Oh, that TV money is burning a hole in my pocket like a pair of quarters when the new packs of baseball cards came out back in the day. (Yes, I just gave everyone a glimpse at my age.)
But Crane said we’ve got $20 million to spend … I assume (ha!) that’s not including what we save on not re-signing Jesse Crain or Matt Albers, and the money saved by giving Jesus Guzman the old heave-ho. (He’s Japan’s problem now.) Oh, and what we will no longer pay Wandy Rodriguez. Of course, I’m sure it includes whatever raises are handed out in arbitration.
So as we make our way around the roster, it begs the question: Do you want to spend any of that TV cash on a new catcher or DH? Do you want to replace Jason Castro or Chris Carter?
As it is, the Astros will be spending more on those positions. Jason Castro should see a bump over the $2.45 million he made in 2014. Say his salary goes up to $4.2 million. Carter, meanwhile, was pulling down a paltry $510,000 in 2014. Expect that to jump to nearly $2 million in arbitration. After all, he hit 37 homers and shaved 30 Ks off his 2013 total in the same number of at-bats.
So, if we’re spending at or about $6 million on these two, what should we expect from the pair?
Your Whole Job Is To Hit
Let’s look first at Carter. While some of his overall stats came when he manned left field (please, not again!) and first base (ugh!), by far most came when he defended from the bench. A .227/.308/.491 overall slash came with the aforementioned 37 bombs, 21 doubles, 56 BBs, 182 Ks and 88 RBIs in 569 PAs. As just a DH, Carter hit .241/.318/.523 with 34 HRs, 18 2B, 45 BBs, 154Ks, and 78 RBIs in 482 PAs. Yep, Carter’s a better hitter when he doesn’t have to worry about where his glove is from inning to inning.
I’d take the DH version of Carter at $2 million. You can talk all you want about Billy Butler, Jason Kubel or Corey Hart having a rebound in 2015, but Carter actually outperformed them all. Heck, even the occasional left field playing Carter is better than these guys. And if he can cut another 15-20 Ks off his total in 2015, I’ll start being a real Chris Carter fan. And all of them would want more than the $2 million or so Carter will command.
The only real option from the farm is Preston Tucker. He’s got the power (24 HRs, .481 OPS), the hit tool (.282 combined AA and AAA average), the eye (.352 combined OBP, only 120 total Ks in 593 PAs), and the versatility to play in the field if needed. He’s save Houston about $1.5 million, but at what cost of production? Still, if Carter were traded, he could bring a pretty big haul in MLB-ready players and prospects.
Compare Carter’s numbers –either his DH-only stats or his composite 2014 numbers — to the 162-game MLB average for a DH, which came out to a .247/.317/.419 slash with 23 HRs (AL only), 27 doubles (AL only), 83 RBIs (AL only), 55 BBs (AL only), and 140 Ks (AL only). (Note: With counting stats, it’s not fair to add NL teams into the mix.) But all that said, Carter is looking good. And when you realize most DHs are the older players with big contracts and a decent bat, well, even at a bargain of a couple mil, Carter looks like a good deal.
Castro The Astro and His All Backstop Band
Other than a little time spelling Carter at DH (it really is a tough job), Jason Castro played the majority of his games and Houston’s games behind the plate. His slash was .222/.286/.366. He hit 14 HRs, 21 2Bs, drove in 56 runs, had 34 BBs and 151 Ks. His backup, Carlos Corporan, who is also arbitration eligible, went .235/.302/.376 with 6 HRs, 6 doubles, 14 BBs, 37 Ks and 19 RBIs. Castro had 500 PAs while Corporan stepped into the box 184 times. In his September call up, Max Stassi went .350/.350/.450 with no homers, 2 doubles, and 4 RBIs in 20 PAs. He whiffed 6 times and didn’t walk any.
The 162-game average for MLB catchers was .245/.309/.380 with 16 HRs, 29 doubles, 71 RBIs, 49 BBs, and 136 Ks.
Looking to replace any of the three — Castro especially — on the free agent market? Well, J.P. Arencibia posted a .608 OPS. John Buck wasn’t that good. Nick Hundley posted a .625 OPS, but will easily command the same salary as Castro. Wil Nieves had a .614 OPS and that’s been trending downward. Gerald Laird isn’t worth the money.
Russell Martin would be a big upgrade — provide we don’t see Castro return to 2013 form — but he made $17 million combined over the last two seasons. I’m pretty sure signing him would cost half or more of our $20 million total. That said, a 2014 OPS of .832 (career .754) is nothing to sneeze at. Geovany Soto posted a .665 OPS a season after his .794 OPS. Sounds a lot like someone whose name rhymes with “Astro.”
The only real farm option is Stassi, who played much worse in OKC (.247/.296/.378, 9 HRs, 20 doubles, 22 BBs, 103 Ks, 45 RBIs over 414 PAs) than he did in limited Houston action.
I’m not saying there aren’t upgrades available. There are. But they’ll cost a ton, and the player Houston has, Castro, was not far below the MLB average. In fact, combine Castro and Corporan, and you get an MLB average catcher for about $5.5 million total. Is that so bad? Or trade Corporan and hope Stassi is ready for that part-time duty.
Put On Your Thinking Caps
So, here are the questions to ponder:
- If you want to replace Carter, with whom will you replace him?
- Would you consider rolling the dice and trading Carter?
- Are you for spending big bucks behind the plate? If so, do you spend the big bucks for Martin or the medium bucks for Soto?
- I didn’t really talk about defense, but by all accounts, Castro got better in 2014. Do you want to see a different person handling Houston’s staff?
- Should Houston save a little scratch and trade their veteran backup backstop, Corporan? Is Stassi ready to play 50 games a season?
- As frustrating as it sounds, is Houston better off standing pat at DH and catcher?
Bonus Question: speaking of DHs — yes or no — do you vote for Edgar Martinez for the Hall of Fame?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
37 responses to “Astros’ position reviews: What to do at catcher and DH, if anything?”
This is an easy answer for me – Just say no! Look, neither player is perfect, but both are starters who have produced in the past and will receive less than league average in compensation in 2015.
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If Houston was raising the payroll $40 million, I’d consider it.
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The Astros cumulative DH’ers were 3rd in the AL in OPS and 5th in RBIs.
The Astros cumulative C’s were 9th in OPS and 3rd in RBIs.
I’d let it ride one more season and see who pops up from the minors to help in 2016 if needed.
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I could not agree more. In putting this together, I was delighted to see that Carter shaved 30 Ks off his 2013 total. If he can net just half that improvement in 2015, we’re looking at a manageable level of Ks from a power hitter. And with fewer Ks, I’d expect his average and maybe OBP to rise a smidge.
If Castro can get back just part of what he lost from 2013 to 2014, he could again be a real asset in 2015.
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if it were my team I would keep Castro because I think he wasn’t a fan of Porter and is happy Porter is gone. Castro’s down year stats were not that far below average so I go to arb with him and stick with him and get Stassi another full year of AAA.
If it is up to me I trade Carter at his peak, which is right now. He is arb eligible, has hit his max power and will bring something in return. Then I use his money and Cranes money and go after Victor Martinez with a three year deal plus a fourth option year. I offer him $16mil as a reward for his big oWAR and then $14mil for his year 37, $13 for his year 38 and a $12mil option year and I stick him at DH in the 3 hole.
That gives me a batting order that starts with Fowler LF, Altuve 2B, Martinez DH, Springer CF and Castro C. I finish with Singleton/Duffy at 1B, Martinez/Villar at SS, Marisnick/Aplin in RF and Dominguez/Sclafani at 3B.
Then I spend the rest of Crane’s extra $20mil on the bullpen, let Folty and Nitro fight it out for the #5 and long relief position.
Just so there is no misunderstanding, I shop the rest of the players not mentioned at a position and get what I can for them, because I’m moving my top prospects to AAA as fast as I can. That’s why I paid VMart big bucks to fill my lineup with OBP at the top and dumped sever low BA/high strikeout guys, starting with Carter.
I’m getting Tucker, Kemp, Moran, Correa, Ruiz, DDJ, Teoscar, and all my fireballing pitchers moved up where I can call on them as soon as I think they can contribute. I try to have Tucker ready for when I trade Fowler and his salary at the deadline.
Like I said before, I bat Dominguez ninth after the Marisnick/Aplin platoon bats in the 8 spot.
If it takes more to get Matrinez’s bat in the 3 hole I give him more the first year.
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This is an intriguing idea, which I would definitely entertain. However, I would not even consider trading Carter until VMart signs on the dotted line. Better yet, if we could get VMart, I would consider keeping Carter and letting them split time between 1B and DH, with JS starting the year in Fresno. I can’t imagine, as bad as they are in the field, that either Carter or VMart is a downgrade defensively from JS.
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We seem to be on the same page. I traded Carter to save his $4-5million so I could pay Victor and have money left for at least two real bullpen arms and handle the other arbitrations. Martinez seems to be the only bat I can find that gives the team so much firepower up at the front that we can afford to keep Dominguez’s lousy bat in the nine slot and hide him and use his defense and hope that Moran has a great year in AA and AAA.
I am so confident in the top four of our lineup being so potent, so confident that our starting rotation with Folty or Nitro in the #5 slot is so much better than last year’s opening 5, and so much more confident in our outfield defense, and if Luhnow learned anything, more confident in next year’s bullpen over this past season’s bullpen that I would go with this team like this.
I really don’t want to tie up money in a SS when I plan on Carlos being in Houston next September and being my opening day SS in April 2016.
I don’t want to tie up 3B with an expensive guy when I can put up with Matty in the #9 spot and have Moran and Ruiz getting closer and Davis already in High A. I would also rather compete with 14 teams for the best DH in baseball than compete with 29 other teams for a decent, overpaid free agent 3B. I think Victor hits more home runs in MMP than he did in Detroit and he gives us back some of Carter’s power.
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Would you rather hve Fowler and VMart or Carter and VMart? Fowler is conceivably tradeable either now or at the deadline, but not likely to be here in 2016 regardless. Carter is under team control longer…and my philosophy is that if he produces and becomes expensive then GREAT!
The difference, of course, is you can’t DH two playets at once.
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Victor Martinez is completely adequate at first base and, oh, by the way, made the 2013 play of the year as a first baseman:
I’m definitely all in for trying to sign VMart as it both legitimizes the club and adds an important piece for the 2017 World Series Championship Team.
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I’d rather have VMart and Fowler than VMart and Carter, because I want Fowler leading off and his defense in LF. If your team is in the hunt you keep Fowler all year and trade him next offseason. And I want Martinez at DH because I want him to hit for the next three years, not field a position and get injured or worn out. With his age and his salary, all I need for him to do is hit or walk a lot.
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Any lineup that has Castro, Singleton, Villar, Marisnick and Dominguez is doomed to strike out a lot and walk very little. Sure, they may hit .260 as a team, but their OBP and OPS will be awful. Singleton and Castro I would keep, Singleton is talented as all get out and can get better, Castro plays a difficult position that we aren’t likely to spend money to replace, the rest, probably wouldn’t make it out of my ST. Sclafani at third is interesting – but I would rather have him at SS and find a bigger body with a little more power for the less defensively challenging third – but if you give me a choice of Gonzalez at SS and Sclafani at 3B or Villar at SS and Dominguez at 3B, give me option A.
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I don’t think Villar will be in our lineup, at least most of the season. I think Marwin Gonzales is our everyday shortstop heading into 2015, and I’m OK with that. He’s steady in the field, not horrible at the plate. And Marwin is still young. I know he’s been around for a few years, but you need to remember we picked him up on a Rule V deal.
Marwin and Sclafani might be the deal come May or June. I’d take that.
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Castro was exceptionally awful at times last year.
Carter was great, exceptionally great, for about 2 months, the rest of the time, below average.
Still – it is difficult to find upgrades out there available. Russell Martin is outside of the price range, and given the near career year probably going to get over paid for what he will provide. None of the listed DH options are considerable upgrades over Carter.
I’m fine with Castro if we improve offensively in other places. My concentration would be 3rd, or even a SS, making Castro batting 7th or 8th a palatable situation. He will, afterall, have some power, and might rekindle some of that 2013 bat. He also draws a few walks. If by July it looks like he will repeat exceptionally awful, start looking to the internal solutions – Corporan, maybe Stassi or Perez. The biggest problem with sticking with Castro when he is struggling offensively is that he isn’t exactly a flying Molina brother back there defensively.
All in all, I’m fine going into the Spring with what we have at DH and C, I don’t think that similar performances will be what stops the franchise from moving forward the same way that we can’t have a .180 from our first base or a complete disappearing act from the other corner will do.
Bonus Question – yes. Fringe – in that he isn’t getting a special wing or anything – but he passes my main test – that he was the best at what he did, dominating type best – for more than just a season or two. Same reason I would vote for Dale Murphy despite the incredible fall off post Atlanta – for about 3-4 years Murphy was arguably the best outfielder in the NL, if not all of baseball, while still above average the rest of his career. Same with Edgar.
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I don’t think the Astros will make any move at C or DH. Both Castro and Carter are at least adequate, and in some respects more than that. Both are under team control and affordable. And I’d like to see Corporan return as well.
But, if we could trade Castro for some 3b or P help, I’d love to see Russell Martin brought in. Yeah, he’s going to want $8 to $10 million a year, but half of that would becoming from savings on Castro’s salary. And he would be a certain upgrade from Castro offensively and defensively.
Carter is safe unless someone offers us a boatload of talent.
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I think it is going to cost more than $8-10M to sign Russell Martin. I would expect he gets $12M+/year, closer to $14M to come here. Thus, his salary requirements are too high. Although he would be a definite upgrade at catcher, not enough to warrant that kind of money, especially if Castro returns to 2013 form.
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Perez was placed on the 40-man roster. I wonder if a catcher is headed to…maybe…the Cubs? For a middle infielder?
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Last year Perez went to winter ball and was just a guy. This year he is in winter ball and is bombing it. That is probably what the Astros have been waiting to see because they have to keep moving their catchers up and, eventually, move a couple out.
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Interesting note – Astros claim Will Harris. Plus arm, I think he can compete for the closers role. Good pick up for a banged up bullpen.
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Answers to my own questions:
* If we replace Carter, it needs to be via trade for an upgrade. VMart would do nicely. But if we sign VMart, I’d rather he play 1B, Carter DH and we trade Fowler.
* I’m torn on trading Carter. That’s still a LOT of whiffs in the middle of our lineup. But his OPS was solid, and if we see a bit of an improvement on the Ks and his OBP, I’d be happy to keep him.
* I don’t think Martin is going to come here. We just don’t have the money for that. And I just don’t think Soto will be worth what extra we pay him, particularly if Carter rebounds just a bit in 2015
* I loved whoever’s comment about Castro not being one of the Flying Molina Brothers behind the plate. But I think he’s getting better at handling the staff, so again, I’d keep him.
* As for Corporan, I’d trade him if we get a good offer. Stassi might be ready, and Perez was just added to the 40-man roster, so I think Carlos’ time in Houston might be limited.
* Keep both starters. Trade Corporan if, and only if, there’s a good haul for him.
* Bonus: Paul Molitor is in the Hall of Fame, and he spent a good chunk of his career as a DH. I think if you’re doing what is asked of you and doing it at an elite level for many years, you belong in the Hall of Fame.
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You guys are in LA- LA land if you think Victor Martinez is coming here! He wants a three year deal……..*AND* to play for a bonafide contender! I hope you have a good tip that he would sign here, ’cause I want you to pick my next lotto numbers!
I think Corporan stays until the break, and some team will NEED another backup catcher. Carter is safe for the time being, and the same for Castro. REMEMBER
Crane said he *MIGHT* be able to spend $20 million…..*might* being the key word here. That money is going to be spread pretty dang slim for Luhnow, he’s only got so much cash to improve this team. I’m betting he trades for a sure handed SS,
and a front of the rotation pitcher. We need to not get too invested in ANY prospect
or current player on the 40 man roster………because he WILL be pulling some
great talent to trade. Stassi ain’t ready yet…….
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I don’t think VMart is coming here, but I would love to have him. What if only gets 3/$45M contract offer and we counter with 4/$56. Do you think he passes up that extra $11M? We would definitely have to over-pay to get him, but if we did I think he would come here. Very few athletes pass up the money.
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Yes, I think he comes for 4/56. But is his OPS+ of 125ish that much better than Carter’s 115ish when you could get an entire BP, a good second tier SP like Santana, or extend Fowler for the money?
And, before you respond, it is too early to give up on Singleton. He needs to get his swings in the majors.
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Becky you are right. A lot of folks on this blog are indeed in La La Land. Vmart is not going to play on a three year deal for $10MM per. He is going to hold out for four years and $50MM, and he’ll likely get it. He also would not be worth that to the Astros. They have a DH, and a pretty good one.
We are also not going to get Chase Headley to play third on a make good contract for $8MM.
Russell Martin is going to play for a contender and is going to get (and it will be a mistake) $40MM+ over three years. He is the only catcher on the market, and a lot of teams need a catcher more than the Astros.
We have four catchers on the 40-man roster. We have 39 and still some pitchers to protect, not to mention al of these free agents y’all think we should sign. Look for Castro or Corporan to be moved soon.
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Flash, all the comments about VMart are based on my proposal of 3/$43 million with a fourth year option making it 4/$55mil. If he doesn’t want to play here, that’s different, but I did put his kind of money out there and even said if he wanted more I would go up on the first year to get him. As far as him coming here, how could you set the table better for him than Fowler and Altuve hitting in front of him and Springer behind him, with Correa coming up in year two of his deal? Nobody is blind to what the Astros have brewing in the minors and he knows what our future is.
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OP I love the idea of a low strikeout, high contact hitter in the lineup, and certainly will not be disappointed if VM is here. But, you displace one of your top offensive producers, who if traded for young, controllable pitching is not really an issue. But, you haven’t really upgraded your offense much, only changed the type of offense. VM is not going to settle in at a 166 wRC+ for the next four years. He is more of a 125-130 guy most likely. Carter is a different kind of wRC+ guy, but still a 115-120 guy. You still haven’t addressed 3B. Like I say below, Panda at $100MM+(losing)tax is a better deal. OTBG says Panda will be the next VM after he becomes too fat to play the field. That last sentence seems a little absurd.
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Flash, as long as you are convinced that a .230 hitter who leads the majors in strikeouts is just fine for a DH on the Astros, then there is no arguing with you. But, Carter is not my kind of DH. I personally don’t care for the top two guys in my lineup getting on base a lot and then getting stranded there. You can have that kind of guy hitting third in your lineup and I’ll put my kind of hitter batting third in my lineup.
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OP, I had no idea that Carter was a .230 hitter. BA is of little use to me. As are RBIs, and ERA. I’m not arguing that Carter is a better option as a DH than VM, just that he is a better option for the Astros. Too many other, unlikely, things need to happen to make it worthwhile. Primarily, a redundant Carter needs to be traded for either a 3B or pitching. Money that could be used to retain or acquire players at key positions would be tied up. And, not least of all, VM would have to maintain his 160+ wRC+ well into the contract. Even a regression to his career 130ish would be a disappointment.
I don’t think it is necessarily a bad move, but it is not a slam dunk either. In my opinion it it a class of transaction that ranks very low on my scale.
– Retain, extend your own good players. (Fowler, Springer)
– Consolidate your talent by trading good prospects for good major leaguers. (Jason Heyward, then #1, Starlin Castro, Tyson Ross).
– Address weaknesses in free agency (BP arms).
– Add complementary FAs (Cuddyer was my guy before the QO).
– Sign high dollar FAs (Almost never works in your favor).
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I used to be aligned with your thinking on this. I no longer am. There are only 15 teams in the league who employ a full time DH. If VMart declines the $15.3 million qualifying offer, he is down to 14 teams from which to choose.
Teams I think are out of the running:
NYY – $$$ to burn, aging players, prob not contender
TOR – Traded away Lind … may be making a run at him
TB – Not if he wants to win
BOS – Blocked at 1B and DH, but could eat the Napoli contract. Can they contend?
DET – Qualifying offer or bust
CHI – See TB/MIN
MINN – See TB/CHI
LAA – I wouldn’t put it past Arte Moreno to pay him $20M per year
OAK – Decent fit if Beane can convince him the August swoon was a fluke…except for that whole part about paying him the money
Teams that might work:
BAL – Pretty good fit if Cruz walks
KC – Could be a fit
CLE – Real good fit on paper. Does he want to return?
TEX – Might be a good fit
SEA – Might be a good fit
HOU – Becky and Flash say no
Houston is the youngest team in the majors and has a farm system loaded with tradable chips. We have such a low payroll they can absorb the salary and still look to add elsewhere – especially if you offset it by moving a Fowler / Carter / etc. We have Wandy, Crain, and Albers coming off the books as well. VMart is from Venezuela…just like Altuve (and Miguel Cabrera…). Maybe he’s not coming here, but I don’t think he has that many better alternatives. Note that I’m predicting/assuming Scherzer leaves and the Tigers trade Price in July due to being out of the race…so VMart will not be wanting to return there this spring.
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I just don’t think it works for either party. The Astros are not going to spend that kind of money at this point on the win curve, especially not for a 35 yo. There are five teams listed as “Teams that might work” ahead of the Astros. All are better fits for VM, especially Seatle. And, the Astros already have a plus DH. Paying Panda $100MM makes more sense than VM, not that I think that is a good idea. Or do I?
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Very interesting analysis.
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Am I the voice of reason, or the most cynical in the group? I just don’t see a splashy signing from this organization, as much as I’d like to see a Sandoval or a Martinez in our line up. Luhnow will continue to squeeze as much as he can out of a very limited payroll. I think I said last week that I would not be surprised if we again have the lowest payroll in the industry. With that in mind, with the exception of the bullpen, where he’ll make a few more under the radar deals, most of our help will come from within the organization. I fear we’ll lose Fowler as a result. And at this point, we might well see some real quality prospects traded for proven ML talent. These are the deals that will hurt, and ultimately make or break Luhnow. Not much different than moving a guy like Cosart. If Moran or Marisnick becomes an impact player, we’ll forget about Cosart, unless of course he wins 20 in 2015.
I just wonder how long we keep moving proven talent for more prospects. For me, it’s time to hold on to quality major league ballplayers while at the same time continuing to grow our prospects. And I won’t mind losing a few of those prospects for guys that can help right away. If our minor league system is indeed one of the best in MLB, then we’ve got enough depth to trade some of that talent.
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I don’t believe they will make a big splash (or even should), but believe Springer, Altuve, and gold glover Keuchel give us the legitimacy they have lacked to get real names to sign here.
I caught the AFL game on TV today. I think your guy Sclafani looks like a slighter Bill Spiers at the plate…which makes me hope he gets a shot at the 25 this spring.
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Totally agree daveb. If you have real player development people they should be able to tell you who the untouchables are and who is likely topped out in development but attractive to others.
It is time to pick up some real talent mlb talent for prospects.
It is time to win at the mlb level.
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well dave, id say you are some of both. i think we all are.
i agree that its hard to see us making a splashy FA signing, i am hopeful of an impact player coming in through trade. it sure looks to me as well that fowler is gone at some point – but when? during the winter meetings as part of the previously mentioned impact player trade or at the trade deadline this summer for what suits us at that time? looks to me that castro stays put, singleton is given lots of time to get it going, 2b is set, i dont think they will bring in a big dollar or multi-year contract at either ss or 3b because of internal help within a year or so at both positions, springer is here longterm, marisnick looks to be at least a 4th of and perhaps a starter and ah ha here we are back to fowler. so bullpen is the weakest link, look for money to go there, i wouldnt mind a legit closer even if it cost quite a bit. i also look for some change in the outfield, my hope is a trade for a middle of the order LF in exchange for something like fowler and an AA pitcher or two. marisnick in right, springer in center and a big bat in left sounds pretty okie dokie to me.
if both moran and marisnick become impact players i forget about cosart regardless. i think that trade was for depth at two areas where we needed it.
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For all you JL bashers (Like me). We need to remember the outfield in 2012 – JDM at .241, Shafer at .211, and Brian Bogie at .203. Now we have a “log jam.” (Not really). If we add BP and corner infielder help then .500 and above is realistic. If we stay put – MAYBE .500 but that is still a stretch – I believe. So no FA splash and no major trades = another year away from even “pretending to contend.”
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Let me be clear. I don’t think we are getting VMart. I believe all our free agent money will be spent on pitching with upgrades to the offense done via trade. With that being said the idea of having VMart and Altuve in the same lineup is tantalizing. If somehow we could get VMart I would be very happy.
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Gotta give it up for Dallas Keuchel,for winning his FIRST Gold Glove Award!!
He’s the first Astros pitcher to win one, and let’s hope he won’t be the last!
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