner is heating up

Our position-by-position look at the Astros continues today as Brian takes a closer look at the revolving door that has been third base for the past several seasons.

• •• ••• •• •

Two positions for the Astros were essentially black holes in 2014. While Houston will rely on Jon Singleton again at first base, it’s likely the fans will see a change at the Hot Corner.

Last year, Matt Dominguez started 147 games at third, playing 153 there. While I’m always happy to see a skilled glove and arm at third — and Matty D uses the leather well — the Astros need a solid bat at third. If Dominguez can regain his 2013 form at the plate, maybe it’ll be him. But Jeff Luhnow obviously doesn’t have total faith in Matty D, otherwise he would not have said Marwin Gonzalez will compete for the job, then he went out and traded for Luis Valbuena.

And those are just the obvious options. Right now there’s a whole glut of people on the 40-man roster who could end up playing third base this season. After all, Jed Lowrie can play third, though he’s slated to pay shortstop. And while if Jonathan Villar gets any playing time outside of shortstop, it’ll more likely be at second base than third, it’s not like he couldn’t man the Hot Corner in a pinch. Oh, and then there’s Ronald Torreyes, who is fighting for the utility job.

OK, so those are the options on the 40-man roster.

Here’s what that looks like:

  • Luis Valbuena, 478 AB, 113 K, 65 BB, 16 HR, .249/.341/.435
  • Matt Dominguez, 564 AB, 125 K, 29 BB, 16 HR, .215/.256/.330
  • Marwin Gonzalez, 285 AB, 58 K, 17 BB, 6 HR, .277/.327/.400
  • Jed Lowrie, 502 AB, 79 K, 51 BB, 6 HR, .249/.321/.355
  • Jonathan Villar, 263 AB, 80 K, 19 BB, 7 HR, .209/.267/.354
  • Ronald Torreyes (at AAA), 460 AB, 26 K, 25 BB, 2 HR, .298/.345/.376

Whew! Those are a lot of options on the 40-man roster.

Like an old infomercial selling knives, though, I would say, “But wait! There’s more. You also get Colin Moran, Matt Duffy, Gregorio Petit and Joe Sclafani.” Here’s what that quartet did in 2014.

  • Colin Moran (playing at high-A Jupiter for the Marlins and a venti cup of coffee at Corpus Christi), 417 AB, 76 K, 37 BB, 7 HR, .296/.344/.397
  • Matt Duffy (split between AA and AAA), 517 AB, 106 K, 28 BB, 18 HR, .288/.336/.451
  • Gregorio Petit (first in AAA), 317 AB, 52 K, 20 BB, 10 HR, .297/.340/.457
  • Gregorio Petit (in Houston), 97 AB, 25 K, 9 BB, 2 HR, .278/.300/.423
  • Joe Sclafani (split between AA and AAA), 336 AB, 40 K, 36 BB, 3 HR, .315/.384/.405

The Rest of the Story

Down the road, options might include Nolan Fontana (.794 OPS at AA), Tony Kemp (.859 OPS between Lancaster and Corpus) and J.D. Davis (.878 OPS between Tri-Cities and Quad Cities … do we have a Penta Cities affiliate?) Between these three, only Davis is really a third baseman.

Moran is obviously the guy Houston is hoping will vie for the position in 2016. And Sclafani, with his nice K and BB rates, is an attractive option who apparently had a good run in the AFL this fall. If all the guys on the 40-man are out, or playing other positions, Duffy might sneak up to Houston if Moran struggles a bit.

Of course the gaping hole here is Rio Ruiz, who is now a member of the Braves organization. The conventional wisdom is that Moran made Ruiz expendable, but I don’t think that’s the case. Ruiz put up very good numbers in each of his three seasons, but I think the way J.D. Davis went from Tri to Quad — and is now likely slated for Lancaster — in just one season shows how Ruiz was expendable.

Hot Questions for the Hot Corner

Matty D has seen his OPS drop two years in a row, from his 109 AB 2012 at .787 to 2013 at .690 to last year when he was probably the worst full-time player in the majors with a .586 OPS. And while his BAbip has dropped each year (.299 to .254 to .244) his Line Drive Rate has increased (17%, 18%, 22%) and his Infield Flyball Rate has dropped (21%, 18%, 17%). So, did Matty D just have a really unlucky 2014? Maybe the answer is his Balls In Play Percentage, which dropped from 77% to 74% and finally 71%? Or it’s his rising K% going from 15% to 16.3% to 20.6%? Oh, Matty D, thou art an enigma.

  1. If Valbuena takes the starting job out of spring training, who is your backup at third, Matty D or MarGo.
  2. Will the Astros have enough spots on the 25-man roster to keep Matty D as a platoon with Valbuena? After all, he had a .677 OPS against lefties.
  3. Is Colin Moran really the 3B of the future, or does Sclafani or J.D. Davis usurp that spot from his this year?
  4. With a couple of backup SS who also play 3B and 2B, it’s likely the utility/super sub comes from this group. Would you like that spot to go to MarGo again, or Petit, who did it admirably last season? Or is it time to give Torreyes a look?
  5. And the big question: Are the Astros better off now at third base than they were on Sept. 28?
←
→

46 responses to “Looking ahead at Astros 2015: The hot corner is heating up”

  1. Nice job Brian! Lots of options, but it’s pretty clear that the job is Valbuena’s to lose going into spring training and probably for the first part of the season. I wonder if Luhnow has totally given up on Dominguez despite offering him a long-term deal last year?

    Like

    Reply

  2. Good job Mr Brian – very good read –
    One thought and then on to the questions – Matty D is so slow – it doesn’t help him to but balls in play…..
    1) It is a tough question about the backup to Valbuena. Marwin G was just a much better hitter last season, but Dominguez has a lot more power (which does one no good when they rarely connect). If Matty D looks better in ST – I might lean that way.
    2. If Dominguez makes the roster he could (as suggested before) be a part time platoon at 3B and /or 1B. It could work. The bigger question is if there are enough spots to go around. I just don’t know.
    3. It is a critical season for Moran – he could clinch his place as the next in line or lose traction and watch others (maybe even Kemp) flash past. I’ve never seen the kid play so I’m just whistling in the wind here.
    4. I like Margo at this point – he is relatively young but experienced and did a good job wherever they put him last season. Give young Torreyes a little more seasoning. Petit can get brought up if there is a need.
    5. Yes – they are better off now than last season at 3B – anybody who plays there (yes even 2015 version of Matty D) – has to give you better than .586 OPS production.

    Like

    Reply

  3. One thing we haven’t talked about is what the Ruiz trade does in the minor leagues. Because he’s gone, Moran isn’t being pushed and could stay in AA where he truly belongs. That frees up Fresno for Dominguez to play third base there if the Astros want to send him down.
    I would remind people that Dominguez in 2013 was just the same as Dominguez in 2014 until July and then he had three decent months. Basically, July 0f 2013 Dominguez was a major league quality 3B and the rest of the time he has been bad. So now you are trying to get a guy to be the player he has only been for one month of his career.
    If you want to know who has earned the backup position at third, it’s Marwin with his play last year. He is affordable, flexible, switch hits, and dependable.
    I am not as high on Moran as some are, but if he develops nicely it still won’t be until 2017 at the earliest, and even then, JD Davis’s power is going to be pushing him hard. I think Valbuena is the third baseman and I’m glad he’s available for two years.
    I love Sclafani and I hope he has a great year and pushes the Astros to make a spot for him later in the year.

    Like

    Reply

  4. The Astros need one MLB 3rd baseman and one Utility Infielder. The above options look “average” at their peak. (Where have I seen that term or was it “mediocre.” But I digress). Out of the group – agree it is Valbuena’s to lose and he will have to drop a ton to get below Matty D 2014. That brings us to the UT and MGonz has to be there unless he falls apart. Barring injury – those are the only slots available. It appears to be that Ruiz was not the only expendable – unless we are going to “tandem 3d” in the minors. It is time for someone in the minors to step up and force the options. As 1OP has written multiple times – we are past the time when we HAVE TO promote to get someone to the majors. Now they have to earn it.

    Like

    Reply

    • I agree with you. There are only four spots on the bench and one of those goes to a catcher. You have to have a versatile infielder at one of those spots, which leaves two. Gattis and Carter are already1B backups so 1B is covered. The other two have to be backup outfielders or combination OF/INF types(like Sclafani). I cannot see how you give one of four bench slots to a backup, non-switch hitting, turtle running, non-walking/non hitting third baseman who can’t play anywhere else on the diamond.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  5. You’re pretty much spot on with this. What I’ll offer, however, is that the Gattis and Rasmus acquisitions ideally add power to the lineup such that you might see improved success from a weaker hitter with higher OBP this year. If Valbuena stays in the .320 – .340 range for OBP we will likely be thrilled and give Luhnow an ‘attaboy’.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    • That is so true. Valbuena’s OBP and SLG were both very good in 2014. But the most encouraging thing about him is that in 2013, when he did not hit very well, his OBP was still .331, and that is much higher than Dominguez is capable of. It appears, he is going to get on base.
      Valbuena’s impressive #s last year were his 33 doubles, 16 homers and his 65 walks. He’s a pull hitter and the porch in MMP’s RF is shorter in distance and height than Wrigley. He hit 3 HR’s to CF last year that could be outs if he hits them in MMP, but I certainly see him hitting 15-20 this year in total.

      Like

      Reply

  6. Third base is covered better this year than last – at least at the MLB level. As I have stated before, I was not thrilled with trading Rio Ruiz for what I saw as just too little a return. I really don’t care how much he was or might have pushed Moran. With both in the stable we had insurance – and hopefully a little competitive fire in the belly, not to mention an attractive trade chip when we needed it. I hope OP1 is 100% right about JD Davis’ potential to advance quickly through the system – otherwise it looks like we have a long time to wait for any real help to come from within now if Moran turns into a bust or if either he or Valbueno get seriously injured.

    Matty? Aye, Caramba! No mas! Give Torreyes, Sclafani, or Petit a shot at the regular 3rd base job in ST – neither could be as bad as Matty has been, could they?

    Like

    Reply

  7. Looking at the schedule and probable pitchers for the first nine games of the season, the Astros could possibly face only two starting LH pitchers, Dettwiler and Kazmir. So they could field a lineup of:
    Altuve
    Valbuena
    Springer
    Rasmus
    Carter
    Lowrie
    Castro
    Singleton
    Gattis
    against all those RH pitchers and have some very good OBP and a lot of power.
    Gattis’s career .299 OBP against righties puts him down in the order, but they had better not relax against him because his career SLG against righties is a cool .469. He might have them looking up at the train if they’re not careful.

    Like

    Reply

    • Right now I must confess that seeing Colby Rasmus – a guy coming off a year in which his OBP was .287 and whose lifetime high in RBIs is 75 [two long seasons ago in his first season in the AL] – penciled in at clean up in our order makes me throw up a little in my mouth. Where are my purple pills?

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      • I didn’t pencil him in. I put him there against a slew of RH starters only. and I had him at cleanup then because of his career line of .257 BA, .323 OBP, .467SLG, 788 OPS against righties in his career. He slugs against righties, so I put him where he can slug effectively.
        Against lefties, maybe you sit him down or move him to the bottom of the order. Right handed starters are going to know how he bats against righties. But if they pitch around him they get Carter.

        Like

  9. A little side thing – maybe it was talked about and I missed it – but it is nice to see that Jeff Bagwell has returned to be a spring training instructor this year. It was obvious from the article I was reading that not all wounds are healed, but that of the people in the organization Reid Ryan was instrumental in helping to make this happen.

    Like

    Reply

    • Dan, I was not in a hurry to see Bagwell rejoin the team due to his very public attachment to the Brown divorce mess. Now that it is over…. come on in! Perhaps the uneasiness goes both ways.

      Like

      Reply

  10. The concerning part for me about Valbuena is a 29 year old plagued with a career problem in batting average. If he manages a .249 we will be lucky as it appears to not be likely.

    Still, he does walk alot, so his OBP will be much higher than Dominguez. Outside of that he just looks like a lefty Matty D, maintaining lower than average BABIPs, striking out around 20%, and managing 6 stolen bases in 576 games. The OBP is enough for me to want to see him get the job.

    If Dominguez doesn’t win his job, and I doubt that he does, he doesn’t serve a purpose taking up a spot on the 25 man because he can’t really play anywhere else. The Astros are better off giving it to Valbuena, keeping MarGo as the utility guy, and sending Dominguez down – so they can carry both Presley and Marisnick. There are only so many spots to go around.

    Like

    Reply

    • Valbuena had a higher OPS than Fowler, who you didn’t want to lose, last year while Dominguez was well below (.586). I am sorry Steven, but Valbuena is a HUGE upgrade from Matty D and on par with Fowler, unless you consider batting average a more relevant stat than OPS.

      Like

      Reply

    • I should also point out that Fowler has a higher K% and, as I know you are big on trending, Valbuena has been trending up in batting average and OPS. Furthermore, Steamer projects Valbuena to have a 1.6 WAR in 2015 and Fowler to have a 1.4. Finally, he had a flyball % of 48.1 last year compared to 35.0 for Fowler. This will play well with the short RF fence at MMP.

      Like

      Reply

      • I do agree, he has been trending upwards, but that a 48% fly ball rate is bad, since most fly balls end up in outs. His fly ball ratio along with his ground ball rate and LD rate looks to me like he is easy outs more times than an average major leaguer.

        If you are getting me to say that he is worst than Dominguez that isn’t happening. He is a discernable upgrade at 3B. Better than Fowler though, no. Fowler is likely to have 40 points (or more) better in OBP, and while Valbuena has power, and much more of it, Fowler fit this lineup better.

        Like

      • Well, we are going to have to agree to disagree because, with his numbers trending up, he is on par offensively with Fowler. He has more power, but a lower batting average. The BB rate is similar. However, there is no doubt he (LV) is a significant upgrade from Matty D. There is no way to dispute it.

        Like

      • Flyballs also can end up in HRs. Groundballs can end up in GIDPs, which is probably why Valbuena only hit into 8 last year. I would prefer a higher flyball % if the guy has power, which Valbuena does.

        Like

    • Valbuena in the two hole against righties gives you this:
      1. a pull power hitter with a good eye.
      2. A good eye with Altuve on 1st base.
      3. Hit and run with a guy who hit a lot of doubles last year.
      4.Lots of fastballs w/ Altuve running. Fastballs in or over, pull em’ because Altuve beats anything to second. Fastballs high or low, take’em because Jose steals 80% anyway. Fastballs away, go for the hole at SS because w/ Valbuena hitting, the SS is going to be taking the throw from the catcher on a steal anyway leaving the hole open..
      5. With Springer on deck and Altuve on base, they are going to be more inclined to pitch to Valbuena, rather than nibble because Valbuena knows what a ball looks like.
      6. If Altuve is not on base you have a guy hitting against RH pitchers who gets extra base hits setting up the 3,4 and 5 hitters.
      With the lineup I presented above against RH pitchers, you have a home run threat in every spot from #2 thru #9, and then you get to face Altuve again. Give me a batting champion 4 times and then 24 more at bats from power hitters and they are going to score some runs on righties.
      Maybe I’ll dabble with a lineup facing a Lefty sometime.

      Like

      Reply

      • It’s easy to look at Valbuena’s 2014 and think you are getting an upgrade.

        It’s more difficult to come to the reality that the .249 average last year brought UP his career average, and not just a little. This is a guy with Matty D like lower .200s, multiple of them.

        He has some power, and he walks, so I am glad he is here. I am on record as to liking the walk/power combo.

        I would prefer Fowler FOR THIS LINEUP. I think you have to have some synergy, because Fowler will be on base more often. He won’t have Valbuena’s slugging percentage, but he will walk almost as much and hit for a much better average. Simply put – Fowler fit this lineup in the leadoff spot, with Altuve batting second – currently I am not even sure who will be up there with Altuve. Lowrie I guess, but we would be better served to see Lowrie batting 8th or 9th unless you are expecting a bounce back – and Lowrie isn’t going to play 162, so who bats up there when he is out?

        I don’t want to rail on Valbuena, I don’t like his batting average, and its not average alone that concerns me, since he will likely hit as well as Carter or Singleton. What scares me about his batting averages is that they are low – and he doesn’t strike out 30-35% of the time like Carter and Singleton, and its been a consistently low average for years. I think, like Dominguez, he has some power, he can put a charge in a mistake pitch, but I am also guessing that when you consistently hit .215-.220 WHILE striking out only 20% of the time, you have a lot of pop flys and easy grounders. I am worried that we picked up a lefty hitting Dominguez that just adds one dimension in that he walks alot – and gave up any idea that we can have two “table setters.”

        Like

      • Hold on – Altuve may have stolen 50 bases, but he’s not exactly Billy Hamilton. As for the second spot in the lineup, I don’t think Luhnow is paying $8m to Lowrie to bat 7th.

        Like

      • Steven, I’m only comparing Valbuena to Matt D. I haven’t, nor will I compare him to Fowler. That Comparison doesn’t make any sense to me until you throw in Straily’s contributions and compare them for trade purposes in a couple of years.
        Luhnow throws the Rasmus signing into the mix when talking about the trade, and I agree with him that we are a better team with Rasmus, Valbuena and Straily, than we are with just Fowler.

        Like

  11. OK, go ahead. Try to win the game with stats. To me, the best lineup will always be the one that has the perfect balance of timely hitting, excellent pitching, and great defense. To me, this balance is “chemistry” and is what ultimately creates the outcome of the team scoring the most runs wins the game. The team that wins the most games is supposed to be the best. Matty D. has his flaws, but his glove is good and I don’t want to underestimate the effect that glove has on pitching performance. I know, somebody is going to respond with fielding stats to say he’s not good defensively. But defensive stats have a very subjective component to them. My subjective eyes say “I love his glove”. Have never seen Valbuena play so I can’t compare. But I do know that Matty D. can’t hit into a double play if all the hitters in front of him have struck out or if the hitter in front of him hit a home run….So, I will not complain one bit if he wins the 3B job and Valbuena becomes the utility infielder. But don’t know if Valbuena can play short. If he doesn’t, then I would say that guarantees Marwin a spot and Valbuena wins 3B slot and I will probably miss Matty D.

    Like

    Reply

    • Well, you are right. I am going to point out that the defensive metrics suggest Matty D is not a strong defensive 3B. He is much like Jed Lowrie at SS, which is if it is hit to him he will field it, but his range is limited. You can ignore the stats, but that is the direction baseball is heading and the metrics say Valbuena is a slight upgrade defensively from Matty D.

      Like

      Reply

    • Valbuena hasn’t played SS since 2011, and I am sure that is for a reason. He has logged a ton of innings at 2B and 3B, and some in the OF.

      Defensive metrics suggest he is an above average 3B. His UZR suggests he saves 10 runs a season, about, with his glove over the average 3B, and its a fair sized same – just over 2400 innings. When he leaves 3B, he is negative UZR anywhere else. Putting that with the 5-10, 210 size I am guessing 3B is really the position for him and not so much utility, though I am sure he could play just about anywhere in a pinch.

      I would say the best configuration would be Valbuena at 3B, Lowrie at SS, MarGo at utility and Dominguez in Fresno. Just my two cents.

      Like

      Reply

  12. At least Valbueno does not seem to hit into a lot of DPs. He only hit into 8 last year in 547 PAs. Dominguez hit into 23 DPs in 607 PAs. The other #2 that has been mentioned, Jed Lowrie, hit into 15 DPs last year in 560 PAs. If we are looking for someone to hit behind Jose Altuve, the best of these three alternatives surely looks to be Valbueno. And I think that holds true over the other potential #2 hitters, which I guess would theoretically include Springer, Rasmus and Castro.

    Like

    Reply

    • I don’t think you can go wrong with either Lowrie or Valbuena in the 2 hole. Lowrie has much better contact rate, which, as you mentioned, leads to more GIDP, but it also provides for nice hit and run situations, opening up holes with Altuve moving on the pitch. Valbuena will probably sit against most LH pitchers so I am guessing they will put Lowrie in the 2 hole since he will be playing virtually every game. I am fine with either one there as they both have decent plate discipline as well.

      Like

      Reply

      • If Valbueno sits vs. lefties [and you are correct, he does not hit well at all against them], do you see MarGo playing third vs. LHP? Last year MarGo raked against lefties in limited action, putting up .333/.366/.410/.776 numbers against them – albeit just in 39 ABs. Lowrie was just .228/.281./.317/.598 vs lefties last year in 145 ABs, but his career averages vs. lefties are good.

        So are you seeing Lowie at SS and MarGo at 3rd vs. lefties, or vice versa?

        Like

    • I think they keep Jed at SS and, when Valbuena is not starting, go with MarGo at 3B (unless Matty D somehow makes the team, but I don’t see that happening).

      Like

      Reply

  13. How do defensive metrics account for the “intangible” benefit gained from familiarity? If you play next to a guy for several season, you know what the man next to you on the field is going to do. I don’t think you can construct the most effective lineup solely by picking each individual with the best stats. I am guessing that is why we have the rocket scientist, Dr. Decision Science. To make sure stats are used properly. Hopefully his super computer can crunch through data on a “team” level. I think in a team sport, sometimes the sum of the parts can be more than the whole.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    • Nance – I have to agree. If looking at stats and picking players were the total sum – the Yankees or Dodgers will win every year. “On Paper” KC was not even in the hunt but the game is played on grass. But must I must disagree slightly in that the drop in quality with Fowler gone is not near as much as the apparent upgrade with Valbueno

      Like

      Reply

    • Yes, but familiarity with last year’s Dominguez and last year’s Villar blows that theory up. I think the fellow players on the infield will be happy with Lowrie at SS and Valbuena at third, especially if they are spanking the baseball. Having Marwin on the team won’t hurt either. In these days of free agency and moneyball, familiarity is a fleeting thing. It may not be good, but it is the way it is!

      Like

      Reply

      • Yes, but since baseball is a game of adjustments, I am holding on to hope that as the moneyballers gather more and more data, they might learn to quantify and assign value to some of those old-time intangibles……

        Liked by 1 person

  14. Let’s see……..we’ve already hashed over Castro not being happy, so let’s just hang Matty D from an old Oak tree and put him outta his (or your) misery. The whole team will arrive
    in four weeks to spring training…..maybe, JUST maybe we can let the guys and manager work out who is gonna play where….whatcha think????

    Like

    Reply

    • Then why have this blog? The the fun part of being a fan (well, at least one part) is being able to discuss and give opinions on issues like this. I look forward to reading this blog and everyone’s responses as it is the one place where it is all Astros fans. We don’t always agree, except for the fact all of us love the Astros and want to see them win.

      Like

      Reply

  15. Has anyone seen any articles on How to Watch the Astros in 2015. Our local cable has 5 shopping networks and the 3 local channels. So does anyone know if Direct TV will carry them? Someone posted last year how you could do a “work around” for MLB TV – so could use that. Any info or links would be appreciated.

    Like

    Reply

Leave a comment