FREE blog weekend: Maybe Crane was right and how ’bout that Carter?

Nothing better than a day off after a new manager gets two wins under his belt and the Astros ponder their future.

Maybe, just maybe, Jim Crane was right?

  • While it wasn’t an outright prediction, Crane suggested last spring the Astros could be a .500 team in 2014. At 61-79, if you factor in 12 blown saves and a few other missed opportunities, you could easily find 5-7 games the team shoulda, coulda won. Yes, those wins/losses go both ways, but the Astros have had more than their share of bad than good luck this year. Without pointing out — again — Jeff Luhnow’s hits and misses, add a full season from Matt Albers, Dexter Fowler and even George Springer (just the time he’s missed on the DL) and the Astros easily could have made up much of the difference. Even then, if they split the remaining 22 games, the team finishes 72-90, a 21-game improvement over 2013.
  • Yes, it may pain you to even consider thinking that Crane was right, but the team assembled on paper in March and April could have approached .500 in 2014.

Just how good has Chris Carter been?

  • In the second half of the season (43 games), Carter has hit .274/.339/.610 with 16 HRs and 42 RBI. Folks, over a full season, that projects to 60 HRs and 158 RBI. That qualifies as hot! There has been much speculation as to the immediate, quick turnaround, but little credit has been given to any specific individual or coach. With his numbers the past two years, the first-year arbitration DH should be a prime target for a multi-year contract. Maybe 3 years, $10-$12 million?

Three first-round picks…

  • Okay, technically, the Astros will have two first round (both likely top ten) picks in the 2015 draft, but they’ll also have the 31st pick in the draft thanks to the Jarred Cosart trade. Florida was awarded the first slot in the Competitive Balance process, which is the first pick after the conclusion of the first round. Want to get a taste of the players who might be available with those three picks? Check here.

On the radar.

What else would you like to chat about? Here’s your chance to set the agenda with the Free Blog Weekend!

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83 responses to “FREE blog weekend: Maybe Crane was right and how ’bout that Carter?”

  1. OK – here is my shot.
    Crane – The Astros with Lucas Harrell in the rotation and without adding George Springer to the lineup and not having Qualls as the closer out of ST was not a threat to .500. The team they have put on the field since mid-May has been close to .500 and would be over it with just a smidgen of bullpen help.
    Carter – On the radio they were saying he has 22 HRs in his last 51 games which is just under 66 HR pace. In the second half he is chunking out a dinger once every 10 ABs and 35% of his hits in the second half are HRs.
    Hey, like I wrote yesterday – he did a great job Wednesday night – he seems to be doing a much better job of getting bat on ball and when he gets bat on ball – look out.
    Draft – After last draft debacle – I can’t get fired up for the next one.
    Changes – McHugh and Sipp added for nothing, a 1/2 season tease of Springer, the new much improved Dallas Keuchel, the new much improved Jose Altuve – the fall off Castro and Dominguez, the disappointment from the bullpen (we were thinking it would be improved back in the spring), flashes of Oberholtzer and recently flashes of Peacock – things do change quickly and unexpectedly in this game.

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    • Dan, keep in mind, I said “on paper”. In March, we all thought that Albers and Qualls would be a plus in the pen for a full season and that Jesse Crain would be back as early as May. The general consensus was also that — at some point early in April or May — both of the heavy-hitting prospects (Springer and Singleton) — would join the team in the middle-of-the-order. Also, there was reason to believe that Jason Castro and Dominguez would pick up where they left off in 2013 and be improved. Sure, there were some Harrells and .500 was indeed a tall order, but it shouldn’t have been an unreasonable expectation. Even now, where do you think the win/loss would be today if Fowler and Springer had full seasons?

      Not to mention they’ve actually played at .500 for the last third of the season (49 games): 24-25.

      Look, not arguing on the point, just saying it may not have been such a far-out thought that .500 was possible.

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  2. I guess in my mind’s eye – a 30 game swing (51 wins to 81 wins) seemed like a pie in the sky prediction – too much has to go right to do that.
    So did this .500 “prediction” help push Crane to back the firing of Porter?
    Fowler and Springer would have helped some – but the bullpen probably would have still been blowing games left and right. They needed two of Crain, Albers and Qualls to come through – and they only got one of them.

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  3. I’m not sure if it is fair to play the “speculate if” game, because If Texas hadn’t lost half of their starters, their closer and six of their eight position players, we probably wouldn’t have near as many wins against them.
    Even so, going into next year we are in so much better shape financially than other teams in the AL, we really have a chance to add to our team, move up a couple of prospects who are ready and position some important prospects to be close to being on the team in 2016.
    I’m ready to find out what Luhnow’s next moves look like.
    Carter’s second half has given the Astros more time to look at Tucker and season him more, but it also puts individual pressure on Tucker because he is not going to waltz into the DH now. Carter has pretty much locked it down for next spring, unless somebody offers us a ton for his bat.
    Trading for Carter and then hanging onto him is a terrific job by Luhnow. In an interview the other day Carter talked about having fun playing baseball. That is something he has never spoken about openly, up until now. He is feeling at home and relaxed. It would be nice if Singleton could start having fun and relaxing.

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    • Old pro – Carter having fun is an interesting quote – he certainly has seemed like a very quiet reserved guy – sometimes those folks come across as not caring, but a lot of time they are just a bit on the shy side. If you hit home runs every 10 ABs like he has been doing in the second half – it means you get everyone in the dugout coming by after you do it and giving you a boost and same thing in the locker room. Man I would be having fun too – if the ball flew that far when you barely touch it.

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  4. As I’ve been saying I don’t really care much for Crane or Lunhoie.. I will never give either any credit or blame anymore , done with that. Team has improved dramatically from the last 2 years, add some bullpen, get the right MGR, couple kids make a jump, mature a bit awesome. Upgrade at 3rd, I think we might be stuck with Castro at least till mid 2015. I can see 80-82 next year. 3 draft picks is not going to hurt the long term future Dugh! Lets win the series in Oakland.

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  5. Since we are revising history, OP this is for you. Imagine we had us an oldtime-baseball-GM. How much better would we be?

    C – Jason Castro
    1B – Chris Carter
    2B – Jose Altuve
    3B – Chris Johnson
    SS – Jio Mier
    LF – JD Martinez
    RF – Carl Crawford
    CF – George Springer
    DH – Kendrys Morales

    Bud Norris
    Jordan Lyles
    JA Happ
    Edwin Jackson
    Mark Buerle

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    • With that pitching staff I would be out chewing on barbed wire fences by now. And the thought of Mills as manager would have me wrestling gators.

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      • I love Carlos Correa. If Wade had stayed GM we would have taken Buxton. Wade would not have thought of Correa and would not have done business with Boras(Appel). He would have kept Cosart because Cosart was his guy.
        The barbed wire chewing was because of Norris, Lyles and Happ. Those were three nightmare pitchers to watch. When they were on the mound I wanted to burn my eyes out. Seriously, it was torture. When those three guys were in the rotation, I almost quit the Astros.

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    • Melancon has been good in Pitt. I’m probably in the minority, but if Crawford and Morales are healthy I see that as an above .500 team. I’m not sure you wouldn’t have Cosart or Keuchel in that starting five though. Actually, give me a few hours and I’ll talk myself into that lineup competing for a WC spot.

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  6. Too much of the what if game. Every team can play it. Our bullpen was awful, as is the case with most bad teams.

    Missed yesterdays fun Marisnick/Grossman chatter. My take is simple – Grossman doesn’t help you in a lot of areas UNLESS he is getting significant playing time that allows that OBP to become a big factor. Marisnick has a lot of upside in a lot of areas, but in all honesty at 550-600 plate appearances his lack of getting on base and pedestrian power will hurt more than his defense helps you.

    If you basically play them both next year – with Grossman getting the starting nod in LF and Marisnick swinging around all 3 positions – you can accentuate their strengths and hide their weaknesses. Left field is not that demanding, especially in MMP – Marisnick will still see innings in CF and RF – significant ones given the durability of the two starters – and can spell Grossman at times also. Marisnick also provides an athletic presence that can pinch run, or even pinch hit at times. Having him on the roster is a win, but having him get a lot of at bats is not. I would hope the Astros find ways to creatively get him on the field while keeping his plate appearances down around 300-350.

    To be honest, given minor league track records, I would rather give at bats to Krauss given a significant injury to Fowler or Springer next year than Marisnick.

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    • Steven,

      I’m not seeing what you are in Krauss’ minor league numbers vs. Grossman. With the exception of a slight edge in power numbers, Grossman seems better across the board. What am I missing?

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    • steven, marisnick only has 261 mlb plate appearances. way too early to tell what kind of hitter he will be. if he improves at the plate, a better option than krauss or grossman.

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      • But he has 3+ years of minor league time – we already he is allergic to the walk and has pedestrian power. Flash – my comment was vouching Krauss over Marisnick not Grossman. I expect Grossman is the teams LF’er next year, full time. If Fowler or Springer miss significant time, DL type time – and the Astros turn to a callup to replace them while on the DL, I would prefer to see Marisnick stay in his role and that callup, like Krauss, get the at bats, with Marisnick peppered in.

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    • That’s what is great about this discussion. We are opposite on Grossman/Marisnick. I want Mallee to work with Jake because Grossman won’t ever be close to his equal in the field. I know Grossman walks but I think Marisnick will see improvement with the bat and he is so good in CF. Jake has an arm that players will not run on and they will run on Robbie’s arm.

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      • Willy T was also great in the field.

        Dan pointed this out yesterday – but I’ll add my two on it – great defense is great, but if your UZR/150 is 20, you are gold glove caliber, you save 20 runs over an average player over 150 games. Meanwhile in that 150 games, which means they will go stretches of weeks without it making an impact due to lack of opportunity for it to do so, Grossman is on base literally 40-45 times more often.

        None of this is definitive. Marisnick may get better – he has posted as high as 8-9% walk rates in significant playing time before. There has to be cause for concern though given that every promotion has seen that rate decrease – as the pitchers got better he couldn’t work them as well. Grossman has been inconsistent in his actual hitting – but he has continued to draw walks at a great rate.

        I know Krauss has his doubters – and he has earned them through terrible major league play – but you look at his minor league numbers, if you took the fact out that we haven’t watched Marisnicks worst – that luxury belonged to Marlins fans – you would have to surmise, given a season of 450 plate appearances, Krauss would outperform as a hitter. Noone is going to deny that Krauss is a horrible fielder, and even probably a horrible guy to have on the bench in that he doesn’t create match up nightmares for opposing managers to worry about, but when it actually comes to standing in the box in a given at bat, he should make positive things happen more than Marisnick.

        Needless to say I am no Jake Marisnick fan, but I don’t deny his atheticism and fielding – he has his role. I just think its not as a starting outfielder, especially when your best outfielder plays his best when he is penciled in his natural position.

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    • If all 3 players perform like their minor league numbers I would take Grossman, but if we are to use the short sample size of the major league numbers, because of his exceptional defense, I would take Marisnick. Krauss is strictly a bench player, if that. He has a bit more power, but horrible defensively and strikes out too much.

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    • I am not 100% ready to give up on Hoes. Most on here wanted to give up on Grossman 3 months ago. Hoes had great plate discipline in the minors so I am willing to give him more time, but have no problem dumping Krauss and Guzman.

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  8. First let me tell you, I’m going to be alright. I have been in the hospital for a week, and with the help of modern medicine, and good doctors, I’m ok. When I get my strength back, I’ll join the conversation again. You boys have been busy in the last week! God bless you fellas. Becky

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  11. We miss you when you are not here Becky – glad you are doing better. We did have a Nance sighting while you were out, which was nice….

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  12. I was concerned about you Becky. Would have been quiet around here without you, but Tim picked up the slack. It’s been Jake from State Farm Week.

    Re the outfield, I think Luhnow will do something to create more offense for 2015. No doubt Marisnick is far superior defensively than Grossman, but neither guy will win a job out there without more offensive production. So, whether Luhnow brings someone in or gives four or five guys a shot to win a job this spring, it should be fun to watch. I just hope Fowler is with us. He really impacts the top of the order in a good way.

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  13. Well, well. Stop the presses. Ron Washington has resigned as the Rangers’ manager. No big deal, you say? Perhaps, but the Rangers have named bench coach Tim Bogar as the interim, which could take him out of the possible running to become the Astros’ manager.

    Hmmmmm.

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  16. My husband rushed me to the ER last Friday, with Colitis. I have been on a clear liquid died, and an arm full of IV’s until this afternoon. I am now trying to “shake hands” with food again, and it’s tough. I had three doc’s, and non of them knew just what to do with me! I’m a tough old gal, and I told my “gut” man this morning, hell would freeze over before I had another upper GI again. So……..I’ll be glad to sleep in my own bed tonight! As for the on going drama in Arlington, I would think there would be more jumping ship. I *love* Bogar, but Jon Daniels is a hard man to work for. What do you bet Nolan has something up his sleeve about this? I’m tired, you guys take care, and thanks for remembering me!

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    • Glad you’re OK Becky. Was wondering where you were, it’s not like you to miss out on the juicy stuff!
      My husband suffers from Colitis so I’m aware of your misery. Rest and get well real soon.

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    • Good to have you back Becky! Maybe we can have a discussion about whether Becky’s doctors are doing an adequate job, and if not, who we think could replace them.

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  17. Miami cooking agrees with Cosart. Another good outing tonight. Dominant for 6. Gave up 3 runs in 7th and 8th. Nothing against Strom – he has worked magic with Keuchel and McHugh – but it appears that the pitching game plan and pitch sequence in Miami is a better fit for Cosart’s style of pitching. 6 Ks, 1 BB. Happy to see a young man from the local area do well.

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    • He is pitching with a chip on his shoulder. He never seemed to be happy pitching for his hometown team. We’ll see how he fares after a couple of bad outings. Anyway, I am glad to see him doing well.

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  18. How about Castro?
    Well so far tonight he is 2 for 3 with his 36th HR and 3 RBIs giving them a 4-3 lead after 6 innings.
    On the 2 run homer when we were down by 1 – he worked an 0-2 count to a full count before launching one. Look up in fuego in the dictionary and there is Carter’s picture.

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  20. Lancaster begins their Cal League semifinal series tomorrow night against inland Empire. It’s a best of 5
    Tri City plays State College Sunday night in the opener of their best of 3 series for the NY/Penn League Championship.

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  21. A terrific come from behind win for the Astros tonight. Carter Altuve and Singleton with the offense. Ober, Veras and Sipp with the good pitching. Oakland fighting for a playoff spot gets beaten by the ‘stros at Oakland. Five wins in a row. 62 wins for the year. 62-79. Lawless still undefeated. Twins lose tonight dropping a full game behind Houston.

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    • I predicted at the beginning of the year we’d win 70 and few agreed. Now, I’m wondering if i sold them short. Think 75 is possible?

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      • Probably 72 Billy, a 21 game improvement. I don’t think anyone can reasonably disagree the team is greatly improved. Now, the next 21 game improvement will be a bit more difficult.

        It is also nice that the first team we met on our way up was the Rangers, on their way down.

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      • Flash, that’s the sweetest thing for me, aside from how awesome it would be if the Rangers lost 100 four years in a row.

        In order to win 72 games, we’d have play ‘only’ .500 the rest of the way. Pretty sweet.

        Can you guys imagine how good we’ll be with Springer back, and when Correa arrives for good in 2016?!

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  22. I just read where they will be adding Tropeano to what will be a 6 man rotation. He will be starting against Seattle next week.

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  23. So I’m following the game on ESPN’s Gamecast because it doesn’t freeze up on me as much as other sites, and when the count gets to 0-2 on Carter they show he is hitting something like .120 this year on an 0-2 count.
    He fouls off three pitches amidst taking three balls and I just get the feeling that after seeing eight pitches, he must have a good measure on Jeff Smjardwhatever. Then Gamecast shows the pitch coming to the plate and the trajectory of the reenactment of the flight of the ball just keeps carrying and finally it stops and a blue circle appears. I’m waiting to find out what that means and all of a sudden the yellow dots are circling the bases and then the screen explodes with the words “Chris Carter homers to left center.”
    I’m just amazed at how he has turned it around in the second half. He’s gone from helpless to howitzer and the team has gone from bad to good in his wake.

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    • Now that was a Home Run by Carter! I would be fun if Astros could knock A’s out of the hunt with contributions from the A’s ex-players. Especially after they gave up on Carter and Peacock too soon? LOL.

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      • With Stassi in the Astros dugout, all three players we got in that deal are in the majors currently. Why do I have a feeling that Stassi could really break out next year? Oh yeah, because Max has only averaged 300 PA’s in his minor league career and still has 500 less PA’s than Singleton did in the minors. Plus he’s learning the primo defensive position in baseball, major league catcher. Stassi could make that trade a monster for the Astros.

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      • And Lowrie is playing like garbage too. I love the As (my third favorite team after the Astros and Cardinals) but i’m digging this.

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    • Much more fun to watch this club when we’ve got a guy that can do what Carter is doing, along with a batting champ who will steal 60 bases at an 85 plus percent rate. And then we’ve got a batch of pitchers that are really pitching well, highlighted last night by a two inning save. A novel approach that I did not see in the last managers playbook.

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  25. I always liked Cosart, but some of the good ones are going to be moved and it’s too early to grade the trade. Keep in mind that Cosart changed leagues and he’s going through the league for the first time. The real story will start to come into focus next year when Cosart goes through the league a second and third time…AND, when the futures of Moran and Marisnick come better into focus. Not to mention how that #31 pick turns out.

    Case in point, check in on Jordan Lyles, who started out gang busters for Colorado, but has come back to earth, most recently allowing 6 runs earlier this week.

    All that said, I wish Cosart the best!

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  26. Chip, I’m not grading the Cosart trade with my comment. Our Astros definitely got a huge haul. It was intended more as an observation that there is no one universal approach to pitching (or hitting for that matter) that works for everybody. What works for some doesn’t work for others. That is best explanation I can come up with for why players that have “failed” elsewhere come here and succeed and vice versa. I do not think it can always be attributed to “clubhouse atmosphere”. That does not mean there is something wrong with the coach or the player if the approach isn’t a fit. Lyles is a good case in point, but remember, he is coming back from an injury that caused him to miss significant time.

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    • Just to add to this. We only get to see the Astros when they play the Rangers. So very small sample. However, Carter has gone from swinging like Maxwell to being under control and quicker to the ball. Keuchel has gone from a thrower to a pitcher that is looking 2-3 pitches ahead. So we can praise the coaching and also the fact these two (and others) have been coachable. (Unlike the Brant Alyea quote: “I know how I hit better than Ted Williams”)

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    • Not a surprise to me. That team had talent, underperformed, Bodie appeared to be unhappy, and there were a ton of pitching issues this year there that were organizational. I read something in the last week that didn’t fit and led me to believe that both he and Tony D could be moving on. I don’t remember what it was. It could have been in that Trembley interview.

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  28. So today Feldman is pitching well, Altuve gets a big double to put them ahead and they intentionally walk Carter (which may start happening more and more). Oh and Villar made another error that led to a run.

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  30. Guzman waves at the first hit, Fowler (and I don’t want to start up the centerfield thread again) had no idea where the ball off the wall was going and as already noted, Presley showed that he does not have a major league arm. Dan, I don’t think it was a four bouncer, it was more like a four dribbler. We’ve still got work to do! I was hoping for Foltynewicz in the 9th.

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  31. No one who has had the success Qualls has had against the league can be this bad against a single team, every time he faces them. Someone in Oakland’s organization has obviously figured out Qualls’ ‘tells’. They were just waiting – salivating – for Lawless to put him in. Lawless surprised them with Sipp yesterday. Maybe de Leon or Folty next time?

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  34. Well Billy C – Qualls has a 1.46 ERA in 43.6 innings against the whole league (except the A’s).
    If I’m calculating right – he has a 27 ERA in 4 innings against the A’s. So I lean towards what Mr. Bill is saying about Oakland figured out he is tipping something.

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    • Yeah, but how many inherited runners do he let score, which wouldn’t affect his ERA? Maybe I’m still annoyed with him.from his first stint, where it seemed like he always gave up a key hit at the worst possible time. Reminds me of Wilton Lopez in that regard, where the ERA only told part of the story.

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