Astros: Reputability and integrity must precede on-field respectability

It’s time now for another episode of your story: As the Astros’ Turn.

Geez, can we all just talk some baseball? Whether or not Carter should be hitting third or fourth? Who should have pitched the ninth? Who should be called up Monday? Whether the team will non-tender this guy or extend that guy?

The discussion of how the team has improved and could be looking at an 18-20 game improvement over 2013 regularly is regularly drowned out by the latest leak, rumor, communique or whisper of a “he said, she said”. Which seems to always end up dying down with a pass-the-buck “no comment” or “I don’t know, talk to him” or “I was there, but I wasn’t listening” or “yes, we’re all in this together” unofficial/official statement.

It’s time for the Houston Astros to grow up. The honeymoon is over. So is the crawling stage.

Fans and other onlookers were fine in 2012 and even 2013 watching a rebuilding organization bumbling along and were even tolerant of mistakes from a first-time owner, first-time general manager, first-time manager, first-time major league players, first-time fans, first-time front office staff and first-time AL team.

Now, it’s time for the Astros to just grow up. Would someone please step up to the plate, take charge and drive the boat?

Why do these persistent rumors, innuendo and gossip-like reports, well, persist? Can it be that there is no one at the helm? That there are too many silos within the organization? That management isn’t on the same page?

Geez. Most of this could be stopped if someone would be a little more transparent and not leave all the speculation to the media, enemies, disgruntled employees and distant sportswriters.

It’s just time for the Astros to grow up!

All the discussion over Luhnow’s tandem pitching, Porter’s lineups and bullpen decisions and scrubs, AAAA players and winter speculation is moot if — IF — management is pulling in different directions.

Where is Nolan Ryan in the loop? Is Craig Biggio part of the discussion? These guys are advisers, no? Too often in 2014, we’ve had to use phrases like “damage control”, “blunders”, “fiasco” and now we’re turning to “rift”, “heated” and “tension”.

Ken Rosenthal, who started the latest reporting of the internal skirmish (oh, there’s another word), wrote: “it’s difficult to imagine the Astros starting the 2015 season with the same management team.”

Think I’ve mentioned this before, but it’s time for the Astros to just grow up.

So, if anyone is leaving, who’s the odd man out? Jim Crane ain’t going anywhere, so you can forget that. As I’ve suggested before, it’s unlikely Jeff Luhnow is leaving since he’s hired virtually the entire front office and his firing would result in another dozen or so departures and foretell another starting over process.

If there is a change, the most likely to exit is Bo Porter. And, yes, it’s the cheapest way out for the Astros and would cause the least ripple effect on the organization.

The biggest admission for an organization that has endured countless PR debacles and continued mistrust among fans, the media and others is that it can’t seem to get the right team in place. Can someone say synergy?

Still, this is Crane’s organization. This is Luhnow’s team. Houston has sent dozens of long-time employees packing and has hired virtually everyone one from top to bottom now. When you look at the Astros’ staff, few have been part of the organization longer than 3 years. How many names do you recognize?

So the question no longer seems “should the Astros do something”, but “what should the Astros do?” Before the Astros reach respectability on the field, the Astros will need to restore reputation and integrity, both inside and outside the organization.

And that will require some growing up. Jim, pull the trigger.

So what say you?

  • Who goes: Luhnow, Porter or both?
  • Best candidate to take over as manager for 2015?
  • Are all these inner rumblings overblown? Just rumors?
  • Which has been Crane’s worst hire: George Postolos, Jeff Luhnow, Bo Porter, Reid Ryan or someone else?
  • Outside of the TV deal, what’s the #1 issue facing the Astros this off season?

 

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170 responses to “Astros: Reputability and integrity must precede on-field respectability”

  1. I thought this quote from Bo might be a foretelling: ” ….. And I’m going to do my job and focus on doing my job ’til the end of the season.”

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  2. I think Porter will go. Chip, you hit on a great point when you mentioned that firing Luhnow would mean a dozen or so people would have to be hired because he’s smartly stacked the deck with his guys. The object was to get rid of anyone who was not completely loyal the Plan, even if it wasn’t working.
    Best candidate for manager in 2015: Porter, with a bunch of players Nolan goes out and signs that actually fix problem holes in the lineup.
    How many of the inner rumblings of the last year turned out to be smoke and not fire?
    *The whole Ground Control thing was a forest fire.
    *The Aiken thing was a wildfire.
    *The Springer Debacle turned out to be true.
    *Not bringing up Singleton until he signed a contract unlike any other turned out to be true
    *The whole Appel fiasco really did happen, from his being mismanaged, wrongly placed, misdiagnosed, mispromoted, misused. Everything. And still he has the guts to come right out and tell the media that the tandem system was a huge part of his problem. I just love that he did that. I love that Tropeano came out and said what he thought happened to him in AA. That’s not smoke, that’s fire.
    *Do you really think Porter’s happy to get pitcher’s sent to him who get pounded, when guy’s like Folty and Tropeano sat all year in AAA and watched Jerome Williams pitch, and all the other pitchers get yoyoed up and down for different reasons and excuses.
    *Is the Astros record under Luhnow smoke or fire?
    *Outside of the TV deal, the biggest problem facing the Astros this season is credibility. Other than a few hundred blindly loyal disciples of the Plan, the Astros have no credibility. Not with the fans, not with the media and not with the players here or around the league.
    But I think a TV deal and a competent GM could turn it around quickly. I really do.

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  3. I don’t see any way Luhnow is let go at this point. As you mentioned, it would require the replacement of many other staff people as a new GM would want his people in place. I would be OK with Porter returning, but I think he will have to go. I would like to see them give Tony D. another chance at manager if Porter is gone, if his health is good. For me, I just want to see continued progression in the win column. We should end up around a 17 game improvement from last year. I think a .500 team should be a realistic goal for 2015 with an eye towards contending in 2016 and beyond. The worst hire, for me, is George Postolos.

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  4. Oh, and despite some issues I have with Luhnow, I think there are more fans on board with the rebuilding plan than some might think. The PR disasters have to be stopped, but many fans understand the player development growth that has happened in the minors was a must and, from most expert evaluations, a success.

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  5. Astros management is one of the strongest affirmations of the Peter principle I’ve ever seen. Crane might be a nice minority owner but being the top dog is more than he can handle. Luhnow would be a terrific scouting director but GM is over his head. Porter would be a good third base coach but field manager is WAY over his head. What compounds the problem is that there are folks in the lower levels of management who could probably do a better job. I think Tony D would be a major upgrade at manager and Nolan would be a major upgrade at GM.

    This debacle we see now goes all the way back to Drayton and his neglect of the farm system and jettisoning of veteran salaries to make the team more attractive to potential buyers. Then with the subsequent sale and move to the AL it was apparent that the buying group was under-capitalized but was so desperate to buy the team at almost any cost that future revenues were more a matter of fantasy than reality. No TV revenue in the past two years has exacerbated the situation. I think Crane jumped at a plan that would not require any more cash and then justified it in his own mind so thoroughly that he can’t go back on it. I doubt they have the money to go after FAs even if they wanted to. The develop through the draft plan offers a plausible solution to a return to respectability. Unfortunately, absent a big cash infusion from some source I think we are stuck with it.

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  6. Oh, and George Postolos has to be ranked really high on the bad hire list for no other reason than what he did to the quality of the broadcast teams. Ashby and Blum are OK but losing Deshaies was a major bonehead and exchanging Dave Raymond and Brett Dolan for Robert Ford and Steve Sparks was almost as bad. Ford is barely competent but Sparks must be the worst radio announcer I have ever endured. I didn’t think anyone could be worse than Milo Hamilton on radio but Sparks has shattered the mark for ineptitude. Moving the radio broadcast to KBME from KTRH stinks too.

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  7. Chip – it is a mess, but an improving mess. The critical question here is – does the family have to be functional to be successful at the mlb level. And you are going to the vestige of the other Bo – Bopert, not Bo Porter when you talk about getting reputable and having integrity off the field first.
    We know that a convicted felon like Steinbrenner can win championships as an owner. We know head guys and their teams like Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots can be close mouthed and dysfunctional and even cheat and be successful.
    The weird part is that an argument can be made that the most likely to go – Porter – is also doing the best job of the three.
    Crane can be questioned on who he has put in charge, his arrogant attitude towards the fans (who don’t have $10 million to back up their opinions), his hold back on spending money, his PR deafness, and especially the lack of a TV deal.
    Luhnow can be questioned on his inability to rebuild the bullpen, his inability to fill in some gaping holes at the major league level, his tandem pitching decisions, his hold back on promotions – oh just read what others have said up above.
    The complaints against Porter seem to be the equivalent of complaining about what pieces of music were being played on the deck of the Titanic as it dove beneath the waves. I think he has gotten better as a manager this season. I think the team bounces back from bad performances quickly. I know that his lineup choices have not always been met with approval – but I get the feeling we may be in a Billy Beane vs. Art Howe situation here on lineup choices. A lot of his bullpen decisions are the identical ones Tony Larussa would do (except he does not have a talented bullpen) to turn to.
    Anyways – I suspect some of this recent behind the scenes intrigue is leading to Porter leaving and Crane and Luhnow not…. but make no mistake about it – once Porter is gone – Luhnow is the next one on the clock.

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  8. I don’t think Porter is necessarily going to be fired, but i wouldn’t be surprised at all if he resigns.

    Luhnow isnt going anywhere. ..him and Crane are cut from the same cloth. Weasely paper-pushers who only care about numbers and not people, who hide behind their computer and make decisions about things they’ve never seen with their own eyes, and have the people skills of a rabid pit bull.

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    • Ahhh…wasnt ready to submit yet.

      Now, i do believe that we are trending in the right way, and the rebuild SHOULD be a success…on paper (or screen…). Only one major problem, though, and it has nothing to do with the actual rebuild. Luhnow handles people like the boss from Office Space, and eventually there’s going to be a problem that his precious database can’t help him with. People are not going to want to come here, and as soon as they become free agents, players are going to want to bolt, even if we are winning. Look how many players have been vocal, major and minor league, current and former. THAT is on Lumbergh…er…Luhnow.

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      • Love the Lumbergh / Office Space reference “Umm I’m going to need you to agree to this under market 6 yr contact….”
        “Umm I need you to agree to this tandem pitching process…”
        Of course coming in to work on the weekends is a given….

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      • So, would Jesus Guzman be Milton? Maybe he was released months ago and nobody told him? ‘Have you seen my bat? I cant hit a baseball without it. Or with it, but i need it. Please dont move my locker to the boiler room. There’s roaches there. One day I’m going to burn Minute Maid down’

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  10. Well, hold the presses. Perhaps a season-changer acquisition is just breaking. Apparently the Astros — already overloaded with 40-man roster players — have claimed Sam Deduno from the Twins. Yep, Mr. Deduno is 31 and is under team control until 2016. He’s a potential swing guy for the Astros. This year, he has 4.60 FIP, 1.446 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 and 4 BB/9.

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    • Awesome Im surr Lunholes Minnie me’s have some hidden matrix facts that he isi a potential 20 game winner who has been mis- managed

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      • The database must’ve told him that he has a career era of under 3.50 when pitching on days where it’s between 80-85 degrees with a 30% chance of rain. On a related note, Luhnow plans to bring Ed Brandon out of retirement to help him with this task. If only someone had the balls to tell him he’s looking at Spring Training stats…

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    • What in hell? His minor league numbers aren’t much better, and he was an undrafte free agent to begin with, so it’s not like he was once highly touted. Surprised Lumbergh hasn’t tried to bring Kevin Jarvis out of retirement yet.

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      • Wow…that time I really wasn’t making an Office Space joke. That was my phone’s auto-correct.See? Even my phone knows this team is run by an a-hole.

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    • So – what I understand here – there is room on the 40 man for Sam Deduno a guy who can barely strikeout more guys than he walks – but there is not room on the 40 man for Tropeano – who is 7 years younger -and whose stats (and yes his are only at AAA) are way better – ERA 3.03 vs. 4.60 / WHIP .987 vs. 1.446 / K per 9 IP – 8.7 vs 7.2 / W per 9 IP – 2.4 vs 4 and on and on.
      Jeff Luhnow – you brag about building up the minors – frigging give a chance to somebody who has earned it.

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  12. I would like to point out that Luhnow has found Collin McHugh and Tony Sipp off the scrap heap and, when it is all said and done, I think we will realize what a steal he got in the Cosart trade. Luhnow is an MIT geek and probably not a people person, but I don’t think we can question his talent evaluation (or maybe numbers crunching is a better term), especially considered the limited budget he was given. He missed on Jerome Williams. I am not going to fault him too much on Crain as the original prognosis was for him to return late April/Early May. Jeff is not a physician and has to rely on medical experts when signing an injured FA. Albers, if he stayed healthy, would have been a nice pickup. He pitched very well in April. We have to realize he was given a limited budget so I would argue he has more hits than misses this year. I am sure the ‘Lunhole’ haters will provide a different perspective, but isn’t that why we are here…to give our perspective.

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    • He did indeed win out on the McHugh and Sipp signings. It’d be foolish to argue otherwise. Even a broken watch is correct twice a day.

      Williams was a complete misstep that anybody could’ve told him would happen. Pitchers with career minor league ERAs over 4.00 very rarely have success at the big leagues. Albers has been out of shape for several seasons now…he was going to break down at any time. Crain? We were able to sign him for a reason…other teams knew he wasn’t going to be able to come back this year.

      More to the point…again, it’s not the rebuilding that I have an issue with, as I think we are on the right track…on the field. It’s how everything OFF the field is being handled that I have an issue with. There’s a reason why there have been so many vocal players. One or two, I can see.

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  13. I would really like to know how much authority Bo has for in game decisions such as lineup, substitutions, etc. We know that normally manager decides these. But, since we all hear that the Astros have bigger, better computers and statisticians and are proud to be innovators, is it really that absurd to think that maybe Bo is just following instructions?

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    • I think when Bo leaves, we’re going to hear quite a lot about how the team’s been ran. It’s gonna get ugly.

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  14. Crain is Luhnow miss.
    Sipp is a hit.
    Guzman is a miss.
    McHugh is a hit.
    Albers is a miss
    Raul Valdes is a miss.
    Feldman as a 3 or 4 is a hit.
    Feldman as an ace is a miss.
    Jerome is a miss.
    Raul Valdez was a miss
    I’m going to give Presley a hit but that means
    Downs is a miss
    Veras is a hit because I wanted him back so I can’t fault Jeff.
    I give him eight misses and five hits. I think I was fair.

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      • Hell yeah you could count Aiken as a damn miss. We needed help sooner rather than later, so he drafts a damn high school pitcher? Meanwhile, Carlos Rodon is already at AAA and excelled against college batters…and actually his college stats were better than Appel’s! To be honest, I wish high school players were required to play a season or two in college before hitting the pros, like in basketball, but that ain’t going to happen.

        Guzman was the batting equivalent of Jerome Williams..Stevie Wonder could see he wasn’t going to pan out. Downs was bad in the minors too. Another guy with a career minor league ERA over 4.00. Valdes was terrible in the minors and 36 years of age. Players don’t get better at that age. I’m 36 and can throw a decent knuckler…maybe I should try to get a spring invite? For a stat guru, Luhnow doesn’t seem to be very good at it.

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      • I can’t give Albers a miss. You can’t predict injuries and Matt even said he turned down a bit more to play at home. Feldman was a slight overpay, but that is the position the Astros are in right now and we all know that. Not a miss with him as we also needed a veteran to anchor the staff. Downs was an NRI, I believe, so I don’t think that is a miss either. He has been adequate as a loogy. I think Jerome and Guzman, are really the only fair misses, but he hit it big on McHugh and Sipp considering the cost and how effective they have been.

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      • How? With no pre-draft physical allowed and an elbow abnormality in his left elbow we can’t fairly evaluate this until we see how he does and who we get with the 1-2 next year. If Aiken turns out like R.A. Dickey, sans the knuckleball, we may call Luhnow a genius for passing on Aiken.

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      • What does Aiken’s elbow have to do with the fact that Rodon would’ve been ready sooner? I was against drafting Aiken #1 before the elbow came out.

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      • Aiken should count for more than one miss. I’d go ahead and call it three misses thanks to that one pick.

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      • Billy,

        You have no idea what the Astros were offered for Qualls so there is no way you can make that call. I don’t mind having a spirited discussion, but if you are going to get off track like that then discussion is over. We both know you are grasping at straws there.

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      • How is it getting off track when you mentioned Qualls, and I responded to you about him.You really don’t like it when someone disagrees with you, do you? No wonder OldPro went off on you the other day. If the Tigers didn’t want him, they wouldn’t have claimed him. Most likely, Luhnow asked for more than what he was worth in return, or the trade would’ve happened. Here’s the thing…his ERA after the All-Star break is 7.43. He’s an older pitcher who has had arm trouble in the recent past. HE’S TRENDING DOWNWARD, and at his age his value will never be higher than it is right now. His numbers against LHP this year are awful as well. You’d WANT somebody to take him off your hands. Grasping at straws? I don’t think so.

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      • It is getting off track because you have no idea what the Astros were offered for Qualls so it is impossible to call not trading him a miss. Also, his ERA for the year is under 4 and his 2nd half ERA was primarily due to 2 bad outings against Oakland. He has been lights out against everyone else. I have no problem when someone disagrees with me and I will argue my point, but when you try to use not trading someone as a miss when it is impossible to evaluate it then that is getting off track. Prove to me it was a miss and I will grant it to you. You can’t because you don’t know what Detroit offered us. Also, we have Qualls under contract for next year. He has been a positive for the Astros this year and may be next year as well.

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    • How much are we paying Downs and Valdes? For that cost it is a crapshoot. In my opinion a miss is someone like Bill Hall who you give over $3M for absolutely nothing.

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      • Doesn’t matter…if they cost us more games rhan they contribute positively towards, it doesn’t matter if they ost a million dollars or $3.50.

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      • You have to evaluate the cost when assessing hit or miss. Feldman is neither because he was paid as a #3-4 SP and has performed as such. Downs has performed as his salary would indicate. You get what you pay for.

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      • If you pay a guy $20M and he has a WAR of 1 I would call that a miss even though he has helped more than hurt. The salary absolutely has to be under consideration.

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      • But if a player sucks, they suck, regardless of how much you’re paying them. I’ve never, ever, understood the mentality of ‘oh, we gave this guy eight million so we have to play him even though he has an ERA of six’. The money is already spent…don’t make a bad thing worse! In this case, yeah, it’s a cheap player, but if he’s costing you games, don’t keep using them! Get a better cheap player! We got some guys in the minors who could do better.

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      • I agree with you regarding playing time, but when evaluating a player as a hit or miss you have to consider the salary. Even the Yankees don’t have an unlimited budget so if you spend $20M on a player that gives you a 1 WAR that would be a miss as you could have gotten a better return on your investment.

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  16. Hit or Miss? You tell me. Brandon Laird, Travis Buck, Ben Francisco, Brian Bixler, F Martinez, Tyler Greene, Ronny Cedeno, Chris Snyder, Scott Moore, Mickey Story, Chuckie Fick, Carlos Pena, Trevor Crowe, Jake Elmore, Rick Ankiel, Cody Clark, Matt Pagnozzi, Wade LeBlanc, Travis Blackley, Edgar Gonzalez, Francisco Cordero, and I Am Fat Amador.

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      • We must still be in tank mode. We traded one of our starting pitchers, who was cheap, had nine wins and was under club control for years for unproven players and future. And this was going to be a year when things were different.

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      • We are taking about this year. Get on track or let’s end this debate. The prior years were all about tank mode and when JL was given a $20M budget we know he wasn’t getting Pujols or Josh Hamilton.

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      • No, but not every cheap player will suck. Using this year as an example, look at McHugh and Sipp. You can have a low budget and use what you do have smartly. Look at Oakland. Unless, you’re saying we were not just trying to save money, but actually throwing games. That’s what ‘tank mode’ implies, and that’s far worse than Pete Rose betting.

        In any case, you have yet to address the (valid) concerns raised on how Luhnow handles the other aspects of running a baseball team, mainly the main point of this article!

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      • I.addressed them in one of the early posts. The discussion on hits or misses are about this year. Every player mentioned by Astro45 were in prior years. I could find a few gems in those years also, including Jose Veras last year.

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    • Astro45, all of those guys were misses, most of them were Luhnow’s. I don’t count Francisco because we got him in a trade if I’m not mistaken. That is another set of hits and misses though.
      It really doesn’t pay to argue with someone who is in love. They just can’t see the reality of the situation.
      Anybody that counts Albers as a hit is either totally smitten or else they may have a real investment in the person that they are constantly defending who is constantly screwing up. And the Astros are still in tank mode because almost everything Luhnow touched this year has tanked. He has absolutely reaked as a GM this year.

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      • I never said Albers was a hit. You are mincing words to try, unfortunately unsuccessfully, to prove your point. I have already allayed my concerns with Luhnow, but I think I have validly proven how Luhnow has not ‘reaked’ this year. Our discussion was about this year, which you even indicated above by saying Luhnow has reaked as GM THIS YEAR, but every player Astros 45 mentioned were in prior years. How does that validate your argument? I am willing to have a debate with you and keep it civil, but you want to try and make it personal by saying I am in love with Luhnow just because I disagree with your analysis. Ok, is that how you want this discussion to go? Come on, oldpro, you are better than that.

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      • Amen . Every Gm has hit and misses to me that’s part of game , but Lunhole has had a horrible year all the way around. What bothers me the most is the PR nightmares. the handling of our young kids, the perception that we are a slimy Organization, leadership with no class, just arrogance. I’m a bad loser and like winning as much as anyone., but integrity is right there with winning, and the Astros suck at both right now,

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    • Exactly (and that was the subject of this blog post, hence the title). As I have mentioned numerous times, my issue is NOT with the rebuilding, as on paper we’re heading in the right direction. It’s the *other* things about Luhnow that bother me, and sure seems to bother many others. Tim seems to be downplaying that (quote : ‘The PR disasters have to be stopped, but many fans understand the player development growth that has happened in the minors was a must and, from most expert evaluations, a success.’) Well, if those PR disasters, and more importantly, the *major* player relation issues are not fixed, it will undo all of the good he’s done otherwise. Free agents will be less likely to come here regardless of how much money is being thrown at them. When our guys become free agents, they will be less likely to stay as well. I personally do not want that to happen. I was a casual fan beforehand, but the year I became I diehard? 1991. Well, I don’t want to see Springer eventually traded for a scrub catcher (Taubensee), or Keuchel traded for a relief pitcher who will never play for us and end up having a mediocre career only notable for getting popped for steroids (Grimsley). Point is, I want this team to succeed, and it very well can, and for years to come…but Luhnow is going to have to learn to become a much better people person, and sadly a computer can’t teach that.

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      • I agree with everything you said here. I also think Luhnow’s computer is working when it comes to player evaluation, for the most part.

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      • I do as well, and that’s the frustrating part. This team has potential to be very good for a very long time if the right choices are made, and things are handled better than they are right now.

        We’ve been in this situation before, and there are two things that killed us…Lofton (and Dave Rhode, but he didn’t count) for Taubensee and Willie Blair…and the trade of Caminiti and Finley to San Diego for Derek Bell and a bunch of scrubs. I really don’t want history to repeat itself. I think the Cosart trade was a good one, in that Marisnick will be a good player for a good amount of time, but the reason FOR the trade quite frankly scares me. A player shouldn’t end up disgruntled that quickly.

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      • I think the Cosart trade will prove to be one of Luhnow’s best moves. I also think it was primarily done because of what we received. Luhnow’s computer saw more future wins with what we got than what we gave up. I was never a big Cosart fan and think his ceiling was an average #2, at best. Kike and Wates are easily replaceable.

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      • Do you think we would ever have had Doug Brocail as pitching coach had the Derek bell trade never happened?

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    • Tell that to the Philadelphia 76ers this year. My point is the Astros didn’t publicly state they were tanking, but teams do it in order to help their draft position. They aren’t intentionally throwing games, but they aren’t going to ‘go for it’ either. It happens in sports.

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  19. Porter will be back, as will Luhnow.

    I don’t care about Leakgate or Appel throwing a bullpen or the he (Porter?) said/she (Luhnow?) said stuff or any other scandal beyond the damned TV deal. They’re all grown ups, so they can work together even if they aren’t hanging out together with the wives and kids in the offseason.

    All that matters is that the team is better and better still next year. Winning smooths a lot of hurt feelings.

    The top issue is the bullpen. See, it is all about the on-field product.

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    • Yes sir! It is all about the on-field performance and getting better. All the other garbage, for the most part, is irrelevant. FAs will come here once the Astros are winning consistently and we pay them the most. We got Feldman to come here by offering him a 3rd guaranteed year.

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  20. An average # 2? That would make him roughly one of the best 60 starters on the planet. And right now, he’s pitching like one of the best hand full of starters on the planet. Like Cosart or not, the trade was a step backwards in the effort of making this club relevant again. We have no idea what Moran or Marisnick will amount to. But an “average # 2” is a rare find.

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    • That’s his ceiling and I don’t think he gets there. Cosart switched leagues and is pitching in a cavernous ballpark. The league will catch up with him. In the meantime, we got two top 100 prospects and a supplemental draft pick. Essentially, we will get three first round picks next year. This trade will be, in my opinion, one of Luhnow’s best moves. Cosart was pitching average for us.

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      • Cosart was 9-7 this year with the Astros and the Astros were 11-9 with him starting. That is a team that was 23 games under .500. There is no way that 9-7 on a terrible team is average.
        You don’t like Cosart and you think the world of Luhnow, but according to you a huge loser of a team under Luhnow is the work of a genius and the 9-7 record of a pitcher on a huge loser is average. How in the world is this not supposed to be personal when you come on here and call out everbody else when we look at the team and everybody in the baseball world sees them the way we do except you?
        Are we supposed to cower to somebody who is obviously so predudiced in favor of someone that they ignore what is right in front of them.

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      • Yeah, Cosart’s main issue is his control, and he could be pitching in the world’s largest stadium and it wouldn’t make a bit of difference.

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      • Again, wins are a terrible measure to determine if a player was good or not. Nolan Ryan was 8-16 one year for the Astros with a 2.76 ERA. If we used wins to determine his value he would be considered terrible. Some pitchers get more run support than others. Wins and losses is, for the most part, out of a pitcher’s control.

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    • We have no idea what Cosart will amount to either. Marisnick has been very good since we acquired him just like Cosart has done well for Miami. We shall see if they both continue with their limited success.

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    • Dave,

      I am sure you are a baseball fan, but I will trust the opinions of Keith Law, Ken Rosenthal and John Heyman over yours, no offense. They all agreed that the Astros cleaned up in the Cosart trade.

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      • No you don’t. You’re just throwing their names out to put Dave’s opinion down. Because if those three guys say something bad about Luhnow you are gonna call them lazy or incompetent journalists. Just like you come at us for telling the truth about the lousy job he is doing running this franchise. You pretend to be so smart but all you can do is defend a guy’s computer that tells you what he thinks may happen if he’s right. Everything you use to defend Luhnow is something that hasn’t happened yet.

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      • Oldpro,

        Those writers have been critical of Luhnow and his PR disasters. I agree with them. They also felt Luhnow got a coup in the Cosart trade. Do you agree with them or do you just hate JL so much you won’t ever admit when he does well?

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  21. Very good? His soft .274 average and a .637 OPS make him a 5th outfielder at best. Will be get better? Maybe. But that’s very, very limited success to date.

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  22. hey chip this is beyond my capabilities, but i think well within yours, dan and brian’s. i think it would be fun and informative to go back in time in these posts and the discussions from them and compare our personnel decisions vs Luhnow’s. for example (and this is just from my memory which aint what it used to be) it seems i remember most everbody being on board with the way the bullpen was constructed before the season. many (including myself) thought crain would be a very helpful addition (once he was available in late april or early may as reported then) if Luhnow missed on that, so did many of us in here. i think that is the case with many of the decisions. it would be interesting to compare his misses with our own.

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    • A .274 average CFer with great defense is not a 5th OFer either. My point is Marisnick may not be a HOFer, but he DEFINITELY is not a 5th OFer if he continues like he has.

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      • Like I said above, you don’t get to play outfield in MLB for long if the best you can do at the plate is a .665 OPS, regardless of how well you play the field.

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      • But, if it doesn’t apply in this case, then why bring it up? The numbers for a SS are held to a different standard than an OFer. Apples and oranges. Keep in mind I’m agreeing with you on Marisnick, in that I do think he will be a good player for us , and his numbers right now are not indicative of his future ability, but when you make statements like that, you’re hurting your argument.

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      • I agree with you, Billy. I brought it up to show that defense has to be considered when evaluating a player. You can’t just look at offense, which Dave was doing when looking at Marisnick.

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      • Well, Cosart is certainly not a #3 pitcher if he continues like he is. You see, there you go using Marisnick’s future as really bright, and Cosart’s as not very good, even though their major league experience appearsto be showing the opposite.

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      • Marisnick had one of the best UZR’s in the minors. That coupled with his offense make him a starting CFer in the majors. Does that work for you?

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      • Listen pal, you can twist things around any way you wish, but we were talking about an outfielder, Jake Marisnick. I don’t screw with others. Don’t screw with me.

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      • Cosart has 5.7 K/9 and 4.00 BB/9 in his short ML career. His minor numbers are not much better. That is, maybe, a #3 if it continues.

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      • Lighten up. Francis (Dave). I made a valid point how defense is important in evaluating a player’s worth. I didn’t ‘screw’ with anybody. You got burned and now you’re angry.

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      • No, actually I used wins to determine current success. You are the one who uses future maybes to determine current success. I know whether a 58-79 team is successful or not and so does almost everyone else. You determine success by looking into a crystal ball.

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      • OP- to play Devil’s Advocate, unless we bomb in September like we did last year, we’ll have the best record we’ve had since Mills’s first year. I’ll gladly take that…for this year. Now, for next year, if we’re not at least 75-80 wins, then that will be unacceptable. The foundation is here, and Springer will be at 100% which will definitely help. That said, we need to SERIOUSLY upgrade our bullpen, 3B, and C situations, and anything else IMHO will be a step back.

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      • You suggested to someone that I was not considering the defensive ability of Marisnick. You were wrong. I’m quite familiar with every guy on the roster. Make your points any way you’d like, but don’t tell people what you think I was thinking or not thinking.

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      • Oldpro,

        The only way to evaluate a young player is based upon his statistics as a whole. A small sample size doesn’t give us anything. The law of large numbers is the best option. Based upon past performance from the minors Cosart projects as, maybe a #3, and Marisnick projects as an average offensive CFer with great defense. How do you propose we determine their worth?

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      • Dave,

        Not once did you mention Marisnick’s defense. You mentioned his batting average and OPS in a short sample size and called him a 5th OFer. If you considered his defense then you can’t call him a 5th OFer. He is well above average defensively.

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    • Wins is a terrible way to measure current performance as well. Jeriome Robertson had 15 wins for the Astros one year. I don’t think anyone would call him a #2, even after that season.

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  28. Mathmatically, we won’t. I know mathmatics works for you. But maybe they’ll change the rules and all the computer driven teams will get byes.

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    • After 3 years and inheriting the worst situation in baseball and an improving team on the field you want to call the plan a failure? No one promised the playoffs in 3 years. In.fact, I think almost every man or woman to a T on this blog wanted to see significant progress this year. I think a 15-18 win improvement is significant progress.

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  29. 3-2 Astros in the 9th. Qualls is in. If he blows this one to the team I hate more than any other MLB franchise, I’m not going to be a happy camper.

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  30. Wow, I wish we could clone Jose Altuve. What a hitter! I know talking about his Batting Average loses all credibility for me but, WOW!.
    Guess what? The Houston Astros were successful today. Do you know how I came to that stupid conclusion? Because they won.

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  31. And you’re damn right I’m angry. You come on this blog full of opinions, rarely supported by any facts. And the more you write, the clearer it becomes that most of the folks here understand the game quite a bit more than you do.

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    • Dave,

      I have given stats to support my argument. Why are you so angry? I am just having a spirited discussion with everyone. I am not angry that some disagree with me.

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  32. Wow, can’t leave you boys alone for anything!

    I’m sure I’ll get the complete picture when I have an opportunity to read through all the comments, but one that I’ll tackle now. Tim, you said: “The only way to evaluate a young player is based upon his statistics as a whole”

    Unfortunately, that just isn’t true. Perhaps it’s the only way for fans, but scouts, coaches, even writers like Keith Law use conversations and other observations (not available to the average fan) to rank players. For example, how coachable is a player? How teachable, meaning how well can he take instruction and translate that to the field? What’s his work ethic? What’s his attitude? You don’t see those things in a stats sheet.

    Many talented players are just that…talented…but have little or nothing between the ears. Every one of the players on the Astros’ 40-man roster has talent. But many can’t translate that talent into production and, yes, that often is evident in the stats, but that isn’t the end of it.

    Chris Carter appears — appears — to be one of those players who is learning late and translating some of that coaching and work ethic into a meaningful MLB player.

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  33. Tim, I have never seen or heard anybody suggest that Cosart doesn’t have a good work ethic. In fact, from what I saw, he might listen a little too much. For a while this season, it looked like he was making changes to his delivery for every game. I am guessing that was based on input from the pitching coach. In every post game interview, he talked about watching video to identify possible improvements. Do you have evidence to provide supporting your comment that he has a rep as a player lacking between the ears when it comes to baseball performance? If you like the trade, that is fine. You may be right. But I don’t think it is fair to a player to try to support your opinion by attacking a his work ethic without evidence. What I have heard coaches say in tV interviews is that he battles and competes. With barely one full year at the Major league league level, he will undoubtedly mature and improve. Just like Dallas Keuchel did. I’m not saying anything against what the Astros got in return. On paper, it looks like a wagonload of potential. Miami obviously feels like they were getting an equal value. I suspect they would not have been willing to give up that much if Cosart is “lacking between the ears.”

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    • I will see what I can find, but I recall reading something about him being stubborn. I didn’t question his work ethic. I don’t hate Cosart and wouldn’t have mind keeping him, but I love the trade. Others may not and that is fine also. I just feel, based on his minor league numbers and his short sample size in the pros, that Cosart doesn’t project as a great pitcher. I think Bud Norris is about where he may get. Bud Norris is a decent pitcher, probably a #3 on most staffs.

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  34. It looks like OKC will not make the playoffs after losing 3 straight to Iowa while Omaha won 3 straight. We should see some of the OKC players on Tuesday.

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  35. Regarding Cosart, it was his use of a gay slur on Twitter discussing Justin Bieber. earlier this year that raised some concerns about him. I am not going to demean him too much for this as we all make mistakes, and I can’t stand Justin Bieber, but this was the issue that comes to mind about him. He speaks his mind and, at times, that can cause problems.

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  37. I found this on mlbtraderumors.com and thought I would post it here since it is germane to our very lengthy discussion today. I will say this, if Cosart can maintain is 1.91 BB/9 IP then his ceiling is a #2, but it is a short sample size and he has never come close to this before over a season.

    Jarred Cosart has an “extra chip on his shoulder” following his trade from the Astros to the Marlins, reports Craig Davis of the Sun Sentinel. Cosart has helped to keep the Marlins long shot playoff hopes alive with a 1.64 ERA in five starts. Based on the pitcher’s comments, he was a little irked by the surprise deadline deal. Miami received quite a bit of criticism for the package they sent to Houston (Colin Moran, Jake Marisnick, and a 2015 competitive balance pick), but pundits will sing a different tune if Cosart continues to dominate opponents. Looking at his peripherals, Cosart’s short term success seems to depend on a 1.91 BB/9 that’s roughly half his typical walk rate.

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  38. Even more importantly, Miami is 4-2 in Cosart’s starts for a cool .667 winning percentage. Cosart himself is 3-1 which is a .750 winning percentage.
    Wins are really important to a team like the Marlins, who completely tore their team down after the 2012 season, rebuilt during the 2013 season and are only 6.5 games out with a month left this year, and are 66-69 currently.
    Year Two of their rebuild sure looks pretty good. Last year the Marlins were the second most laughed at team in baseball and now they’re actually in the wild card chase. I think they have a pretty low payroll, too.
    Even so, I bet all of the Miami fans are wringing their hands about Jake from State Farm’s minor league UZR haunting them for years.

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    • I think losing Moran is the main issue the Marlins fans have with the trade. He’s hitting well at AA for us…maybe he’ll be up by the ASB next year for us?

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    • Miami was nowhere in the shape the Astros were in 3 years ago. They still had a decent farm system to work with and traded away a slew of legit major league players like Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle to add more depth. The Astros didn’t have that ability once Pence was traded.

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    • Again, very short sample size. If he continues at this pace then I will agree Luhnow missed on this, but his past numbers don’t show this will continue. The article even states Miami received a lot of heat for the trade, indicating most felt it was not a good trade for them. We shall see.

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  39. Not that anyone cares what I think, but:

    Initially, I hated the Cosart trade. But looking at what Moran will probably (possibly?) become, and seeing Matty D struggle, I think Luhnow won that deal. I guess we’ll know once that supplemental pick is signed.

    I think this has been Luhnow’s worst year. Some of it was within his control (Jerome Williams?) and some was not (injured relievers who misses their recovery timetables). And some things (Leakgate, players getting their panties in a knot over Appel getting some instruction from Strom) are just head-scratchers to me as to why they are a big deal. But the important thing is this: Crane and Luhnow inherited a bad MLB team with a horrid farm system. The latter has been fixed. The former is getting better.

    We will be 17-19 games better. Fix the damned bullpen (for real) and this is easily a .500 team. And that’s before Petit and Marwin replacing Villar’s ABs for a full season. That’s before putting the 3B job up for grabs next spring (or just signing Panda for two years). That’s before a starting outfield of Fowler, Jake from State Farm and Springer. And Presley as your backup. That’s before Singleton has his natural bounce back (check his history in the minors) to a .240-.260 average and a K rate closer to 20% than 30%.

    Luhnow’s bad year will be followed by a highly competitive team. But don’t listen to me, I’m a Koolaid drinker.

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    • I’m with you Brian. Question, though…do you think that means Grossman won’t be here, or do you think he’ll be there in Presley’s spot?

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    • I also agree with this. I think it has been Luhnow’s worst year primarily due to the PR disasters, not the player personnel decisions. He definitely missed on Williams and Guzman, but hit it big time on Sipp and McHugh. I will give him a miss on Crain, but I think it is unfair to do so on Albers as he did not have any prior injury history and you can’t predict this. I also think the Fowler trade was a hit despite him missing some games. He gave up nothing for Fowler. I am a Koolaid drinker when it comes to his player evaluation, but not his people-person skills.

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  40. Billy, for me, I think I would rather keep Grossman, but it is a close call. Presley has had a better year, but I still think Grossman and his high OBP will play out better in the long-term. What do you think?

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