Perspective: MLB prospects and a look ahead (and back)

First thought: The Astros are 66-83 with 13 games to play. If the season ended today, the organization would draft second, eighth and 31st in 2015. The first 11 picks are protected.

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Jeff Luhnow’s blueprint is centered around rebuilding the organization through the draft. Once the minor leagues are sufficiently seeded, he intends to fill in the gaps and add other key hitters and pitchers through free agency, trades and other acquisitions.

Despite the last 2-3 drafts — and the jury is still out on 2012-14 for the most part — there is not much to shout about from 2005-2011. In fact, there’s not even much to whisper about!

Here’s a quick synopsis of the drafts beginning with the team’s World Series year. The number in parentheses represents the number of players drafted by the Astros (in the entire draft!) who have seen any time in the majors (for any team).

Since the lists are so short, the names are included.

Too early to judge the 2010 and 2011 drafts completely? Perhaps, especially when you consider that some teams have worse “records” while others are marginally better.

Still, it puts the focus on the crap shoot that is the draft and perhaps adds question marks to some of those players in Dan’s entry over the weekend. Is Foltynewicz really a top prospect? Will Jon Singleton actually make it in the big leagues despite top notch showings at most every level of the minors? Barring major injuries, Carlos Correa and Mark Appel should be shoo-ins, but what about Domingo Santana, Delino Deshields Jr., Colin Moran, Vincent Velasquez and others?

That the draft is, indeed, such an iffy proposition is another reason that Luhnow is gambling on higher picks. He’s traded for a competitive balance pick for a second year in a row. He selected Derek Fisher in June with the pick from the Orioles in the Bud Norris trade. Just recently, he sent Jarred Cosart to Miami for Moran (last year’s #6 pick) and the Marlins’ competitive balance pick (#31) next June. That will give Houston three of the top 31 picks and that certainly raises the potential success rate for a draft.

In case you’re wondering, six players taken in the first round of the 2012 draft are in the majors today. None of the Astros’ picks from that entire draft have made the jump yet.

Just for fun, here’s where Sunday’s starting lineup was drafted and when they made their debut:

Most fans and even media are high on several players and it would probably be shocking if this Top 10 didn’t get at least a cup of coffee. So, let’s change the perspective a bit while continuing the prospect conversation.

  • Using Jonathan Mayo’s MLB prospect watch, updated recently, break up the Top 10 (or 20 if you dare) into “can’t miss”, “good chance” and “flip a coin” as to whether they will spend considerable time in the majors.
  • Is there a Biggio, Bagwell or Oswalt in the bunch?
  • Which of the following players were drafted in the lowest round by the Astros: Hunter Pence, Morgan Ensberg, Bagwell, Chad Qualls or Oswalt?
  • What is the best mix of players on a team, using these as categories: homegrown, trade acquisitions or free agents?
  • Comparing the list of players above who made it (2005-2011), how much better will the drafts of 2012-14 fare?
  • Which of the players from the Astros’ 2013 draft and the 2012 draft will be the first to the majors for Houston? For extra credit, predict the month and year.
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64 responses to “Perspective: MLB prospects and a look ahead (and back)”

  1. I’ll give it a shot
    – Top 10 can’t miss – Correa, Ruiz, Hader
    – Good chance – Appel, Folty, Moran, Santana, McCullers
    – Flip a coin – Velasquez, Feliz,
    – I think Correa is the most likely to be special like Bidge or Bags
    – Well Bags was not drafted by us – I think Oswalt was taken late like 16 or 20th round
    – I like what the Cards have done with mostly home growns and a few key FAs
    – I think these will be better drafts with up to double those nmbers making it and mosr with us (though 2014 might be a struggle)
    – 2012 – Correa will make it May 2016
    – 2013 – Appel will make it May 2016

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  2. Cant miss spending considerable time in the majors: Correa, Folty, Moran, Ruiz, Hader, DDJ, Kemp.
    Good chance of spending considerable time in the majors: Appel, Santana, Velasquez, Feliz, Teoscar, Fisher, Stassi, McCullers.
    Flip a coin if they will see considerable time in the majors: Nitro, Reed, Smith,
    Fontana and Tucker.
    Correa is in there with Bags, Bigs, Oswalt.
    Bagwell was not drafted by the Astros.
    For the Astros the best mix is homegrown and trade acquisitions. For most of the other teams it’s homegrown and free agents. For the Yankees and Dodgers it’s Free agents and trades.
    2005-2011 drafts were not too good. Don’t have any 2012-14 players in the majors so there is no comparison to be made yet.
    I think Tucker will be the first player from 2012 draft to make it and I think it will be in July 2015.

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    • Old pro always respect your insight, I just keep triyng to figure out why you are so high on Tucker? Is he more than a DH, looks a bit plump and slow when I’ve seen him.

      Correa ffor sure a no brainer. BIGGIO BIGGIO with more Pop
      Kemp very interesting,
      Teoscar could be for real
      VV I like a lot along with Hader
      Moran for now then Ruiz
      Appel better be for the $$$
      The rest who Knows crap shot

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      • I actually put Tucker in the lowest of the three categories. The reason I pick Tucker to be the first 2012 draftee to make it to the majors is because he is already the closest, with a half season at AAA, and because the Astros are going to need a bat next July when they make a trade. I’m absolutely sure they will trade a potential 2016 position salary in July and Tucker is indeed A BAT. That’s what he is. Tucker is a better fielder than Krauss, has a better arm and is truly slow, but he is a Luhnow player: power, OBP, decent K rate, has a good head on his shoulders and doesn’t get hurt! Even if he isn’t a long range outfielder for this team he is a power bat and I’m sure Luhnow would like to see him play some next summer if Fowler or Carter are moved.

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      • He did not look good at 1B in the one try there this year. I think he would need an entire offseason of fielding instruction to be able to play 1B.

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      • I agree with you on Tucker. He is a Luhnow type. He will probably get his opportunity sometime during the season next year – maybe as the first call up following the inevitable injury with our fragile outfield.

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  3. This is completely off the top of my head but it seems like the guys who don’t stumble when promoted or if they do recover quickly and then perform even better at the upper levels are the ones to watch. Springer was like that and of course Altuve. It looks like Tucker will fit that bill and probably Ruiz. I’m very meh about DDJ. Where is he going to play? Kemp would probably play a competent LF if you’re looking for a table setter in the outfield and lacks the attitude. Would you keep DDJ instead of Tucker? I don’t think so. DDJ looks like trade bait to me. With his physical talent his progress has been pretty slow pointing to problems with make up and approach. Also I found it telling that as soon as Teoscar arrived in CC DDJ got shipped to LF. Hmmm, perhaps putting a better center fielder in center field is a concept the major league team should do?

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    • Bill, the way the question is worded is the key: “spending considerable time in the majors”. That allowed me to pick out the players who play key positions, It allowed the flexibitlity of spending the considerable time in the majors with the Astros or any other team.It allowed consideration of being a bullpen guy AND a starter. As examples:
      Correa has a great arm and great bat control. He could be a flop at SS and still make a good COF, 3B, 1B. He could break a leg and still be a DH.
      Folty might not make it as a starter. but I think he is a can’t miss reliever.
      Hader is a lefty with a wicked lefty who I think would make hime a can’t miss loogy.
      Moran and Ruiz both have hitting skills and decent gloves, which I think would translate to #B at the very least and can’t miss 1B or DH somewhere in the majors.
      DDJ has elite speed and can play OF or 2B in a pinch and has a decent bat. I think he is going to be, at the minimum, a valuable utility player for years, maybe for several teams.
      Kemp has fabulous on base skills, plays out field and 2b, excellent speed. Demand for guys like him will keep him in the bigs for years.
      I was allowed to put 20 prospects in three different categories with tons of leeway. That is what I did and it was fun.
      Stassi is a young defensive catcher with some power. I think that gives him a “good chance” of hanging in the majors for years.

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    • Well okay, if Correa isn’t a superstar he will be considered a miss. But I think his make up will make him a superstar.

      As talented as they are all others on the list have flaws that, if they fail to overcome them, we will look back without surprise.

      I think Nitro, Kemp, and Tucker have the best chance to fulfill their potential.

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      • I agree with oldpro that Tropeano has a very good shot. He’ll very likely make it.

        McCullers will rebound, but he’s still a few years off.

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  5. I don’t think we have any can’t miss offensive prospects outside Correa. If what I’ve read is accurate, he brings the intangibles and leadership ability that could make him the next Biggio or Bagwell.
    I am a firm believer in Strom, however, and believe if he has access to them you will see Appel and Emanuel as big league starters for an extended number of years. I’m not sure there is a single guy I would say must be protected or he will turn into the next Johan Santana.

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    • You’re probably right about the Johan Santana thing, but how many teams wouldn’t want a 21 year old 2B who hit .298, .345obp with a phenomenal 5% K rate at AAA. Then throw in real good defense at 2B and the fact he is 5’10” and now only weighs 150 lbs and he can also play SS, 3B and OF.
      At 5.6 years younger than his league average, with those stats in AAA you are going to lose a guy like Ronald Torreyes if you don’t protect him. If he picks up a little next year in the extra base hit category with some strength work and 10 pounds of muscle you just might have a MLB 2B there.. We don’t need a MLB 2B, but a bunch of clubs do. Rather than let somebody take him for free, I think you must protect an asset like that, even if it’s to trade him in the near future.

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      • I agree – you have to protect him. Versatile players are always in demand. Look at Nick Punto – he can’t really hit much, but keeps getting multi- million $ contracts. This is also why Marwin is so valuable to us.

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      • Torreyes isn’t worth protecting over a as many as 10 others that need it. He doesn’t walk alot, he isn’t particularly fast. I dont’ see him as a major league starting 2B at any point. Yes, he is almost impossible to strike out, and that may get him into the league, but if that he is only redeeming quality than you have JB Shuck without the walks.

        Defensively he maybe a wizard though, honestly I have no idea. I know when you are listed at 5-10 and you are only 150 lbs, you should be spending your days in the weight room and your nights at the Outback.

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      • Stephen, the Lancaster Jethawks got beaten last night by a 26 year-old pitcher who was drafted in 2008. What the heck is a guy like that doing in High A?
        On the exact opposite end of the scale is Torreyes, a starting infielder on a AAA team at the age of 21. That right there is a REAL redeeming value! He hit .298 at a very young age in AAA and his BABIP was right in line with the average at .310. His low weight is exactly why I think he has a bunch of upside as a MLB 2B. His defensive metrics are good. He hits for average at a ridiculous age and doesn’t strike out or walk. So teach him some patience.
        We think differently on Torreyes.

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      • Differently on him we do. He is no Altuve. His average is up and down. This year its good, next year it may not be .300. They don’t have pitch trax in the minors (yet) so his contract rates are a guess, I am guessing they are good, but not great. He has no power, and is 22. The best he will develop this far in is pedestrian power. He doesn’t like to walk. That’s unlikely to improve. He is no faster or better baserunner than other prospects – and he is useless to you if he can’t bat top of the order.

        If you offer to me that he is a decent prospect, and a good farm hand to have in your system, I agree. If you offer to me that he warrants a 40 man spot in a tight group, and that I would need to leave a 23 year old catcher that can play great D, walk a little, and at least hit .255-.260 (as has been done at least at every level), I would disagree. Protecting Perez, Velasquez, Tucker, etc., is just more important.

        Heck, you know I am not in the Jake from State Farm fan club, but I would keep Marisnick over Torreyes. Maybe, in the end probably not, but maybe even KRAUSS. Yes, there, I said it.

        I do find this very entertaining though! Who knows what Luhnow does, but I am guessing that Torreyes doesn’t fit Luhnow’s profile either.

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      • Luhnow traded specifically for Torreyes, giving up 2 high international bonus slots to the Cubs worth over $784,000 for Torreyes and nobody else. Based on that, I suggesting he does fit Luhnows profile. That happened in July of 2013, barely over a year ago. Torreyes turned 22 on Sept 2nd meaning his age 22 season is next year. The only reason I suggested not protecting Perez this year is because he wasn’t protected last year.
        I also suggested protecting Velasquez, Feliz, DDJ, and a couple of others, including Torreyes. I culled Perez because Luhnow left him unprotected last year. I find it hard to believe Luhnow would target Torreyes a year ago for a bunch of slot money, watch him have a good year in AAA and then offer him to anybody for $50 grand.

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      • Good game sir, I have been outresearched. Given that intel, I would say its safe to say he will protect him. Not saying I would, I wouldn’t over a few others, but given that information then yes, I believe he will.

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      • Great question, Flash. If you are going to keep someone on the major league roster from the rule 5 draft for a full year, it would probably be a 22 year-old 2B who hit .298 in AAA last year and who also played SS, 3B, and CF and who only struck out 25 times in 519 plate appearances. Super utility guy who can pinch hit and not strike out and who is a terrific bunter. His righty/lefty, home/away splits are pretty even and he only had 3 plate appearances against younger pitchers, so he won’t be intimidated by his youthfulness. He also had 46 rbis hitting mostly from the leadoff slot.

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      • So OP, I don’t really have a dog in the fight. I don’t know that much about him. I don’t get the feeling that he is considered ML ready. Pitchers are more easily stashed on the ML roster. How does he compare to say Marwin Gonzalez when he was in the minors? You don’t see many guys like that stick, Marwin of course being an unexceptional exception.

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    • Noone thought Johan Santana was can’t miss either.

      I would keep an eye on Velasquez. If he isn’t protected and another team does what the Twins did with Santana, draft him and suck it up for a year or two, he could pay dividends.

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  6. There is one positive here gents and ladies – we are finally at a point where there is real discussion on who belongs on the 40 man roster. We actually have enough talent where other teams may be interested in our folks. That is a step up from where we have been for sure.

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    • I could see that happening with a low level pitcher as you can put him in the pen all year and give him some occassional, low-pressure appearances. At the end of the year he is yours and you can send him to the minors.

      I have a question for Chip. How does the AA and AAA rule V draft work? If you pluck someone from A ball who is not on the 40 man roster are there any requirements on where he must play the next year. Is an A ball player picked required to pitch at the AA level or above for his new team? I hope I explained this clearly.

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      • Hey Tim, stepping in after flying all day. The AAA and AA rounds work just like the major league round. In the AAA phase, a team may take a player left off the major league 40-man roster and the roster (I think it’s 38 players) of the AAA roster. Same at AA: Anyone not on the AAA roster and the AA roster are eligible for the AA portion of the draft.

        Cost for picking a AAA player is $12,000, cost for AA player is $4,000.

        The Astros actually participated in all three phases last year. Generally, as I understand it, the AAA and AA phases are used to provide depth for a team at a specific position rather than trying to find a diamond in the rough.

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      • Thanks Chip. So, if I understand correctly, a player picked in the AA/AAA draft must also remain on the major league roster all year.

        Did I understand you correctly?

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      • Tim, I am no expert, but the way the rules read to me is there is a draft for the MLB team of players still in the minors (Rule 5). Those selections have to stay on the ML team roster all year or be offered back to their team for a half the money. Then there is a subsequent draft for AAA players that are in AA or lower. Then a AA draft for players in A or lower. I do not see where a player has to stay in AAA or AA for the entire year -but that may also apply.

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  7. Agree Dan – plenty of intriguing looks will be taken for once. Did we even lose anyone last year?

    I think if we don’t protect Carlos Perez we will lose him. Some may say good riddance, but I suspect now that Krauss has some of the early jitters out and has some major league time he will get snagged when he gets taken off the 40 man – which is inevitable given how much more we have to protect. Its also unfortunate that Velasquez missed a season when he did, but it counts. If we lose him I’m afraid we will be regetting that for the next 15 years.

    So many others. Maybe you let DDJ go. I would be working the phones like crazy trying to get something, anything, for most of these guys, particularly some very young minor leaguers that are not in that window yet, or packaging them for some mid level pitching prospect.

    We can preach on Luhnow’s first rounders all we want, and while no first rounders are sure things just because they are first rounders, Luhnow’s record has been unexceptional. In the end though, its these moments, the 40 man rosters, rule 5 drafts, and picking the right personnel to hand a field manager that will decide his future. Just looking at the draft positions of Sunday’s starting lineup is insane. There are more undrafted players than 1st rounders!

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    • Steven – We did not lose anyone in last year’s Rule 5.

      OK here is another question – can you actually trade a player who is eligible for the Rule 5? Does the restriction go away when they get traded? Because if the next team has to put them on the 40 man to keep them – that probably drops their attractiveness.

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      • No, but I try and trade them now, before the season is over – he has to have at least an idea of what direction he is wanting to go with most of them.

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      • Well dumbly I forgot that little detail called waivers and a trade deadline. Maybe he already has a good idea of what he wants to do.

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      • Dan, if I understand your question, the answer is yes. The keep-them-on-the-roster mandate applies for the entire year, regardless of trade. In fact, the Astros made a selection last December and then shipped him off to San Diego, which had to keep Patrick Schuster on the roster the entire year.

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  8. Agreed, Dan. When our biggest problem is trying to find space on our 40-man roster and worrying about which bit of our wealth of depth and talent to trade, this is why I believe in Luhnow.

    Has he made mistakes? Lord, yes. I think he took too big a chance with Aiken, and once that pick was made, he should have paid $5 million. I think taking a gamble on an injured arm at closer was too big a chance to take. I think Springer was ready from day one. I think Guzman was a mistake, but I’m sure even Guzman would admit that now. And many other mistakes I don’t want to bother naming.

    But this organization is ready to win. We’re about $15-$20 million from the playoffs. Sign a third baseman. Sign a healthy bullpen.

    Get a good in-game manager. Sadly, despite all the wins, I don’t think that’s Tom Lawless.

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    • Chip – I think it is too small a sample to say Lawless is or is not the guy.
      But I agree – with your philosophy of adding 2 or 3 guys a year – they are a lot closer to good. A solid rotation is a foundation that they can ride a long ways in my opinion.

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  9. Looking at your list of draftees that have played in the majors – the best one at this point is Bud Norris, who is a middle of the road starter. Second? Keuchel or JDM I guess. Not a lot happening there – a lot of fringe folks. Springer may well be the best of them all.

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  10. Speaking of prospects, the Quad City River Cats, and Lancaster Jet Hawks play for their championship series tonight! Go River Cats, and Jet Hawks!!

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  13. For those of you not counting at home, that’s 67 wins with 12 to go. We have three more at home against the Tribe. Then three against the Mariners at MMP. Then we go on the road to Arlington for three and, after an off day, end with three in NY against the Mets.

    If we win one of three for each remaining threesome, that’s 71 wins. If we win two of three in two of them (going .500 the rest of the way), that’s 73 wins … meaning we lose less than 90.

    Now the Rangers should be good for two wins, and the M’s one. That means we need three wins total from our remaining six against the Mets and Indians. The way Houston is playing now, I think that’s quite doable.

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  14. The Lancaster Jethawks beat Visalia Monday night, 10-2 and won the California League Championship. Only 8 players finished the year who started the year there because of so many promotions.
    As a side note, after Visalia beat Lancaster last night, Carlos Correa caught an early morning flight out of Florida and surprised his teammates in the locker room. He was asked to throw out the first pitch and got to spend the game in the dugout and celebrate with them after the game.
    Reliever Tyler Brunneman was named MVP of the series. Brunneman was the 40th round pick of the Astros in the 2013 draft out of Hardin-Simmons University in Abilene. He won a ring with Tri City last year and started this season at Quad Cities.
    How about a 40th round pick leaving his mark in an organization quickly?
    Congratulations to the Jethawks
    By the way, Rio Ruiz had a really good playoffs at the plate, again.

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    • Brunnemann was really good for QC, and than also fantastic for Lancaster after the promotion. I didn’t know anything about him prior to the year, but he had a 0.89 WHIP for the year with 69 K’s in just under 62 IP with only 4 HR allowed.

      That’s awesome news on Correa being there. He seems like a great young man, and it was obvious what his teammates thought of him prior to the injury.

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  15. Oldpro…….you just MADE MY DAY!!! I’m sooo happy for the Jet Hawks, and having Correa there meant a LOT to these guys! Clap, clap, clap!

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  16. Brunneman came into the game in relief of Kyle Westwood in the top of the fifth with two runners on and nobody out and Lancaster leading 4-2. He retired all nine batters he faced in order with six strikeouts and when he left, after pitching three innings, the JetHawks led 10-2.
    One note on the game: Roberto Pena caught for the Jethawks and won a championship ring last night. He won a ring in Tri City in 2012, a ring with Quad Cities last year and now one in Lancaster. How about one in Corpus Christi next year?
    In Lancaster’s game wrap after the game it was revealed that the players were stunned about Correa flying all the way across the country to be with them in the middle of his rehab. The players made sure to mention the fact that they were very motivated by the job Correa, Kemp, and Teoscar and all of the players who put Lancaster in a position to win and had then been promoted. The players said they felt obligated to win after the players who had moved on to CC left them with a playoff slot and especially by Correa, who is still listed on their roster as injured.
    Rodney Linares asked Correa during the game to go down the bench and settle Ruiz down after Ruiz had committed an error that cost the team a run. Linares called 20 year old Correa and extra coach on the bench. Ruiz was very good for the rest of the game.

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  17. Man iIsure hope the Houston Altuvestros get him some help next year . A consistent .275 bat at first and 3rd with average pop and we might win 82.

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