FREE Blog Monday: Observations, questions and thoughts

No, it’s not the weekend, but it is the off-season, so anything goes, right? Starting off a week with a Free Blog Monday, a first, but probably not the last. It’s your opportunity to opine, divert the discussion, throw in your two cents and generally steer the conversation.

I’ll get us started.

  • The Royals and Pirates didn’t go out and sign any players like Victor Martinez.  They acquired their biggest guns through the draft or through trades. Will the Astros follow that example?
  • Despite the high interest of in Tim Bogar by many teams, the Astros apparently were not interested in talking to him again in its pursuit of a new manager. Last week, the Diamondbacks sought and received permission from the Rangers to interview the Texas interim manager. Maybe the Rangers haven’t been bowled over by him either.
  • If the past two off-seasons have been any indication, Jeff Luhnow won’t be shopping for a top tier closer. Two years ago, he signed Jose Veras, who had saved only five games before being awarded the Astros’ job. Last year, Luhnow bet on Jesse Crain — and lost — with that meager $3.25 million gamble. Don’t look for a Jonathan Papelbon or Huston Street type. Look for a younger pitcher who has succeeded in late innings, but not necessarily in the closer’s role. Or expect another round of spreading the risk by adding multiple pitchers to compete. All while the organization waits on its up-and-coming prospects to settle the issue in the near term.
  • Perhaps someone has already noted this: Three of the four managers of the Championship Series teams were catchers. The only one who wasn’t — Clint Hurdle — actually spent a little time behind the plate in the majors, but his bench coach (Jeff Banister) was a catcher during his minor league career. Didn’t I hear that A.J. Hinch was a catcher? Just sayin’.
  • Dave Trembley, Bo Porter, John Mallee, OKC pitching coach Steve Webber and a few others already have plans for 2015. Does the Astros’ slow-motion move to add to its coaching staff mean they are considering coaches who are in the playoffs? Or just that they are taking their time to do the due diligence?
  • The Astros are apparently looking to include a former manager on the coaching staff, which means that Hinch will likely have an experienced hand as bench coach. Former KC manager Trey Hillman is apparently one of those candidates.
  • Moreover, what will become of Adam Everett, Doug Brocail and Tony DeFrancesco?
  • For your discussion: Do the Astros actually have an ace in the rotation? Or are Collin McHugh, Dallas Keuchel and Scott Feldman merely two-through-four guys?
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50 responses to “FREE Blog Monday: Observations, questions and thoughts”

  1. There is ample reason to think that the captain and his first mate in the Astros dugout this past season were not the right ones. Porter is back coaching third base and Tremblay is into scouting and not on the bench. Mallee is gone.
    The Astros never seemed to be a team that could go on a sustainable run of good baseball. When they were better, it seemed that the starting pitching and Altuve and Carter and Springer, a few times, were doing it all. The bullpen and a big majority of the lineup were consistent heartaches for this follower the entire year. The biggest disappointments at the plate, Singleton, Dominguez, and Castro present some interesting problems for the 2015 Astros. Fortunately, Luhnow could converse with these guys and find out what was in their head, why their bats and minds went south, and what it will take to get them back on the right track. Something tells me that at least one of them may not have the ability to rebound.
    Chip’s question about having an Ace on the staff is relative. Right now we don’t seem to have a true “Ace” going strictly on present ability. but I think we have a darkhorse ace in the making with McHugh. He showed good movement, good heat and movement and the ability to sustain them late into games. But mostly he showed a plus/plus curve and that gives him the ability to dominate and since he has only started 40 games in his major league career and shows he can dominate, I think he has ace potential right now.

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  2. – isn’t the Russell Martin signing cited as the catalyst for putting the Pirates into the postseason? As for KC and Baltimore, they had total team efforts, but we sure heard and saw how the Shields/Davis and Nelson Cruz acquisitions helped.
    – regarding an ace, I’m as confident in those guys as I would be in experienced arms like Lester, Sabathia, etc. I think the big difference is that guys like David Price and Justin Verlander were able to take the ball and get it into the ninth inning with a lead regardless of their pitch counts. For a regular season game, I’m happy to see a starter gut us into the seventh. In the playoffs, I want a guy that can get us into the ninth to create as much flexibility in bullpen usage. WS championships for the guys I mentioned would indicate there is not much backing my way of thinking, though. I wouldn’t trade the farm for one arm right now. I’d do the Randy Johnson mid-season trade in a similar situation though.

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    • Devin…Yes on Martin, however, he was coming off a down year (.211/.311/.403) and didn’t command a big salary. 2 years/$15 million. Shields came in a trade, which is to my point. He’ll be a free agent this winter, which is the primary reason that Tampa Bay moved him, thinking they wouldn’t be able to afford him as a FA.

      Cruz was coming off the PED scandal and was a steal at 1 year/$8 million. He’ll get much more this off season…

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      • Doesn’t that point out how great the starting pitching begins to look like. At the beginning of the year we had Feldman, who was named the ace of the staff by the Astros but was clearly a #3 type pitcher, and Keuchel who was named the #5 guy, Cosart who was called their #2 and Ober and Harrell who just got stuck wherever Porter put them in the rotation.
        Now we have a guy like McHugh who really flashed #1 stuff, Keuchel who looked like a #2 with the innings, the whip, the ability to save the bullpen and stop a losing streak, Feldman who looked like a solid #3 and pitched like one. Then we have a lefty, Ober who projects to a #4 and a variety of pitchers who can step into the #5.
        But better than anything, we may be coming into some money with the TV deal that might allow us to sign a true #1 ace in the next couple of years to a deal and move the other pitchers down a position and make the rotation stronger with McHugh as a #2 with the stuff of a #1 and Keuchel as a great #3 with the stuff of a #2, and with possibly Appel as a #4 with the stuff of a #3. Then maybe one of those pitchers we have in the minors that right now project to #3s end up being a #5 with the stuff of a #3 and that gives you a staff that overmatches you against all but the wealthiest clubs who sign older premium pitchers for huge money and then pay them big bucks while they go on the DL.

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      • It seems that the pitching staff is taking on the characteristics of a competitive staff. Now depth, that is another matter. After four it gets very thin. On the 40-man right now, I see only Nitro, Buchanan, and Peacock as the only legitimate starters with a chance to start the season in the rotation.

        Tyson Ross and Wade Miley would be good targets.

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      • It depends on how far off they intend to compete. Probably something built around, one of the pitchers we need to protect for Rule 5, Michael Feliz +2 maybe.

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  3. Great interview with Lance McCullers Jr in Climbing Tal’s Hill this morning, where the reader can actually learn something about an Astros prospect that comes from the horse’s mouth. He actually talks about his year of pitching in review.

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  4. If the difference between a $9 million closer and a $4 million closer is 2-3 blown saves, I’d rather put that difference toward a third baseman or first baseman. Or top of the rotation starter.

    I hope we find a place for Everett and Tony D. If we keep Brocail, that’s fine. If not, I think he’s coaching at “replacement level.”

    If Keuchel can essentially repeat 2014, he is a No. 1 starter. His ERA, WHIP, ground ball rate, etc. all support this. Even with a little regression, McHugh is a 2.5. Feldman, if healthy, is a 2.5, if he repeats 2014, he’s a very solid No. 3. I’ll take it. That said, I’d take another TOR pitcher. Two No. 1s is a good problem to have.

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  5. – I liked how the Bucs and Royals were put together – High draft choices, foreign draft choices, some guys picked up in trades when they were dumping talented folks a few years ago, some guys picked up in focused trades where they traded prospects for need and a few decent FAs.
    – Luhnow has never gone out and gotten a solid closer and his bullpen has been the worst in baseball two seasons in a row. Time to try something else…
    – Catchers make good managers…..when they have good players to manage.
    – I hope Adam Everett and Tony D have a spot in the future organization – don’t have a strong opinion either way on Brocail
    – The Orioles don’t truly have an ace – 5 guys with ERAs between 3.23 and 3.65
    The Tigers have 3 guys who would be considered aces (Verlander, Scherzer and Price) though only Scherzer pitched like an ace for them this season and his ERA was 3.15.
    For the Royals – I guess Shields is the ace though Duffy had a much better ERA (2.53) with no run support.
    The Angels best pitcher (Richards) ended up on the dl – After him Shoemaker was probably the ace.
    For the A’s – I guess Gray and Samardzija were the closest to aces.
    I’ll be straight about this – when looking at the AL playoff teams – Keuchel and McHugh were as good as the top two for any of those teams that made the playoffs. Their teammates in the batting order? Not so much.

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  6. Hate to change the subject, but did any of you see the article on fangraphs.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-houston-astros/

    Almost too in depth, with more information than I could digest. They spoke highly of the Astros minor league system, but when it came to each player’s evaluation, the critical analysis almost made each prospect seem flawed and run-of-the-mill.
    I guess I’m a little spoiled in that I’m used to all you guys on this blog digesting all that info and giving me the highlights.

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    • Yes, md57, it was discussed largely over the weekend in the previous entry. That said, anytime scouts are looking at prospects, it’s part of their jobs to find the flaws and to communicate the areas in which a prospect is deficient. Yes, some flaws are more obvious, gaping and exploitable than others, but it’s also an opportunity for a prospect to fix the flaws before they get to the majors.

      Some of these prospects will make and others will not. The ones who do may be surprising and some of those who are ranked higher may not. Obviously, a 5-10 Roy Oswalt wasn’t on the top of everyone’s list when he was drafted in the 20th round, but he was determined and kept advancing.

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    • Without reading his entire methodology, McDaniel seems to try and pinpoint the player’s most likely outcome. So, even a player that ultimately becomes the best player in baseball (Mike Trout), only got a 55-60 and a 65-70 on the 20-80 scale for running and power respectively following his draft year. Sickels gave him a B+ for what it’s worth.

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    • The scouts definitely have a CYA way of reporting about what they see. They never account for a player learning something new until he’s actually shows he’s done it. So reporting on Hader they only say what they see in him now and project those things only. So if a coaching staff adds a avg pitch to his repertoire and/ or improves a current pitch then suddenly his projections soar. Scouts save their raves for only the best and even point out that someone like Correa will never be as good a fielder as Tulo thereby tempering even the most hopeful fan’s hopes. In short, some scouting reports can be crap.The odds are always in the scouts favor if they downplay, but their errors usually tend to be when they shortchange a prospect.

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      • I also read some comments that the Astros are despised by most scouts and, as a result, they want to see us fail. The article discussed the fangraphs article and suggested some of the negative comments about the Astros prospects was somewhat due to this disdain scouts have for us. I am not sure if there is any validity to this, but just thought I would mention it.

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      • Tim, I think some of that could be true, even with McDaniel himself. I read some of the other Fangraph prospect evaluations and the one on the Astros seams to find every little flaw they can in all of our prospects. You could read the article, and if you didn’t know any better, come away thinking the Astros minor leagues were in the lower third of the rankings rather than the upper third.
        As an example, they talked about Velasquez’s and Feliz’s ceilings as #3 but point out they only have 2 legit pitches. Then they rate Appel as a #3 also even though everybody knows he has had 4 pitches since he was a freshman in college. The implication being, of course, the whispers that Appel is “soft”. Shhhhh don’t say that too loud. Yeah, there might definitely be some quiet dislike for the Astros out there in the good ole boy scouting community.
        There could be slanted scouts and there could be slanted summations of scouting reports.

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  7. Over the weekend there was a bit of chatter on that article if you go here

    Astros: Following in the Pirates, Royals footsteps


    and scroll down towards the end of the comments.
    Overall we thought it was a pretty honest assesment – though a little harsh on some guys – like Hader. Hey he’s 20 years old and 160 lbs. he might get a little more velocity when he puts on a few more lbs on that long frame

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  8. “…I also read some comments that the Astros are despised by most scouts”

    _________________________________________

    Hey Tim, would love to read that article. Do you have the link?

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  9. I hope Adam Everett will stay up with the Astros, he is a wealth of infield knowledge, and God knows we need help there! Brocail will continue to be a pitching coach somewhere. Tony D.’s health may determine if he continues to manage, but I expect him back as well. As for a “true” ace, McHugh and Keuchel were great this year, but in my opinion we need a BONIFIED true ace. A guy we can send out there and not think he’s teetering on the edge. Sure, we would LOVE to see a Verlander, or Shields, but would either one of these guys want to come here, with the reputation we have as a “young rebuilding” team??? I think not. Soooo it’s back to the used to be good guys, and someone trying to get back in MLB, on the cheap.
    Look, we talked about this at length last week, but just because Crane said he might up the payroll to $20 million, doesn’t mean he is GOING to invest that much.
    Luhnow’s got a lot of money managing to do in the next few months…….I’m bettng the payroll won’t increase that much. Which takes us to the other “option”…….trading
    high level prospects. It ought to be interesting at the winter meetings this year.

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    • I think Kuechel and McHugh are just that guy. Verlander spent a lot of time tetering this year. I never felt uneasy when Kuechel was seeing the hitters for the third or fourth time.

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  11. It is weird Becky and maybe it is because of my good friends was a Cards fan, but I never hated the Cards like I do the Yankees. They always seemed to earn what they received – not having to spend twice what most other teams did to win like the Yanks have. I don’t like the Cards but I respect them, respect their fans and respect how they run their organization.

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    • I haven’t reached the rooting for the laundry stage of fandom, yet. I think this is why I have such strong reactions to player trades. I strongly dislike the Cardinals because 1) McGwire 2) Pujols. I dislike the Yankees and Red Sox much more strongly because of 1) their tactic of outspending everyone 2) the insufferable nature of their vocal fans 3) ESPN over saturation of their games.

      With that said, the Angels are making a strong push into that list. OK, they may have passed the Yankees already, in truth.

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  12. IDK I think you have to have a mix in your pitching staff. I think McHugh and Keuchel are great regular season “aces” – for what its worth – but how that will translate to playoff baseball HOPEFULLY we will see in the near future. I think it might be fair to compare it to the Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz trifecta, where Maddux and Glavine were a little better at the heavy lifting of getting them there, but Smoltz was the better playoff starter. Maybe if the Astros find that one more gem – the “stuff” guy with plus velocity that can dominate a playoff type lineup – they will be better for it in a short series.

    I can see why so many catchers make great managers – after all they spend everyday entrenched in the strategy of every pitch. The only other position that comes close to it in pitch by pitch, every at bat what I do is crucial mentality is the SS, and even then not really even that close. I imagine its really even all the way to a thought process in high school or even before when a person chooses to catch – their personality fits the journey they are about to embark on. It’s why I think we all believe that Craig Biggio will one day be a fine manager – when he decides to take that opportunity. Given the age of his children I wouldn’t expect it for another decade though. Keep in mind – even outside the Championship series – there are many very good managers out there like Scioscia from behind the dish.

    I don’t see the Astros using due diligence in their model for hiring coaches. I’ve said before and I still think that way – Luhnow is from the “new” school, he thinks like the stats geeks do – the manager, and coaches, just aren’t that important. Why else hire a guy that already has a bad reputation as a communicator and teacher – but loves creating statistical matchups – and so quickly? Give me Lou Pinella or Buck Showalter any day – they use stats in their preparation – but when they step on the field, they manage games, not spreadsheets.

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  13. Question: Do the Astros actually have an ace in the rotation?

    I would love to hear what others consider an ‘ace’ to be. Generically, it just means the #1 pitcher in any team’s starting rotation. But it at least implies a level of dominance that should be borne out statistically. How would you all rank the following pitching statistics in order or importance for determining if a pitcher is a true ‘ace’ or is just the first guy out in the rotation:

    ERA
    WHIP
    WAR
    K/9
    K/BB
    IP
    BAA
    # of games started
    Average IP/start
    # of Quality Starts/# of starts ratio
    GO/AO
    Team wins per game started by this pitcher
    Wins
    Won/Loss ratio
    Other?

    I personally would probably tend to focus more on team wins per game the pitcher started, WHIP, BAA, ERA, K/9, K/BB, IP/start, and GA/AO in that order.

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    • Mr. Bill – I ‘m OK with your list except I think team wins per game the pitcher started. Maybe over a career that will show – but so many times particular pitchers get the short end of the stick from their team’s offense. You see someone like Nolan Ryan who was 8-16 while leading the league in ERA or Dan Duffy of the Royals who was 9-12 with a 2.53 ERA and1.112 WHIP.

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    • Very good question. I guess to me the answer – over 162 games – give me Keuchel. If I need to win game 5 of the playoffs give me Verlander (before 2014), who is much more likely to take a playoff type, good hitting lineup, on a given day, and post 10 K’s with 3 hits. Keuchel will just kinda bang on you pitch after pitch in the zone, but pitchers that typically rely on spotting can be vulnerable in the playoffs, not all the time, but sometimes.

      Or let me win the lottery and give me Price – who maybe outside this season – has been outstanding in the regular season and is built for playoff baseball.

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      • Many more examples of the power guys being good than bad – certainly we kind find examples on both sides. Besides, the A’s feel apart as a team, not even finishing .500 the last 2 months.

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      • Sure but I’d rather quantity of good pitchers. In an elimination game I’d wouldn’t want them to see the same pitcher more than twice.

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    • Good question. For me, I think there are two components. The big one is staying out of trouble. WHIP and sSLG are the biggies for me. After that, I want to see the results. Wins and ERA may be too team dependent, but if you can’t keep the ERA under 3.00 and your team is around .500 in your starts or less, it’s difficult to think you are keeping your team in the games enough. You might cite Roger Clemens as a counter example, but he left after the 5th inning of most games (for HOU).

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    • Hmmm…a little arbitrary, but I’d say the top 15 in FIP would be a start. For this year it passes the eyeball test, no obvious exclusion or inclusion errors there. Things I absolutely do not consider: ERA, Wins, Quality Starts, WAR.

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    • Whip then K/BB then GO/AO for the starting pitchers is what I look for first.
      IP then K/BB then GO/AO is what I look for first in relievers.

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      • ERA still remains a bottom line stat, especially for a starter. There are a lot of great advanced stats out there today, but ERA remains a pretty good indicator of effectivemess for a guy in a rotation.

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  14. A thought for a future thread the Chipalattas could have fun with: Would you trade current Astros for past Astros, e.g.,

    Dallas Keuchel for Bud Norris
    Colin McHugh for Jared Cosart
    Chris Carter for J.D. Martinez
    Jason Castro for Steve Pearce (and, say, a mid level prospect)
    Mike Folty for Mark Melancon
    Dexter Fowler for Michael Bourn
    Brett Oberholtzer for Jordan Lyles
    George Springer for Hunter Pence (and, say, a top prospect)
    Brad Peacock for J.A. Happ
    Jose Veras for Wesley Wright
    Rio Ruiz for Chris Johnson

    No doubt y’all could come up with more entertaining pairings…

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    • When I first read past I thought you were going like 80s on us and ask us Doran or Altuve lol!

      I think you are just asking is this team better than it was 3-5 years ago? Talent wise, yes, performance wise, not so much, yet.

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    • I might consider J.D. Martinez for Carter, but no on the rest of your trade proposals. I know he is a free agent, but would you trade Villar and Fontana for Jed Lowrie?

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      • No. It’s possible Lowrie bounces back in 2015, and he can also play 3B…but I’d rather take my chances with the cheaper options we have. Lowrie had a good start to the season, but was pretty poor the rest of the way. Given injury history, I don’t see a good reason to give up on two guys with some upside(s) for him.

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  15. I’m a gambler…….but I wouldn’t take 99% of the guys who used to play here.
    I loved Hunter Pence, but he’s doing very well where he is, his ship sailed when
    he was traded. Happ??? Are you kidding me? He hated playing here……so *no*!
    I’m off to babysit my three grandsons in Memphis for a week, so you guys behave yourself while I’m gone! Got all three of them Astros stuff…….even though they
    go to a lot of minor league games with the Cards “Red Bird’s” AAA. I’ll check back in with you on how Tanner is doing when I get back. God has answered so many
    prayers for our family, and I can’t thank each one of you enough for YOUR prayers for him! Take good care of each other……..ok!!

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  16. Last night’s AFL game was very interesting for Astros fans. First of all, Andrew Aplin started in CF and Mr. Everything, Byron Buxton, was moved to RF. The Salt River Rafters won the game 1-0 on an rbi triple by Aplin, driving in Tyler Heineman, who had singled in the eighth. Salt River had seven hits. Rio Ruiz had two of them, Aplin had two of them and Heineman had two of them. Heineman caught the shutout and Mark Appel started it with four shutout innings, allowing one hit, two walks and striking out six. Tyson Perez danced around a hit and a walk in the ninth but got the save. It definitely was an Astros’ Night.
    Salt River is now 6-1.

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  18. Well, Wednesday night’s AFL game went the opposite way. Vincent Velasquez was tagged for six hits and five runs in three innings and the loss as Salt River was downed 7-5. The only other Astros prospect to play was Joe Sclafani who went 1-4 with a two run home run. Sclafani played LF.

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