Dan Peschong is back today with a quick revisit of the 2012 draft.
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If you ever want to get depressed – head off to baseball-reference.com and look at Houston Astros drafts through the years and check out how those players performed (or did not perform) in the majors.
It doesn’t take long to see an average draft might snag one decent major league performer and a handful of cup of coffee players. A good draft would result in 2 solid major leaguers and some side flotsam. It could be argued that the 1987 draft that netted Craig Biggio in round one and Darryl Kile in round 30 and might have snagged Scott Erickson in the 34th round (if he had signed) along with lesser lights like Al Osuna was the Astros greatest draft ever. Or you may prefer the absolute bargain of 1996 with Wade Miller in the 20th round and Roy Oswalt in the 23rd round.
The bottom line is that even with huge holes in the major league team and all the opportunities in the world – expecting to hit on three solid major leaguers or more out of a single draft constitutes something tremendous and basically unprecedented in franchise history. So, with minimal information in hand – is it possible that Jeff Luhnow’s first draft for the Astros in 2012 could be one of “those” drafts. Let’s take a look.
1st round – #1 overall – Carlos Correa – After getting his feet wet in rookie ball – he has had a straight away great year at Quad Cities (A ball). As an 18 years old, he is sporting a .331 BA / .414 OBP and is a solid run producer with 60 runs scored and 65 RBIs this season. I would love to see him jumped to at least Lancaster (A+) before the end of the year.
1A sandwich pick – Lance McCullers – Similar to Correa this RHP signed early enough to have 6 weeks in rookie ball in 2012. This year he is putting up very solid numbers alongside Correa at Quad Cities with a 3.05 ERA, 10+ Ks / 9 IP and a 1.33 WHIP. His control needs some work – more than 4 BBs/9 IP, but hey, he’s only 19 years old.
2 – Nolan Fontana – Last season at Lexington (A ball) SS Fontana put up one of the most ridiculous lines I’ve ever seen when he put up a .464 OBP despite only hitting .225. This season the 22 year old is still an OBP machine (.426) which has led to 78 runs scored. (Note – the best OBP on the big club belongs to Robbie Grossman at .358)
3 Brady Rodgers – Despite so-so numbers at Lancaster, which is not a pitcher’s paradise (9-6 record but a 5.34 ERA), this 22 year old RHP has come the closest to the big show this season. The local product (Lamar Consolidated High) had good fill-in outings at both AA Corpus (5 scoreless innings) and AAA OKC (5 IP, 1 run).
4 Rio Ruiz – This third baseman has had a mediocre year at A ball Quad Cities batting .250 with 8 dingers at a corner IF spot. But he’s only 19 years old and does draw walks at a rate above 10% of his PAs.
5 Andrew Aplin – The 22 year old OF had a super hot start to the season, but even after cooling off, he still has solid numbers at High A Lancaster. Again it is hard to judge those numbers at the high altitude but he has good walk numbers and his 91 runs scored and 91 RBIs really standout at this point in the season.
6 Brett Phillips – After struggling a bit at lower A ball, the 19 year old OF was shifted back down to rookie ball at Greeneville and is putting up solid numbers there – especially a .395 OBP.
7 Preston Tucker – This 22 yr old OF is one of those players, who looked a lot better at altitude (Lancaster) than at sea level CC. He does walk and drive in runs in droves – he was driving them in at a one per game pace at Lancaster – but he is still knocking them in at a 95 RBI for 162 game pace at CC. Faithful blogger daveb gave us an in-person eyes-on evaluation of Tucker that painted him as a shorter, fatter, slower version of Brett Wallace. That sounds more like a catcher than an OF.
8 Tyler Heineman –Speaking of catchers, this 22 year old out of UCLA – killed it at Tri Cities in 2012 – and now has good numbers at Lancaster offensively with 12 HR and 52 RBIs while throwing out almost 40% of runners.
9 Daniel Minor – Another Texas product (Dripping Springs and TAMU-Corpus) – the 22 year old RHP has good numbers at Low A ball 7-2 record 3.40 ERA with a middle of the road K/9 IP.
10 Joe Bircher – The LHP out of Bradley has pitched well at each of the 3 levels he has been at – but he has only reached Low A ball and he is a good bit older (23) than most of his competition.
Beyond the 10th round – the prospects are made up of mostly 4 year or so college players, who either have to make it quick or not at all. Here are comments on a few of the players making the most noise:
11th round – Hunter Virant – Only significant as the first draft choice not signed from this draft as he went to UCLA instead.
14 Joe Sclafani – This SS is tearing things up at hitter friendly – Lancaster (A+) .325 BA/.427 OBP /.921 OPS. But he is 23 yrs old.
16 Dan Gulbransen – The 22 yr old OF has ridden his .400+ OBP from lower A ball to A ball to A+ ball this season.
23 Travis Ballew – The 22 yr old RHP out of Texas State has a great 13.4 K/9 IP pared with a mediocre 4.63 ERA at A+ Lancaster.
31 MP Cokinos – Never having seen him play – I’m not sure if the Memorial HS product is super flexible as he has played C/1B/OF and DH for Lancaster or just a player without a position. The 23 yr old does seems very comfortable at the plate with 80 RBIs, .314 BA/.410 OBP and .921 OPS.
33 Mike Hauschild – The 23 yr old LHP out of Dayton was excellent at Greenville in 2012, had a great start in 2013 at Quad Cities with a 6-1 record and a 2.92 ERA and now has had a good start after promotion to easy hitting Lancaster with a 3.32 4 ERA.
34 Jordan Jankowski – After posting a 2.61 ERA at Quad Cities – the 24 year old righty just received a quick promotion to Lancaster.
So, could this draft class be something special and what would special mean?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
68 responses to “Dan revisits the 2012 draft: Could it be one of those drafts?”
OK, kill me for being off subject and most of all for making this suggestion …. but if I was Luhnow, I’d sign Valverde to a minors deal, get him up to the bigs for the last 40 games and see if he can revitalize his career. Then bring him to Spring Training. Gonna need a closer anyway. What do you have to lose? Maybe he tucks away 6 or 7 saves this year and has 12-15 by trading deadline next year.
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EG – as far as I’m concerned anything Astros is on topic.
I am torn on your suggestion. After all you would be picking up a freebee that you might flip for nothing. I’m
Leaning towards finding out if any of the youngsters can close. Fields hanging curveball last night did not help his case as they handed away another one.
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Thanks for all the research done on this article. I started reading baseball box scores with my Pampaw – before I went to school. Ran and got the Beaumont Enterprise every morning and read about not only the Texas League, but the Evangeline & Big State Leagues. Went every year to see several Beaumont Exporters/Roughnecks games. Best pitcher I ever saw was Karl Spooner, best power hitter Jim Greengrass, best for average Les Fleming. But the lesson I learned was my “can’t miss” stars, missed badly sometimes. So for 50 years I ignored the minors. Until this year. I have read great articles by you, OKwhatever, DaveB, etc. Because I pray that we have found lightning in a bottle in the minors – as it is obvious we have not in the majors. I know for every Derek Jeter, there are 5 Rocky Nelsons. But lets hope the 2014 + Astros beat the odds on finding talent.
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Astros 45 – nice memories. Karl Spooner has two Houston connections. He struck out 15 in his first major league start, which was tied by…JR Richard. They say Spooner was hurt teh next spring training when he was put into a game without proper warm up and sustained a bad arm injury (something that would never happen today). He was never the same – spent part of a season in the majors and then bounced around the minors finishing up with the Houston Buffs.
Very true words about lightning in a bottle. You have to pick the right guys (supposedly the Astros picked Phil Nevin over Derek Jeter for signability causing their top scout to quit) and those guys have to become THE GUY. But every draft pick you can either nurse to the majors or can develop enough to include in a trade for a real major leaguer brings value to the organization.
By the way – on last night’s broadcast they said that every Astro minor league club was in first place or tied for first. This is a huge turn around from even two to three years ago. The talent is coming.
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Very interesting article Dan, I always appreciate the folks here who search around the minor leagues and post information.
The future looks promising but enduring the present sure is painful.
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Every rose has its thorns, Sandy?
Of course, the Cardinal fans have both a great mlb team and a great minor league system. What would that feel like?
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Heaven!
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Good afternoon Dan and all. Good stuff here, and I read What the heck bobby
on a daily read also! It’s interesting to see where these guys are now. Pitching will
always be in demand, and we HOPE these young guns can keep up their end of the deal! What makes a player “special”? Look at Altuve, Barnes, Dominguez. They aren’t super stars, but they ARE special. Look at the defense at 3rd. base, and you will see a guy who gets to nearly EVERY ball hit his way…….believe me the pitchers
on this team know who he is. Look at the web gem plays in center field. THAT guy
has saved a TON of runs. Look at the 5ft.4 guy playing 2nd. base………he lays out
on every ball hit his way, and makes some AWESOME double plays. No one in MLB
could tell you about theses guys, because they aren’t “super stars”, but they *ARE*
special. If the crop of kids you listed in this article can come CLOSE to these guys,
I’ll call it a WIN-WIN everyday, and twice on Sunday! Becky 🙂
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Yo, Becky!
You are right of course – we don’t need all of them to be Biggio/ Bagwell/ Oswalt – but we need solid guys also.
I am encouraged that between Grossman, Barnes and Hoes that there are more balls not hitting the turf. Last night I wished Altuve had been positioned to catch one of Big Pappi’s DP ground balls that ended up singles.
No disrespect to Dominguez or Barnes – but I sure hope their replacements are among this list of youngsters.
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I hope there is a real GEM in this group for 3rd. base. We are soooo dang weak
in that area, and we HAVE to have a solid guy at the hot corner. No….the majority
of the guys playing right now, are only place setters for the new group in 2015.
I *hope* Correa will be that guy at third, if he’s moved over there. This year has been just like the two before………a BIG disaster, but we knew it was going to be like this, so we really can’t complain. We CAN however hit Jim Crane in his pocket
by not buying ANY tickets to see his team lose. I had to laugh last night when Reid Ryan was in the radio booth talking about season ticket holders. *WHAT* season
ticket holders????? I feel sorry for these kids, they have been over matched the
entire year. Becky
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Becky – 3B is easier to find than SS (though not by the Astros). I think they will try and get as much talent to mlb as possible and then move someone – whoever makes the most sense with arm and range.
I think with as low as the payroll is – Crane makes money if nobody shows up and even with the 40% Comcast coverage.
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becky, above you just started Dominguez is the guy. Confused…
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*stated, not started
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???????????????
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Becky –
What Billy C is saying is that up above you listed Dominguez as special – but in a later comment you said you hoped there was a gem at 3B among the draftees.
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Good review Dan. I do think there will be some major leaguers from the 2012 class, and I hope they come with a bat. I know pitching wins but with our guys it will be a struggle to get 3 runs if a mediocre quality pitcher is opposing them. I hope some coach sets Altuve down and explains the relationship between longevity and strike zone recognition.
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One thing that is clear, ted – Luhnow absolutely prioriitzed OBP when picking hitters. That is something that is terribly lacking with the main club and Jose Altuve (only 25 walks in 459 plate appearances) is a main culprit. Obviously, he has minimal protection in the lineup – but he has always been a free swinger. That 5% or so walk rate is poor and he could easily be replaced when someone more to Luhnow’s liking rises to the cusp of mlb.
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What do people think about the two bullpen changes the last two days.
– Cisnero and Blackely sent down
– Kevin Chapman brought up – good news is that he has a 10+ / 9IP strikeout rate – very bad news a 6+ / 9IP walk rate. Decent ERA.
– Jorge De Leon – brought up – better control than Chapman, not much of a K rate and so/so ERA this year.
The merry-go-round continues
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Cisnero’s control has been terrible since the break. Blackley’s acquisition defied logic in the first place. I believe the former can still be a big contributor. I believe the latter is gone this offseason.
Any thoughts on waiver wire claims by Luhnow? Who might get placed on the block that we could put in a claim?
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Devi – I think you are right on in your assessment of both Cisnero and Blackley. I have a hard time picturing who would get released that Luhnow would grab at this point. It just does not feel like the kind of direction he is headed.
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Interesting interview on CSN.com with Brian Smith (who I can NOT stand) about
Jason Castro and Lyles. He’s got some pretty telling remarks about the pitchers
not liking to work with Castro. Since I’ve been fairly vocal about Castro, I thought it worth listening to. Becky
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I did find that interesting – here is the link
http://www.csnhouston.com/astros/brian-smith-jordan-lyles
I know that Castro is not a very good defensive catcher and all – but …
1) He was also catching when Lyles was kicking butt and taking names
2) Tough to say he is costing Lyles 5 to 7 run difference per game in performance.
I mean – if it is Castro – then they need to have him DH and learn first base or trade him. If a guy is the source of the “communication” problem they are talking about – don’t you as Lyles go to the coaches / manager and get them to come down on Castro? Do you have the bench call the whole game? Something?
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Just want to chip in on two points. First Altuve makes too much contact for a high walk rate. He will place the ball in play too often. (Not an excuse just how he swings the bat). Second, Castro never appeared to me as a “take charge” catcher. Joe Garagiola once said, “There are a lot of holler guys at catcher, but when a decision has to be made on a bunt or slow roller when the pitcher or fielder has his back to the play – some of these holler guys get lock jaw.” I have never seen Castro come out from behind the plate, pointing and yelling which base for the fielder. Finally to be fair, I am in Csn/Crane jail this year, so perhaps some things have changed in 2013.
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Astro 45 – Not totally buying into your argument on Altuve – wouldn’t he still make a pretty high contact rate if he watched some balls come across? I think it is his aggessive attitude that depresses his walk rate. Now it is a conundrum for the coaching staff – if they try to change his plate attitude he might turn into a .250 hitter with a .320 OBP – I don’t know. Basically, you just don’t see huge sea changes in guys after a certain point. Maybe the only way Altuve’s OBP gets to .380 is if his BA gets to .340.
Castro 2013, my take:
In 2010 – he was throwing out a great 37% of base stealers, after his surgery in 2012 he was throwing out a puny 19%. This year he is improved – throwing out slightly less than the league average at 24%. Corporan is a bit better at 28%.
Castro gives up a lot more Passed Balls than Corporan 9 vs. 1 for the season (Corporan has caught about 45% of the amount of innings as Castro). Corporan makes a lot more errors – he has 5 vs. Castro’s 4 in a lot less innings. The amount of wild pitches with Corporan vs. Castro is very similar – pitcher’s have a wild pitch in about 4% of Corporan’s innings vs. 4.4% of Castro’s innings.
I know folks think the pitcher’s perform a lot better for Corporan than Castro – but their “catcher” ERA (the ERA of pitchers being caught by each) is not significantly different – 4.87 for Corporan / 5.03 for Castro. Both very stinky ERAs.
I do not know what goes on in the clubhouse and what the pitchers are saying behind the catcher’s backs. But I’m not seeing a huge difference on the field – there is a difference, but not enough to blame it all on the catcher.
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I would not say Tucker is fat, but he is wide, and he is slow. And he’ll only get wider and slower. How many DH’s can we use?
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So, is he like Tony Gwynn wide? Pablo Sandoval wide? CC Sabathia wide? Dan P wide?
Is he like JDM slow? Tony Eusebio slow? Matt Dominguez slow?
Just trying to compare him to something we know….
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LOL…if JDM, Eusebio, and Dominguez were in a 100m race, it’d take 2 1/2 seasons to finish.
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Slower than Dominguez. He has a 2 rating in speed. That’s pretty slow.
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What’s he doing? Running backwards? Dominguez is such an automatic DP candidate.
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Billy C – somehow Tony Eusebio had 5 career triples – must have had OFs collding with each other or the wall. Of course, for all we know Tony didn’t make it ot the bigs until he was about 40….
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Someone once commented that when Jeff Burroughs ran from 1st to 3rd, or chased an outfield fly – “it looked like he was carrying a piano when he ran.” And his stats show 20 career triples. Guess speed is like beauty – in the eye of the beholder.
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Why do we have a guy playing AA ball with a 14 and 2 record? And a 2.01 ERA? And a 1.00 WHIP?
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Because of Carlos Rodon?
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But really, can’t they a least move Martinez to AAA ball?
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I know – it makes zero sense – especially at his age.
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They brought Martinez up to OKC yesterday……he’s 26yrs.old. Pretty dang good pitcher! Becky
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Thanks for the news Becky – daveb should be happy.
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Note to every starting pitcher in this rotation:
If you want to win a ball game……go the distance, because this bull pen
*WILL* lose your game. Man…….is this the WORST bull pen you’ve ever seen??
Good LORD.
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Let’s face it Becky – this may be the least experienced bull pen in the history of the game – maybe the least experienced staff too.
Unfortunately the starters pitch well but only for about 6 – 7 innings,
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Could someone please…..explain to me why…..Porter keeps putting Wright in against right handed hitters when ( I just read today) righties are hitting over 300 against him?
I know the bullpen, in general, is terrible but, could we please try something different.
Doing the same thing day after day, expecting a different outcome is ( I won’t say stupid), but it sure ain’t smart.
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What makes me a believer isn’t one particular prospect but the plethora we have. (“Do you know what a plethora is?” “No, Jefe.”
Don’t get me wrong. I get excited talking about Correa and Springer and McCullers and Folty. But if you look at our system, we have 25 to 30 real prospects. Say just one in five make it. Then we hit lightning in a bottle with some low-rounders a la Oswalt or Wade Miller, and we’ve got eight solid major leaguers with maybe two or three real stars. Add that to Castro, Altuve and maybe one of our current outfielders, and suddenly we’ve got a team. Fill in with some fourth outfielders and a bullpen …
This is the blueprint. This is how it gets done.
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That is what needs to happen Brian T.
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Do you really still believe that Castro should even be in the discussion as far as the future of this team goes? Brian, are you able to watch any of the games? Castro is certainly not part of the plethora. He is a weak link on a terrible team.
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By the way, Springer hit No. 30. Can we call him up yet? Please!
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Yes he should be up – but it won’t happen until Sept 1. I know that will make him in eligible for the playoff roster ….but…
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Sandy……I’m getting so dang tired of Bo Porter saying “you are expected to get the job done” ect…Bo, you don’t HAVE anybody to “get the job done”. So just say it like it is…..you have no bullpen, and you’re not gonna get anyone else to improve it, and
leave it at that. I’m pretty sure every guy out there is waiting to see who get’s DFA’d
after the game. As for Wright, he’s the only guy out there Porter has even a LITTLE faith in, and that ain’t much……..believe me!
Dan- I understand the starters have gone only 6-7 innings, but when you leave the game a couple of runs up, can you IMAGINE how that guy feels to get “bull penned”
and lose game after game? Bedard has been VERY nice about it, even though
these guys have managed to shoot him in the foot, in his last 6-7 starts. I would
NOT have been as kind as he has been.
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I’m wondering why not leave the starter in longer, unless he is in physical distress,
Couldn’t be any worse than the pen.
Becky, I get it that Porter doesn’t have any good arms in the pen and that makes me a little angry. I don’t see a lot of return for the deadline trades. It’s time to stop trading and start bringing up some of these kids.
It’s humbling to lose to our next door neighbors like last night. It’s also embarrassing to see our ballpark filled with Ranger fans. Houston deserves better
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Spent a little time looking up Top 5 prospects in various years. 2007 (DiceK, Alex Gordon, Delmon Young, Phillip Hughes, & Homer Bailey). 2008 (David Price, Matt Wieters, Jason Heyward, Rick Porcello, Cameron Maybin. with# 43 Brett Wallace, #49 Matt Dominguez.) So the top of 08 group has done much better than top of 07. Lets hope we have more hits than misses, but historically – the chances of even the Top 50 all being average MLBer just does not pan out. I would be happy with a couple or three each year forever. It is time for history to be on our side.
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Well it is a good thing that the bullpen only blew two leads tonight. It is the only consistency on the team.
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Different day…….same result. At least the Chron writers don’t have to think up any
new headlines.
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Got to see the game last night because it was the Rangers. (Of course had to mute Busby). Different people see different things. What I saw was Elmore makes the play then Chapman is out of the inning. Barnes lets up and Rios has a single. Castro holds the ball and Rios is out. Altuve is obviously playing hurt. Trembley has to know that and holds him at 3rd. None of this is on the pitchers. Now to be honest, our pitchers REQUIRE perfection of the fielders. So when it does not happen, and you give the other team extra outs the results will not be good. Just can’t hand this loss to the bullpen. And Yes, the pen has been terrible most of the year.
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Yeah last night the fielders had as much to do with the blown leads as the relievers, but it hacks you off when Andrus has to hit his first HR of the season against us in a clutch situation. Tough game to lose and they seem to be coming in from the bullpen with negative thoughts in their heads.
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That eighth inning was how they played defense under Mills.
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The Rangers are the only team in MLB that has two home parks, Arlington and Houston.
Makes me furious to hear the ” Lets go arrangers chant “
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The Red Sox had a bunch of road fans when they were here. Until we are a good club again..
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Sandy, as a former season ticket holder in Arlington, that chant sucks even in Arlington. There used to be an idiot that would get on top of the dugout with a stupid DRUM and bang on it to the rhythm of Lets Go Rangers. It was always greeted with a chorus of boos.
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Daveb – I’m not going to argue that Castro is the C of the future. But on a team that is a disaster in the bullpen, fairly useless SSs, no OF that is playing above 4th outfielder level, a 3B with an OBP below .300, a DH who hits a HR every once in awhile and nothing else, a 1B who is on about his 4th chance, etc – Castro is not a relative weak link.
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Castro is a weak link on any team, as long as he’s a bad catcher. He is a bad catcher, relative or otherwise.
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Oh, and Springer hit 31 last night….
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We should be writing Luhnow letters begging him to keep Springer in OKC so as to ensure the stink of the 2013 Astros does not hurt his chances at future success.
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Well……..at least the bullpen didn’t cough this one up, the rest of the guys on the field brought their guns to the game and shot him with their errors. Keuchel pitched
a very good game………a real shame these guys couldn’t make the plays. Becky
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Tough one – Keuchel was also out of gas in the 9th (the extra 4 runs did not make a difference, except in his ERA.
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I was there. The catch Hoes made was beautiful. Keuchel pitched a good game and yes the errors were costly.
I wonder if Carter could be helped by good coaching. He has a very quick bat and man, is he strong.
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Yes, but the throw he made in the ninth (though it did not matter at that point) was insanely bad. Oh well.
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I would say Castro is an average catcher – he’s below average defensively and above average offensively.
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I’ve said this before. He’d be a good DH against righty pitching, but is not the guy behind the plate to build a good club around.
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When September comes around and the MiLB teams are through with their playoff runs we ought to do a reverse of what they did with their starters at the first of the year and go tandem starters the rest of the year. Pair up Wojo, Martinez, Folty and perhaps Buchanan with the current starters. Limits the IP of them all and keeps our miserable bullpen in the dugout.
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daveb –
Among AL catchers, Castro is 3rd in OPS, Runs scored and HRs, 5th in RBIs.
Defensively, among qualifiers, he is 6th in fielding %, 6th in CS%, last in passed balls and 6th in DWAR (defensive wins against replacement). Again – he is way above average offensively, below average defensively, but there would be quite a few clubs that would rather have him back there.
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